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Tag: Cam Newton

Blogs • Giants

Sep 11, 2014

NFL Week 2 Picks

The Giants face an “almost must-win game” in Week 2 against the Cardinals, but they aren’t the only team in that position this week.

Ben Mcadoo, Eli Manning

Week 2 is dangerous. The only thing you know about every team in the league is one game of information and there’s a good chance that what you learned about each team in 60 minutes of football isn’t an accurate assessment of who that team really is or is going to be. Unless that team is the New York Football Giants.

Every concern, issue, problem, question mark and unknown raised about the 2014 Giants in the offseason and preseason was on display in their 21-points loss to the Lions and troubling part is that they aren’t going to be fixed anytime soon. I highly doubt that after months of trying to learn the new offense that they are all of a sudden going to have learned it and be magically clicking less than six full days after there was reason to celebrate when they would run a play successfully or when a receiver would catch a pass for positive yards.

Here is how I started my 2013 Weeks 2 Picks (and also apparently the way I started my 2012 Week 2 Picks):

Can you have a must-win game in Week 2? Yes, you can because the Giants do.

(I opened my 2012 NFL Week 2 Picks with that same question. I’m hoping I won’t have to use it in 2014.)

And like in The Departed when Mr. French tells Billy after fighting the cranberry-juice ordering guy (he is actually listed as Well-Dressed Scumbag At Bar in the script I used to find the exact quote), “That’s not quite a guy you can’t hit, but it’s almost a guy you cant hit,” the Giants’ Week 2 game against the Cardinals isn’t quite a must-win game, but it’s almost a must-win game. But the Giants aren’t alone in playing an “almost must-win game” in Week 2. So let’s get to the Week 2 picks.

(Home team in caps)

Pittsburgh +2.5 over BALTIMORE
It’s a good thing that with all the negative PR surrounding the NFL this week that they have an actual game with Thursday Night Football for people to talk about and get their attention back on the field. Wait, what’s that? Oh the team playing in and hosting the Thursday game is the team at the center of the league’s problems? That’s some unfortunate timing for Roger Goodell and the NFL.

When it comes to Ravens-Steelers, it’s usually easy to figure out what to do, so I will just add to what I always say before every Ravens-Steelers game.

In 2013, the Steelers won 19-16 and the Ravens won 22-20. In 2012, the Ravens won 13-10 and the Steelers won 23-20. In 2011, the Ravens won 35-7 and 23-20. In 2010, the Ravens won 17-14 and the Steelers won 13-10. In 2009, the Ravens won 20-17 in overtime and the Steelers won 23-20. In 2008, the Steelers won 23-20 in overtime and  13-9.

That’s 12 games with 10 of them being decided by three points, one being decided by four points and one being decided by 28 (the Steelers had seven turnovers, yes seven turnovers, in that loss). Forget picking the Ravens to cover, is there a prop bet that this game will be won by exactly three points?

This game will be decided by three points. And when you know that, how can you not take the points?

Detroit +2.5 over CAROLINA
The Lions’ 35-14 win over the Giants could have probably been 56-0 if the Lions didn’t play Lions football and have several brain farts and commit stupid penalties along the way. But even though there’s a new coaching regime in Detroit, the Lions proved on Monday night that they are still the same old Lions and at any moment they will shoot themselves in the foot and turn a sure-thing into a close thing.

Miami -1 over BUFFALO
The Bills upset the Bears on the road as seven-point underdogs in Week 1, put a massive dent into every survivor pool in the world and were sold to Terry Pegula, the owner of the Sabres, who is obviously going to keep the team in Buffalo. This week has been the best week for Bills fans in over 20 years, but as a franchise and a fan base, good times can’t be sustained in Buffalo.

The Dolphins cost me my New England -5 pick last week, but if I have to take a loss on a pick, I’m happy to take one if it means a loss for the Patriots. Prior to the start of Week 1, you would have thought it was 2004 with the way the Patriots were being picked to win the Super Bowl this year. But after the Dolphins exposed the Patriots’ offensive line as possibly worse than the Giants’ offensive line, and picked apart the Patriots’ so-called revamped defense, it doesn’t seem like the glory days are returning to New England with their personnel.

Jacksonville +5.5 over WASHINGTON
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Jaguars fan or a Redskins fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

TENNESSEE -3.5 over Dallas
After the 1:00 games ended on Sunday and my parlays and teasers had been destroyed and the Yankees had lost their second game in three days in which they didn’t allow an earned run, Tony Romo stepped in to save my Sunday with a season-opening three-interception game.

When I picked San Francisco -5 over Dallas last week, I said:

If you saw the Cowboys roster and it was listed as the roster for “Team X” and Team X didn’t happen to be a national team with a heavy gambling presence, this line would be a lot higher than 5 for one of the NFL’s elite teams on the road against a team that’s headed for a six- or seven-win season.

Now take that and apply it to this week. If Vegas thinks that the Cowboys as the most nationally-followed team with the biggest fan base and most money wagered on their games are 3.5-points underdogs in Tennessee, what are the Cowboys really supposed to be?

NEW YORK GIANTS +2.5 over Arizona
If I could believe in Santa Claus and the Easter Bunny and the Tooth Fairy and that the 2014 Yankees can win 16 of their 19 remaining games and make the playoffs, then I can talk myself into believing that the Giants’ offense, which looked like 11 guys who met five minutes before the game on Monday night, can turn it around for Week 2.

OK, I understand that the Giants’ offense is likely going to be a disaster again this week and that it’s a “work in progress” and that there really isn’t a home-field advantage at MetLife and if anything the Giants play worse at home, but the Giants need to win this game. And as long as Carson Palmer is the opposing quarterback, it might not matter that the Giants’ receivers seem to know the new offense as well as I know how to cook chicken or … well … anything.

MINNESOTA +3.5 over New England
My girlfriend is a Vikings fan and all week I have let her know the important position her team is in. I’m not talking about the Vikings going 2-0 and being at least tied for first place in the NFC North through Week 2. I’m talking about the chance to drop the Patriots to 0-2, a place they haven’t been since 2001 (they actually started that season 1-3, but did win the Super Bowl), put Boston into a state of panic after the city was without a baseball season this summer and put the bet every overconfident Patriots fan made on the Patriots having over 11 wins this seasons on life alert.

If Knowshon Moreno could tear up the Patriots for 134 yards on 24 carries (5.6 yards per carry), what is Adrian Peterson capable of against that defense? I’m getting a little too happy thinking about it.

New Orleans -6.5 over CLEVELAND
I never, ever, ever, ever pick or trust the Saints on the road. The Outside the Superdome Saints can’t be trusted. But there is one circumstance when they can be. That circumstance is when they are playing in Cleveland and Josh Gordon is suspended and the availability of Jordan Cameron and Ben Tate is unknown.

CINCINNATI -5 over Atlanta
Atlanta made me look good last week by not only covering against the Saints, but by beating them in overtime. Unfortunately the Bengals also made me look good by covering and beating the Ravens on the road, and now the Bengals return home where they went 8-0 last year and won those eight games by an average of 17.6 points. The Bengals haven’t lost at home since Dec. 9, 2012 in Week 14 and it was a one-point (20-19) loss to the Cowboys. Could Paul Brown Stadium be turning into the Superdome?

TAMPA BAY -6 over St. Louis
After losing to a Cam Newton-less Panthers team in Week 1, there are a lot of open seats on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers bandwagon as it gives us a preview into what Yankee Stadium will look like in 2015. The Buccaneers now get a Sam Bradford-less Rams team in Week 2 before heading on the road for three straights week to Atlanta, Pittsburgh and New Orleans. If the Buccaneers can’t win a convincing game against the 2014 Rams, who were run out of their own building by the Vikings, then their 2014 is going to go the way 2013 went.

SAN DIEGO +6 over Seattle
I have thought about this game more than any other game this week and after going over everything, I have narrowed all the information down to two basic questions:

1. Do I want to get burned by the Super Bowl champion Seahawks and the best defense in the league for the second time in as many weeks?

2. Do I want to trust that Philip Rivers can keep it close against and possibly even beat the Super Bowl champion Seahawks and the best defense in the league?

And when I write the two questions out, it’s easy for me to see that . If I lose this game taking the best team in football coming off a 20-point win against the so-called “best” quarterback in the league on 10 days rest, I can deal with it. But what I can’t deal with is if I take the Chargers and then watch the Seahawks do what they did to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers on opening night.

Houston -3 over OAKLAND
Oakland is playing for the first overall pick at the 2015 NFL Draft and after having watched Draft Day this week, I can definitely see the Raiders making the same decisions Sonny Weaver Jr. made if he had never eventually gotten his first-round picks back for the next three years back.

GREEN BAY -8.5 over New York Jets
No one seems to know what checkpoint Rex Ryan needs to reach to be the Jets head coach in 2015, whether it’s a .500 season or a winning season or reaching the playoffs or winning a playoff game, but watching Ryan celebrate a Chris Ivory 71-yard touchdown run against the lowly Raiders as if he just received word he’s going to be brought back for next season wasn’t a good look for Rex. It’s the Raiders. The Raiders! They started a rookie quarterback making his NFL debut and helped him out with 25 rushing yards. That’s 25 rushing yards on 15 carries in a 60-minute game!

When I did the Jets preseason podcast with my friend and most optimistic Jets fan Tim Duff, we talked about the Jets’ need to beat the Raiders before the six-week gauntlet from Weeks 2-7 that will decide their season. The Jets took care of business against in Week 1, but now the gauntlet begins and it begins in Green Bay where a healthy Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are looking to bounce back after their season-opening rout at the hands of the Seahawks and avoid falling to 0-2 and Green Bay is where Duff will be, in his Sheldon Richardson jersey likely getting ridiculed and abused by Packers fans. I’m looking forward to my next podcast with Duff following the Jets-Packers game because I know it’s going to have a much different tone than it did before Week 1 when he was taking shots at the Giants and glowing over the phone with optimism about the Jets.

DENVER -13 over Kansas City
Last year I saw “good value” in taking the 9-0 Chiefs’ money line against the 8-1 Broncos in Denver in Week 11. I was at MSG for Rangers-Kings checking my phone for score updates and still felt confident in the bet despite trailing 17-10 at halftime. But eventually, the Broncos pulled away, winning 27-17 and covering the 7.5-point line.

When the teams met two weeks later in Kansas City, I once again saw “good value” in taking the money line of the 9-2 Chiefs over the 10-1 Broncos at home where the Chiefs had only one loss, which came the week prior against the Chargers on a game-winning touchdown with 31 seconds left. The Broncos won again, this time 35-28, and covered again.

The lesson I learned: Don’t trust Alex Smith and Andy Reid against Peyton Manning.

Chicago +7 over SAN FRANCISCO
The Bears are in a bad spot. Not only are they playing the 49ers this week, but six of their next eight games are on the road in tough places: San Francisco, New York (Jets), Carolina, Atlanta, New England and Green Bay. No one saw a Week 1 loss at home to the Bills coming for the Bears and that includes Bills fans. It was a terrible teaser-killing loss and one the Bears couldn’t afford to give away playing in the best division in the league and with their challenging schedule. Had the Bears blown out the Bills and covered their 7-point spread like most assumed, this line in San Francisco would be somewhere around 3.5-5, but instead it’s 7, and 7 seems too high for a 49ers team that suffered devastating secondary injuries. Did I just take Jay Cutler on Sunday Night Football against one of the league’s elite teams in a game in which they will open their new stadium? I probably won’t regret this decision …

INDIANAPOLIS -3 over Philadelphia
Back-to-back primetime spots for Andrew Luck. Earlier this week, Mike Francesa said Luck “is about to become the best player in the league” and that might be true, which means a lot more primetime for Luck for a long, long time.

The Giants’ best chance (and possibly only chance) at reaching the postseason is going to come by winning the division. (Yes, I’m talking Giants’ postseason chances three days after a 21-point in which their offense and offensive coordinator looked like 12 guys who all spoke 12 different languages.) And if the Giants are going to stay in the hunt, they are going to need the rest of the NFC East to be mediocre as well. The Cowboys and Redskins proved they are ready to fight for an 8-8 or 9-7 playoff berth with their Week 1 performances and the Eagles looked like they would happily join in as well before their 34-point second-half outburst against the Jaguars. The only thing standing in the way of the Giants and meaningful late-season football and a potential playoff berth they don’t deserve is if the Eagles don’t run away with the division.

Last week: 8-8-0

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Blogs • Giants • NFL

Oct 10, 2013

NFL Week 6 Picks

I finally broke up with the Giants after their loss to the Eagles. But then I took them back just in time for their game against the Bears.

Breaking up with the Giants is hard to do. I deleted their number, unfriended them on Facebook, put all the memories they gave me in a box that I then labeled “JOKE” and have even avoided using the word “giant” in any context, choosing to go with “huge,” “enormous” and “mammoth” among others. But guess what? I let them back in my life! I know, I know! I’m an idiot and at midnight on Thursday night when they’re 0-6 and Eli Manning, Tom Coughlin and Justin Tuck are making excuses like a sophomore in high school whose English midterm is late again (no, that wasn’t me…) you can all tell me “I told you so.” But this morning, with the thought of being still in the division thanks to the Cowboys, it was the equivalent of seeing a few late-night texts from the Giants or seeing a request that “New York Giants wants to be your friend” waiting for me on Facebook and I couldn’t help but give them what is now their third chance this season. I know I’m stupid, but just shut up for a minute and let me explain.

The difference this time is I’m fully prepared for the Giants to get beat up by the Bears and run out of Soldier Field like a drunk Packers fan wearing a foam cheesehead with his entire body painted green screaming “Bears suck!” during a Bears-Packers game. I’m not going into this game thinking the Giants are going to win or that they even have a real chance to win. I’m going into the game hoping that they have a Lloyd Christmas-Mary Swanson-like small chance or even smaller to stay in the game until the fourth quarter and then maybe Eli Manning will find his missing fourth-quarter magic or maybe Jay Cutler will hand the Giants a win the way he has handed so many other teams wins in his career. You’re still not sold? Neither am I really.

***

Apparently as the Giants season goes, my picks go. Week 5 was another train wreck that proved that logic and reasoning is pointless when it comes to the 2013 NFL. On top of it all, anything you have seen or learned or figured out is worthless at the end of each week and completely irrelevant in picking the following week. It’s almost as if the movie 50 First Dates has become me making my NFL picks. And for as bad as that movie was, my picks have been worse.

Week 6 … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

New York Giants +7.5 over CHICAGO
This is the last time I will be picking the Giants. The absolute last time. This is it. It’s really it.

KANSAS CITY -8 over Oakland
Picking an Andy Reid-led team with Alex Smith as the starting quarterback (even if they are undefeated) this many times is sure to backfire at some point. But the Chiefs have won four of their five games by at least nine points and that’s good enough for me to pick against the Raiders on the road.

Philadelphia -1.5 over TAMPA BAY
It doesn’t matter if Michael Vick starts or Nick Foles starts or Nick Vick (the combination of the two that we saw against the Giants) starts against the Buccaneers. Any of those three options is better than Mike Glennon, who will be making his second career start following Josh Freeman’s release and the circus Greg Schiano created down in Tampa Bay. And if Glennon for some reason can’t play or is removed from the game, you know who his backup is? Dan Orlovsky, that’s who. The future is bright in Tampa Bay.

BALTIMORE +3 over Green Bay
I originally had Green Bay -3 in this game and because I switched it Green Bay is 100 percent going to cover. I have been down on the Ravens through five weeks, but their 26-23 win in Miami last week has made me a believer for at least Week 6 in the Ravens. And I don’t really trust the Packers away from home.

MINNESOTA -2.5 over Carolina
Need a good laugh? Here’s what I said about the Panthers last week:

I know Bill Parcells said, “You are what your record says you are,” and the Panthers are 1-2, but they are good.

Done laughing?

The Panthers repaid my praise for them by getting embarrassed by the Cardinals. (The Cardinals!) A 22-6 loss in a game that featured seven combined turnovers (Carolina had four and Arizona had three), including three picks for both Cam Newton and Carson Palmer.

Meanwhile the Vikings are coming off their bye and their first and season-saving win against the Steelers in London.

HOUSTON -7.5 over St. Louis
The Rams did manage to beat the Jaguars by two touchdowns to cover their 11.5-point spread, but the Jaguars were in the game for far too long and did lead for enough time that it made me think the Jaguars wouldn’t finish the season 0-16 and made me realize just how bad the 2008 Lions were to finish that season 0-16.

NEW YORK JETS -2.5 over Pittsburgh
I expected the J-E-T-S to get blown out of the Georgia Dome on Monday Night Football and instead they put together a 2011 Giants-esque game-winning drive to improve to 3-2 on the season. The Giants are 0-5 on the year, the Yankees’ season ended 11 days ago and in the Rangers’ most recent game they were run out of San Jose in a 9-2 loss. Maybe me picking the Jets this week will restore some order in the New York sports world.

Cincinnati -7.5 over BUFFALO
Last week someone named Jeff Tuel took over for an injured E.J. Manuel in the Bills’ 37-24 home loss to the Browns (who also lost their starter Brian Hoyer to a torn ACL and had to replace him with former start Brandon Weeden) on Thursday Night Football. (How great has Thursday Night Football for 17 weeks worked out?) How bad was Tuel? Bad enough that the Bills have signed someone named Thad Lewis off their practice squad to start over Tuel this week. Bills head coach Doug Marrone said, “Thad gives us the best chance to win,” but he’s wrong. He’s not wrong that Lewis is better than Tuel because he might be, though that’s not saying much. He’s wrong that the Bills have a chance to win this game. They don’t. Now we just need Lewis to be bad enough that the Bengals can cover.

SEATTLE -13.5 over Tennessee
Ryan Fitzpatrick finally gets a chance to start for the Titans and he gets the then-5-0 Chiefs (now 6-0) and the 4-1 Seahawks (soon to be 5-1). Sometimes things aren’t fair for Harvard graduates who get $59 million contracts with $24 million of guaranteed money.

DENVER -27 over Jacksonville
At no point would I feel nervous about taking the Broncos in this game. The Broncos beat the defending Super Bowl champions by 22 points in Week 1 and beat the Eagles by 32 points in Week 4. You don’t think they can beat the winless Jaguars by four touchdowns? The Rams managed to beat the Jaguars by two touchdowns last week.

SAN FRANCISCO -11.5 over Arizona
The Cardinals are on a mission to destroy my picks as best they can this season and so far they are succeeding. I can’t help that I want to pick against Carson Palmer every possible chance I get. Is that so wrong?

Since the 49ers were embarrassed in Seattle and Indianapolis in back-to-back weeks in Weeks 2 and 3, they are 2-0 and have outscored their opponents (St. Louis and Houston) 69-14. The NFC favorite that was supposed to go back to the Super Bowl this season is back after their two-week hiatus and now they need to put an end to the pesky, pick-destroying Cardinals.

New Orleans +1.5 over NEW ENGLAND
The Saints proved my whole theory about them being a different team outside the Superdome wrong with a win on the road at Soldier Field. But maybe that theory was only good for Saints teams of the past? Maybe the 2013 Saints are capable of winning road games against worthy opponents? Their two-point win over the Buccaneers said they weren’t, but now their eight-point win over the Bears says they are.

The difference in New Orleans is with Rob Ryan’s defense, which hasn’t allowed more than 18 points in a game this season (17, 14, 7, 17 and 18). In the past the Saints weren’t worried about giving up points knowing they could outscore any team in the league, especially at home, but now the Saints (at least through five games) appear to be a well-balanced team and that’s bad news for the rest of the NFC.

Washington +6.5 over DALLAS
I was nervous that the Cowboys were going to stop the 2013 Broncos train in the final minutes on Sunday, but Tony Romo put to rest my fears with a Tony Romo game-ending interception to keep the Giants mathematically involved in the NFC East despite having no wins. Now the Redskins are coming to the Big D with a chance to take over the division lead with a win and an Eagles loss. Everyone keeps talking about how the NFC East will be won by an 8-8 team or possibly even a 7-9 team. If it’s possible I’m pulling for a 6-10 team to come out of the East. The scary thing is the Giants would have to play .545 football the rest of the way and go 6-5 just to finish 6-10 at this point. Has anyone told Antrel Rolle this?

Indianapolis -2.5 over SAN DIEGO
I keep picking against the Colts and they keep making me pay. Thankfully, I jumped off the Chargers undefeated covering streak in time for their 10-point loss to the Raiders last week.

Last week: 5-9-0
Season: 29-44-4

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Oct 19, 2012

NFL Week 7 Picks

The first over-.500 week came last week, so the pressure is on to keep it going in Week 7.

You can already hear people saying it and it’s exactly what I didn’t want to have happen.

“The Giants are the best team in the NFL.”

I’m not sure if there’s a “best” team in the NFL anymore as the parity in the league has gotten out of control and no team is safe. There’s a good chance the Giants are the “best” team in the league right now, but “right now” only lasts through Monday night and by then that title could be stripped. For now, let’s keep it quiet and between us because we don’t want the Giants to know that there is hype building around them.

The last thing the Giants need at 4-2 with their ridiculous schedule is to start thinking they are the team to beat and better than they are. They obviously didn’t care about being defending champions when they lost to the Cowboys at home on Opening Night and they didn’t want to listen to Eli Manning when he preached about “getting off to a fast start” before they had to dig out of double-digit hole against the Browns two weeks ago.

History has shown us that the Giants succeed when there is doubt surrounding and when the attention is elsewhere like in New England, Philadelphia or Dallas. It only makes sense that the Giants would start to gain respect the same week they are playing the Redskins (a team that went 2-0 against the Giants in 2011 with Rex Grossman as their quarterback) at MetLife Stadium (a place where the Giants have trouble winning despite it being their home). This matchup has “letdown” written all over it and it wouldn’t surprise me if the Giants take this game lightly after winning in San Francisco. That’s who the Giants are and they’re never changing. I don’t think I want them to.

***

Last week I said I didn’t have time to give a take on the teams and the picks, and I didn’t. I was drafting off the Yankees postseason and I still am even though they have been eliminated. It will likely take me until the end of October to re-energize and they aren’t even playing anymore. I miss baseball and it hasn’t been 24 hours since the season ended. It’s going to be a long five-plus months until Opening Day.

I had been chasing an over-.500 record in my picks for five weeks before finishing 8-6 in Week 6. That also happened to be the same week I just picked the game without writing anything about any of the games. So you would think that I would probably do the same thing this week to see if lightning could strike twice, but I’m not going to mail it in this week even if I didn’t do the picks for Thursday like I promised I would for the rest of the season two weeks ago. (Give me a break! The baseball season just ended!) Even though I’m experiencing full-blown depression from the Yankees being swept in the ALCS, I’m going to pick myself up off the mat and do what the Yankees couldn’t do in the ALCS: my job.

Week 7 … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

SAN FRANCISCO -7 over Seattle
A push thanks to Jim Harbaugh declining the holding penalty in the end zone that would have resulted in a safety and a cover and a win to start Week 7. But I wouldn’t expect anything less. Nothing comes easy in this league and especially not a Thursday win to get things rolling after an 8-6 week.

BUFFALO -3 over Tennessee
I wish I knew why I’m always picking the Bills to cover spreads and win games. Maybe it’s because my grandmother is from Buffalo? I’m not sure. But I’m doing it again. Try to stop me.

MINNESOTA -6.5 over Arizona
All of a sudden the Vikings are the 2007 Patriots and getting exceedingly high numbers each week. But I have backed Kevin Kolb before and I’m not about to again.

INDIANAPOLIS -2 over Cleveland
I’m not sure what happened to the Colts last week against the Jets because well, it’s the Jets, and the Colts were coming off an emotional home win against the Packers. I wish I could see the line for this game if it had been played in Week 6 instead of Week 7 with the Colts coming off beating the Packers and the Browns being winless.

Baltimore +6.5 over HOUSTON
This is all about the points.

Green Bay -5.5 over ST. LOUIS
I think the Packers sensed the urgency on Monday Night Football in Houston and answered the bell. I was hoping they would finish the season at 8-8 or maybe even 7-9 and be one less team to worry about in the playoffs, but that’s not going to happen. The Packers are back and they have the St. Louis, Jacksonville and Arizona before their bye week. Get in on the Packers now before their lines hit double digits in the next two weeks.

Dallas -2.5 over CAROLINA
A Dallas win in Carolina isn’t good for the Giants in the division or for more controversy surrounding the Cowboys, but picking the Panthers and Cam Newton isn’t good for anyone.

NEW YORK GIANTS -6 over Washington
There’s a good chance my friend Ray (the biggest Redskins fan I know) won’t be talking to me for a few weeks after this beatdown. I know he won’t leave his home and his fiancée and his dog to watch the game with me, but I wish he would because this game is going to force him to drink, and Drunk Ray is always a good time.

TAMPA BAY +2 over New Orleans
At 0-4, the Saints had nothing left to play for this season except for Drew Brees breaking Johnny Unitas’ record in Week 5, and that’s why I picked the Saints over the Chargers that week. But now that the record is broken and the moment is over, the Saints are a 1-4 team trailing in their division by 4 ½ games to the undefeated Falcons. The Saints’ season is over, and after a week off they are probably wishing they had the next 11 weeks off too.

New York Jets +10.5 over NEW ENGLAND
This could get ugly and make the 34-0 beating the Jets took at MetLife from the 49ers look like nothing. But that’s a lot of points for a team to get on the road against a division opponent even if that team has Mark Sanchez as a quarterback and no-name receivers. The Patriots are 3-3 and let the Seahawks come back against them last week and I’m sure the NFL has already penciled in Tom Brady as the FedEx Air Player of the Week for Week 7. But I can’t shake the notion that friend/enemy (frenemy?) Mike Hurley has pretty much guaranteed a Patriots blowout in this game and when Mike Hurley guarantees anything Patriots related, the opposite happens. Giants fans for Jets

OAKLAND -4.5 over Jacksonville
It’s the “Do I Really Have to Pick This Game of the Week?” No one screws me over like the Raiders, but I can accept it and that’s what this matchup comes down to: Who would I be less upset with screwing me over? The answer: Oakland.

CINCINNATI +1 over Pittsburgh
It’s tough for me to pick Andy Dalton over Ben Roethlisberger here considering the Steelers’ season is getting away from them. But these two teams are essentially the same team and since Week 10 last year when the Steelers won in Cincinnati they have won just two road games in Kansas City and Cleveland.

CHICAGO -6.5 over Detroit
I don’t think the Bears want to hear about how the Giants never get respect around the league for being an elite team because you rarely hear anyone talk about the Bears. Two years ago they went to the NFC Championship Game, last year they were 7-3 before Jay Cutler got injured and they’re already 4-1 this year. This is the last team in the NFC I would want the Giants to have to face, especially at Soldier Field.

Last Week: 8-6-0
Season: 42-48-1

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Sep 7, 2012

NFL Week 1 Picks

It’s Week 1 of the 2012 NFL season and that means it’s the first week of picks.

The other day I talked about seasonal depression. Let’s talk about real depression. Since Tuesday, the Yankees have lost their AL East lead completely then regained it the following night only to lose it again the next night and the Giants lost on Opening Night at home to the Cowboys. But I really shouldn’t worry about that since it’s not like the Giants have the hardest schedule in the entire NFL or anything. And oh yeah, the NHL still isn’t close to preventing a second lockout in eight years. I’m not really a Coldplay fan, but this seems like a good time to get into them.

Before Super Bowl XLVI I promised a lot of things and said a lot of things that sort of got thrown out the window in the heat of Wednesday night’s battle between the Giants and Cowboys. How badly did I fail to hold up my end of the bargain? Let’s ask Maury Povich.

“Neil, you said if the Giants win for the second time in four years and beat the Patriots again and beat Tom Brady and Bill Belichick again and beat all the Patriots fans you went to college with in Boston again and beat the city of Boston again, you won’t care if the Giants don’t make the playoffs for the next 20 years. The lie detector determined … that was a lie!”

“Neil, you said if the Giants win Super Bowl XLVI, you would never say a bad thing about Kevin Gilbride again. The lie detector determined … that was a lie!”

“Neil, you said if the Giants win Super Bowl XLVI that when it comes to the two-minute drill defense, you wouldn’t complain about the Giants’ inability to make a stop in the final minutes of either half anymore. The lie detector determined … that was a lie!”

“Neil, you said if the Giants win Super Bowl XLVI that if the receivers make numerous drops in a game, you said you would no longer complain about the excessive miscatches. The lie detector determined … that was a lie!”

There were a lot more things I said and promised, but I freaked out on Maury, gave the finger to the booing audience, threw a chair, ran behind the set and curled up in a corner and bawled my eyes out while Maury tried to console me with his expert counselor. That’s how bad things were on Wednesday night against the Cowboys.

We always hear about the “same old Jets,” but what about the “same old Giants?” Opening Night was the textbook example of what the Giants have put me through over the years, and while I understand anyone disgusted with me for being upset with a team that is coming off their second championship in four years, but at the same time if you’re not a Giants fan then you just don’t get it.

So I lied. We all do it. We all make promises to win a championship, but when that new season starts, all you want is another championship, and another and another and another. Look at Boston. In October 2004, people were willing to give up their life savings and their homes and their hair and their limbs and their children for a Red Sox World Series. They got it, but a year later those same people were devastated when the Red Sox were eliminated in the ALDS by the White Sox. If the Cubs win the 2013 World Series, their fans will want to win in 2014. And if the Jets win the Super Bowl this year, their fans will want to win it again next year. (Of course neither of those hypothetical situations will come true.) It’s the nature of the beast, and you can’t change it.

I want to apologize to Kevin Gilbride for granting him the empty promise of “Ladies and gentlemen!” immunity and I want to apologize for all of the promises I didn’t keep, but now that the new season has started and the Giants are 0-1, all I can think about is playoff football again (since there might not be playoff baseball for the Yankees) and I remember what it’s like to not have your team in the playoffs, and it sucks.

I’m still telling myself that if the Giants become the Jets this season and don’t make the playoffs, I will still have XLII and XLVI. But I know I’m just lying to myself, and there’s nothing wrong with that.

***

Last season, my NFL picks went about as well as the Bay of the Pigs. I started off hot, got warm, got lukewarm, got cold, got ice cold and then froze. I did manage to redeem myself in the postseason, but by then it was too late to salvage the year. However, I think my success was due to the Giants’ success, so I had less time to worry about the picks because I was focused on the Giants and writing about them on their second magical run.

Week 1 is my favorite week to pick games for. Why? Well, you get a clean slate (well, almost clean since I already lost the Giants game on Wednesday night) and because all you have to go off is what you have learned from the end of last season and the offseason. Once every team plays a game, everything you have taken in over the last seven months gets masked by how that team performed in Week 1 and it only gets worse as they play more and more games.

Week 1 … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

NEW YORK GIANTS -4 over Dallas
I picked this one on Twitter on Wednesday. How about a mulligan? No? OK.

CHICAGO -10 over Indianapolis
I think there are three places that Andrew Luck didn’t want to begin his NFL career: the SuperDome, Lambeau Field and Soldier Field. Unfortunately for Luck, he will make his first career start in Chicago at Soldier Field against one of the best defenses in the game. I actually thought this line was low given the Bears’ success last season before Jay Cutler got hurt and given how bad the Colts were last year.

Here is how Peyton Manning’s rookie season started:

Week 1 vs. Miami: Loss, 1 TD, 3 INT
Week 2 at New England: Loss, 1 TD, 3 INT
Week 3 at New York Jets: Loss, 0 TD, 2 INT
Week 4 vs. New Orleans, Loss, 1 TD, 3 INT

Peyton started the year 0-4 with three touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He didn’t get his first win until Week 5 against the Chargers and would go just 2-14 that season. If things were that bad for Peyton Manning and the Colts in 1998, I don’t see how they will be that much better for Andrew Luck and the Colts in 2012.

Philadelphia -9.5 over CLEVELAND
You don’t know how bad I want to pick the Browns here, but I just can’t and Brandon Weeden is why. If the Eagles are as good as everyone thinks they are and the Browns are as bad as everyone thinks they are, this line could be 14 and I would still have to take the Eagles.

Buffalo +3 over NEW YORK JETS
On Friday, I did a podcast with my friend and crazy Jets fan Tim Duff. The optimism glowing from him over the phone was what I imagine it’s like talking to a Kansas City Royals fan on the eve of Opening Day. There’s just so much hope and so much promise and the new-car smell and feel of a clean season is very powerful. But I have a feeling Tim is going to be hungover on the train from MetLife back to the city on Sunday afternoon wondering why he even cares about the Jets.

NEW ORLEANS -7.5 over Washington
I watched maybe three minutes of preseason football. And because I’m not a college football guy, the only RG3 I have ever seen is on highlights. Last season, Eli Manning the eventual Super Bowl champions went into the SuperDome and got absolutely destroyed. So am I supposed to think that the absence of Sean Payton is going to be enough for an unknown rookie quarterback and a bad team to go in and play a tight game against the best home-field advantage in the league? No, I’m not.

New England -6 over TENNESSEE
I wonder how much money the Patriots have cost people picking them to cover since 2007. The Patriots continue to get incredible respect, and they have earned it, but if their defense is as bad as it was last year, this will be a pick I regret. On the other hand, I can’t talk myself into taking the Titans and watching the Patriots score touchdowns on their first three possessions, so I have to play it safe here.

Jacksonville +3.5 over MINNESOTA
The year after the Vikings lost to the Saints in the NFC Championship Game I was picking the Vikings every week to open the season. What did they do? They started 0-2 then they were 2-5 then 3-7 and finished 6-10. The 2010 Vikings destroyed me and I’m still not over it. The scars are deep enough that I’m taking Blaine Gabbert and the Jaguars on the road to open the season.

HOUSTON -13 over Miami
The only team the Browns have to worry about giving them a run for the worst record in the league is the Dolphins. Hard Knocks didn’t do the Jets any favors in the summer of 2010 when it came to making unnecessary headlines and this summer Hard Knocks didn’t do the Dolphins any favors by exposing just how atrocious they are going to be this season. Meanwhile Houston is a legitimate contender and the AFC South favorite. If the Yankees don’t make the playoffs and the Dolphins are once again the laughingstock of the NFL, we are going to need to make sure there is someone watching John Jastremski around the clock.

DETROIT -7.5 over St. Louis
It shouldn’t be as easy to win money as it was when you picked against the Rams last season, but it was.

KANSAS CITY +3 over Atlanta
This isn’t a popular pick since Matt Ryan wins the Battle of the Matts over Matt Cassel, but when you take the Falcons out of the Georgia Dome it’s like taking a fish out of the water.

San Francisco +5 over GREEN BAY
If there’s one game that has “REGRET” written over it in red pen and capital letters, it’s this one. Yes, I’m really taking Alex Smith in Green Bay on Opening Day. This feels so wrong. But at least I know what goes through Joe Girardi’s head when he starts Steve Pearce against left-handed pitchers.

Carolina -2.5 over TAMPA BAY
The Panthers have Cam Newton and Steve Smith and a good running game and a good defense. The Bucs have none of those things.

Seattle -3 over ARIZONA
An NFC West matchup! I always love these. I guess I have to take the Seahawks since they know who their starting quarterback is.

DENVER -2 over PITTSBURGH
Tim Tebow’s Broncos beat the Steelers in Denver in the playoffs. So why wouldn’t Peyton Manning’s Broncos have an easier time doing the same thing?

BALTIMORE -6.5 over Cincinnati
Everything points to this being too many points for a division matchup that isn’t the Patriots against the Dolphins.

OAKLAND -1 over San Diego
When I first saw this line, I couldn’t believe the Chargers weren’t favored because no one gets undeserved respect like the Chargers do. For a team that has done nothing to earn respect from Vegas over the last few seasons, picking against the Chargers has been a good way to earn some easy wins, and I’m not going to shy away from my love of picking against them now.

Season: 0-1-0

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