The Yankees arrive in Kansas City with the ALDS tied at 1.
Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.
1. Two years ago the Yankees were in this position. They had won Game 1 of the ALDS over the Guardians at the Stadium then after an off day and a rainout, they lost to the Guardians three days later in 10 innings. They went on the road for Game 3 with the ALDS tied at 1.
In Game 3 in Cleveland, the Yankees held a 5-3 lead entering the ninth. Aaron Boone made Clay Holmes unavailable despite Homes telling the media after the game he had told Boone before the game he was available, so Boone let Wandy Peralta begin the ninth after having pitched in the seventh and eighth.
Peralta allowed a one-out double followed by a single and Boone called on Clarke Schmidt to get the final two outs. Schmidt allowed back-to-back singles, which brought the Guardians within a run before getting a huge three-pitch strikeout for the second out. Schmidt got ahead of Oscar Gonzalez 1-2 and was a strike away from giving the Yankees a 2-1 series lead, but instead allowed his third single of the inning, a two-run, walk-off single and the Yankees lost.
2. It was Schmidt’s second career postseason appearance. His first had been the day before in Game 2 when he relieved Jameson Taillon after Taillon gave up the go-ahead run in the 10th. In typical Boone fashion, Schmidt was below Taillon in the manager’s level of trust rankings for Game 2, but then surpassed him for Game 3 and was used to close out a game he failed to close out.
Schmidt is a different pitcher in 2024 than he was in 2022. In 2022, he made only three starts, and through 2022, he had only five career starts to his name. Schmidt became part of the rotation for 2023 and everything clicked for him in the middle of May that season.
Schmidt is a good starting pitcher. He will likely need to be better than “good” in Game 3 with Seth Lugo going for the Royals. He can’t have the type of start Gerrit Cole or Carlos Rodon turned in in Games 1 and 2, as that many runs will unlikely be overcome.
3. Do I trust Schmidt? No, not really. But I don’t trust any Yankees starter. How could you? Neither of their two supposed best starters could get an out in the sixth inning in Games 1 or 2 and their No. 2 starter couldn’t get through four innings. The Yankees already gave the Royals their supposed best and the Royals had no problem creating traffic on the bases and scoring runs.
Despite my lack of trust in Schmidt, I do think he will be fine. His last start of the season in Game 161 against the Pirates was the first time in 16 starts in 2024 he allowed more than three earned runs in a game. It was just the third time in 40 starts he allowed more than three runs in a game. If the Yankees are to lose Game 3 of the ALDS like they did two years ago, I doubt it will be because of Schmidt.
4. If the Yankees lose Game 3, it will be because of the offense. Every October with these Yankees I go in thinking it’s going to be different, and every October it’s not. I want to be optimistic about the offense each postseason, thinking there’s no way they can no-show again, and yet each postseason they no-show again. Through two games they’re running it back and playing all of the old hits: poor situational hitting, a lack of power, running into outs on the bases and failing to hit with runners in scoring position. Every fear I had about these Yankees for the postseason is coming to fruition.
5. Aaron Judge is getting all of the attention for the Yankees’ offensive shortcomings and he should. He’s the highest-paid player on the team. He’s the captain of the team. He’s the one who broke the AL home run record in 2022 and won MVP only to go 1-for-16 with a single in the sweep by the Astros in that season’s ALCS. He’s the one whose name was said in the same breath as Babe Ruth and Barry Bonds this season when he outperformed his own 2022 MVP season, nearly won the Triple Crown and will win the 2024 AL MVP. But he’s the one who came up in Game 1 with runners on second and third and no outs and struck out. He’s the one who came up in Game 2 with runners on first and second and no outs and struck out. He’s the one who is 1-for-7 with an infield single through two games in this series.
6. Going back to that miserable performance of his in the 2022 ALCS, Judge is now 2-for-23 with three walks and eight strikeouts. Unsurprisingly, the Yankees are 1-5 in those games.
If you want to call 23 at-bats and 26 plate appearances a small sample size, go ahead. But that’s what the postseason is: short series and small sample sizes. And for his postseason career, a sample size that is now 207 plate appearances, Judge has a .760 OPS, a number that is 250 points below his career regular-season OPS of 1.010.
7. Prior to the start of the postseason, I wrote:
The dynastic Yankees of the late-‘90s and 2000s won in the postseason because their stars remained stars in October. When the 163rd game came, there was no drop-off in production despite only facing the top teams and elite pitching each game. Look at these regular season vs. postseason career numbers.
Derek Jeter regular season: .310/.377/.440
Derek Jeter postseason: .308/.374/.465
Bernie Williams regular season: .297/.381/.477
Bernie Williams postseason: .275/.371/.480
Paul O’Neill regular season: .288/.363/.470
Paul O’Neill postseason: .284/.363/.465
That hasn’t happened with this Yankees core. When October comes, these Yankees have always disappeared, and Aaron Judge has been as big of a problem as anyone.
Aaron Judge regular season: .288/.406/.604
Aaron Judge postseason: .211/.310/.462
Judge’s postseason slash line has grown worse, now at .208/.311/.449.
The Yankees offense goes as Judge goes. In Yankees wins this season, Judge hit .402/.527/.887 for a 1.415 OPS. In Yankees losses this season, Judge hit .208/.356/.46 for a .793 OPS. When Judge hits, the Yankees win. When Judge doesn’t hit the Yankees lose.
8. As expected the rest of the Yankees aren’t really doing their part to not make it all about Judge, and no one more than Giancarlo Stanton.
I would sit Stanton in Game 3. Stanton is 1-for-8 with a walk in the series and has cost the Yankees two runs with his jogging (at best) on the bases. After Game 1, I wrote about why Stanton’s supposed postseason greatness isn’t so great (unless you remove from the fans from the stands and play the games at a neutral site). The only reason to play him is because you think he can get into a mistake and hit it over the fence. The problem is the level of pitcher he is seeing each at-bat isn’t making mistakes. Stanton assumes every 2-0 or 3-1 pitch is going to be a fastball down the middle and swings like it. That hasn’t happened for him this postseason and likely won’t with Lugo on the mound.
9. Lugo didn’t allow a home run in 14 innings against the Yankees this season. He only allowed 16 for the year, including just one to the 105 batters he faced in September. He faced a league-high 836 batters for the season and gave up 16 home runs, equating to 1.9 percent of the batters he faced hit a home run.
It’s extremely unlikely Lugo is going to allow a home run at Kauffman Stadium in Game 3. (He’s only allowed two home runs there since July.) And because Stanton’s only value to the team is to hit home runs, there’s no reason to use him as the designated hitter. Start Jasson Dominguez there. At least if Dominguez gets on base, he’s capable of stealing a base, running harder than a light jog and isn’t a risk to ruin a rally.
10. Joe Torre always called Game 2 of any series the most important game. In Game 2 you have the opportunity to take a commanding lead or an opportunity to tie the series up. (It’s why Andy Pettitte was always tabbed with starting Game 2 during the glory days.) The Yankees blew their opportunity to take a commanding lead thanks to a disastrous start and a lackluster offensive effort. They can’t afford to have either of those on Wednesday. If they do, they’ll be playing for their season on Thursday.
Last modified: Oct 9, 2024
