Andy Dalton – Keefe To The City

Sep 17, 2015

NFL Week 2 Picks

It’s hard to know what’s real and what’s not when you only have one week of results to go by and that’s what makes Week 2 the hardest week to pick in the season.

There isn’t an overreaction in the world greater than that after Week 1 in the NFL. After Week 1 we are led to believe that Peyton Manning is finished, Marcus Mariota is the best quarterback ever, the Seahawks’ NFC reign is over, Pete Carroll is an idiot … actually, that’s true … the Vikings are the worst team in football, Joe Flacco is the worst quarterback in the league, the Jets are back and it’s incredible that Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin won two Super Bowls … that might be true too.

Week 1 takes everything you think you know about football and takes all the opinions you made in the offseason and momentarily justifies or destroys them. It can completely change how you go about viewing and picking Week 2 and leave you in a deep state of devastation or financially ruined after the early games if you’re not careful. It’s hard to know what’s real and what’s not when you only have one week of results to go by and that’s what makes Week 2 the hardest week to pick in the season.

(Home team in caps)

KANSAS CITY -3 over Denver
Peyton Manning is lucky his defense bailed him out on Sunday against the Ravens, or the Broncos would be headed to Arrowhead at 0-1 and looking at a possible 0-2 start to the season.

The last two games Peyton has played have to be two of his, if not the worst, of his career. The home playoff debacle after a bye week last season was shocking and whatever he was doing in Week 1 against Baltimore was frightening. I don’t know if this is the Peyton we will see from now until he retires, but if it is, it’s going to be hard to back the Broncos this season.

Houston +3 over CAROLINA
Here’s what I said last week about the Texans:

I’m not sure how Bill O’Brien and Rick Smith came to the conclusion that Brian Hoyer should be the Texans’ starting quarterback over Ryan Mallett. To be fair, it’s not like he named Hoyer the starter over a clearly more talented player and the two likely have the same amount of ability. But did they watch Hoyer play for the Browns? If you’re looking for one touchdown, two interceptions and 227 yards then Hoyer is your guy because that’s what he is and because we know what he is, why not start Mallett? At least there is a chance he might be somewhat good or at least better than Hoyer.

Guess who’s the starting quarterback for the Texans this week? Ryan Mallett.

I was a little off on Hoyer’s game since he threw for 236 yards, one touchdown and only one interception, but if I knew that it was inevitable that he would lose his starting job, how could Bill O’Brien not know this? The Texans wasted one of 16 games last week in what was a very winnable home game and a game they lost by 7 despite Hoyer doing his absolute best to lose it. With the Texans’ defense, Mallett doesn’t even have to be great, he just has to be better than Hoyer, and that’s not hard to do.

NEW ORLEANS -10 over Tampa Bay
Ah, the Saints in the Superdome. There are a few things that you can can count on when picking NFL games like always taking the points in NFC East matchups, always taking the points in Steelers-Ravens games and always taking the Saints at home in the Superdome to cover any spread. There might not be any guarantees in gambling, but those are the three things you can actually feel confident about.

Jameis Winston gave Marcus Mariota a headstart on everyone thinking the Buccaneers drafted the wrong guy No. 1 and in the 30 for 30 about the two in 20 years, there is a lot of video from Week 1 of 2015 to sort through. After this week’s loss in New Orleans, the Bucs go to Houston and by then will be 0-3 and the countdown clock until Lovie Smith’s firing will be closing in on zero.

PITTSBURGH -6 over San Francisco
The 49ers will only go as far as Carlos Hyde takes them. I don’t think Colin Kaepernick is very good since he hasn’t been able to adjust to the league after it adjusted to him, making Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith and Vernon Davis non-factors, which had made the offense revolve around Hyde’s legs. The Steelers had 10 days off and coming off a loss and having their home opener and having the opportunity to prepare to shut down Hyde is a recipe for disaster for the 49ers, whose over/under win total was 6.5. This is going to be one of those 9.5 losses.

MINNESOTA -2.5 over Detroit
When it comes to Week 1 overreactions, the idea that the Vikings might be the worst team in football is at the top of the list. A bad game on the road in San Francisco against a team everyone had left for dead despite being two-plus years removed from the Super Bowl and one-plus year removed from the NFC Championship Game isn’t going to end the Vikings’ season. There’s no way an offense with Teddy Bridgewater, Adrian Peterson, Mike Wallace and Charles Johnson can be as bad as they were in San Francisco, and there’s no way the Vikings defense is going to let someone embarrass them again the way that Carlos Hyde did in his debut as a starting running back.

BUFFALO +1.5 over New England
After the Giants-Falcons game, this is the game I care the most about this week. Rex Ryan and his 1-0 Bills that have everyone talking because they routed the fraud Colts against Bill Belichick and his 1-0 Patriots that have everyone talking because whenever they win a game for the rest of eternity, there’s going to be some report that cheating might have been involved.

The Rex Ryan Bills looked exactly like the Rex Ryan Jets last week, and that’s not such a bad thing for going up against the Patriots because the Rex Ryan Jets had as much success as anyone not named the New York Football Giants against the Patriots in recent years. A Bills win will have Rex running his mouth as well as he ever did in New York and a Patriots loss might finally get some of the talk about the air pressure in footballs, the frequencies on headsets, the taping of other team’s sidelines and all the other rumored cheating ways of the Patriots to potentially fade. I can dream.

Arizona -2.5 over CHICAGO
Here’s what I said last week about the Bears:

This season I have made a pledge to myself to go hard after the Bears. I’m not getting suckered into thinking they can or will be good and I’m not changing my mind on them.

And I know exactly what the Bears are trying to do me right now. They lost a close game 31-23 to the Packers at home (even though they scored a very late touchdown to make it an eight-point game) and they want me to think, “Hey, the Bears nearly covered against the NFC favorites and now they’re home again against a much lesser offense giving points? Why not take the Bears?” In the past I would have fallen for this trap game, picked the Bears and then watched Jay Cutler throw the game away despite having two stud wide receivers (one of them is now with the Jets), a top running back and a great receiving tight end. Not this year. I’m not falling for the Bears this year.

CLEVELAND +2 over Tennessee
When Johnny Manziel entered Sunday’s game against the Jets and immediately threw a touchdown pass to take the lead, the thought of the Johnny Football era taking off at the hands of the Jets made me smile and feel warm inside. But after that play, Manziel looked exactly like the guy we saw last season, who couldn’t win the starting quarterback job over Brian Hoyer, and the Jets went on to blow out the Browns.

No matter what happens in this game, we all lose. If the Titans win, Marcus Mariota is 2-0 and the best quarterback in history. If the Browns win, it’s going to be Johnny Football all day and all night for the next week. I think I would rather hear about Manziel than Mariota, but since I have been a full-time passenger on the Johnny Football bandwagon, a home loss to the Titans, will have me jumping ship for the foreseeable future.

San Diego +3.5 over CINCINNATI
It’s the Battle of Which Team Has Screwed Me Over More Over the Years. I don’t really know who is worse in this situation when it comes to having to back either Philip Rivers or Andy Dalton, but like the Bears, I made a promise to myself to stay away from the Bs this season: the Bears, Bengals and Browns. I have given myself one mulligan for this season, and unfortunately, my wanting Johnny Football to work out led me to use that mulligan this week to pick the Browns. If the Browns win, I retain my Bs mulligan and can use it on a future game, so maybe at some point I will pick the Bengals, but it won’t be today.

St. Louis -4 over WASHINGTON
I was more than scared when the Dolphins were effing around in Washington last week and failing to cover for most of the game against the Redskins. But maybe the Dolphins looking like the Dolphins I feared they might be in 2015 was a blessing in disguise. Sure, everyone who picked them to cover and who picked them in their survivor pools had to sweat out the win, but their seven-point win helped make this week’s line lower against the impressive Rams defense. So thank you, Dolphins for doing just enough to win to make Week 2 easier. I know that why’s you underperformed so greatly and not because you’re once again going to define “average NFL team” this season.

NEW YORK GIANTS -1.5 over Atlanta
Can you have a must-win game in Week 2? That’s a question I have written about the Giants for the now the fifth straight season. After Sunday night’s disaster that left me speechless and wondering if I even wanted to be a part of the 2015 NFL season or if I ever wanted to watch football again, I actually got over Tom Coughlin’s clock management and Eli Manning’s score management fairly fast. Sure, I spun the situation into the fact that the Giants were supposed to lose in Dallas anyway and that they just need to split the season series with the Cowboys, so they can beat them at MetLife in October, but that’s what fans of losing teams do: they make excuses. I don’t want to have to make any excuses this week. The Falcons outside of the Georgia Dome are very much like the Saints outside of the Superdome, and with the Redskins on Thursday Night Football in Week 3, I should be writing in Week 4 about the 2-1 Giants.

Baltimore -6.5 over OAKLAND
The Ravens went to Denver as 5-point underdogs and lost 19-13 despite Joe Flacco throwing for 117 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions. The Raiders, meanwhile, lost Derek Carr for most of their game against the Bengals and lost 33-13. There’s just no way I can pick the Raiders here after picking them last week and feel even the slightest bit confident that they will cover against the Ravens. There’s no way at all.

Miami -6.5 over JACKSONVILLE
I made the mistake of backing the Jaguars in Week 1 and thinking they might actually turn it around this season. They still might since there are 15 games left, but they also put up nine points at home against the Panthers, and I’m just not ready to continue to have confidence in the Jaguars. I’d much rather back the overhyped and definitely-going-to-underachieve Dolphins.

Dallas +5.5 over PHILADELPHIA
The best-case scenario for this game is that both teams beat the crap out of each and tie. If the Cowboys win, they will be 2-0 and 2-0 in the division. If the Eagles win, they will be 1-1 and so will the Cowboys, and if the Giants win, the whole division (not including the Redskins since they don’t count) will be 1-1. Having everyone be 1-1 is better for the Giants’ playoff chances to have the entire NFC East be clustered. I will be rooting for the Eagles, but knowing these teams and NFC East games as a whole, it will be decided by three or less.

GREEN BAY -3.5 over Seattle
I was in Seattle when these two teams played in the NFC Championship Game and I wanted the Seahawks to win because I thought they posed a bigger threat to the Patriots in the Super Bowl. I was right until Pete Carroll went and ruined the Super Bowl and the entire offseason. Eff, Seattle and eff the 12s. Sunday, I’m a Cheesehead.

New York Jets +7 over INDIANAPOLIS
It’s nice that once again the Jets got a cupcake game in Week 1 and their fans think the Jets are back and the King of New York and all that. It’s even nicer that they have to go on the road to Indianapolis and face the Colts, who were embarrassed last week and will be looking to go out of their way to erase their awful offensive performance in Buffalo. I think the Jets will cover, but it’s more important to me that the Colts win.

Last week: 9-6-1

Blogs • Giants

Sep 10, 2015

NFL Week 1 Picks

I hate the end of summer and post-Labor Day means the days are only going to get shorter and the weather is only going to get colder and soon enough you won’t want to go outside. So here we go. For the next 22 weeks, there’s football.

Keefe To The City has partnered with USA Football Pools for a survivor pool this season. It’s free to play and the winner will get a $250 Visa gift card. Sign up now.

I hate the end of summer. I have seasonal depression, or at least I think I have seasonal depression and post-Labor Day means the days are only going to get shorter and the weather is only going to get colder and soon enough you won’t want to go outside. But I love that football is back tonight, the Giants begin their season in three days, the Yankees are headed to the postseason in some form and the Rangers’ season begins in 27 days. I guess there are some positives to fall.

The beginning of the football season gives every team and every fan a chance to believe in their team and in moments like this happening (that’s me in Boston after the Giants beat the Patriots in Super Bowl XLII. I might have had a few beers). That night I drank in celebration at a bar in Faneuil Hall in the heart of Boston watching the highlights of the game over and over and over and over until the bar kicked us out.

The next morning I woke up without any traces of a hangover and walked out onto Hanover Street, which looked like the opening scenes of Vanilla Sky or I Am Legend. There was hardly any people around and the handful of people I did see had a look of complete devastation across their face. I couldn’t have been happier. That’s what football can do.

I haven’t liked football for a while. The last time I enjoyed football was the second before Russell Wilson threw a pass intended for Ricardo Lockette that was intercepted by Malcolm Butler. Actually, the last time I liked football was the second before Pete Carroll decided to throw the ball on the goal line with the Super Bowl at stake and the best running back in the league on his team. The second before Carroll opened his mouth and suggested that play or agreed to that play was the last time I liked football.

Since that second, the Patriots went on to win the Super Bowl, ending a nine-season drought without a championship, Tom Brady became a four-time Super Bowl champion, Boston sports fans argued that Marshawn Lynch might have not gotten in the end zone from the 1, Darrelle Revis became a champion and the worst thing in the history of sports happened: Deflategate. If Carroll gives the ball to Lynch there, the Seahawks win the Super Bowl, the Patriots are once again losers on the biggest stage, Jermaine Kearse’s catch unseats David Tyree’s catch as the most improbable Super Bowl catch of all time and Deflategate doesn’t spiral out of control because no one cares if a non-championship team may or may not have altered the footballs. But none of that happened and instead for nearly eight months at one point of every day I saw or heard the word “Deflategate” some place.

I was in Seattle for the NFC Championship Game and I saw about two seconds of the AFC Championship Game. I had heard the score and didn’t need to witness the Patriots embarrassing the Colts a week after the Ravens couldn’t close them out. Later that night in the hotel room, my girlfriend showed me a tweet that the Patriots supposedly played with underinflated footballs. My first thought was, “I don’t even know what that means” since I simply didn’t understand if that was good or bad or how that could be an issue. I thought it was just some nonsensical report that would either be laughed at or forgotten. I went to sleep on Jan. 18 not knowing about how footballs are handled before each game, what the proper PSI levels are for footballs or that quarterbacks got to use their own personal footballs in a game. When I woke up on Jan. 19, that nonsensical report hadn’t been forgotten.

I still can’t believe that for nearly all of the 2015 calendar year (minus the 17 days before the AFC Championship Game), Deflategate has pretty much controlled the headlines. The idea that people could spend so much time talking about the air pressure in footballs, reading every piece of information from the investigation and suspension and appeal and listening to sports radio recycle the same mind-blowing opinions on the topic is actually insane. Trying to understand how this much time, attention, money and resources were used on trying to figure out how footballs were lacking the necessary air is like trying to understand why Joe Girardi will use Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller in a game the Yankees are winning by five runs, but not in a game they’re losing by one run or why How to Make it in America was cancelled after two seasons or trying to grasp something as complex as the universe. Deflategate makes my head hurt to think about.

Unfortunately, Deflategate will never go away. The word will always follow Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and the Patriots around just like Spygate has. The Brady/Belichick Patriots will always be the victims of a witch hunt to Patriots fans and cheaters to non-Patriots fans. Even though the D-word is here to say just like the S-word has stayed alive for the last eight years, on Thursday night we will all finally have something else to talk about: a real-life football game. That is, until the Patriots beat the Steelers, like they always do at Gillette Stadium. Then, we will all have to hear about how they cheated to win the season opener too.

Tonight begins a new NFL season and with that comes a new picks season and another 263 games to pick. Last season, I finished 129-130-4, losing the final game of the season, the Super Bowl, on the play that should have gotten Pete Carroll fired. That play motivated me to work hard this offseason and get in the best shape of my life and make sure this picks season doesn’t end the way the last one did.

So here we go. For the next 22 weeks, there’s football.

(Home team in caps)

NEW ENGLAND -7 over Pittsburgh
As a Giants fan, I have to question the Patriots’ so-called cheating tactics. Either they lost on purpose a few times to make it seem like they weren’t cheating the way you might get a few questions wrong on a test on purpose to not make it obvious. Or they are just the worst cheaters of all time.

If the Patriots were videotaping signal givers and stealing playbooks and breaking into hotel rooms for information, did they forget to do these things for some of the biggest games? After their Super Bowl win in 2001, they missed the playoffs in 2002. They won the Super Bowl in 2003 and 2004, but then they lost to Broncos in the playoffs in 2005, blew a 21-6 halftime lead to the Colts in the 2006 AFC Championship Game, blew the perfect season and lost Super Bowl XLII to the Giants, got run out of Gillette by the Ravens in 2010, were embarrassed by the Jets at home in 2011, lost against to the Giants in Super Bowl XLVI, were shut down by the Ravens in 2012 and got dominated by the Broncos in 2013 before winning the Super Bowl this year.

Like I said, the Patriots were either losing on purpose to keep things balanced or they just aren’t very good cheaters given all of the information they supposedly had, taped and stole. Or maybe they just weren’t doing anything that every other team was already doing? No, it can’t be that.

Green Bay -7 over CHICAGO
This season I have made a pledge to myself to go hard after the Bears. I’m not getting suckered into thinking they can or will be good and I’m not changing my mind on them. I don’t care if they start the season 5-0 or or 7-0 or go 10-0 or complete the perfect season. If they do any of those things, good for them, but I’m not changing my mind on the Bears.

HOUSTON -1 over Kansas City
I’m not sure how Bill O’Brien and Rick Smith came to the conclusion that Brian Hoyer should be the Texans’ starting quarterback over Ryan Mallett. To be fair, it’s not like he named Hoyer the starter over a clearly more talented player and the two likely have the same amount of ability. But did they watch Hoyer play for the Browns? If you’re looking for one touchdown, two interceptions and 227 yards then Hoyer is your guy because that’s what he is and because we know what he is, why not start Mallett? At least there is a chance he might be somewhat good or at least better than Hoyer.

NEW YORK JETS -3 over Cleveland
The Jets always seem to get a cupcake game in Week 1 even if there is supposedly no such thing in the NFL. Last season, the Jets opened at home against the Raiders. The year before they opened at home against the Buccaneers. The year before that they opened at home against the Bills. It’s like they are playing the equivalent of Alcorn State, Tennessee-Martin and Arkansas State in Week 1. The Jets seem to always win in Week 1 because they’re at home against a weak opponent, which is once again the case this season, and then the Jets are 1-0 and their fans start mapping out their route to a postseason berth and before you know it they’re 1-3 and trying to keep their season alive.

After this game, the Jets follow with at Indianapolis, home against Philadelphia and at Miami before their Week 5 bye. Todd Bowles better get his first win as Jets head coach against the Browns or he might not be getting it until Oct. 18 and Week 6 against Washington. That’s a long ways away and there’s a lot of time between now and then for Jets fans to buy billboards and fly planes over practice suggesting he be fired.

BUFFALO +3 over Indianapolis
I wouldn’t mind seeing the Bills do well and have a winning season and make the playoffs. The only problem with that is their quarterback is Tyrod Taylor. His backup is Matt Cassell. His back up is EJ Manuel. That’s a big problem to have, but so is not having a run defense, which the Colts still don’t have.

Miami -4 over WASHINGTON
This is the official survivor pool Week 1 pick for just about everyone. In a week in which there are many even-matched and coin-flip games, you can always count on the Redskins to give you a much-needed win to stay alive.

For the last few years, we have been hearing about how the Dolphins will challenge the Patriots in the AFC East and each time they have failed. This year, the Dolphins are supposed to be even better and once again challenge the Patriots and reach the postseason for the first time since 2008. If the Dolphins are as good and reliable as they are being hyped up to be then this line is incredibly low. Even if the Dolphins are an average team, this line is too low. Even if the Dolphins are in the bottom third or bottom fourth of teams in the league, this is line is still too low. That’s how bad the 2015 Redskins are.

JACKSONVILLE +3.5 over Carolina
The Game of the Week. Somewhere someone who isn’t a Jaguars fan or a Panthers fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Thank about that.

Seattle -4.5 over ST. LOUIS
The Seahawks and I are not on good terms. After I became an honorary Seahawks fan and a 12 for the Super Bowl they went on to blow a 10-point lead and blow the game to ruin my Super Bowl Sunday and the days that have followed since. I don’t know if I’ll ever be able to forgive them for the loss and I absolutely will never forgive Pete Carroll for his play call. But if the Seahawks (and Pete Carroll isn’t included in this) are going to try to win me back it’s going to be by consistently covering spreads week in and week out. Here’s their first chance at redemption.

ARIZONA -3 over New Orleans
We all know what happens when you take the Saints out of the Superdome. Now take them out of the Superdome without Jimmy Graham.

SAN DIEGO -3 over Detroit
These two teams are the same to me and this is the hardest game of the week to pick. I did trade Matthew Stafford for Eli Manning in fantasy football, so I have to root heavily against Stafford this season.

TAMPA BAY -3 over Tennessee
Jameis Winston vs. Marcus Mariota in Week 1. I’m surprised this hasn’t been sold as the “Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady of the future”. If it were, Winston would be Manning would weapons like Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson and Mariota would be Brady with Kendall Wright and Harry Douglas to throw to. I’m thankful that the NFL Sunday Ticket is available to everyone this year, so that I don’t have to be forced to have the NFL Red Zone get stuck on this game since the only thing I would need or any non-Bucs and non-Titans fan would need from this game is the final score.

OAKLAND +3.5 over Cincinnati
I could care less about the NFL preseason. It’s baseball season until the Yankees either win the World Series or are eliminated and even if you don’t like baseball, there has to be something better to do with your time than watch meaningless preseason football games. The only crazier people in the world than those who watch preseason games are those who attend them. It’s not like spring training where you’re likely getting away from cold weather and enjoying the sun and watching a product that resembles what you see for 162 games in the summer.

The only thing I look for in preseason are finding out which key Giants were injured since it’s inevitable and videos of Andy Dalton throwing interceptions. And there’s only one thing more entertaining than Andy Dalton preseason interceptions and that’s Andy Dalton regular-season interceptions and once again there will be a lot of them.

DENVER -5 over Baltimore
Since I don’t watch preseason football, the last time I watched Peyton Manning play he was throwing wobbly passes as if he were trying to make a Nerf ball without seams spiral and the passes weren’t going to anyone. He finished that home playoff loss against the Colts at 26-of-46 for 211 yards and a touchdown despite coming off a bye, which momentarily made everyone think the Colts had a chance against the Patriots before they were blown out.

I have no idea what Manning will look like this season if he could have looked so bad against a bad defense with a trip to the AFC Championship Game on the line. I don’t think he would have come back if he were going to continue to play like that, so for now, I’m trusting that a healthier, yet older, Peyton Manning came back because he would be good enough to cover spreads once again.

New York Giants +6 over DALLAS
I’m overly confident in the Giants right now. I’m talking high levels of irrational confidence about a team that has gone 13-19 over the last two seasons and hasn’t made the playoffs in the the last three seasons. That could all change in one minute on Sunday night or even one play if Eli Manning opens the season with a first-play interception the way he did against the Cowboys in Week 1 on Sunday Night Football two years ago.

What scares me the most about the 2015 Giants isn’t the absurd amount of preseason injuries for the third straight year or the health of Victor Cruz or the absences of Jason Pierre-Paul or the offensive line or the secondary. What scares me the most is what Prince Amukamara said about this game by calling it a “must-win.”

“I could see everyone’s [butt] getting tight, everyone feeling like they are on the hot seat. You definitely don’t want that feeling around. It’s a bad disease.

“I think that can break the team’s morale, especially with the guys that have already been here and have experienced 0-1, than 0-2 and 0-6 (in 2013). It’s just a bad taste in your mouth. And with this organization, which wants to win now and always has a sense of urgency.”

The idea that a Week 1 loss could cause the team’s butts to “get tight” and “break the team’s morale” isn’t exactly reassuring for the season if they do lose to the Cowboys. Since Amukamara basically called this game the Super Bowl following the most uninspiring preseason from the Giants maybe ever, I’m not scared about this game, I’m petrified.

ATLANTA +3 over Philadelphia
Everywhere I turn I see the Eagles being picked to win the NFC East and be a Super Bowl contender. Is Sam Bradford not the Eagles’ starting quarterback? Has he not missed the last 23 regular-season games? Was the last time he played in an NFL game not Oct. 20, 2013?

In five seasons, Bradford has played 16 games twice and has played in 49 of a possible 80 games (61 percent). If Bradford were to get hurt and miss time, which obviously is a real possibility, then the Eagles would turn to Mark Sanchez once again. If you forgot, the Eagles were 7-2 last season and with Sanchez as the starting quarterback, they went on to miss the playoffs.

The Phillies are fighting to not be the worst team in baseball, the Flyers are horrible and the 76ers haven’t been good since Allen Iverson played for them. If the Eagles aren’t good, the Philadelphia sports landscape will be full of bad teams, which is more incentive to pick against the Eagles.

Minnesota -2.5 over SAN FRANCISCO
I have no idea when I’m going to sleep in the next five days. The Yankees have a four-game series against the Blue Jays beginning on Thursday. The NFL season opens on Thursday. The first NFL Sunday is this Sunday and the Giants play at 8:30 p.m. There is the Week 1 Monday Night Football doubleheader with the second game (this game) starting at 10:15 p.m. Normally this is like Raiders-Chargers and I could watch it while falling asleep, but my girlfriend is a Vikings fan, so I will be awake and invested in this game. Since I will be watching intently with a crazed Vikings fan next to me, I have to go with the Vikings here otherwise the next time I will be able to get a good night’s sleep won’t be as early as Tuesday.

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Blogs • Giants

Jan 9, 2015

NFL Divisional Round Picks

It’s the supposed best week of the playoffs. Four games over two days with the 1-seeds in play. Either the hated (at least hated on this site) Patriots or the scummy Ravens will lose, either

It’s the supposed best week of the playoffs. Four games over two days with the 1-seeds in play. Either the hated (at least hated on this site) Patriots or the scummy Ravens will lose, either Tony Romo or Aaron Rodgers will go home and either Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck’s season will be over. And, oh yeah, the Panthers’ season is over because they are going to get run out of Seattle.

I ended the regular season two games over .500, needing to go just 5-6 in the playoffs to finish over .500. After last week’s 1-3 disaster thanks to believing in Ryan Lindley on the road, the untrustworthy Steelers and a Bengals team led by Andy Dalton and Marvin Lewis playing without A.J. Green and Jermaine Gresham on the road, I’m making things interesting when they don’t need to be. I deserved to go 1-3 with choices like that.

This week will be different because it has to be. There is too much on the line when it comes to my picks and My Super Bowl XLIX Dilemma and an eventual champion.

(Home team in caps)

Baltimore +7 over NEW ENGLAND
The Ravens’ wins this season have come against Pittsburgh (2), Cleveland (2), Carolina, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Tennessee, New Orleans, Miami and Jacksonville. Their losses have come against Cincinnati (2), Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, San Diego and Houston. The Ravens have gone 2-6 against winning teams, and both of their wins came against their rival in the Steelers. They are the 6-seed in the AFC and the only reason they were able to sneak into the playoffs is because half of their schedule this season was played against the AFC South and NFC South. So why does anyone think the Ravens can beat the Patriots or even keep the game close? The real answer is I have no idea, but for me, I have no choice other than to hope the Ravens can keep the game close and to hope that they can win the game outright.

It pains to me to have to root for the Ravens, considering that they’re probably the scummiest organization in all of professional sports (yes, even scummier than the Red Sox), but like I said, I have no choice. The Patriots are two wins from getting back to the Super Bowl and three wins from ending what will be a 10-year drought if they are eliminated this week or next week or lose in three weeks in Super Bowl XLIX. But no matter what happens today, if the Ravens win or the Patriots win, we all lose. Either the Patriots are one step closer to doing something they have failed to do for the last nine seasons, or the Ravens will be that much closer to becoming champions in a season in which all of the karma in the world should be going against them.

SEATTLE -11.5 over Carolina
This should be the 4:30 game on Saturday because people have things to do at that time on Saturday and missing this game and checking later to see the Seahawks won by 30 points is acceptable.

Last week, Jon Gruden seemed amazed every time the Panthers made a mental or physical mistake against the Cardinals. Gruden couldn’t believe that the Panthers could be so bad or so careless with the football in a playoff game. And each time Gruden’s voice hit astonishing levels, I so badly wanted Mike Tirico to interrupt him and remind him that the Panthers are a 7-8-1 team that would have been focused on their draft position rather than a playoff game if they had played in any other division. Five of the other division winners finished with 12 wins (4.5 more wins than the Panthers) and the other two finished with 11 (3.5 more wins than the Panthers).

The Seahawks won 12 games, a year after winning 13 games and three more in the playoffs. They have gone 28-7 over the last two years and after starting 3-3 this season, they are 9-1 over their last 10 and have given up a total of 39 points in the last six (6.5 points per game).

The Seahawks are the best home team and the best team in the NFL and they are going to win the Super Bowl. The Panthers might not score on Saturday night.

GREEN BAY -6 over Dallas
The game of the week played between two teams I hate with one having to move on and play for a trip to Glendale. It’s a nightmare situation like the Red Sox and Angels meeting in the ALDS or the Flyers and Devils meeting in the Eastern Conference semifinals.

The Cowboys were the 11th-ranked team in My Super Bowl XLIX Dilemma, just ahead of the Patriots. (The only team that could challenge the Patriots for the top spot is the Eagles.) Their season should have ended last Sunday against the Lions before the refs took over the game, screwed the Lions over on the pass interference and then did everything other than carry the ball into the end zone themselves on the Cowboys’ go-ahead (and eventual game-winning) drive.

The Cowboys don’t deserve to still be playing football and the Packers at Lambeau will make sure of that.

DENVER -7.5 over Indianapolis
I used to think if the Broncos could win the 1-seed in the AFC and host the AFC Championship Game then the Patriots wouldn’t have a red carpet to the Super Bowl. But ever since the Broncos were 6-1 and went to Gillette Stadium in Week 9 and left with a 43-21 loss, they haven’t been the same team. Sure, they were 6-2 after their loss to the Patriots and they went 6-2 over the final eight weeks of the season, but something has been off about the Broncos.

Unfortunately, I think the best chance of the Patriots getting eliminated before the Super Bowl is this week against the Ravens and that’s not a very good chance considering the Ravens couldn’t beat a winning team all season not named the Steelers. Neither the Broncos or Colts are going to beat the Patriots on the road, but the Broncos’ chances are better than the Colts’ since their team is one player.

I really, really, really hope the Broncos can find themselves and return to being the team that ran through the AFC playoffs a year ago. Because without that happening, Super Sunday isn’t going to be about gambling, getting drunk and eating 5,000 calories. OK, it’s still going to be about those things, but it’s really going to be about continuing the drought.

Last week: 1-3-0
Season: 128-128-4

Blogs • Email Exchanges • Giants

Sep 24, 2014

Turning Point for Giants and Redskins

The Giants and Redskins meet on Thursday Night Football and one team will head into a 10-day break feeling good at 2-2 and one team’s season will be over at 1-3.

Sunday was a must-win game for the Giants and Thursday is also a must-win game for the Giants. After getting past the Texans and what would have been a disastrous and season-ending 0-3 start to the season, the Giants are faced with the possibility of either getting to 2-2 before a 10-day break, or falling to 1-3 and basically guaranteeing a third straight playoff-less year.

With the Giants and Redskins meeting on Thursday Night Football, I did an email exchange with my friend and the biggest Redskins fan I know, Ray Schneider, to talk about whether the Redskins’ future is with RGIII or Kirk Cousins, if moving on from Mike Shanahan was the right move and how the Jay Gruden era has been going in Washington.

Keefe: The first thing I said when RGIII went down with a dislocated ankle was “Oh fuck.” Not because I’m an RGIII fan or care about his future or the Redskins’ success but because I’m a Giants fan, and one who knows that Kirk Cousins is a better quarterback than RGIII and that means the Redskins just got better in an already cluttered NFC East.

Cousins has only reinforced my opinion on the RGIII-Cousins debate by throwing for 250 yards and two two touchdowns against the Jaguars and then 427 yards and three touchdowns in a devastating loss to the Eagles. (I unfortunately had the Redskins in a parlay.)

Ray, the future for your Cubs is looking up with their abundance of young talent and the future of your Redskins could be looking up if they finally admit that Cousins is the better option over RGIII at quarterback and stick with Cousins even when RGIII returns. I know Cousins has said, “This is RGIII’s team,” but it shouldn’t be even though I want it to be for the Giants’ sake.

Please tell me that you know Cousins should be the permanent starter.

Schneider: When I began reading that, I thought your initial response to RGIII’s injury was out of concern for my well-being. But yeah, there’s no denying that Cousins has played great these past 2 weeks and is light years ahead of RGIII in Gruden’s offense at this point. As a Skins fan, my hope is that Cousins continues to play out of his mind for the next 6-7 weeks and there isn’t a question of who the permanent starter is once RGIII is healthy.

That being said, there was never an expectation that 3esus was going light up the league beginning Week 1. Gruden was brought to DC to evolve RGIII’s game and some of the hiccups along the way were to be expected. Griffin’s ceiling is so much higher than Cousins’ that I am okay with the bumps and bruises along the way, but if Cousins plays at an elite level for the remainder of his stay as interim starter, he’s our guy.

Keefe: I was somewhat concerned for your well-being after the Week 1 debacle against the Texans mixed with the loss of RGIII, but after the rout of the Jaguars and the play of Cousins, I thought you were probably doing fine.

I’m very surprised to have you so easily agree with me on Cousins over RGIII. After RGIII’s draft and following postseason appearance I thought you were going to grow your hair out again, get dreadlocks and get RGIII’s jersey tattooed on your body. I mean, you nearly did that for Jason Campbell seven years ago, and when Campbell’s days in Washington were over and he played for Oakland, Chicago, Cleveland and now Cincinnati, I pictured you singing Pearl Jam’s “Black” if his career ever finally took off.

I know someday you’ll have a beautiful life, 
I know you’ll be a sun in somebody else’s sky, 
But why, why, why can’t it be, can’t it be mine?

I know how strongly you support your Redskins, so I think it’s normal for me to be shocked that you so quickly jumped off the RGIII for the Cousins one. Maybe Cousins can be your Matt Saracen or do you think the Redskins are still a few years from that? If so, how many years? Cubs years?

Schneider: Slow down … I haven’t gotten off the RGIII bandwagon quite yet. I still really do believe that RGIII has the talent to be a multiple Super Bowl winning quarterback, but I also realize the injury concern with him is legitimate — which is why I’m going to the tattoo artist on Saturday to see how hard it’ll be to have the “10” on my chest touched-up to read “8” (the guy worked wonders changing the “17” to a “10”, so I’m hopeful).

If Cousins can continue to play the role of franchise savior over this audition run, it is a wonderful problem for the Skins to have. Do we move forward with the guy that established himself as one of the best young quarterbacks playing in 2014 or do we move forward with the guy that had arguably one of the most dynamic seasons ever by a quarterback and won us the division just two years ago? Not really a bad problem.

If Kirk proves to be more Matt Flynn and less Tom Brady over these next two months, the question of RGIII’s durability becomes a lot more frightening.

Keefe: That “10” used to be a “17?” Get out of here. That guy does great work.

When Mike Shanahan was the head coach, it seemed like every week there was a new story about his relationship with RGIII and they all seemed to negative. It didn’t help that standing between the head coach and the franchise quarterback was an offensive coordinator who was Shanahan’s son, but there always seemed to be a disconnect between the coach and quarterback, especially at the end of his tenure.

Shanahan came to to the Redskins 12 years removed from winning the Super Bowl with the Broncos and was supposed to bring with him the offensive genius he was during his time in Denver. The Redskins went 24-40, lost their only playoff game to the Seahawks and finished in last place in the NFC East three of the the four years Shanahan was coach. However, I don’t think he’s that distraught over it since he’s making $7 million this year to sit at home and not coach football, which is a lot more money than you and I are making to not coach football this year.

Before we get to the Jay Gruden era, were you a Shanahan guy and should he have been back for 2014?

Schneider: At first I was, but what’s important to remember is that Shanahan was hired on the heels of Jim Zorn’s departure. At the time it seemed like things were being righted with the Redskins. Snyder’s longtime yes-man/VP of Football Operations, Vinny Cerrato, had just left and control of the team was going to be shared between Bruce Allen and Shanahan. No longer did the fate of the Skins lie in the hands of Snyder and the dude that starred in the acclaimed film Kindergarten Ninja.

Pretty much immediately following Shanahan’s introductory press conference is when things stopped being so rosy. Listed in somewhat chronological order, here are some of the highlights of the Shanahan era:

1. Donovan McNabb: Andy Reid still can’t believe he got a second- and fourth-round pick. Mike also signed Donovan to a five-year extension a week after benching him for Rex Grossman and just hours before Donovan’s former team came to FedEx Field and did terrible things to the Skins. A few weeks later Donovan was once again benched for Rex and so ended his DC-stay.

2. Albert Haynesworth: Granted Shanahan had nothing to do with bringing Fat Al to the Skins and the guy is a genuine piece of shit, but the whole conditioning test was embarrassing for everyone involved.

3. Rex Grossman/John Beck: The Skins have had some pretty storied quarterback battles in their history, Grossman vs. Beck is not one of them, but don’t let Mike tell you otherwise as he said, “I put my reputation on these guys that they can play.”

4. Week 3, 2011 at Dallas, Zero Blitz: With Dallas facing a third-and-21 and trailing by 1 late in the fourth quarter, the Skins call an all-out blitz. Tony Romo hits Dez Bryant for a 30-yard hookup and the Cowboys kick a field goal and win the game. Defensive coordinator Jim Haslett was blasted by the fan base for this call except Mike was the one that made the call.

5. Wild-Card Game vs. Seattle: Some could argue that Shanahan took the easy way out by relying too-heavily on RGIII’s legs and didn’t take the time to develop his skills as a passer — I’m not going to, that season and RGIII were electrifying. BUT what Shanahan and son did in the playoff game was absolutely reckless. With Robert already playing on a clearly hobbled knee, the Shanahans continued to call zone-read after zone-read until The Savior’s knee was shredded.

6. 2013 Draft: The Redskins had seven picks in the 2013 Draft — only two remain on the active roster and only one will be playing against the Giants this week.

So no, I did not want Mike Shanahan around this team any longer.

Keefe: I knew things were bad during the Mike Shanahan era, I didn’t realize how in-depth bad they were, so thank you for laying those out for me. I only wish you had told me those in person, so you could be present for me laughing. Donovan McNabb! Albert Haynesworth! Rex Grossman! Oh my!

I missed most of that wild-card game against Seattle because I was up in Boston that weekend to see Louis CK and I believe I was on my way back to New York City when Shanahan was busy blowing out RGIII’s knee as if he were Kurt Russell in Miracle calling for Team USA to bag skate over and over just waiting for someone to collapse on the ice. You siad it was “reckless” and I would agree. I would also say it was “irresponsible” and not only because it was detrimental to RGIII’s career, but because a different game plan could have won that game for the Redskins.

That brings us to Jay Gruden. Since you’re happy the Mike Shanahan era came to an end, are you happy that the next era started with Jay Gruden as the head coach?

Schneider: I am and that’s largely because of what Gruden did with Andy Dalton. With Gruden being a former quarterback himself, everything that is said about him is that he approaches the game with the mindset of a quarterback. Obviously after Shanahan shredded both RGIII’s knee and his psyche, it was exciting to hear there would be someone in charge that would build him back up.

Even with the Gruden directed Griffin redemption story being put on hold for the next few weeks or maybe forever, I still think Skins fans have a reason to be excited. The offense can not only move up and down the field but they can also score points, which Shanahan teams had trouble doing.

Gruden isn’t the control freak that Shanahan was either. He’s happy to let the defensive coaches call their game without his interference & they’ve looked much better … aside from the 37 points they let up on Sunday.

With better special teams play and little more discipline, the Skins should be 3-0 right now. Everyone can play the shoulda, coulda, woulda game, but these are things a young coach will clean up, so I think the future is bright with Gruden.

Keefe: You sound optimistic about the Kirk Cousins era, the Jay Gruden era and the Redskins as a whole, which is exactly how I would expect you to sound since you are usually feeling good about your team at this point in the season. Hopefully the New York Football Giants can change that on Thursday night.

One team is going to leave FedEx Field at 2-2 and one is going to leave at 1-3. If the Giants win, they will have won back-to-back games after an embarrassing and disappointing 0-2 start in which their offense looked worse than Roger Goodell lying his way through his press conference last week. If they lose, they will be 1-3 with and have a divisional loss lingering for the next 10 days before starting the following schedule: Atlanta, at Philadelphia, at Dallas, BYE, Indianapolis, at Seattle, San Francisco, Dallas. I don’t want to say the Giants’ season is over if they lose to the Redskins because you never know with the Giants, but their season is likely over if they lose.

If the Redskins win, they can feel good about themselves after dropping back-to-back games and Kirk Cousins will have confidence before playing the Seahawks and Cardinals. If they lose, their only win so far will have been against the Jaguars and their season could fall apart with Seattle and Arizona the next two weeks.

This game is the turning point for both teams. One of us is going to be happy for the next 10 days and one of us is going to be wondering how their season ended before the end of September.

What do you expect on Thursday night?

Schneider: It’s never good to be declaring a game a must-win by Week 4, but you’re right, this is a must-win for both teams.

As much as last week’s loss to the Eagles was devastating, it could serve as a real confidence builder for the team. Stomping the Jaguars was fun, but there was still the realization that it was the Jaguars. Going into Philly and giving the defending NFC East champs all they could take for 60 minutes is a completely different story. I foresee the Skins riding this wave of confidence to a 31-17 victory that looks more lopsided than it sounds.

Blogs

Oct 19, 2012

NFL Week 7 Picks

The first over-.500 week came last week, so the pressure is on to keep it going in Week 7.

You can already hear people saying it and it’s exactly what I didn’t want to have happen.

“The Giants are the best team in the NFL.”

I’m not sure if there’s a “best” team in the NFL anymore as the parity in the league has gotten out of control and no team is safe. There’s a good chance the Giants are the “best” team in the league right now, but “right now” only lasts through Monday night and by then that title could be stripped. For now, let’s keep it quiet and between us because we don’t want the Giants to know that there is hype building around them.

The last thing the Giants need at 4-2 with their ridiculous schedule is to start thinking they are the team to beat and better than they are. They obviously didn’t care about being defending champions when they lost to the Cowboys at home on Opening Night and they didn’t want to listen to Eli Manning when he preached about “getting off to a fast start” before they had to dig out of double-digit hole against the Browns two weeks ago.

History has shown us that the Giants succeed when there is doubt surrounding and when the attention is elsewhere like in New England, Philadelphia or Dallas. It only makes sense that the Giants would start to gain respect the same week they are playing the Redskins (a team that went 2-0 against the Giants in 2011 with Rex Grossman as their quarterback) at MetLife Stadium (a place where the Giants have trouble winning despite it being their home). This matchup has “letdown” written all over it and it wouldn’t surprise me if the Giants take this game lightly after winning in San Francisco. That’s who the Giants are and they’re never changing. I don’t think I want them to.

***

Last week I said I didn’t have time to give a take on the teams and the picks, and I didn’t. I was drafting off the Yankees postseason and I still am even though they have been eliminated. It will likely take me until the end of October to re-energize and they aren’t even playing anymore. I miss baseball and it hasn’t been 24 hours since the season ended. It’s going to be a long five-plus months until Opening Day.

I had been chasing an over-.500 record in my picks for five weeks before finishing 8-6 in Week 6. That also happened to be the same week I just picked the game without writing anything about any of the games. So you would think that I would probably do the same thing this week to see if lightning could strike twice, but I’m not going to mail it in this week even if I didn’t do the picks for Thursday like I promised I would for the rest of the season two weeks ago. (Give me a break! The baseball season just ended!) Even though I’m experiencing full-blown depression from the Yankees being swept in the ALCS, I’m going to pick myself up off the mat and do what the Yankees couldn’t do in the ALCS: my job.

Week 7 … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

SAN FRANCISCO -7 over Seattle
A push thanks to Jim Harbaugh declining the holding penalty in the end zone that would have resulted in a safety and a cover and a win to start Week 7. But I wouldn’t expect anything less. Nothing comes easy in this league and especially not a Thursday win to get things rolling after an 8-6 week.

BUFFALO -3 over Tennessee
I wish I knew why I’m always picking the Bills to cover spreads and win games. Maybe it’s because my grandmother is from Buffalo? I’m not sure. But I’m doing it again. Try to stop me.

MINNESOTA -6.5 over Arizona
All of a sudden the Vikings are the 2007 Patriots and getting exceedingly high numbers each week. But I have backed Kevin Kolb before and I’m not about to again.

INDIANAPOLIS -2 over Cleveland
I’m not sure what happened to the Colts last week against the Jets because well, it’s the Jets, and the Colts were coming off an emotional home win against the Packers. I wish I could see the line for this game if it had been played in Week 6 instead of Week 7 with the Colts coming off beating the Packers and the Browns being winless.

Baltimore +6.5 over HOUSTON
This is all about the points.

Green Bay -5.5 over ST. LOUIS
I think the Packers sensed the urgency on Monday Night Football in Houston and answered the bell. I was hoping they would finish the season at 8-8 or maybe even 7-9 and be one less team to worry about in the playoffs, but that’s not going to happen. The Packers are back and they have the St. Louis, Jacksonville and Arizona before their bye week. Get in on the Packers now before their lines hit double digits in the next two weeks.

Dallas -2.5 over CAROLINA
A Dallas win in Carolina isn’t good for the Giants in the division or for more controversy surrounding the Cowboys, but picking the Panthers and Cam Newton isn’t good for anyone.

NEW YORK GIANTS -6 over Washington
There’s a good chance my friend Ray (the biggest Redskins fan I know) won’t be talking to me for a few weeks after this beatdown. I know he won’t leave his home and his fiancée and his dog to watch the game with me, but I wish he would because this game is going to force him to drink, and Drunk Ray is always a good time.

TAMPA BAY +2 over New Orleans
At 0-4, the Saints had nothing left to play for this season except for Drew Brees breaking Johnny Unitas’ record in Week 5, and that’s why I picked the Saints over the Chargers that week. But now that the record is broken and the moment is over, the Saints are a 1-4 team trailing in their division by 4 ½ games to the undefeated Falcons. The Saints’ season is over, and after a week off they are probably wishing they had the next 11 weeks off too.

New York Jets +10.5 over NEW ENGLAND
This could get ugly and make the 34-0 beating the Jets took at MetLife from the 49ers look like nothing. But that’s a lot of points for a team to get on the road against a division opponent even if that team has Mark Sanchez as a quarterback and no-name receivers. The Patriots are 3-3 and let the Seahawks come back against them last week and I’m sure the NFL has already penciled in Tom Brady as the FedEx Air Player of the Week for Week 7. But I can’t shake the notion that friend/enemy (frenemy?) Mike Hurley has pretty much guaranteed a Patriots blowout in this game and when Mike Hurley guarantees anything Patriots related, the opposite happens. Giants fans for Jets

OAKLAND -4.5 over Jacksonville
It’s the “Do I Really Have to Pick This Game of the Week?” No one screws me over like the Raiders, but I can accept it and that’s what this matchup comes down to: Who would I be less upset with screwing me over? The answer: Oakland.

CINCINNATI +1 over Pittsburgh
It’s tough for me to pick Andy Dalton over Ben Roethlisberger here considering the Steelers’ season is getting away from them. But these two teams are essentially the same team and since Week 10 last year when the Steelers won in Cincinnati they have won just two road games in Kansas City and Cleveland.

CHICAGO -6.5 over Detroit
I don’t think the Bears want to hear about how the Giants never get respect around the league for being an elite team because you rarely hear anyone talk about the Bears. Two years ago they went to the NFC Championship Game, last year they were 7-3 before Jay Cutler got injured and they’re already 4-1 this year. This is the last team in the NFC I would want the Giants to have to face, especially at Soldier Field.

Last Week: 8-6-0
Season: 42-48-1

Tag: Andy Dalton

NFL Week 2 Picks

NFL Week 1 Picks

NFL Divisional Round Picks

Turning Point for Giants and Redskins

NFL Week 7 Picks