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Tag: Martin Prado

Blogs • Monday Mentions • Yankees

Aug 10, 2015

Monday Mentions: The Worst Yankees Weekend

The Blue Jays have gone from eight games back in the AL East to 1 1/2 games back in 12 days and the Yankees’ postseason chances are fading the same way they did the last two years.

New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays

I want to pretend that I didn’t spend all of Sunday night wondering if the Blue Jays are going to prevent me from watching the Yankees in the postseason. I want to pretend that the Yankees’ unwillingness to trade for David Price isn’t going to be difference between going straight to the ALDS or having to worry about winning a one-game wild-card playoff. I want to pretend like the Blue Jays haven’t gone from eight games back in the AL East to 1 1/2 games back in 12 days.

Here is another installment of “Monday Mentions” focused on questions and comments from Twitter about the Yankees’ disastrous weekend against the Blue Jays.

It’s hard to win games when you don’t score. The Yankees scored one run, ONE, in their biggest series of the season and the biggest series they have played since the end of 2012 and let the Blue Jays get within 1 1/2 games of them after a Stadium sweep. The Yankees needed to win one game this weekend to keep the Blue Jays five back in the loss column and prevent the weekend from being a complete disaster, but they couldn’t do that. Their best chance to win a game this weekend was on Friday, which is the only game they scored a run, but before they could score a second run, Joe Girardi lost the game.

I have written an unhealthy amount of words on set innings for relievers and how absurd it is, but Girardi is a big believer in having a seventh-inning guy and an eighth-inning guy and a ninth-inning guy and no matter the situation, he’s going to stick with it.

On Friday night, the Yankees and Blue Jays were tied 1-1 in the seventh inning. Nathan Eovaldi was still pitching and after a Mark Teixeira error and a Chase Headley bobble, the Blue Jays had runners on first and second with one out. Girardi called on Justin Wilson to relieve Eovaldi and he struck out Ben Revere on four pitches. Then Girardi called on Dellin Betances to relieve Wilson and he walked Troy Tulowitzki on four pitches and then got Josh Donaldson to ground out.

Betances returned in the eighth inning and after a Jose Bautista leadoff single, he retied Edwin Encarnacion, Justin Smoak and Russell Martin to end the inning.

Girardi called on Andrew Miller to relieve Betances in the ninth and he needed just six pitches to get through the inning against the Blue Jays’ 7-8-9-1 hitters.

The Yankees were unable to score in the bottom of the ninth, so the game went to 10th, and Girardi relieved Miller with rookie Branden Pinder to face the middle of the Blue Jays’ order: Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. This would have been a frustrating but understandable move if it were the 14th or 15th inning, but it was the 10th inning. But it wasn’t the 14th or 15th, it was the 10th, and it was irresponsible for two reasons.

1. Miller had thrown SIX pitches in the ninth inning. SIX. Miller had thrown five pitches on Sunday against the White Sox and 17 pitches on Thursday against the Red Sox. So after Friday’s ninth inning, he had thrown 28 pitches in six days or 4.7 pitches per day for the week. Is 28 pitches over the course of a week too much? Was the nine pitches it took to retire the Yankees in the bottom of the ninth too much of a layoff between innings for Miller to return for the 10th?

2. Wilson, Betances and Miller had been used. So let’s pretend like Miller really couldn’t go a second inning after throwing SIX pitches and that Girardi had to go to the bullpen. Chasen Shreve and Adam Warren were both still in the bullpen yet Girardi decided that rookie Branden Pinder and his 14 2/3 career innings was the best choice to get through the heart of the order of the best team in Major League Baseball in as close to a playoff game in the regular season as there can be on Aug. 7.

I’m not going to get into Girardi’s bullpen decisions on Saturday and Sunday, which were also incredibly questionable, because the team didn’t score a run in either game. The Yankees are going to have a hard enough time keeping the Blue Jays from overtaking them in the AL East, they don’t need Joe Girardi managing them to losses.

I really don’t understand what Adam Warren’s role is with the team. After being the most consistent starter for the first half of the season, the Yankees put him in the bullpen and left CC Sabathia in the rotation because of money and now Warren is randomly used. Sometimes he pitches with a lead, sometimes he pitches to hold a deficit, sometimes he pitches in the sixth inning, sometimes he pitches in the eighth innings, sometimes he faces on batter, sometimes he pitches multiple innings.

I have no idea when Warren will come into a game or how long he will stay in one. I have no idea what the long-term plan for him is because I have no idea what the current and short-term plan is for him. He went from most reliable starter to being put behind Andrew Miller, Dellin Betances, Justin Wilson and Chasen Shreve on the bullpen pecking order. I would say the Yankees’ handling of him has been very odd, but then again, this is exactly how the Yankees handle pitchers.

https://twitter.com/craigmiller/status/629088613301657600

That tweet was from last Wednesday and five days ago. After that tweet, Drew went 0-for-9 in three games to watch his batting average drop back down to .192 after having gotten it up to a season-high(!) .199 on Sunday in Chicago. Drew has never seen .200 this season. Not on Opening Day. Not in the first week of the season when averages change hundreds of points with each hit and out. Never.

Today is Aug. 10. Stephen Drew is still a Yankee. How that is possible hurts my head to even think about. Drew has started 79 games this season and has gone hitless in 37 of them. So in 47 percent of Drew’s starts, he hasn’t gotten a hit.

The Yankees clearly don’t like Rob Refsnyder as a player and don’t want to give him a chance to become the everyday second baseman. Maybe he does have an attitude problem, which has been rumored, but who cares? If he can hit, I don’t care if one person on the team likes him. If the Yankees aren’t willing to give him a chance right now, what makes anyone think they are going to give him one in September when rosters expand? Just because they won’t have to DFA anyone to have him in the majors at that point doesn’t mean he will playing and not riding the bench, especially if the team is fighting for a postseason spot.

The Yankees chose not to improve the roster at the trade deadline while the Blue Jays and Orioles made big moves to make a run at the division and wild card, while the Royals, Astros, Angels and Rangers all made moves to improve their teams to contend. The Marlins were willing to trade Dan Haren to the Cubs with the Dodgers still paying all of Haren’s $10 million, so I’m pretty sure the Marlins would have been willing to trade Martin Prado back to the Yankees, considering the Yankees were already paying $3 million of his $11 million salary this season and next.

The Yankees traded for Dustin Ackley, designated Garrett Jones for assignment, put Michael Pineda on the DL, called up Luis Severino, put Ackley on the DL and re-signed Jones. Those were the Yankees’ trade deadline moves. Essentially, they did nothing. Ackley would have been the same or worse than Jones, Drew and Brendan Ryan and Severino replaces Pineda, so basically, everything cancels each other out.

https://twitter.com/Timbo367/status/630482347666862080

On July 31, the Yankees had a six-game lead in the AL East. Today, that lead is 1 1/2 games. In the span of nine games, the Yankees managed to blow 75 percent of their lead and now they are a bad road trip in Cleveland and Toronto from being in second place in the division and suddenly in the wild-card game.

But since I was asked … If the Yankees play .500 baseball the rest of the season and go 26-26, here is what the rest of the AL East would have to do just to tie them: Toronto 26-23, Baltimore 31-21, Tampa Bay 31-19, Boston 37-13. That closed quickly.

There is this rhetoric that even after the weekend and even after going 1-4 in their last five games that the Yankees are still in first place. That’s nice, but like I said in that tweet, it’s like being up $1,000 at a casino and giving $950 back and still technically being “up”. The Yankees still have a lead in the division, but from where it was a week ago, or even three days ago, it doesn’t feel like they do.

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Blogs • Yankees

Jun 22, 2015

Alex Rodriguez and the 3,000th Hit Ball

If I had caught A-Rod’s 3,000th hit, I would have returned it. Why? Because what am I going to do with A-Rod’s 3,000th hit? Put it on my mantle as if it’s my 3,000th hit?

Alex Rodriguez

I was fortunate to be at Yankee Stadium on Aug. 4, 2007 for Alex Rodriguez’s 500th home run, at Yankees Stadium on Aug. 4, 2010 for his 600th home run, at Fenway Park on May 1, 2015 for his 660th home run and at Yankee Stadium on May 7, 2015 for his 661st home run. So when I decided to not go to the Stadium on Friday night with A-Rod’s next chance at reaching 3,000 career hits, I watched from home for history to be made.

A-Rod’s first-inning solo home run off Justin Verlander made him the 28th player in baseball history with 3,000 hits, doing it in the best way possible, the way Derek Jeter did nearly four years ago. But looking back on the moment, A-Rod would have been better off with a seeing-eye single between short and third or a broken-bat bloop over the the first baseman’s head or a swinging bunt down the the third-base line because hitting a home run where A-Rod hit it was the worst imaginable result.

If I had caught A-Rod’s 3,000th hit, I would have returned it. Why? Because what am I going to do with A-Rod’s 3,000th hit? Put it on my mantle as if it’s my 3,000th hit? Show off A-Rod’s ball like I achieved something by being lucky enough to have it land in my hands? I would return it to A-Rod, after shaking the legend’s hand and asking him to join my Central Park Softball League team upon retirement. But before that I would hand over a list of demands to the Yankees front office:

1. I want to take batting practice with the team at the next home game, shag fly balls and throw a bullpen session. I would take jersey number 86 (Sidney Crosby/Patrick Kane style) since all of the single-digit numbers are retired and Masahiro Tanaka wears 19.

2. I want Legends season tickets. Yes, I love and enjoy sitting in 203, but sitting between the bases for free every game would be more enjoyable.

3. I want a night of beer and baseball storytelling with Ken Singleton, David Cone and Paul O’Neill.

4. I want Stephen Drew designated for assignment. The Yankees have proved they aren’t going to go with my plan of moving Drew back to shortstop, playing either Jose Pirela or Rob Refsnyder at second and benching Didi Gregorius, so the only move is to DFA Drew.

5. I want to trade Nathan Eovaldi and Garrett Jones back to the Marlins for David Phelps and Martin Prado.

Those would be my demands, and once they are met, then I would gladly give A-Rod his ball. If he wants to throw some cash my way, or let me join his entourage (which would likely be just me), I wouldn’t say no. But unfortunately, for me, and more unfortunately for A-Rod and the Yankees, I didn’t catch A-Rod’s 3,000th hit.

Of all the people in the world, Zack Hample (known as “Foul Ball Guy”) would be everyone’s last pick to catch a meaningful home run. A 37-year-old baseball collector, who still brings his glove to games, has made a life out of catching and collecting everything from batting practice balls to foul balls to balls ticketed for a kid’s hands that he has stepped in front of and taken. So of course A-Rod’s 3,000th hit would be a home run and of course out of all the hands it could have landed in at Yankee Stadium, it landed in Hample’s, who was supposedly in the wrong seats, waiting there with his glove like a Little Leaguer taking in big league action, all while wearing a hat with the MLB logo on it.

Hample has said he has no plans to give the ball to A-Rod, because in his words, “It’s kind of like, well, I don’t like you and I have something you want and you can’t have it. I wanted you to not take steroids and be the greatest of all time and you disappointed me.”

Those are real-life words from Hample, who apparently has the mentality of so many nerd beat writers and reporters that feel lied to and disrespected because a baseball player and entertainer that they don’t know outside of asking him questions with a microphone in his face used performance-enhancing drugs. Hample, like those with Hall of Fame vote, feel as though A-Rod owed it to them (as if he owes them anything) to not make the choices in his baseball career he has made, which is an opinion so insane I can’t even wrap my head around it. How dare a baseball player who once signed a 10-year, $252 million contract and opted out of it to sign a 10-year, $275 million contract let everyone down. We should all expect more out of someone who made $197,530.86 per game for two years (2009 and 2010) to play baseball.

Now Hample is doing every TV and radio interview he can, thinking he is the celebrity in the situation and believing he is the one who achieved 3,000 hits with an opposite-field home run rather than a grown man wearing a glove at an MLB game, who happened to be in the right place (which was actually the wrong place for his ticket stub) at the right time. So the “baseball collector” who is holding A-Rod’s 3,000th hit hostage for either very strange (he’s 37 and collects baseballs), very odd (he thinks A-Rod should have not disappointed him personally) or very scummy (he wants a payday from the Yankees since collecting baseballs probably isn’t keeping the power on) reasons.

Maybe Hample will continue to use someone else’s personal achievement as his own crowning moment or maybe he will ultimately decide to return it to A-Rod and the Yankees once their price tag grows high enough for him. Either way, now on it’s third day, this charade has gone on for too long and Hample is the one everyone should be disappointed in.

 

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Blogs • Yankees

Jun 2, 2015

I Still Miss Robinson Cano

Despite his early-season struggles and the eight-plus years and money left on his deal, I still miss want Robinson Cano and wish he were a Yankee.

Robinson Cano

I never wanted Robinson Cano to leave. I said as much on Dec. 7, 2013 when his signing a 10-year deal with the Mariners became real. Coming off an 85-win postseason-less year, the Yankees let the best player on the team, in his prime, leave for money. Just money. The one thing that is supposed to separate the Yankees from every other team.

Cano left the Yankees after a .314/.383/.516 season in which he hit 27 home runs and 107 RBIs when his protection varied between Travis Hafner, Vernon Wells, Ichiro Suzuki and Lyle Overbay. He left for a 10-year, $240 million offer the Yankees were never going to give him, left the New York City life for the Seattle life and left behind Yankee Stadium for Safeco Field. But what he really left was a big gaping hole at second base and in the middle of the Yankees’ lineup.

Despite missing 14 games total over the previous seven seasons, being a career .309 hitter with four consecutive Silver Sluggers, two Gold Gloves and finishing in the Top 6 in MVP voting in the last four years, the Yankees decided to lowball their homegrown star with a $175 million offer while gladly overpaying Jacoby Ellsbury with $153 million. So instead of Cano continuing to hit third for the Yankees for the next decade, the Yankees turned a Top 5 hitter in the game, the best all-around second baseman in baseball and a Hall of Fame candidate into Ellsbury, Brian McCann and Carlos Beltran.

Since Cano’s departure, second base has been played by Brian Roberts, Brendan Ryan, Yangervis Solarte, Dean Anna, Kelly Johnson, Stephen Drew and Gregorio Petit, a revolving door of reclamation projects and career bench players that have all failed and failed miserably. Roberts was designated for assignment after half a season; Ryan has been hurt and an offensive disaster; Solarte was traded for Brandon McCarthy; Anna may or may not be in baseball anymore (just kidding, he’s playing Triple-A for the Cardinals); Johnson was traded to the Red Sox in a garbage for garbage deal for Drew; Drew hit .150 for the Yankees last year and hasn’t seen .200 this year and hasn’t seen .190 since April 27; Petit was about as good as a 30-year-old with 62 career games entering this season could be. The Yankees remain too scared to permanently put Drew on the bench or move Drew to short and put Didi Gregorius on the bench and let either Jose Pirela or Rob Refsnyder become the full-time second baseman. This is due to stubbornness and also being worried that Drew might find his .253 career average stroke one of these days even if there’s a better chance of finding a section of seats between the bases at the Stadium completely filled.

The Yankees needed and still need Robinson Cano and Robinson Cano needed and still needs the Yankees. Unfortunately, both were too stupid to recognize this with the Yankees worried about pinching their pennies for their superstar and Cano worried about getting every last penny he could in free agency. Financially, both are better off in their current state, with the Yankees continuning to up the price of everything at the Stadium even without Cano at second and Cano making $24 million per year last year, this year and for the next eight years. But from an on-the-field product perspective and from a wins perspective, which is what every decision should be based upon, the Yankees are without their homegrown talent who was born to hit in the Bronx and their homegrown star is struggling for a second year to find his power stroke for a once-again underachieving team which is closer to last place than first place in the AL West.

In a perfect world, the Yankees would all go back to the beginning of the 2013 season and never let Cano hit free agency. They would never offer him a disrespectful $175 million, while gladly opening up the bank and handing a blank check to Jacoby Ellsbury based off one of his six-plus seasons in the league. Cano would be a Yankee right now, would have been one last year, and would continue to be one for the remainder of his career. Brett Gardner and either Martin Prado or Chase Headley could hit in front of him, Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira behind him and either Stephen Drew or Didi Gregorius wouldn’t be on the team. (Just writing it out brought a smile to my face.)

Unfortunately, we don’t live in a perfect world. We live in one where the Steinbrenners and Brian Cashman have made a series of bad decisions based off finances and incorrect talent and scouting evaluations. As a result, we’re left with a Yankees team that is currently first place in a division that will likely be won by a team with a mid-80s win total. It’s not a great Yankees team and compared to other teams in recent years, it’s not even that good, but it’s good enough to win the AL East in a down year, something that AL East hasn’t experienced in forever.

Maybe one day Cano will be back in the Bronx the way Alfonso Soriano made his way back when the Cubs no longer wanted to pay him and the Yankees need a power presence. There will come a day when the Mariners no longer want to pay Cano and with him hitting .246/.290/.337 with two home runs and 16 RBIs, they probably don’t want to pay him now. Maybe that day will come soon when the Mariners need salary relief and the Yankees can do what they should have done all along and pay Cano for the rest of his career.

This week, Cano said, “I would never regret my decision,” but he must and the Yankees must regret theirs. They needed each other and still do. Cano must miss hitting at the Stadium for half the season and the Yankees must miss having the best second baseman in baseball in the middle of their infield and the middle of their lineup. I know I still miss him.

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Blogs • Yankees

Apr 17, 2015

Thank You, Brian Cashman for Ruining the Yankees

Every time Brian Cashman talks I feel like Dunphy in Outside Providence when he says to Mr. Funderburk mid-sentence, “Oh will you just shut the f-ck up.” Everything that comes out Cashman’s mouth is just

Brian Cashman

Every time Brian Cashman talks I feel like Dunphy in Outside Providence when he says to Mr. Funderburk mid-sentence, “Oh will you just shut the f-ck up.”

Everything that comes out Cashman’s mouth is just a long way of making an excuse. Through nine horrific games this season, Cashman has wondered why the defense has been so bad or the offense hasn’t been there or the pitching has been inconsistent. He has cited small sample sizes rather than admitting that when you put enough baseball players together that suck at baseball, the team is going to suck.

At 3-6, the Yankees have lost all three of their series to open the season, are three games back already in the division, and if things don’t turn around this weekend in Tampa Bay before heading to Detroit for four games followed by the first part of the Subway Series and a series in Boston in two weeks, the 2015 Yankees might not make it to Cinco de Mayo let alone Memorial Day.

Before the season started Cashman said to his team, “Be a good enough team to get to the playoffs, allow me to tweak in-season to make it good enough to win a World Series.’’ He believed before the season that the team he constructed could be good enough to compete for a playoff spot, and if they were to, he could get them to the World Series, apparently with his magic trade powers. The same powers that have Didi Gregorius looking like he belongs playing in an Independent League while Shane Greene is 2-0 for the Tigers thanks to back-to-back starts of eight scoreless innings.

The season might be 5.6 percent old and maybe before this road trip is over the season will have turned around. But so far, every fear I had about the 2015 Yankees has come true and then some. Everything that could have gone wrong has gone wrong. The offense comes and goes, the pitching is inconsistent, the defense is an embarrassment and on Thursday night, the bullpen joined the club with a sixth-inning implosion to cost the Yankees the game.

It didn’t have to be this way. The same bad lineup and shaky rotation you see every game and will see for the next five-plus months didn’t have to look like this. Let’s go back in time and look at what Brian Cashman could have done differently to not put the Yankees in this spot.

The Yankees missed the playoffs in 2013 because of devastating injuries to Derek Jeter, Curtis Granderson, Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira. That led to the following players playing the most games at each position:

C – Chris Stewart
1B – Lyle Overbay
2B – Robinson Cano
3B – Eduardo Nunez
SS – Jayson Nix
LF – Vernon Wells
CF – Brett Gardner
RF – Ichiro Suzuki
DH – Travis Hafner

After years of fortunate health, the Yankees’ fortunes ran out in 2013 and the team missed the playoffs for the first time since 2008 and the second time since 1993.

Then came the 2013 offseason.

The Yankees’ missed postseason, coupled with the Red Sox winning the World Series set the front office into a panic, throwing out their plans of staying below the luxury-tax threshold they had talked about for so long. They decided to lowball Robinson Cano with a BS offer and instead gave Jacoby Ellsbury (a bigger-name Brett Gardner) a seven-year, $153 million deal. Despite catcher being the one position of depth in the organization, they gave Brian McCann a five-year, $85 million deal for his 30-, 31-, 32-, 33- and 34-year-old seasons. After watching Carlos Beltran’s postseason performance and after years of dealing with Nick Swisher’s postseaon failures, they gave Beltran a three-year, $15 million deal for his 37-, 38- and 39-year-old seasons, nine years after they should have signed Beltran.

The 2014 Yankees’ payroll was $197.2 million.

Let’s say they don’t sign Jacoby Ellsbury. The payroll drops to $176.1 million.

Let’s say they don’t sign Brian McCann. The payroll drops to $159.1 million.

Let’s say they don’t sign Carlos Beltran. The payroll drops to $144.1 million.

Let’s say they re-sign Robinson Cano and give him the contract the Mariners gave him (10 years, $24 million). The payroll increases to $168.1 million.

Without those three and with Cano, the payroll would have been $29.1 million less.

The 2014 Opening Day lineup would have been:

C – Francisco Cervelli/John Ryan Murphy
1B – Mark Teixeira
2B – Robinson Cano
3B – Kelly Johnson
SS – Derek Jeter
LF – Alfonso Soriano
CF – Brett Gardner
RF – Ichiro Suzuki
DH – Someone else on the 25-man roster

That lineup isn’t exactly the offense we got used to over the last 15-plus seasons, but it’s also not that far removed from the actual 2014 offense.

The rotation stays the same as it was with CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, Masahiro Tanaka, Ivan Nova and Michael Pineda.

I wanted Brian McCann on the Yankees because I had to sit through a lot of Chris Stewart and Austin Romine in 2013. But it didn’t make a lot of sense for the Yankees to pay a catcher $85 million for his 30-34 seasons when, once again, catcher was the one position of depth in the organization at the time.

Ichiro ended up playing in 143 games, so it was like he was an everyday player anyway.

Soriano only played in 67 games (238 plate appearances) and hit .221 with six home runs and 23 RBIs before he was released. Soriano was supposed to be the Yankees’ designated hitter. He was supposed to play in the outfield only to give others a day off. But because of the old, brittle signing of Carlos Beltran and having the softest player in all of baseball in Mark Teixeira, Soriano lost out on being the full-time DH and was relegated to infrequent at-bats as part of an outfield rotation. The Yankees put Soriano, a career everyday player, in a position to fail and when he did, they let him go. Beltran hit .223 with 15 home runs and 49 RBIs. Soriano could have those numbers or close to them if he played the full season.

The actual 2014 Yankees missed the playoffs, so if this team had missed it, nothing changes. The only thing that changes is that they are in a much better financial position for 2015 and beyond. Let’s look at this past offseason and this season had that Yankees roster been constructed.

The current 2015 Yankees payroll is $217.8 million.

Before we continue, remember the 2014 Yankees traded Johnson for Stephen Drew, traded Yangervis Solarte for Chase Headley and Vidal Nuno for Brandon McCarthy.

Let’s say they re-sign Headley, sign Andrew Miller, don’t trade Shane Greene for Didi Gregorius (their salaries cancel each other out) and don’t trade Martin Prado and David Phelps for Nathan Eovaldi. Add $11 million to the 2015 payroll for Prado (Side note: the Yankees are paying $3 million of Prado’s salary in 2015 and 2016 to play for Miami. No big deal.) and add $1.4 million for Phelps. That brings the payroll to $230.2 million. Then subtract $3.3 million for Eovaldi. That brings the total to $226.9 million.

Let’s say they re-sign David Robertson for the contract the White Sox gave him (four years, $46 million). Add $10 million to the payroll. The total is $236.9 million.

Let’s say they re-sign Brandon McCarthy for the contract the Dodgers gave him (four years, $48 million). Add $11 million to the payroll. The total is $247.9 million.

Add in Cano’s $24 million. The total is $271.9 million.

Now subtract McCann’s $17 million. The total is $254.9 million.

Subtract Ellsbury’s $21.1 million. The total is $233.8 million.

Subtract Beltran’s $15 million. The total is $218.8 million.

After all of that, the 2015 payroll is $1 million more than it is actually is in real life.

Here is the 2015 Opening Day lineup after that.

C – John Ryan Murphy
1B – Mark Teixeira
2B – Robinson Cano
3B – Chase Headley
SS – Stephen Drew
LF – Martin Prado
CF – Brett Gardner
RF – Chris Young (or maybe Jose Pirela or Rob Refsnyder?)
DH – Alex Rodriguez

No, I still wouldn’t have wanted Drew on this team, but guess what, he’s already on it, so nothing changes. Except that the rest of the team is better around Drew.

And here’s the rotation (in no particular order):

Masahiro Tanaka
Michael Pineda
CC Sabathia
Brandon McCarthy
Shane Greene

For $1 million more, the Yankees could have Robinson Cano hitting third in their lineup instead of Carlos Beltran. Brandon McCarthy and Shane Greene at the back of their rotation rather than Nathan Eovaldi and Adam Warren. They could still have Martin Prado on the roster to play wherever he is needed. They could have a back-end of the bullpen of Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller and David Robertson. All for $1 million more.

Thank you, Brian Cashman. Thank you for ruining the Yankees.

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Blogs • Opening Day • Yankees

Apr 1, 2015

The Season of Optimism for the Yankees

The only way to think about the 2015 Yankees is positively or it’s going to be a long summer, which makes it easier to do over/unders for the season.

Alex Rodriguez

I’m officially declaring the 2015 Yankees season as the Season of Optimism. Right now there are so many question marks and unknowns surrounding this team at every position other than left field (Brett Gardner), center field (Jacoby Ellsbury) and third base (Chase Headley).

Every starter in the rotation is either a health or performance concern. First base, second base, shortstop, right field and designated hitter are the same. The bullpen is the one clear strength that no one should worry about, but even there, a closer hasn’t been named and aside from Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller, none of the other hard-throwing relievers have pitched for the Yankees before. Knowing all of that, the only thing to be about this team is optimistic because if you’re not then you might in for a long season. How long this optimism will last? Well, I guess that depends on the health of Masahiro Tanaka’s right elbow and Michael Pineda’s right shoulder.

This optimism has led me to create some over/unders for the 2015 Yankees and for most of the numbers I created, my picks for each are about being as positive as possible.

CC Sabathia – 4.50 ERA
Did I set the ERA for a pitcher making $23 million this season (and $25 million in 2016 and possibly 2017) at the equivalent of a quality start? Yes. Yes, I did. That’s a big drop off from the pitcher who averaged 18 wins and a 3.22 ERA per season in his first four years with the Yankees (2009-2012).

Just being healthy isn’t going to cut it for Sabathia. He needs to be healthy and good. Not great like he once was, just good and that means better than he was in 2013 and 2014. His numbers this spring have been bad and the three home runs allowed in 4 2/3 innings is reminiscent of what made him bad in 2013 and 2014. With this offense, he’s not going to rack up the wins despite pitching poorly like Randy Johnson did in 2006 when he won 17 games with a 5.00 ERA. Sabathia is going to need to find a way to get outs without overpowering hitters the way his former teammate Andy Pettitte and supposed best friend Cliff Lee were able to do. (Let’s hope he talked to them.) Given the health concerns of Tanaka and Pined every pitch they throw, Sabathia is going to need to be relied on. That makes me uncomfortable, but … optimism! Under.

Mark Teixeira – .245 AVG.
Mark Teixeira hit .216 last season. .216! The year before coming to the Yankees he hit .308. In his first season with the Yankees, he hit .292. I thought it was bad when he dropped to .256 in 2010 and started transforming into Jason Giambi 2.0 with only the short porch in right on his mind and no care for ever attempting to the hit the ball the other way as a left-handed hitter. But now we’re way past being Jason Giambi 2.0 and Teixeira is looking more like Adam Dunn or Mark Reynolds with less power.

For Teixeira to hit over .245, he will have to remain healthy, not miss games with wrist or other varying injuries, be willing to hit the ball to the left side of the field when he’s hitting left-handed and not think that he can take any pitcher over the 314 FT. sign in right field. There’s a better chance that the Yankees replicate their 1998 season than there is that Teixeira does those things. Under.

Jacoby Ellsbury – 16.5 HOME RUNS
I used to talk about Brady Anderson and ask which one of these doesn’t belong: 21, 13, 12, 16, 50, 18, 18, 24, 19, 8? Those are Anderson’s home run totals for his full seasons in the majors and that 50 from 1996 looks more out of place than the Martini Bar inside Yankee Stadium.

When it comes to Ellsbury, you can ask the same question about which of these doesn’t belong: 9, 8, 32, 9 and 16? I’m not sure how Ellsbury hit .321/.376/.552 with 32 home runs and 105 RBIs to finish second in the AL MVP voting to Justin Verlander, but I really wish he would become that player again. Ellsbury got a pass last year despite having a down year because he was the “best” hitter on a team full of bad hitters. I don’t think that .271/.328/.419 is what the Yankees thought they were going to get for Ellsbury’s 30-year-old season when they gave him seven years and $153 million.

Everyone kept saying that Ellsbury’s swing combined with the short porch would mean at least 20-25 home runs playing 81 games at Yankee Stadium. I’m hoping that 2013 will be Ellsbury’s version of Carlos Beltran’s 2005 or he will become Johnny Damon’s 2006 and 2009. Over.

Brett Gardner – 30 STOLEN BASES
Brett Gardner’s baserunning career has been a disappointment. After stealing 47 and 49 bases in 2010 and 2011 respectively, he only stole 24 in 2013 and 21 in 2014. He’s supposed to be the cheaper version of Jacoby Ellsbury and not the power hitter he thinks he became thanks to three nights in Texas last July. Gardner needs to get back to being a threat on the bases and not someone who is scared of every pickoff move in the league. Over.

Alex Rodriguez – 100 GAMES PLAYED
I have big plans for A-Rod. Not the kind of plans that include the 54 home runs and 156 RBIs from 2007. But something better than 2012 when he 18 home runs and 57 RBIs (though I would sign up for that right now). In order for A-Rod to make my plans happen, he’s going to need to stay healthy and play a lot and that means more than 100 games, which he has only done once (2012) in the last four years.

But this is the Season of Optimism and that means thinking A-Rod is going to play a full season and be productive and be everything that every writer from the Daily News and Post didn’t think he would or could be. Over.

Stephen Drew – STILL A YANKEE ON JUNE 1
I like how Brian Cashman was so adamant this spring about how Drew is the Yankees’ starting second baseman no matter what while he said Alex Rodriguez had to earn a spot on the team. Unfortunately, for my DFA Stephen Drew, #GiveRobTheJob and #SayOkToJose campaigns, Stephen Drew has started hitting a little and is now up to .244/.306/.444 this spring.

Drew is going to be a Yankee on Opening Day. He is going to get announced in the starting lineup and jog out to the first-base line, which is something I wished I wouldn’t have to see given that he hit .150/.219/.271 for the Yankees last year.

If Drew doesn’t hit the way he hasn’t most of March and the way he didn’t in 46 games for the Yankees last year and the way he didn’t in 39 games for the Red Sox last year and the way he didn’t in the 2013 postseason, then the Yankees will release him and eat the remaining money of his $5 million. And then we will finally get to see Rob Refsnyder or Jose Pirela play second base, which is what we should have seen all along. The Yankees have been trying to patch up the holes on their sinking boat with players like Drew for the last three years, but at some point you just need a new boat. Rob Refsnyder and Jose Pirela are that new boat. Under.

Chase Headley – .350 OBP
When the Yankees traded for Chase Headley, everyone looked at that .286-31-115 season from 2012 and hoped that he would find that hitting as a Yankee. But it was the Padres’ willingness to trade an impending free agent hitting .229/.296/.355 with cash for just Yangervis Solarte and Rafael De Paula.

What stuck out the most about Headley’s time with the Yankees in 2014 was his .371 on-base percentage, which was 24 points better than his career .347 on-base percentage and close to his 2011 (.374) and 2012 (.376) seasons in San Diego. If Headley can get on base the way he did for 58 games last year, it will make up for the lack of power the Yankees have at third. (Unless their former third baseman and now DH can make up the difference.) Over.

Carlos Beltran – 20.5 HOME RUNS
Carlos Beltran is one year removed from hitting 24 home runs and two years removed from hitting 32. The last time he didn’t hit at least 22 home runs in a full season was when he hit 16 in his first season with the Mets (2005), which could have been him trying to live up to and prove his his $119 million contract since he hit 41 the following year.

The Yankees signed Carlos Beltran 10 offseasons too late, he’s going to turn 38 on April 24 and after his elbow injury last season that kept him from playing the field and from hitting for power and needed surgery on in the offseason, I’m not sure that believing in Beltran is the best use of anyone’s energy. Under.

Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller – 40.5 SAVES
The Yankees still haven’t decided who their closer is and maybe that’s because Joe Girardi has decided to go with no closer and use whichever reliever a particular situation calls for? OK, so there’s no chance of that happening, but I can dream.

It would make the most sense to have Betances and Miller ready for any and all situations and not just save opportunities for one or both of them in order to shorten games for a team whose rotation is shaky past Tanaka and Pineda and is shaky even with them given their health histories.

Taking the over here means the Yankees are winning games. Sure, they’re winning close games, but they’re winning them. Over.

Nathan Eovaldi – 11.5 WINS
This is Nathan Eovaldi’s line from this spring: 13.2 IP, 10 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 14 K, 0.66 ERA, 0.732 WHIP. Eovaldi isn’t going to keep those kind of numbers up since that would translate to the best starting pitching performance in the history of baseball and the best season of any athlete in any sport in the history of sports. Wayne Gretzky’s 92-120-212 season from 1981-82 wouldn’t even be in the same stratosphere. Since Eovaldi isn’t going to go the entire season without walking a batter, it’s time to think more realistically.

Those 14 strikeouts in 13 2/3 innings this spring is what everyone should be looking for from Eovaldi. He has never come close to striking out one hitter per inning in his five seasons in the league and as a hard-throwing starter, it’s a little odd. One Mets fan told me he’s going to be the Yankees’ Mike Pelfrey as someone who throws mid-to-high-90s and doesn’t strike anyone out. But after trading Martin Prado, who was looking to be a vital piece to the 2015 Yankees and David Phelps, who the organization has loved, for Eovaldi, let’s hope they’re right that time with Larry Rothschild can get the most out of his untapped potential. Over.

Michael Pineda – 160 INNINGS PITCHED
In the last three years, Michael Pineda has thrown 76 1/3 innings in the majors. But like the Yankees’ other front-end starter, if Pineda doesn’t stay healthy, well, there are a lot of other things to do from April to September other than watch Yankees baseball. Over.

Masahiro Tanaka – 27.5 STARTS
Masahiro Tanaka made 20 starts last season. In Japan, starting in 2013 and going back to 2007, he made 27, 22, 27, 20, 24, 24 and 28 starts (as part of a six-man rotation). So if Tanaka is going to make more than 27.5 starts this season, he’s going to do something he’s only ever done once in his life and he’s going to to do it in the season following a season in which every prominent surgeon had to examine an MRI of his right elbow. Thinking Tanaka is going to pitch the full season is a little overly optimistic, but that’s the only way to be with this team or it’s going to be a long summer. Over.

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