Keefe To The City

Dec 4, 2013

The Henrik Lundqvist Extension

Glen Sather made the one move he’s absolutely had to make as Rangers general manager: extend Henrik Lundqvist.

Here were my reactions in order after hearing Alain Vigneault was going to bench Henrik Lundqvist in favor of Cam Talbot.

1. (Laughter)

2. What?

3. Is this real life?

4. Are you effing nuts, AV?

Henrik Lundqvist has been the sole reason for any Rangers success in the post-lockout era with maybe the exception of his rookie season in 2005-06. Then again, the Rangers’ success that season was going to be defined by just making the playoffs for the first time in forever (or nine years) and that’s why their five-game, first-round loss to the Devils wasn’t viewed as much of a disappointment. The face of the franchise, the backbone of the organization and the one man responsible for the Rangers’ postseason drought not running into its 17th year was going to be benched for a 26-year-old rookie with seven career starts? Oh …

Benching Lundqvist wasn’t going to go over well with Lundqvist (even if he pretended like he was fine with the decision) and it wasn’t going to go over well with a fan base wondering why a first-year Rangers head coach would decide to shake things up like Coach Orion taking over for Gordon Bombay. The only way for the controversy to end would be if the Rangers were to lose when Talbot started in place of Lundqvist. So in order for everything to be righted, the Rangers would need to give up two valuable points. And that’s what happened.

But let’s live in an “if” world for a minute. What if the Rangers had won against the Jets on Monday night? Talbot would have to start in Buffalo on Thursday after winning back-to-back games as the now No. 1 goalie, which would then turn a seemingly harmless one-game break for Lundqvist in an Olympic-condensed season into a full-blown controversy. A win over the Jets would have forced the Vigneault-created crisis to take on a life of its own. What would be made of AV’s inability to manage goalies after the Roberto Luongo-Cory Schneider disaster in Vancouver? What would become of Lundqvist if Talbot were to win again in Buffalo on Thursday and consistently win? What would happen with the relationship of the new head coach and the face of the franchise? What would this do for Lundqvist’s impending free agency? Most importantly, what would become of Lundqvist’s contract negotiations and extension?

Luckily, none of that matters now and not because the Rangers lost to the Jets in their quest to never separate themselves more than one game over the .500 mark. It doesn’t matter now because Glen Sather did the one general managerial he absolutely had to do since becoming Rangers general manager in 2000: extend Henrik Lundqvist.

Lundqvist will be a Ranger next year. After signing a seven-year extension, he will be a Ranger for the next seven years. He will be a Ranger for his entire career (well, unless he is looking for some money when he’s 38 and the Rangers aren’t willing to give it to him, but that’s something we can worry about for the 2020-21 season).

A lot of people are unhappy with the years and dollars committed to the 31-year-old and the belief of paying him for what he has done over the last seven years and not what he will do over the next seven years. But it was going to take the Rangers giving Lundqvist a seventh year and it was going to take at least $8 million per season to keep him in New York with the free-agent market waiting and teams with better futures and more realistic Cup-winning chances ready to break the bank. So if you wanted Lundqvist to retire as a Ranger and one day watch him raise his Number 30 in MSG then that means you were fine with what it wound up costing. And if you wanted Lundqvist to stay, but at a lesser price, then you never really wanted him to stay or at least were fine with him leaving.

Sure, there’s a very good chance and pretty much a certainty that the 37- and 38-year-old Lundqvist won’t be posting the 1.97 GAA that the 29-year-old Lundqvist did or the 11 shutouts that the 28-year-old Lundqvist did. But right now this Rangers team (and by “this Rangers team” I mean the 2014-15, 2016-17, and so on teams because he is already on and under contract with the current Rangers team) needs Lundqvist. They can’t worry about what his level of play will be like in 2019-20 and 2020-21. This June it will be 20 years since the Rangers won the Stanley Cup and without Lundqvist the chances of that drought ending in the near future weren’t going to improve. In the spirit of Christmas, let’s borrow the Ghost of Rangers past to show how every post-Cup Rangers season has ended.

1994-95: Lost second round
1995-96: Lost second round
1996-97: Lost conference finals
1997-98: Missed playoffs
1998-99: Missed playoffs
1999-00: Missed playoffs
2000-01: Missed playoffs
2001-02: Missed playoffs
2002-03: Missed playoffs
2003-04: Missed playoffs
2005-06: Lost first round
2006-07: Lost second round
2007-08: Lost second round
2008-09: Lost first round
2009-10: Missed playoffs
2010-11: Lost first round
2011-12: Lost conference finals
2012-13: Lost second round

Still worried about and want to complain about having a 36-, 37- and 38-year-old Lundqvist? Does anyone really want to complain about having the best goalie in the world in 2014-15 because of what he might be in five-plus years?

The biggest knock on Lundqvist during his career has been his “inability” to lead the Rangers to the Cup or even the Stanley Cup Final, which is a comical knock since one person isn’t going to lead any team to the Cup by single-handedly winning four seven-game series against only the best teams in the league. Once the 83rd game of the season starts everyone seems to forget that Lundqvist is actually the one mostly responsible for getting the Rangers to that 83rd game and the “What have you done for me lately?” crowd takes over. The same crowd that booed Marian Gaborik because he didn’t want to use 40-goal scoring body as a shot-blocking pylon for John Tortorella and muck it up in the corners like a fourth-line grinder. The same crowd that jumps on their seat and causes chaos in the aisles over free T-shirts during TV timeouts. But here’s something that crowd probably doesn’t know or doesn’t care enough to know.

The Rangers have reached the postseason in four of the last five years. In that time, they are 19-25 in the playoffs, which means Lundqvist is 19-25 in the playoffs over that time. In those 25 playoff losses, the Rangers have scored 36 goals or 1.44 goals per game. Here is the breakdown by goals scored in the losses and how many times they scored each amount of goals:

0 goals: 5
1 goal: 9
2 goals: 8
3 goals: 3
4 or more goals: 0

That’s 14 playoff losses when the Rangers couldn’t score more than one goal and 22 when they couldn’t score more than two.

No, Lundqvist’s career will never be complete without winning it all. He knows that. That’s why the thought of going to the open market and a better place caused these negotiations to drag on through the first two-plus months of the season. He knows that when it comes time to raise his Number 30 that if it he must do so without his name on the Cup, it will as empty as buying a brand new house, but being unable to furnish it.

The Rangers and their fans need new memories. The 1993-94 season was two decades ago and the team, the Garden and the MSG Network have exhausted every possible perspective to recapture and remember the Cup run. The first step in trying to create those memories has always been locking up Henrik Lundqvist.

Podcasts • Rangers

Dec 4, 2013

Podcast: Kevin DeLury

Kevin DeLury of The New York Rangers Blog joins me to talk about the decision to bench Henrik Lundqvist and whether or not the Rangers are destined to lose in the first or second round of the playoffs again.

The Rangers’ goalie controversy is over. After Alain Vigneault decided it would be a good idea to bench the face of the franchise and the sole reason for any Rangers success in the post-lockout era in favor of a rookie goaltender with seven career starts under his belt, everything is back to normal. And the only reason everything is back to normal is because that rookie goaltender allowed four goals in his temporary role as the No. 1 and the Rangers lost.

Kevin DeLury of The New York Rangers Blog joined me to talk about Vigneault’s decision to bench Henrik Lundqvist in favor of Cam Talbot along with the complicated contract negotiations for Lundqvist, the job Vigneault has done through the first two months as head coach and whether or not the Rangers are destined to lose in the first or second round of the playoffs again.

Blogs • Giants • NFL

Nov 28, 2013

NFL Week 13 Picks

After another devastating weeks of picks, a .500 season is a pipe dream at this point.

It’s Week 13 and after 12 weeks of learning about each of the league’s 32 teams, you start to feel confident, well somewhat confident, when making picks. After going 34-54-4 through the first six weeks of the season, I went 36-31-3 over the next five weeks, only to lay an A.J. Burnett-like egg in Week 12 with a 4-10-0 week. But with five weeks left before the playoff picks start, .500 seems like a pipe dream at this point.

It’s a pipe dream because we’re now at the point in the season where more teams are eliminated from contention and on the brink of mathematical elimination and the motivation of the postseason and the Super Bowl is no longer possible. Instead coaching staffs, some who are coaching for their livelihoods, are forced to manufacture artificial motivation, which is hard to do in a sport where you’re asking players to sacrifice their own livelihoods on every play in a lost season. And that’s why after inching so close back toward the .500 mark, it’s going to be hard and likely impossible to get there when you don’t know what to expect from teams you thought you have figured out over the first 12 weeks of the season.

Week 13! Let’s go!

(Home teams in caps)

DETROIT -6.5 over Green Bay
Thursday is when I feel the best with my picks. With an 8-3 record on Thursday Night football this season, I get three games to try to once again turn my season around.

The Lions have lost 15 of their last 16 games against the Packers, which doesn’t bode well for picking a team to not only win but cover 6.5. But none of those games came across a recycled Matt Flynn, who couldn’t start in Oakland or Buffalo and needed Aaron Rodgers and Seneca Wallace to both get hurt for another chance in Green Bay.

DALLAS -9.5 over Oakland
It pains me that the NFC East will be represented by either Dallas or Philadelphia either and it pains me even more that on Thanksgiving Day I will have to watch the Cowboys improve to 7-5 while everyone gets ready to write the “woe is Tony Romo’s career” stories. The only good thing is that I will get the “Tony Romo will never win” stories in a little over a month.

Pittsburgh +3 over BALTIMORE
When these two teams met in Week 7 I said:

Let’s go back to when Joe Flacco became the starting quarterback of the Ravens in 2008 and see how these two-game season series have gone.

In 2012, the Ravens won 13-10 and the Steelers won 23-20. In 2011, the Ravens won 35-7 and 23-20. In 2010, the Ravens won 17-14 and the Steelers won 13-10. In 2009, the Ravens won 20-17 in overtime and the Steelers won 23-20. In 2008, the Steelers won 23-20 in overtime and 13-9.

That’s 10 games with eight of them being decided by three points, one being decided by four points and one being decided by 28 (the Steelers had seven turnovers, yes seven turnovers, in that loss). Forget picking the Ravens to cover, is there a prop bet that this game will be won by exactly three points?

The Steelers won that Week 7 game 19-16. That means nine of the 11 games have been decided by three points.

This game will be decided by three points. And when you know that, how can you not take the points?

INDIANAPOLIS -4.5 over Tennessee
I will never figure out the 2013 Indianapolis Colts. Their wins have been against Oakland, San Francisco, Jacksonville, Seattle, Denver, Houston and Tennessee. There losses have been against Miami, San Diego, St. Louis and Arizona. They have wins against arguably the best three teams in the NFL and losses to three teams with losing records. In November, they went 2-2, beating the Texans and Titans both by three points and losing to the Rams by 30 and the Cardinals by 29. I don’t believe in the Colts, but I believe in Andrew Luck more than Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Jacksonville +7 over CLEVELAND
There it is! It’s that Game of the Week …

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Jaguars fan or a Browns fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

Also, Brandon Weeden is starting.

CAROLINA -7 over Tampa Bay
Everyone is riding high on the Buccaneers right now and how Greg Schiano turned the team around and is punching his ticket to another season and another chance in Tampa Bay despite everything that went wrong (and everything went wrong) in the first two months of the season. If the Panthers win this week and the Saints lose in Seattle (and the Saint are going to lose in Seattle) then the two teams will be tied at 9-3 atop the NFC South. That means the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ image reconstruction will be stopped in Carolina.

MINNESOTA 0 over Chicago
In Chicago, with Jay Cutler, the Bears needed a last-minute touchdown to beat the Vikings 31-30 in Week 2. Give me the Vikings.

Arizona +3 over PHILADELPHIA
If the Giants season is over then I don’t want the road to the division title to be easy for either the Eagles or the Cowboys. The Eagles still have the Arizona (7-4), Detroit (7-5), Chicago with Cutler (6-5) and Dallas (7-5) remaining on their schedule. Their only easy opponent is Minneosta in Week 15, but that game is at Minnesota. Maybe the Giants can get back into it? What? I’m just kidding.

Miami +2 over NEW YORK JETS
The 5-6 gongshow that has been built in the AFC is an absolute joke, but because every mediocre team has a chance to make the playoffs as the 6-seed in the AFC, the Jets and Dolphins are still in it. Normally I would take the home team in a divisional matchup giving less than three points, but with Mark Sanchez saying he will be a Jet next year and back and better than ever, who isn’t pulling for a Jets collapse followed by yet another Jets quarterback debacle next season?

New England -9 over HOUSTON
The Texans are a disaster. They were 2-0 after their Week 2 win over the Titans on Sept. 15, but since then they are have lost nine straight games and six of the nine games have been decided by less than a touchdown. I thought that after Case Keenum took over as the starting quarterback and the Texans blew that big lead on Sunday Night Football in Week 9 that they could turn their season around or at least finishing strong. But since then they have lost three more games. Their season is long gone.

BUFFALO -3.5 over Atlanta
Yes, I’m still picking against the Falcons for costing me the 10-to-1 Championship Weekend parlay last season. And I plan on picking against them for that for a long time.

St. Louis +9 over SAN FRANCISCO
After Colin Kaepernick threw for 412 yards in the 49ers’ Week 1 win over Green Bay, I thought we were looking at the beginning of the next dynasty with the 49ers’ progression after their 2011 NFC Championship Game loss then their 2012 Super Bowl loss. But since then Kaepernick has only passed for 200-plus yards in two of the other 10 games and the 49ers at 7-4 are certainly one of the top tier teams in the league, but not what I expected them to be. I thought they easily be the best team in the NFC, but they aren’t. The best team in the NFC beat the 49ers by 26 points. If anything, the 49ers are the Colts of the NFC.

KANSAS CITY +5.5 over Denver
The knock on the Chiefs prior to the last Chiefs-Broncos meeting two weeks ago was that they could play great defense, but Alex Smith couldn’t take over a game when needed (like he he hasn’t been able to do in his entire career) and the only way for the Chiefs to win would be through their defense. The defense held Denver to 27 points on the road, but Smith wasn’t able to carry the team like everyone predicted. That loss must have rattled the Chiefs since the following week they scored a season-high 38 points against the Chargers, but allowed a season-high 41, against which was 14 more than they had previously allowed all season. The Broncos proved in Foxboro and also in Indianapolis that they are a different team on the road when the opponent is good and even with the Chiefs’ noticeable flaws, the Broncos as 5.5-point favorites is too much.

SAN DIEGO -1 over Cincinnati
Who’s that still alive in the playoff hunt at 5-6? Why its another AFC team! Yes, the Chargers, who started the year 2-3 and then endured a three-game losing streak in November, are still in the playoff picture. And the good news for the Chargers is that four of their five remaining games are at home where they have beaten the Cowboys and Colts and suffered an eight-point loss the Broncos, which is almost a victory. Meanwhile, the Bengals can’t be trusted to put away the AFC North and the Bengals certainly can’t be trusted on the road.

WASHINGTON +2 over New York Giants
This is actually one of those …

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Giants fan or a Redskins fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

Yes, this is one of rhose games, but because it’s Sunday Night Football and everyone’s last chance of the day to wager on a game, a lot of non-Giants and non-Redskins fans will be betting on it.

It’s never easy picking against your own team especially when playing against a division rival who’s 3-8. But the Giants are 4-7 and virtually the same team as the Redskins. Neither team has anything to play for that point. The Giants aren’t making the playoffs. The team isn’t even talking about the possibility of making the playoffs. So what is the Giants’ motivation at this point? A winning season? Respectability? This team has suffered several second-half collapses during the Tom Coughlin era with their motivation being the playoffs. So now you’re asking me to believe that they are going to start winning games with the motivation being something other than playing for a championship? No thanks.

SEATTLE -5.5 over New Orleans
It’s the battle for home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs with the current 1-seed playing the current 2-seed. If this game were in the Superdome, there’s no doubt the Saints would win. It’s actually a guarantee they would win. But like always, when you take the Saints out of the Superdome they aren’t the Saints. And that goes for normal road stadiums. But CenturyLink Field isn’t your normal road stadium and the worst possible place the Saints could play their most important game of the season (see: Seahawks-Saints 2010 playoff game).

Last week: 4-10-0
Season: 75-94-7

Blogs • Email Exchanges • Giants

Nov 22, 2013

The Season Comes Down To Giants-Cowboys Once Again

The Giants will play for their season on Sunday against the Cowboys and that calls for an email exchange with Dave Halprin of Blogging the Boys.

The first thing I do when the Giants’ schedule comes out is look for the Cowboys games the way I look for the Red Sox games when the Yankees’ schedule comes out. It’s an instinct. And this year when I saw that the Giants would be playing in Dallas in Week 1 I thought about all of the hype and anticipation that would be created for a rivalry game on Opening Night on Sunday Night Football, which in turn only added to the hype and anticipation. And when I saw that the Cowboys would come to MetLife in Week 12, I thought it would be the perfect time for a big 4:25 p.m. game with the division potentially on the line like the 2010 Week 10 game between the two teams in East Rutherford.

After the Giants started off the season with six straight losses and basically eliminated from the playoffs, I didn’t care about the remaining 10 games on the schedule and certainly didn’t care about the second meeting with the Cowboys on Nov. 24. But the Giants got the stars to perfectly align for them and their schedule and the results of other NFC East teams’ games and now at 4-6, they will finally play for their season on Sunday against the Cowboys.

With the Giants’ season once again coming down to needing a win at home against the Cowboys, I did an email exchange with Dave Halprin of Blogging the Boys to talk about the game, what’s happened to the Cowboys since Week 1 and whether or not Jason Garrett’s job is safe.

Keefe: The last time we talked was before the Sunday Night Football opener. The game turned into what I call the “Disaster in Dallas” after starting with an Eli Manning interception and not stopping until the Giants had turned the ball over six times in their 36-31 loss (a win for you).

Since then the Giants lost five more games and were proud owners of an 0-6 record heading into their Monday Night Football matchup with the Vikings. But then things changed.

Over the next five weeks, they won that game on Monday Night Football against Josh Freeman, beat Matt Bick (a combination of Matt Barkley and Michael Vick despite having lost to Nick Vick – a combination of Nick Foles and Michael Vick in Week 5), held off Tashad Pennings (a combination of Terrelle Pryor and Rashad Jennings) and got past Scott Tolzien. Everything broke right for the Giants with the Vikings quarterback-less, Vick and Foles being injured, Terrelle Pryor getting injured and Aaron Rodgers being out.

Yes, the Giants are now 4-6 and with a win against your Cowboys on Sunday they control their own destiny. But right now I’m not sure which Giants team to expect since they haven’t seen a real starting quarterback for a full game since losing to Jay Cutler and the Bears in Week 6 and maybe the team we have seen (mainly the defense) over the last four games isn’t a true indicator of who the Giants are or have become and the first six games are who they really are.

While the Giants have been fighting to get back into the race and the playoff picture, the Cowboys haven’t been able to run away with the NFC East (since if they had, we wouldn’t be having this email exchange) and why is that?

Halprin: The Cowboys have been as frustrating as ever in 2013. Handed a perfect opportunity to run away with the NFC East early this year, they bumbled and stumbled their way to a 5-5 record, allowing both the Eagles and Giants to get firmly back into the race. The Cowboys defense has been dreadful in most statistical categories except one: turnovers. If it wasn’t for that, the Cowboys would be in really bad shape. As it is, all those turnovers have helped to keep the scoring from the opposition to a slightly more manageable number.

The Cowboys hustle and scrap like crazy on defense, but they just aren’t very good. Offensively, the team has been in a slump recently. Plenty of people have come under fire for that including play-caller Bill Callahan and Tony Romo. There have been issues with both of their performances, so the question is did they get it straightened out over the bye week?

Keefe: The NFC East teams have a combined 18-23 record with a -97 point differential. Somehow despite having the division with the best all-around quarterbacks, the NFC East has transformed into what the NFC West was before the 49ers and Seahawks turned their franchises around over the last few years. In a division with Eli Manning, Tony Romo, Robert Griffin III and Michael Vick/Nick Foles it doesn’t seem fathomable that the NFC East could be the worst division in the league.

And with the emergence of Foles as the starting quarterback in Philadelphia and with the Eagles sitting atop the division at 6-5 and able to control their own destiny, do you believe they could win the division? Everyone is making it feel like the division comes down to this Giants-Cowboys game and that the winner of it will eventually on to win the division, but maybe that’s just the perception in New York? Who is the bigger obstacle for the Cowboys: the Giants or Eagles?

Halprin: I think that’s the perception in New York. Dallas realizes that it would be VERY beneficial for them to win in New York, but a loss, at least from a math point of view, doesn’t come close to eliminating the Cowboys from contention.

For a couple of weeks, Cowboys fans have been looking more at the season-ending game against the Eagles as a possible win-or-go home scenario for the NFC East. Dallas has played in two of those in the past two years in Week 17 (Giants in 2011 and Redskins in 2012), maybe it’s just destined that they will do it again this year with the Eagles.

Don’t get me wrong though, this game is huge for both teams and we know it. Dallas needs to get some confidence going again after getting blasted by the Saints and it needs to happen this week. If they lose, it’s possible it could start a chain-reaction demise in Dallas.

Keefe: Jerry Jones gave Jason Garrett his vote of confidence this week, which means absolutely nothing. How many times in sports do coaches or managers get a vote of confidence only to be fired later?

Right now, Garrett has a 26-24 career record as head coach of the Cowboys with a 5-3 finish to the 2010 season, 8-8 seasons in 2011 and 2012 and now a 5-5 record this season. Nothing says mediocrity like being two games over .500 as a head coach, especially when coaching a team with as many elite offensive players as the Cowboys have had during his tenure. And after two third-place finishes in both of his full season as Cowboys head coach and with the possibility of not winning the NFC East in this down year, is there any truth to Jones’ statement that making the playoffs won’t impact Garrett’s future? I’m not sure he comes back even if the Cowboys do make the playoffs and don’t win a playoff game.

Halprin: If the Cowboys make the playoffs he’s coming back without a doubt. You can bet the farm on that. I think for Jason Garrett to not come back in 2014 Dallas would need to go 0-6 or 1-5 over these last six game. If the team bottoms out that badly, then Jerry will likely have no choice since the fan base would be in total revolt and he would have nothing statistically to say Jason is the guy. Of course Jerry might hang on to him anyway at that point just to prove a point, but I think the pressure to fire him would be immense.

If the Cowboys don’t make the playoffs but play well enough that it doesn’t look like Jason has lost the team or anything, then he will likely come back. Jerry has a lot invested in Garrett and he really wants him to succeed. Not just for the Cowboys, but so Jerry will look smart for hiring him, designating him a head-coach-in-waiting all the way back to when he hired him as offensive coordinator. He desperately wants to give him another year, so if the bottom doesn’t fall out, then he’ll likely bring him back.

Personally I agree Garrett should come back if the team contends and doesn’t fall apart even if they don’t make the playoffs. I actually think he’s got the culture of the franchise going in the right direction, and I think he knows what he needs to do to succeed. He just hasn’t gotten there yet. I’m willing to give him more time … unless he goes 0-6 to end the season!

Keefe: Two years ago in Dallas in Week 14, the Giants trailed by 12 with five minutes and 41 seconds left before pulling off a miraculous comeback to save their season. Then three weeks later in Week 17, the Giants hosted the Cowboys for a winner-take-all game for the division. The Giants won that game 31-14, won the NFC East and ran the table in the playoffs for the second time in five seasons.

If the Giants lose this game, their season is over with seven losses, two of them against the Cowboys, a 1-3 division record and a somewhat challenging five-game schedule to finish the season. Even if the Giants win this game, they are going to need help with the Eagles currently controlling their own destiny, so if the Giants lose this game they would need even more help and really too much help to reach the postseason.

For the Cowboys, a loss wouldn’t necessarily end their season, but I’m sure Cowboys fans and the media will react as if their season is over.

How is this game being treated and viewed in Dallas and what do you expect on Sunday?

Halprin: That’s the thing, if the Cowboys lose they are still mathematically very much alive, but for Dallas it goes deeper than that. They were manhandled by the Saints, embarrassed by them, and the offense has been struggling which is supposed to be the strength of the team. They, and the fan base, have had two weeks to sit and stew about that loss while also having to watch the Eagles grab the NFC East lead by half a game. It’s been a nightmare, and we’ll be without Sean Lee for at lest a few more games.

All of this has been building for the team and the fans, and now all that energy will be released on Sunday. Either the Cowboys will win and we’ll feel right back on tack, tied with the Eagles but with a 4-0 record inside the division. All will look rosy for getting back to the playoffs. If we lose, it will be a mega-disaster. The Cowboys are falling apart, they are losing the NFC East, this team can’t recover.

Emotionally, it will be an extreme response either way. But rationally, mathematically, winning puts us in a better position, but with plenty of room to blow it. And losing would drop us a bit, but by no means would be fatal. So that’s the split for us on Sunday.

Blogs • Giants • NFL

Nov 21, 2013

NFL Week 12 Picks

My Matt Christopher “Ice Magic” theory was proved wrong in Week 11, so now it’s time to figure out how to get above .500 and stay there with my picks.

I was going to fill this space with how big the Giants-Cowboys game is this week, but I decided that a game of this importance needs a lot more than the introduction to my picks, so I saved it for Friday.

When it comes to my picks, so much for Matt Christopher and Ice Magic and Pie Pennelli since my theory about the Giants’ success controlling my picks success was destroyed in Week 11. The Giants beat the Packers 27-13, but I went 5-8-2 for my first under-.500 week since Week 6, marking the first time the Giants won and I didn’t produce an over.-500 week. There are just six weeks left (and the playoffs too, of course) to get back to .500 overall and dig myself out of the hole I put myself in starting in Week 1 with the 3-12-1 disaster to start the season.

Week 12! Let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

New Orleans -10 over ATLANTA
It’s never a good idea to trust the Saints to cover outside of the Superdome, but when their road venue is also a dome and they are playing a 2-8 team with absolutely nothing to play for as they count down the days until the end of the season, well I guess that’s pretty much the same as picking the Saints to cover in the Superdome.

DETROIT -8.5 over Tampa Bay
The Greg Schiano Buccaneers lost to the Seahawks in Seattle in overtime in Week 9 before picking up their first win of the season over the Dolphins in Week 10 and then they won again in Week 11 over the Falcons. Suddenly the Schiano firing stories have stopped and there is talk that he might be coaching his way into staying with the Buccaneers for the 2014 season. Real life? Yes.

But I’m not buying into Schiano coaching his way into staying with the Buccaneers for the 2014 season. The Bucs still play at Detroit and Carolina, home against Buffalo and San Francisco and at St. Louis and New Orleans to finish the season. There’s a real chance, actually it’s likely, the Bucs finish the season 2-14, but even if they were to get to 3-13 or 4-12, given everything the team has endured this season, that won’t be enough to save Schiano’s job.

HOUSTON -10 over Jacksonville
There it is! It’s that Game of the Week …

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Texans fan or a Jaguars fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

Minnesota +5 over GREEN BAY
Since the 2006 season, the Vikings are 1-7 at Lambeau, including the playoffs, with their last win in Green Bay coming on Nov. 1, 2009 in Week 8 when Brett Favre threw four touchdowns against his former team. If Aaron Rodgers were playing on Sunday, I would have a hard time taking the Vikings no matter how high this line would grow. But when it comes to choosing between Christian Ponder playing for nothing other than to try and not embarrass himself or Scott Tolzien playing with the pressure of keeping the Packers’ season alive, I’m going to choose Christian Ponder.

KANSAS CITY -5.5 over San Diego
I’m not sure how the Chiefs didn’t manage to knock Peyton Manning and his two sprained ankles down in the biggest game the Chiefs franchise has played since their 30-7 loss at home against the Ravens in the 2010 playoffs. It was the worst job a team has done to expose another team’s weakness in a big game since the Yankees decided to not bunt against Curt Schilling’s hanging-by-a-thread ankle tendon/sheath thing in Game 6 of the 2004 ALCS. Thanks, Joe Torre! Eighteen-year-old me appreciates that managerial job!

Carolina +4.5 over MIAMI
So how about the Footballs Gods deciding not to bring the Panthers back to reality by having the officials pick up their game-ending flag only to run off the field, stealing the Patriots’ +120 money line from many on their way through the tunnel? If you thought the Panthers hype train was adding passengers and picking up speed heading into Week 11, well it’s traveling at full capacity at a dangerously high speed now entering Week 12. I looked up tickets for the Panthers hype train on StubHub this morning and standing room only tickets were going for $485 thanks to the national attention and love the Panthers have been getting from anyone with a microphone, camera or keyboard. Not only do all of these things add up to present a textbook recipe for disaster for anyone thinking this line is low and the perfect opportunity to try and double up on the mortgage or the first-born’s college tuition, but it’s also the perfect storm for the Football Gods to show up and remind people never to get too high or too low and on a good team in the regular season. This game makes a lot of sense for the Football Gods to show up and do what I thought they would do … last week.

CLEVELAND -1 over Pittsburgh
Just when you thought the Steelers were done at 2-6, they win two games and now are one game out of the playoffs thanks to every potential AFC 6-seed sucking. But the Browns are also right there, also at 4-6, and whoever loses this game can start making offseason vacation plans for the Monday after Week 17.

Chicago +1 over ST. LOUIS
In the four games that Josh McCown has seen action as the Bears’ quarterback, the team is 2-2 with their two losses coming by a combined six points. Not bad for having to start a 34-year-old backup, who had attempted just 61 passes since the start of the 2008 season.

Meanwhile, the Rams have had to use a backup quarterback of their own in 30-year-old Kellen Clemens. The Rams are 1-2 with Clemens as their starter (their two losses were a 14-9 loss to Seattle and a 28-21 loss to Tennessee) and are coming off a 38-8 blowout win over the Colts.

So in a battle of the backup quarterback, I’m going to go with the team that has something to play for.

BALTIMORE -4 over New York Jets
The Jets have alternated wins and losses every week of the season through 10 games, which means they should win this week if the pattern continues. However, after putting my faith in the Jets last week despite saying, “Everything about this game says I should probably pick the Bills,” and then not picking the Bills, there’s no way I can take the Jets again on the road … in Baltimore … against the defending champs … who are trying to keep their own postseason plans alive. Goodnight, J-E-T-S.

OAKLAND -1 over Tennessee
It looks like we have another of that Game of the Week …

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Raiders fan or a Titans fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

ARIZONA -2.5 over Indianapolis
Not only are the Cardinals a surprising 6-4, but they have just one home loss (to Seattle). And not only are the Colts the weirdest team in the NFL with wins over Seattle, San Francisco and Denver, but losses to the Dolphins, Chargers and Rams, but they can’t be trusted on the road and to continue to produce epic comebacks.

NEW YORK GIANTS -2.5 over Dallas
I will get to this game on Keefe To The City on Friday.

Denver -3 over NEW ENGLAND
Things don’t usually go well for Peyton Manning at Gillette Stadium. Actually they go terribly. But if the Patriots’ secondary is as banged up as it looked in the fourth quarter in Carolina on Monday Night Football then this might be the easiest pick of the week.

San Francisco -6 over WASHINGTON
If the playoffs started today, here is how the NFC would look:

1. Seattle, 10-1
2. New Orleans, 8-2
3. Detroit, 6-4
4. Philadelphia, 6-5
5. Carolina, 7-3
6. San Francisco, 6-4

Right now, the 49ers would be the 6-seed in the NFC and would be looking at going to Detroit to face the Lions at Ford Field for Wild-Card Weekend. That’s a pretty drastic letdown from where the 49ers looked to be entering the season and even as they headed into their bye three weeks ago. But now at 6-4 with back-to-back losses and one of their six remaining games being against the Seahawks, the 49ers need a convincing, confidence-boosting win in the worst. What better opponent for that than the 3-7 Redskins (whose locker room has turned on each other)?

Last week: 5-8-2
Season: 71-84-7