1. The same situation. That’s what the Yankees had and Aaron Judge faced in the first inning of Game 2 of the ALCS. Gleyber Torres on second, Juan Soto on first and no outs. A chance to break open a game as soon as it started.

The same situation took place in Game 1 of the ALDS, Game 2 of the ALDS and Game 1 of the ALCS and each time the Yankees failed to capitalize. Between Judge, Austin Wells and Giancarlo Stanton, Torres and Soto were stranded all three times. In Game 2 of the ALCS, Judge failed to get the job done again, but Gold Glove finalist Brayan Rocchio did it for him.

2. Judge popped up the second pitch he saw from Tanner Bibee and as I looked up in the Bronx sky to track it, it was so high it looked like it may leave the atmosphere. I glanced back to the field to watch Rocchio try to position himself to catch it, battling the wind and shuffling his feet toward second base. The crowd’s roar began to ascend as the ball began to descend and after what felt like minutes of hang time, the ball hit the side of Rocchio’s glove and Torres raced home, Soto ran to second and Judge stood on first. The Yankees had a 1-0 lead, still had two on with no outs and Bibee had already thrown 11 pitches.

Would this be the game the Yankees broke the game open in the first inning and coasted to their first lopsided victory of the postseason? It would not. Wells struck out and Stanton flew out to right.

Leaving baserunners on has become a staple of the Yankees’ postseason. They seemingly have multiple baserunners in every inning of every game and fail to cash in unless runs are walked in or there are wild pitches and errors. They’re still waiting for that big hit. That big hit that can create separation on the scoreboard and take some of the pressure off of their starting pitcher.

3. The Yankees didn’t necessarily get the big hit for Gerrit Cole in Game 2, but they did stake him to a 3-0 lead and he couldn’t make it through the fifth inning. Cole unraveled in the fifth inning, loaded the bases without recording an out, allowed a run on a sacrifice fly and reloaded the bases. Four of the five batters he reached in the fifth reached as he allowed 10 baserunners in 4 1/3 innings.

“I lost a little bit of the zone,” Cole said, “a few too many walks again.”

It was a putrid performance from the Yankees’ “ace” and his second performance like that in the postseason. A three-run lead against the Guardians offense should be enough for Cole to give his team at least six innings. Leaving in the fifth after being unable to get an out in the sixth in Game 1 of the ALDS doesn’t exactly exude confidence in Cole if the Yankees reach the World Series to face the Dodgers’ or Mets’ offense. Thankfully, for Cole, that Kyle Isbel ball died on the track in the seventh inning of Game 4 of the ALDS in Kansas City, or the Yankees may not still be playing and the conversation around being unable to perform in the playoffs would be focused on Cole and not Judge.

4. Judge finally hit a ball over the wall in his sixth game of the 2024 playoffs, sending a two-run shot to Monument Park in the seventh inning off of Pedro Avila.

“I was excited it went out,” Judge said. “You never know on these windy, chilly nights what the ball is going to do when you hit it to center here. The ghosts were pulling it out there to Monument Park, that’s for sure.”

The two runs were two much-needed insurance runs as the Yankees’ lead had dwindled from three to one and back up to two before that home run.

“It’s always a matter of time with Aaron,” said Boone. “It’s definitely good to see him put one in the seats and really give us a cushion there.”

It was the first “game-opening” hit of the postseason for the Yankees as it put them up four with six outs to go.

5. Those six outs came from Tommy Kahnle and Luke Weaver. Kahnle got seven outs in the game in relief of Tim Hill, who got five. Hill was the unsung hero of the game, getting his five crucial outs across the sixth and seventh innings. When he entered the game, the Guardians had cut their deficit to one run and Hill kept it right there, allowing the Yankees to increase that deficit to two in the sixth and four in the seventh. The White Sox release the 34-year-old, left-handed Hill on June 18 and the Yankees signed him on June 20. He pitched to a 2.05 ERA across 35 games in the regular season for the Yankees and has gotten nine big outs in the playoffs so far.

6. The bullpen as a whole has been outstanding in October, especially Clay Holmes, and obviously, Luke Weaver. Holmes has been pitching like the guy Aaron Boone and the Yankees didn’t want to remove from the closer role all season despite the mounting blown saves. Weaver has pitched like Mariano Rivera 2.0. The only blemish from either has been the solo home run that Jose Ramirez hit off of Weaver in the ninth inning in Game 2, which served as a harmless, meaningless run. Well, unless that’s the swing Ramirez needed to get going. But if it is, hopefully Judge’s home run was the swing needed to get him going, which would negate Ramirez starting hit like he’s capable of.

7. Jazz Chisholm picked up his first hit since his “lucky” comments following Game 2 of the ALDS. Anthony Volpe added a pair of hits and also walked as he has looked like the player of the first two weeks of the regular season that then disappeared for the rest of the regular season. Torres had three hits, Anthony Rizzo had two and Alex Verdugo had an RBI double. Only two Yankees failed to get a hit: Stanton, who is more than excused, and Wells, who again, needs to be removed from the cleanup spot.

8. I understand Aaron Boone is superstitious in not wanting to change the batting order while the team is winning, but Wells batting cleanup isn’t why they are winning. Hopefully, Wells is moved down in the lineup in Game 3 (if he plays) and until further notice, considering he has been abysmal since the end of August.

9. Clarke Schmidt gets the ball in Game 3 against veteran left-hander Matthew Boyd. Boyd didn’t allow a run in 6 2/3 innings over two starts against the Tigers in the ALDS and racked up 10 strikeouts. But that was the Tigers. Judge has a home run off Boyd in six plate appearances, Soto has one off of him in two and Volpe has a double off of him in two plate appearances, so the Yankees have had success against him in limited opportunities.

10. “We’ll got there and try to play like we didn’t do anything here,” Torres said, “just the same mentality.”

The Yankees have yet to play to the best of their abilities in the postseason, and they’re 5-1. They haven’t been hitting the ball out of the park with any frequency, leave nearly every baserunner on, have gotten two good starts from the rotation in six games and are running into outs on the bases. It would be welcoming to see what they’re capable of when they’re hitting with runners on, getting strong starting pitching and not making foolish baserunning mistakes.

After living through and attending the 2004 ALCS, I would never say a win in Game 3 in Cleveland would mean the series is over, but the 2024 Guardians aren’t the 2004 Red Sox, and a win in Game 3 would put the Yankees one win away from winning the pennant. The last time they were that close to winning the pennant was in 2017. The last time they won the pennant was 2009. Two down, two to go in the ALCS. Five down, six to go overall.

1. The Yankees gave Carlos Rodon a six-year, $162 million deal to pitch the way he did in Game 1 of the ALCS. (They also gave him all of that money to pitch well in the ALDS, but we can forget about that for now.) Rodon completely stifled the Guardians for five innings and left the game after allowing just one run on three hits over six innings.

“The goal was to just stay in control of what I can do, physically and emotionally,” Rodon said. “I thought I executed that well tonight.”

Rodon sounded like a completely different person from the pitcher who last week talked about his upcoming Yankees postseason debut and how he will control his emotions by saying, “It can propel me to very high highs and super low lows” and then followed that comment by acting maniacal on the mound.

Game 1 of the ALCS was the kind of performance every Yankees fan hoped to see in Rodon’s start in Game 2 of the ALDS, but Rodon was so emotionally, physically and mentally unstable in that outing that he let his stuff he described as “electric” fade once the slightest bit of adversity hit. In Game 1 of the ALCS, he kept his composure, didn’t walk around the infield after each strikeout with the demeanor and attitude of a professional wrestler, got 25 swings and misses and pitched the Yankees to a 1-0 series lead.

“He was very aware of what the last outing ended up being, how the emotions got away from him early,” Matt Blake said. “You could tell he was trying to stay steady and be neutral about it and just keep collecting outs.”

2. Rodon collected 18 outs and the Yankees’ offense clogged the base paths to score three of their five runs. No one loves traffic more than Aaron Boone and the Yankees’ offense made the bases look like the West Side Highway at 5:00 on a Friday against Alex Cobb and the Guardians’ bullpen. The Yankees put two on in the first, two on in the second, five on in the third and two on in the fourth. But the same way the Yankees failed to hit with runners in scoring position in the ALDS (and the same way they have failed to hit with runners in scoring position in every postseason of the last 15 years), they failed to do so again in Game 1.

Thank God for Juan Soto, Giancarlo Stanton and wild pitches. Soto gave the Yankees a 1-0 lead with a solo home run to lead off the third. It was the most predictable home run of all time as Soto entered the game 7-for-11 in his career against Cobb and then proceeded to single and homer off the righty.

“I was just locked in on that pitch,” Soto said of his home run. “He showed me the pitch three times, so I thought he wanted to get that pitch and land it, and I was ready for it.”

The Yankees managed to score two runs on wild pitches in the third as well, plated a fourth run on an Aaron Judge sacrifice fly in the fourth and added a fifth when Stanton hit a long home run off the back wall of the Guardians’ bullpen in the seventh.

Through five postseason games, the Yankees are still searching for that big hit that blows open a game. In Game 1 of the ALDS, they used bases-loaded walks to beat the Royals, lost Game 2 when they left a small village on base, won Game 3 on the back of Stanton and won Game 4 with only three runs. On Monday, they needed two wild pitches in the same inning to increase their one-run lead to three. I don’t know how much longer they can rely on odd and unusual ways to score runs and win games and I don’t want to find out.

3. Game 1 never felt in doubt. Not when Judge, Austin Wells and Stanton left Gleyber Torres and Soto on in the first. Not when the Yankees stranded two more in the second. Certainly not after the Yankees jumped out to a 3-0 lead in the third, made it 4-0 in the fourth and 5-1 after seven. But after all of the missed opportunities throughout the game (the Yankees were 0-for-7 with runners in scoring position), there was something in the back of my mind telling me they may regret it. Because through seven innings, it felt easy. A little too easy.

4. Boone made sure it wouldn’t be easy. After Rodon gave him six innings of one-run ball and Clay Holmes mowed down the middle of the order on 14 pitches in the seventh, the pitching formula and plan was unfolding exactly as desired: Rodon for six then Holmes, Tommy Kahnle and Luke Weaver each for one. Unfortunately, Boone deviated from the plan.

With a four-run lead and six outs to go, Boone decided to not go to Kahnle for the eighth, opting instead for Tim Hill. Why? I wish I knew. Actually, I’m glad I don’t know since I don’t want to know what goes on in the head of Boone when he makes decisions like that. It could have been because the Yankees had a four-run lead instead of a three-run lead. It could have been because Boone wanted to try to steal outs with Hill in Game 1, so he could have an even-more-rested Kahnle in Game 2. Whatever the reason, it was foolish, and for the first time all night, the Guardians had life.

5. Hill allowed three consecutive one-out singles and a run to score before being pulled. When he left the mound, the Guardians had runners at first and third and one out. They would have the chance to cut their now three-run deficit even more, and barring a double play, would have two cracks at tying the game with one swing with one of those cracks going to Jose Ramirez.

Boone’s plan blew up because he couldn’t then go to Kahnle to relieve Hill. Not with the Guardians threatening with the tying run at the plate. Now he had to go to his best arm in Weaver to get six outs instead of the planned three. Weaver stranded the two baserunners, retired Ramirez and pitched around a leadoff walk in the ninth to close out the game and save Boone from what could have been a disastrous loss to open the series. Boone needs to be better. He was able to get away with that decision because it’s the Guardians. If the Yankees are to advance, a decision like that against the Dodgers or Mets could be the season. Boone needs to change his thinking quickly.

6. He also needs to change the lineup for Game 2. Austin Wells can’t bat cleanup anymore. Wells was awesome from the end of April through the end of August, but he hasn’t been a cleanup-worthy hitter for six weeks now. He can’t serve as Judge’s protection. He can’t keep coming up in important spots and not coming through. He’s likely tired from his first first full major-league season and the fact he played nearly every day once Jose Trevino went down during the season and then had to play nearly every day once Trevino returned because the Yankees were battling the Orioles in September for the division. Take some of the pressure off of him, let him focus on catching and move him down. Move Stanton to fourth, Jazz Chisholm to fifth and Wells to sixth. It’s time. It’s more than time.

7. It’s also time for Chisholm to start hitting. Chisholm has reached base once (via a walk) since his “lucky” comments after Game 2 of the ALDS. He went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts in Game 1.

8. Anthony Rizzo looked better than expected at the plate in his return and postseason debut (singling in his first at-bat and later walking), however, his misplay of a ground ball in the eighth inning can’t happen. (Oswaldo Cabrera and Jon Berti make that play.) Rizzo was oddly pulled from the game for the ninth with Cabrera taking over first base. Boone said Rizzo was “physically and emotionally spent,” but I have no idea what that means. How is Boone measuring someone being emotionally spent? Did Rizzo ask to come out of the game? Were his fingers bothering him? Boone said Rizzo is expected to start Game 2, but who knows. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Rizzo out of the lineup given Boone’s history of saying one thing and having the complete opposite thing happen the following day.

9. With the Game 1 win, the Yankees need to just play at least .500 baseball over the six remaining games of the series against a team they’re 5-2 against this season to advance to the World Series for the first time since 2009. It’s hard not to get excited about that realization and think ahead, but the Guardians have been a pesky problem in the past. The Yankees needed a full series of games to eliminate them in 2022 despite being the superior team then as well. And in that 2022 ALDS matchup, the Yankees won Game 1 with similar ease and had an early lead in Game 2 before dropping that game and Game 3. For as easy as Game 1 felt, I doubt the Guardians will make it that easy each game.

10. “There’s still three to get,” Stanton said. “We know this is good, but in our eyes, we haven’t done nothing yet.”

They’re three wins away from doing something, something this group has never done and with Gerrit Cole pitching at home in Game 2 on Tuesday, they’re in a great position to be two wins away.

Four down, seven to go.

After three days off, the ALCS is here.

Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.

1. If the Yankees are to advance to the World Series, their opponent will be a personal problem no matter what. Either they will face the Dodgers, and with my wife being from Los Angeles, the threat of having to live with the Yankees losing to the Dodgers in the World Series and me having to hear about it daily forever looms. Or they will face the Mets, and the threat of the Mets beating the Yankees in the World Series and changing the New York baseball dynamic and hierarchy looms. If the Yankees are to reach the World Series, they better win.

2. To get there, they will first have to eliminate the Guardians for the fourth time since 2017 (2017 ALDS, 2020 wild-card series, 2022 ALDS). I was rooting for the Tigers to win their ALDS matchup because of their impossibly bad offense, but it will be the Guardians, and that’s OK too.

The Yankees have owned the Guardians in recent years and beat up on them in the regular season this year as well. The Yankees went 4-2 against the Guardians this season and one of the two losses was a Caleb Ferguson extra-inning meltdown.

3. I’m confident about the Yankees in this series even with Carlos Rodon being their Game 1 starter.

“Game 1 sets the tone,” Rodon said. “I’m looking forward to being out there again, feeling the energy, and just giving my team the best chance to win.”

Rodon’s ALDS Game 2 start began with him striking out the side in the first, all while walking around the infield between batters like a maniac. He wasn’t stable mentally, emotionally or physically in that start, and it ended up being the only loss the Yankees suffered in the series. Rodon was pulled in the fourth inning of that start, similar to his only other postseason start in the 2021 ALDS with the White Sox against the Astros when he couldn’t get through the third inning. He can’t be that maniacal version of himself in Game 1 of the ALCS. He claims he watched Gerrit Cole’s poise in Game 4 of the ALDS to hopefully learn how to harness the mood-altering swings he experiences from pitch to pitch.

“Hopefully going through his first playoff game here in the Bronx,” Aaron Boone said, “and experiencing all the emotions that you do, there’s something that serves him well in his next time.”

4. The Guardians hit left-handed pitching and so it would have made sense to pitch Clarke Schmidt in Game 1 with Rodon going on the road in Game 3. Boone went with the high-paid veteran. It’s the Yankee Way: owed money trumps production.

Rodon has already banked $50.7 million in two years as a Yankee and is owed $111 million over the next four years. He would be nice if he earned some of that money by pitching well in the remainder of his postseason starts. If he does so and October ends with the Yankees winning the last game he pitches, his six-year, $162 million deal (which looks amazingly regrettable now) would all be worth it.

5. Oswaldo Cabrera and Jon Berti did a fantastic job, both offensively and defensively at first base in the ALDS. Apparently, it wasn’t good enough. Not only is Anthony Rizzo on the ALCS roster, but he’s playing first base and batting eighth in Game 1.

From Opening Day until Rizzo was injured on June 16, he had a .630 OPS in 291 plate appearances. He returned on September 1 and had a .660 OPS in 84 plate appearances. Whenever you can rush a guy with two broken fingers and a .637 OPS in 375 plate appearances back, you have to do it.

6. Cabrera and Berti combined to reach base seven times in 16 plate appearances in the ALDS and played first base flawlessly. There’s no way Rizzo, if healthy, would have posted a .438 on-base percentage in that series and I don’t know that he would have played first base flawlessly given his sloppy play in the field this season. Now add in him having not played in more than two weeks, likely still experiencing some level of pain on those two broken fingers and it’s like what are we doing here? Just play Cabrera or Berti. Here’s to hoping Rizzo isn’t a complete zero at the plate and doesn’t screw up in the field.

7. Here’s also to hoping Aaron Judge puts an end to his miserable postseason career because that’s exactly what it has been: miserable. Judge’s .762 career postseason OPS sits 248 points below his regular-season OPS of 1.010. That needs to change. I’m just not sure it’s going to change against the Guardians.

Here are Judge’s numbers against the Guardians in the postseason:

2017 ALDS: 1-for-20, 16 strikeouts
2020 Wild-Card Series: 1-for-11, four strikeouts
2022 ALDS: 4-for-20, 11 strikeouts

8. Judge has hit three home runs in 12 postseason games against the Guardians, but overall, he’s 6-for-51 with 31 strikeouts. The Yankees have eliminated the Guardians in each of three postseasons Judge has been a part of despite him hitting poorly, but him hitting poorly makes it challenging. He doesn’t have very good career numbers against Game 1 starter Alex Cobb (3-for-12 with a home run), but maybe facing the veteran righty will be what he needs to get going.

9. On the other hand, Juan Soto owns Cobb. Soto is 7-for-11 with a double, two home runs, a walk and two strikeouts against the righty. Like Judge, Soto failed to hit a ball out in the ALDS, but I would think that will change in the ALCS, and could change in the first inning of the first game. Don’t be surprised if Cobb gives Soto an unintentional intentional walk in the first and choose to pitch to Judge. It may be the only time the duo gets to face Cobb with the Guardians likely to go to their vaunted bullpen as quickly as they can. With each win in the postseason, the season gets extended by a day, and that means another game of Soto as a Yankee.

10. The Yankees haven’t won a seven-game series since the 2009 World Series. Since then, they lost the 2010 ALCS (4-2), 2012 ALCS (4-0), 2017 ALCS (4-3), 2019 ALCS (4-2) and 2022 ALCS (4-0). An 0-5 run in the ALCS for the franchise with an abysmal 7-20 record.

The Yankees don’t need to win Game 1 to win the series, but at home, with a rested Rodon and a rested bullpen, the odds are in their favor. Win Game 1 and they can play .500 baseball for six games against an inferior AL Central opponent and reach the World Series. Win Game 1 and they have Cole going in Game 2. Win Game 1 and … that’s all. Win Game 1.

The Yankees took an early lead against the Royals and never relinquished it in their series-clinching 3-1 win in Game 4 of the ALDS.

Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.

1. I had an uneasy feeling going into Game 4. I feared the Yankees offense may not show up or Gerrit Cole would lay an egg or Bobby Witt would finally start hitting and Aaron Judge wouldn’t or regular-season Clay Holmes would his rear his ugly head at the most inopportune time, or some combination of all. A loss in Game 4 would mean a winner-take-all Game 5 on Saturday in the Bronx with Carlos Rodon starting against strikeout lead Cole Ragans. Thankfully, that game won’t take place.

It won’t take place because Gleyber Torres doubled on the first pitch of the game from Michael Wacha, Juan Soto singled him in two pitches later, the Yankees took a 1-0 lead and never looked back.

2. I haven’t liked Michael Wacha since he was a 22-year-old rookie pitching in the 2013 World Series for the Cardinals. That postseason, after allowing one earned runs in 21 innings across three starts in the NLDS and NLCS, he pooped his pants against the Red Sox in the World Series and essentially served as the commissioner in handing them the Commissioner’s Trophy. Wacha got blasted for nine baserunners and six runs in 3 2/3 innings in the clinching Game 6. I will never forgive him for that performance and because of that, clinching the ALDS against the Royals with him taking the loss made it that much sweeter.

3. Like Wacha against the Red Sox in that World Series, I pooped my pants a little in the seventh inning when Kyle Isbel sent that 1-0 pitch from Cole to the right-field wall in what resulted in the third out of the inning rather than a game-tying home run. The ball would have been out on just about any other night in Kansas City if not for the wind, and it would have been out in 24 parks in the league. At Yankee Stadium, that ball is in the second deck into Section 205.

For such an important postseason game with the opportunity to clinch and advance on the line, once the Yankees got that early lead, the remainder of the game seemed like a formality. Cole was dialed in, the offense did just enough (their motto) and the combination of Holmes and the unhittable Luke Weaver was perfect in the eighth and ninth innings. Outside of that one swing from Isbel, the Royals were never really in it, as they only had two runners reach second base all game.

4. The Yankees did just enough to beat the Royals in four games. They got one great start (Game 4) and three lousy ones from their rotation. After Game 1, they never scored more than three runs in a game. They hit three home runs in the entire series. Their two superstars finished with OPS of .746 and .620. They drew 27 walks in four games and barely did anything with them. It was as if the Yankees knew they could coast in a class they were overqualified for and do just enough to get by and pass and advance to the next grade.

“Even though we didn’t score a ton of runs, I felt like we had a lot of tough, heavy at-bats that we like to have,” Aaron Boone said. “Hopefully we break through with some more runs next series.”

The same type of performance may have worked against the Royals and may work against the Guardians or Tigers in the ALCS since the Guardians and Tigers are no better than the Royals, but if the Yankees want to do something this group never has, at some point they are going to have to play to their best of their abilities. At some point, Judge is going to have to hit like the player that spent the year being compared to Barry Bonds, Soto is going to have to start hitting the ball out of the park the way he did for the Nationals and Padres in the postseason, Austin Wells is going to have to stop hitting like Jose Trevino, Jazz Chisholm is going to have to get back on track and the rotation is going to have to do much better than turning in a strong effort once every four games.

5. As for the bottom of the lineup, they did their job in the series. Alex Verdugo was the MVP of the Game 1 win (before immediately reverting back to his usual self with a groundout to right side in nearly every at-bat since), Anthony Volpe reached base in seven of 16 plate appearances, Oswaldo Cabrera played a fine first base for being not a first baseman and reached base in four of eight plate appearances and Jon Berti looked like a natural first baseman in playing the position for the first time ever and also reached base in three of eight plate appearances.

6. The bullpen also did its job.

Yankees rotation in ALDS: 20.1 IP, 24 H, 11 R, 10 ER, 3 BB, 19 K, 2 HR, 4.43 ERA, 1.328 WHIP.
Yankees bullpen in ALDS: 15.2 IP, 8 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 4 BB, 15 K, 0.00 ERA, 0.766 WHIP.

7. Chisholm was wrong in his assertion that the Royals “got lucky” in their Game 2 win. They weren’t lucky, they just weren’t good enough. They were as sloppy as the Yankees in Game 1 and scored three runs total between Games 3 and 4. It’s a good thing the Yankees eliminated the Royals because having another foolish trash talk thrown back in the Yankees’ and their fans’ faces forever would have been tough to stomach. If anyone is “lucky” it’s Chisholm who did nothing offensively to help eliminate the Royals following his comments as he went 0-for-7 with a walk in Games 3 and 4.

8. Boone had a pretty good series. There were only three decisions he made or didn’t make that I had issues with: He shouldn’t have let Cole start the sixth inning in Game 1, he should have challenged the play at first with Volpe to lead off the third inning in Game 3, he shouldn’t have pinch run for Giancarlo Stanton with two outs in Game 4. Outside of that, the decisions Boone made worked out, especially starting Verdugo in left field (at least for Game 1) and using Holmes as his second most important reliever in the series.

9. The next choice Boone will have to make on Monday when he fills out the ALCS Game 1 lineup card will be what to do at the cleanup spot. I think Boone will keep Wells in that spot because he seems to be superstitious about the lineup when the Yankees win, even if Wells has been extremely bad since the start of September. Wells did come through with a huge walk and a game-tying hit in Game 1, but since then he has been an automatic out (and even an automatic two outs like he was in Game 4 with a double play). It will depend on if the Yankees play the Guardians or the Tigers and if a lefty or righty starts, but if Wells remains between Judge and Stanton, he will be expected to hit.

10. Expectations haven’t worked out well for these Yankees. Ever since their unexpected run to Game 7 of the ALCS when they were expected to miss out on the postseason, they haven’t lived up to expectations over the last six seasons. After their 3-1 win over the Royals in Game 4 of the ALDS, for the first time in a long time they met an expectation: reach the ALCS.

Advancing to the ALCS was the minimum requirement for the 2024 Yankees. An ALDS loss may have led to wholesale changes within the organization in the offseason (but likely not since no one lost their job when the team missed out on the postseason completely in 2023). That minimum requirement was elevated to winning the AL pennant for the first time in 15 years once the Astros and Orioles went out in the wild-card round.

The Yankees are now four wins away from reaching the World Series. Four wins against an AL Central team from reaching the World Series. It’s something this Yankees core under this Yankees manager has never done. It’s something they may never have a better path and opportunity to accomplish. Three down, eight to go.

Giancarlo Stanton put the Yankees on his back and carried them to a 3-2 win in Game 3 of the ALDS.

Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.

1. The Yankees blew their opportunity to take a commanding lead thanks to a disastrous start and a lackluster offensive effort. They can’t afford to have either of those on Wednesday. If they do, they’ll be playing for their season on Thursday.

That’s what I wrote prior to Game 3 of the ALDS. Somehow, the Yankees had both a third straight disastrous start and a lackluster offensive effort, and yet, they won and are one win away from advancing to the ALCS.

2. Clarke Schmidt was good until he wasn’t, similar to Carlos Rodon’s performance in Game 2. I wrote after Game 2 that I didn’t trust Schmidt because I don’t trust any Yankees starter and Schmidt proved my lack of trust to be warranted: 4.2 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K.

Three starters and three stinkers from Yankees starters in the series. Gerrit Cole couldn’t get an out in the sixth inning in Game 1, Rodon couldn’t get through the fourth inning in Game 2 and Schmidt unraveled and was pulled in the fifth inning in Game 3. If not for all of the scheduled off days in this series, with the way the Yankees’ elite relievers have been used, I’m not sure where the Yankees would be.

Cole, Rodon and Schmidt this series: 13.1 IP, 18 H, 10 R, 9 ER, 3 BB, 15 K, 2 HR.
Yankees bullpen this series: 13.2 IP, 8 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 4 BB, 12 K.

It’s never good when your bullpen has recorded more outs than your starters in a postseason series, and again, if not for the days off, all of this, and the Yankees 2-1 series lead may not be possible.

3. The Yankees’ offense was also putrid for the third straight game in the series. The eight Yankees not named Giancarlo Stanton went 1-for-25. Thankfully, Stanton went 3-for-5 with an RBI double and a go-ahead solo home run in the eighth inning. Not only that, but the slow-footed (to put it kindly) Stanton stole his first base in four years.

The Stanton home run off Kris Bubic that gave the Yankees a 3-2 lead came on a third consecutive slider from the Royals’ left-hander. Bubic started the seventh and with two lefties (Austin Wells and Jazz Chisholm) sandwiched around Stanton, and the need to pitch to three batters, Royals manager Matt Quatraro decided he would rather have a lefty face Stanton than a righty face the struggling Wells and the he’s-not-Stanton Chisholm. Whoops.

The home run was the first Yankees go-ahead home run in the eighth inning or later in the postseason since Raul Ibanez’s walk-off home run in Game 3 of the 2012 ALDS. One, that was such a memorable, fun night at the Stadium back in 2012. Two, that’s ridiculous. That’s a span of 12 years and nine postseason appearances. Now you know why the Yankees haven’t reached the World Series in 15 years.

4. Prior to Game 3, I wrote that I would sit Stanton in favor of Jasson Dominguez to start the game because of Seth Lugo’s ability to keep the ball in park. (Lugo faced the most batters of any pitcher in the league this season and only 1.9 percent of them hit home runs.) I was partially right in that Lugo didn’t allow a Yankee to homer (he held the Yankees homer-less for 19 innings this year), but wrong since Stanton did pick up two hits against Lugo, including an RBI double to open the scoring in the fourth. I never thought Aaron Boone would actually not play Stanton in a playoff game, but his performance in Game 3 confirmed that. (The same way Alex Verdugo’s performance in Game 1 will now keep him in the starting lineup for the rest of the postseason despite him reverting back to his usual self.)

5. “When it’s the playoffs, he takes it to another level,” Schmidt said of Stanton. “I think there’s something to be said about players that can do that.”

I agree, Clarke. I think there is something to be said about players that can do that … and players that can’t. A lot of the Yankees lineup can’t.

If not for Stanton, the Yankees would be playing for their season in Game 4. The rest of the lineup’s 1-for-25 was disturbing, and to make matters worse, they racked up nine walks and only one of them scored (Juan Soto on the Stanton RBI double). The Yankees have 22 walks in the three games played so far and somehow they have won two one-run games and lost the other, scoring two runs in that loss. Twenty-two walks in three games! That should equate to double-digit run outputs every game and blowouts. Not nail-biting, eked-out wins.

6. It was another miserable night for Aaron Judge who went 0-for-4 with a walk. He’s now 1-for-11 with three walks and five strikeouts in the series. A nice, shiny 2-for-27 since the start of the 2022 ALCS. Austin Wells has barely been better than Judge at 2-for-12 with two walks and five strikeouts. At least Wells had the game-tying hit in Game 1 that he can hang his hat on. I’m not sure how the Yankees plan on continuing to win this month with their 3- and 4-hitters being their two worst hitters, but I guess we’re going to find out.

7. The combination of Anthony Volpe and Oswaldo Cabrera in the 7- and 8-spots had a big night. The duo went 1-for-3 with five walks. Volpe at-bats have been better than anyone could have expected in the series, and he has been on base in six of his 12 plate appearances. Cabrera bats at the bottom of the order, hasn’t even played in every game of the series, and he has as many hits (1) and as many walks (3) as Judge does in the series. (And one more extra-base hit, since Judge doesn’t have any.)

8. It was a rough night for Chisholm, who famously called the Royals “lucky” after their Game 2 win. Chisholm went 0-for-4 with a strikeout in the game. If you’re going to openly trash talk, please back it up. Yankees fans have had to endure enough backfired trash talk during the Boone era. Here’s to Chisholm having a big Game 4 and helping eliminate the Royals on their own field, so “They just got lucky” doesn’t become the 2024 version of Judge blaring “New York, New York” from a boom box at Fenway Park in 2018, which became the Red Sox’ victory song for their World Series run.

9. I thought it was a mistake for Boone to not challenge the play at first on Volpe’s groundout to lead off the third. I think it may have been overturned and the Yankees could have had the leadoff man on in that inning against Lugo. I also think the Yankees got screwed on the Gleyber Torres ball down the right-field line that was called foul, and stood as called after a challenge. It sure look like it hit part of the line.

10. “We need to wrap it up [Thursday],” Stanton said. “No wiggle room. We’ve got to get it done.”

Cole gets the ball in Game 4 with a chance to redeem himself from Game 1. I would have started Luis Gil in Game 4. If Gil starts and the Yankees win, Cole would be able to start Game 1 of the ALCS. If Gil starts and the Yankees lose, Cole would be ready to go for Game 5. Instead, if the Yankees advance, Cole will be starting Game 2 of the ALCS, and if the Yankees lose, they will be playing for their season on Saturday with Rodon starting. Please don’t let it get to that. Listen to Stanton: Wrap it up in Game 4.