Keefe To The City

May 29, 2015

Podcast: 610 Barstool Sports New York

The Rangers have become familiar with Game 7 and now they will play one for a chance to go back to the Stanley Cup Final for a second straight year.

Another Game 7. Sixteen days after winning a Game 7 against the Capitals, the Rangers are back in the same spot: Game 7 at Madison Square Garden. The difference is this time it’s for a trip to the Stanley Cup Final and a chance to finish the job they started last year.

610 of Barstool Sports New York joined me to talk about what the confidence level should be for Rangers fans for Game 7, how coaching and experience will factor into the game and if anything other than winning the Stanley Cup means the season is a disappointment.

Podcasts • Rangers

May 28, 2015

Podcast: Adam Herman

The Rangers have never lost a Game 7 at Madison Square Garden in the team’s history and that trend will need to continue against the Lightning.

The Rangers are one win away from returning to the Stanley Cup Final for the second straight year and that win will have to come in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference finals against the Lightning. The Rangers have been unpredictable so far in this series and haven’t played their best at home, but they have also never lost a Game 7 at the Garden in the team’s history.

Adam Herman of Blueshirt Banter joined me to talk about Game 7 of the Eastern Conference finals, the unpredictable efforts from the Rangers in the series, the lazy rhetoric about Henrik Lundqvist needing to win the Cup and Rick Nash’s postseason performance.

Blogs • Email Exchanges • Yankees

May 28, 2015

The Yankees Are Getting the A’s at the Right Time

The Yankees are headed to the West Coast for a seven-game road trip and it starts with a four-game series in Oakland where the A’s are in last place.

The last six games are a good indication of the 2015 Yankees as they were swept at home by the Rangers and then swept what might be the best team in baseball in the Royals the following three days. After being nine games over .500 and erasing that in two weeks, the Yankees appear to be back on track and are headed to Oakland at the best possible time.

With the Yankees and A’s meeting for the first time this season, Alex Hall of Athletics Nation joined me to talk about what happened down the stretch to the A’s last year, the trades for Jon Lester and Jeff Samardzija and what’s gone wrong for the A’s to start this season.

Keefe: Last year in our email exchange, I asked you this:

When it comes to the A’s, what are the year-end expectations, especially after the team’s resurgence the last few years? Is just making the postseason enough for you, or are you tired of “just” making the postseason?

You answered with this:

This team is built to win right now and has actually mortgaged a little bit of its future to do so, and a failure to bring home a title, much less a league pennant, would be severely disappointing.

The A’s ended up blowing their AL West lead, settled for the second wild-card spot and then blew a late lead in that game to the Royals. Along the way there, they crushed the trade deadline and sacrificed potential future stars for Jon Lester and Jeff Samardzija, and neither of them are on the A’s this year. (We’ll get to that in a little.)

How disappointing was the finish to the 2014 season?

Hall: It was almost a worst-case scenario. The new pitchers helped a lot and the A’s probably wouldn’t even have made it to the wild-card game at all without them, but the rest of the team just fell apart. With the exceptions of Josh Donaldson, Josh Reddick, and Eric Sogard, the entire lineup either got hurt and stopped hitting or got hurt and just went on the DL. Meanwhile, the starting pitching was always just good enough to not win and the bullpen continued to be lights-out right up until it was time to seal a save. Everything that could go wrong did.

The wild-card game was much the same — two A’s left with injuries, including the catcher who was there specifically to halt the Royals’ running game, and they ended up losing one of the most heartbreaking games in MLB history despite scoring seven runs. The only way it would have been worse would have been finishing one game lower in the standings and missing the wild-card game completely — even a heartbreaking loss is better than not making it at all.

Keefe: I was ecstatic when the A’s traded for Jon Lester and took Boston’s homegrown ace in the middle of another last-place season for the Red Sox. Red Sox fans stupidly thought they would just end up re-signing Lester in the offseason and that it was just more of a loan to Oakland and that in 2015 they would have Lester back and have Yoenis Cespedes in the lineup, but they don’t have either player now.

That trade seemed to change the A’s offense down the stretch of the season and they were never really the same team after it. Cespedes had been a middle-of-the-order presence and had helped them climb to first place and distance themselves from the rest of the division, and was maybe a bigger part of the A’s than Billy Beane had thought.

Were you on board with that trade at the time? Do you think it destroyed the offense?

Hall: I will say that I wasn’t into the idea of trading for Lester before it happened. I wanted to roll the dice with the guys who had brought us to the top of the MLB standings. And there wasn’t a single person in Oakland who didn’t get sick when they woke up to hear that Cespedes was gone — he was massively popular here, as he will be wherever he plays. However, from a statistical standpoint, it did make logical sense to deal from an area of strength (offense) to beef up a weakness (thin rotation).

Even though I would not have made the trade, and even though I would undo it if I could go back in time, I still just don’t think it made any difference in the end. Losing Cespedes is not what destroyed the offense. That was accomplished when Brandon Moss’ hip turned to mush, when John Jaso got concussed, when Jed Lowrie missed time, when Stephen Vogt’s foot injury sapped his hitting, when Derek Norris wore down, when Coco Crisp’s neck injury knocked him in and out of the order, when Alberto Callaspo was an everyday player and even a DH, when Jonny Gomes failed to hit even one homer, when Craig Gentry got concussed, and when Adam Dunn OPS’ed .634 as an emergency replacement. The lineup was a juggernaut in the first half, and losing one guy did not destroy it — especially considering that, by the numbers, Cespedes was only the third-best hitter on the team after Donaldson and Moss. Losing him was one part of a larger puzzle, and it certainly didn’t help the offense when he left, but it took a lot more than that one loss to completely tank the entire unit.

Keefe: The A’s also traded for Jeff Samardzija last summer and had to give up Addison Russell to get him, who now looks to be the future of the middle infield for the Cubs. Then this past offseason, the A’s traded Samardzija to the White Sox to replenish their roster and try to salvage what was the lost in the trade for Cubs knowing that they wouldn’t pay Samardzija at the end of this season anyway.

Are you devastated that Russell was dealt last season knowing his potential?

Hall: It’s tough to see him begin to blossom so quickly in Chicago, but I’ve come to peace with that trade. I am 100 percent certain that the A’s season would have been even more disappointing if they hadn’t acquired a pitcher, and at the time it looked like the early bird might be the only one to get a worm. Plus, getting your guy in early July means you get an extra month of production out of your rental. It’s easy to look back now and say that Billy Beane should have waited longer for the market to develop, and I’ll admit that before the trade I was not interested in Shark nor Hammel, but it’s also true that Shark pitched like a legitimate ace in Oakland and so at least Beane got his money’s worth in that sense. He got what he was looking for in the trade, it just wasn’t enough.

On the other side, Shark was turned into four players from the White Sox. None of them are as good as Russell could be, but at least there is something left to show for him. If he builds on this promising start and becomes an All-Star then that will be a big bummer for A’s fans, but that’s the price of business if you want to take a big-time gamble for the big prize.

Keefe: Sorry to make you feel bad and harp on the end of the 2014 season (feel free to ask me about the 2013 and 2014 Yankees), but let’s talk about this year A’s team, which has gotten off to a horrific start, is 15 games under .500 and 13 1/2 games back in the West.

What has happened to the A’s team that was at times the best team in baseball over the last three years? Is there anything to feel good about right now other than Sonny Gray?

Hall; This has been a frustrating year to watch because the A’s have been playing pretty well but don’t have the wins to show for it. The rotation is among the best in baseball, and the lineup has been solid despite losing Coco and missing Ben Zobrist for a month. But the defense has been horrendous and the bullpen has been even worse, and every day they come oh-so-close to winning and then fall short in a new and amazing way.

The A’s are 2-15 in one-run games, and that kind of futility goes beyond a lack of skill or “clutch”-ness and into the realm of rotten luck. If the starting pitcher is good, then the lineup gets shut out. If the lineup scores, then the defense makes a major error. If the defense holds up, then the bullpen blows it with a big homer. It feels like flipping a coin and getting tails every time, and knowing that one of these days it’ll come up heads … but will it be tomorrow, next week, or next year?

Keefe: The A’s won the West in 2012 and 2013 and reached the playoffs as a wild-card team last year. It was the first time the team had made the playoffs in three straight seasons since they went to the playoffs in four straight from 2000-2003.

It seems like the window of opportunity for the A’s it always is so small and right when they are about to get over the hump, it closes and then it’s rebuilding mode again. After 94-, 96- and 88-win seasons over the last three years and now a 17-32 start, it looks like it’s rebuilding mode again.

What were your expectations for the A’s this season coming off three straight postseason appearances and what are they now after nearly two months of baseball?

Hall: The A’s looked like they were aiming for the playoffs again, but their sights weren’t set as hard on that goal as in the last couple years. They were willing to make a couple of win-now moves, but only after selling high on a lot of big names. This was a team with solid-but-not-huge playoff dreams, and while it’s shocking to see them lose this much it’s not like anyone was guaranteeing a postseason berth.

The A’s are still loaded with a lot of good players, and I’ve seen a lot of unlikely runs both from Oakland and from other teams in the last 15 years. I haven’t given up on the season, but I do realize that the chances of a comeback are slim and shrinking by the day. Realistically, the rest of this season should be seen as an audition for young players like Jesse Hahn, Kendall Graveman, Billy Burns, and Marcus Semien. On the other hand, big performances from those players would also be the path to the postseason, so one way or other my expectations are just to hope for the best from everyone and see what happens. Sonny Gray is pitching like he has Cy Young aspirations, so that will be something to watch regardless of the team’s record.

Oakland has a few pending free agents, so if they don’t turn things around more or less immediately then they could be sellers. But Zobrist already missed a month, Scott Kazmir just left his last start with shoulder soreness, and Tyler Clippard hasn’t had a chance to rack up many saves — it’s tough to say if the A’s could even get any good deals for those guys, or if they should hold onto them, hand out qualifying offers and see if they can retain any of them on one-year deals (or get draft picks as compensation).

Blogs • Rangers

May 26, 2015

The Rangers Will Win Game 6

The Rangers will win Game 6 against the Lightning because this season isn’t supposed to end in Tampa Bay in the Eastern Conference finals.

I have never panicked when it comes to this Rangers’ season. I have worried about it. Well, I worried once about it. I worried about this Rangers’ season with 1:42 left in Game 5 against the Capitals. The Rangers had scored one goal in Games 3 and 4 combined and were being shut out once again Game 5. There were only 102 seconds left in the season for them to save their season, but luckily, they did with 101 seconds left in the game. After that game, I never felt worried again in the series. Not in Game 6 and not in Game 7 and I certainly never panicked.

After the Rangers’ Game 3 loss to the Lightning, it felt like every Rangers fan believed the season was over, the same way most did after Game 4 against the Capitals and Game 4 against the Penguins last season. Sure, in Game 3, the Rangers had blown a two-goal lead just like they had in the 2013-14 Stanley Cup Final, and after overcoming a two-goal deficit of their own in the same game, they lost in overtime. No one wanted to stop and think that if they won Game 4, they would be right where they needed to be with a split in Tampa Bay, and it would be the same result as winning Game 3 and losing Game 4, everyone just wanted to give their instant analysis that the Rangers were done because no Stanley Cup champion has ever lost a game in the playoffs or trailed in a series.

The blame game started with Henrik Lundqvist on Wednesday night because it was Lundqvist who had allowed the long overtime goal from Nikita Kucherov, which happened about a minute after Lundqvist had stopped a J.T. Brown breakaway (Lundqvist would have been better off letting the breakaway attempt in and losing then). Rick Nash’s postseason effort was once again called into question following another scoreless game and Martin St. Louis’ decline was brought to the forefront. No one cared to wonder why the Rangers’ defense was allowing odd-man rushes seemingly every time down the ice, the loss was all on Lundqvist and Nash and St. Louis. The loss was on the stars.

There was nothing to complain about after Game 4 when Lundqvist allowed just one goal on 39 shots (the Rangers only had 24 shots), Nash scored twice and St. Louis scored for the first time this postseason in a 5-1 win. Everything was happy in New York (I mean Rangerstown). There was nothing to complain about for 48 hours with a home game in Game 5 on tap and the Rangers coming off their most impressive game of the postseason.

Sunday’s Game 5 was the worst imaginable performance from the Rangers given the point in the series, the setting for the game and their effort in the previous game. Coming off their most impressive win of the playoffs just two days earlier, the game we saw from the Rangers on Sunday night wasn’t even a possibility in my mind. How could that Rangers team in Tampa Bay on Friday night be the same Rangers team two nights later in New York? How could the team that had scored nine goals in two games against Ben Bishop and the Lightning defense, not score in a pivotal Game 5 at home, and not even not score, but not even come close to scoring?

It didn’t matter that Lundqvist stood on his head again and the only two pucks that got by him were because of the Rangers’ defense allowing a deep 3-on-2 to and somehow allowing arguably the best pure goal scorer in the WORLD to sit wide open at the top of the crease on the power play.

Game 5 felt like any Rangers playoff game from 2004-05 to 2011-12 where scoring once felt impossible and scoring twice was impossible. And like those postseasons, even if Lundqvist were actually superhuman and could have stopped all of the Lightning’s shots and denied all of their wide-open, in-the-slot scoring chances, the Rangers would have lost eventually. They weren’t scoring on Sunday night if that game was played for another period or another four hours.

I thought the Eastern Conference finals run in 2011-12 meant the future would mean no more wondering which Rangers team would show up on a given night, but then in 2012-13, the same old Rangers showed up against the Bruins in the second round. And after last year’s improbable Final run I thought, “OK, now I really won’t have to worry about which Rangers team will show up in the future,” but that’s clearly not the case after Sunday’s embarrassment.

The Rangers never make things easy and they weren’t about to start in this series against the Lightning. This team has successfully handled every form of adversity they have been dealt this season and have played with the finality of the end of the season three times and won every time, and now they need to do it for a fourth time (and then a fifth).

Tonight will be the Rangers’ 100th game this season and it could be the last. Tomorrow could be Day 1 off a four-plus month offseason and the first day of another summer of wondering when Rangers fans will stop having to live off the moments of the 1993-94 playoffs. But it won’t be.

I didn’t panic when the Rangers lost Game 2 at home to the Penguins or when they lost Game 1 to the Capitals or when they trailed 3-1 in the series. I didn’t panic when they were run out of MSG in Game 2 against the Lightning or when they blew Game 3, and I’m not going to panic now even after the most miserable effort in the biggest game of the 2014-15 season. The Rangers will win Game 6. They have to.

Blogs • Email Exchanges

May 19, 2015

Here’s to Hoping Bryce Harper Becomes a Yankee

Bryce Harper is in his fourth season, is just 22 years old and is becoming the best player in the league. I can’t wait until he becomes a Yankee.

The Yankees went 2-5 in Tampa Bay and Kansas City and the embarrassing start to the road trip has led to a lot of the Yankees shaving off their mustaches. Obviously the Yankees’ scoring two runs or less in those five losses is because of facial hair.

With the Yankees and Nationals meeting for a short two-game series in Washington, James Meyerriecks of Federal Baseball joined me to talk about Bryce Harper’s incredible start to the season, the impact of Max Scherzer at the front of the rotation, what’s wrong with Stephen Strasburg and how easily the Nationals will win the NL East.

Keefe: In Bryce Harper’s rookie year in 2012, he hit 22 home runs at the age of 19. In 2013, he hit 20. Last season, he hit 13. It’s May 19 and he already has 14 this season and he’s 22 years old! I said 22!

Aside from home runs, Harper leads the league in runs scored, RBIs, walks, on-base percentage and slugging percentage.

How fun has it been to watch Harper over these three-plus seasons go from a teenage to possibly the most feared hitter in the majors? And I guess how devastating will it be when he’s a Yankee in a few years?!

Meyerriecks: Overall, it’s been a pleasure watching Harper grow before our eyes. That’s not to say there haven’t been some growing pains, though. Nationally, we always see labels like cocky or brash or immature. Harper’s youthful exuberance is part of what makes him such a fun player to watch for Nationals fans, but it’s also why he can be such a lightning rod with the media. Unfortunately, that youthful exuberance has actually had quite a few instances where it’s cost both Harper and the Nats over the past few seasons. He’s cost himself quite a bit of time due to injury after crashing into walls and tearing a ligament in his thumb on a head first slide.

As for his approach at the plate, that’s as mature as it gets. Early this season, he’s really showcased what aregenerally considered to be old player skills in the batter’s box. It’s always a fun cat and mouse game watching pitchers try to attack him. At just 22 years old, Harper is already growing into a player who very rarely swings at a “pitcher’s pitch”. He’s dictating almost every plate appearance with his discipline and has been reaping the benefits over the first month and a half. This isn’t something that happened over night, but it’s a part of his game that hasreally evolved so far this season.

As for the future Yankee question, we’ll see how it plays out. Harper is a Scott Boras client, so it would be a major surprise if he doesn’t test free agency when he’s eligible. We’ll cross that bridge when we get there, though. Harper will be a National through at least 2018, so I’ll enjoy him while he’s here.

Keefe: Every day the Nationals send somewhat of a household name to the mound with Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmerman, Doug Fister and Gio Gonzalez. It wasn’t that long ago that Gonzalez was either the team’s No. 1 or No. 2 starter and now he’s either the No. 4 or No. 5.

In New York, with Masahiro Tanaka on the disabled list, It’s Michael Pineda, CC Sabathia, Nathan Eovaldi, Adam Warren and Chris Capuano, which is probably the Yankees’ worst rotation since they were trotting Sidney Ponson and Darrell Rasner out there way too much in 2008.

What’s it like knowing that every game you might have the better starting pitching going and have a chance to win? I only ask because I miss that feeling.

Meyerriecks: Part of what’s so fun about this rotation is that they not only have multiple aces, but amazing depth. All five of the Nats starters are capable of going out and throwing zeros up on the board every time they step on the diamond. What’s scariest for other teams (particularly within the NL East) is that they even have depth beyond that starting five, with Tanner Roark having moved to the bullpen after going 15-10 with a 2.85 ERA last season.

It’s awesome knowing that, regardless of who is up next in the rotation, there’s potential for a dominant performance. Even when the team is scuffling a bit, it’s never really time to panic. There’s this old adage about momentum only being as good as the next day’s starting pitcher. The Nats’ rotation depth means that they’re always just a day away from having a terrific shot at snapping a losing streak. They’ve come a long ways from the days when John Lannan was getting the opening day nod.

Keefe: I wasn’t happy this offseason when the Yankees decided to not be in on Max Scherzer, Jon Lester or James Shields. Given the concerns and unknowns of most of the Yankees rotation, I felt they needed to make a play for at least one of the three best starters available on the free-agent market to solidify their staff, but they didn’t and now I’m stuck watching Adam Warren and Chris Capuano make up 40 percent of the rotation.

The Nationals signed Scherzer to a seven-year, $210 million deal and so far he has lived up to his deal as he has a 1.75 ERA and somehow, but somehow has three losses. In those three losses, he gave up three earned runs combined and he also has a no-decision in which he allowed on earned run over six innings. From past Yankees free-agent pitching signings (most of which didn’t work out), I can say there is usually an adjustment period to a starter on a new team trying to prove himself or prove his worth, but that hasn’t been the case for Scherzer.

Have you been impressed with how good Scherzer has been in his return to the NL or did you expect this kind of performance?

Meyerriecks: At the time that the Nats signed him, I expected to hear a lot about how signing Scherzer was unnecessary with all of that rotation depth that you brought up in the previous question. With Zimmermann and Fister due to hit free agency after this season, Scherzer’s signing seemed like a move to stabilize the rotation beyond 2015. It certainly seemed like a deal that would improve the team this season as well, and it has.

Based on what he’d already done in his career, I don’t think there was much doubt that his on-field performance would fit right in on the Nats. He did win the 2013 AL Cy Young. He led the majors in strikeouts from 2012-2014. He ranked 22nd in ERA (3.24) and 6th in FIP (2.94) over that same span, so there was little doubt that his profile added an awful lot of talent to the 2015 Nats.

However, what’s been most amazing is how the team and the city have embraced him. At the time that the Nats signed Scherzer, we heard lots of stories that Scherzer wanted to sign with the Nats and that, unlike what we’d usually expect to hear, he was as aggressive about pursuing a contract in D.C. as the Nats were in pursuing him. When I heard that, I thought it was all lip service. Scherzer didn’t exactly have ties to the area. He grew up (here … yeah … Nats fan in St. Louis) in St. Louis rooting for the (cough) Cardinals.

After watching him these first couple of months, I don’t think it was lip service at all. I can’t put my finger on why it’s worked out so perfectly. It’s possible that all the Boras ties on the Nats roster play a role with how comfortable he immediately seemed in the clubhouse. Scherzer hasn’t only fit in on the Nats roster, but he’s immediately stepped in as kind of the class clown. He’s quickly become both a fan favorite and a favorite in the Nats clubhouse.

Keefe: What is wrong with Stephen Strasburg? Last year’s strikeout leader still has over a strikeout per inning, but he’s allowed 55 hits in 40 2/3 innings, has a 5.98 ERA and 1.648 WHIP.

I thought the Yankees dodged a bullet by not seeing Scherzer and also Strasburg in this two-game series, but maybe I should have wanted them to see Strasburg right now?

Meyerriecks: It hasn’t been pretty watching Strasburg so far this season. He did tweak his ankle in spring training, which led to him wearing a brace. This seemed to do a number on his mechanics a bit, which led to him leaving a start a few weeks ago with pain under his shoulder blade. He’s dealing with injuries and mechanical issues, and this seems to have done a number on his command. It’s a never ending cycle. The next time he has a rough start, we’re going to hear that he’s breathing out of the wrong eyelid.

I kid, I kid. The command and mechanics have been the major issues, but there’s also some small sample size noise in there. He’s allowed a .380 BABIP to this point so far this season. His career BABIP against is .304, and the league average is about .295. While his batted ball profile suggests that his BABIP should be a bit higher than we’re used to seeing (he’s allowing a 26.5 percent line drive rate!), there’s no way that doesn’t start to normalize some. When the BABIP starts to come down, so will the WHIP… and the ERA. The stuff has still been there, so hopefully he can get more comfortable (healthier?) and put the mechanical issues behind him.

Keefe: The Nationals started the season 1-4 and were 7-13 on April 27. But since then, they have gone 15-4, are now 22-17 and trail the Mets by one game in the NL East.

Before the season, everyone picked the Nationals to win the East and there were a lot of predictions for them to go to the World Series and win it. The Mets still don’t seem postseason-ready, the Marlins are in their usual state of disarray, the Braves are trying to rebuild and the Phillies are a disaster. The NL East should be the easiest of the six divisions to win, especially for a Nationals team that won’t endure long periods of losing because of their starting rotation.

Is there any doubt in your mind that the Nationals will win their division?

Meyerriecks: If you’d asked me this question two or three weeks ago, I might have had a little more doubt. The Nats are still the best team in the NL East. They were two or three weeks ago, too, but the early season slide had left the Mets banking an eight game lead. Even over five months, being eight games better than another good team is a difficult chore. With just one game separating the two after these past few weeks, there’s not much doubt in my mind that the Nats will overtake them and win the division.

The Mets are probably closer to prime time than many of us thought they were entering the season. Harvey and deGrom form a dominant 1-2 punch atop the rotation. Bartolo Colon has become one of my favorite pitchers to watch (even though I still curse Omar Minaya about that trade back in the day) in his old age. I hear that they have some Norse god that they brought up who is pretty good, too. While Harvey, deGrom, and Syndergaard will form an imposing front of the rotation, I expect them all to have a few rough stretches this season due to inexperience and (in Harvey’s case) fatigue in his first year back from Tommy John surgery.

The Mets offense and bullpen are real hit or miss, and I think that’s what will ultimately keep them from challenging the Nats for the division over the long haul. The Marlins are talented, but they’ve dug too deep a hole for themselves and just recently made their GM their manager. As an Expos holdover, it’s fun to watch Jeffrey Loria’s (new) team be a complete train wreck. The Braves have been kind of a nice surprise so far this season, but they don’t have the offensive depth around Freddie Freeman to sustain a run. The Phillies just need to find a way to trade away any of their players that are over 30 and maybe they’ll be competitive by 2019.

The Nats will take the NL East … no problem.