Keefe To The City

Jan 17, 2014

Podcast: Erik Boland

Erik Boland of Newsday joins me to talk about the Masahiro Tanaka sweepstakes and what the future holds for Alex Rodriguez following his 162-game suspension.

We are a month away from pitchers and catchers reporting to Tampa and right now the Yankees don’t really know who exactly will be reporting. The starting rotation still has some holes to fill and hopefully one of those holes will be filled by Masahiro Tanaka who has narrowed his field down to three teams, which includes the Yankees.

And when it comes to spring training, the other big question is whether or not Alex Rodriguez will show up. After being suspended for all of 2014, A-Rod gave an unusual speech saying basically that Major League Baseball is doing him a favor by giving him a year to rest mentally and physically.

Erik Boland, the Yankees beat writer for Newsday, joined me to talk about the Tanaka sweepstakes and what the Yankees will do if they don’t land him, what A-Rod’s next move is and if A-Rod will ever play for the Yankees or in Major League Baseball ever again.

Blogs • Email Exchanges • Rangers

Jan 16, 2014

Rangers-Red Wings Isn’t So Rare Anymore

The Red Wings are at Madison Square Garden for the first time in almost two years and that calls for an email exchange with “J.J. from Kansas” of Winging It In Motown.

It feels like Rangers-Red Wings never happens. That’s partially because it rarely has until now. The two teams met this season on Oct. 26, but thanks to the lockout last year, they didn’t meet at all in 2012-13 and just once a season prior to that. So when the two Original Six teams meet on Thursday night at Madison Square Garden, it will feel more important than a normal regular-season game and that’s because it kind of is. Thankfully with realignment, we will get more than just one Rangers-Red Wings game a year now.

With the Rangers and Red Wings playing for the second of three times this season, I did an email exchange with “J.J. from Kansas” of Winging It In Motown to talk about the Red Wings playing in the Eastern Conference, how they were portrayed in 24/7 leading up to the Winter Classic and what’s been going on with them over the last six weeks.

Keefe: After a long, long time as an Eastern Time Zone team playing in the Western Conference, the Red Wings are where they should be when it comes to alignment thanks to the realignment. The Red Wings might be out of place in the “Atlantic” division, but at least they are in the right place when it comes to traveling. (The Red Wings shouldn’t feel too awkward about playing in the “Atlantic” with Columbus and Carolina being considered “Metropolitan.”)

What were you feelings about the Red Wings’ move back to normality and playing in their own time zone when the plans were announced? And what do you think of the realignment now 46 games into the change?

J.J.: Being honest about the switch to the East, since I’m in the Central Time Zone, it wasn’t really a big deal to me, but I always liked the concept. I especially liked that the schedule-making would adjust to leave the Wings with only two trips out West where we’d have games starting at 10 p.m. EST or later. Ultimately I was happy that the travel schedule wouldn’t be as brutal for Detroit, but this never felt to me as the eventual correction of old wrongs like it has to much of the older generation of Wings fans who didn’t grow up with the Central Division.

This season has been a weird, bittersweet experience for me. I haven’t experienced the weird playoff quirks yet, but I do like the new realignment plan as far as it’s worked on the NHL regular season. The adjustment has come in how I watch games on off days for the Wings. I’ve always preferred to watch division rivals’ games and root for whichever outcome would most benefit the Wings. In doing that, I didn’t watch a ton of Eastern Conference hockey in the last few years and as a result, it’s almost been a culture shock for me readjusting to a bunch of uniforms, players, and styles I to which I haven’t grown accustomed (not to mention half a league’s worth of local announcers). In the West, I can still pick out which line is on the ice for teams based solely on how the forwards skate. I haven’t gotten used to that yet in the East save for a few of the very familiar or standout players (the Penguins, Rick Nash and Phil Kessel).

Keefe: There isn’t a bigger 24/7 fan than me and I hope that my dream of it being stretched into covering a team for a full season will one day be realized. (Kind of like what ESPN did with The Season and the Red Wings in 2002-03 and the Avalanche in 2003-04, only better.) Who wouldn’t want a full season of the show?

Two years ago when the Rangers and Flyers were the stars of 24/7 for their Winter Classic in Philadelphia, it made the show that much better having “my” team be covered in depth for a month. This year you had “your” team as one of the co-stars of the four-episode series. What did you think about how the Red Wings were portrayed?

J.J.: I’d LOVE to see a full season of 24/7 … centered around somebody else. I don’t know if I’m just looking for excuses or my dumb caveman brain is sliding a bit of causation into the correlation between the Red Wings being on 24/7 and the Red Wings playing like crap in the weeks where the HBO cameras were following them around, but it seemed that while the cameras were rolling, the Red Wings were just not comfortable.

Overall, I think HBO did the best they could with the Wings, but I’m caught between wanting to have seen much more and wanting to respect that they’re professional hockey players and stay away from their private lives. I would have loved to have seen more of Pavel Datsyuk, but he’s a private guy and if he doesn’t want to deal with the HBO cameras that much, then so be it.

Keefe: This season of the show gave me a better understanding of the Red Wings and there were three things I really took away from it (aside from disliking Dion Phaneuf more). The first was how strong of a presence Mike Babcock has with the team and the organization. I have long thought that Babcock is the best head coach in the league (and that’s likely why he is also the Team Canada coach), but my opinion was only reinforced with the show and the way he handles managing his team on and off the ice.

The second was how badly the Red Wings have been crushed by the injury bug over the first half of season. Sure, the Rangers lost their best two players in Rick Nash for 17 games in October and November and Henrik Lundqvist for a week in October, and you could throw Ryan Callahan in there too, who has also missed 17 games. But those injuries are nothing compared to what the Red Wings have endured. Seeing Babcock write and re-write and erase the names on his lines and depth chart whiteboard was remarkable and almost made me feel like he was managing the 2013 Yankees and their injury bug. I guess I know why the Red Wings are a point out of the playoff picture.

And the last thing would be the way Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg are perceived by the younger players on the team, almost as if the younger players haven’t grasped the idea that they are in the NHL and playing with Datsyuk and Zetterberg. The way the younger players glowingly talk about the duo and look up to them shows how the team has changed and turned over since the two entered the league 12 and 13 years ago.

J.J.: As the Wings have seemingly come farther away from Stanley Cup contention in the last few years, the fan base has grown a bit restless with Babcock. He’s never given the local writers much of a glimpse behind the scenes and has always done a great job dodging attempts to get the kind of glimpses that reporters could run with on a story. We’ve always had a bit of a sense as to when he was either taking blame or sending a message to the media about his players, but without the behind the scenes access from 24/7, all we really had was a picture of a cagey coach who favors veterans to youngsters without any real in-depth explanation. Seeing how he interacted with the team, especially the youngsters, has been a big positive for me this season.

As far as the injuries, I’m among the fans asking for an audit of the Red Wings’ procedures as far as training and conditioning goes. I know that the common joke is that the Red Wings are old, but the rate of injuries and the type that we’ve seen most common (groin) is just disconcerting.

I think personally that part of the younger players idolizing the core veterans was partially scripted to make up for the HBO cameras’ lack of access to Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg. Hank (our Hank), was featured in that segment where he’s skating on his pond, but that’s pretty much all you got from him. It is very clear that what earned Datsyuk and Zetterberg their way in the NHL was each of their work ethics (even the old guard guys like Steve Yzerman commented on it before they left) so if the youngsters look up to them that much, it’s just the personnel changing around them and not the attitude.

Keefe: It doesn’t seem like a team with Datsyuk and Zetterberg and Daniel Alfredsson (even a 40-year-old Alfredsson should struggle) and strong depth and secondary scoring options should struggle the way the Red Wings have for the first half of the season. Can the 20-16-10 start to the season and being on the playoff bubble be chalked up as a result of the incredible rash of injuries or is it something more than that?

J.J.: I hate to keep using injuries as an excuse, but the sheer amount of change that happens to the Wings as a result of them can’t be ignored. The Wings’ system is based on puck movement more than grinding and that’s the kind of players they have. when players switch in and out of the lineup or up and down lines, the timing of everything falls off just a little bit and puck possession can suffer. When you have so many injuries that you have to change the system to a more dump-and-chase style, then you’re facing the whammy that is the Red Wings aren’t a team that was specifically built for that system, so they have some guys playing in roles that they’re not as well-suited for.

Despite that, there are three issues which are not injury related which have also combined to hurt the Wings. The first is that the young defensive corps is still learning the ropes and do not deal with aggressive forechecking as well as more-veteran players do. This slows down transition and causes them to spend more time in their own end facing shots. Second, the play of Jimmy Howard has not been as dominant as it has and that has cost them some points. Finally, for whatever reason, the Red Wings are 1-7 in the shootout this year, which has also stripped them of points.

When everything adds up, the Red Wings are not as bad a bubble team as their record indicates. I don’t think that they’re a top contender, but a healthy Wings team that gets even a bit luckier is an upper mid-tier contender at least on par with a team like Montreal or Tampa.

Keefe: The last time the Rangers and Red Wings met (Oct. 26), the Rangers were finishing up their season-opening nine-game road trip and arrived in Detroit with a 2-6-0 record and were coming off back-to-back losses to the (at the time) lowly Devils and Flyers. After giving up a devastating late second-period goal to Daniel Alfredsson with 11 seconds left in the second to give the Red Wings a 2-1 lead, Mats Zuccarello scored just 2:18 into the third to tie the game. Then in overtime, Derick Brassard scored with 13 seconds left to give the Rangers the win and their first win in Detroit since Jan. 30, 1999. Yes, 1999! Once again … that’s 1-9-9-9!

This time the Rangers and Red Wings meet with the Rangers playing their best hockey of the season, despite their 2-1 home loss to the Lightning on Tuesday night (it was the first time the Rangers failed to score more at least two goals since Dec. 10, which is actually unbelievable considering it used to happen every other game). The Rangers have won eight of their last 12, earning 17 of a possible 24 points and taking over the first wild-card spot in the standings. The Red Wings, on the other hand, have traded wins and losses for nearly a month and have won consecutive games only once since the start of the December.

What has been going on with the Red Wings over the last six weeks as they come to Madison Square Garden on Thursday night?

J.J.: The recent play of the Red Wings is a reflection of what we’ve talked about above. Whether it’s injuries, distractions, and flat-out unimpressive play, Detroit isn’t a very good hockey club right now and their recent record shows that. At some point, they’re going to start getting healthier and more consistent and will start stringing victories together more often, but there’s not an expectation that’s going to happen this week. None of the injured forwards are expected back for Thursday’s game and in fact, the Wings will be without one of the best players they’ve had the last few weeks, as Tomas Tatar went back to Slovakia this week to attend his father’s funeral after playing both Saturday and Sunday with a heavy heart caused by his dad’s passing last Friday.

Blogs • Giants

Jan 16, 2014

NFL Championship Weekend Picks

There are only two Sundays left in the season and three picks left to make in what are the best two possible Championship Game matchups.

There is so much at stake for all four teams and their quarterbacks and their coaches this weekend that is almost feels like Roger Goodell was somehow able to produce the matchups for the AFC and NFC Championship Games. But we know that’s not possible. It’s impossible. A commissioner of a league can’t determine which teams reach their sport’s final four. You probably wouldn’t have gotten the best of payouts if you had done a futures wager on the matchups this weekend, but it was predictable way before the first week of the season, way before Eli Manning threw an interception on his first pass attempt of the season in that first week. (What? You thought I would forget about Eli Manning in my picks even though he hasn’t played in a meaningful game since Nov. 24?)

So here we are in the last second-to-last football Sunday of the season with 256 picks down and three to go.

New England +5.5 over DENVER
It feels weird that this will be the early game on Sunday, but when you have a West Coast team hosting one of the two games, this is what happens. Peyton Manning-Tom Brady won’t feel the same or as important as it should at 3 p.m.rather than in darkness with one of the two Super Bowl teams already known and a legacy-changing game on tap. But the best part about this game taking place is that it will actually take place and we won’t have to watch anymore storylines get squeezed out of it the way NBC kept reaching for new ideas for post-Michael Scott episodes of The Office.

Four years ago on the Friday before Super Bowl XLIV, I wrote the following:

This Sunday should be about Peyton Manning joining an elite group of quarterbacks and adding to his case as the best to ever play the game. It should be about Bill Polian justifying the benching of his starters so we don’t have to hear about how it backfired all offseason. It should be about the Colts taking over for the Patriots as the team and face of the NFL.

Instead of any of those things happening, the Colts lost, lost me my Colts -5 pick, gave Jeremy Shockey a Super Bowl ring and made everyone forget that Peyton Manning had gotten over the Super Bowl hump three years prior the way that people around here forget that A-Rod single-handedly won the Yankees the 2009 World Series. Now Peyton is being given another chance to get back to the Super Bowl and get that elusive second ring that many believe would put him on top of all all-time quarterback debates.

There is so much at stake for the legacies of Peyton Manning and Tom Brady that it’s hard to decide who has more to win or lose with a win or loss (though it won’t matter for anyone if the Seahawks or 49ers win the Super Bowl). When I try to sort out the history involved with this matchup and if either of the two go on to win at MetLife in two weeks, I feel like I’m filling out a W-4, except in this case I can’t call my mom to ask if I should be putting a “0,” “1,” or “2” in the designated space.

Peyton Manning is playing in his third AFC Championship Game (all against the Patriots) and needs to win this week and again in two weeks if he really wants to be in or lead the Best Quarterback Ever conversation, which I’m pretty sure is the only thing he cares about in his life. If he wins this weekend, he will be one win away from returning to the Super Bowl after two seasons removed from potential career-ending neck injuries, and he will be one win away from winning his second Super Bowl that Pierre Garcon dropped for him four years ago.

Tom Brady is playing in his eighth AFC Championship Game in 12 years and is still searching for Super Bowl No. 4 thanks to Eli Manning. But if he wins on Sunday, it will be his sixth AFC title and he will have been the starting quarterback for the Patriots in the Super Bowl at age 24 and also at age 36, which seems like the most amazing and ridiculous TB12 fact.

Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady has been about the Best Regular-Season Quarterback Ever vs. The Winningest Postseason Quarterback Ever, which has seemed appropriate for a guy that seems to be all about personal stats and records and another guy who only cares about the final score. One of them has to win on Sunday and then one of them will be one win away from becoming The Best Ever. Five points seems like too many to give with these two.

San Francisco +3.5 over SEATTLE
The No. 4 and No. 8 teams from My Super Bowl XLVIII Dilemma. On a neutral field, I would have to think the line for this game would be 0 or at most it would be Seattle -0.5 since they are being given that extra half point for being home in a Championship Game despite playing an evenly-matched divisional rival. The line is right where it should be and right where the 49ers should want it to be.

In the Colin Kaepernick era, the 49ers have played in Seattle twice and have lost both games. They lost 29-3 in Week 2 this year and they lost 42-13 in Week 16 last year. The difference in the 2013 game was Kaepernick’s three interceptions, the 49ers’ five turnovers (to the Seahawks’ one) and Marshawn Lynch’s 98 rushing yards along with his two rushing touchdowns and one receiving touchdown. The difference in the 2012 game was Russell Wilson’s four touchdown passes and Lynch’s 111 rushing yards along with a rushing and receiving touchdown. The 49ers have turned into a different team for their trips to CenturyLink Field, but this postseason, the 49ers have turned into a different altogether.

In my Wild-Card Weekend Picks, I said:

Usually every team has at least one letdown game during the year (and in the case of the 2007 Patriots, it comes in the Super Bowl … yes, I had to) and for the 49ers, you would have to say it came in their 27-7 Week 3 loss to the Colts since their 29-3 Week 2 loss to the Seahawks happened in Seattle. But since Week 3, the 49ers have been as good and consistent as any team in the league.

Since then, the 49ers have played their most complete football of the year, once on the road against one of the few elite quarterbacks in the game in a brutal place for road teams to play and again on the road against the best front seven in the game against a 2-seed coming off a week of rest.

The Seahawks were able to hold off the Saints (who might be the worst road team in the NFL, and certainly have the biggest contrast in play between the Superdome and the road) last week, but didn’t look great doing so after having embarrassed the Saints in Seattle in Week 13.

Everyone seems to be riding the Seahawks here because they’re home and because of the 12th Man and because of the way they handled the 49ers in Seattle this year and last. And everyone seems to be penciling in the Seahawks for New York City the way they were prior to their Week 16 home loss to the Cardinals. But the 49ers aren’t the Cardinals. They’re better. And right now they’re better than they have been all year.

Last week: 2-2-0
Regular Season: 117-136-10

Blogs • NFL

Jan 3, 2014

My Super Bowl XLVIII Dilemma

The New York Football Giants aren’t going to win Super Bowl XLVIII, so it’s time figure out who it makes sense to root for and against this NFL postseason.

Someone will win Super Bowl XLVIII, but it won’t be the Giants.

With the Giants officially on Day 5 of the offseason (I say “officially” because you could make the case that some of them have been in offseason mode for weeks and some never even left it for the regular season) it’s the eve of the NFL playoffs and Wild-Card Weekend. Since the New York Football Giants aren’t going to the playoffs for the fourth time in five years and therefore won’t be going to The Dance at their own home on Feb. 2, I decided to dust off an idea I had for a column three years ago when I ranked the 12 playoff teams in order from which team I would most like to see win Super Bowl XLVIII to which team I don’t want to see win at all. Here it is:

1. Bengals
What is there not to like about the Bengals? Or should I say, what is there to not like about the Bengals? Unless you really hate gingers and therefore Andy Dalton or want to see the Bengals playoff win drought endure another year, there’s no reason to care if the Bengals win it all.

2. Colts
Out of the entire 2012 Quarterback Breakout Class, it’s possible that Andrew Luck has received the least amount of hype and attention for the player who was drafted first overall, had the highest expectations and career projection coming out of college and was being asked to take over a franchise from Peyton Manning. Luck hasn’t disappointed with back-to-back playoff appearances in his first two years, which were supposed to be rebuilding years in Indianapolis and hasn’t done anything in the spotlight to draw negative attention (at least since becoming a Colt since there was that whole private security detail that he employed on campus at Stanford).

A Colts Super Bowl win means a Chuck Pagano Super Bowl win. It also means a Jim Irsay Super Bowl win and what’s better than having a loudmouth owner who called out (and he had a point with what he said) the Peyton Manning Colts for not winning multiple Super Bowls?

3. Broncos
Three years ago I had the Peyton Manning Colts ranked first, but things have changed. I wouldn’t mind if Peyton got his second ring, but coming in the same year in which his brother threw a league-leading 27 interceptions, as a Giants fan it wouldn’t be the best situation.

If Pierre Garcon didn’t drop a pass that would have broken open Super Bowl XLIV or the Colts weren’t taken by surprise by an onside kick or if Peyton Manning himself didn’t throw a devastating pick-six then Peyton would already have his second ring, would be 2-0 in Super Bowls and considered the greatest ever. Instead he’s just the greatest regular-season quarterback ever not the greatest quarterback ever. I wouldn’t mind if that changed this February, I just wish it wouldn’t have to come in a year when Eli wasn’t so awful.

4. 49ers
The 49ers destroyed my 10-to-1 Championship Games parlay last season when they completed a 17-point comeback against the Falcons and won the NFC. I’m still upset about that when it comes to the 49ers, but nothing else.

5. Panthers
I’m still mad at the Panthers for their Super Bowl XXXVIII loss to the Patriots that gave the Patriots their second Super Bowl in three years. And I’m still mad at the Panthers, well mainly just Jake Delhomme, for destroying that divisional round game against the Cardinals in 2008 with five interceptions, costing me the Panthers -10 pick. But it’s 2013 and the Panthers’ Super Bowl loss to the Patriots was a decade ago (and if the Patriots don’t win Super Bowl XLVIII we will enter 2014 with it being a decade since their last championship despite many acting as though they won it as recently as last February) and Jake Delhomme is no longer a Panther or an NFL quarterback. And wouldn’t you be excited to watch the Panthers’ Super Bowl XLVIII DVD with the story about how Ron Rivera went from as close to being fired as you can be to leading the 1-2 Panthers to a championship?

6. Chiefs
If the Chiefs win the Super Bowl then that means the Eagles didn’t win the Super Bowl and it means Andy Reid has won a Super Bowl and the Philadelphia Eagles organization still hasn’t and that means chaos for the city of Philadelphia and Eagles fans. But if the Chiefs win the Super Bowl it means that Alex Smith was the quarterback who led them there and I’m not sure I want anything to do with a sport in which Alex Smith is a winner and possibly Super Bowl MVP.

7. Saints
Jeremy Shockey isn’t there to win another Super Bowl, so the Saints have moved up from their No. 8 spot in 2010. And without Shockey there, aside from Sean Payton wearing a visor, I have nothing against the Saints except for how they screwed me in the final minute against the Patriots and how they screwed me again against the Jets. The only reason I don’t want the Saints to win the Super Bowl is because everything I have come to believe about them and written about them and how they are a different team outside the Superdome will all be meaningless. And that’s because if the Saints win the Super Bowl, they will have won four road games and four outdoor games and that’s a scientific impossibility.

8. Seahawks
In a world where college coaches will do anything and I mean anything to get a better job, Pete Carroll is the poster boy for how to get ahead after he left USC with a two-year bowl ban and the elimination of 30 football scholarships for another shot at the NFL. Back in 2010, I didn’t care if the Seahawks won the Super Bowl (despite those things) and had them ranked third, but they aren’t entering the playoffs as a 7-9 division winner looking to make a mockery of the NFL’s postseason format, so that’s why they have fallen.

9. Packers
Here’s what I wrote about the Packers in my Week 15 Picks:

Since Aaron Rodgers has become the Packers starting quarterback, here’s how their seasons have finished:

2008: Missed playoffs
2009: Lost in Wild-Card round
2010: Won Super Bowl
2011: Lost in divisional round (first game)
2012: Lost in divisional round after beating Joe Webb and the Vikings in the Wild-Card round

So in the last five years with Rodgers as the starter, the Packers have won five playoff games with four of them coming in the same year. And if the “Miracle at the Meadowlands” doesn’t happen, the Packers don’t even make the playoffs in 2010 let alone win the Super Bowl.

I wrote all that because I was trying to show that Aaron Rodgers isn’t worthy of the “Best Player in the League” title he has seemingly been given in a league that boasts maybe the best two quarterbacks in the history of the game and the most dominant running back since Barry Sanders. And after two months without him playing, all it took was one season-saving 48-yard touchdown pass for everyone to push Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Adrian Peterson and others like Drew Brees and LeSean McCoy aside for the Aaron Rodgers Is The Best campaign to return to form.

10. Chargers
In the same season in which Eli Manning threw 27 interceptions and lost to Philip Rivers and the Giants went 7-9 and missed the playoffs, it would be very bad if Rivers and the Chargers then went on to win the Super Bowl. I want the 2013 Giants season to be gone and forgotten and right now that process has started, but if the team Eli Manning said he wouldn’t play for and the quarterback the Giants would have possibly then had win the Super Bowl, Eli Manning and especially 2013 Eli Manning will be at the forefront of Super Bowl storylines for the next month.

11. Patriots
I once wrote how a Red Sox-Mets World Series would be the worst possible championship scenario for me and I’m thankful that I was only a month old when that scenario was created in 1986. My last two teams present the second-worst possible championship scenario for me.

Nothing has changed for me and my feelings for the Patriots over the last three years and because of that, here is what I wrote about them then:

There is no way I want the Patriots to win the Super Bowl. None at all. I would rather walk across the George Washington Bridge naked, during rush hour, while it’s freezing rain than see the Patriots win.

However, a Patriots’ championship would put a serious damper on the possibility of adding more chapters to The Last Night of the Patriots Dynasty book that I plan to write with Mike Hurley.

12. Eagles
This is my nightmare! Well, it’s just one of my nightmares. My real nightmare happened in October and October 2007 and October 2004. My hatred for the Eagles is so strong that last week I found myself rooting for the Cowboys in the winner-take-all Week 17 game and actually felt a little depressed after Kyle Orton ended the game with a Tony Romo-esque interception. That’s what the Eagles can do to me. They can make me not only root for the nearly-equally-hated Cowboys, but also have a Cowboys loss negatively change my mood when I should be happy and celebrating Jerry Jones’ Dallas disaster going another year without a Super Bowl.

If Philadelphia trades Cliff Lee to the Yankees between now and Super Bowl XLVIII I’m willing to at least think about changing their spot. But without The One That Got Away holding a Yankee Stadium press conference between now and Feb. 2, I want to hear anything but “Fly, Eagles Fly.”

Blogs • Giants

Jan 2, 2014

NFL Wild-Card Weekend Picks

The regular season is over and that means the Giants’ season is over, but it also means the postseason is here and so are the postseason picks.

While this past Monday served as Black Monday for many head coaches around the league, it held a different meaning for New York Football Giants fans like myself. This past Monday was a reminder that the Giants won’t be playing this weekend (even if didn’t matter if they were playing for the last five weekends) and they won’t be playing again until next September. If you were to get pregnant or get someone pregnant today, there’s a chance your baby would be born (a little premature) by the time the Giants play their next real game. The Monday following Week 17 has now meant nothing for the Giants in four of the last five seasons.

The only news to come from the Giants since their season ended with a win over the Redskins (a game that was played in such miserable weather conditions that any fan who attended the game needs to seriously reevaluate their life and priorities and think about doing something constructive on Sundays rather than watching a 6-9 team face a 3-12 team in a monsoon) is that Eli Manning will likely get an extension despite his historically bad season. (If only all jobs could be handled this way.) For the Giants and their fans, January will once again be a depressing month with no non-monetary-related rooting interest in the playoffs. The only positive to come out of the worst Giants season in a decade is the reported retirement of offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride. Aside from that, there’s no point in looking back at the disastrous season that started 0-6, but could have been saved in Week 12 against the Cowboys.

The holidays are over and it’s January, which begins the two-month winter gauntlet (though this year is a little less gauntlet-ish thanks to Winter Olympics hockey) before spring training and March Madness carry us into Opening Day. And what better way to kick January off than with a New York City blizzard that’s supposed to start on Thursday night? How about a high temperature on Friday of 17 degrees and a low of 4 degrees? Yes, it’s officially winter and that means the NFL postseason is here and so are the NFL Playoff Picks.

INDIANAPOLIS -2 over Kansas City
Let me start this by saying that the first thing I did when the lines came out for Wild-Card Weekend was to see what a parlay with the four underdogs (Chiefs, Saints, Chargers and Packers) is worth and it’s 29-to-1 odds. Unfortunately, I’m only a believer in one of the four underdogs this weekend.

The Chiefs have had an odd calendar year, considering they finished 2-14 in 2012, which was good enough for worst in the NFL and landed them the No. 1 pick. Then they hired Andy Reid, traded for Alex Smith, started the season 9-0 and finished the season 11-5. When it comes to looking at the 2013 Chiefs, they were essentially two teams: the Pre-Bye Chiefs and Post-Bye Chiefs.

The Pre-Bye Chiefs were 9-0 and never allowed more than 17 points in game and allowed a total of 111 points (an average of 12.3 per game). The Post-Bye Chiefs were 2-5, only beating the Redskins and Raiders, and allowed 194 points (an average of 27.7 per game). The Chiefs’ pre-bye success was presumably built by their defense, but in reality, it was built by their schedule that included home games against the Cowboys, Giants, Raiders, Texans and Browns and road games against the Jaguars, Michael Vick Eagles, Titans and Bills. The Chiefs went 1-5 against playoff teams this season and their only win came in Week 3 against the Michael Vick Eagles in a game in which the Eagles had five turnovers.

When these two teams meet on Saturday, it will only have been 13 days since the Colts ran the Chiefs out of Arrowhead with a 23-7 win thanks to four Chiefs turnovers. But it’s not only because of this recent result or how shaky the Post-Bye Chiefs have been that I’m taking the Colts here. It’s also because of how Andy Reid chose to play Week 17 against the Chargers.

Sure, the JV Chiefs nearly beat the This-Game-Means-Everything Chargers in San Diego, but Reid did that game, the game of football as a whole, the playoff picture and his own team a disservice by playing the “B” team and not trying to do everything he could to win the game and eliminate the Chargers. The Chiefs earned the right to play (or not play) their Week 17 game however they chose, but history tells us that using Week 17 as a bye week and taking your foot off the gas entering January usually backfires.

New Orleans +2.5 over PHILADELPHIA
Here is what I said about the Saints in my Week 16 Picks:

If this game were at the Superdome, I would be all about the Saints like always. But on the road, I’m going against them … like always.

Here is what I said about the Saints in my Week 15 Picks:

Inside the Superdome, the Saints are the best team in the NFL. Outside the Superdome, the Saints are one of the 10 worst teams in the league and maybe even worse than that.

Here is what I said about the Saints in my Week 14 Picks:

The Saints’ last home loss with Sean Payton as head coach came in Week 17 in 2010 when they had nothing to play for. Including the playoffs, the Saints have won their last 15 home games since that loss and here are their margins of victory going back from Week 4 in 2013 to Week 2 in 2011 with Payton as head coach: 21, 24, 6, 17, 28, 29, 14, 25, 11, 55, 7, 17, 18, 32 and 3.

Here is what I said about the Saints in my Week 13 Picks:

It’s the battle for home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs with the current 1-seed playing the current 2-seed. If this game were in the Superdome, there’s no doubt the Saints would win. It’s actually a guarantee they would win. But like always, when you take the Saints out of the Superdome they aren’t the Saints.

Here is what I said about the Saints in my Week 12 Picks:

It’s never a good idea to trust the Saints to cover outside of the Superdome.

I could keep going, but I think the pattern is pretty easy to pick up. The Superdome Saints were 8-0 this year with an average win of 34.0-15.6. The Outside-the-Superdome Saints were 3-5 with an average loss of 22.4-17.8.

Absolutely everything about this game says, “Don’t pick the Saints, Neil! Don’t pick the effing Saints, Neil!” in the same voice that Eli uses to yell his feelings to Matthew about sleeping with Danielle in The Girl Next Door. But guess what: I’m not listening to stats and logic and everything I have written about the Saints in 2013 and I’m not listening to Eli.

There are two teams I desperately don’t want to see win the Super Bowl: the Patriots and Eagles. And since I’m driving the anti-Eagles bandwagon, I’m going to let my fandom interfere with math and science and the Saints’ recent postseason history and pick solely against the Eagles because they’re the Eagles.

CINCINNATI -7 over San Diego
The worst game of Wild-Card Weekend features the team that has screwed with me more this year than any other team: Ladies and gentlemen, the Cincinnati Bengals! Like the Saints, the Bengals can be viewed as two teams: the Cincinnati Bengals and the Outside Cincinnati Bengals.

The Cincinnati Bengals went 8-0 this year with an average win of 31.9-16.8. The Outside Cincinnati Bengals went 3-5 with an average loss of 21.4-19.4. At home, the Bengals beat three playoff teams in the Packers, Patriots and Colts. On the road, they lost to the Bears, Browns, Dolphins, Ravens and Steelers and needed overtime to beat the Bills. (As you can tell, none of those teams are still playing.) But what the Outside Cincinnati Bengals did doesn’t matter this week and won’t come into play until next weekend when they will either travel to Denver or New England. And the Bengals will still be playing next weekend because they get to face the We-Are-Kind-Of-Hot-Entering-The-Playoffs-But-Also-Backed-Into-The-Playoffs Chargers.

Yes, the Chargers won four straight and five of six to finish the season, but they also needed Ryan Succop to miss a 41-yard field goal to beat the Chiefs’ JV team in a home game with their season on the line. If not for that missed field goal with four seconds left, the Pittsburgh Steelers would be in the playoffs, and the Chargers’ season would have ended at the hands of quarterback Chase Daniel, who entered the Week 17 game with eight career passing attempts. The Chargers lost 17-10 at home to the Bengals just five weeks ago in Week 13. And when you’re losing to the Outside Cincinnati Bengals, things aren’t going to be easier against the Cincinnati Bengals.

The Bengals’ last playoff win came during the 1990 season on Jan. 6, 1991. This Sunday, one day shy of 23 years, the drought will be over.

San Francisco -3 over GREEN BAY
The forecast calls for a high of 0 degrees and a low of -18 degrees on Sunday in Green Bay. Knowing that, I think Tom Coughlin might be content with the way the Giants’ season ended since they won’t be playing in Lambeau Field this January, which is probably for the best given his skin’s reaction to the Wisconsin winter in January 2008 and January 2012.

It’s been a while since the Aaron Rodgers Packers were home underdogs and when the two teams met let year in the divisional round in San Francisco, the 49ers were only 3-point favorites at home.

The Packers were 5-2 before Aaron Rodgers broke his collarbone and during his absence they needed two one-point wins (Week 14 over Atlanta and Week 15 over Dallas) to be put in a winner-take-all Week 17 game in Chicago. And in that game last week, the Packers had a fourth-and-8 for their season on the Bears’ 48-yard line in the final minutes that resulted in a 48-yard touchdown pass from first-game-back Aaron Rodgers to first-game-back Randall Cobb. What I’m trying to say is the Packers hit an in the words of Ilya Bryzgalov “humongous big” parlay to reach the playoffs and possibly even more “humongous big” than the parlay they hit in 2010 to reach the playoffs (thanks in large part to the “Miracle at the Meadowlands”) before winning the Super Bowl. And thanks to the NFL’s imperfect playoff format, at 8-7-1, they get to host a 12-4 team.

The 49ers’ four losses this season all came against worthy opponents. They lost in Seattle, where every team not from Arizona loses. They lost to the Colts, who I called the weirdest team in the NFL since they knocked off not only the 49ers, but also the Seahawks and Broncos this season, while losing to the Dolphins, Chargers and Rams. Following their bye, they lost to a top-ranked Panthers defense by one point (10-9). And they lost 23-20 to the Saints in New Orleans, which included a very controversial penalty, and since you know my feelings on the Superdome Saints, any loss under seven points in New Orleans is basically a win for the road team.

Usually every team has at least one letdown game during the year (and in the case of the 2007 Patriots, it comes in the Super Bowl … yes, I had to) and for the 49ers, you would have to say it came in their 27-7 Week 3 loss to the Colts since their 29-3 Week 2 loss to the Seahawks happened in Seattle. But since Week 3, the 49ers have been as good and consistent as any team in the league.

Last week: 10-6-0
Regular Season: 114-132-9