1. Here are facts that should be used to build the Yankees’ Game 1 lineup against Garrett Crochet:
- Paul Goldschmidt hasn’t hit lefties (or anyone) in months. He has one extra-base hit (a double) since August 26.
- Amed Rosario is 3-for-6 with a home run against Crochet, which is as good as it gets against the lefty. Rosario should get the most possible plate appearances until Crochet is removed and then he can be removed as well.
- Ryan McMahon hit .184/.271/.263 against lefties this season. All lefties. Not just Crochet. So if he put up a .534 OPS against lefties with bad lefties included, he can’t play against Crochet. It doesn’t matter how good his glove is or that Max Fried is on the mound. He’s unplayable against lefties.
- Ben Rice is 1-for-8 against Crochet with a double, which may not seem very good, but of the seven outs Rice has made against Crochet, none have been strikeouts. As a lefty, being able to put the ball in play every time against Crochet is impressive. He should be playing.
- Austin Wells homered and doubled off Crochet back in June at Yankee Stadium, so there’s the possibility of success for him against the dominant lefty. Because of the Red Sox’ potential running game, Wells has to play for defensive purposes.
- Jose Caballero had an .813 OPS against lefties this season. He has to play.
- Jazz Chisholm is a putrid matchup against Crochet, even before you factor in the hit by pitch Chisholm suffered on Saturday that kept him out of the lineup on Sunday.
2. Because of all these facts, this is the lineup I proposed for the Yankees for Game 1, knowing full well the actual lineup won’t come close to it:
Amed Rosario, LF
Aaron Judge, RF
Cody Bellinger, CF
Giancarlo Stanton, DH
Anthony Volpe, SS
Jose Caballero, 3B
Ben Rice, 1B
Jazz Chisholm, 2B
Austin Wells, C
This lineup may seem insane because I’m stacking three lefties in a row at the bottom of the order against Crochet, which sets up a magnificent lane for him to get outs, but the disparity in numbers for righties against him and lefties is so great that you need all righties at the top to get them the most plate appearances possible. (Righties have a .654 OPS against him and lefties have a .455 OPS against him.) Get the righties as many plate appearances against him as you can, and then remove them as you see fit. Trent Grisham for Rosario when a righty comes in. McMahon for Caballero or Volpe when a righty comes in. Goldschmidt for Rice for defense when Rice is guaranteed to not bat again.
3. Following the Yankees’ workout at the Yankee Stadium yesterday, it looks like Goldschmidt will be in the lineup, and that means he will likely bat leadoff. This is a problem because Goldschmidt hasn’t hit Crochet (2-for-15) and hasn’t hit anyone — lefties or righties — for months. The narrative he hits lefties well hasn’t been true for a while, and any positive stats he has against lefties are propped up by his early-season performance. Goldschmidt has been on a personal free fall since the beginning of May, and he’s not someone you want to be giving the most plate appearances in a game to at the top of the lineup.
4. The Red Sox’ lineup is full of guys who have never done this before. Here is the Red Sox’ postseason experience for position players:
Alex Bregman: 99 games and 434 plate appearances from 2017 through 2024
Nathaniel Lowe: 18 games and 75 plate appearances in 2020 and 2023
Trevor Story: Five games and 22 plate appearance in 2017 and 2018
Abraham Toro: One game and one plate appearance in 2020
Rob Refsnyder: One game and three plate appearances in 2015
So there’s Bregman, who has been a postseason staple since 2017, Lowe, who had one run two years ago, Story, who hasn’t been in the playoffs in seven years, Toro, who played in one game in front of an empty stadium, and Refsnyder, who last appeared in the playoffs as the starting second baseman for the Yankees in the 2015 wild-card game. Not one position player on the Red Sox played in the 2021 postseason for the Red Sox, which was the last time they played in the postseason.
5. Crochet has never pitched in the playoffs and neither has Game 2 starter Brayan Bello. Aroldis Chapman’s postseason career is defined by losing Game 6 of the 2019 ALCS and Game 5 of the 2020 ALDS for the Yankees.
The Red Sox are a roster of inexperienced postseason players and pitchers. The biggest games most of the roster has ever been involved in were the games this past week when they were trying to clinch a wild-card berth. That’s not to say they won’t play well in the postseason, it’s just that no one knows if they will or not because they have never done it before.
6. Then again, no one really knows if the Yankees will play well in it either. The only bat that can be trusted to show up is Giancarlo Stanton since he always shows up. He can’t be the only one to show up though because Juan Soto isn’t here to carry the club with him. Aaron Judge has to show up.
I keep hearing about how eventually Judge will have the kind of postseason run Alex Rodriguez had after years of struggling to duplicate his regular-season performance in the postseason. If not now, when?
7. The reason Judge is a 33-year-old future Hall of Famer and arguably the greatest right-handed hitter of all time without a championship to his name is because of himself. We know the Yankees go as Judge goes and when Judge doesn’t go, the Yankees don’t go. Look no further than this season:
From Opening Day through June 12, Judge hit .392/.488/.776 from and the Yankees went 42-25 and were atop the American League.
From June 13 through August 23, Judge hit .236/.378/.533 and the Yankees went 23-29 and for a moment fell out of a postseason spot.
From August 24 through the end of the season, Judge hit .349/.513/.743 and the Yankees went 25-8 and finished tied for the best record in the AL with the best run differential in the AL.
The fact that Judge could have a .911 OPS from June 13 through August 23 and the Yankees go 23-29 and fall down the standings is because the Yankees can’t afford for Judge to be just a superstar, he has to be an all-time great. That’s how this roster and lineup are constructed and have been for nearly his entire career. So again, if Judge hits, the Yankees win. If he doesn’t they lose. (Last season was the exception and not the rule because Soto was here to make up for Judge’s postseason shortcomings alongside Stanton.)
8. Judge is going to be put to the postseason test immediately in Game 1. Here are his plate appearances in order against Crochet this season:
Strikeout
Strikeout
Strikeout
Strikeout
Strikeout
Strikeout
Home run
Strikeout
Strikeout
Flyout
Strikeout
Strikeout
Home run
9. I haven’t written much yesterday or today about Fried because I expect him to pitch well because he has to pitch well. If he doesn’t then nothing else matters. If Fried goes out and has a 24-pitch first inning and the Red Sox have a two-run lead before the Yankees bat in the game then just pack up the bats and balls and try again on Wednesday in Game 2. The career 5.10 postseason ERA version of Fried can’t show up. He needs to go out and set the tone and have a clean first inning and give the top of the order a chance to put the pressure on the Red Sox. This type of game is why the Yankees signed Fried and because of that he should be expected to go out there and either best or match Crochet.
10. I’m nervous. How can you not be if you’re a Yankees fan? When I sit down in my seat at Yankee Stadium on Tuesday night I will feel the type of feel only postseason baseball can bring out in baseball fans. I expect the Yankees to win this series because I don’t want to envision this series ending any other way. At the end of today, the Yankees will either be playing for their season tomorrow or playing tomorrow to play on Saturday. It better be the latter because I can’t handle the former.
Last modified: Oct 5, 2025
