Keefe To The City

Dec 4, 2014

NFL Week 14 Picks

It’s the home stretch. The final month and four weeks of the regular season to take us through the holidays and into the playoffs where the Giants won’t be the for the third straight year.

It was weird in the 2011 playoffs against the Falcons when the Giants were playing their first playoff game since losing to the Eagles in the 2008 playoffs to think about how much time had passed between postseason appearances for them (obviously not a lot compared to other teams, but a lot for the Giants) and if the Giants are to rebound next season and reach the playoffs again, it will be a year longer drought from Super Bowl XLVI to then than it was from 2008-11.

The Giants have gone 18-26 since winning the Super Bowl and now we are likely looking at the last month of Tom Coughlin’s 11-year tenure with the team. When the Giants were defending champions and 6-2 and back in 2012, I didn’t think two years later I would be wondering when the next time they would make the playoffs would be, but here we are looking at another postseason-less Giants season. And to make matters worse, the Patriots appear headed back to the Super Bowl and if the Giants aren’t there to stop them, who will?

(Home team in caps)

Dallas -4 over CHICAGO
When the Bears were leading the Lions 14-3 on Thanksgiving, I was not only wondering why I didn’t bet the Bears to cover, but why I didn’t hammer the Bears’ money line as well. But then that 14-3 led to a 24-3 deficit and at the end of it all, the Bears lost 34-17, were outscored 31-3 after that early lead and finished with 13 rushing yards and two more Jay Cutler interceptions. Every week that I take the Bears makes me feel like Drew Barrymore in 50 First Dates and Sunday represents Adam Sandler making me remember why I swore to no longer pick the Bears back in Week 6.

Baltimore +3 over MIAMI
I wouldn’t mind jumping on the Dolphins’ bandwagon if they were to make the playoffs as currently one of five 7-5 teams in the AFC. The problem is that jumping on their bandwagon would likely be a short ride to elimination. I don’t like the Dolphins aside from the fact that they match up well with the Patriots (which John Jastremski eluded to on the podcast this week) and that is enough for me to pull for the Dolphins since it could mean ending the Patriots’ season. But aside from that, the Dolphins aren’t a team anyone should feel confident backing, considering their narrow escape against the Jets, their meltdown against the Packers and their early-season debacles against the Bills and Chiefs. I need to see a little more than a three-point victory against a Geno Smith-led Jets team playing for nothing in Week 13 to have me put my faith in a team this January (if they make it).

CINCINNATI -3 over Pittsburgh
Two of my least favorite teams meeting this week and for some reason I’m doing the dumbest thing anyone picking NFL games by the spread can do aside from picking Jay Cutler giving points: picking Andy Dalton giving points. I’m wondering at what point of the game I will regret this pick and the over/under is currently set at the first TV timeout. But to be fair, the Bengals have won three straight, are home where they have lost once in the last two years and did go into the Superdome three weeks ago and beat the Saints, which is something as rare as getting a seat on a Metro North train that doesn’t have some unusual stain or residue on it.

Indianapolis -4 over CLEVELAND
I would like to know what this line would be if Johnny Manziel were starting. And whatever that line is, I would be taking the Browns to cover it. I’m not sure how Mike Pettine has watched Brian Hoyer recently and watched Johnny Manziel was able to do in limited time and thinks that Hoyer gives his team the best chance to win. Yes, the Browns are 7-5 this season with Hoyer throwing 11 touchdowns and 10 interceptions and everyone is acting as if what he is doing is improbable when they should be surprised the Browns have a 7-5 record despite his inconsistent play and should be wondering how many more wins the team could have if Manziel had been the starter. But I’m sure Pettine will bench Hoyer for Manziel at some point on Sunday with the Colts holding a commanding lead and the Browns will fall to 7-6 and waste a chance at giving themselves the best chance to win a home game in December with a playoff spot on the line.

Jacksonville +6.5 over HOUSTON
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Jaguars fan or a Texans fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

New York Giants -1.5 over TENNESSEE
I have never used this on the Giants before, but after what happened in Jacksonville, I’m not sure how a TV network can justify shelling out an exorbitant amount of money to broadcast this game when they could just donate that money to charity or pay for some kids to go to college. Here it goes:

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Giants fan or a Titans fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

NEW ORLEANS -10 over Carolina
I thought I knew who the Saints were. I thought they were indestructible in the Superdome and just had to worry about finding a way to win two or three road games each year to make the playoffs. But then they went and lost three straight home games for the first time since 2005 before bouncing back on the road in Pittsburgh. If the Saints can’t win at the Superdome, but can suddenly win on the road and in a place like Heinz Field then how is anyone picking games or wagering on games anymore? The Saints are definitely going to win the NFC South with a losing record and then win their first-round playoff game to make up for what happened to them in the 2010 playoffs in Seattle after a week of every talking head show debating about how unfair it is that an under-.500 team received a playoff berth.

DETROIT -10 over Tampa Bay
I was ready to write how Ford Field is becoming what the Superdome once was and then I remembered that the Bills went there and won back in Week 5. But even if Detroit’s home-field advantage isn’t what New Orleans’ has been during the Sean Payton era, this year it’s strong enough that this game will be teased down by every person making a teaser this week.

St. Louis -3 over WASHINGTON
“RGIII and Out” might be the best nickname I have ever heard in my life and I can’t wait to bring it up when I talk to my friend and Redskins fan Ray Schneider next week on the site before the Giants and Redskins meet for what should be promoted as the “Battle for the Basement” in the NFC East. With reports surfacing that Jay Gruden is done with RGIII and wants him off his team just two years removed from winning the division, the Redskins are following the Jets’ path to success: one step forward, 93 steps backward.

MINNESOTA -6 over New York Jets
I can’t stop thinking about what the Vikings’ season could have been if Teddy Bridgewater had been the starting quarterback from Week 1, Adrian Peterson didn’t behave the way he did and if Norv Turner ever realized that Cordarrelle Patterson is on his team. At the worst, their 5-7 season could easily have been flipped and at 7-5 right now, they would be in the mix for a playoff spot. But they’re not.

DENVER -10 over Buffalo
I don’t really trust the Broncos anymore and I don’t know if they will be able to overtake the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC from the Patriots over the next four weeks, and if they’re not, we might as well cancel the AFC playoffs and pencil in the Patriots for the Super Bowl. It’s time the Broncos played like the Broncos.

ARIZONA +1 over Kansas City
Bruce Arians probably regrets saying that the Cardinals can still win the Super Bowl with Drew Stanton as his quarterback, but really believing Stanton was that good wasn’t his biggest problem. His biggest problem was saying “can still win” as if the Cardinals could have won with Carson Palmer as their quarterback. The Cardinals’ three-game lead has slipped to a one-game lead in the division and after they missed out on the playoffs at 10-6 last year while the 8-7-1 Packers were in, the Cardinals deserve to have a little redemption this season.

San Francisco -9 over OAKLAND
I would take San Francisco -24 here and if they didn’t cover I wouldn’t even care. I don’t know how anyone could feel confident taking the Raiders to cover or even score after what happened last week.

Seattle +1 over PHILADELPHIA
Right now, the Patriots have the 1-seed in the AFC, which means they are pretty much going to the Super Bowl. The only two NFC teams I think that can beat them in Arizona in February are the Seahawks and Packers, so I will be rooting for both teams (two teams I don’t like) the rest of the season until one emerges from the NFC.

SAN DIEGO +4 over New England
This pick is about one thing and one thing only: getting the Broncos the 1-seed.

GREEN BAY -13 over Atlanta
The Packers are the best home team in the league right now and against a 5-7 Falcons team that is currently leading the NFC South, 13 points feels too low.

Last week: 9-7-0
Season: 95-96-1

NHL • Podcasts

Dec 4, 2014

Podcast: Brian Monzo

The state of New York sports isn’t exactly great. For my teams, the Yankees are coming off back-to-back postseason-less seasons for the first time since 1992-93, the Giants are 3-9 and are headed for a

The state of New York sports isn’t exactly great. For my teams, the Yankees are coming off back-to-back postseason-less seasons for the first time since 1992-93, the Giants are 3-9 and are headed for a third straight postseason-less season and the Knicks are the Knicks. The Rangers are the only good thing going right now when it comes to those four and on the other side of New York sports fandom, the Islanders are the only good thing going right now for the misfit fans.

WFAN Mike’s On: Francesa on the FAN producer Brian Monzo joined me to talk about Islanders fans needing to settle down following their team’s hot start, Rick Nash justifying our desire to trade for him at all costs, what exactly Team Degenerate is and if there’s a way Tom Coughlin can still keep his job.

Podcasts • Yankees

Dec 3, 2014

Podcast: John Jastremski

The Yankees last played a game on Sept. 28, but they have gotten worse. Well, maybe not worse, but they certainly haven’t gotten any better. If anything, the team that missed the playoffs in 2013

The Yankees last played a game on Sept. 28, but they have gotten worse. Well, maybe not worse, but they certainly haven’t gotten any better. If anything, the team that missed the playoffs in 2013 and again in 2014 is exactly the same team and with every team around them getting better (cough, cough, Red Sox, cough, cough). I don’t know what Brian Cashman is doing, but the rotation has concerns, the lineup has holes and there is still the issue of not having a shortstop. No big deal.

WFAN host John Jastremski joined me to talk about the Yankees’ lack of moves this offseason, what Brian Cashman’s strategy is for the future of the team and we touch on the state of his Dolphins and the Tom Coughlin situation.

Blogs • Columns Archive • Giants

Dec 2, 2014

The Tom Coughlin Conundrum

Once upon a time the Giants were 3-2, riding a three-game winning streak, making it seem like that 0-2 start against the Lions and Cardinals was an early-season hiccup and making believers out of everyone,

Once upon a time the Giants were 3-2, riding a three-game winning streak, making it seem like that 0-2 start against the Lions and Cardinals was an early-season hiccup and making believers out of everyone, including me. Then again, it’s never been hard to make a believer out of me when it comes to the Giants.

Back-to-back losses to start the season? No problem, they’ll win the next three. Three straight wins over teams that are currently a combined 14-22? We’re the team to beat. Back-to-back losses to the Eagles and Cowboys before the bye week? We’ll use the bye to get healthy and bounce back. Run out of the building in Indianapolis? We just have to go 2-1 in the next three games. Meltdown in Seattle? We can beat the 49ers and Cowboys. Losses to the 49ers and Cowboys to fall to 3-8? We can win out and save Tom Coughlin’s job. Blowing a 21-point lead to the one-win Jaguars to lose a seventh straight game? (Crickets … crickets … crickets.)

That’s a lot of irrational thinking for someone who has spent his entire life watching this team pull the rug out from underneath me except for two unbelievable runs. And it’s because of those two runs that the world was kept safe from hearing about the 2007 Patriots every day forever and from keeping Brady and Belichick from immortality once again in 2011. If not for those two postseason runs, Brady and Belichick would likely be 5-0 in the Super Bowl and if the Packers had won the NFC Championship Game in 2007 or the 49ers had won it in 2011, they would be. And it’s because of those two runs that I believe in this team when I shouldn’t and it’s because of those two runs that even without the playoffs for a third straight year, I kept wanting Tom Coughlin to be the Giants’ head coach in 2015. But after Sunday, thinking that might be my most irrational thought of all.

Here’s how every Giants season has gone during the Tom Coughlin era:

2004: The Giants start the year 5-2 with Kurt Warner starting and showing Eli the ropes. They lose back-to-back games to fall to 5-4 and start planning for the future by letting Eli start, which causes unrest and division in the locker room. Eli goes 1-6 in his first seven starts in the league, but wins the final game of the year against the Cowboys. The Giants finish the year at 6-10 and don’t make the playoffs.

2005: It’s Eli’s first full year. The Giants go 6-2 in the first half of the season then go 5-3 in the second half of the season. They make the playoffs for the first time since blowing a 24-point lead against the 49ers in the 2002 playoffs. The Giants lose 23-0 at home in the first round of the playoffs, as Eli goes 10-for-18 for 113 yards with no touchdowns and three interceptions. The Giants finish with just 132 total yards in the game. Bad finish.

2006: The Giants start the year 6-2, but are now 7-7, and entering Week 16, for them to clinch a playoff berth, they need one of two scenarios to happen.

1. Win + Minnesota loss or tie + Atlanta loss + Philadelphia win or tie + Seattle win or tie.

OR

2. Win + Minnesota loss or tie + Atlanta loss + Philadelphia win or tie + San Francisco loss or tie.

The Giants lose 30-7 to the Saints, but the Vikings, Falcons, Seahawks and 49ers all lose too, and the Giants basically hit the biggest parlay ever. Only the Eagles win, so the Giants just need to win in Week 17 against the Redskins and they make the playoffs at 8-8.

The Giants beat the Redskins to get into the playoffs at 8-8 thanks to a Giants single-game rushing record of 234 yards (on just 23 carries) from Tiki Barber. The Giants are just the ninth team in history to reach the postseason without a winning record. After starting the year 6-2, they finish the year 2-6. Then they lose 23-20 to the Eagles in the first round of the playoffs on a David Akers 38-yard field goal with no time remaining.

2007: They start the year 0-2, but win six in a row after that. After their bye in Week 9, they finish the year 4-4, and with a 10-6 record, they are the No. 5 seed in the playoffs. They run the table on the road in the NFC playoffs, beating the Buccaneers, Cowboys and Packers and then beat the 18-0 Patriots in the Super Bowl.

2008: They’re 11-1, but are now without Plaxico Burress for the rest of the year. The Giants finish the regular season 1-3 (they would have finished 0-4 if John Kasay didn’t miss a field goal for the Panthers in Week 16), but still get the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs. They lose in the divisional round at home to the Eagles 23-11.

2009: They start the year 5-0, and then lose four games in a row. They come off their bye week to beat the Falcons in Week 11, but lose four of their last six games in embarrassing fashion to finish the year at 8-8, and miss the playoffs.

2010: They’re 6-2 after Week 9, but then they lose to Jon Kitna and the 2-6 Cowboys at home, and then they lose in Philadelphia the following week thanks to five turnovers and an Eli dive that turns into a fumble with the Giants down by seven and 2:51 left in the game. At 6-4, the Giants win three in a row, and have a chance to lock up the NFC East in Week 15 at home against the Eagles. They blow a 21-point lead with 7:18 left and lose. They have a chance to rebound the following week and still make the playoffs, but they lose 45-17 in Green Bay. In Week 17, they need a win against the Redskins and a Bears win over the Packers. They beat the Redskins 17-14 on the road, but the Bears lose to the Packers.

2011: The season was a Tony Romo to Miles Austin completion away from being maybe the worst collapse of them all. After losing to the 49ers, the Giants lost the next three games to start the second half of their season 0-4, dropping them to 6-6. We all know what happened in the final five minutes and 41 seconds in Dallas in Week 14 and after that, but no one knew all of that would happen. No one could fathom that all of that would happen and happen essentially the same way it did four years before.

2012: They start off 2-2, but win four straight to improve to 6-2. They lose four of their next six, but set themselves up where back-to-back wins in the final two weeks against the Ravens and Eagles will clinch them a playoff spot. They lose to the Ravens 33-14 (a week after losing 34-0 to the Falcons) and wind up beating the Eagles 42-7 in Week 17, but it doesn’t matter. A 9-7 season.

2013: They lose their first six games of the season before winning the next four. Somehow at 4-6 they control their own destiny if they can beat the Cowboys in Week 12. They have their chances to win the game, but tied at 21 with four seconds left, the Cowboys kick a 35-yard field goal to end the Giants’ season. After starting 0-4, they win seven of 10, but the 7-9 record is the worst since 2004.

And then there’s this season, which didn’t even have a second half to collapse.

Eli Manning was right when he said that Tom Coughlin didn’t fumble the ball like Eli did or the way Larry Donnell did. It wasn’t Tom Coughlin who couldn’t stop the Jaguars from getting down the field in the final minute to kick a go-ahead field goal. But it wasn’t just about the Jaguars game and it’s not about the Giants’ misfortune of having the most player on injured reserve in the entire NFL this season. It’s about a 3-2 start that’s become 3-9 this season. It’s about the 0-6 start last year and the 6-2 start that became a 9-7 finish in 2012. It’s about the second-half collapses that happened before the last two years when there wasn’t even a second half to collapse and it’s about Tom Coughlin being the oldest coach in the NFL and the idea that 11 years straight coaching any NFL team should be calculated in dog years and that 11 years straight coaching an NFL team in New York should be calculated goldfish years. Coughlin should be commended for his longevity in this city and should get to go out on his own terms, but that’s unlikely to happen now.

It’s not that all of the non-2007/2011 seasons are Tom Coughlin’s fault and it’s not like he is the sole reason for the team’s constant underachieving. The problem with the Giants isn’t even necessarily Tom Coughlin at all. The real problem is the situation the ownership has created.

Ownership gave their 11-year, two-time champion, 68-year-old head coach a first-year offensive coordinator he didn’t want and their general manager gave him an offensive line unfit for the NFL and a pass rush that’s mostly non-existent. They set themselves up for a scenario where their next head coach is either going to be someone with just one year of coordinator experience (Ben McAdoo) or one where a new head coach is going to have to agree to have McAdoo on his staff in order to be the Giants’ coach. Because after one year and with Eli Manning on his way to potentially posting career bests in completion percentage, touchdowns and interceptions, McAdoo isn’t going anywhere. So a new head coach (if it’s not McAdoo) is going to start in the same position Coughlin will have left in and after Sunday’s 2006-loss-to-Tennessee-esque performance, it’s likely that Coughlin is going to pay for the Giants’ fall from Super Bowl champions to 9-7 to 7-9 to whatever embarrassing record they finish with this season. And for the first time since the end of the 2010 season, I’m unsure of what I want when it comes to Coughlin as the head coach of the Giants.

The following is what I wrote at the end of the 2010 season.

This is what scares me about Tom Coughlin. I have wanted Tom Coughlin out several times, but who’s to say that Bill Cowher or anyone else they bring in will be better? Coughlin is the only coach that Eli Manning has every played under in the NFL, and I don’t know if right now is the right time to be changing the whole landscape of the coaching staff at this stage of Eli’s career.

There are many times when I wish I could confront Coughlin and just say, “Are you effing kidding me?” Like when he wasn’t ready for the Eagles’ onside kick or when he ripped into Matt Dodge in the middle of the field after DeSean Jackson’s punt return. Joe Girardi’s pitching changes usually get the most four-letter words out of my mouth, but Tom Coughlin’s decision making this season has taken the belt away from Girardi.

If Coughlin is fired, then so be it.

And if Coughlin isn’t fired, I’m OK with that too.

This time around it’s the same thing.

MLB • Podcasts

Dec 2, 2014

Podcast: Mike Hurley

The football season is over in New York and for the Giants and the way things are going for the Yankees this offseason, the baseball season might for me might go the same way this

The football season is over in New York and for the Giants and the way things are going for the Yankees this offseason, the baseball season might for me might go the same way this football season did. Up in Boston, the Patriots are chugging along and look like they are headed back to at least the AFC Championship Game, while the Red Sox are adding every reliable bat on the open market. Things aren’t going well right now.

Mike Hurley of CBS Boston joined me talk about whether it’s better to have been a Giants fan or a Patriots fan over the last 10 years, which team can continue the Patriots’ championship drought and the Red Sox using the 2004-08 Yankees’ strategy when it comes to building their team.