MLB Bets: Thursday, April 28

The hot streak continues. Here’s to praying it never ends!

Here are the bets for Thursday, April 28.

Yankees-Orioles Under 8.5 (-115)
I wish this line were 9. I really do. I don’t trust Jameson Taillon. I don’t trust him to keep people off base, I don’t trust him to give the Yankees length and I don’t trust him to keep the ball on the right said of the fence. But even if he only goes five innings, I trust the Yankees’ bullpen to keep the Orioles off the board and therefore Taillon could give up three runs over five and this would still look good.

It would still look good because Bruce Zimmermann owns the Yankees. His last two starts against the Yankees: 10.2 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 10 K, 1 HR. You would think the Yankees would own a lefty like Zimmermann with his arsenal, but it’s been the other way around.

The Yankees are due for a letdown offensive performance because of how their past week has gone, because Zimmermann dominates them and because it’s a weekday afternoon, getaway day game and the Yankees usually mail those in.

Red Sox-Blue Jays Under 8 (-115)
Alek Manoah will shut the Red Sox down. That’s a guarantee. The question mark in the equation is if the Red Sox’ bullpen can hold the Blue Jays down after Garrett Whitlock opens the game.

At worst, I can see Manoah giving up three runs, and it’s hard to envision him doing that. The Red Sox’ bullpen is atrocious, and this game could 0-0 after four, and Whitlock gets removed and the Blue Jays have a day against the Red Sox relievers. But if that happens, it will be an Under 8 with only five innings to play.

Cubs-Braves Under 8.5 (-110)
My favorite under of the day. Kyle Wright has been outstanding through his first three starts this season and Drew Smyly has been really good as well, on his now seventh team in 11 years. The Braves can’t score. The Cubs aren’t any good. The two starting pitchers are solid. This is my favorite under of the day.

Astros -165 over Astros
Cardinals -180 over Diamondbacks
I want to put the Yankees in this parlay as well, but I’m scared of how hot they have been, the opposing pitcher and it being a weekday afternoon, getaway game for them. It’s a recipe for disaster for them, and I have seen them lose that exact game too many times.

If the Astros had to pick one starting pitcher to face it would be Martin Perez, and he’s starting this game for the Rangers. I have no idea how Perez is still in the league and how he keeps getting new contracts from different teams. I get that the Rangers suck and aren’t going anywhere and someone has to pitch the innings, but Perez? Even if Justin Verlander lays an egg here, the Astros’ offense will be able to make up for it.

I don’t like betting on the Cardinals. Like the Nationals, Phillies and Braves, historically they have screwed me with anemic offenses. I do everything I can to not bet in favor of those teams. But when you’re playing the 2022 Diamondbacks at home, it’s hard to not to bet in favor of the Cardinals.

Yesterday: 2-0