Max Scherzer – Keefe To The City

Jul 27, 2015

It’s Beginning to Look A Lot Like Pre-2013

When things are going well for the Yankees, I tend to look at the standings a lot. During 2013 and 2014, I tried my best to avoid the standings, especially in August and September after each season-crushing loss.

When things are going well for the Yankees, I tend to look at the standings a lot. From when I was eight years old during the 1995 season through when I was 25 years old during the 2012 season, I looked at the standings A LOT (with the exception of 2008). During 2013 and 2014, I tried my best to avoid the standings each day, especially in August and September after each season-crushing loss.

But ever since the Yankees went to Fenway Park for the last three games of the first half, I have spent an exorbitant amount of time looking at studying the standings as if it were pre-2013 once again. And after the Yankees’ sixth straight series win on Sunday to improve to 14-5 in July, here is how the AL East standings look:

A 6 1/2-game lead in the division with the Orioles being the closest in the loss column at seven back has the Yankees sitting incredibly well for the final 67 of the season. Let’s say the Yankees went 34-33 in the final 67 games, playing .507 baseball for the rest of the season. They would finish 89-73. Here is what the rest of the AL East would have to do just to tie them.

Toronto, 39-23 (.629)
Baltimore, 41-24 (.631)
Tampa Bay, 40-22 (.645)
Boston, 45-18 (.714)

But the Yankees aren’t going to play just .507 baseball the rest of the way and those four teams, none of which are above .500, aren’t going to play as well as those numbers say they need to, which would have only tied them with the Yankees choking away the season. The Yankees are on their way to where they haven’t been in three years and it’s all because everything that went wrong in 2013 and 2014 is going right in 2015.

After two years of everything and I mean everything going wrong for the Yankees, everything is going right for them in 2015. Well, maybe not everything since Stephen Drew is still playing second base and Brendan Ryan is still on the team, but even those two examples prove how fortunate the Yankees have been this season. If it were 2013 or 2014, not only would Drew be starting, but so would Ryan, in the same infield every day and likely hitting in the middle of the order the way that Ichiro, Lyle Overbay and Vernon Wells were asked to nearly every day in 2013. Instead, the Yankees have managed to have the second-best record in the AL as of today with their everyday second baseman hitting .188.

The team was able to overcome an embarrassing 3-6 start to the season and a frustrating 1-10 stretch in May, which is when the 2013 and 2014 Yankees fell apart and never recovered. They have won games started by Jacob deGrom, David Price, Max Scherzer, Chris Archer, Scott Kazmir and two games started by Felix Hernandez. They have kept on winning even with Joe Girardi constantly giving unnecessary days off to his best players like how he sat Brett Gardner against a lefty on Saturday or how he sat A-Rod on Sunday after he hit three home runs on Saturday (fortunately the Yankees won both games). And they have overcome having two reliable starting pitchers (both of which are frequently given extra rest between starts), having two starters (CC Sabathia and Nathan Eovaldi) who are coin flips every five days and having their most consistent first-half starter put in the bullpen because of money (Sabathia) and “stuff” (Eovaldi) instead of results. The Yankees have overcome injuries, underachieving, questionable signings and irresponsible roster and lineup decisions to get to where they are.

To think that the Yankees could be where they are right now with arguably their best three players in the rotation, field and bullpen in Masahiro Tanaka, Jacoby Ellsbury and Andrew Miller not having all been healthy at the same time from April 24 to July 7 isn’t remarkable or impressive, it’s flat-out ridiculous. And they are where they are even with those three extended absences because Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira have turned back the clock to 2009-2011 when it was Teixeira who would hit third and A-Rod who would hit fourth as the most feared 3-4 combination in the majors; and because Brett Gardner went on the hottest of his patented hot streaks imaginable; and because Dellin Betances, Chasen Shreve and Justin Wilson got everyone out. The performances of A-Rod and Teixeira and Gardner and the bullpen overshadowed Chase Headley’s abyssmal first full season with the Yankees, Didi Gregorius’ New York growing pains, Carlos Beltran’s inability to produce and stay healthy and the constant struggle for Sabathia and Eovaldi to pitch six innings.

Now there are 10 weeks left in the season and the Yankees are as healthy as they can be without any regular position player, starter or reliever on the DL (knock on all of the wood around you) and they are another stretch like they have had the last two weeks from running away and hiding with the AL East.

Some Yankees fans just wanted a return to the postseason in any form in 2015 and that meant accepting a spot in the wild-card game. Me? I wanted the Yankees to win the AL East when the season began the same way I do every season. I wanted to know that the Yankees would be playing past Game 162 and Opening Day wouldn’t be the only day with bunting draped over the second and upper decks at the Stadium. I wanted everything to be the way it used to be and now it looks like it will be.

It feels good to have the Yankees back where they’re supposed to be. It feels good to have the baseball world right again.

Blogs • Yankees

Jul 6, 2015

The Necessary Nine

The Yankees have an important nine-game stretch before the All-Star break that could set them up nicely for the second half if they win six of the games.

In 2007, the Yankees faced a 12-game stretch that the Daily News believed would make or break their season by calling it the “Dirty Dozen.” In 2013, the Yankees faced a 14-game stretch before the All-Star break, which held the same challenge, that I called the Final 14. Both stretches presented times the Yankees were fighting for their playoff lives and needing to win in bunches to keep their season from turning meaningless. This season, before the All-Star break, the Yankees are in a different position, but playing a very significant stretch: the Necessary Nine.

I have been fortunate to have a baseball summer nearly my entire life. The last time the Yankees finished under .500 was 1992 when I was six. Since then, it’s been 22 straight over-.500 seasons with playoff appearances every season except for 1994 (thanks to the strike), 2008, 2013 and 2014. The 2008, 2013 and 2014 were good enough to keep my summers alive and string me along into believing they could overcome incredible injuries, but they weren’t good to give me a fall. And like Bobby Knight once told his Indiana team, “You will not put me in that f-cking position again.” I need a fall this year. I have to have a fall.

The 2015 Yankees are a weird team. They have the ability to start the year 3-6 and then go on an 18-6 run. They have been swept by the Rangers and have swept the Royals. They have lost two out of three to the Phillies at home and they have beaten Jacob deGrom, Felix Hernandez and Max Scherzer. They have been unpredictable and frustrating at times and dominant and unbeatable other times. But the one constant with them is that they have stayed at or near the top of the AL East for the entire season, which is something they weren’t able to do the last two years.

The “Necessary Nine” began on Friday night against Tampa Bay. With nine games against the Rays, A’s and Red Sox standing between the Yankees from the All-Star break and four consecutive off days, this is their chance to create separation in the division and take the Red Sox out of the race completely. The Red Sox have played better of late even with the worst rotation in the league, but they’re still six games under .500 (39-45) even if Bostonians want you to believe that record is reversed with their over-the-top optimism. A series win or another sweep in Boston this weekend would keep the Yankees where they are and send the city of Boston into an All-Star Game depression, allowing them to do something other than focus on baseball for the rest of summer.

Sunday’s loss to the Rays was the 82nd game of the season and the official start of the second half (the first post-All-Star Game will be the 89th game), and with the 8-1 loss, the Yankees are 44-38 and one game up in the division. The series win over the Rays was the first checkpoint for the “Necessary Nine” since it kept them on pace for the needed record over this stretch, kept the Rays at bay and kept the Yankees in first place and still one game up, which is where they were before Friday’s game, while taking three more games off the schedule. Next up is beating up on the lowly A’s before the important first-half finale in Boston.

But before the Yankees head to Boston, they have to take care of business at home against the A’s, a last-place team that already took three of four from them in Oakland at the end of May. And since the Yankees never miss out on facing an opposing team’s ace, of course they will see Sonny Gray in the series opener on Tuesday night. It will be the second time the Yankees have seen him, after just having seen Chris Archer over the weekend, C.J. Wilson the series before that, Dallas Keuchel the series before that and Cole Hamels the series before that.

The Yankees should win six of the nine and now that they have already won two, that means winning four of six against the last-place A’s and Red Sox. “Should” was never a problem in the pre-2013 Yankees world, but now it’s become a dangerous and powerful word that leaves Yankees fans puzzled after disappointing losses to bad teams.

I want to go back to when the Yankees took care of business against bad teams and games they “should” win turned into actual wins. I want to go back to when the Yankees being in first place at the All-Star break was a sure-thing. We’re almost there.

Blogs • Email Exchanges • Yankees

Jun 9, 2015

Bryce Harper at His Hopeful Future Home in the Bronx

The Yankees haven’t lost in June with six straight wins and now it’s time for a two-game series with the Nationals and Bryce Harper’s first games at Yankee Stadium.

The Yankees haven’t lost in June with six straight wins and back-to-back sweeps over the Mariners and Angels. After struggling through the second half of May, the Yankees are still on top of the AL East heading into a two-game series with the NL East’s first-place Nationals. That means Bryce Harper is going to play at Yankee Stadium for the first time.

With the Yankees and Nationals meeting in the Bronx for their second of two short two-game series, Patrick Reddington of Federal Baseball joined me to talk about Max Scherzer’s incredible start to the season, Bryce Harper becoming the early favorite to win NL MVP and the concern about Stephen Strasburg’s future.

Keefe: The Yankees will face Max Scherzer on Tuesday night because the Yankees never seem to be able to dodge their opponent’s ace in any series. Whether it’s Scherzer or David Price or Matt Harvey or Sonny Gray or Felix Hernandez, the Yankees never seem to get any back end of a rotation.

Scherzer enters the game with a 1.85 ERA, allowing more than two earned runs in a start just twice in 11 starts this seasons, but somehow has lost four of his 11 starts because of a lack of run support.

Has Max Scherzer exceeded your expectations?

Reddington: We all knew Max Scherzer was going to be good, but he seems to have adjusted to the Nationals league fairly well thus far. What I didn’t expect, having not watched him as often as I probably should have while he was in the AL, was just how fiery a competitor he is on the mound. Not in a way that shows up opposing teams, but just really an ultra-competitive streak and an ability to maintain his stuff throughout his starts, hitting 95, 96 and 97 even late in his outings after sitting 92, 93 and 94 throughout the game.

But he’s in a three-way tie for highest fWAR so far this season (+2.8), the 1.85 ERA is fifth lowest in the majors so far, and that’s after he gave up four earned runs last time out. He has a .201 BAA. More importantly, and less noticeably, he’s also working with and helping the other pitchers on the staff, with Gio Gonzalez, among others talking about how he’s picked things up from Scherzer already this season. So, yeah, I’d say he’s exceeded expectations, which is even more impressive considering how high they were when he signed that $210 million deal.

Keefe: Part of that run support problem has been because no one other than Bryce Harper is having a good offensive season except for maybe Yunel Escobar, but even he doesn’t provide the usual power and production from their base. Aside from Harper, no one on the Nationals has more than seven home runs and Danny Espinosa is second in slugging percentage at second base.

Are you worried about the Nationals’ offense and what it will mean for their postseason chances and winning the NL East?

Reddington: Anthony Rendon just returned to the lineup. Jayson Werth started the season on the DL and was hurt not too long after returning from offseason surgery and struggled to produce while he was available. Ryan Zimmerman has transitioned to first base well, but the bat isn’t playing thus far this season. I wouldn’t say Harper is the only one who’s gotten it done, though no one is coming close to his production thus far.

Escobar is collecting a lot of hits, but doesn’t hit for power. Denard Span missed time at the start, but has been solid offensively since returning. Ian Desmond is having a hard time getting into a rhythm at the plate. I dare say not too many people would have predicted Danny Espinosa’s success thus far, to the point where there are hints he may see some time in the outfield to keep his bat in the lineup now that the infield is mostly healthy.

Though the production Werth was providing wasn’t up to his usual standards, Michael Taylor, Tyler Moore and Clint Robinson have been able to approximate what Werth was giving them as a group, though that’s still a little disappointing.

It’s another one of those “just wait until the lineup is healthy and see” seasons, where it’s hard to judge them with all the injuries and different lineups. I wouldn’t say it has me worried about their chances in the division, though there are some signs that the same problems which plagued them in October (aside from the fact that the Giants’ pitching just matched up well against the Nationals’ hitting) are still there and could be a problem.

Keefe: The last time I talked with Federal Baseball, I joked about Bryce Harper becoming a Yankee someday. Well, I actually wasn’t really joking since I do hope and plan on Harper becoming a Yankee when he is finally a free agent.

Harper has continued to rake this season and become the early-season NL MVP favorite hitting .326/.464/.706 with 19 home runs and 46 RBIs. He showed his power against the Yankees in the first inning of their four-run comeback against Nathan Eovaldi back on May 19.

So once again, how fun is it to see Harper becoming the best hitter in the game in what is looking like an MVP season?

Reddington: I wouldn’t go fitting Harper for pinstripes just yet. Though he’s a Scott Boras client and there’s the history of his clients going to free agency, there’s just as much anecdotal evidence right now that Harper likes the idea of spending an entire career with one team.

Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo, who scouted, drafted, and oversaw his development from a very young age, has talked often about the “special relationship” the two of them have and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Mike Stanton-esque contract discussed at some point in the future provided Harper can stay healthy and continue to do what he’s been doing this season, because right now he looks every bit like the sort of once-in-a-generation-type talent he was hyped up to be when he was growing up.

Keefe: Stephen Strasburg was off to a rocky start the last time the Nationals played the Yankees three weeks ago, and that rocky start continued for his next three starts and now he’s on the 15-day disabled list with a neck issue.

Is this a you’re-not-pitching-well-so-we’re-putting-you-on-the-DL DL stint or is he really hurt? Are you worried about the future of Strasburg?

Reddington: It’s hard not to be worried about Stephen Strasburg. He’s 26, he’s already undergone Tommy John surgery, he’s struggled mightily this season and as far as the Nationals are saying, his mechanics are completely out of whack and he’s causing himself back issues with mechanics he altered because of an ankle injury he suffered this season. They’ve been very clear that they don’t see any signs of a problem in his shoulder or elbow, which is good news, but they’ve also been unable, two-plus months in to get him straightened out and back to what everyone, including Strasburg knows he’s capable of doing.

He’s frustrated, he was hurting the team with short outings before the DL stint and the issues have seeming moved around his back over the last few starts, so they really have to get him sorted out and make sure he’s 100 percent before they even consider bringing him back. I don’t think it’s a create-a-DL stint “injury”, but I do think it’s a good chance for him to get straightened out without having to try to do it against major league hitters in games that count, but he’s a huge part of this rotation and they need “Stephen Strasburg” back, not the pitcher they’ve had thus far this season.

Keefe: Three weeks ago, the Nationals were red hot, and you seemed to not be worried at all about their chances of winning the NL East. The Nationals are only a 1/2 game back of the Mets with one game in hand on them, but the Braves, despite being under .500 are only 3 1/2 games back in the division.

Every team has their question marks and with the Nationals’ offense struggling and their rotation not being what it was projected to be, are you still confident in the Nationals winning the East?

Reddington: I am confident that the Nationals’ talent will ultimately win out in the division, and that’s taking nothing away from the Mets, who are doing it without their franchise third baseman and the Braves, who completely reassembled to the roster around their young talent and are impressing me thus far this season with what they’ve been able to accomplish. That being said, which is a rhetorical device for wiping away that praise, I still think the Nationals are a better team than either of those two clubs.

After the Nationals dropped three of four to the Cubs this past weekend, Matt Williams said he wasn’t worried, noting that they struggled in April, turned it on in May and are back to struggling again. “Ebbs and flows” etc. But I don’t think it’s just manager speak. I think they have to get as healthy as possible and get Strasburg and Doug Fister back in the rotation before we can really judge just what the team is this season.

Blogs • Yankees

Jun 9, 2015

The Pray for Rain Power Rankings

There aren’t many pitchers in the league that you can basically chalk up as a loss before the game is even played, but whenever the Yankees play a team with one of these pitchers, they land him.

On Tuesday night, the Yankees will face Max Scherzer. So far this season, the Yankees have faced David Price, Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, Chris Archer, Sonny Gray and Felix Hernandez. When the Yankees face a team with a real true ace (or in the case of the Mets, two aces), they don’t miss him. There aren’t many pitchers in the league that you can basically chalk up as a loss before the game is even played, or at least give the Yankees little-to-no chance of beating them, and whenever they play a team with one of these pitchers, they land him.

Now that Jon Lester is not only out of the AL East, but out of the AL, and Scherzer is in the NL as well, the starting pitchers I hope the Yankees miss the most have changed. Here are the five pitchers I pray for rain to throw off the rotation and schedule before the Yankees have to face them.

1. Felix Hernandez
When the Yankees faced King Felix last Monday night, I figured I would be able to go to bed early with the 10:05 p.m. start in Seattle because the Yankees would either be unable to score against him and there would be not point in continuing to watch or because their lack of hitting would result in a two-hour game.

Felix had a 1-2-3 six-pitching first inning. Then he had a 1-2-3 eight-pitch second inning. And then he had a 1-2-3 six-pitch third inning. Nine up, nine down on 20 pitches. It felt like a perfect game might happen until the fourth inning, when the Yankees scored two runs on two hits and three walks in the most un-Felix-like inning ever. That is until the next inning when Felix gave up five runs, including a grand slam to Mark Teixeira. Felix finished the game with the following line: 4.2 IP, 6 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 5 BB, 4 K, 1 HR. Even with the Yankees hitting Felix like they never have, he’s still the best pitcher in the American League and at times, in the world (when Clayton Kershaw isn’t doing whatever he was doing in April and May).

I remember when Felix was a 19-year-old rookie who took a loss to the Yankees on Aug. 31, 2005 despite allowing only two earned runs over eight innings. And I also remember what he did to the Yankees in three starts in 2010: 3-0, 0.35 ERA, 26 IP, 16 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 8 BB, 31 K, 1 HR.

Felix is my most feared opposing pitcher in the AL and that isn’t going to change.

2. Chris Archer
The current AL leader in strikeouts has never lost to the Yankees and not only has he not lost to the Yankees in his seven starts against them (5-0, 2.02 ERA), but he has barely been touched by them: 49 IP, 34 H, 11 R, 11 ER, 6 BB, 33 K, 1 HR.

Because the Yankees face the Rays 19 times a season, I have to map out in advance if Archer will be seeing them, which I will be doing for Fourth of July weekend when the Rays head to the Stadium. Unfortunately, Archer signed a six-year, $25.5 million extension on April 2, 2014 with the Rays, which keeps Archer in Tampa Bay through 2019 with club options for 2020 and 2021. Archer isn’t leaving the AL East anytime soon.

3. Chris Sale
The Yankees have never done well against left-handers in my lifetime, especially those either making their Major League debut or those who the Yankees have never seen before. It was once again the case just last week when they were only about to score one run on four hits against the Mariners’ Mike Montgomery in his Major League debut in Seattle.

When it comes to elite left-handers, things are even worse. Cliff Lee, Jon Lester and David Price were all the most feared lefty to face the Yankees at one point, but now that title goes to the White Sox’ ace. Sale has never lost to the Yankees and in his five career starts against the Yankees he hasn’t just won, but he has dominated them. Here are his five career starts against the Yankees:

Aug. 22, 2012: 7.2 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 13 K, 1 HR

Aug. 6, 2013: 7.1 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 4 BB, 6 K, 0 HR

Sept. 3, 2013: 8 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 8 K, 1 HR

May 22, 2014: 6 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 10 K, 0 HR

Aug. 24, 2014: 6 IP, 4 H, 4 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 7 K, 0 HR

His total line: 35 IP, 17 H, 7 R, 2 ER, 9 BB, 44 K, 2 HR.

4. David Price
If Price’s last two starts against the Yankees hadn’t happened then he would be higher than No. 4 on this list. But those two disastrous starts did happen and along with that, the Yankees have seen him much more than they have Chris Sale and their experience against Price lessens the fear I have of him.

Those two starts I talked about were on Aug. 27, 2014 (2 IP, 12 H, 8 R, 8 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, including nine straight hits in the third inning) and on April 22, 2015 (2.1 IP, 10 H, 8 R, 8 ER, 3 BB, 2 K). Those two starts have caused Price’s career ERA against the Yankees to inflate to 4.41 over 26 starts and one relief appearance. His 10-7 record against the Yankees with that ERA aren’t exactly the most dominant numbers, but he’s still the second-best left-hander in the AL, who has the ability to shut down the Yankees in a big spot and he has before.

Since he’s an impending free agent, I might not have to worry about him facing the Yankees after this season.

5. Sonny Gray
Not even two weeks ago Gray made just his second career start against the Yankees, going eight innings and allowing two earned runs and four hits for the win. The current AL ERA (1.65) and WHIP (0.915) leader is only 25 with only 55 career starts and after an impressive first full season in 2014, he is making his run for the AL Cy Young.

There isn’t much to Gray’s career against the Yankees yet, but I have a bad feeling there will be. Either they will continue their usual bad luck track of never missing any elite pitcher and face him in the only two series they play against the A’s each season, or when Billy Beane inevitably trades him, he will trade him to an AL East team. Hopefully, when he’s traded, he’s traded out of the AL.

Podcasts • Yankees

Jun 9, 2015

Podcast: Bald Vinny

This Yankees season has been built on streaks. After a 3-6 start, the Yankees won 18 of their next 24 games. Then they fell apart in May, losing 10 of 11 for the first time

This Yankees season has been built on streaks. After a 3-6 start, the Yankees won 18 of their next 24 games. Then they fell apart in May, losing 10 of 11 for the first time since 1995, but they have rebounded to win 10 of 13 over the last two weeks, including six straight wins heading into a two-game series with the Nationals.

Bald Vinny of the Right Field Bleacher Creatures and Bald Vinny’s House of Tees joined me to talk about the Yankees’ streakiness this season, meeting A-Rod and how the perception of him has changed, Mark Teixeira’s impressive start to the year, Bernie Williams Day at the Stadium, what to do with Didi Gregorius and Stephen Drew and missing Robinson Cano.

Tag: Max Scherzer

It’s Beginning to Look A Lot Like Pre-2013

The Necessary Nine

Bryce Harper at His Hopeful Future Home in the Bronx

The Pray for Rain Power Rankings

Podcast: Bald Vinny