Peyton Manning – Page 2 – Keefe To The City

Sep 10, 2015

NFL Week 1 Picks

I hate the end of summer and post-Labor Day means the days are only going to get shorter and the weather is only going to get colder and soon enough you won’t want to go outside. So here we go. For the next 22 weeks, there’s football.

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I hate the end of summer. I have seasonal depression, or at least I think I have seasonal depression and post-Labor Day means the days are only going to get shorter and the weather is only going to get colder and soon enough you won’t want to go outside. But I love that football is back tonight, the Giants begin their season in three days, the Yankees are headed to the postseason in some form and the Rangers’ season begins in 27 days. I guess there are some positives to fall.

The beginning of the football season gives every team and every fan a chance to believe in their team and in moments like this happening (that’s me in Boston after the Giants beat the Patriots in Super Bowl XLII. I might have had a few beers). That night I drank in celebration at a bar in Faneuil Hall in the heart of Boston watching the highlights of the game over and over and over and over until the bar kicked us out.

The next morning I woke up without any traces of a hangover and walked out onto Hanover Street, which looked like the opening scenes of Vanilla Sky or I Am Legend. There was hardly any people around and the handful of people I did see had a look of complete devastation across their face. I couldn’t have been happier. That’s what football can do.

I haven’t liked football for a while. The last time I enjoyed football was the second before Russell Wilson threw a pass intended for Ricardo Lockette that was intercepted by Malcolm Butler. Actually, the last time I liked football was the second before Pete Carroll decided to throw the ball on the goal line with the Super Bowl at stake and the best running back in the league on his team. The second before Carroll opened his mouth and suggested that play or agreed to that play was the last time I liked football.

Since that second, the Patriots went on to win the Super Bowl, ending a nine-season drought without a championship, Tom Brady became a four-time Super Bowl champion, Boston sports fans argued that Marshawn Lynch might have not gotten in the end zone from the 1, Darrelle Revis became a champion and the worst thing in the history of sports happened: Deflategate. If Carroll gives the ball to Lynch there, the Seahawks win the Super Bowl, the Patriots are once again losers on the biggest stage, Jermaine Kearse’s catch unseats David Tyree’s catch as the most improbable Super Bowl catch of all time and Deflategate doesn’t spiral out of control because no one cares if a non-championship team may or may not have altered the footballs. But none of that happened and instead for nearly eight months at one point of every day I saw or heard the word “Deflategate” some place.

I was in Seattle for the NFC Championship Game and I saw about two seconds of the AFC Championship Game. I had heard the score and didn’t need to witness the Patriots embarrassing the Colts a week after the Ravens couldn’t close them out. Later that night in the hotel room, my girlfriend showed me a tweet that the Patriots supposedly played with underinflated footballs. My first thought was, “I don’t even know what that means” since I simply didn’t understand if that was good or bad or how that could be an issue. I thought it was just some nonsensical report that would either be laughed at or forgotten. I went to sleep on Jan. 18 not knowing about how footballs are handled before each game, what the proper PSI levels are for footballs or that quarterbacks got to use their own personal footballs in a game. When I woke up on Jan. 19, that nonsensical report hadn’t been forgotten.

I still can’t believe that for nearly all of the 2015 calendar year (minus the 17 days before the AFC Championship Game), Deflategate has pretty much controlled the headlines. The idea that people could spend so much time talking about the air pressure in footballs, reading every piece of information from the investigation and suspension and appeal and listening to sports radio recycle the same mind-blowing opinions on the topic is actually insane. Trying to understand how this much time, attention, money and resources were used on trying to figure out how footballs were lacking the necessary air is like trying to understand why Joe Girardi will use Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller in a game the Yankees are winning by five runs, but not in a game they’re losing by one run or why How to Make it in America was cancelled after two seasons or trying to grasp something as complex as the universe. Deflategate makes my head hurt to think about.

Unfortunately, Deflategate will never go away. The word will always follow Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and the Patriots around just like Spygate has. The Brady/Belichick Patriots will always be the victims of a witch hunt to Patriots fans and cheaters to non-Patriots fans. Even though the D-word is here to say just like the S-word has stayed alive for the last eight years, on Thursday night we will all finally have something else to talk about: a real-life football game. That is, until the Patriots beat the Steelers, like they always do at Gillette Stadium. Then, we will all have to hear about how they cheated to win the season opener too.

Tonight begins a new NFL season and with that comes a new picks season and another 263 games to pick. Last season, I finished 129-130-4, losing the final game of the season, the Super Bowl, on the play that should have gotten Pete Carroll fired. That play motivated me to work hard this offseason and get in the best shape of my life and make sure this picks season doesn’t end the way the last one did.

So here we go. For the next 22 weeks, there’s football.

(Home team in caps)

NEW ENGLAND -7 over Pittsburgh
As a Giants fan, I have to question the Patriots’ so-called cheating tactics. Either they lost on purpose a few times to make it seem like they weren’t cheating the way you might get a few questions wrong on a test on purpose to not make it obvious. Or they are just the worst cheaters of all time.

If the Patriots were videotaping signal givers and stealing playbooks and breaking into hotel rooms for information, did they forget to do these things for some of the biggest games? After their Super Bowl win in 2001, they missed the playoffs in 2002. They won the Super Bowl in 2003 and 2004, but then they lost to Broncos in the playoffs in 2005, blew a 21-6 halftime lead to the Colts in the 2006 AFC Championship Game, blew the perfect season and lost Super Bowl XLII to the Giants, got run out of Gillette by the Ravens in 2010, were embarrassed by the Jets at home in 2011, lost against to the Giants in Super Bowl XLVI, were shut down by the Ravens in 2012 and got dominated by the Broncos in 2013 before winning the Super Bowl this year.

Like I said, the Patriots were either losing on purpose to keep things balanced or they just aren’t very good cheaters given all of the information they supposedly had, taped and stole. Or maybe they just weren’t doing anything that every other team was already doing? No, it can’t be that.

Green Bay -7 over CHICAGO
This season I have made a pledge to myself to go hard after the Bears. I’m not getting suckered into thinking they can or will be good and I’m not changing my mind on them. I don’t care if they start the season 5-0 or or 7-0 or go 10-0 or complete the perfect season. If they do any of those things, good for them, but I’m not changing my mind on the Bears.

HOUSTON -1 over Kansas City
I’m not sure how Bill O’Brien and Rick Smith came to the conclusion that Brian Hoyer should be the Texans’ starting quarterback over Ryan Mallett. To be fair, it’s not like he named Hoyer the starter over a clearly more talented player and the two likely have the same amount of ability. But did they watch Hoyer play for the Browns? If you’re looking for one touchdown, two interceptions and 227 yards then Hoyer is your guy because that’s what he is and because we know what he is, why not start Mallett? At least there is a chance he might be somewhat good or at least better than Hoyer.

NEW YORK JETS -3 over Cleveland
The Jets always seem to get a cupcake game in Week 1 even if there is supposedly no such thing in the NFL. Last season, the Jets opened at home against the Raiders. The year before they opened at home against the Buccaneers. The year before that they opened at home against the Bills. It’s like they are playing the equivalent of Alcorn State, Tennessee-Martin and Arkansas State in Week 1. The Jets seem to always win in Week 1 because they’re at home against a weak opponent, which is once again the case this season, and then the Jets are 1-0 and their fans start mapping out their route to a postseason berth and before you know it they’re 1-3 and trying to keep their season alive.

After this game, the Jets follow with at Indianapolis, home against Philadelphia and at Miami before their Week 5 bye. Todd Bowles better get his first win as Jets head coach against the Browns or he might not be getting it until Oct. 18 and Week 6 against Washington. That’s a long ways away and there’s a lot of time between now and then for Jets fans to buy billboards and fly planes over practice suggesting he be fired.

BUFFALO +3 over Indianapolis
I wouldn’t mind seeing the Bills do well and have a winning season and make the playoffs. The only problem with that is their quarterback is Tyrod Taylor. His backup is Matt Cassell. His back up is EJ Manuel. That’s a big problem to have, but so is not having a run defense, which the Colts still don’t have.

Miami -4 over WASHINGTON
This is the official survivor pool Week 1 pick for just about everyone. In a week in which there are many even-matched and coin-flip games, you can always count on the Redskins to give you a much-needed win to stay alive.

For the last few years, we have been hearing about how the Dolphins will challenge the Patriots in the AFC East and each time they have failed. This year, the Dolphins are supposed to be even better and once again challenge the Patriots and reach the postseason for the first time since 2008. If the Dolphins are as good and reliable as they are being hyped up to be then this line is incredibly low. Even if the Dolphins are an average team, this line is too low. Even if the Dolphins are in the bottom third or bottom fourth of teams in the league, this is line is still too low. That’s how bad the 2015 Redskins are.

JACKSONVILLE +3.5 over Carolina
The Game of the Week. Somewhere someone who isn’t a Jaguars fan or a Panthers fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Thank about that.

Seattle -4.5 over ST. LOUIS
The Seahawks and I are not on good terms. After I became an honorary Seahawks fan and a 12 for the Super Bowl they went on to blow a 10-point lead and blow the game to ruin my Super Bowl Sunday and the days that have followed since. I don’t know if I’ll ever be able to forgive them for the loss and I absolutely will never forgive Pete Carroll for his play call. But if the Seahawks (and Pete Carroll isn’t included in this) are going to try to win me back it’s going to be by consistently covering spreads week in and week out. Here’s their first chance at redemption.

ARIZONA -3 over New Orleans
We all know what happens when you take the Saints out of the Superdome. Now take them out of the Superdome without Jimmy Graham.

SAN DIEGO -3 over Detroit
These two teams are the same to me and this is the hardest game of the week to pick. I did trade Matthew Stafford for Eli Manning in fantasy football, so I have to root heavily against Stafford this season.

TAMPA BAY -3 over Tennessee
Jameis Winston vs. Marcus Mariota in Week 1. I’m surprised this hasn’t been sold as the “Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady of the future”. If it were, Winston would be Manning would weapons like Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson and Mariota would be Brady with Kendall Wright and Harry Douglas to throw to. I’m thankful that the NFL Sunday Ticket is available to everyone this year, so that I don’t have to be forced to have the NFL Red Zone get stuck on this game since the only thing I would need or any non-Bucs and non-Titans fan would need from this game is the final score.

OAKLAND +3.5 over Cincinnati
I could care less about the NFL preseason. It’s baseball season until the Yankees either win the World Series or are eliminated and even if you don’t like baseball, there has to be something better to do with your time than watch meaningless preseason football games. The only crazier people in the world than those who watch preseason games are those who attend them. It’s not like spring training where you’re likely getting away from cold weather and enjoying the sun and watching a product that resembles what you see for 162 games in the summer.

The only thing I look for in preseason are finding out which key Giants were injured since it’s inevitable and videos of Andy Dalton throwing interceptions. And there’s only one thing more entertaining than Andy Dalton preseason interceptions and that’s Andy Dalton regular-season interceptions and once again there will be a lot of them.

DENVER -5 over Baltimore
Since I don’t watch preseason football, the last time I watched Peyton Manning play he was throwing wobbly passes as if he were trying to make a Nerf ball without seams spiral and the passes weren’t going to anyone. He finished that home playoff loss against the Colts at 26-of-46 for 211 yards and a touchdown despite coming off a bye, which momentarily made everyone think the Colts had a chance against the Patriots before they were blown out.

I have no idea what Manning will look like this season if he could have looked so bad against a bad defense with a trip to the AFC Championship Game on the line. I don’t think he would have come back if he were going to continue to play like that, so for now, I’m trusting that a healthier, yet older, Peyton Manning came back because he would be good enough to cover spreads once again.

New York Giants +6 over DALLAS
I’m overly confident in the Giants right now. I’m talking high levels of irrational confidence about a team that has gone 13-19 over the last two seasons and hasn’t made the playoffs in the the last three seasons. That could all change in one minute on Sunday night or even one play if Eli Manning opens the season with a first-play interception the way he did against the Cowboys in Week 1 on Sunday Night Football two years ago.

What scares me the most about the 2015 Giants isn’t the absurd amount of preseason injuries for the third straight year or the health of Victor Cruz or the absences of Jason Pierre-Paul or the offensive line or the secondary. What scares me the most is what Prince Amukamara said about this game by calling it a “must-win.”

“I could see everyone’s [butt] getting tight, everyone feeling like they are on the hot seat. You definitely don’t want that feeling around. It’s a bad disease.

“I think that can break the team’s morale, especially with the guys that have already been here and have experienced 0-1, than 0-2 and 0-6 (in 2013). It’s just a bad taste in your mouth. And with this organization, which wants to win now and always has a sense of urgency.”

The idea that a Week 1 loss could cause the team’s butts to “get tight” and “break the team’s morale” isn’t exactly reassuring for the season if they do lose to the Cowboys. Since Amukamara basically called this game the Super Bowl following the most uninspiring preseason from the Giants maybe ever, I’m not scared about this game, I’m petrified.

ATLANTA +3 over Philadelphia
Everywhere I turn I see the Eagles being picked to win the NFC East and be a Super Bowl contender. Is Sam Bradford not the Eagles’ starting quarterback? Has he not missed the last 23 regular-season games? Was the last time he played in an NFL game not Oct. 20, 2013?

In five seasons, Bradford has played 16 games twice and has played in 49 of a possible 80 games (61 percent). If Bradford were to get hurt and miss time, which obviously is a real possibility, then the Eagles would turn to Mark Sanchez once again. If you forgot, the Eagles were 7-2 last season and with Sanchez as the starting quarterback, they went on to miss the playoffs.

The Phillies are fighting to not be the worst team in baseball, the Flyers are horrible and the 76ers haven’t been good since Allen Iverson played for them. If the Eagles aren’t good, the Philadelphia sports landscape will be full of bad teams, which is more incentive to pick against the Eagles.

Minnesota -2.5 over SAN FRANCISCO
I have no idea when I’m going to sleep in the next five days. The Yankees have a four-game series against the Blue Jays beginning on Thursday. The NFL season opens on Thursday. The first NFL Sunday is this Sunday and the Giants play at 8:30 p.m. There is the Week 1 Monday Night Football doubleheader with the second game (this game) starting at 10:15 p.m. Normally this is like Raiders-Chargers and I could watch it while falling asleep, but my girlfriend is a Vikings fan, so I will be awake and invested in this game. Since I will be watching intently with a crazed Vikings fan next to me, I have to go with the Vikings here otherwise the next time I will be able to get a good night’s sleep won’t be as early as Tuesday.

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Blogs • Giants

Jan 9, 2015

NFL Divisional Round Picks

It’s the supposed best week of the playoffs. Four games over two days with the 1-seeds in play. Either the hated (at least hated on this site) Patriots or the scummy Ravens will lose, either

It’s the supposed best week of the playoffs. Four games over two days with the 1-seeds in play. Either the hated (at least hated on this site) Patriots or the scummy Ravens will lose, either Tony Romo or Aaron Rodgers will go home and either Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck’s season will be over. And, oh yeah, the Panthers’ season is over because they are going to get run out of Seattle.

I ended the regular season two games over .500, needing to go just 5-6 in the playoffs to finish over .500. After last week’s 1-3 disaster thanks to believing in Ryan Lindley on the road, the untrustworthy Steelers and a Bengals team led by Andy Dalton and Marvin Lewis playing without A.J. Green and Jermaine Gresham on the road, I’m making things interesting when they don’t need to be. I deserved to go 1-3 with choices like that.

This week will be different because it has to be. There is too much on the line when it comes to my picks and My Super Bowl XLIX Dilemma and an eventual champion.

(Home team in caps)

Baltimore +7 over NEW ENGLAND
The Ravens’ wins this season have come against Pittsburgh (2), Cleveland (2), Carolina, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Tennessee, New Orleans, Miami and Jacksonville. Their losses have come against Cincinnati (2), Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, San Diego and Houston. The Ravens have gone 2-6 against winning teams, and both of their wins came against their rival in the Steelers. They are the 6-seed in the AFC and the only reason they were able to sneak into the playoffs is because half of their schedule this season was played against the AFC South and NFC South. So why does anyone think the Ravens can beat the Patriots or even keep the game close? The real answer is I have no idea, but for me, I have no choice other than to hope the Ravens can keep the game close and to hope that they can win the game outright.

It pains to me to have to root for the Ravens, considering that they’re probably the scummiest organization in all of professional sports (yes, even scummier than the Red Sox), but like I said, I have no choice. The Patriots are two wins from getting back to the Super Bowl and three wins from ending what will be a 10-year drought if they are eliminated this week or next week or lose in three weeks in Super Bowl XLIX. But no matter what happens today, if the Ravens win or the Patriots win, we all lose. Either the Patriots are one step closer to doing something they have failed to do for the last nine seasons, or the Ravens will be that much closer to becoming champions in a season in which all of the karma in the world should be going against them.

SEATTLE -11.5 over Carolina
This should be the 4:30 game on Saturday because people have things to do at that time on Saturday and missing this game and checking later to see the Seahawks won by 30 points is acceptable.

Last week, Jon Gruden seemed amazed every time the Panthers made a mental or physical mistake against the Cardinals. Gruden couldn’t believe that the Panthers could be so bad or so careless with the football in a playoff game. And each time Gruden’s voice hit astonishing levels, I so badly wanted Mike Tirico to interrupt him and remind him that the Panthers are a 7-8-1 team that would have been focused on their draft position rather than a playoff game if they had played in any other division. Five of the other division winners finished with 12 wins (4.5 more wins than the Panthers) and the other two finished with 11 (3.5 more wins than the Panthers).

The Seahawks won 12 games, a year after winning 13 games and three more in the playoffs. They have gone 28-7 over the last two years and after starting 3-3 this season, they are 9-1 over their last 10 and have given up a total of 39 points in the last six (6.5 points per game).

The Seahawks are the best home team and the best team in the NFL and they are going to win the Super Bowl. The Panthers might not score on Saturday night.

GREEN BAY -6 over Dallas
The game of the week played between two teams I hate with one having to move on and play for a trip to Glendale. It’s a nightmare situation like the Red Sox and Angels meeting in the ALDS or the Flyers and Devils meeting in the Eastern Conference semifinals.

The Cowboys were the 11th-ranked team in My Super Bowl XLIX Dilemma, just ahead of the Patriots. (The only team that could challenge the Patriots for the top spot is the Eagles.) Their season should have ended last Sunday against the Lions before the refs took over the game, screwed the Lions over on the pass interference and then did everything other than carry the ball into the end zone themselves on the Cowboys’ go-ahead (and eventual game-winning) drive.

The Cowboys don’t deserve to still be playing football and the Packers at Lambeau will make sure of that.

DENVER -7.5 over Indianapolis
I used to think if the Broncos could win the 1-seed in the AFC and host the AFC Championship Game then the Patriots wouldn’t have a red carpet to the Super Bowl. But ever since the Broncos were 6-1 and went to Gillette Stadium in Week 9 and left with a 43-21 loss, they haven’t been the same team. Sure, they were 6-2 after their loss to the Patriots and they went 6-2 over the final eight weeks of the season, but something has been off about the Broncos.

Unfortunately, I think the best chance of the Patriots getting eliminated before the Super Bowl is this week against the Ravens and that’s not a very good chance considering the Ravens couldn’t beat a winning team all season not named the Steelers. Neither the Broncos or Colts are going to beat the Patriots on the road, but the Broncos’ chances are better than the Colts’ since their team is one player.

I really, really, really hope the Broncos can find themselves and return to being the team that ran through the AFC playoffs a year ago. Because without that happening, Super Sunday isn’t going to be about gambling, getting drunk and eating 5,000 calories. OK, it’s still going to be about those things, but it’s really going to be about continuing the drought.

Last week: 1-3-0
Season: 128-128-4

Blogs • Giants • NFL

Nov 6, 2014

NFL Week 10 Picks

I’m thinking of going to a comedy show in New York on Sunday night, which would force me to miss the end of the Giants-Seahawks game. So I have to make the decision between moving

I’m thinking of going to a comedy show in New York on Sunday night, which would force me to miss the end of the Giants-Seahawks game. So I have to make the decision between moving from the couch on a football Sunday, going out, paying for a round-trip cab, admission to the show and food and drinks or staying on the couch and finish watching a three-hour free comedy show live from Seattle on FOX. As much of a joke the Giants-Seahawks game will likely and how many laughs it should produce for non-Giants fans, I think it’s a better idea to get out out of the apartment just as the Seahawks backups finish off the Giants as the Giants finally start to throw the ball for the majority of their plays once the game is out of reach.

Speaking of comedy, this week on his Monday Morning Podcast, Bill Burr said, “If you bet on football this year, you’re out of your mind. At this point you should just cut your losses and go home.” I wish I could, Bill. I wish I could go. But there are still eight weeks of the regular season to pick and then the playoffs.

(Home team in caps)

CINCINNATI -6.5 over Cleveland
The Bengals have done their transformation to become the AFC Saints in that the Paul Brown Stadium Bengals are a much different team than the Outside the Paul Brown Stadium Bengals are. The Bengals are 4-0-1 at home this year and 1-2 on the road after going 8-0 at home and 3-5 on the road last year. This season, the Bengals’ average home score is a 30.8-20.2 win and their average road score is a 28.7-13.3 loss. That’s good news if the Bengals can win the NFC North and play their first playoff game at home. The problem is the Bengals is five or their last seven games are on the road.

Miami +3 over DETROIT
It’s never a good idea to buy into the Miami Dolphins. You would be better off buying into a start-up newspaper in 2014 than the Dolphins given their history of strong starts and late-season collapses, but the problem with this game is the Lions are the Dolphins of the NFC. So I can either buy into the start-up newspaper in 2014 (Dolphins) or pay for an AOL account in 2014 (Lions). That’s why I’m taking the points.

Buffalo +2.5 over KANSAS CITY
If the Giants aren’t going to do anything this year, which they’re not, then I might as well be an honorary Bills fan for the rest of the season. I can’t get behind the Browns because them winning means Johnny Manziel’s career will only be delayed longer and I can’t get behind the Chiefs because of Alex Smith even though it would make me happy to know that the city of Philadelphia and Eagles fans would have to watch Andy Reid win the Super Bowl. Aside from the Bills, those are the other long-suffering franchises that look like postseason contenders that I don’t have any direct hatred against, but how could I not pull for the Bills and Kyle “David Grohl” Orton to go on a run with the Bills?

San Francisco +5 over NEW ORLEANS
The Saints are going to win this game. That’s a fact. How do I know this? Let me say it again:

The Saints’ last home loss with Sean Payton as head coach came in Week 17 in 2010 when they had nothing to play for. Including the playoffs, with Payton as head coach, the Saints have won all of their home games since that loss and here are their margins of victory in those games: 19, 6, 11, 25, 18, 3, 32, 18, 21, 24, 6, 17, 28, 29, 14, 25, 11, 55, 7 and 17.

BALTIMORE -10 over Tennessee
I have done everything I can to continuously pick against the Ravens, but there are times when you have to see the difference between right and wrong and smart and dumb. And taking Tennessee, even to cover a double-digit spread, is dumb though I’m sure every sharp in Vegas would disagree given the state of the NFL.

Pittsburgh -6.5 over NEW YORK JETS
The Jets have lost eight straight games. They have fans wasting money on planes to fly over practice and promote John Idzik’s firing while other fans are wasting their money to use a billboard outside MetLife to promote the same cause. Michael Vick, who clearly wants no part of actually playing football anymore and would rather just hang out on the sidelines and collect a paycheck (who can blame him?) is starting over the most recent Jets franchise quarterback. And their head coach continues to say he sees good things each week even though the team’s only win came in Week 1 over the still-winless Raiders.

The Steelers were 3-3 and coming off a 21-point loss to the Browns before winning three straight games and saving their season and putting themselves in prime position to return to the playoffs. They have scored 94 points in the last two weeks against two contenders in the Colts and Ravens and Ben Roethlisberger threw for 862 yards and 12 touchdowns without an interception in those two games. And they have possibly the best receiver in the league in Antonio Brown ready to face the worst secondary imaginable.

So what does all of this mean? It means that this game will likely be decided by a field goal because the NFL is insane. But it also means it’s no time to be backing the Jets and asking them to cover anything less than a touchdown.

Tampa Bay +2 over ATLANTA
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Buccaneers fan or a Falcons fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

Denver -12.5 over OAKLAND
I don’t want to say Peyton Manning is a fraud, so I will let other people say it for me. But the best regular-season quarterback in history went into Gillette Stadium and got embarrassed once again last week. Sure, he put up 429 yards and got his numbers in before it was over, but his team lost by 22 points in a game that could be the difference in a trip to the Super Bowl and an AFC Championship Game loss because of home-field advantage. I picked the Broncos last week because I didn’t want to back the Patriots even though I envisioned the game that played out playing out because it has so many times Peyton has gone to New England. Let’s hope that performance doesn’t mean a Super Bowl appearance for the Patriots because then I’m done with Peyton.

ARIZONA -7.5 over St. Louis
The Arizona Cardinals are the best team in football.

The Arizona Cardinals are the best team in football?

I wrote that sentence out with both a period and a question mark because after I wrote it the first time, I read it back to myself like Ron Burgundy reading a line on the prompter incorrectly because of a misplaced question mark at the end of it. Are the Cardinals the best team in football? Their record says they are at 7-1, leading the NFC West that was supposed to be for Seattle or San Francisco to win. I’m happy for the Cardinals after missing the playoffs last year despite a 10-win season while the Packers played a first-round home game at 8-7-1 for winning the NFC North, but I’m not sure a team with Carson Palmer as their quarterback can ever be considered the best team in the league at any time even if their record says they are.

New York Giants +9.5 over SEATTLE
The Giants’ offense currently consists of a first-round pick wide receiver who has played four career games, two wide receivers who can’t catch, a tight end who played quarterback in college, a tight end who was out of football in 2013, a rookie running back and a running back who thought his NFL career was over a little over a year ago. The absolute worst place for a team with that offensive personnel to go is Seattle, so if you’re thinking of sitting back at 4:25 on Sunday and watching the Giants, you might want to make other plans for around 5:00. I think I’m going to.

GREEN BAY -7.5 over Chicago
The last time the Bears won in Green Bay was Oct. 7, 2007 in Week 5. It was Brian Griese playing for a benched Rex Grossman against Brett Favre. The Bears have cost me picks and actual money so many times this season that I will be pulling for a Packers blowout on Sunday night as if it were the Giants playing in the Super Bowl.

Carolina +6 over PHILADELPHIA
The Panthers aren’t good. But you’re asking me to pick Mark Sanchez to win a game he starts by a touchdown.

Last Week: 4-9-0
Season: 63-70-1

Blogs • Giants

Sep 11, 2014

NFL Week 2 Picks

The Giants face an “almost must-win game” in Week 2 against the Cardinals, but they aren’t the only team in that position this week.

Week 2 is dangerous. The only thing you know about every team in the league is one game of information and there’s a good chance that what you learned about each team in 60 minutes of football isn’t an accurate assessment of who that team really is or is going to be. Unless that team is the New York Football Giants.

Every concern, issue, problem, question mark and unknown raised about the 2014 Giants in the offseason and preseason was on display in their 21-points loss to the Lions and troubling part is that they aren’t going to be fixed anytime soon. I highly doubt that after months of trying to learn the new offense that they are all of a sudden going to have learned it and be magically clicking less than six full days after there was reason to celebrate when they would run a play successfully or when a receiver would catch a pass for positive yards.

Here is how I started my 2013 Weeks 2 Picks (and also apparently the way I started my 2012 Week 2 Picks):

Can you have a must-win game in Week 2? Yes, you can because the Giants do.

(I opened my 2012 NFL Week 2 Picks with that same question. I’m hoping I won’t have to use it in 2014.)

And like in The Departed when Mr. French tells Billy after fighting the cranberry-juice ordering guy (he is actually listed as Well-Dressed Scumbag At Bar in the script I used to find the exact quote), “That’s not quite a guy you can’t hit, but it’s almost a guy you cant hit,” the Giants’ Week 2 game against the Cardinals isn’t quite a must-win game, but it’s almost a must-win game. But the Giants aren’t alone in playing an “almost must-win game” in Week 2. So let’s get to the Week 2 picks.

(Home team in caps)

Pittsburgh +2.5 over BALTIMORE
It’s a good thing that with all the negative PR surrounding the NFL this week that they have an actual game with Thursday Night Football for people to talk about and get their attention back on the field. Wait, what’s that? Oh the team playing in and hosting the Thursday game is the team at the center of the league’s problems? That’s some unfortunate timing for Roger Goodell and the NFL.

When it comes to Ravens-Steelers, it’s usually easy to figure out what to do, so I will just add to what I always say before every Ravens-Steelers game.

In 2013, the Steelers won 19-16 and the Ravens won 22-20. In 2012, the Ravens won 13-10 and the Steelers won 23-20. In 2011, the Ravens won 35-7 and 23-20. In 2010, the Ravens won 17-14 and the Steelers won 13-10. In 2009, the Ravens won 20-17 in overtime and the Steelers won 23-20. In 2008, the Steelers won 23-20 in overtime and 13-9.

That’s 12 games with 10 of them being decided by three points, one being decided by four points and one being decided by 28 (the Steelers had seven turnovers, yes seven turnovers, in that loss). Forget picking the Ravens to cover, is there a prop bet that this game will be won by exactly three points?

This game will be decided by three points. And when you know that, how can you not take the points?

Detroit +2.5 over CAROLINA
The Lions’ 35-14 win over the Giants could have probably been 56-0 if the Lions didn’t play Lions football and have several brain farts and commit stupid penalties along the way. But even though there’s a new coaching regime in Detroit, the Lions proved on Monday night that they are still the same old Lions and at any moment they will shoot themselves in the foot and turn a sure-thing into a close thing.

Miami -1 over BUFFALO
The Bills upset the Bears on the road as seven-point underdogs in Week 1, put a massive dent into every survivor pool in the world and were sold to Terry Pegula, the owner of the Sabres, who is obviously going to keep the team in Buffalo. This week has been the best week for Bills fans in over 20 years, but as a franchise and a fan base, good times can’t be sustained in Buffalo.

The Dolphins cost me my New England -5 pick last week, but if I have to take a loss on a pick, I’m happy to take one if it means a loss for the Patriots. Prior to the start of Week 1, you would have thought it was 2004 with the way the Patriots were being picked to win the Super Bowl this year. But after the Dolphins exposed the Patriots’ offensive line as possibly worse than the Giants’ offensive line, and picked apart the Patriots’ so-called revamped defense, it doesn’t seem like the glory days are returning to New England with their personnel.

Jacksonville +5.5 over WASHINGTON
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Jaguars fan or a Redskins fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

TENNESSEE -3.5 over Dallas
After the 1:00 games ended on Sunday and my parlays and teasers had been destroyed and the Yankees had lost their second game in three days in which they didn’t allow an earned run, Tony Romo stepped in to save my Sunday with a season-opening three-interception game.

When I picked San Francisco -5 over Dallas last week, I said:

If you saw the Cowboys roster and it was listed as the roster for “Team X” and Team X didn’t happen to be a national team with a heavy gambling presence, this line would be a lot higher than 5 for one of the NFL’s elite teams on the road against a team that’s headed for a six- or seven-win season.

Now take that and apply it to this week. If Vegas thinks that the Cowboys as the most nationally-followed team with the biggest fan base and most money wagered on their games are 3.5-points underdogs in Tennessee, what are the Cowboys really supposed to be?

NEW YORK GIANTS +2.5 over Arizona
If I could believe in Santa Claus and the Easter Bunny and the Tooth Fairy and that the 2014 Yankees can win 16 of their 19 remaining games and make the playoffs, then I can talk myself into believing that the Giants’ offense, which looked like 11 guys who met five minutes before the game on Monday night, can turn it around for Week 2.

OK, I understand that the Giants’ offense is likely going to be a disaster again this week and that it’s a “work in progress” and that there really isn’t a home-field advantage at MetLife and if anything the Giants play worse at home, but the Giants need to win this game. And as long as Carson Palmer is the opposing quarterback, it might not matter that the Giants’ receivers seem to know the new offense as well as I know how to cook chicken or … well … anything.

MINNESOTA +3.5 over New England
My girlfriend is a Vikings fan and all week I have let her know the important position her team is in. I’m not talking about the Vikings going 2-0 and being at least tied for first place in the NFC North through Week 2. I’m talking about the chance to drop the Patriots to 0-2, a place they haven’t been since 2001 (they actually started that season 1-3, but did win the Super Bowl), put Boston into a state of panic after the city was without a baseball season this summer and put the bet every overconfident Patriots fan made on the Patriots having over 11 wins this seasons on life alert.

If Knowshon Moreno could tear up the Patriots for 134 yards on 24 carries (5.6 yards per carry), what is Adrian Peterson capable of against that defense? I’m getting a little too happy thinking about it.

New Orleans -6.5 over CLEVELAND
I never, ever, ever, ever pick or trust the Saints on the road. The Outside the Superdome Saints can’t be trusted. But there is one circumstance when they can be. That circumstance is when they are playing in Cleveland and Josh Gordon is suspended and the availability of Jordan Cameron and Ben Tate is unknown.

CINCINNATI -5 over Atlanta
Atlanta made me look good last week by not only covering against the Saints, but by beating them in overtime. Unfortunately the Bengals also made me look good by covering and beating the Ravens on the road, and now the Bengals return home where they went 8-0 last year and won those eight games by an average of 17.6 points. The Bengals haven’t lost at home since Dec. 9, 2012 in Week 14 and it was a one-point (20-19) loss to the Cowboys. Could Paul Brown Stadium be turning into the Superdome?

TAMPA BAY -6 over St. Louis
After losing to a Cam Newton-less Panthers team in Week 1, there are a lot of open seats on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers bandwagon as it gives us a preview into what Yankee Stadium will look like in 2015. The Buccaneers now get a Sam Bradford-less Rams team in Week 2 before heading on the road for three straights week to Atlanta, Pittsburgh and New Orleans. If the Buccaneers can’t win a convincing game against the 2014 Rams, who were run out of their own building by the Vikings, then their 2014 is going to go the way 2013 went.

SAN DIEGO +6 over Seattle
I have thought about this game more than any other game this week and after going over everything, I have narrowed all the information down to two basic questions:

1. Do I want to get burned by the Super Bowl champion Seahawks and the best defense in the league for the second time in as many weeks?

2. Do I want to trust that Philip Rivers can keep it close against and possibly even beat the Super Bowl champion Seahawks and the best defense in the league?

And when I write the two questions out, it’s easy for me to see that . If I lose this game taking the best team in football coming off a 20-point win against the so-called “best” quarterback in the league on 10 days rest, I can deal with it. But what I can’t deal with is if I take the Chargers and then watch the Seahawks do what they did to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers on opening night.

Houston -3 over OAKLAND
Oakland is playing for the first overall pick at the 2015 NFL Draft and after having watched Draft Day this week, I can definitely see the Raiders making the same decisions Sonny Weaver Jr. made if he had never eventually gotten his first-round picks back for the next three years back.

GREEN BAY -8.5 over New York Jets
No one seems to know what checkpoint Rex Ryan needs to reach to be the Jets head coach in 2015, whether it’s a .500 season or a winning season or reaching the playoffs or winning a playoff game, but watching Ryan celebrate a Chris Ivory 71-yard touchdown run against the lowly Raiders as if he just received word he’s going to be brought back for next season wasn’t a good look for Rex. It’s the Raiders. The Raiders! They started a rookie quarterback making his NFL debut and helped him out with 25 rushing yards. That’s 25 rushing yards on 15 carries in a 60-minute game!

When I did the Jets preseason podcast with my friend and most optimistic Jets fan Tim Duff, we talked about the Jets’ need to beat the Raiders before the six-week gauntlet from Weeks 2-7 that will decide their season. The Jets took care of business against in Week 1, but now the gauntlet begins and it begins in Green Bay where a healthy Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are looking to bounce back after their season-opening rout at the hands of the Seahawks and avoid falling to 0-2 and Green Bay is where Duff will be, in his Sheldon Richardson jersey likely getting ridiculed and abused by Packers fans. I’m looking forward to my next podcast with Duff following the Jets-Packers game because I know it’s going to have a much different tone than it did before Week 1 when he was taking shots at the Giants and glowing over the phone with optimism about the Jets.

DENVER -13 over Kansas City
Last year I saw “good value” in taking the 9-0 Chiefs’ money line against the 8-1 Broncos in Denver in Week 11. I was at MSG for Rangers-Kings checking my phone for score updates and still felt confident in the bet despite trailing 17-10 at halftime. But eventually, the Broncos pulled away, winning 27-17 and covering the 7.5-point line.

When the teams met two weeks later in Kansas City, I once again saw “good value” in taking the money line of the 9-2 Chiefs over the 10-1 Broncos at home where the Chiefs had only one loss, which came the week prior against the Chargers on a game-winning touchdown with 31 seconds left. The Broncos won again, this time 35-28, and covered again.

The lesson I learned: Don’t trust Alex Smith and Andy Reid against Peyton Manning.

Chicago +7 over SAN FRANCISCO
The Bears are in a bad spot. Not only are they playing the 49ers this week, but six of their next eight games are on the road in tough places: San Francisco, New York (Jets), Carolina, Atlanta, New England and Green Bay. No one saw a Week 1 loss at home to the Bills coming for the Bears and that includes Bills fans. It was a terrible teaser-killing loss and one the Bears couldn’t afford to give away playing in the best division in the league and with their challenging schedule. Had the Bears blown out the Bills and covered their 7-point spread like most assumed, this line in San Francisco would be somewhere around 3.5-5, but instead it’s 7, and 7 seems too high for a 49ers team that suffered devastating secondary injuries. Did I just take Jay Cutler on Sunday Night Football against one of the league’s elite teams in a game in which they will open their new stadium? I probably won’t regret this decision …

INDIANAPOLIS -3 over Philadelphia
Back-to-back primetime spots for Andrew Luck. Earlier this week, Mike Francesa said Luck “is about to become the best player in the league” and that might be true, which means a lot more primetime for Luck for a long, long time.

The Giants’ best chance (and possibly only chance) at reaching the postseason is going to come by winning the division. (Yes, I’m talking Giants’ postseason chances three days after a 21-point in which their offense and offensive coordinator looked like 12 guys who all spoke 12 different languages.) And if the Giants are going to stay in the hunt, they are going to need the rest of the NFC East to be mediocre as well. The Cowboys and Redskins proved they are ready to fight for an 8-8 or 9-7 playoff berth with their Week 1 performances and the Eagles looked like they would happily join in as well before their 34-point second-half outburst against the Jaguars. The only thing standing in the way of the Giants and meaningful late-season football and a potential playoff berth they don’t deserve is if the Eagles don’t run away with the division.

Last week: 8-8-0

Blogs • Giants

Sep 4, 2014

NFL Week 1 Picks

Last season, the Makeshift Yankees got me to September and got me to the Giants. Unfortunately, the Giants couldn’t even make it through September to get me to the Rangers by going winless through September and half of October. Yes, the Giants fought back to give me a meaningful game on the Sunday before Thanksgiving in Week 12, but they blew that game and blew a gift from the Football Gods, who gave them a chance to take over the NFC East lead and a chance at the playoffs despite starting the season 0-6.

This season, the Yankees got me to the Giants (barely) and are still somewhat going even if they need to go like 25-0 the rest of the way to make the playoffs. The Giants, though, might not get me to the Rangers again, judging by their preseason offense and all of the questions surrounding a team that seems to be headed in the wrong direction. But not even the thought of Eli throwing another 27 interceptions can get me down today because it’s the start of the football season.

The first day of football season means the first day of picks, doing longhand addition on the back of bills to create wild parlays, figuring out how to track four fantasy teams without getting the “Stop running this script?” message on a computer, freaking out over a suicide pool in the fourth quarter of the first week, searching for some overseas site that has every NFL game available to watch if you just answer some survey questions, drinking excessive amounts of beer and eating foods that contain little to no nutritional value.

Football is back in my life and so are the New York Football Giants.

When I last left off with the Giants, they won their season finale over the Redskins in front of one of the most embarrassing Week 17 home crowds the Giants have likely ever seen. But when I really left off with the Giants was when they were blowing that Week 12 game against the Cowboys, because after that, the final five weeks of the season were just a formality.

After the Giants won Super Bowl XLII, Plaxico Burress ruined what should have been the next NFL dynasty and the Giants lost their only playoff game in 2008. They missed the playoffs completely in 2009 and 2010 thanks to back-to-back second-half collapses before winning the Super Bowl in 2011. Now they have gone back-to-back years without a trip to the playoffs once again and all I can think is maybe there’s a pattern there.

Football is back and that means so are the weekly picks.

(Home team in caps)

Green Bay +6 over SEATTLE
The Seahawks are going to win on Thursday night because they don’t lose in Seattle and they certainly about to start losing at home on the same night they are raising a Super Bowl banner in their first home game since becoming champions. However, Aaron Rodgers is as healthy as he’s going to be for the next four months and that’s enough for the Packers to cover.

ATLANTA +3 over New Orleans
Here are the last five Saints-Falcons games in Atlanta:

2013 – Week 12: NO 17, ATL 13
2012 – Week 13: ATL 23, NO 13
2011 – Week 10: NO 26, ATL 23 OT
2010 – Week 9: NO 17, ATL 14
2009 – Week 14: NO 26, ATL 23

The Saints have won four of the last five games in Atlanta and all of their wins have been by four points or less. The only Falcons win in there came in a 13-3 season, which should have resulted in Super Bowl appearance if they didn’t blow a 17-point lead in the NFC Championship Game and cost me my 10-to-1 Falcons-Ravens parlay that Sunday. I know how different the Saints are outside of the Superdome, but the Georgia Dome is still a dome and you would think they would play at least near their Superdome abilities, but they were barely able to get by the miserable 2013 Falcons last year with a four-point win. I have been burned too many times by the Saints on the road in the past even if they have been successful of late in Atlanta, and I’m still not over their loss in New England last year.

Minnesota +3.5 over ST. LOUIS
I had to do a double take when I saw this line to make sure I wasn’t reading it backwards or that it hadn’t been posted wrong.

I’m petrified at the thought of picking against Shaun Hill because when he was on the 49ers he cost me a lot of picks. A LOT of picks. I don’t care that Hill is 34 years old and has only attempted 16 passes in the last three years. He could be 56 years old and coming out of a 20-year retirement and starting in this game and I wouldn’t feel comfortable. But it’s time to start collecting on my past losses against Hill and it starts this week.

Cleveland +7 over PITTSBURGH
I’m not sure who told a bigger lie on Wednesday: Wes Welker saying someone slipped something into his drink to produce his positive Molly test or Mike Pettine saying “We’re not going to have a quick hook” when it comes to Brian Hoyer. It’s hard to take Welker at his word when you consider that he looked like this at the Kentucky Derby and that Tom Brady laughed like this when asked if he saw Welker taking anything at the Derby. Brady’s laugh could have meant “Haha, yeah, I’m going to say I watched my suspended friend do drugs,” since that would go over real well for one of the faces of football and for every anti-drug Tom Brady fan on the planet. Or it could have meant “Haha, obviously I watched my friend take drugs because we were partying at the Kentucky Derby.” I think it meant both.

Brian Hoyer is virtually an unknown, having started just two NFL games, and Johnny Manziel is also an unknown having never played one second in the NFL. The difference is that Johnny Football is the new Tim Tebow if Tim Tebow had Manziel’s quarterback abilities. In Week 1 in 2011, it didn’t take Mile High long to start a Rudy-like chant asking for Tebow to play and three weeks later they got their wish when Tebow became the starter. Cleveland has had one winning season in the last 11 years and have made the playoffs once (2002) since returning to the NFL in 1999. It’s going to take a lot less and a lot less time for Browns fans to turn on Hoyer and call for Johnny Football and once those chants start, there’s no stopping them and certainly not a first-year head coach in a job he wasn’t the first choice for. The only reason Manziel isn’t starting is because it’s easier for Pettine to bench Hoyer than it is Manziel.

No one believes Welker and no one believes Pettine.

PHILADELPHIA -11 over Jacksonville
Here are Philadelphia’s last three season-opening opponents: Washington, Cleveland and St. Louis. Apparently things weren’t easy enough for the Eagles to get their seasons rolling with three straight 1-0 starts, so the NFL schedule makers gave them the Jaguars to kick off 2014. So when the Eagles hang 40-something points on the Jaguars on Sunday and for the next week we are forced to hear about how Chip Kelly is a genius and the Eagles’ offense is unstoppable and every trash site that create lists about the “Best” this and “Top” that for content start to compare Nick Foles to all-time greats and the Eagles’ offense to the 2013 Broncos or 2007 Patriots, it will be the NFL schedule makers’ fault. Eff you, NFL schedule makers. Eff you.

NEW YORK JETS -5.5 over Oakland
Here is the Jets’ schedule for their next six games after the Raiders: at Green Bay, Chicago, Detroit, at San Diego, Denver, at New England.

The Jets could easily lose all six of those games, but even if they don’t lose all six of them, it’s going to be very, very hard for them to go even .500 during the gauntlet. The Jets know this and know that if they have any hopes of staying in the playoff hunt through October they HAVE to beat Oakland. And even if they didn’t know this, there’s nothing the Raiders can do about it anyway.

Cincinnati +1.5 over BALTIMORE
Ravens-Bengals seems like it’s becoming what Ravens-Steelers was for so long. And if that’s the case, then I have to go with what I write for every Ravens-Steelers pick:

This game will be decided by three points. And when you know that, how can you not take the points?

CHICAGO -7 over Buffalo
Here is what I said about the Bears in my 2013 NFL Week 1 Picks:

The Bears are the closest things to the Giants in the NFL when you look at their talent and ability to completely destroy a playoff-bound season.

Here is what I said about the Bills in my 2013 NFL Week 1 Picks:

Bills fans don’t like when anyone talks poorly about them or picks against them (even when a spread is involved), but even a Bills fan with the Bills logo tattooed on his neck (someone like this has to exist) or a Bills fan with the Bills logo tattooed on his bald head (someone like this also has to exist) would tell you that the 2013 season is going to be fine.

Both things held true as the Bears blew their season and the Bills were what the Bills have been for basically my entire life. This game and line does feel too good to be true and whenever a game feels too good to be true, it usually is.

HOUSTON -3 over Washington
I want the Redskins to fail, so that when it comes time for Giants-Redskins on Thursday Night Football in Week 4, I can talk to my friend Ray, the biggest Redskins fan I know, and have him in a serious depression.

KANSAS CITY -4 over Tennessee
This line feels low. This game also feels like the one where I’m going to be thinking “Why didn’t I just take the points?” before halftime.

New England -5 over MIAMI
I wanted to take the Dolphins here. I really, really, really wanted to take the Dolphins here. But then I thought about flipping around between games on Sunday at 1:12 p.m. and flipping back to Patriots-Dolphins just in time to see CBS cutting to commercial with their NFL theme music playing and a shot of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick talking on the sidelines as a graphic appears on the screen that says New England 7, Dolphins 0, 13:54, 1st QTR. That exact situation has played out many times and I have tried to avoid being on the wrong end of it.

Carolina +2.5 over TAMPA BAY
I was initially confused about this line because the Panthers went 11-1 after a 1-3 start last season and the Buccaneers became the most dysfunctional team in a league that still has the Raiders. So when I saw the Panthers were 2.5-point underdogs with Cam Newton playing with a hairline fracture in his ribs, I was skeptical and still am. It seems like Vegas is joining the Tampa Bay bandwagon along with a lot of the football world and at least for one week they have me on board, but I’m sitting coach and next to the emergency exit for when I inevitably jump off for Week 2.

San Francisco -5 over DALLAS
If you saw the Cowboys roster and it was listed as the roster for “Team X” and Team X didn’t happen to be a national team with a heavy gambling presence, this line would be a lot higher than 5 for one of the NFL’s elite teams on the road against a team that’s headed for a six- or seven-win season. And I’m going to cherish every minute of the Cowboys’ inevitable miserable season.

DENVER -7.5 over Indianapolis
I honestly believe Peyton Manning has every single play for the entire first quarter already scripted out. If the script comes relatively close to the way it went at home last year for the Broncos then this pick will be fine.

New York Giants +6 over DETROIT
I originally saw this line at DETROIT -3.5 and now it’s moved 2 1/2 points to 6 as everyone watched the Giants’ first offensive team struggle to produce any kind of offense in five preseason games. But even with their struggles as long as Kevin Gilbride doesn’t have a direct connection into Eli Manning’s helmet to tell him to run a draw play on third-and-7 from the opponent’s 47-yard line then I like the Giants’ chances not only to cover in this season-opening game, but all season. (And it’s Week 1, of course I’m not picking against the Giants.)

ARIZONA -3 over San Diego
Maybe one day I won’t be so anti-San Diego and pick against them at any opportunity I get, but that day isn’t today in Week 1.

Tag: Peyton Manning

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