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The Turning Point or Another Tease for the Yankees?

The Yankees’ season looked over on Tuesday night, but after back-to-back wins against the best team in the AL, maybe just maybe the Yankees can on a run for a playoff berth.

New York Yankees vs. Texas Rangers

After Monday night‘s ninth-inning loss, I was devastated. After Tuesday night‘s blow out, I was done. The Yankees had lost three games in a row again, fallen back to two games under .500 again and finally destroyed nearly all of the remaining optimism I had that this team could still go on a run and save us from the third postseason-less October in four years.

I said “nearly all” and not “all” because I’m a sucker thanks to the second wild card and the hope it has given .500 teams in the now five years it has existed. When it was first implemented in 2012, I was heavily against it, thinking the Yankees would continue to win the AL East and that it could only screw them over. I was right to be against it, but for the wrong reasons.

In 2013, the second wild card gave the team and its fans false hope that they could sneak into the playoffs. In 2014, the same thing happened. In 2015, it forced them to play a one-game playoff against the one starting pitcher they had absolutely no chance of beating when they would have been automatically in the ALDS in the pre-2012 format. And in 2016, it once again has instilled false hope into the team and its fans and will most likely force the team to not rebuild at the trade deadline. The second wild card has been the worst thing to ever happen to the Yankees (aside from teams deciding to lock up their players to long-term deals before they hit free agency) and the cycle might never end.

But after back-to-back walk-off wins against the best team in the American League, the Yankees are once again at .500 with a 39-39 record. They were here at 30-30 and 31-31 and 34-34 and 36-36 and 37-37. Each time they failed to meet their season high of two games over .500, which they last experienced when they were 4-2.

The Yankees have given the front office and fans no reason to believe they can actually make the playoffs or contend this season. They’re a .500 team through 48 percent of the season, have scored the fourth fewest runs in the AL and are 18-26 against teams with a winning record (they are 2-4 against Boston, 2-4 against Baltimore and 2-7 against Toronto). They are eight games back in the division, and while they are only three games back in the wild card, the Astros, Blue Jays, Tigers, Mariners and even the White Sox are between them and the second wild card. Right now, they have a 3.8 percent chance of winning the division and a 6.9 percent chance of getting a wild card, thanks to their abysmal negative-31 run differential.

Everything about the Yankees’ first 78 games of the season suggests the front office should be selling off pieces of this team like it’s Anacott Steel, but like the option of placing a drunken order with Domino’s at 1:49 a.m., the second wild card keeps calling the Yankees’ name, tempting them to make a decision that won’t help them this season or next season or the season after that, and they will likely be in the same place over and over again: good enough to maybe make the playoffs, but never good enough to win a championship.

Unfortunately, I’m the person placing that Domino’s order. In fact, I still remember the Domino’s phone number on Staniford Street in Boston from my freshman year of college (617-248-0100). I believe this Yankees team can make the playoffs because there isn’t a dominant team in the division and the teams they need to jump in the wild card are just as bad, if not worse, and it will be shown over the course of an entire season. I know the right thing would be for them to sell, and to stop pretending like they are going anywhere, I just need them to make a 100-percent commitment to it.

It would have been easier to accept this season is going nowhere if the Yankees just went down 1-2-3 in the ninth inning on Wednesday night like they have in every other game they have trailed in the ninth this season. It would have been easier if Robinson Chirinos had blocked Tony Barnette splitter on Thursday afternoon and Jacoby Ellsbury had poppped up for the third out of the ninth like he has in every other big spot as a Yankee and the Rangers had won in extra innings. Instead, the Yankees mounted an improbable six-run ninth inning on Wednesday and won on a passed ball on Thursday, finished June 14-12, are back to .500 and play the last-place Padres this weekend.

I know the Yankees will probably string us along through San Diego, Chicago and Cleveland before the All-Star break and then tease us through July 31 only to have the trade deadline pass and then have them endure the kind of August and September collapse they had last season, leaving them sitting on their thumb with no postseason berth and no future pieces to show for it. I would like to think Wednesday night’s ninth inning was the turning point of the season and on the 2016 World Series championship DVD they will point to June 29 as the night when the season changed the way the trip to Atlanta in 2009 is remembered. In reality, June 29 will probably be remembered as the start of another tease to trick the Yankees, the front office and the fans into thinking this team is something more than a .500 team. I wish I knew one way or the other.

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PodcastsYankees

Podcast: Scott Reinen

The Bronx Pinstripes blogger joined me to talk about if the Yankees should be buyers or sellers this season.

Joe Girardi

Buyers or sellers? That’s the biggest question the Yankees face in the coming weeks. It’s been a debate all season, but it likely won’t get answered until the seven games after the All-Star break when the Yankees face the Red Sox and Orioles to determine their fate this season.

Scott Reinen of Bronx Pinstripes joined me to talk about if the Yankees should be buyers or sellers, believing in Michael Pineda and Nathan Eovaldi, why the team continues to screw over Rob Refsnyder and what to do with Mark Teixeira when he returns from the disabled list.

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BlogsYankees

Yankees Have a Major Middle Relief Problem

The Yankees haven’t been able to trust a reliever not named Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller or Aroldis Chapman all season and it’s costing them rest and wins.

Kirby Yates

That wasn’t exactly how you want to start the most important 11-game stretch in 23 seasons.  After scoring six runs in three games against the Tigers over the weekend, the Yankees scored 10 runs for just the fourth time all season and lost. But that’s not even the worst part. The worst part is that in five innings against Jorge De La Rosa, they didn’t score once. If you’re not aware, he was De La Rosa’s line entering the game: 31.2 IP, 42 H, 32 R, 31 ER, 15 BB, 39 K, 8 HR, 8.81 ERA, 1.800 WHIP. The Yankees couldn’t score against a pitcher who gives up one run per inning.

The good news is the loss was just one game on a five-game road trip in which the Yankees have to win at least three games, but preferably four. The bad news is they have little room for error for the next four games after Nathan Eovaldi reminded us all for the third straight start why the Dodgers and Marlins didn’t mind giving up on a young, cost-controlled starting pitching who throws 100 mph. But in talking about the big picture for the season, the Yankees are in trouble if they are unable to not only beat Jorge De La Rosa, but even score against the 35-year-old lefty.

After 64 games, we know what to expect from the Yankees’ offense: not much. When they score 10 runs, they should win. Any team should win with that much offense. But for as bad as Eovaldi was and he was bad, anyone not named Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller or Aroldis Chapman who comes out of the Yankees’ bullpen is a problem. Tuesday night was just the latest in a long line of middle relief failures.

Nick Goody can have a pass for last night since he was the only Yankees pitcher to not give up a run. He actually hasn’t given up a run in last three appearances (3 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K), but before that, he had given up runs in back-to-back appearances (0.2 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HR) and in six of his last eight appearances (7.2 IP, 9 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 3 BB, 5 K, 2 HR). He hasn’t been great, but he’s been about what you expect out of a middle reliever and he has basically become Joe Girardi’s must trusted bullpen arm outside of the Big Three.

Kirby Yates has been awful in June and between his weird delivery and the fact that he wasn’t good for Tampa Bay last year, there’s not much to like about him. After an impressive May, he has become 2016’s version of David Carpenter, who dominated for a month last year before getting rocked in May and and designated for assignment in June. Yates has now allowed four earned runs in his last two appearances (1.1 IP, 3 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 2 BB, 1 K) and his numbers in six June appearances are get-sent-back-to-Scranton worthy: 4.1 IP, 8 H, 8 R, 8 ER, 4 BB, 5 K).

Richard Bleier came in for fifth career appearance, and after pitching 3 2/3 scoreless inning in his first four appearances, here’s how his night went in Colorado: single (allowed an inherited runner to score), single (allowed an inherited runner to score), groundout, single, double, triple (two runs scored), groundout, lineout (one run scored), groundout. Bleier has yet to strike out a hitter and the only reason he’s in the bullpen is for Girardi to have a left-handed option that isn’t Miller or Chapman since Girardi has to have a lefty to go to the way he had to have Clay Rapada and Billy Traber and Rich Hill (before he figured out how to pitch) and David Huff.

Those two were only the problem last night, but the problem has been season-long. Chasen Shreve started the year with 5 1/3 scoreless innings before giving up 11 earned runs and seven(!) home runs in his next 13 2/3 innings and he landed on the disabled list with a shoulder injury. Johnny Barbato looked like he might be the next big thing when he started the season with nine strikeouts in six scoreless innings, but he gave up eight runs in his next seven innings and got sent down. Phil Coke returned for a second go-around in the Bronx, pitched as badly as he had the first time seven years ago, and got designated for assignment. Branden Pinder made one appearance, it went about as well as his late-season appearances last year, and now he’s out with Tommy John surgery. Tyler Olson appeared in one game, sucked, got released and now he’s in the Royals organization. Anthony Swarzak is still on the 25-man roster, has made three appearances, and hasn’t been good, so it’s only a matter of time until he’s back in Scranton.

Outside of Shreve, all of those pitchers are right-handed and none of them are good (including Shreve half the time). The same way Preston Claiborne, Caleb Cotham, Nick Rumbelow and Danny Burawa couldn’t get the job done when they were with the Yankees, neither can anyone on the team now (aside from Goody sometimes) that isn’t Betances, Miller or Chapman.

Games in which the Yankees are hoping to hold a deficit for a chance to come back are blown open and games in which the Yankees have such a big enough lead that they can rest the Big Three suddenly result in one or more of them warming up in the bullpen. The only time the Yankees’ middle relief can be trusted is when the game is out of hand one way or the other. The Yankees can’t go through an entire season without any reliable middle relief if they want to contend for a playoff spot. But unless they find a way to beat the Rockies or Twins over the next two weeks it won’t matter anyway.

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PodcastsYankees

Podcast: Andrew Rotondi

The Bronx Pinstripes blogger joined me to talk about the Yankees’ run, Hal’s comments and Girardi’s decisions.

Aroldis Chapman

The Yankees are the hottest team in baseball. No, really. After a 9-17 start to the season, the Yankees are 12-5 over their last 17 games and are riding a five-game winning streak as they return home for three games before heading back on the road for 10. The season and summer has been saved for the time being.

Andrew Rotondi of Bronx Pinstripes joined me to talk about the Yankees’ recent hot run, Hal Steinbrenner’s public comments, Joe Girardi’s management at the back end of the bullpen, if the Yankees will ever give Rob Refsnyder a chance, the problem with the Yankees having two designated hitters and how Michael Pineda has become A.J. Burnett.

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BlogsYankees

Joe Girardi’s Urgency Has Me Happy

For the first time as Yankees manager, Joe Girardi is showing urgency early in the season when it comes to going for wins.

Joe Girardi

If I’m not the biggest Joe Girardi critic, I’m definitely in the conversation for the title. But in a season in which the Yankees are currently 18-22, even I have no problem with how he has managed so far this season for the most part. And I definitely don’t have have a problem with how he managed the bullpen the last two nights.

The decision to take Nathan Eovaldi out after 85 pitches with a 3-1 lead in the seventh inning against the Diamondbacks wasn’t the right decision, it was the only one. The decision to take Ivan Nova out after 62 pitches with 2-1 lead in the seventh inning wasn’t the right decision, it was the only one.

I don’t care that Eovaldi had allowed just one hit or that Nova had retired seven in a row. I wouldn’t have cared if they both were throwing a n0-hitter in their respective start. They are still Nathan Eovaldi and Ivan Nova and a few good innings doesn’t change that.

It’s not just Eovaldi and Nova either even though I have as little trust in them as I did for A.J. Burnett and Phil Hughes. This line of thinking goes for the entire Yankees rotation. Even though Girardi would have left Masahiro Tanaka 2.0 (post-elbow tear) in in both situations, I would have pulled him. There are only a handful of pitchers in the league that would veto a decision to go to Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman in a close games and none of them are on the Yankees.

Somehow Girardi’s decision is being questioned. Apparently there are people that would rather roll the dice with the inconsistent and untrustworthy Eovaldi and Nova than go the closest thing to a sure-thing for the last nine outs of a game in the history of baseball. Are the Yankees not four games under .500? Are they not 6.5 games back? For one of the few times in Joe Girardi’s Yankees tenure he’s managing with urgency if the regular season and people are upset. Once again, he took out Nathan Eovaldi and Ivan Nova for Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman.

There’s this idea that Girardi is abusing the Big Three. Prior to Wednesday’s game, none of them had pitched in three days. In Wednesday’s game, Betances threw 15 pitches, Miller threw 13 and Chapman threw 13. That means in four days, Betances had thrown 15 pitches, Miller had thrown 13 and Chapman had thrown 13. But because of Girardi’s bullpen rules about not using relievers three days in a row, there are those that are worried about what would happen on Saturday with all three technically unavailable. The answer to that is that it doesn’t matter. You can’t manage one game because you’re worried about what might happen in the next game. The Yankees could blow out or get blown out on Friday and it won’t matter. Or maybe Girardi does need to use one of two or three of them again and breaks his own rule, which he should. The Yankees have to win the games that are there for them to win and so far this season there haven’t been many of them.

And if you’re worried about overusing the Big Three in May, why? What are you saving them for? Meaningless games in the summer because you gave away games early in the season because you were too worried about overuse? Are you saving Chapman’s arm, so you can trade him at the deadline to go be used when needed by a team in contention? Or are you saving his arm to hit free agency, so he can close out games for another team next year?

The one thing I have learned with Girardi over his now eight-plus seasons as Yankees manager is that there are plenty of times to be upset with his decisions. Get upset when he gives players unnecessary days off or when he bats Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner first and second against a right-handed pitcher even if they both have been cold for a month. Get upset when he plays station-to-station baseball waiting for a home run from Mark Teixeira that never comes or when he asks players to bunt that don’t know how to or have no business doing so. Get upset when he plays his “B” team in the final game of a three-game series if the Yankees have won the first two games of the series or when he bats Chase Headley anywhere but ninth in the order. Get upset about all of these things, but don’t get upset when he takes the ball from a pitcher with a career 1.382 WHIP and from a pitcher with a 5.15 ERA over his last 145 innings in favor of the best bullpen ever created.

The idea that “it’s early” or “it’s not even the All-Star break” always makes me laugh. Opening Day is as important as Game 39 and games in April count just as much as games in July. If you fuck around in April and May, there won’t be anything left to play for in August and September. And for the first time in a long time, Girardi isn’t fucking around in the regular season, and with Betances, Miller and Chapman, he shouldn’t be.

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