After three days off, the ALCS is here.
Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.
1. If the Yankees are to advance to the World Series, their opponent will be a personal problem no matter what. Either they will face the Dodgers, and with my wife being from Los Angeles, the threat of having to live with the Yankees losing to the Dodgers in the World Series and me having to hear about it daily forever looms. Or they will face the Mets, and the threat of the Mets beating the Yankees in the World Series and changing the New York baseball dynamic and hierarchy looms. If the Yankees are to reach the World Series, they better win.
2. To get there, they will first have to eliminate the Guardians for the fourth time since 2017 (2017 ALDS, 2020 wild-card series, 2022 ALDS). I was rooting for the Tigers to win their ALDS matchup because of their impossibly bad offense, but it will be the Guardians, and that’s OK too.
The Yankees have owned the Guardians in recent years and beat up on them in the regular season this year as well. The Yankees went 4-2 against the Guardians this season and one of the two losses was a Caleb Ferguson extra-inning meltdown.
3. I’m confident about the Yankees in this series even with Carlos Rodon being their Game 1 starter.
“Game 1 sets the tone,” Rodon said. “I’m looking forward to being out there again, feeling the energy, and just giving my team the best chance to win.”
Rodon’s ALDS Game 2 start began with him striking out the side in the first, all while walking around the infield between batters like a maniac. He wasn’t stable mentally, emotionally or physically in that start, and it ended up being the only loss the Yankees suffered in the series. Rodon was pulled in the fourth inning of that start, similar to his only other postseason start in the 2021 ALDS with the White Sox against the Astros when he couldn’t get through the third inning. He can’t be that maniacal version of himself in Game 1 of the ALCS. He claims he watched Gerrit Cole’s poise in Game 4 of the ALDS to hopefully learn how to harness the mood-altering swings he experiences from pitch to pitch.
“Hopefully going through his first playoff game here in the Bronx,” Aaron Boone said, “and experiencing all the emotions that you do, there’s something that serves him well in his next time.”
4. The Guardians hit left-handed pitching and so it would have made sense to pitch Clarke Schmidt in Game 1 with Rodon going on the road in Game 3. Boone went with the high-paid veteran. It’s the Yankee Way: owed money trumps production.
Rodon has already banked $50.7 million in two years as a Yankee and is owed $111 million over the next four years. He would be nice if he earned some of that money by pitching well in the remainder of his postseason starts. If he does so and October ends with the Yankees winning the last game he pitches, his six-year, $162 million deal (which looks amazingly regrettable now) would all be worth it.
5. Oswaldo Cabrera and Jon Berti did a fantastic job, both offensively and defensively at first base in the ALDS. Apparently, it wasn’t good enough. Not only is Anthony Rizzo on the ALCS roster, but he’s playing first base and batting eighth in Game 1.
From Opening Day until Rizzo was injured on June 16, he had a .630 OPS in 291 plate appearances. He returned on September 1 and had a .660 OPS in 84 plate appearances. Whenever you can rush a guy with two broken fingers and a .637 OPS in 375 plate appearances back, you have to do it.
6. Cabrera and Berti combined to reach base seven times in 16 plate appearances in the ALDS and played first base flawlessly. There’s no way Rizzo, if healthy, would have posted a .438 on-base percentage in that series and I don’t know that he would have played first base flawlessly given his sloppy play in the field this season. Now add in him having not played in more than two weeks, likely still experiencing some level of pain on those two broken fingers and it’s like what are we doing here? Just play Cabrera or Berti. Here’s to hoping Rizzo isn’t a complete zero at the plate and doesn’t screw up in the field.
7. Here’s also to hoping Aaron Judge puts an end to his miserable postseason career because that’s exactly what it has been: miserable. Judge’s .762 career postseason OPS sits 248 points below his regular-season OPS of 1.010. That needs to change. I’m just not sure it’s going to change against the Guardians.
Here are Judge’s numbers against the Guardians in the postseason:
2017 ALDS: 1-for-20, 16 strikeouts
2020 Wild-Card Series: 1-for-11, four strikeouts
2022 ALDS: 4-for-20, 11 strikeouts
8. Judge has hit three home runs in 12 postseason games against the Guardians, but overall, he’s 6-for-51 with 31 strikeouts. The Yankees have eliminated the Guardians in each of three postseasons Judge has been a part of despite him hitting poorly, but him hitting poorly makes it challenging. He doesn’t have very good career numbers against Game 1 starter Alex Cobb (3-for-12 with a home run), but maybe facing the veteran righty will be what he needs to get going.
9. On the other hand, Juan Soto owns Cobb. Soto is 7-for-11 with a double, two home runs, a walk and two strikeouts against the righty. Like Judge, Soto failed to hit a ball out in the ALDS, but I would think that will change in the ALCS, and could change in the first inning of the first game. Don’t be surprised if Cobb gives Soto an unintentional intentional walk in the first and choose to pitch to Judge. It may be the only time the duo gets to face Cobb with the Guardians likely to go to their vaunted bullpen as quickly as they can. With each win in the postseason, the season gets extended by a day, and that means another game of Soto as a Yankee.
10. The Yankees haven’t won a seven-game series since the 2009 World Series. Since then, they lost the 2010 ALCS (4-2), 2012 ALCS (4-0), 2017 ALCS (4-3), 2019 ALCS (4-2) and 2022 ALCS (4-0). An 0-5 run in the ALCS for the franchise with an abysmal 7-20 record.
The Yankees don’t need to win Game 1 to win the series, but at home, with a rested Rodon and a rested bullpen, the odds are in their favor. Win Game 1 and they can play .500 baseball for six games against an inferior AL Central opponent and reach the World Series. Win Game 1 and they have Cole going in Game 2. Win Game 1 and … that’s all. Win Game 1.
Last modified: Oct 23, 2024
