1. Maybe Will Warren will go out and pitch the game of his life … or maybe the offense will explode for five or six early runs off Ranger Suarez and all this worrying will be for nothing. If neither of those things happens, it will have been a disappointing weekend that could set up a disappointing October.
That’s how I finished the Thoughts after the doubleheader. Warren pitched the best game of his career (lasting at least seven innings for just the third time in 63 career starts), the offense got to Suarez for six runs over 5 1/3, and instead of losing a game in the standings to the Red Sox and losing the head-to-head tiebreaker, the Yankees clinched the first wild card. Yes, that’s right: clinched.
2. With 25 games to play, the Yankees have a five-game lead over the Red Sox because of the tiebreaker. If the Yankees go a meager 13-12 in those games, the Red Sox would have to go 18-7 to pass the Yankees. With 12 of those games against the Angels, Rockies, Mets and Twins, Max Fried back and Aaron Judge expected back within the next two weeks, it’s hard to imagine the Yankees playing that poorly over the final month. (It’s also hard to imagine the Red Sox playing .720 baseball, considering they are 42-57 sandwiched around their historic hot streak.)
3. In the 16-1 win, the Yankees scored 11 runs against actual pitchers and then put up five runs against the Red Sox’ backup shortstop, including home runs from Austin Wells (who homered twice in the eighth inning) and Jose Caballero, both on 49-mph lobs. (Having position players pitch in blowout games is a disgrace. It’s sad that it’s “strategic” now. It’s not Wade Boggs coming in and dazzling with a knuckleball. It’s an embarrassment to the game.)
4. Before the game was a one-sided rout, Heliot Ramos had his first Yankees moment with a three-run home run in a five-run fifth inning. Ramos was in a position to have his big swing because of a controversial call ruled in the Yankees’ favor earlier in the inning. Caballero led off the inning with a single. Jazz Chisholm then hit a ball to center field that was ruled a trap by Ceddanne Rafaela to set up first and second with no outs. Every replay, to me, looked as though the ball was caught, but the Red Sox’ challenge was unsuccessful and the replay room allowed the call on the field to stand. After that, Ali Sanchez laid down a sacrifice bunt to move the runners over and Paul Goldschmidt hit a ground ball up the middle to score them both. Cody Bellinger singled and then Ramos broke the game open. The Yankees added a run in the sixth, one in the seventh and nine in the eighth.
5. The good news is the Yankees won the season series, have a five-game edge over the Red Sox and went 7-2 against the Red Sox around the four-game disaster at Fenway Park at the end of June. The bad news is the Yankees are going to have to play in the Wild Card Series against the Red Sox for a second straight season and possibly didn’t face a single starting pitcher the Red Sox would use in that series. I would expect the Red Sox to use Sonny Gray, Payton Tolle and Garrett Crochet (if he returns and is able to start). If not Crochet, then I guess it would be Jake Bennett, who shut the Yankees down on Friday, outside of the Goldschmidt home run.
6. No matter who ends up pitching, surviving a three-game series against the Red Sox is going to be as painful as it was last October and has been every time they have met in October outside of the 1999 ALCS. I’m not yet mentally, emotionally or physically prepared for it. The two teams have met six times in the playoffs — all in my lifetime — and both teams have advanced three times with the Yankees winning 14 games and the Red Sox winning 13 games.
7. And they are going to meet in October, because if I’m going to call the race for the first wild card over, I have to call the division over as well. I guess I already did that when I wrote the Thoughts titled Division Race About Done three weeks ago. At the time the Rays were 71-46 and the Yankees were 66-52. Since then, the Rays have gone 11-8 and the Yankees have gone 12-7. Three weeks and 19 games have come off the schedule and the Yankees have made up a single game. It’s just not going to happen unless the Rays lose something like 16 or more of their remaining 26 games.
8. The Padres blew a three-run lead in the seventh inning in a loss to the Rays on Saturday and then blew a two-run lead in the ninth inning on Sunday. It’s hard to be upset with the Padres for being shit when the Yankees couldn’t take care of their own business against the Rays this season (the Yankees are 3-6 against the Rays) or really anyone for two months, but the Yankees better sweep the Padres next weekend like the Rays just did this weekend.
9. So it’s looking like the Yankees’ postseason path in 2026 is going to be a lot like 2025: host the Red Sox for a three-game series, and if they survive that, they get to go on the road for the ALDS with their rotation out of whack to play an opponent they have trouble beating in a venue they have a hard time winning in. It’s less than ideal. That’s what happens when you don’t win the division. The Yankees’ only path now is to sweep the four-game series against the Rays in late September and play one game better than them in their other 21 games.
10. Next up is a West Coast trip to Anaheim and San Diego. Three straight 9:38 start times and a 9:40 start time. It’s going to be a long week of late nights, but it will be easier to handle if the Yankees can beat up on an Angels team that is the worst in all of baseball and a Padres team that just pooped their pants against the Rays. Couple that with the Mets and Rangers beating the Rays and I will gladly trade sleep to cut some games off the division deficit to begin September.
Last modified: Aug 30, 2026
