Keefe To The City

Oct 26, 2015

Monday Mentions: The Deal with Daniel Murphy

The Mets are headed to the World Series. There’s a sentence I hoped I would never have to write, or at least not write without saying they would be headed to the World Series to play the Yankees.

The Mets are headed to the World Series. There’s a sentence I hoped I would never have to write, or at least not write without saying they would be headed to the World Series to play the Yankees. But after beating up on the worst division in baseball, getting past the best 1-2 starting pitching punch in the games and the 97-win Cubs, the Mets are four wins away from a championship and it’s up to the Royals to stop them.

Here is another installment of “Monday Mentions” focused on a mix of questions and comments from Twitter about the Giants, the Yankees and the Mets being in the World Series.

@NeilKeefe does Eli commit intentional grounding once a game? Unfuckin real

— Eric (@EBones7) October 20, 2015

Yes, yes he does. It’s actually remarkable how often Eli takes an intentional grounding penalty. If it’s not once a game then it’s at least every other game. I watch a lot of football and at least part of every game every week. (Yes, I know that’s disgusting, but at least I know I’m not alone.) And in all of these other games, I rarely ever see an intentional grounding penalty, so I wonder what non-Giants fans think when they watch Eli take one seemingly every game.

But that’s not the only thing the Giants do that other teams don’t. No one takes delay of game penalties like the Giants and no one gets to the line slower following a close play that will likely be challenged by the opposing team like the Giants. All of these things are what make the Giants the Giants and what makes them the most frustrating and best good/bad team in professional sports. It’s who they are and they’re never going to change.

@NeilKeefe PED's,You think? I thought it was a possibility for players to try it during the playoffs. I don't know the test regiment.

— Brian K. (@Yankees_4Life) October 19, 2015

In Slap Shot, the following exchange takes place between Tim McCracken and Ned Braden after Reggie Dunlop puts a bounty on McCracken’s head.

Tim McCracken: Hundred bucks says you’re gonna crack my skull.

Ned Braden: I wouldn’t crack your knuckle for a hundred bucks.

Tim McCracken: So, he’s bluffing.

Ned Braden: Someboy’s gonna kill you, ya dumb son of a bitch, but it’s not gonna be me.

That last Braden line is how I feel about Daniel Murphy and hope it’s true when it comes to Brian Cashman and the Yankees. “Someone is going to overpay for Murphy, but it’s not going be the Yankees you dumb son of a bitch.”

Daniel Murphy is nowhere near the player he was offensively, defensively and on the bases in the NLDS and NLCS. It’s almost as if he were suddenly using Alex Mack-like powers to become Babe Ruth in the playoffs. It’s going to be bad when Murphy gets $85 million to hit 10-14 home runs and play bad defense and prove himself to be nothing more than a light-hitting designated hitter.

@NeilKeefe I once saw the team with the best running back in the NFL run a pass play on the goal line with the Super Bowl on the line…….

— Rich (@MMAfanRich) October 19, 2015

I will never get over this. Like, the Yankees not completing the trade for Cliff Lee in July 2010 or going incredibly over the top to sign him in December 2010 or Joe Torre letting Jeff Weaver lose Game 4 of the 2003 World Series with Mariano Rivera in the bullpen or the Rangers blowing two-goal leads in Games 1 and 2 and losing all three overtime games in the 2013-14 Stanley Cup Final, I will never get over Pete Carroll’s decision to throw the ball on the goal line of the Super Bowl. Thank you for ruining my day by bringing this up.

https://twitter.com/JSC2100/status/657204247755366400

Brian Cashman has his work cut out for him this offseason. The roster is pretty much locked right now outside of maybe one or two bullpen decisions and one bench player spot. The Yankees weren’t good enough to get to the ALDS this season, so the same roster one year older in 2016 certainly isn’t going to get them there unless the pitching stays completely healthy, which isn’t likely given the injury histories of the rotation.

The Mets built their current team through the draft and trades and it took them nine years to get back to the playoffs. I don’t think they’re a team of destiny. They got a Dodgers team with no offense and no bullpen in the NLDS and an inexperienced and young Cubs team in the NLCS and without Daniel Murphy turning into a player he has never been in his career for both series, the Mets might not have played more than four playoff games. They won’t beat the Royals.

https://twitter.com/boredstupid12/status/658444224564719617

I was very, very, very obnoxious to the Red Sox fans I know. My friend Brendan is a huge Red Sox fan and so is his whole family. We spent a lot of our childhood mimicking the Yankees and Red Sox hitters and pitchers of the 90s while playing Wiffle ball and watched nearly every big Yankees-Red Sox game together, including the 1999 ALCS, while playing series in MLB 99 on Playstation along with Tony Hawk’s Pro Skater. I can remember watching Pedro Martinez shut down the Yankees while Roger Clemens got embarrassed in Game 3 of the series, but it was the Yankees and I who got the last laugh with a 4-1 series win. It was Brendan, who I called minutes after Aaron Boone’s 2003 ALCS Game 7 home run only to have him hang up on me. And it was Brendan, who took the bus down from the University of Vermont to watch the 2004 ALCS in my dorm in Boston. For as obnoxious as I was following the 1999 and 2003 ALCS, he matched it after the 2004 ALCS.

MLB • Podcasts

Oct 26, 2015

Podcast: The Clem Report

The Barstool Sports New York blogger joined me to talk about the Mets in the World Series.

The Mets are in the World Series. It’s more than surprising and depressing, but it’s happening and the only thing to do now is root for the Royals and hope the Mets don’t become champions.

The Clem Report of Barstool Sports New York joined me to talk about the Mets’ run to the World Series, what will happen to the New York baseball landscape if the Mets win, why he rooted for the Yankees in the 2009 World Series and how Mets fans have changed their tune when it comes to Daniel Murphy, Curtis Granderson and Terry Collins. We also talked some Giants football since it’s something we agree on.

Blogs • Giants

Oct 26, 2015

Dwayne Harris Saves Giants from Setback

I should have realized the Giants would never make anything easy after they won Super Bowl XLII and then got off to an 11-1 start in 2008 only to win the 1-seed in the NFC

I should have realized the Giants would never make anything easy after they won Super Bowl XLII and then got off to an 11-1 start in 2008 only to win the 1-seed in the NFC and lose in the divisional round at home to the Eagles. I should have realized they would never make anything easy after they won Super Bowl XLVI and then got off to a 6-2 start in 2012 only to finish the season 2-4 and miss the playoffs. And I should have realized it in all the other years when they suffered second-half collapses. But I finally realized it for good after Monday night’s loss to the Eagles.

The Giants should have never been in a game against a Cowboys team without Tony Romo and Dez Bryant and with Matt Cassel. They should have never been in a game in which Cassel threw three interceptions. They should have never needed Dwayne Harris to return a kickoff 100 yards to take the lead for good and they should have never needed Cole Beasley to muff a punt to prevent the Cowboys from potentially tying the game. But that’s who the Giants are and nothing about Sunday’s 27-20 win surprised me.

Since I’m officially done thinking the Giants can easily win a game (or cover a spread) against a banged-up or bad team or create separation in a division that includes the Tony Romo- and Dez Bryant-less Cowboys, the Sam Bradford Eagles and the Kirk Cousins Redskins, I expected the Giants to have a hard time beating Matt Cassel on Sunday. I went into the game knowing that the Cowboys were going to use the running game to eat up the clock and keep the Giants off the field and limit the amount of times Cassel had to go to the air, though apparently, the Giants weren’t ready for this strategy. Darren McFadden rushed for 152 yards, the fourth-highest total of his career and the most since Sept. 25, 2011 and the Cowboys ran for 233 yards as a team.

Eli Manning didn’t do much (13-of-24, 170 yards) and outside of the deep throw to Rueben Randle, which Randle made an Odell Beckham-like one-handed catch on, it was a pretty poor performance from Eli as he was bailed out by his defense. It was the second straight less-than-stellar performance from Eli at a time when he needs to carry this team if they don’t want to miss the postseason for the fourth straight season.

When I saw the Giants’ post-49ers schedule with the Eagles, Cowboys, Saints, Buccaneers and Patriots before their Week 11 bye, I envisioned a 7-2 record entering the Patriots game. The loss to the Eagles made that impossible, but the win over the Cowboys has them at 4-3. The problem is that 7-2 was based off the idea that the Saints were finished and wouldn’t give them their usual Superdome game, but now the 0-3 Saints are suddenly 3-4 and still alive.

I was foolish to think the Giants would make things easy in another down year for the NFC East and run away and hide with the division rather than set up a Week 17 game against the Eagles for a playoff berth. Now the Giants have to take care of business on the road in New Orleans in Tampa Bay before they play the should-be undefeated Patriots in Week 10. It’s not the situation I envisioned, but it’s the one I should have.

The Giants are a .500 team that needs to play just a little bit better than that to reach the postseason this season. They weren’t able to finish a 6-2 start in 2012. They weren’t able to save their season against the Cowboys in 2013. They weren’t able to build off their 3-2 start in 2014. In 2015, they will most likely need to win just nine games to win the NFC East and return to the playoffs. It sounds easy, but nothing with the Giants is ever easy.

Blogs • Giants

Oct 22, 2015

NFL Week 7 Picks

The last few weeks have been about staying afloat and treading water and that’s no way to go with the potential of Black Sunday looming in any week. It’s time to make that huge cushion and create real separation from the .500 mark.

I thought last week might be Black Sunday when it comes to the picks. There seems to be that one week every season that goes horribly wrong and can ruin a picks season for good and my confidence level wasn’t great with last week’s lines and the way the day was going at one point. Even after losses on Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football the week finished at 7-7. But the last few weeks have just been about staying afloat and treading water and that’s no way to go with the potential of Black Sunday looming in any week. It’s time to make that huge cushion and create enough separation from the .500 mark that it won’t be relinquished.

(Home team in caps)

Seattle -6.5 over SAN FRANCISCO
There’s just no way the Seahawks are bad as they have played. There’s no way the team the won the Super Bowl two years ago and the team that was on the 1-yard line with a chance to win the Super Bowl last year should be 2-4 and playing for their season now with the Cardinals emerging as a possible NFC West favorite. The Seahawks are still good and are still one of the elite teams in the NFC. The Seahawks aren’t like the 49ers, who are really the team that has fallen from grace over the last two years since their run of Super Bowl and NFC Championship Game appearances. It’s about time the Seahawks act like the two-time defending NFC champions.

JACKSONVILLE +4 over Buffalo
I hate the games in London. Not because the NFL is taking the sport out of the country and having it played in Europe and depriving teams of home games here, but because the games are always horrible matchups. Jaguars and Bills? Really? It’s almost like the Football Gods are punishing the NFL for having games in London by making sure Tyrod Taylor (not that he’s anything special) and Sammy Watkins don’t play and that EJ Manuel does. How again are the Bills giving 4 in this game? These aren’t the Jaguars of recent years.

ST. LOUIS -6.5 over Cleveland
Outside of their 21-point Week 1 loss to the Jets, the 2-3 Browns have been in all of their games. They beat the Titans by 14, lost to the Raiders by seven, lost to the Chargers by three, beat the Ravens in overtime by three and lost to the Broncos in overtime by three. The Browns are pesky and hard to put away and I have trouble picking against them every week even though they are depriving me of the Johnny Football era.

The Rams, meanwhile, are the hardest team in the NFL not named the Giants to figure out. They beat the Seahawks in overtime, lost to the Redskins by 14, lost to the Steelers by six, beat the Cardinals by two and lost to the Packers by 14. The win over the Seahawks in Week 1 and in Arizona were both impressive, but losing to the Redskins and the mostly-without Big Ben Steelers aren’t. (I give them a pass for losing in Lambeau since every team does.) Coming off a bye and at home, I have a good feeling about the Rams and mainly their defense winning this game.

Pittsburgh +3 over KANSAS CITY
If the Chiefs can’t win this game, they might lose out and finish the season 1-15 after winning in Houston in Week 1.

Houston +5 over MIAMI
The Dolphins were the most hyped team in the NFL this season, and when they just got past the Redskins with a 17-10 win in Week 1, it was written off as the first game of the season. Then they lost to the Jaguars (23-20). Then they were embarrassed by the Bills (41-14). Then they were somewhat embarrassed by the Jets in London (27-14). Then they fired Joe Philbin, had their bye week and routed the Titans 38-10 last week. Now after one good game this season, the Dolphins are suddenly back as a 5-point favorite?

New York Jets +7.5 over NEW ENGLAND
This is the hardest game of the week to pick. I thought the Patriots really cared about going to Indianapolis and sending a message and running the Colts out of their own building for everything that has happened since January, but the Patriots could have cared less about anything other than getting out of there with a win, no matter how close the score was. Now the 5-0 Patriots return home to face the 4-1 Jets with first place in the AFC East on the line for the biggest regular-season game between the two since December 2010 when they were both 9-2 and playing for first place on Monday Night Football.

I have no idea which version of either team will show up. You would think this game would be about the Patriots’ offense vs. the Jets’ defense, but after watching the Colts pick apart the Patriots’ defense and the Jets’ offense explode recently behind Brandon Marshall and Chris Ivory, this game might be about the Jets’ offense. vs. the Patriots’ defense. Either way, 7.5 points is too many. These aren’t the Rex Ryan Jets.

MINNESOTA -1.5 over Detroit
I didn’t think it was possible for Jim Caldwell to surprise me with a decision, but he did that last week in Chicago. With 5:09 left in the fourth quarter and the Lions trailing 31-24 with a fourth-and-4 on the Bears’ 13, Caldwell called for a field goal. The Lions were trailing by a SEVEN POINTS with five minutes left in the game and Caldwell elected for THREE POINTS meaning the Lions would still have to stop the Bears, get the ball back and then score a touchdown anyway since three plus three doesn’t equal seven. It was an incredible decision to watch be made, but Caldwell was bailed out as the Lions did kick the field goal and then get the ball back and score a touchdown (before the Bears went down the field to kick the game-tying field goal to send the game to overtime). It was like watching someone with a huge bet on the table (because Caldwell’s job must certainly be on the line with the way this Lions season has gone) stay with a 15 against the dealer showing a 7 and then having it pay off and thinking they’re a genius. No, you just got lucky, and Jim Caldwell got very, very, very, very, very, very, very lucky.

Atlanta -6 over TENNESSEE
Marcus Mariota is out. Zach Mettenberger is in. The same Zach Mettenberger that is 0-6 as a starter in the NFL.

WASHINGTON -3.5 over Tampa Bay
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Redskins fan or a Buccaneers fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Thank about that.

INDIANAPOLIS -5.5 over New Orleans
The Saints screwed me on Thursday Night Football last week. The Colts screwed me on Sunday Night Football last week. I’m probably going to get screwed again this week, but if it’s going to happen, it will need to be the Outside the Superdome Saints screwing me.

SAN DIEGO -3.5 over OAKLAND
It’s been a long tradition of mine to take the Raiders to cover against the Chargers, but when I see the Chargers schedule and see that they’re 2-4, I see a team about to go on a run. Since the end of the Chargers’ run as the AFC West power, which coincided with Peyton Manning going to the Broncos, the Chargers have been pretty much a .500 team that ends up making a run to either finish 8-8 or 9-7 and either barely make the playoffs or barely miss them. When you see those end-of-the-season clinching possibilities, it’s always the Chargers in the mix either needing three other teams to lose (or tie, which never happens). They don’t make things easy for themselves and losing a home game to the Michael Vick Steelers has put them in a bad position once again. But when you need something to go your way, a home game against the Raiders is a good spot to be in.

NEW YORK GIANTS -3 over Dallas
When the Giants went up 7-0 on the Eagles on the opening drive on Monday Night Football, and Jon Gruden was talking about how much the Giants’ offense has evolved with Ben McAdoo and how it looked exactly like the Packers’ offense with Aaron Rodgers, I started to think maybe just maybe the Giants would finally realize their potential. I thought this could be it. This could be what Eli Manning and the offense has needed to put them in position to win each week and make them a contender each season. They didn’t score again for the rest of the game, Eli threw two horrible interceptions and the Giants lost 27-7. Instead of being 4-2 and having a 1 1/2-game lead in the NFC East, they’re now 3-3 along with the Eagles, who have the tiebreaker over the Giants thanks to that head-to-head result.

The Giants never make it easy. Never. And they never will. I need to actually fully accept the fact and stop trying to talk myself into thinking they will ever be anything more than the most frustrating team in professional sports. But even knowing they could win or lose each week by 21, if they can’t beat the Cowboys at MetLife with Matt Cassel starting at quarterback, I shouldn’t waste anymore time watching this team.

CAROLINA -3 over Philadelphia
I have doubted Carolina all season, didn’t take them seriously as a true undefeated team and thought they would finally be exposed in Seattle. Well, the Panthers are for real. Any team that can go to Seattle and win, and not only win, but put together three touchdown drives of 80 yards or more is a real threat. Don’t let up now, Panthers. The Giants need you this week. I need you this week.

ARIZONA -9 over Baltimore
The fall of the Ravens has been fun to watch, but I feel like I haven’t appreciated it enough. This Monday I will make sure to soak it all in as I watch the Cardinals rout the Ravens, send them to 1-5 and destroy any glimmer of hope they had to going on some sort of run and making the playoffs.

Last week: 7-7-0
Season: 48-40-3

Blogs • Yankees

Oct 21, 2015

2015 MLB Over/Under Wins Results

The Yankees’ season has been over for two weeks, so with the season in the books, let’s look at the results from my over/under predictions.

The baseball season has been over two weeks. Well, the Yankees’ season has been over for two weeks, and to me, that’s the baseball season. So with the season in the books, let’s look at the results from my predictions for 2015 MLB Over/Under Wins.

OVERS

San Francisco Giants – 82 (84-78, WIN)
I said, “I realize this is an odd-numbered year and that means that the Giants are likely to miss the playoffs and then bounce back and win the World Series next year the way they did in 2010, 2012 and 2014,” and the Giants didn’t make the playoffs and therefore won’t win the World Series, but they did win more than 82 games.

The Giants have only won fewer than 82 games once since 2009 and with the core of their World Series-winning team intact, it didn’t make sense that their line was this low. Unless Vegas thought that the departure of Pablo Sandoval was somehow going to make the Giants a bad team in a season in which he was asked to no longer switch-hit and became one of the worst everyday players in the league. (Good luck with that remaining $78 million, Boston!)

New York Yankees – 82.5 (87-75, WIN)
This was the easiest of them all. The last time the Yankees won less than 83 games was 1992 and even for as many question marks as they had in the spring training, they were never going to go 82-80 or worse.

This is the first thing I have written about the Yankees since they lost the wild-card game because I’m still not over them getting into the playoffs and then losing to the second wild card against the one pitcher in the world they couldn’t face. I will get over it eventually.

New York Mets – 83 (90-72, WIN)
Last season Sandy Alderson talked about the Mets winning 90 games and he was a year late. The Mets finished the season with Alderson’s magic number and won the NL East for the first time since 2006 and now they testing my patience as a baseball fan by being as close as they have been to the World Series since 2006.

The Mets can’t make the World Series, but if they happen to, they can’t win. The Blue Jays or Royals have to beat them. They have to. The Mets can’t win the World Series.

San Diego Padres – 84 (76-86, LOSS)
Whoops. I thought the addition of Matt Kemp, Wil Myers, Justin Upton, James Shields and Craig Kimbrel would change the Padres and improve them at least seven games with those five on the team. Instead, the Padres were one game worse than they were as a 77-85 team last season. Kemp did rebound and play in 154 games and had 100 RBIs, but Myers played in just 60, Upton didn’t play to his potential, Shields was OK as the only starter over .500 in the rotation and Kimbrel was good, but not great. The Padres made a lot of big moves and sacrificed a lot to put themselves in a position to compete with the Dodgers and Giants and instead they finished in fourth place in the NL West and ninth place in the NL.

Los Angeles Dodgers – 92.5 (92-70, WIN)
The Dodgers came within one game of covering and I can think of a lot of games that could have been the difference. Between the horrible bullpen and the weak lineup that Andrew Friedman put together, the Dodgers should have been a 100-win team with Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke. Friedman did nothing to change the bullpen in front of Kenley Jansen, built a shaky rotation after the Top 2 and created a lineup that had Justin Turner as its most feared hitter. But yeah, Don Mattingly deserves to be fired. It’s his fault the Dodgers lost to the Mets in five games.

UNDERS

Minnesota Twins – 73 (83-79, LOSS)
The Twins overachieved, and unfortunately for the Yankees, they didn’t overachieve a little more. The Twins missed the second wild card by three games and had they gotten that wild card it would have been the Twins the Yankees faced and not the Astros and most importantly, not Dallas Keuchel. The Yankees would have gotten the chance to play the team they have gone 12-2 in the playoffs against since 2003. I still don’t know how a rotation of Phil Hughes, Kyle Gibson, Mike Pelfrey, Tommy Milone and Ervin Santana won 83 games. But I guess that’s baseball, Suzyn.

Tampa Bay Rays – 79 (80-82, LOSS)
One game. One game! Like the Dodgers, the Rays screwed me by one game and it hurts. There’s not much to say about this one other than that Vegas did a great job making this line. The Rays were the typical Rays with a great rotation and a horrible lineup. If there is any doubt that pitching wins, the Rays are proof since they were able to win 80 games with an offense that scored the second-fewest runs in the AL and still had a plus-2 run differential.

Detroit Tigers – 84 (74-87, WIN)
I think everyone saw this coming except for maybe delusional Tigers fans. The Tigers lost Max Scherzer to free agency and traded Rick Porcello and Justin Verlander started the year on the disabled list and was nowhere near his normal self when he did pitch. Miguel Cabrera missed 43 games and had the lowest home run and RBI totals of his career and Victor Martinez went from finishing second in the 2014 AL MVP voting to showing his age as a 36-year-old .245/.301/.366 hitter. I don’t know when the Tigers will be good again, but it’s not going to be anytime soon.

Cleveland Indians – 85 (81-80, WIN)
The Indians tried to do their annual get-hot-in-the-final-weeks-of-September routine that they have made their thing under Terry Francona. Luckily, they didn’t get hot enough and finished four wins short of pushing this total and five short of losing it for me. The Yankees did their best to make this interesting by going 2-5 against the Indians, and those Indians series came right when the Yankees could have made their move to take the AL East for good.

Boston Red Sox – 86 (78-84, WIN)
The easiest pick in the entire league. The Red Sox had their third last-place finish in four years, fired their general manager, asked their $95 million third baseman to stop being a switch-hitter, told their $88 million left fielder to stop being a left fielder and watched their new $82.5 million starting pitcher pitch to a 4.92 ERA. The Red Sox likely won’t have a real rotation again next season unless they make big a play for either David Price, Zack Greinke or Johnny Cueto, all of which will be 30-plus when the 2016 season and that has been the magic age number the Red Sox have avoided. The only thing that can help the Red Sox at this point is if a team like the Dodgers can save them again and that better not happen.