Tony Romo – Keefe To The City

Oct 9, 2015

NFL Week 5 Picks

So far this season I have avoided the one week that could ruin or destroy a picks record for the year. I’ll need to avoid it again in Week 5 where the lines are the most challenging they have been yet.

The Giants are good. They’re certainly better than their 2-2 record says they are (sorry, Bills Parcells). And if not for the still inconceivable decision making in Weeks 1 and 2, they would be 4-0 and sitting atop the NFC East with a two-game lead. Unfortunately, the Giants didn’t run out the clock on the Cowboys and didn’t try to put the Falcons away, and through 25 percent of the season, they’re tied with the Cowboys and Redskins at 2-2.

But that’s Giants football. No matter the year, the season, the players, the coaches or the front office, that’s Giants football and nothing will ever come easy. The should-have-been wins that turned into losses to the Cowboys and Falcons and the should-have-been-blowouts that turned into nerve-racking wins against the Redskins and Bills proved this team will never change. Never. All four games this season have been perfect depictions of the history of the New York Football Giants and somehow there are still 12 more to go. I don’t know where this season is going to take us, but I do know wherever it’s going, it’s going to need to be accompanied by alcohol.

I didn’t think my 13-3 pace from Week 3 would continue for the rest of the season, so I expected the kind of 7-7-1 Week 4 that occurred. So far this season I have avoided the one week that could ruin or destroy a picks record for the year. I’ll need to avoid it again in Week 5 where the lines are the most challenging they have been yet.

(Home team in caps)

HOUSTON -2 over Indianapolis
Andrew Luck missed his first career game on Sunday and now this week, on a short week, both Luck and Matt Hasselbeck are questionable for Thursday Night Football. The Texans have been bad, all three of their losses have been by at least a touchdown and they have a quarterback controversy that started in training camp and hasn’t been resolved 25 percent of the way through the season. If I knew that Luck was playing, or even Hasselbeck, I would take the Colts and feel somewhat confident in my pick despite not believing in the Colts at all. But here I am taking the team I promised myself I wouldn’t take again last week as the Falcons were scoring touchdown after touchdown after touchdown.

Jacksonville +3 over TAMPA BAY
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Jaguars fan or a Buccaneers fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Thank about that.

TENNESSEE +2.5 over Buffalo
How is it that the Bills are still living off their Week 1 rout of the Colts even with the Colts being outed as a fraud team? The Bills’ stock can’t be high because of what happened two weeks ago in Miami against what is now a 1-3 Dolphins team that fired their head coach this week. So the Bills are giving points on the road as a 2-2 team with their best two players (LeSean McCoy and Sammy Watkins) having missed last week and having not practiced since. The wheels are falling off a Rex Ryan team and I can’t help but think I have seen this story play out before.

BALTIMORE -6.5 over Cleveland
When the Ravens go on a run and reach the postseason to increase the chances of an 0-3 team reaching the postseason, we can only thank Josh Scobee for keeping the Ravens alive. Scobee missed two field goals in Week 4, which led Mike Tomlin to not trust him in overtime, and ultimately led to a Ravens game-winning field goal. Now Scobee is no longer a Steeler after missing two field goals in the Steelers’ Week 1 loss to the Patriots and two more against the Ravens. The Ravens’ season should be over, but it’s not, and now they play the Browns and 49ers back-to-back and will be 3-3 heading into Monday Night Football at Arizona in Week 7.

ATLANTA -7.5 over Washington
Last week I said, “I don’t really think the Falcons are good,” and then they went out and put up 48 on the Texans. Now putting up 48 on the Texans might not be as impressive as it would have been before the season started when people thought the Texans’ defense would be among the best in the league, but 48 is 48, and 4-0 is 4-0. Now that the Redskins are 2-2 and very much alive in the NFC East, I now need to spend time and energy rooting against them, and I won’t have to spend so much of either if the Falcons can take care of business at home once again.

KANSAS CITY -9 over Chicago
The Chiefs have lost three straight games and they have given up 105 points in those three games. Now they return home with their season on the line and the gift of the Bears coming to Arrowhead.

New Orleans +5 over PHILADELPHIA
Like the Ravens, the Saints’ winless season was saved in primetime with an 80-yard touchdown in overtime moments after they let Brandon Weeden march down the field and pick their defense apart the way Tony Romo did to the Giants on Sunday Night Football in Week 1.

GREEN BAY -9.5 over St. Louis
I was scared that I wasn’t doing enough financially to take advantage of the Packers’ early-season lines. Sure, the Packers haven’t blown out any team yet with wins of 8, 10, 10 and 14, but they have covered all four of their games so far, and I figured Vegas would start to increase Packers’ lines, especially home ones, enough that it would make people question whether or not they should take the Packers. They didn’t.

Seattle +3 over CINCINNATI
Even though the Bengals are 4-0 and even though their defense has held opponents to 24-or-less points in every game and even though the Seahawks could be 1-3 if the Monday Night Football officials new the rules of the sport they are officiating and even though Marshawn Lynch is questionable and even though Russell Wilson has a fumbling problem, I’m still taking the Seahawks here. Why? Because I made a promise to myself to stick to the “Just Say No to the B’s” campaign.

Arizona -3 over DETROIT
The Lions are 0-4, and if not for an incorrect call on Monday night, their season could have been saved. But their season is over. The Lions return home as a team that is on its way to making it impossible to know how to properly pick their Thanksgiving Day game and they’re returning home to face a Cardinals team that was embarrassed last week and will be looking to avenge a sloppy loss.

NEW ENGLAND -9.5 over Dallas
The Patriots off a bye week against a team without their quarterback and star wide receiver. That’s it. That’s all you need to know.

Denver -5 over OAKLAND
Since Peyton Manning went to the Broncos, the team has been about him and the offense, and in this day and age, that’s exactly what you want your team to be about: the quarterback and his receivers. But the 2015 Broncos are more about their defense than they are their offense, which is saying a lot about a team that has Manning (even at 39), Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. The Broncos have allowed 69 points in four games this season and 14 of those points came off Manning passes that were intercepted and returned for touchdowns, so the Broncos’ defense has really allowed 55 points in four games. I don’t think the Raiders’ offense is ready for this matchup.

NEW YORK GIANTS -7 over San Francisco
The Giants don’t suck. That’s been a big difference in having to turn to football, and hockey, now that the Yankees’ season is over. The last two miserable Yankees seasons ended only to have me watch two bad Giants teams try to fill my sports void, but this year, my post-Yankees sports life has so far given me a Rangers’ opening-night win in Chicago over the Blackhawks and now that that needs to carry over into the weekend and the Giants’ second-to-last primetime game of the season.

Aside from their Week 1 win over the Vikings in which the Vikings looked like an unprepared and lost team, the 49ers have lost three straight and have been outscored 101-28 with just 10 points scored in their last two games combined. They are a bad team that keeps resting their potential star running back, hoping to save him for a rainy day that likely isn’t going to come this season. If the Giants are as good as the near 4-0 start they could have gotten off to, then this will be the fourth straight game the 49ers that will leave people wondering how a Colin Kaepernick-led team was on the doorstep of winning the Super Bowl and now they are … well, this.

SAN DIEGO -3.5 over Pittsburgh
Forever, I wrote about the Inside the Superdome Saints and the Outside the Superdome Saints. Well, those Saints don’t exist anymore. There’s just the Saints now and they’re not good not matter where they play. But the Chargers seem like they have taken over the responsibility of being a completely different team at home and on the road, and more specifically, in the Pacific Time Zone and outside the Pacific Time Zone.

Last week: 7-7-1
Season: 36-25-2

Blogs • Giants

Oct 1, 2015

NFL Week 4 Picks

After surviving Week 2, Week 3 was one for the history books, but now the bar has been set to try to continue to produce equally successful weeks. It’s not an easy job, but someone has to do it.

The good part about your team playing on Thursday Night Football is that you only have to wait four days until the team’s next game. The bad part about your team playing on Thursday Night Football is that you then have to wait 10 days until they play again. But that’s not necessarily bad for the Giants since their early-season Thursday game serves as nearly a bye week, giving them time to rest and prepare for the Bills.

The Giants are in a perfect position to go on a run and take control of the NFC East with Tony Romo and Dez Bryant out for a couple months, the Eagles having no identity and a bad offense with a greatly underachieving DeMarco Murray and the Redskins being the Redskins. After the Week 1 meltdown in Dallas, I figured that loss would eventually mean the Giants would have to battle for a wild-card berth, but the NFC East once again is proving to be a gongshow for another season, and that’s exactly what the Giants need.

Last week was a memorable one. A 13-3 week with the picks that included a Giants win over the Redskins is about as good as it gets when it comes to the always unpredictable NFL. After surviving Week 2, Week 3 was one for the history books, but now the bar has been set to try to continue to produce equally successful weeks. It’s not an easy job, but someone has to do it.

(Home team in caps)

PITTSBURGH +3 over Baltimore
Michael Vick doesn’t really want to play football anymore. He wants to collect a paycheck to practice during the week and then watch Steelers games from the sidelines on Sundays (and sometimes Mondays and a Thursday). It was the same story when he was with the Jets and when he finally had to go into a game, he looked like someone who hadn’t prepared to play an actual snap for the season. But even for as bad as Vick has looked and has been, the Ravens are worse. They are 0-3 for the first time under John Harbaugh, their defense has been embarrassed and their offense has been non-existent. Aside from all of that, you always take the points in Steelers-Ravens games. It’s just the smart thing to do.

Last season, the Ravens won 26-6 and the Steelers won 43-23. In 2013, the Steelers won 19-16 and the Ravens won 22-20. In 2012, the Ravens won 13-10 and the Steelers won 23-20. In 2011, the Ravens won 35-7 and 23-20. In 2010, the Ravens won 17-14 and the Steelers won 13-10. In 2009, the Ravens won 20-17 in overtime and the Steelers won 23-20. In 2008, the Steelers won 23-20 in overtime and 13-9.

Last season was an anomaly, but including last season, in the last 14 meetings between the two teams, 10 of the games have been decided by three points or less and eight of them have been decided by exactly three points. Even without Ben Roethlisberger, you have to take the Steelers at home getting 3.

New York Jets -2 over MIAMI
Last week, I said the following about the Jets.

Now not only are the Jets not going to start the season 1-3, they might be 4-0 heading into their bye and with the Redskins on the schedule in Week 6, they might be 5-0 heading to New England. Nearly five years after we got the 9-2 Jets against the 9-2 Patriots on Monday Night Football, we might get the 5-0 Jets against the 5-0 Patriots this season.

So how did they repay my positivity about them? By losing at home to the Eagles, which screwed up the NFC East even more and hurt the Giants, in a game that included one of the dumbest decisions I have ever seen by Brandon Marshall on an unnecessary lateral that turned into a fumble. It felt like the same old Jets and after that fumble I expected the camera to pan to the sidelines and for Rex Ryan to be standing there.

But Rex isn’t there and Todd Bowles is and it was his first bad game as Jets head coach even if he couldn’t control Marshall’s decision making or Ryan Fitzpatrick’s ineffectiveness. And even thought the Jets looked awful in a home loss, they won’t spiral out of control the way they would have if Rex were still there. That’s partly because of Bowles and partly because the Dolphins are atrocious.

So far the Dolphins barely got past the Redskins (who are 1-2) in Week 1, lost to the Jaguars (who are 1-2 and lost to the Patriots 51-17) in Week 2 and were run out of their own building by the Bills in Week 3. Here’s what I said about the Dolphins in Week 1:

For the last few years, we have been hearing about how the Dolphins will challenge the Patriots in the AFC East and each time they have failed. This year, the Dolphins are supposed to be even better and once again challenge the Patriots and reach the postseason for the first time since 2008.

Well, the Dolphins are once again an underachieving and mediocre team, and mediocre might be generous. A week after they couldn’t win a division game at home, actually scratch that … A week after they couldn’t even compete in a division game at home, they’re now going to go across the Atlantic and beat the Jets on a neutral field. OK, sure.

Jacksonville +9 over INDIANAPOLIS
The best thing to happen in Week 3 was the Jaguars getting blown out in New England, so that this line would be made too high, and it is. The Colts are a bad team that celebrated their Week 3 win over the Titans the way they would have likely celebrated their AFC Championship win over the Patriots had they won (or even made it a game). The Jaguars aren’t good, but neither are the Colts, and for the Colts to be giving 9 points to any team after back-to-back losses to open the season and barely pulling out a two-point win in Tennessee. Despite being favorites in their first three games, the Colts have yet to cover, considering they lost two of them, and I’m continuing to sell hard on the Colts.

Houston +7 over ATLANTA
I don’t really think the Falcons are good. That isn’t exactly something normal to say about an undefeated 3-0 team with two road wins already on the season, but like saying goes, “It’s not about who you play, it’s about when you play them.” So far the Falcons got the inept Eagles at home in Week 1, the Giants’ clock management problems in Week 2 and a Tony Romo- and Dez Bryant-less Cowboys team in Week 3. The Falcons deserve credit for winning all three games and for coming from behind down multiple possessions in the last two, but those aren’t exactly impressive wins and even with Julio Jones catching everything thrown within 10 feet of him, the Falcons just aren’t anything special. They might beat the Texans and improve to 4-0, but they aren’t going to do it by blowing them out because that’s not who the Falcons are.

Carolina -3.5 over TAMPA BAY
The Panthers are the most under-the-radar 3-0 team ever. I had to check to make sure they were 3-0 because that’s how little I have heard about them and their undefeated start to the season. Even though their wins are against Jacksonville, Houston and New Orleans, they’re still wins and the Panthers have the luxury of playing in the NFC South where only Atlanta will give them any sort of competition. I might shy away from picking the Panthers if they were being talked about and hyped as much as any other 3-0 team would, but as long as the Panthers continue to go unnoticed, there’s nothing to be worried about with a potential trap line.

New York Giants +5.5 over BUFFALO
The return of Victor Cruz had me dreaming of the possibilities of Odell Beckham Jr. and Cruz being unstoppable since we have never really seen the two play together. (The duo played just one game together last season before Cruz injured his knee.) But after suffering a setback with his calf in practice on Wednesday, Cruz probably won’t play again this week in Buffalo, and if he doesn’t, he will have already missed 25 percent of the season.

On the Bills’ side, Rex Ryan told Mike Francesa on Wednesday that both LeSean McCoy and Sammy Watkins are likely out for the game. That leaves the game pretty much up to the Bills’ defense, which let the Patriots put up 507 yards against them at home, so the aura of Ralph Wilson Stadium being a touch place to play just because the Colts couldn’t do anything isn’t exactly true.

Oakland -3 over CHICAGO
When was the last time the Raiders were a road favorite? LOOK IT UP. This line feels way too low after watching Jimmy Clausen and the Bears punt on all 10 of their possessions against the Seahawks last week. I’m not sure how the Bears are ever going to score with Clausen at quarterback unless Robbie Gould starts drilling 70-yard field goals. But even then, Clausen would have to move the ball to the Bears’ 47 and I’m not sure if that’s possible. After trading Jared Allen, it’s clear the Bears are about to begin a fire sale and it has been suggested that they trade Matt Forte, who is in the last year of his contract and approaching 30. If Forte wasn’t in the last year of his contract, I would advise the Bears to make him inactive for every game for the rest of the season and save his legs for next year, but since he is, they should trade him. Why should the Bears have an elite running back? It’s like a 60-win baseball team having an elite closer. Trade Forte.

WASHINGTON +3.5 over Philadelphia
Kirk Cousins says he couldn’t sleep over his non-touchdown passes to Jordan Reed on Thursday Night Football last week. That’s good because it shows Cousins’ head is in the right place, but it’s not good because he needs his sleep to win this game.

I’m rooting for the Redskins to win because they are less of a threat to the Giants in the NFC East and a Redskins win would give Philadelphia two division losses. I want the NFC East to become a two-team race between the Giants and Cowboys and without Romo and Bryant for a while, the Giants will have the opportunity to take a commanding lead. Will they take advantage of this opportunity? Of course not. But I can dream.

Kansas City +4.5 over CINCINNATI
The old me would see this line, remember that the Chiefs are 1-2 and Ryan Mallett starting over Brian Hoyer in Week 1 from being 0-3, and remember that the Bengals are 3-0 and instantly pick the Bengals. But not the new me. Not the me that has created a “Just Say No to the B’s” campaign. Those B’s are the Bengals, Bears and Browns. So I’m saying no to the Bengals and there isn’t an amount of peer pressure that could get me to change my mind.

SAN DIEGO -7.5 over Cleveland
If you just read my rule about the B’s in the last pick then you already know. However, there is one exception to that rule and that is when Johnny Manziel starts, the Browns aren’t part of it. Johnny Football is once again on the bench, so I’m saying no to the Browns and I hope they lose in a rout.

Green Bay -9.5 over SAN FRANCISCO
Carlos Hyde ran all over the Vikings in Week 1 and had the best week of any running back in the NFL in his debut as the 49ers starter. The next week he got hurt against the Steelers and when he was ready to come back in, he was held out because the score was lopsided. Last week, due to another lopsided score, he was held out for most of the game again. This week, the 49ers are playing the best team and the best offense in the NFC. There’s a good chance we’re headed for another game in which Hyde watches from the sidelines to preserve his health and legs for future games. There are going to be a lot of games like that for the 49ers this season, but the problem is that Hyde is the 49ers offense, so without him they don’t have a chance.

DENVER -7 over Minnesota
The Vikings are 2-1 thanks to two home wins, but I didn’t like what I saw from them in their season opener on the road in San Francisco against a team that has been outscored 90-25 in the last two weeks. I don’t know how I’m supposed to take the Vikings in Denver against Peyton Manning and that defense and feel confident with a 7-point spread. I’m going to have to see Teddy Bridgewater and the Vikings offense a little more away from Minnesota before I start to back the Vikings on the road. (Sorry, Britt. Don’t worry, I like sleeping on the couch.)

ARIZONA -7 over St. Louis
The Cardinals are the real deal. Two years ago, they were a 10-win team that didn’t make the playoffs. Last season, they were a true contender in the NFC until Carson Palmer got hurt and Drew Stanton got hurt and they were left starting Ryan Lindley, who threw for 82 yards, in their playoff game at Carolina. Bruce Arians and the Cardinals deserve better and so far this season they have proven that they are at the top of the NFC with the Packers and are better than their their division rival Seahawks. I’m going to enjoy taking the Cardinals for a touchdown or less for as long as Vegas wants to give away a free pick and free money.

NEW ORLEANS -5 over Dallas
It’s the possibly Drew Brees-less Saints against the Tony Romo-less Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. NBC must be thrilled about the state of these two teams for their primetime game though probably not as thrilled as Brees was when he found out Jimmy Graham was traded to Seattle.

The Superdome Saints are no more. When you lose to Jameis Winston and the Buccaneers in the Superdome, that theory goes away. Instead the Saints are now an 0-3 team with a loss this week away from having their season over with 75 percent of the schedule remaining. If there’s any truth to the idea of a desperate team coming to play and winning a game, this is it. What better way to turn your season around than on national TV in the manic Superdome with Drew Brees returning to the field.

SEATTLE -10 over Detroit
I’m not sure if Jim Caldwell’s job is in trouble with the Lions being winless since I’m not sure how Jim Caldwell was hired to be the Lions head coach to begin with. Maybe that postseason appearance last year is enough to buy Caldwell some time, but that time might be erased in the coming weeks. After the Lions lose in Seattle, they host Arizona, Chicago and Minnesota and then go to Kansas City before their Week 9 bye. That has 1-8, maybe 2-7 at best, written all over it.

Last week: 13-3-0
Season: 29-18-1

Blogs • Giants

Sep 24, 2015

NFL Week 3 Picks

The key to the picks season is surviving Week 2. A 7-9 Week 2 isn’t anything to be excited about, but it’s enough to survive, and set up a very important Week 3.

The Giants have been a losing team for a long time. They’re 0-2 right now. They were 6-10 last season. They were 7-9 in 2013, and at 6-2 in 2012 with a chance to win the NFC East, they finished 3-5. Put all of that together and you have a 16-26 record over the last 42 games over parts of four seasons with obviously no playoff appearances. Four of those 16 wins came against the Redskins as the Giants have gone 12-26 against teams not named the Redskins since Week 9 of 2012.

Tom Coughlin survived the second-half collapse of 2012 because of the Super Bowl XLII win the year before. He survived a losing season in 2013 and again in 2014 because of Super Bowl XLII and XLVI. But after this now lengthy stretch of losing, time is running out on Tom Coughlin and his Giants era, which is in its 12th year. The Giants aren’t going to fire Coughlin in the middle of the season if the losing continues and if the team is unable to compete in the wide-open and horrible NFC East, but this will be the beginning of the end of the Coughlin era if the Giants don’t start winning and change the late-game losing culture they have established.

Luckily for the Giants, at 0-2, they’re facing the one team they have been able to count for wins in recent years: the Redskins.

The key to the picks season is surviving Week 2. A 7-9 Week 2 isn’t anything to be excited about, but it’s enough to survive.

(Home team in caps)

NEW YORK GIANTS -3.5 over Washington
In any other division, at 0-2 with a divisional loss, the Giants would be in serious trouble. But in the NFC East, where the 2-0 Cowboys are without Tony Romo and Dez Bryant and the 0-2 Eagles are a disaster and the 1-1 Redskins are the Redskins, the Giants aren’t in the worst place. Sure, it would be nice if they could finish in the final minutes of the fourth quarter and be 2-0 right now, but the season isn’t over … yet. If they lose at home on Thursday Night Football to the Redskins, then yes, the season is over. Unfortunately, in the NFC East, even at 0-3, the Giants probably aren’t even out of it, but I’m going to pretend they will be.

Pittsburgh -2 over ST. LOUIS
The Steelers are getting Le’Veon Bell back in time to face the vaunted home defense of the Rams. I say “home defense” because when you go to Washington and allow 24 points and lose by 14, it doesn’t matter that you beat the two-time defending NFC champions in the season opener. Along with the Patriots, the Steelers are at the top of the AFC right now and were even before the return of Bell. Now that Bell is back and with Martavis Bryant back in two weeks, the Steelers are only going to get stronger. Even though I could care less about the Steelers, I care about the AFC having at least one or two teams that are somewhat good and could prevent the Patriots from yet another easy walk through the postseason, so that’s why I want, no I need the Steelers to be good.

MINNESOTA -2.5 over San Diego
The Chargers opened the season in San Diego against Detroit. Then they flew to Cincinnati to play the Bengals. Then they flew back to San Diego. Now they are flying back to Minnesota to play the Vikings. That’s a lot of travel in the last nine or 10 days once this game kicks off on Sunday, which will have included going three time zones east, three time zones back west and then two time zones east again in that span.

HOUSTON -6.5 over Tampa Bay
Aside from cutting Charles James in training camp and naming Brian Hoyer the starter over Ryan Mallett, Hard Knocks made me want to like the Texans. But after losing their first two games to the Chiefs and Panthers, it’s getting harder to like the Texans and believe in them. This is it for me and the Texans. They have cost me two picks already this season and if their defense can’t hold a rookie quarterback without his best receiver at full strength then I’m done with the Texans.

NEW YORK JETS -3 over Philadelphia
I originally thought if the Jets didn’t win against the Browns in Week 1 that there would be a real chance they could be 1-3 heading into their Week 4 bye. That’s the danger of trying to predict wins and losses in the NFL before the season. The Jets’ Weeks 2-4 matchups at Indianapolis, against the Philadelphia and at Miami looked like an early-season gauntlet. But in two weeks, the Colts have proven they haven’t improved since last season, the Eagles are an 0-2 mess and the Dolphins are once again all preseason hype. Now not only are the Jets not going to start the season 1-3, they might be 4-0 heading into their bye and with the Redskins on the schedule in Week 6, they might be 5-0 heading to New England. Nearly five years after we got the 9-2 Jets against the 9-2 Patriots on Monday Night Football, we might get the 5-0 Jets against the 5-0 Patriots this season.

CAROLINA -6.5 over New Orleans
I used to believe in the Saints inside the Superdome no matter what the line was. But after losing five home games last season and losing to the Buccaneers at home last week, that theory is officially over. The Saints are a bad team and they aren’t getting any better and it might be getting close to a complete change in New Orleans. The problem is the Saints have been so inconsistent and winning enough to not bottom out and force an overhaul. This season, they’re 0-2. Last season, they were 7-9. In 2013, they were 11-5 and won a playoff game. In 2012, they were 7-9. In 2011, they were 13-3 and won a playoff game. In 2010, they were 11-5 and lost their first playoff game. The Saints have had just enough success to keep their core in tact even if they haven’t been good enough to win it all since winning it all in 2009.

NEW ENGLAND -14 over Jacksonville
The only team I ever feel confident picking to cover or win in New England is the Giants. The Jaguars’ win at home against the Dolphins was nice and they seem to be finally headed in the right direction without a winning season since 2007, but this is a terrible spot for them to be in. The Patriots just went to Buffalo and put up 507 yards on the Bills’ defense and left Bills fans devastated. Now they return home where they have lost like three games in 15 years and are facing a young and inexperienced Jaguars team. The Patriots will be 3-0 heading into their bye week before going to Dallas to face the Tony Romo- and Dez Bryant-less Cowboys and then going to Indianapolis to try to hang 80 on the Colts for Deflategate. The Patriots are going to be 5-0 before their Week 7 game against the Jets and that’s the next time I will have to really think about the Patriots not covering.

BALTIMORE -2.5 over Cincinnati
The Ravens, along with the Saints and Rams destroyed survivor pools last week. I wasn’t expecting the Ravens to go to Oakland where the Bengals had ran the Raiders out of their own building a week before and lose. The Ravens are in unchartered territory under John Harbaugh at 0-2 and have to play the undefeated Bengals this week and then go to Pittsburgh on a short week next week. This is it for the 2015 Ravens this week and to think in January they were blowing two 14-point leads against the Patriots away from playing the Colts in the AFC Championship Game, which basically would have meant they were going to play in the Super Bowl.

Oakland +3.5 over CLEVELAND
After not having “that game” last week, this game is “that game” this week …

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Raiders fan or a Browns fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Thank about that.

Mike Pettine deciding to name Josh McCown the starting quarterback this week after Johnny Manziel led the team to a win last week is the most Browns decision ever. Josh McCown is a 36-year-old journeyman, who has never been good. He isn’t going to lead the Browns to the playoffs this year and unless Pettine knows 100 percent that his job is safe with another losing season and that he can hope Manziel will be the full-time starter next season, this decision makes no sense. Actually, it makes no sense anyway. After sitting behind Brian Hoyer last season and McCown this season, it’s not like he’s exactly learning from some former MVP or an all-time quarterback or even a decent one. Manziel continuing to sit on the bench is stunting his growth and preventing the Browns from moving on and improving. I hope the Browns are embarrassed by the Raiders.

TENNESSEE +3.5 over Indianapolis
I hate the Colts for starting Deflategate and making the last eight months unbearable after they served as a red carpet in the AFC Championship Game for the Patriots to get into the Super Bowl. So it puts a smile on my face to see Andrew Luck with five interceptions in the first two games and a very average roster around him playing that way. Maybe I will eventually have enough confidence in the Colts to pick them, and maybe that eventually is next week at home against the Jaguars, but for now, I’m selling the Colts hard just like everyone else seems to be.

Atlanta -2 over DALLAS
The Falcons in a dome outside of Georgia aren’t exactly the same as the Falcons inside the Georgia Dome, but they’re certainly better than the Cowboys without their quarterback, without their top wide receiver and their all-time tight end suffering from various injuries being so banged up he might not play.

SEATTLE -15 over Chicago
A 15-point line in the NFL is a rare occurrence. We saw it on nearly a weekly basis during the Patriots’ 2007 season, but it’s very, very, very hard to get a two-touchdown line, especially in Week 3. It takes a perfect storm of events to get a line like this, and in this instance, the perfect storm is the Seahawks being 0-2 and returning home for the first time since the NFC Championship Game and the Bears being a bad 0-2 team without their starting quarterback and top wide receiver heading to the hardest place for a road team to win in the NFL. The Seahawks are going to win this game and most likely won’t give up a single point. This line is too low.

Buffalo +3 over MIAMI
The Dolphins are the biggest frauds in the NFL. I’m sick and tired of annually hearing how this is the Dolphins year and this is the season they are going to challenge the Patriots for the AFC East. After squeaking out a win against the Redskins in Week 1, the Dolphins lost to the Jaguars in Week 2, blowing what was the easiest two-week schedule to open the season in the league. I’m now rooting against the Dolphins.

Denver -3.5 over DETROIT
I was worried about Peyton Manning before the season started and his Week 1 performance made me worry even more. Then the first half of his Week 2 performance made me worry even more. But during the second half of the Broncos’ win at Arrowhead, Manning didn’t look like his old self, but he looked like a guy that figured out how to play and win with what’s left of his arm and abilities. If he can work his magic after traveling to Kansas City on a short week to win on Thursday Night Football, he can certainly win in perfect conditions inside Ford Field against an 0-2 and headed nowhere Lions team.

GREEN BAY -7 over Kansas City
The Packers are the best team in the NFC and their come-from-behind and convincing win over the Seahawks in Week 2 made me realize the NFC is likely to run through Lambeau Field this winter. These touchdown-or-less lines for the Packers aren’t going to be around much longer with the way they’re playing, so you better get in on them before they’re gone.

Last week: 7-9-0
Season: 16-15-1

Blogs • Giants

Jan 9, 2015

NFL Divisional Round Picks

It’s the supposed best week of the playoffs. Four games over two days with the 1-seeds in play. Either the hated (at least hated on this site) Patriots or the scummy Ravens will lose, either

It’s the supposed best week of the playoffs. Four games over two days with the 1-seeds in play. Either the hated (at least hated on this site) Patriots or the scummy Ravens will lose, either Tony Romo or Aaron Rodgers will go home and either Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck’s season will be over. And, oh yeah, the Panthers’ season is over because they are going to get run out of Seattle.

I ended the regular season two games over .500, needing to go just 5-6 in the playoffs to finish over .500. After last week’s 1-3 disaster thanks to believing in Ryan Lindley on the road, the untrustworthy Steelers and a Bengals team led by Andy Dalton and Marvin Lewis playing without A.J. Green and Jermaine Gresham on the road, I’m making things interesting when they don’t need to be. I deserved to go 1-3 with choices like that.

This week will be different because it has to be. There is too much on the line when it comes to my picks and My Super Bowl XLIX Dilemma and an eventual champion.

(Home team in caps)

Baltimore +7 over NEW ENGLAND
The Ravens’ wins this season have come against Pittsburgh (2), Cleveland (2), Carolina, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Tennessee, New Orleans, Miami and Jacksonville. Their losses have come against Cincinnati (2), Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, San Diego and Houston. The Ravens have gone 2-6 against winning teams, and both of their wins came against their rival in the Steelers. They are the 6-seed in the AFC and the only reason they were able to sneak into the playoffs is because half of their schedule this season was played against the AFC South and NFC South. So why does anyone think the Ravens can beat the Patriots or even keep the game close? The real answer is I have no idea, but for me, I have no choice other than to hope the Ravens can keep the game close and to hope that they can win the game outright.

It pains to me to have to root for the Ravens, considering that they’re probably the scummiest organization in all of professional sports (yes, even scummier than the Red Sox), but like I said, I have no choice. The Patriots are two wins from getting back to the Super Bowl and three wins from ending what will be a 10-year drought if they are eliminated this week or next week or lose in three weeks in Super Bowl XLIX. But no matter what happens today, if the Ravens win or the Patriots win, we all lose. Either the Patriots are one step closer to doing something they have failed to do for the last nine seasons, or the Ravens will be that much closer to becoming champions in a season in which all of the karma in the world should be going against them.

SEATTLE -11.5 over Carolina
This should be the 4:30 game on Saturday because people have things to do at that time on Saturday and missing this game and checking later to see the Seahawks won by 30 points is acceptable.

Last week, Jon Gruden seemed amazed every time the Panthers made a mental or physical mistake against the Cardinals. Gruden couldn’t believe that the Panthers could be so bad or so careless with the football in a playoff game. And each time Gruden’s voice hit astonishing levels, I so badly wanted Mike Tirico to interrupt him and remind him that the Panthers are a 7-8-1 team that would have been focused on their draft position rather than a playoff game if they had played in any other division. Five of the other division winners finished with 12 wins (4.5 more wins than the Panthers) and the other two finished with 11 (3.5 more wins than the Panthers).

The Seahawks won 12 games, a year after winning 13 games and three more in the playoffs. They have gone 28-7 over the last two years and after starting 3-3 this season, they are 9-1 over their last 10 and have given up a total of 39 points in the last six (6.5 points per game).

The Seahawks are the best home team and the best team in the NFL and they are going to win the Super Bowl. The Panthers might not score on Saturday night.

GREEN BAY -6 over Dallas
The game of the week played between two teams I hate with one having to move on and play for a trip to Glendale. It’s a nightmare situation like the Red Sox and Angels meeting in the ALDS or the Flyers and Devils meeting in the Eastern Conference semifinals.

The Cowboys were the 11th-ranked team in My Super Bowl XLIX Dilemma, just ahead of the Patriots. (The only team that could challenge the Patriots for the top spot is the Eagles.) Their season should have ended last Sunday against the Lions before the refs took over the game, screwed the Lions over on the pass interference and then did everything other than carry the ball into the end zone themselves on the Cowboys’ go-ahead (and eventual game-winning) drive.

The Cowboys don’t deserve to still be playing football and the Packers at Lambeau will make sure of that.

DENVER -7.5 over Indianapolis
I used to think if the Broncos could win the 1-seed in the AFC and host the AFC Championship Game then the Patriots wouldn’t have a red carpet to the Super Bowl. But ever since the Broncos were 6-1 and went to Gillette Stadium in Week 9 and left with a 43-21 loss, they haven’t been the same team. Sure, they were 6-2 after their loss to the Patriots and they went 6-2 over the final eight weeks of the season, but something has been off about the Broncos.

Unfortunately, I think the best chance of the Patriots getting eliminated before the Super Bowl is this week against the Ravens and that’s not a very good chance considering the Ravens couldn’t beat a winning team all season not named the Steelers. Neither the Broncos or Colts are going to beat the Patriots on the road, but the Broncos’ chances are better than the Colts’ since their team is one player.

I really, really, really hope the Broncos can find themselves and return to being the team that ran through the AFC playoffs a year ago. Because without that happening, Super Sunday isn’t going to be about gambling, getting drunk and eating 5,000 calories. OK, it’s still going to be about those things, but it’s really going to be about continuing the drought.

Last week: 1-3-0
Season: 128-128-4

Blogs • Email Exchanges • Giants

Sep 24, 2014

Turning Point for Giants and Redskins

The Giants and Redskins meet on Thursday Night Football and one team will head into a 10-day break feeling good at 2-2 and one team’s season will be over at 1-3.

Sunday was a must-win game for the Giants and Thursday is also a must-win game for the Giants. After getting past the Texans and what would have been a disastrous and season-ending 0-3 start to the season, the Giants are faced with the possibility of either getting to 2-2 before a 10-day break, or falling to 1-3 and basically guaranteeing a third straight playoff-less year.

With the Giants and Redskins meeting on Thursday Night Football, I did an email exchange with my friend and the biggest Redskins fan I know, Ray Schneider, to talk about whether the Redskins’ future is with RGIII or Kirk Cousins, if moving on from Mike Shanahan was the right move and how the Jay Gruden era has been going in Washington.

Keefe: The first thing I said when RGIII went down with a dislocated ankle was “Oh fuck.” Not because I’m an RGIII fan or care about his future or the Redskins’ success but because I’m a Giants fan, and one who knows that Kirk Cousins is a better quarterback than RGIII and that means the Redskins just got better in an already cluttered NFC East.

Cousins has only reinforced my opinion on the RGIII-Cousins debate by throwing for 250 yards and two two touchdowns against the Jaguars and then 427 yards and three touchdowns in a devastating loss to the Eagles. (I unfortunately had the Redskins in a parlay.)

Ray, the future for your Cubs is looking up with their abundance of young talent and the future of your Redskins could be looking up if they finally admit that Cousins is the better option over RGIII at quarterback and stick with Cousins even when RGIII returns. I know Cousins has said, “This is RGIII’s team,” but it shouldn’t be even though I want it to be for the Giants’ sake.

Please tell me that you know Cousins should be the permanent starter.

Schneider: When I began reading that, I thought your initial response to RGIII’s injury was out of concern for my well-being. But yeah, there’s no denying that Cousins has played great these past 2 weeks and is light years ahead of RGIII in Gruden’s offense at this point. As a Skins fan, my hope is that Cousins continues to play out of his mind for the next 6-7 weeks and there isn’t a question of who the permanent starter is once RGIII is healthy.

That being said, there was never an expectation that 3esus was going light up the league beginning Week 1. Gruden was brought to DC to evolve RGIII’s game and some of the hiccups along the way were to be expected. Griffin’s ceiling is so much higher than Cousins’ that I am okay with the bumps and bruises along the way, but if Cousins plays at an elite level for the remainder of his stay as interim starter, he’s our guy.

Keefe: I was somewhat concerned for your well-being after the Week 1 debacle against the Texans mixed with the loss of RGIII, but after the rout of the Jaguars and the play of Cousins, I thought you were probably doing fine.

I’m very surprised to have you so easily agree with me on Cousins over RGIII. After RGIII’s draft and following postseason appearance I thought you were going to grow your hair out again, get dreadlocks and get RGIII’s jersey tattooed on your body. I mean, you nearly did that for Jason Campbell seven years ago, and when Campbell’s days in Washington were over and he played for Oakland, Chicago, Cleveland and now Cincinnati, I pictured you singing Pearl Jam’s “Black” if his career ever finally took off.

I know someday you’ll have a beautiful life, 
I know you’ll be a sun in somebody else’s sky, 
But why, why, why can’t it be, can’t it be mine?

I know how strongly you support your Redskins, so I think it’s normal for me to be shocked that you so quickly jumped off the RGIII for the Cousins one. Maybe Cousins can be your Matt Saracen or do you think the Redskins are still a few years from that? If so, how many years? Cubs years?

Schneider: Slow down … I haven’t gotten off the RGIII bandwagon quite yet. I still really do believe that RGIII has the talent to be a multiple Super Bowl winning quarterback, but I also realize the injury concern with him is legitimate — which is why I’m going to the tattoo artist on Saturday to see how hard it’ll be to have the “10” on my chest touched-up to read “8” (the guy worked wonders changing the “17” to a “10”, so I’m hopeful).

If Cousins can continue to play the role of franchise savior over this audition run, it is a wonderful problem for the Skins to have. Do we move forward with the guy that established himself as one of the best young quarterbacks playing in 2014 or do we move forward with the guy that had arguably one of the most dynamic seasons ever by a quarterback and won us the division just two years ago? Not really a bad problem.

If Kirk proves to be more Matt Flynn and less Tom Brady over these next two months, the question of RGIII’s durability becomes a lot more frightening.

Keefe: That “10” used to be a “17?” Get out of here. That guy does great work.

When Mike Shanahan was the head coach, it seemed like every week there was a new story about his relationship with RGIII and they all seemed to negative. It didn’t help that standing between the head coach and the franchise quarterback was an offensive coordinator who was Shanahan’s son, but there always seemed to be a disconnect between the coach and quarterback, especially at the end of his tenure.

Shanahan came to to the Redskins 12 years removed from winning the Super Bowl with the Broncos and was supposed to bring with him the offensive genius he was during his time in Denver. The Redskins went 24-40, lost their only playoff game to the Seahawks and finished in last place in the NFC East three of the the four years Shanahan was coach. However, I don’t think he’s that distraught over it since he’s making $7 million this year to sit at home and not coach football, which is a lot more money than you and I are making to not coach football this year.

Before we get to the Jay Gruden era, were you a Shanahan guy and should he have been back for 2014?

Schneider: At first I was, but what’s important to remember is that Shanahan was hired on the heels of Jim Zorn’s departure. At the time it seemed like things were being righted with the Redskins. Snyder’s longtime yes-man/VP of Football Operations, Vinny Cerrato, had just left and control of the team was going to be shared between Bruce Allen and Shanahan. No longer did the fate of the Skins lie in the hands of Snyder and the dude that starred in the acclaimed film Kindergarten Ninja.

Pretty much immediately following Shanahan’s introductory press conference is when things stopped being so rosy. Listed in somewhat chronological order, here are some of the highlights of the Shanahan era:

1. Donovan McNabb: Andy Reid still can’t believe he got a second- and fourth-round pick. Mike also signed Donovan to a five-year extension a week after benching him for Rex Grossman and just hours before Donovan’s former team came to FedEx Field and did terrible things to the Skins. A few weeks later Donovan was once again benched for Rex and so ended his DC-stay.

2. Albert Haynesworth: Granted Shanahan had nothing to do with bringing Fat Al to the Skins and the guy is a genuine piece of shit, but the whole conditioning test was embarrassing for everyone involved.

3. Rex Grossman/John Beck: The Skins have had some pretty storied quarterback battles in their history, Grossman vs. Beck is not one of them, but don’t let Mike tell you otherwise as he said, “I put my reputation on these guys that they can play.”

4. Week 3, 2011 at Dallas, Zero Blitz: With Dallas facing a third-and-21 and trailing by 1 late in the fourth quarter, the Skins call an all-out blitz. Tony Romo hits Dez Bryant for a 30-yard hookup and the Cowboys kick a field goal and win the game. Defensive coordinator Jim Haslett was blasted by the fan base for this call except Mike was the one that made the call.

5. Wild-Card Game vs. Seattle: Some could argue that Shanahan took the easy way out by relying too-heavily on RGIII’s legs and didn’t take the time to develop his skills as a passer — I’m not going to, that season and RGIII were electrifying. BUT what Shanahan and son did in the playoff game was absolutely reckless. With Robert already playing on a clearly hobbled knee, the Shanahans continued to call zone-read after zone-read until The Savior’s knee was shredded.

6. 2013 Draft: The Redskins had seven picks in the 2013 Draft — only two remain on the active roster and only one will be playing against the Giants this week.

So no, I did not want Mike Shanahan around this team any longer.

Keefe: I knew things were bad during the Mike Shanahan era, I didn’t realize how in-depth bad they were, so thank you for laying those out for me. I only wish you had told me those in person, so you could be present for me laughing. Donovan McNabb! Albert Haynesworth! Rex Grossman! Oh my!

I missed most of that wild-card game against Seattle because I was up in Boston that weekend to see Louis CK and I believe I was on my way back to New York City when Shanahan was busy blowing out RGIII’s knee as if he were Kurt Russell in Miracle calling for Team USA to bag skate over and over just waiting for someone to collapse on the ice. You siad it was “reckless” and I would agree. I would also say it was “irresponsible” and not only because it was detrimental to RGIII’s career, but because a different game plan could have won that game for the Redskins.

That brings us to Jay Gruden. Since you’re happy the Mike Shanahan era came to an end, are you happy that the next era started with Jay Gruden as the head coach?

Schneider: I am and that’s largely because of what Gruden did with Andy Dalton. With Gruden being a former quarterback himself, everything that is said about him is that he approaches the game with the mindset of a quarterback. Obviously after Shanahan shredded both RGIII’s knee and his psyche, it was exciting to hear there would be someone in charge that would build him back up.

Even with the Gruden directed Griffin redemption story being put on hold for the next few weeks or maybe forever, I still think Skins fans have a reason to be excited. The offense can not only move up and down the field but they can also score points, which Shanahan teams had trouble doing.

Gruden isn’t the control freak that Shanahan was either. He’s happy to let the defensive coaches call their game without his interference & they’ve looked much better … aside from the 37 points they let up on Sunday.

With better special teams play and little more discipline, the Skins should be 3-0 right now. Everyone can play the shoulda, coulda, woulda game, but these are things a young coach will clean up, so I think the future is bright with Gruden.

Keefe: You sound optimistic about the Kirk Cousins era, the Jay Gruden era and the Redskins as a whole, which is exactly how I would expect you to sound since you are usually feeling good about your team at this point in the season. Hopefully the New York Football Giants can change that on Thursday night.

One team is going to leave FedEx Field at 2-2 and one is going to leave at 1-3. If the Giants win, they will have won back-to-back games after an embarrassing and disappointing 0-2 start in which their offense looked worse than Roger Goodell lying his way through his press conference last week. If they lose, they will be 1-3 with and have a divisional loss lingering for the next 10 days before starting the following schedule: Atlanta, at Philadelphia, at Dallas, BYE, Indianapolis, at Seattle, San Francisco, Dallas. I don’t want to say the Giants’ season is over if they lose to the Redskins because you never know with the Giants, but their season is likely over if they lose.

If the Redskins win, they can feel good about themselves after dropping back-to-back games and Kirk Cousins will have confidence before playing the Seahawks and Cardinals. If they lose, their only win so far will have been against the Jaguars and their season could fall apart with Seattle and Arizona the next two weeks.

This game is the turning point for both teams. One of us is going to be happy for the next 10 days and one of us is going to be wondering how their season ended before the end of September.

What do you expect on Thursday night?

Schneider: It’s never good to be declaring a game a must-win by Week 4, but you’re right, this is a must-win for both teams.

As much as last week’s loss to the Eagles was devastating, it could serve as a real confidence builder for the team. Stomping the Jaguars was fun, but there was still the realization that it was the Jaguars. Going into Philly and giving the defending NFC East champs all they could take for 60 minutes is a completely different story. I foresee the Skins riding this wave of confidence to a 31-17 victory that looks more lopsided than it sounds.

Tag: Tony Romo

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Turning Point for Giants and Redskins