Keefe To The City

Mar 27, 2019

2019 Yankees Over/Under Predictions

Individual over/under predictions for some of the Yankees for the 2019 season.

Tomorrow there will be Yankees baseball. Real baseball that counts. The offseason is such a grind, but we made it. We’re here!

In honor of the MLB Over/Under Win Total Predictions blog from Monday, I decided to come up with a variety of over/under predictions for the Yankees this season.

Gary Sanchez: 13.5 passed balls
Last season, Gary Sanchez led the majors with 18 passed balls despite only catching 76 games, 74 which were starts and 67 which were complete games. The year before, he led the league with 16 passed balls in 104 games caught, 99 which were starts and 91 which were complete games. Somehow, Sanchez increased his passed ball total despite appearing in 28 last games. No, that’s not ideal.

On a scale of 1-10, I care about Sanchez’s passed balls a 4, and I realize that’s definitely on the low end and might be the lowest anyone is willing to go there. There are people, like Michael Kay, who are definitely at or near a 10, but not me. Considering Sanchez’s arm and framing abilities, his passed balls are much less of an issue than they are made out to be. I’m more concerned with Sanchez returning to his offensive form, being the .284/.354/.568 hitter he was in 2016 and 2017 than I am about him blocking pitches from Masahiro Tanaka in the dirt.

But I’m optimistic when it comes to Sanchez and think he will be better behind the plate in 2019, as long as he isn’t struggling offensively since I believed that affected his defensive work either. It would be nice to see him less, let’s say lazy, when he’s got his gear on and not letting fastballs go by him to advance base runners. Sanchez has to be better in 2019. I can’t go another season of listening to idiots call for Austin Romine to be the team’s starting catcher. Under.

Miguel Andujar: .299 batting average
Like Sanchez’s passed balls, I’m not overly concerned with Miguel Andujar’s defense at third base. Last season, he was a 23-year-old in his first full season in the league. Defensive issues should expected. As long as there is progress and improvement in the field, this should be a non-issue in 2019. Unfortunately, the first time he boots a ball or bounces an errant throw to first, the mainstream media will eat it up.

When you finish second in AL Rookie of the Year voting and rack up 47 doubles and 76 extra-base hits, drive in 92 runs from the bottom of the order and bat .297, you’re allowed to be less-than-stellar in the field, in my book.

Andujar no longer has to live with the idea Manny Machado will be a Yankee at some point and take his position and force him to the outfield or first base. The Yankees proved they do believe in him and it wasn’t just a lie to buy them time until they could sign Machado, they really do believe in him. And so do I.

For a long time, having a .300 hitter on the Yankees wasn’t unusual, considering they had Derek Jeter for two decades and during his years also had some pretty good players. But since Jeter aged and Robinson Cano left, it’s been a while since you could look at the big screen in center field at the Stadium and see .300 next to a Yankee late in the season. Andujar’s rookie season and his contact ability are the perfect combination to believe that will change. Over.

Aaron Hicks: 145 games played
Everything about the Aaron Hicks contract extension is great except that he could be playing center field for the Yankees as a 36-year-old in 2026, and I’m not about to go back to 2013-16. The good news is if he sucks then or really at any point in this deal, it’s not an overwhelming amount of money the Yankees owe him or would have to eat. At $10 million per season for a starting center fielder in this center field climate, it might be the best contract the Yankees have ever had on their payroll.

The biggest problem with Hicks is that he can’t stay healthy, which he is showing once again as he won’t be ready for Opening Day and probably not for more than a week into the regular season. Hicks needs to find a way to avoid his one to two injured list stints per seasons. It’s the last piece of the puzzle for a player who saved his career and was awarded life-changing money.

Hicks’s 137 games played last season were the most of his career, and he still missed time due to injury. He’s not going to play in every game this season since no one does that anymore, and certainly not a Yankee, and because he will miss at least the first few series of the season. Given his past and the fact he will already be dipping into his cushion on this number, I don’t think he will get there. Under.

Gleyber Torres: 25 home runs
The Yankees have Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton and their best player in 2019 and possibly beyond might be Gleyber Torres. The 22-year-old middle infielder was an All-Star in his first season, carrying the Yankees for the first few weeks of his arrival before hitting a wall in the dog days of the season.

Torres finished third in the AL Rookie of the Year of voting behind Shohei Otani and Miguel Andujar though he would have won it seemingly any other year than 2018. Despite missing the beginning of the season to get more at-bats in Triple-A (and so the Yankees could circumvent the service time calendar) and a few weeks around the All-Star break, Torres still hit .271/.340/.480 with 24 home runs as a 21-year-old. He was reportedly asked for in every deal Brian Cashman tried to make or did make, and was deemed “untouchable”, even if the Yankees supposedly don’t believe in such a word, and rightfully so.

As excited as I am for this Yankees season and the first season in what was always expected to be the first season of this window of opportunity, I’m especially excited to see how Torres grows and adjusts to a league that will certainly have adjusted to him after what he did last year. A sophomore slump for Torres? I don’t see it. Over.

James Paxton: 160 1/3 innings
When you look at James Paxton’s numbers, you see a pitcher with not a lot of miles on his arm and just 582 1/3 innings as a now 30-year-old. The reason there isn’t a lot of miles on his arm is because there’s other problems with his arm, and his shoulder and his back, and so on.

Did I want the Yankees to trade for James Paxton? Eh. I was hoping if Justus Sheffield were to be traded he would be traded in a deal for a better starting pitching option, but I have to assume Paxton was the best option.

In theory, Paxton is a great fit as a power left-hander pitching half of his games in Yankee. The problem is Paxton’s career high for starts is 28 and innings is 160 1/3, and they both came last season. It would be a miracle if Paxton were to get through the 2019 unscathed to start 32 times and give the Yankees 200 innings. Until he has a season in which he’s able to avoid the injured list even once, it’s hard to believe it will happen. Under.

Aaron Judge: 118.5 walks
The number most people care about when it comes to Aaron Judge is home runs. and rightfully so. But after that it should be walks.

Judge led the league with 127 walks in 2017 and was on a 110-walk pace last season if not for the broken wrist (he ended up with 76). When Judge is getting his walks, you know he’s going right, and he’s setting the table for the guys behind him and tiring the pitcher on the mound for Giancarlo Stanton and Gary Sanchez.

If were up to me, I would bat Judge leadoff. I get that Aaron Hicks is a solid leadoff candidate, but he’s not Judge. Judge has a .409 on-base percentage over the last two seasons and seems to always be in full counts. He’s not going to give away an at-bat or swing at the first pitch and ground out to short. I want the best hitter on the team to get the most at-bats over the course of a season and the best hitter on the team is Judge. It’s certainly not Brett Gardner. Over.

Masahiro Tanaka: 13.5 wins
Masahiro Tanaka has never thrown 200 innings in the regular season for the Yankees. He came within one out (199 2/3 innings) in 2016, but aside from that his best season was 178 1/3 in 2017.

Another thing Tanaka hasn’t done is win more than 14 games. He’s won 13, 12, 14, 13 and 12. And while I’m not big on pitcher’s win totals since it’s more of a team effort and a lot more is needed that the pitcher simply going at least five innings and pitching well, it’s definitely shocking Tanaka has been unable to reach even 15 wins in what has been a very good career in the majors (64-34 with a 3.59 ERA in 132 starts).

I expect a big season out of Tanaka. Why? Well, the Yankees need him to have a big season. With Luis Severino out for at least the first month of the season, James Paxton coming off a career high in innings last season with 160 1/3, which is worrisome that that’s his high and also that he’s coming off of it given his injury history and CC Sabathia starting the season on the injured list and knowing he will only pitch 150-160 innings at most. J.A. Happ might be the Yankees’ most reliable starting pitcher at this time, and he’s a 36-year-old, who relies heavily on a 92-mph fastball, and the last time we saw him the Red Sox were having their way with him at Fenway Park.

Tanaka needs to give the Yankees quality starts (and starts period), especially at the beginning of the season with two-thirds of the rotation out. If he does that, with this offense, against the crap teams they will see in April, Tanaka will be well on his way to crushing this win total. Over.

Brett Gardner: .340 on-base percentage
Brett Gardner was pretty much the Yankees’ everyday leadoff hitter through the end of August. Sure, there were a few games sprinkled in where he didn’t hit at the top of the order, but it wasn’t until September when he became the team’s No. 9 hitter … when he played.

Gardner looked finish last season. He finished at .236/.322/.368, which are catcher-like numbers for a guy who was given the chance at the most at-bats by the team for the first five months of the season. I didn’t want Gardner back in 2019 and wanted the team to go in a different direction like Michael Brantley, who the Astros signed, and will undoubtedly have a big hit or hits against the Yankees in the postseason. Because Clint Frazier would need time to get back to playing baseball every day after losing most of the 2018 season, the Yankees couldn’t go into 2019 thinking he would be a full-time Major Leaguer. So they brought Gardner back on a one-year, $7.5 million deal, thinking his veteran leadership and clubhouse presence were needed and that his sharp decline last season wasn’t indicative of what he has left in the tank.

Gardner was supposed to be part of an outfield rotation, which would limit his playing time and save his legs over the course of 162 games. But now with Hicks out, Gardner is the team’s starting center fielder, and likely leadoff hitter since Aaron Boone is petrified of having Aaron Judge lead off and giving the most at-bats to his team’s best hitter.

Gardner is no longer a small piece to the puzzle and role player on the 2019 Yankees. At least for the beginning of the season, the team needs him to be pre-2018 Brett Gardner. I just don’t see that happening. Under.

Bullpen: 1.5 losses with a lead after six innings
Once again, the bullpen is the strength of the Yankees. With a healthy Dellin Betances, the bullpen also boasts Aroldis Chapman, Zack Britton, Adam Ottavino and Chad Green. No other bullpen in the league could lose David Robertson and get better, but the Yankees might have (even if I wanted the Yankees to bring Robertson back). Jonathan Holder would be a Top 3 reliever on most teams in the majors, but on the Yankees he’s at best sixth.

Last season, the Yankees hadn’t lost a game all season in which they led after eight innings until the Sunday Night Baseball disaster in Boston to cap off the four-day sweep at the hands of the Red Sox and officially take the Yankees out of the division race. A four-plus month run of not losing late games is an impressive feat, but this year I’m upping the ante.

I’m taking the under on this one and giving myself a one-game cushion for the bullpen to blow a lead with nine outs to get. (The number was initially 1, but I adjusted it due to Betances’ early-season absence.) That’s how good I think this bullpen will be. Under.

Giancarlo Stanton: 200 strikeouts
Giancarlo Stanton was OK in his first season as Yankee. Yes, a .266/.343/.509 hitter with 38 home runs and 100 RBIs was just OK.

Stanton was bad with runners in scoring position (.241/.322/.379) and pretty much just bad with anyone on base (.236/.315/.429). His problems were magnified at the Stadium since he was a .229/.311/.468 hitter at home, opposed to a .300/.374/.547 hitter on the road.

I can count Stanton’s big hits from 2018 on one hand, and possibly even have a couple fingers left over. Opening Day in Toronto, his two home run game against Dallas Keuchel and his walk-off home run at the Stadium against the Mariners. That’s it? I remember his 2018 season for what he didn’t do, which was anything with runners on in a truly big moment. He was nowhere to be found in the wild-card game until the game was out of reach, and then he hit a 443-foot home run, which was the hardest postseason home run hit in the Statcast era, and in the ALDS he couldn’t have been worse, going 4-for-18 with four singles and leaving a small village on base in the series.

Here are the most common excuses from the Stanton fan club heard last season:

1. He’s with a new organization
2. He’s in a new league and has to learn new pitchers
3. He’s playing his home games in colder weather at the beginning and end of the season
4. He needs to get acclimated and adjusted to living in a new city

Maybe some or all of those are true, but they are no longer valid. Not in Year 2, not in 2019. Unfortunately, we can’t go back and redo what happened in October, we only know it can’t happen again. As a Marlin, Stanton would supposedly go to Europe during the MLB postseason since it was too painful to watch. Well, he better change his approach at the plate and with runners on or he’s going to being going to Europe a lot during the World Series as a Yankee. Under.

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My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!

Blogs • MLB

Mar 25, 2019

2019 MLB Over/Under Win Total Predictions

With baseball back this week, it’s time for the 2019 over/under win total predictions. Five overs and five unders for the season.

Baseball is three days away! Three days! Sure, we got two “regular-season games” with the A’s and Mariners that I sadly woke up to watch last week, but those didn’t feel like real games, and the A’s certainly did pitch like they were real games. Real baseball begins on Thursday when the entire league plays.

With baseball back this week, it’s time for the 2019 over/under win total predictions. Five overs and five unders for the season.

(Last season’s win total in parentheses)

OVERS

NEW YORK YANKEES, 96.5 (100)
On paper, the Yankees are the best team in baseball. Unfortunately, “on paper” doesn’t win the World Series and starting the season with Luis Severino, CC Sabathia, Dellin Betances and Aaron Hicks all unavailable, and Didi Gregorius out until at least midseason isn’t exactly helpful to exceeding a win total of 96.5. Thankfully, the majority of Major League Baseball isn’t trying to win and getting back near 100 wins won’t be that hard.

Outside of the Yankees, Red Sox, Indians, Astros and maybe two other American League teams, the AL is more top heavy in 2019 than it was in 2018 when six teams lost 89 games or more. You can pencil in the Yankees, Red Sox, Indians and Astros for the playoffs right now, and whichever team is “lucky” enough to clinch the second wild card will have to play at Yankee Stadium or Fenway Park for the one-game playoff. The AL has become predictable.

Are the Yankees going to go on the kind of historical run they want on from the end of April until the end of the June? No. But I also don’t see them being a barely-above-.500 team from the end of June on the way they were last season. Thanks to their incredibly easy schedule to open the first three-plus weeks of the season, for once, the Yankees can get off to a good start and separate themselves from the .500 mark for good as early as the opening series.

CHICAGO CUBS, 88 (95)
There is this idea the Cubs are trending in the wrong direction and won’t be good for some reason in 2019. Listen, I don’t like the Cubs and would like nothing more than for them to be a disaster this season, but it’s just not realistic. The Brewers will once again be right there contending for the NL Central and the Cardinals and Reds made vast improvements, but it’s still the Cubs’ division to lose, just like it was last year until … they lost it.

The Cubs still have arguably the deepest lineup in the NL with three potential MVP-type candidates in it and when Jose Quintana is your No. 5 starter, you have more than enough starting pitching. The Cubs let the entire offseason pass them by without doing anything to enhance their team, but even so, it’s still a contending roster, and it’s not a seven-less-wins-than-last-season roster.

HOUSTON ASTROS, 96.5 (103)
Another AL power, another over. The Astros won 103 games last year and 101 games the year before. Despite Dallas Keuchel in his prime no longer being in their rotation (at least for now), I think the Astros might actually be better this season than they were the last two. They’re certainly not 6.5 wins worse.

The Astros’ biggest problem (which clearly wasn’t much of a problem after winning the World Series in 2017 and reaching the ALCS in 2018) was that their lineup wasn’t long. The addition of Michael Brantley — a player I wanted the Yankees to sign instead of Brett Gardner — gives them that length as they can now stack George Springer, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa and Brantley in some order one through five. That’s a very scary one through five.

The rotation is weaker than season’s past with Keuchel and Charlie Morton essentially being replaced by Wade Miley, Brad Peacock and Colin McHugh, but that’s not a bad backend of the rotation, and the Astros have proven the last two years they aren’t scared to go out and add payroll or make a big move at the deadline.

I would be shocked if the World Series was won by a team other than the Astros, Yankees or Red Sox. One of the three is getting there, it’s just a matter of not having a bad series against whatever mediocrity comes out of the National League.

LOS ANGELES ANGELS, 83.5 (80)
It’s hard to find overs to pick and believe in when nearly all of baseball seems to be trying not to win, or at least not investing in winning. The Angels are my pick for the second wild card and while I don’t trust them, I think they will be at least a .500 team in 2019. I could see them being a 90-win team this season, which is enough to eclipse their number.

The Angels have a sneaky good lineup led by the $430 million man and then a rotation full of No. 3 and No. 4 starters (Tyler Skaggs, Andrew Heaney, Matt Harvey, Trevor Cahill) and a bullpen of inconsistent relievers. It’s not a championship-constructed roster, but it’s good enough to be two games over .500.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES, 89.5 (80)
I hate this pick, I really do. I don’t want the Phillies to do well, but unfortunately, one team in the NL East is going to win 90 games and I think the Phillies have the best chance to do it. My Phillies pick is more of a process of elimination pick.

The Mets? I’m not about to ever back the Mets to meet or exceed expectations even if their number is four wins lower (85.5). The Nationals? They had trouble scoring runs and winning games with the face of their franchise. I’m not sure how an 82-win team gets an 88.5 number when their biggest addition was one-year-wonder Patrick Corbin. The Braves? They are the biggest threat to the Phillies in the division, especially since they won 90 games last season, but a lot has changed in the NL East since last season.

UNDERS

BALTIMORE ORIOLES, 58.5 (47)
The Orioles won 47 games last season. 47! And that was with a half season of Manny Machado playing at an MVP level. This season, they won’t have Machado at all and will have the worst roster top to bottom in the league, much worse than last season’s roster, which won 47 games. If this number were at least year’s 47 it would be too high. At 58.5 it’s outrageous.

I would write more, but nothing more needs to be said about a team potentially set up to be the worst team in the history of Major League Baseball.

BOSTON RED SOX, 94.5 (108)
That’s right. I’m putting the Red Sox here. The Red Sox aren’t winning 108 games again. That’s a guarantee. Or unless Chris Sale’s shoulder isn’t right or David Price reverts back to crappy David Price or Nathan Eovaldi turns into the Nathan Eovaldi Yankees fans know.

Outside of a rotation that’s banking on Chris Sale’s shoulder to continue to hold up, David Price to avoid falling off again, Rick Porcello and Eduardo Rodriguez to be consistent and Nathan Eovaldi to not turn back into the Nathan Eovaldi that caused every team until the Red Sox to give up on him, the Red Sox’ biggest question is their bullpen. Their ownership basically said to the fan base “We won the World Series, we’re reeling in the spending” as they chose not to bring back Craig Kimbrel and are going with a bullpen so shaky that their starting pitching became their non-closing relief options in the playoffs. That can work over the course of a month in the postseason, however, it’s a recipe for disaster over the course of six months in the regular season.

But like I said in the write-up about the Yankees, the AL is about four teams and then everyone else, and the Red Sox get to play the same schedule as the Yankees and will once again flirt with a high win total. I just don’t think they’ll get there.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX, 74 (62)
I feel the least confident about this pick out of all the unders I selected, only because the White Sox are headed in the right direction and nearly there, while the other clubs have a ways to go. Signing Manny Machado would have helped greatly, as he stood them up, showing he could care less if his family members and friends in Yonder Alonso and Jon Jay are now on the team. The reason I’m picking the White Sox as they inch closer and closer to baseball relevancy is that for them to increase their win total by 12 from last season, a lot has to happen. A lot.

The White Sox’ issue is plate discipline as they have a hard time getting on base. Here is their list of starting players in 2019 and their 2018 on-base percentages:

C: Wellington Castillo, .304
1B: Jose Abreu, .325
2B: Yolmer Sanchez, .306
3B: Yoan Moncada, .315
SS: Tim Anderson, .281
LF: Daniel Palka, .294
CF: Adam Engel, .279
RF: Jon Jay (not on White Sox last season), .330
DH: Yonder Alonso (not on White Sox last season), .317

When your best on-base guy is Jay, that’s a big problem. When your best on-base guy only gets on at a .330 clip, that’s a bigger problem.

Maybe guys like Anderson and Engel and Moncada will break out and prove their viable everyday players in the majors. And maybe Carlos Rodon and Reynaldo Lopez will stay healthy and continue in the right direction and maybe Lucas Giolito will finally live up to his former No. 1 prospect status. That’s a lot that has to happen, and if it doesn’t happen before the trade deadline, Abreu will be gone as an impending free agent, and reaching 74 wins will become even harder.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS, 69.5 (58)
The Royals did nothing to improve in the offseason, they actually got worse, and yet, their number is 11 wins higher this season. Everything about them says “Last place in the AL Central” and that was with Salvador Perez and now Perez is out for the season, needing Tommy John surgery.

Royals fans can’t be too upset though. They reached the World Series in back-to-back seasons, winning it in 2015 and after 30 years of being awful, this October will only have been four since they destroyed the Mets. I think Royals fans are OK with waiting at least another decade before they start to complain about the state of their team.

TORONTO BLUE JAYS, 74.5 (73)
The Blue Jays are now in complete rebuild mode after having missed out on their championship window. First, they let Jose Bautista leave as a free agent and then Edwin Encarnacion and then Josh Donaldson and then they released Troy Tulowitzki, essentially now paying him to play for the Yankees. The heart of their order from their 2015 and 2016 ALCS appearances is gone and any valuable assets they have left between now and the trade deadline this season will be gone too.

The Blue Jays are gong to be bad in 2019. After the trade deadline, they are going to be very, very bad.

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My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!

Blogs • Monday Mail

Mar 25, 2019

Monday Mail: March 25, 2019

Is Aaron Hicks’ contract a bargain? Will Dellin Betances and Didi Gregorius receive extensions? Should the Yankees have signed Manny Machado or Bryce Harper? This week’s Monday Mail.

We made it! We made it through the 59-day winter gauntlet that makes up January and February and then the long six-week-or-so grind that is spring training. We are in the week with actual baseball and just three days away from first pitch.

This week’s questions are Yankees heavy with the hype and anticipation of the second straight season with championship expectations. The 2019 Yankees are set up to be the best Yankees team since their last World Series title and appearance 10 years ago, and we are very close to them finally playing.

Email your questions to KeefeToTheCity@gmail.com or engage on the Keefe To The City Facebook page or on Twitter to be included in the next Monday Mail.

Why would you want Manny Machado on the Yankees? I’m thanking God he didn’t sign with them. – Max
I have written too much about a player who isn’t even a Yankee (like here and here and here), so let’s break this down in the simplest way possible:

1. Manny Machado is 26 years old (younger than Aaron Judge), and historically speaking, he most likely hasn’t even entered his prime yet.

2. He plays BOTH shortstop and third base and is a two-time Gold Glove winner at third.

3. He’s a career .282/.335/.487 hitter, who has averaged 31 home runs and 90 RBIs per season.

4. He’s coming off career highs in games played (162), home runs (37), RBIs (107), batting average (.297), on-base percentage (.367), slugging percentage (.538) and OPS (.905).

5. Outside of a knee injury in 2014, he has played in 156, 162, 157, 156 and 162 games in his full Major League seasons.

6. All he would have cost is money. MONEY. The thing the Yankees used to use to their advantage to create the best team possible. No prospects, no young, cheap players. Just MONEY.

7. On top of all this, he has played 860 of his 926 career regular-season games in the AL East, knows the pitchers and has made it clear he absolutely hates the Red Sox.

I’m not sure how anyone could look at those facts and not want Manny Machado on the Yankees. Because he made the comment about not running hard on every routine ground ball last season? I’m OK with someone not sprinting it down the line on a guaranteed out when they are playing Gold Glove defense and hitting 37 home runs with a .905 OPS.

Right now, the Yankees think Troy Tulowitzki is going to be their shortstop until Didi Gregorius returns. The same Tulowitzki who didn’t play a game in 2018, wasn’t good in 2017 and hasn’t been good for some time now. And if Tulowitzki isn’t up to it, then the middle infield will be Gleyber Torres and DJ LeMahieu and then Tyler Wade at some point.

What happens if Miguel Andujar never improves defensively at third base or doesn’t progress the way everyone just expects him to? What happens if Didi Gregorius isn’t the same player when he returns from Tommy John surgery, or what if Gregorius leaves via free agency after this season? Then what is the Yankees’ middle infield of the future?

Still thanking God the Yankees didn’t sign Machado?

If we bench Aaron Hicks or eat the last two years of his contract, who cares? He’s a Top 10 center fielder and didn’t get overpaid. – AJ
I agree.

I have written, tweeted and said a lot of negative things about Aaron Hicks since he first became a Yankee. Was I wrong? Not completely. Hicks became a very good Major League player in 2017 and continued to be one in 2018. Prior to that though, he was the same-old first-round bust who couldn’t put it all together.

I formally apologized to Hicks in the past on Twitter and since I will now be watching him through 2025 (and possibly even 2026 if the Yankees pick up his club option that season) I think it’s time I come to accept him. Do I think investing in a 29-year-old center fielder for the next seven seasons is the best decision? No. But like AJ said, at $10 million per season, if he gets benched five, six or seven years from now, or needs to be released, it’s not a contract that will “fake hurt the Yankees. (I say “fake hurt” because no contract hurts the Yankees no matter what ownership wants you to believe.)

The biggest problem with Hicks is that he can’t stay healthy, which he is showing once again as he won’t be ready for Opening Day and probably not for more than a week into the regular season. If Hicks can give the Yankees what he did when he was actually on the field in 2017 and in 2018 then this deal will be an all-time bargain. If he can’t, well, at that number, it will still be a bargain.

I’d probably go for four years, $40 million for Dellin Betances. Didi Gregorius will probably get something around six years, $100 million. – Christopher

The Yankees finally stopped their idiotic “no extension” policy and gave both Luis Severino (four years, $40 million) and Aaron Hicks (seven years, $70 million) extensions. Next up: Dellin Betances.

There were already reports the Yankees were discussing an extension with Betances and then his shoulder issue happened, and you can’t help but feel bad for the guy. He will be a free agent at the end of the season and he has been the best reliever in all of baseball over the last five years, which includes his disastrous end to the 2017 season. Over the last five seasons, Betances has appeared in 349 games, pitching 373 1/3 innings with 607 strikeouts, a 2.22 ERA and 1.108 WHIP, allowing just 5.3 hits-per-nine innings with an astounding 14.6 strikeouts-per-nine. Absolutely ridiculous numbers. Unfortunately, the shoulder problem came up at the worst possible time, both for the 2019 Yankees bullpen and for Betances’ future earnings.

Betances has been one of, if not my favorite Yankee since Number 2 retired and as a native New Yorker and homegrown prospect who has always said and done the right things, it’s hard not to like him (unless you’re Randy Levine). As long as this shoulder problem does turn out to be a minor thing and he returns to pitch like he always has (minus the end of the 2017 season), extend him!

Didi Gregorius is a little trickier. He’ll most likely return sometime this summer and be the productive offensive and defensive player he’s always been (outside of 2015) for the Yankees. But it’s not certain. There’s a chance Gregorius isn’t the same player he was prior to Tommy John surgery and I would think the Yankees will wait to see how he performs before extending him.

It’s also not a necessity to extend Gregorius. Yes, he’s a fan favorite, outstanding defender and one of two reliable left-handed bats in the lineup. But the Yankees have Gleyber Torres for at least six more seasons and have DJ LeMahieu for this season and next. It’s not impossible to see the Yankees let Gregorius leave as a free agent if they aren’t able to extend him to a team-friendly deal and if he wants and thinks he can get more on the open market. Gregorius will be 30 for the 2020 season and if he’s looking for a five- or six-year deal, I don’t know that the Yankees will be interested in that.

Everyone knows Bryce Harper is only good for home runs. Sure, he’s a superstar, so he got paid. The Yankees are waiting on Mike Trout, if they don’t sign Trout then I think there is an issue of being cheap, especially if the Red Sox win back-to-back World Series titles. – Bill

While Bryce Harper isn’t “only good for home runs”, if he were, that’s not exactly a knock. That’s the best thing to be good for. Home runs equal runs. Runs equal wins. Wins equal playoffs. Playoffs equal chance to win championships.

Last season, Harper batted .249/.393/.496 with 34 home runs and 100 RBIs, while scoring 103 runs and walking a Major League-leading 130 times. He’s a six-time All-Star in seven seasons with an NL MVP to his name and a career .900 OPS. If there is one thing Harper is “only good for”, it’s getting on base, and that’s the most important thing a hitter can do.

The question becomes, is Harper worth a 13-year, $330 million contract? If a 25-year-old Giancarlo Stanton was worth 13 years and $325 million then you could say a 26-year-old Harper is a bargain at a $330 million. Prior to to the offseason, I thought Harper would get at least $400 million, so for him to get only $330 million is a bit shocking.

It’s concerning the Yankees have a young core of players making relatively no money between Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar, and you can even throw in Aaron Hicks, and yet, they didn’t sign either 26-year-old generational star this offseason. Back in 2016, it seemed inevitable the Yankees would sign one if not two of Harper and Machado, and yet they signed neither, and that was before they hit on every top prospect of theirs. The Yankees couldn’t have asked for a better situation going into this offseason with a cheap, young core and having reset their luxury tax, and they failed to sign either of the best two position players (Harper and Machado) and the best (Patrick Corbin).

This question came in before Mike Trout signed his $430 million extension with the Angels, but if he hadn’t, if you think the Hal Steinbrenner Yankees were going to suddenly change course two years from now and sign a 29-year-old Trout when they wouldn’t sign a 26-year-old Harper or a 26-year-old Machado, well, you’re sadly mistaken.

As for the possibility of the Red Sox winning back-to-back World Series titles mattering, the Yankees failed to sign any of the Top 3 free agents after the Red Sox won 108 games, beat the Yankees for the division and then flat-out embarrassed them in the ALDS on their way to a championship.

Want to be included in the next Monday Mail? Email your questions to KeefeToTheCity@gmail.com or engage on the Keefe To The City Facebook page or on Twitter.

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My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!

Blogs • KTTC Classics • Yankees

Mar 14, 2019

The NL MVP Is a Yankee: An Oral History of the Giancarlo Stanton Trade

Let’s go back to December 2017 for an oral history of the trade which landed the Yankees the reigning NL MVP.

Leading the 2017 ALCS 3-2, the Yankees needed a win in either Game 6 or Game 7 to advance to the World Series for the first time in eight years. Instead, the Yankees lost both games in Houston, scoring just one run over 18 innings and the team’s deepest postseason run since their last championship in 2009 ended.

The 2017 Yankees arrived ahead of schedule. After a disappointing 2016 season led to the dismissal of every tradable asset at the deadline, the team was expected to be a non-factor in the AL East and postseason picture for at least the next two seasons. But the team’s 91 regular-season wins, wild-card win, incredible comeback against the 102-win Indians in the ALDS and seven-game series against the eventual champion Astros in the ALCS changed the perception of the franchise. The so-called “rebuild” took roughly the last two months of 2016 and the Yankees were back to being the Yankees.

I had expected the window of opportunity for these Yankees to begin in 2019 and now they were providing two extra years of unexpected contention. I couldn’t be upset with the way the 2017 ended because all I could think about was 2018 and beyond. I was ecstatic about 2018 and that was with Jacoby Ellsbury, Chase Headley and Starlin Castro set to return to the team.

Meanwhile, the new ownership group in Miami was ready to trade everyone and anyone to cut payroll and hit the reset button on the franchise. Suddenly, NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton, who was coming off a 59-home run season, was available. He had reportedly given the Marlins front office a list of four teams he would waive his no-trade clause for and those four teams happened to the final four teams in the 2017 postseason: the Yankees, Astros, Dodgers and Cubs.

On Dec. 11, 2017, the Yankees landed Stanton in a surprise move that sent Castro to Miami. The following day Headley was traded was traded to San Diego. The Yankees had come within one game of the World Series and had essentially just turned Castro and Headley into Giancarlo Stanton and top prospects Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar waiting for their to turn to join the young core full time. The last time I had been this excited about the Yankees was when Mariano Rivera induced a ground ball off the bat of Shane Victorino to clinch the 2009 World Series.

Let’s go back to December 2017 for an oral history of the trade which landed the Yankees the reigning NL MVP with quotes from the prominent people involved in the actual deal.

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Derek Jeter, Marlins CEO and minority owner/Yankees legend: This is an organization that’s been losing money for quite some time, so we have to turn it around. How we do that? It’s not clear. It’s easy to point the finger at [Giancarlo Stanton] because he makes the most money, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that that’s the move that’s going to be made.

Brian Cashman, Yankees senior vice president and general manager: I put my toe in the water down at the GM meetings. During the Ohtani sweepstakes, we needed to keep the DH spot open for the two-way player in the event that he came our way, but despite that, I did engage the Marlins a little bit in the GM meetings about a month ago.

Derek Jeter: Michael Hill has been in contact with [Stanton]. Michael has spoken with him. That’s Michael’s job. He’s the president of baseball ops, so he has spoken to him. It’s not like it’s radio silence coming from the organization. If you get into the practice of reaching out to every time there is a rumor to every player, you’d be spending 95 percent of your time on the phone trying to dispel rumors.

Michael Hill, Marlins president of baseball operations: The one thing I know, and Giancarlo has said as well, is that there was complete transparency, and if anything, overcommuncation as we went through the process with him. So he was fully aware of what was going on every step of the way. But we knew, ultimately, that it was his call. He had the no-trade and it was said to him face-to-face that ‘We understand that you have a no-trade and you if to choose to not waive it, we are prepared to have you here and you to be a Miami Marlin for the duration of your contract.’

Giancarlo Stanton, Yankees outfielder: We had a meeting, yes. We spoke about the direction of the team. I wanted us to go forward and have an advance with the pitching staff. I thought our lineup was legit and we needed help with our pitchers. We needed to add rather than subtract. The way they wanted to go was subtract, so I let it be known I didn’t want to be part of another rebuild, another losing season, and that’s almost a guaranteed losing season taking away what I thought was a great lineup.

Michael Hill: But at the same time, he understood that there were changes that needed to be made. We didn’t have a deep minor-league system. We weren’t in a position to compete because we just didn’t have enough depth. Changes needed to be made and we were open and honest with him. He was open and honest that he didn’t want to be a part of it.

Giancarlo Stanton: I gave my list of teams prior to and they went to San Francisco and the Cardinals and struck deals with them.

Brian Cashman: With certain parameters needing to be met with the Marlins it didn’t seem like it was something that was viable from their perspective. They had better deals from their assessment elsewhere. I don’t know what those deals were, so that’s how it led to the Giants and the Cardinals having deals in place and then trying to convince Stanton to waive it to go those routes.

Giancarlo Stanton: I didn’t want to be part of a rebuild. I gave my list of teams prior to and they went to San Francisco and the Cardinals and struck deals with them. I was open to listening to them, but those were not my teams and those are great people they were great meetings and great organization and great culture there but it just wasn’t the fit for me.

Michael Hill: Whenever you’re making a trade when a full no-trade is involved there are going to be challenges.

Brian Cashman: I stayed engaged as of Wednesday of last week. I thought there was no chance of anything happening and actually wished the Marlins luck, Michael hill, specifically, the GM, my counterpart, and (said) ‘Let’s talk about anything else you have on your roster.’

Michael Hill: Ultimately, it happened where one of the teams where he wanted to go, on the third try, we were able to come to an agreement and get him moved.

Brian Cashman: And then he reengaged Thursday of last week about 4 in the afternoon maybe. and then we worked the rest of the evening deep into the night. him rejecting my ideas, me rejecting his until we finally settled. but it was on Thursday by him reengaging me more along the parameters that we had in place to make it fit that I was like ‘Wow this might really have a chance here.’ And that night, Thursday night, we had an agreement.

Hal Steinbrenner, Yankees managing general partner: It happened fairly quickly. I think Cash has been working on this for a week or two, but there’s been ups and downs along the way … really the last three or four days has been pretty hectic.

Michael Hill: I’m very realistic. I understand that when you have a no-trade in place that you’re at the mercy of the player and ultimately I think that was the case because we had two other potential trades in place for him that he didn’t want to go to those two places. So it was incumbent to try to give him where he wanted to go or to welcome him back. It works out where we were able to make a deal with the Yankees.

Brian Cashman: Friday we dotted the i’s and crossed the t’s, got baseball involved, Saturday the physical in Tampa.

The Yankees sent Starlin Castro and minor-league players Jose Devers and Jorge Guzman to the Marlins. The Marlins agreed to pay $30 million ($3 million per years for the 10 years) to the Yankees if Stanton doesn’t opt out of the contract after the 2020 season.

Giancarlo Stanton: This is what I’ve always wanted. This is what I’ve dreamed of. You always want to be in competitive games where they mean something and your performance means something to the team and the city. It’s going to be a fun challenge and I’m looking forward to it.

Brian Cashman: I want to be the New York Yankees again and that’s a team that you can count on competing for a world championship in the upcoming season.

Derek Jeter: This was the best move and the best deal for the organization. It gives us flexibility. We’re going to invest in building this organization the right way.

Michael Hill: The no-trade was a challenge, but it was one where thankfully we were able to work it out and we got good players back in return.

Derek Jeter: We’re not going to turn this organization around overnight. It’s going to take some time.

Brian Cashman: There’s trepidation on every decision I make. It doesn’t matter, even the ones right now we get praised at for working out and stuff. Every move I make, you always get buyer’s remorse. I think it’s a natural part of the process. What you try to do is make the right decisions you think will serve this franchise well in the present and the future and obviously the goal is to win. Ultimately, every effort we try to make is to get as close to the next championship team that we can be proud of.

Giancarlo Stanton: The city has been waiting for another World Series, another playoff run and they got close enough this year, but hopefully with my addition, we’re going to advance and be a better team.

Brian Cashman: You have to credit the Steinbrenner family for taking on the type of commitment because it is a big one and 10 years is a long time, and that’s why we’re getting $30 million on the back end of the contract offsetting the Stanton commitment as well as [the Marlins] taking $22 million on the Castro contract.

Hal Steinbrenner: I don’t think five days ago I really would have imagined this.

Giancarlo Stanton: When I signed up in Miami, I wanted things to work out. I had a good vision there, but sometimes things just spiral out of place and you have to find a new home.

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Things didn’t work out as I thought they would in 2018. The Yankees were 61-31 on July 12, but would go just 39-31 the rest of the way. Yes, the team won 100 games, but in a season in which there were seven competitive teams in the AL, it wasn’t much of an accomplishment. The Yankees lost the division by eight games and had to settle for the wild-card game for the third time in four years before getting flat-out embarrassed by the Red Sox in the ALDS thanks to rookie manager Aaron Boone’s irresponsible managing.

As for Stanton, he was just good, not great, and that was because of what he had done in 2017 and the expectations placed on him. When I was sitting in Rogers Centre in Toronto on Opening Day and watched him hit two majestic home runs, I started making plans for the Canyon of Heroes parade for the fall. But that day ended up being one of about four of five great days for the new Yankee. He finished the season with a respectable 38 home runs and 100 RBIs and those very solid numbers only represented a decrease of 21 and 32 from the year before. His .266/.343/.509 line checked in well below his .281/.376/.631 from the previous season. No one expected Stanton to put up 59 again, but I don’t think anyone expected him to swing at every single slider thrown to him either.

There were times when I thought he might hit a ball to Connecticut and there were times when I wasn’t sure if he would ever make contact again. For a player on a new team in a new league learning new pitchers, he had a good season. But for Stanton standards it was just OK. Luckily for him, he has nine more seasons with the Yankees to change the perception of him.

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My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!

Blogs • Rangers

Feb 25, 2019

Mats Zuccarello Deserved Better from Rangers

The former Rangers fan favorite deserved better than to watch the best years of the team’s core be wasted by jettisoning out the wrong players, and most egregiously, extending the wrong defensemen.

From behind the Stars’ net, Jason Dickinson picked up a loose puck and fired it around the boards. Waiting on the boards, there he was, in victory green, white and black, wearing his number 36 to stop and control the breakout pass from his new teammate. He turned around and made a quick move to avoid being checked by the Blackhawks’ Marcus Kruger and hit a streaking Radek Faksa in the middle of the ice. The pass created a breakaway for Faksa, which led a 1-0 Stars lead.

The play happened so quickly that if you didn’t know Mats Zuccarello had left New York at 5 a.m. on Sunday morning to play in this game 10 hours later, with players he had never before played with, you would have thought he and Faksa had been playing together for years. The idea Zuccarello knew where was Faksa was going to be, and when, and was able to time the pass to hit him in stride behind the defenseman with essentially a no-look pass was remarkable. It only took 11 minutes and 35 seconds of hockey for the Stars’ trade of Zuccarello to pay off.

One minute and 44 seconds into the second period, the Stars’ newest player would contribute again to the team’s eventual 4-3 win to maintain their first wild-card spot in the West. Tyler Seguin muscled through the defense of Gustav Forsling to find Zuccarello sitting alone in the left circle. Seguin managed to push the puck across the slot to Zuccarello, and he banged home a one-timer.

It was a little over eight years ago, on Christmas Eve, when the Rangers called up Zuccarello to make his NHL debut. A skilled, undrafted Norwegian forward, Zuccarello’s shootout success in the AHL had become a major selling point in New York, where the Rangers desperately needed help in obtaining the extra point. And it didn’t take long for him to get a chance to show his shootout abilities, as the Rangers found themselves in one against the Lightning in his first NHL game.

I can still see him standing at center ice waiting to begin his attempt with Sam Rosen setting the stage.

“In his first NHL game, here he comes, in against Dan Ellis, to keep it alive … slows down … fakes … SCORES!”

Zuccarello celebrated with a subtle fist pump while the MSG cameras panned to the bench where the rest of the team erupted. Zuccarello had done the impossible by getting a smile out of John Tortorella, who was in disbelief at the incredibly slow pace and maneuver used by the miniature rookie to find the back of the net. For a while, that same move became Zuccarello’s signature shootout move, and it seemed like it might never get stopped, despite every goalie in the league knowing it was coming.

Zuccarello became a fan favorite in New York as his jersey became the most popular non-Henrik Lundqvist wardrobe choice of Rangers fans. He was part of the Rangers for seven postseasons, three conference finals and one Stanley Cup Final, falling short of the team’s quest for a championship in their most recent window of opportunity.

Last season, Zuccarello watched as the core of the Rangers continued to be destroyed with Ryan McDonagh and J.T. Miller joining Ryan Callahan, Anton Stralman and Dan Girardi in Tampa Bay and Rick Nash being sent to Boston. Entering this season, Zuccarello’s impending free agency made him a coveted trade asset for the Rangers and the idea of him being separated from the Rangers and his best friend Lundqvist, literally started to ruin his life off the ice and diminish his play on it.

There was still hope the front office and Zuccarello could come to terms on an extension, but when the news broke on Saturday that he would be a healthy scratch for the Rangers’ afternoon game against the Devils, it became clear Zuccarello had played his last game as a Ranger. There is still the idea the Rangers could re-sign him in the offseason, but as a soon-to-be 32-year-old who likely wouldn’t be part of the next competitive Rangers team, coupled with the fact the Rangers let him go in the first place, it’s highly unlikely.

It took an incredible amount of poor personnel decisions, bad big-money contracts, horrible trades and nonsensical negotiating tactics to get to this point. This point being where the 2013-2016 Rangers have been stripped down to Lundqvist, Chris Kreider, Marc Staal and Jesper Fast with no real talent on the way, no timeline for the next competitive/playoff season and no idea when the next window to contend for the Stanley Cup might be.

It should have never come to this and had the Rangers been able to knock off the Devils in 2011-12 or been able to hold a two-goal lead or win an overtime game against the Kings in 2013-14 or hadn’t lost Game 7 at home to the Lightning in 2014-15 then none of this would matter now. The Rangers would have accomplished their goal, they wouldn’t have wasted Lundqvist’s prime and they would have won in the small timeframe they had to win. Instead, those three seasons are remembered as what could have been rather than what was.

Like Lundqvist and the other staples of this recent Rangers team, Zuccarello deserved better than to watch the best years of this core be wasted by jettisoning out the wrong players, and most egregiously, extending the wrong defensemen. Zuccarello deserved better than to spend the 2017-18 season on a team built as if it could still win and he deserved better than to play his last season for the Rangers on a team secretly hoping it would be bad enough to land the top pick in the 2019 draft.

When I turned on the Dallas-Chicago game on Sunday, it became real. It felt wrong to see Mats Zuccarello in others colors, for another team, but it made me smile to see him smile when he celebrated with Seguin, pointing at Seguin the way he would point at his Rangers teammates following a goal.

The camera zoomed in on Zuccarello and sticking out against the victory green, silver, black and white of his new jersey was a Rangers blue undershirt. Maybe, just maybe, he and the Rangers can come to terms on a new deal this summer. Otherwise, that blue Rangers undershirt is the closest Rangers fans will ever get to seeing him wear a Rangers jersey again.