Cliff Lee – Page 3 – Keefe To The City

May 14, 2014

The Subway Series Makes Its Stop at Citi Field

The Yankees were swept at home in the first half of the Subway Series and now head to Queens searching for answers against the Mets.

So far the Subway Series hasn’t gone as I had hoped. The Yankees scored 14 runs in the Yankee Stadium portion of the series, but gave up 21 as the bullpen couldn’t keep it close on Monday and then Vidal Nuno and the bullpen ruined everything on Tuesday. The Yankees have now lost six straight to the Mets and the last time the Yankees beat the Mets was June 24, 2012. Boone Logan won that game for the Yankees and Rafael Soriano saved it.

With the Yankees and Mets continuing the Subway Series at Citi Field, Matt Callan of Amazin’ Avenue joined me to talk about the growing positivity for Mets fans, how Curtis Granderson is fitting in on the other side of town and what Matt Harvey means to the Mets both on and off the field.

Keefe: The Yankees came into the Subway Series on a two-game losing streak thanks to some bad starting pitching in Milwaukee. With the Mets losing eight of nine entering the series, I thought this four-game set came at the right time and would put the Yankees back on track. So much for that.

After the Yankee Stadium portion of the Subway Series, the Yankees have now lost four straight and are back to .500 for the first time since April 12 when they were 6-6. Fortunately for them, no one in the AL East really wants to run away with the division and the Yankees are just 1.5 games back of the Orioles for first.

There is usually a negative attitude and aura around the Mets from their fans and over the last six or so years I guess there has been a reason. But this year, even with Matt Harvey out after undergoing Tommy John surgery, there seems to be a rare sense of positivity around the Mets, even for their most pessimistic fans. Do you feel like that’s true?

Callan: I think beating the Yankees helps for positivity. As much as you want to pretend that that’s not a big deal, it’s always kind of a big deal. I think there is a certain amount of positivity right now due to that, and due to the call-ups of some hyped young arms like Rafael Montero and Jake de Grom.

However, I also think that the mood around any team (not just the Mets) shifts so quickly now, in the age of Twitter, etc., when a team’s outlook is judged almost on an at-bat-to-at-bat basis. If you asked a Mets fans how they felt about the team on Sunday afternoon, when they were in danger of being swept for the second straight series and losing nine of their last 10 games, they probably would’ve said “lousy.” And if the Mets drop the next two to the Yankees at home, they’ll very quickly forget the two wins in the Bronx. That’s not a Mets fan thing so much as a fan thing.

More than anything, I think Mets fans have accepted that the team is still not ready contend, and so any sign of life is greeted as a treat rather than taken as an entitlement. Not sure that translates into positivity, but it’ll do.

Keefe: Curtis Granderson was a good Yankee. He was brought in to be a quick-fix for the Yankees’ outfield depth and that resulted in trading Austin Jackson. He hit 84 home runs between 2011 and 2012 and averaged 29 per 162 games during his four years in the Bronx. Had the Yankees successfully traded for Cliff Lee in July 2010, Granderson would have gotten the ring he is still looking for and had he helped out offensively in the playoffs in 2011 or 2012, maybe he could have gotten another one.

Granderson was brought to the Mets to give the team power and some middle-of-the-order presence as well as experience and leadership. However, he was made for new Yankee Stadium, as we just saw once again on both Monday and Tuesday. But Citi Field isn’t the Stadium and Granderson has just one home run in 71 at-bats there this year. He has been struggling to provide consistent offense through the first month and a half of the season, but what are your early feelings on Granderson as a Met?

Callan: I’ve always liked Granderson for simple “seems like a nice guy” reasons. I personally didn’t have enormous expectations from him for many of the same reasons you mention. He is what he is at this point in his career: an aging outfielder who strikes out a lot but can still hit home runs under favorable circumstances.

There are fans who expected more of him, of course, and he’s gotten some rough treatment already from fans who’ve dubbed him Jason Bay 2.0. The big difference between Granderson and Bay is that Bay completely fell off a cliff, whereas Granderson is still exactly the same player he was, possessing skills that don’t translate well to Citi Field.

The Mets’ front office still hasn’t figured out how to build a lineup that can win at Citi Field. I doubt Sandy Alderson thought he’d solved that puzzle when signing Granderson, and I doubt Granderson thought he was the answer either. They both know he’s a bridge to some hypothetical right fielder of the future. Whoever that is, hopefully he has a better idea how to score runs in that ballpark.

Keefe: The Mets had to make a decision when it came to Ike Davis and Lucas Duda at first base and for now and for the future of the position and the Mets chose to trade Davis to Pittsburgh and keep Duda. Since the trade with the Pirates, Davis has hit .273/.368/.394 with one home run and seven RBIs and Duda has hit .262/.360/.369 with one home run and nine RBIs. The production has been as even as possible and it looks like the Mets would have ended up with the same result as of now no matter who they picked. But the decision to go with Duda over Davis won’t be decided for a while.

Were you a fan of the move to trade Davis and keep Duda, or should it have gone the other way?

Callan: It was clear one of them had to go, and it’s probably for the best that Ike Davis was the one who went. His struggles at the plate were almost soul crushing. It might be the most helpless I’ve ever seen a guy look at the plate, at least one who used to tear the cover off the ball.

There were a lot of contributing factors to his decline, like a weird leg injury that knocked him out for a year, and a bout of Valley Fever, which never goes away and can be quite debilitating. (Conor Jackson had to quit baseball altogether after contracting the disease.) The Mets also announced their intention to trade him in the offseason so loudly they might as well have honked AWOOGA horns everywhere they went. I think everyone involved realized that whatever potential he once had, Ike and the Mets were never meant to be.

Lucas Duda still strikes me as, at best, a DH in a league without that position available. But of the two, I think he’s more likely to succeed in a Mets uniform.

Keefe: Matt Harvey is the future and future face of the Mets. Despite being just 25 and having pitched in 36 games in the majors, he has shown the ability to be a true ace in the league. However, what comes with being an ace and a pitcher and a franchise face in New York is everything that comes with being a celebrity. Because Harvey is the most important Met his off-the-field actions have been closely followed since he isn’t able to give anyone anything to talk about regarding him on the field this year.

What are your feelings about Matt Harvey the pitcher? How big of a deal is it for him to return to the Mets healthy and be the pitcher he was pre-injury? And how sick are you of hearing about his off-the-field life?

Callan: Matt Harvey was the best and worst thing about the 2013 Mets. He was the best because for a few brief, shining months he was among the best pitchers in baseball. The Mets have touted their prospects as their future for the past few seasons, but Harvey was the first one to make it to the bigs and not only contribute, but dominate. His starts became events, and when he pitched, Citi Field came alive for some of the very few times since it opened. There was one awesome night when he outdueled Stephen Strasburg and a very loud crowd chanted the Nationals’ ace off the mound with yells of HAR-VEY’S BET-TER.

His Tommy John surgery was, obviously, the worst thing about 2013 because it robbed him from us not only the rest of last season, but all of this year, too. His injury was also terrible because it provided a smokescreen to the Wilpons. Rather than be forced to put up or shut up and finally make a true accounting of their financial situation, the Mets’ owners could point to Harvey (explicitly or implicitly) as a reason for punting on 2014.

The return of a healthy Harvey would immediately rejuvenate the team and its fanbase, and would also go a long way to forcing the Wilpons to either spend on the team or finally admit that they can’t. Harvey’s status will tell us pretty much everything about the Mets in 2015. So yeah, he’s kind of a big deal.

Being a huge sports star in New York, Harvey has to deal with tabloid nonsense. I don’t worry about it in his case because it all seems to roll off his back. I do wish at times he’d tone things down, just to give the Post less ammunition, but he’s obviously not a tone-it-down kinda guy.

Keefe: This October it will have been eight years since the Mets last made the postseason. Aside from the most optimistic Mets fans, no one pictured them as a team that would contend for the playoffs in 2014 and it was viewed more as a year to give their young players experience and build for the future and create an organization that could sustain success. But just three games back in the NL East and with some roster changes from Sandy Alderson, maybe the Mets can be a surprise story this summer.

What were your expectations for the Mets coming into the season and have they changed with the 19-19 start?

Callan: I expected very little of the Mets going into this season, based on Matt Harvey’s injury and their unwillingness to spend over the winter. My expectations haven’t really changed at all, even though they continue to hover around .500. They have been more fun to watch at times than I expected, and the starting pitching has been better than advertised even without Harvey. But the lineup is still pretty brutal, and the bullpen always teeters on disaster. I’m mostly looking forward to the eventual call up of Noah Syndegaard and a few other pitchers from their farm system. If those guys can contribute this year and get some experience for some hopefully not-too-distant contending future, then I’ll be happy.

Blogs • Email Exchanges • Yankees

Apr 29, 2014

The Yankees and Mariners Have More Connections Than Just Robinson Cano

Robinson Cano is back in the Bronx for the first time since signing with the Mariners and I still don’t blame him for leaving the Yankees for $240 million.

Robinson Cano is back in the Bronx for the first time since signing with the Seattle Mariners for 10 years and $240 million. When it comes to Cano’s decision to go to the highest bidder and saying the Yankees “disrespected” him, I’m still on his side. Cano would have been a Yankee if the Yankees really wanted him to be, but instead they chose to spend their money elsewhere. So far it’s worked out in their favor.

With the Yankees and Mariners meeting this week at the Stadium, I did an email exchange with Scott Weber of Lookout Landing to talk about Robinson Cano’s 10-year contract, what’s happened to Jesus Montero and if Mariners fan play out the way the Cliff Lee trade should have gone in their heads as much as I do.

Keefe: It’s going to be weird to see Robinson Cano playing against the Yankees for the first time on Tuesday night. Sure, I have already seen him in several games for the Mariners this season, but once you see him on the same field as the Yankees playing against the team he played nine seasons for, it will officially set it. Up to this point it has almost felt like he is just on the disabled list and we’re waiting for him to come back in the lineup. Unfortunately, that’s never going to happen.

Back in December when Cano chose the Mariners’ $240 million offer, I wrote this column based around the lyrics of Pearl Jam’s “Black” as I said goodbye to Cano. But I’m not mad at Cano, the same way I’m not mad at anyone who takes more money to do their job, especially when their former employer isn’t willing to up their dollars, or in this case, is more concerned about paying for outside talent. The Yankees could have afforded Cano if they weren’t so willing to overpay for Jacoby Ellsbury and Robinson Cano could have been a Yankee for life, if the Yankees really wanted him to be or cared for him to be. But now Cano is and will be a Mariner for 10 years, or until they trade him somewhere and agree to pay part of his salary.

What were your initial feelings on the Mariners’ negotiations with Cano and were you for the decision to sign him to such a lengthy and high-priced contract?

Weber: The Cano saga is really fairly simple to me. The Mariners have had trouble attracting free agents in the past thanks to stigmas about the pitcher-friendly ballpark and their recent string of failure on the field, so when they had a chance to sign a superstar, they just took it. They didn’t really need a second baseman as much as they needed a starting pitcher, first baseman, or outfielder, but there’s no guarantee you can land those players if you wait around. So, the Mariners blew Cano out of the water.

Nobody knows how he’ll age, but Cano profiles as such a pure, easy hitter that it’s likely he’ll be able to hold at least some sort of value in future years as a hitter. But I think we all know that his contract isn’t going to be worth it in years 6-10. For a franchise like Seattle, landing a guy like Cano is as much about changing the free agent culture as it is getting fair value in return. He’ll provide value in other ways to the franchise – at least that was surely the thought process. The money would have been wiser spent across multiple pieces, but the Mariners simply couldn’t plan like they could land the three pieces they wanted instead of Cano.

Keefe: I was excited for the Jesus Montero era in the Bronx after what he did in just 18 games during the 2011 regular season and then in the 2011 ALDS. I bought into the hype and Manny Ramirez-like comparisons and because of it, I wasn’t sure if I should be for or against the trade of him for Michael Pineda before the 2012 season. The Yankees did need young starting pitching and Pineda had been dominant for the majority of his rookie season, so I was fine with saying goodbye to what was supposed to be the the future heart of the order for the Yankees.

After the trade, Pineda spent the next two seasons not pitching and Montero spent that time regressing, getting sent down and then getting fat. But now Pineda has returned to his 2011 form (minus the pine tar disaster at Fenway) and Montero is playing in Triple-A.

What has happened to Jesus Montero since becoming a Mariner and how do you feel when you see Michael Pineda pitching like it’s 2011?

Weber: I’d like to see Pineda pitch without the pine tar before I anoint him back to form, but there’s no question that the Yankees look like they’re ahead on that trade now. For Montero, it was always about the bat, and if he could hit enough to stomach the defense. The bat was bad with flashes of brilliance, but the defense was miserable. Montero lacked basic fundamentals at the plate, all coming to a head when the Mariners lost a game on a force play at home by half a step. Montero’s positioning was set up for a sweep tag, with the wrong foot on the bag, glove side in. Had he been reaching out with the glove hand with his right foot on the plate, the Mariners might have salvaged that game. Basic stuff, just knowing the game situation and thinking about all possibilities before the pitch. It wasn’t long after that the Mariners bailed on Montero as a catcher, and not long after that he was popped with a 50-game suspension for his involvement with Biogenesis – after he repeatedly lied about it.

Then, Montero showed up to camp overweight, and the Mariners front office expressed their disappointment with him, reasonably so. But since then, he’s gone back to Triple-A, where he’s really hitting. He’s a first baseman and DH now, and while the power is impressive, the walk rate is not. He still has a lot to prove in order to get back into the conversation, but the Mariners don’t have any long-term options at 1B/DH. At the very least, he still probably has a future as a platoon bat in this league, and maybe more. He’s still only 24 years old, and doesn’t turn 25 until after the season is over. His future is up to him.

Keefe: Really, Jesus Montero should have been a Mariner long before he was traded to them after the 2011 season. He should have been one in July 2010 when the Yankees and Mariners seemed to have a deal in place that would have sent Cliff Lee to the Yankees and would have given the Yankees their second consecutive World Series. Instead a breakdown in talks because of Eduardo Nunez, who was DFA’d by the Yankees this season, and an injury to David Adams, who has played 43 games in the majors led to the Mariners sending Lee to the Rangers for Justin Smoak.

Do you ever think about what could have been if the Yankees and Mariners had completed their deal and Smoak never became a Mariner and Lee ended up in the Bronx? (I’m only wondering because I do daily.)

Weber: I’m not so sure you can automatically assign a World Series victory with Cliff Lee on the squad — Lee got shelled and lost both his games in the 2010 World Series — but surely it’s a move lamented by the Yankees. I’ve never been much of a Justin Smoak believer after his first two seasons, but there’s no doubt he’s provided more value than Jesus Montero has at this point, even if his contributions and eternal tease have prevented the Mariners from moving on. I don’t think about it much because both sides would have ended up pretty bad for Seattle. What I do think about is how the Mariners managed to get Cliff Lee in the first place for a bag of peanuts, and how they promptly managed to lose 101 games with him and Felix Hernandez pitching together. It was a fun three months, though.

Keefe: In 2010, Felix Hernandez went 3-0 against the Yankees with this line: 26 IP, 16 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 8 BB, 31 K. He made one mistake in 26 innings against the Yankees and it led to a Nick Swisher home run. They were three of the most dominant starting pitching performances in a single season I have ever seen and to me Felix had become the best pitcher in the world, taking over the title from Roy Halladay.

It’s insane that Felix first came into the league in 2005 and is just turned 28 this month. Given his age, dominance and health, I felt like his seven-year, $175 million deal was a steal for the Mariners and a bargain for the franchise.

What has it been like watching Felix grow in the majors from the time he was 19 to now and what are your thoughts on his contract?

Weber: I feel a lot better about Felix’s contract than Cano’s simply because of his age. Felix has also shown that he can pitch without his velocity, which is more than I can say for some of the pitchers who signed mega-deals after Felix inked his. Felix doesn’t thrown that mid/high 90’s heat anymore, but he’s striking out more batters every single year. He just knows how to pitch, and he’s a joy to watch. I’m thrilled that he’s here, and even more thrilled that he loves Seattle as much as he loves us. It was unbelievably exhausting to hear Yankee fans constantly pepper Mariner fans with “can’t wait until Felix is a Yankee in X number of years.” Not to associate you or your readers with that kind of fan — every city has them — but in Seattle, we took extra pleasure in keeping him out of pinstripes. As we say on the site, Felix is ours and you can’t have him.

Keefe: After their 85-77 finish in 2009, it looked like the Mariners might finally be heading back to being the team they were at the beginning of the decade, but instead they finished last in the AL West in 2010, 2011 and 2012 and if it weren’t for the Astros joining the AL last year, they would have finished last again in 2013. While the Rangers have grown to be a contender in recent years, the A’s have rebounded after a few down seasons and the Angels have been in the mix, the Mariners are the one AL West team (we won’t count the Astros in this conversation) who have been unable to regain their relevance and make a legitimate push for the postseason. Normally I don’t care about the success or failure of teams not named the Yankees, but I feel like I need to see Felix pitch in a postseason game (unless the Yankees and Mariners meet in the postseason during his career).

What are your expectations for the Mariners this season and the direction of the team? When will they finally get back to where they were 11-plus years ago?

Weber: The future of the franchise rests squarely on the young players. While I’m not a fan of the path the front office took to get to this point, long and winding with a lot of needless mistakes along the way, the talent around the field is all there. Now it’s up to them to perform, avoid injury, and take steps forward as this franchise grows. The team the Mariners assembled this year is their best in years, and looked like a .500 team on paper before all the injuries to Hisashi Iwakuma, James Paxton, and Taijuan Walker. For three major pitching contributions, their losses have been devastating. There’s just so much variability here. The Mariners could win 85 games as easily as they could love 85, and I wouldn’t be surprised either way. This slow start hasn’t helped, but if they can keep things respectable until their rotation gets back into shape, they could make some noise — but again, it’s up to the kids. They will be a playoff team at some point, but I’m unconvinced it’ll ever happen with GM Jack Zduriencik at the helm.

Blogs • Yankees

Apr 2, 2014

Opening Day Disaster

CC Sabathia let me down on Opening Day once again, but really I let myself down for thinking this Opening Day would be any different from the other Opening Days he has started for the Yankees.

The wait for Opening Day is forever. This year the wait was 183 days.

Given how depressing the 2013 season was and how the entire baseball season ended with the Red Sox winning their third championship in 10 seasons and that the 2014 Yankees would have so many new players to watch and that this will be Derek Jeter’s final season (and let’s not forget how miserable the weather in New York City has been), the hype and anticipation this offseason for Tuesday night in Houston was like to the months leading up to Y2K. But like New Year’s Day 14 years ago, when the day finally came, nothing happened and nothing changed. Opening Day 2014 might as well have been Game 163 of 2013.

The first 30 minutes of Yankee baseball in 2014 couldn’t have gone worse. Between Dexter Fowler’s leadoff double and CC Sabathia giving up four first-inning runs and another two in the second and Joe Girardi pulling the infield in in the first inning of an American League game on Opening Day with Scott Feldman as the opposing pitcher and Brian McCann’s errant throw and Mark Teixeira’s awful throw, you couldn’t have imagined a more confidence-crushing start to the season. The only comparison for the drop in my confidence level and feelings about the 2014 Yankees from 7:10 p.m. to about 7:40 p.m. is Mike McDermott’s blank stare and shock as his three stacks of high society are lost to Teddy KGB in the opening scene of Rounders.

In 2009, we had the letdown in Baltimore. In 2010, we had the blown lead in Boston. In 2012, we had the grand slam at the Trop. Last year, we had the Opening Day Debacle. This year, we have the Opening Day Disaster. The one constant between them all? CC Sabathia. After 16 consecutive scoreless innings to finish spring training, Sabathia put together his usual Opening Day performance to remind everyone once again not to put any stock into spring training. Sabathia threw 99 pitches and generated just nine swings-and-misses from a lineup that looked like it came out of Ken Griffey, Jr. Presents Major League Baseball for Super Nintendo. Here is the Houston Astros lineup from the 1994 video game:

W. Eisner
S. Ditko
J. Kirby
M. Caniff
W. Gaines
H. Kurtzman
J. Davis
D. Martin

And here is the Astros lineup from Opening Day 2014:

D. Fowler
R. Grossman
J. Altuve
J. Castro
J. Guzman
C. Carter
M. Dominguez
L.J. Hoes
J. Villar

That lineup scored six runs, hit two home runs and had four extra-base hits against an Opening Day starter, who made around $700,000 for his six innings of work. Here’s what that starter has now done in six Opening Day starts with the Yankees.

April 6, 2009 @ BAL: 4.1 IP, 8 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 5 BB, 0 K

April 4, 2010 @ BOS: 5.1 IP, 6 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 2 BB, 4 K

March 31, 2011 vs. DET: 6 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 7 K

April 6, 2012 @ TB: 6 IP, 8 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 3 BB, 7 K

April 1, 2013 vs. BOS: 5 IP, 8 H, 4 R, 4 R, 4 BB, 5 K

April 1, 2014 @ HOU: 6 IP, 8 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 1 BB, 6 K

Sabathia has pitched well in one of the six starts (2011) and has been awful in the other five. But Tuesday should have come as no surprise as he has just one win and a 6.12 ERA in 11 Opening Day starts (five with Cleveland). So I shouldn’t be mad at Sabathia for his Game 1 egg, but rather at myself for believing that this Opening Day would be different from the other five he has started for the Yankees, especially now that he’s no longer a power pitcher.

But for as bad as Tuesday night was and it was really bad, there was some positive news from Opening Day. No, I’m not talking about Derek Jeter’s Jeterian single off Chad Qualls or Mark Teixeira showing signs of life at the plate or the work of Dellin Betances and Vidal Nuno. I’m talking about Eduardo Nunez being designated for assignment.

Nunez will always hold a special place in my baseball life (and it’s not a good kind of special place) because he (along with Brian Cashman) cost me Cliff Lee. Yes, the trade that never happened is more on Cashman for believing that Nunez projected as an everyday major league player, but I still blame Nunez for being the player he was, even if it wasn’t his fault the Yankees kept trying to make him work out and trying to make him work out around the infield and even the outfield. But if Cashman hadn’t been so high on Nunez and had been willing to let him go four years ago this June, the Yankees would have had Cliff Lee in 2010 and would have gone to the 2010 World Series. That’s a fact. The series was tied 1-1 before his Game 3 dominance, which led to A.J. Burnett’s Game 4 disaster before Sabathia won Game 5. If Lee wins Game 3 for the Yankees, the series is 2-1 in their favor and they need to win just two of the next four to advance to the World Series with Lee, Sabathia and Pettitte available to start three of those four games. The Yankees win the ALCS and go back to the World Series for the second straight year if Cashman gives up Nunez to the Mariners.

Nunez is no longer a member of the Yankees, but Sabathia is and will be through at least 2016 (and possibly 2017 depending on his vesting option). He needs to figure out how to pitch like his so-called best friend in Cliff Lee and his former teammate Andy Pettitte, like I said when I ranked him No. 1 on The 2014 Yankees’ Order of Importance. Maybe the Yankees’ rotation will end up being as deep and as reliable as I think and hope it can be and Sabathia won’t have to be the most important Yankee and then it won’t matter that there’s a chance the Yankees’ rotation was set backwards. The Yankees might not need CC Sabathia to be pre-2013 CC Sabathia if the other four starters can carry the load (that’s not a fat joke since Sabathia is now skinny), but they can’t afford to have him pitch like he did on Tuesday in Houston and become a Phil Hughes-like automatic loss every five days with average stuff and location.

It’s hard not to get upset about an Opening Day loss after waiting so long for baseball to return. It’s even harder to not get upset when your $23 million starting pitcher takes you out of the game in the first inning against a team that finished 51-111 last season. Thankfully, there are 161 more of these. None of them can be this bad.

Podcasts • Yankees

Mar 28, 2014

Podcast: Erik Boland

Erik Boland of Newsday joins me to talk about whether the new and slim CC Sabathia can be trusted and how excited everyone should be for Michael Pineda to finally be healthy.

We are almost there. Baseball is almost back. The Yankees are almost back. After a disappointing 2013 season, a miserable October when it comes to baseball, a cold winter and now cold spring, Opening Day is long overdue. The Yankees certainly have their questions and concerns and unknowns this season, but after last year’s Murphy’s Law season, it can only go up from an 85-77 finish and a postseason-less fall.

Erik Boland, the Yankees beat writer for Newsday, joined me to talk about the feeling around the Yankees with Derek Jeter’s last Opening Day approaching, whether the new and slim CC Sabathia can be trusted and how excited everyone should be for Michael Pineda to finally be healthy.

Blogs • NFL

Jan 3, 2014

My Super Bowl XLVIII Dilemma

The New York Football Giants aren’t going to win Super Bowl XLVIII, so it’s time figure out who it makes sense to root for and against this NFL postseason.

Someone will win Super Bowl XLVIII, but it won’t be the Giants.

With the Giants officially on Day 5 of the offseason (I say “officially” because you could make the case that some of them have been in offseason mode for weeks and some never even left it for the regular season) it’s the eve of the NFL playoffs and Wild-Card Weekend. Since the New York Football Giants aren’t going to the playoffs for the fourth time in five years and therefore won’t be going to The Dance at their own home on Feb. 2, I decided to dust off an idea I had for a column three years ago when I ranked the 12 playoff teams in order from which team I would most like to see win Super Bowl XLVIII to which team I don’t want to see win at all. Here it is:

1. Bengals
What is there not to like about the Bengals? Or should I say, what is there to not like about the Bengals? Unless you really hate gingers and therefore Andy Dalton or want to see the Bengals playoff win drought endure another year, there’s no reason to care if the Bengals win it all.

2. Colts
Out of the entire 2012 Quarterback Breakout Class, it’s possible that Andrew Luck has received the least amount of hype and attention for the player who was drafted first overall, had the highest expectations and career projection coming out of college and was being asked to take over a franchise from Peyton Manning. Luck hasn’t disappointed with back-to-back playoff appearances in his first two years, which were supposed to be rebuilding years in Indianapolis and hasn’t done anything in the spotlight to draw negative attention (at least since becoming a Colt since there was that whole private security detail that he employed on campus at Stanford).

A Colts Super Bowl win means a Chuck Pagano Super Bowl win. It also means a Jim Irsay Super Bowl win and what’s better than having a loudmouth owner who called out (and he had a point with what he said) the Peyton Manning Colts for not winning multiple Super Bowls?

3. Broncos
Three years ago I had the Peyton Manning Colts ranked first, but things have changed. I wouldn’t mind if Peyton got his second ring, but coming in the same year in which his brother threw a league-leading 27 interceptions, as a Giants fan it wouldn’t be the best situation.

If Pierre Garcon didn’t drop a pass that would have broken open Super Bowl XLIV or the Colts weren’t taken by surprise by an onside kick or if Peyton Manning himself didn’t throw a devastating pick-six then Peyton would already have his second ring, would be 2-0 in Super Bowls and considered the greatest ever. Instead he’s just the greatest regular-season quarterback ever not the greatest quarterback ever. I wouldn’t mind if that changed this February, I just wish it wouldn’t have to come in a year when Eli wasn’t so awful.

4. 49ers
The 49ers destroyed my 10-to-1 Championship Games parlay last season when they completed a 17-point comeback against the Falcons and won the NFC. I’m still upset about that when it comes to the 49ers, but nothing else.

5. Panthers
I’m still mad at the Panthers for their Super Bowl XXXVIII loss to the Patriots that gave the Patriots their second Super Bowl in three years. And I’m still mad at the Panthers, well mainly just Jake Delhomme, for destroying that divisional round game against the Cardinals in 2008 with five interceptions, costing me the Panthers -10 pick. But it’s 2013 and the Panthers’ Super Bowl loss to the Patriots was a decade ago (and if the Patriots don’t win Super Bowl XLVIII we will enter 2014 with it being a decade since their last championship despite many acting as though they won it as recently as last February) and Jake Delhomme is no longer a Panther or an NFL quarterback. And wouldn’t you be excited to watch the Panthers’ Super Bowl XLVIII DVD with the story about how Ron Rivera went from as close to being fired as you can be to leading the 1-2 Panthers to a championship?

6. Chiefs
If the Chiefs win the Super Bowl then that means the Eagles didn’t win the Super Bowl and it means Andy Reid has won a Super Bowl and the Philadelphia Eagles organization still hasn’t and that means chaos for the city of Philadelphia and Eagles fans. But if the Chiefs win the Super Bowl it means that Alex Smith was the quarterback who led them there and I’m not sure I want anything to do with a sport in which Alex Smith is a winner and possibly Super Bowl MVP.

7. Saints
Jeremy Shockey isn’t there to win another Super Bowl, so the Saints have moved up from their No. 8 spot in 2010. And without Shockey there, aside from Sean Payton wearing a visor, I have nothing against the Saints except for how they screwed me in the final minute against the Patriots and how they screwed me again against the Jets. The only reason I don’t want the Saints to win the Super Bowl is because everything I have come to believe about them and written about them and how they are a different team outside the Superdome will all be meaningless. And that’s because if the Saints win the Super Bowl, they will have won four road games and four outdoor games and that’s a scientific impossibility.

8. Seahawks
In a world where college coaches will do anything and I mean anything to get a better job, Pete Carroll is the poster boy for how to get ahead after he left USC with a two-year bowl ban and the elimination of 30 football scholarships for another shot at the NFL. Back in 2010, I didn’t care if the Seahawks won the Super Bowl (despite those things) and had them ranked third, but they aren’t entering the playoffs as a 7-9 division winner looking to make a mockery of the NFL’s postseason format, so that’s why they have fallen.

9. Packers
Here’s what I wrote about the Packers in my Week 15 Picks:

Since Aaron Rodgers has become the Packers starting quarterback, here’s how their seasons have finished:

2008: Missed playoffs
2009: Lost in Wild-Card round
2010: Won Super Bowl
2011: Lost in divisional round (first game)
2012: Lost in divisional round after beating Joe Webb and the Vikings in the Wild-Card round

So in the last five years with Rodgers as the starter, the Packers have won five playoff games with four of them coming in the same year. And if the “Miracle at the Meadowlands” doesn’t happen, the Packers don’t even make the playoffs in 2010 let alone win the Super Bowl.

I wrote all that because I was trying to show that Aaron Rodgers isn’t worthy of the “Best Player in the League” title he has seemingly been given in a league that boasts maybe the best two quarterbacks in the history of the game and the most dominant running back since Barry Sanders. And after two months without him playing, all it took was one season-saving 48-yard touchdown pass for everyone to push Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Adrian Peterson and others like Drew Brees and LeSean McCoy aside for the Aaron Rodgers Is The Best campaign to return to form.

10. Chargers
In the same season in which Eli Manning threw 27 interceptions and lost to Philip Rivers and the Giants went 7-9 and missed the playoffs, it would be very bad if Rivers and the Chargers then went on to win the Super Bowl. I want the 2013 Giants season to be gone and forgotten and right now that process has started, but if the team Eli Manning said he wouldn’t play for and the quarterback the Giants would have possibly then had win the Super Bowl, Eli Manning and especially 2013 Eli Manning will be at the forefront of Super Bowl storylines for the next month.

11. Patriots
I once wrote how a Red Sox-Mets World Series would be the worst possible championship scenario for me and I’m thankful that I was only a month old when that scenario was created in 1986. My last two teams present the second-worst possible championship scenario for me.

Nothing has changed for me and my feelings for the Patriots over the last three years and because of that, here is what I wrote about them then:

There is no way I want the Patriots to win the Super Bowl. None at all. I would rather walk across the George Washington Bridge naked, during rush hour, while it’s freezing rain than see the Patriots win.

However, a Patriots’ championship would put a serious damper on the possibility of adding more chapters to The Last Night of the Patriots Dynasty book that I plan to write with Mike Hurley.

12. Eagles
This is my nightmare! Well, it’s just one of my nightmares. My real nightmare happened in October and October 2007 and October 2004. My hatred for the Eagles is so strong that last week I found myself rooting for the Cowboys in the winner-take-all Week 17 game and actually felt a little depressed after Kyle Orton ended the game with a Tony Romo-esque interception. That’s what the Eagles can do to me. They can make me not only root for the nearly-equally-hated Cowboys, but also have a Cowboys loss negatively change my mood when I should be happy and celebrating Jerry Jones’ Dallas disaster going another year without a Super Bowl.

If Philadelphia trades Cliff Lee to the Yankees between now and Super Bowl XLVIII I’m willing to at least think about changing their spot. But without The One That Got Away holding a Yankee Stadium press conference between now and Feb. 2, I want to hear anything but “Fly, Eagles Fly.”

Tag: Cliff Lee

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