Tomorrow there will be Yankees baseball. Real baseball that counts. The offseason is such a grind, but we made it. We’re here!

In honor of the MLB Over/Under Win Total Predictions blog from Monday, I decided to come up with a variety of over/under predictions for the Yankees this season.

Gary Sanchez: 13.5 passed balls
Last season, Gary Sanchez led the majors with 18 passed balls despite only catching 76 games, 74 which were starts and 67 which were complete games. The year before, he led the league with 16 passed balls in 104 games caught, 99 which were starts and 91 which were complete games. Somehow, Sanchez increased his passed ball total despite appearing in 28 last games. No, that’s not ideal.

On a scale of 1-10, I care about Sanchez’s passed balls a 4, and I realize that’s definitely on the low end and might be the lowest anyone is willing to go there. There are people, like Michael Kay, who are definitely at or near a 10, but not me. Considering Sanchez’s arm and framing abilities, his passed balls are much less of an issue than they are made out to be. I’m more concerned with Sanchez returning to his offensive form, being the .284/.354/.568 hitter he was in 2016 and 2017 than I am about him blocking pitches from Masahiro Tanaka in the dirt.

But I’m optimistic when it comes to Sanchez and think he will be better behind the plate in 2019, as long as he isn’t struggling offensively since I believed that affected his defensive work either. It would be nice to see him less, let’s say lazy, when he’s got his gear on and not letting fastballs go by him to advance base runners. Sanchez has to be better in 2019. I can’t go another season of listening to idiots call for Austin Romine to be the team’s starting catcher. Under.

Miguel Andujar: .299 batting average
Like Sanchez’s passed balls, I’m not overly concerned with Miguel Andujar’s defense at third base. Last season, he was a 23-year-old in his first full season in the league. Defensive issues should expected. As long as there is progress and improvement in the field, this should be a non-issue in 2019. Unfortunately, the first time he boots a ball or bounces an errant throw to first, the mainstream media will eat it up.

When you finish second in AL Rookie of the Year voting and rack up 47 doubles and 76 extra-base hits, drive in 92 runs from the bottom of the order and bat .297, you’re allowed to be less-than-stellar in the field, in my book.

Andujar no longer has to live with the idea Manny Machado will be a Yankee at some point and take his position and force him to the outfield or first base. The Yankees proved they do believe in him and it wasn’t just a lie to buy them time until they could sign Machado, they really do believe in him. And so do I.

For a long time, having a .300 hitter on the Yankees wasn’t unusual, considering they had Derek Jeter for two decades and during his years also had some pretty good players. But since Jeter aged and Robinson Cano left, it’s been a while since you could look at the big screen in center field at the Stadium and see .300 next to a Yankee late in the season. Andujar’s rookie season and his contact ability are the perfect combination to believe that will change. Over.

Aaron Hicks: 145 games played
Everything about the Aaron Hicks contract extension is great except that he could be playing center field for the Yankees as a 36-year-old in 2026, and I’m not about to go back to 2013-16. The good news is if he sucks then or really at any point in this deal, it’s not an overwhelming amount of money the Yankees owe him or would have to eat. At $10 million per season for a starting center fielder in this center field climate, it might be the best contract the Yankees have ever had on their payroll.

The biggest problem with Hicks is that he can’t stay healthy, which he is showing once again as he won’t be ready for Opening Day and probably not for more than a week into the regular season. Hicks needs to find a way to avoid his one to two injured list stints per seasons. It’s the last piece of the puzzle for a player who saved his career and was awarded life-changing money.

Hicks’s 137 games played last season were the most of his career, and he still missed time due to injury. He’s not going to play in every game this season since no one does that anymore, and certainly not a Yankee, and because he will miss at least the first few series of the season. Given his past and the fact he will already be dipping into his cushion on this number, I don’t think he will get there. Under.

Gleyber Torres: 25 home runs
The Yankees have Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton and their best player in 2019 and possibly beyond might be Gleyber Torres. The 22-year-old middle infielder was an All-Star in his first season, carrying the Yankees for the first few weeks of his arrival before hitting a wall in the dog days of the season.

Torres finished third in the AL Rookie of the Year of voting behind Shohei Otani and Miguel Andujar though he would have won it seemingly any other year than 2018. Despite missing the beginning of the season to get more at-bats in Triple-A (and so the Yankees could circumvent the service time calendar) and a few weeks around the All-Star break, Torres still hit .271/.340/.480 with 24 home runs as a 21-year-old. He was reportedly asked for in every deal Brian Cashman tried to make or did make, and was deemed “untouchable”, even if the Yankees supposedly don’t believe in such a word, and rightfully so.

As excited as I am for this Yankees season and the first season in what was always expected to be the first season of this window of opportunity, I’m especially excited to see how Torres grows and adjusts to a league that will certainly have adjusted to him after what he did last year. A sophomore slump for Torres? I don’t see it. Over.

James Paxton: 160 1/3 innings
When you look at James Paxton’s numbers, you see a pitcher with not a lot of miles on his arm and just 582 1/3 innings as a now 30-year-old. The reason there isn’t a lot of miles on his arm is because there’s other problems with his arm, and his shoulder and his back, and so on.

Did I want the Yankees to trade for James Paxton? Eh. I was hoping if Justus Sheffield were to be traded he would be traded in a deal for a better starting pitching option, but I have to assume Paxton was the best option.

In theory, Paxton is a great fit as a power left-hander pitching half of his games in Yankee. The problem is Paxton’s career high for starts is 28 and innings is 160 1/3, and they both came last season. It would be a miracle if Paxton were to get through the 2019 unscathed to start 32 times and give the Yankees 200 innings. Until he has a season in which he’s able to avoid the injured list even once, it’s hard to believe it will happen. Under.

Aaron Judge: 118.5 walks
The number most people care about when it comes to Aaron Judge is home runs. and rightfully so. But after that it should be walks.

Judge led the league with 127 walks in 2017 and was on a 110-walk pace last season if not for the broken wrist (he ended up with 76). When Judge is getting his walks, you know he’s going right, and he’s setting the table for the guys behind him and tiring the pitcher on the mound for Giancarlo Stanton and Gary Sanchez.

If were up to me, I would bat Judge leadoff. I get that Aaron Hicks is a solid leadoff candidate, but he’s not Judge. Judge has a .409 on-base percentage over the last two seasons and seems to always be in full counts. He’s not going to give away an at-bat or swing at the first pitch and ground out to short. I want the best hitter on the team to get the most at-bats over the course of a season and the best hitter on the team is Judge. It’s certainly not Brett Gardner. Over.

Masahiro Tanaka: 13.5 wins
Masahiro Tanaka has never thrown 200 innings in the regular season for the Yankees. He came within one out (199 2/3 innings) in 2016, but aside from that his best season was 178 1/3 in 2017.

Another thing Tanaka hasn’t done is win more than 14 games. He’s won 13, 12, 14, 13 and 12. And while I’m not big on pitcher’s win totals since it’s more of a team effort and a lot more is needed that the pitcher simply going at least five innings and pitching well, it’s definitely shocking Tanaka has been unable to reach even 15 wins in what has been a very good career in the majors (64-34 with a 3.59 ERA in 132 starts).

I expect a big season out of Tanaka. Why? Well, the Yankees need him to have a big season. With Luis Severino out for at least the first month of the season, James Paxton coming off a career high in innings last season with 160 1/3, which is worrisome that that’s his high and also that he’s coming off of it given his injury history and CC Sabathia starting the season on the injured list and knowing he will only pitch 150-160 innings at most. J.A. Happ might be the Yankees’ most reliable starting pitcher at this time, and he’s a 36-year-old, who relies heavily on a 92-mph fastball, and the last time we saw him the Red Sox were having their way with him at Fenway Park.

Tanaka needs to give the Yankees quality starts (and starts period), especially at the beginning of the season with two-thirds of the rotation out. If he does that, with this offense, against the crap teams they will see in April, Tanaka will be well on his way to crushing this win total. Over.

Brett Gardner: .340 on-base percentage
Brett Gardner was pretty much the Yankees’ everyday leadoff hitter through the end of August. Sure, there were a few games sprinkled in where he didn’t hit at the top of the order, but it wasn’t until September when he became the team’s No. 9 hitter … when he played.

Gardner looked finish last season. He finished at .236/.322/.368, which are catcher-like numbers for a guy who was given the chance at the most at-bats by the team for the first five months of the season. I didn’t want Gardner back in 2019 and wanted the team to go in a different direction like Michael Brantley, who the Astros signed, and will undoubtedly have a big hit or hits against the Yankees in the postseason. Because Clint Frazier would need time to get back to playing baseball every day after losing most of the 2018 season, the Yankees couldn’t go into 2019 thinking he would be a full-time Major Leaguer. So they  brought Gardner back on a one-year, $7.5 million deal, thinking his veteran leadership and clubhouse presence were needed and that his sharp decline last season wasn’t indicative of what he has left in the tank.

Gardner was supposed to be part of an outfield rotation, which would limit his playing time and save his legs over the course of 162 games. But now with Hicks out, Gardner is the team’s starting center fielder, and likely leadoff hitter since Aaron Boone is petrified of having Aaron Judge lead off and giving the most at-bats to his team’s best hitter.

Gardner is no longer a small piece to the puzzle and role player on the 2019 Yankees. At least for the beginning of the season, the team needs him to be pre-2018 Brett Gardner. I just don’t see that happening. Under.

Bullpen: 1.5 losses with a lead after six innings
Once again, the bullpen is the strength of the Yankees. With a healthy Dellin Betances, the bullpen also boasts Aroldis Chapman, Zack Britton, Adam Ottavino and Chad Green. No other bullpen in the league could lose David Robertson and get better, but the Yankees might have (even if I wanted the Yankees to bring Robertson back). Jonathan Holder would be a Top 3 reliever on most teams in the majors, but on the Yankees he’s at best sixth.

Last season, the Yankees hadn’t lost a game all season in which they led after eight innings until the Sunday Night Baseball disaster in Boston to cap off the four-day sweep at the hands of the Red Sox and officially take the Yankees out of the division race. A four-plus month run of not losing late games is an impressive feat, but this year I’m upping the ante.

I’m taking the under on this one and giving myself a one-game cushion for the bullpen to blow a lead with nine outs to get. (The number was initially 1, but I adjusted it due to Betances’ early-season absence.) That’s how good I think this bullpen will be. Under.

Giancarlo Stanton: 200 strikeouts
Giancarlo Stanton was OK in his first season as Yankee. Yes, a .266/.343/.509 hitter with 38 home runs and 100 RBIs was just OK.

Stanton was bad with runners in scoring position (.241/.322/.379) and pretty much just bad with anyone on base (.236/.315/.429). His problems were magnified at the Stadium since he was a .229/.311/.468 hitter at home, opposed to a .300/.374/.547 hitter on the road.

I can count Stanton’s big hits from 2018 on one hand, and possibly even have a couple fingers left over. Opening Day in Toronto, his two home run game against Dallas Keuchel and his walk-off home run at the Stadium against the Mariners. That’s it? I remember his 2018 season for what he didn’t do, which was anything with runners on in a truly big moment. He was nowhere to be found in the wild-card game until the game was out of reach, and then he hit a 443-foot home run, which was the hardest postseason home run hit in the Statcast era, and in the ALDS he couldn’t have been worse, going 4-for-18 with four singles and leaving a small village on base in the series.

Here are the most common excuses from the Stanton fan club heard last season:

1. He’s with a new organization
2. He’s in a new league and has to learn new pitchers
3. He’s playing his home games in colder weather at the beginning and end of the season
4. He needs to get acclimated and adjusted to living in a new city

Maybe some or all of those are true, but they are no longer valid. Not in Year 2, not in 2019. Unfortunately, we can’t go back and redo what happened in October, we only know it can’t happen again. As a Marlin, Stanton would supposedly go to Europe during the MLB postseason since it was too painful to watch. Well, he better change his approach at the plate and with runners on or he’s going to being going to Europe a lot during the World Series as a Yankee. Under.

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My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!

Leading the 2017 ALCS 3-2, the Yankees needed a win in either Game 6 or Game 7 to advance to the World Series for the first time in eight years. Instead, the Yankees lost both games in Houston, scoring just one run over 18 innings and the team’s deepest postseason run since their last championship in 2009 ended.

The 2017 Yankees arrived ahead of schedule. After a disappointing 2016 season led to the dismissal of every tradable asset at the deadline, the team was expected to be a non-factor in the AL East and postseason picture for at least the next two seasons. But the team’s 91 regular-season wins, wild-card win, incredible comeback against the 102-win Indians in the ALDS and seven-game series against the eventual champion Astros in the ALCS changed the perception of the franchise. The so-called “rebuild” took roughly the last two months of 2016 and the Yankees were back to being the Yankees.

I had expected the window of opportunity for these Yankees to begin in 2019 and now they were providing two extra years of unexpected contention. I couldn’t be upset with the way the 2017 ended because all I could think about was 2018 and beyond. I was ecstatic about 2018 and that was with Jacoby Ellsbury, Chase Headley and Starlin Castro set to return to the team.

Meanwhile, the new ownership group in Miami was ready to trade everyone and anyone to cut payroll and hit the reset button on the franchise. Suddenly, NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton, who was coming off a 59-home run season, was available. He had reportedly given the Marlins front office a list of four teams he would waive his no-trade clause for and those four teams happened to the final four teams in the 2017 postseason: the Yankees, Astros, Dodgers and Cubs.

On Dec. 11, 2017, the Yankees landed Stanton in a surprise move that sent Castro to Miami. The following day Headley was traded was traded to San Diego. The Yankees had come within one game of the World Series and had essentially just turned Castro and Headley into Giancarlo Stanton and top prospects Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar waiting for their to turn to join the young core full time. The last time I had been this excited about the Yankees was when Mariano Rivera induced a ground ball off the bat of Shane Victorino to clinch the 2009 World Series.

Let’s go back to December 2017 for an oral history of the trade which landed the Yankees the reigning NL MVP with quotes from the prominent people involved in the actual deal.

***

Derek Jeter, Marlins CEO and minority owner/Yankees legend: This is an organization that’s been losing money for quite some time, so we have to turn it around. How we do that? It’s not clear. It’s easy to point the finger at [Giancarlo Stanton] because he makes the most money, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that that’s the move that’s going to be made.

Brian Cashman, Yankees senior vice president and general manager: I put my toe in the water down at the GM meetings. During the Ohtani sweepstakes, we needed to keep the DH spot open for the two-way player in the event that he came our way, but despite that, I did engage the Marlins a little bit in the GM meetings about a month ago.

Derek Jeter: Michael Hill has been in contact with [Stanton]. Michael has spoken with him. That’s Michael’s job. He’s the president of baseball ops, so he has spoken to him. It’s not like it’s radio silence coming from the organization. If you get into the practice of reaching out to every time there is a rumor to every player, you’d be spending 95 percent of your time on the phone trying to dispel rumors.

Michael Hill, Marlins president of baseball operations: The one thing I know, and Giancarlo has said as well, is that there was complete transparency, and if anything, overcommuncation as we went through the process with him. So he was fully aware of what was going on every step of the way. But we knew, ultimately, that it was his call. He had the no-trade and it was said to him face-to-face that ‘We understand that you have a no-trade and you if to choose to not waive it, we are prepared to have you here and you to be a Miami Marlin for the duration of your contract.’

Giancarlo Stanton, Yankees outfielder: We had a meeting, yes. We spoke about the direction of the team. I wanted us to go forward and have an advance with the pitching staff. I thought our lineup was legit and we needed help with our pitchers. We needed to add rather than subtract. The way they wanted to go was subtract, so I let it be known I didn’t want to be part of another rebuild, another losing season, and that’s almost a guaranteed losing season taking away what I thought was a great lineup.

Michael Hill: But at the same time, he understood that there were changes that needed to be made. We didn’t have a deep minor-league system. We weren’t in a position to compete because we just didn’t have enough depth. Changes needed to be made and we were open and honest with him. He was open and honest that he didn’t want to be a part of it.

Giancarlo Stanton: I gave my list of teams prior to and they went to San Francisco and the Cardinals and struck deals with them.

Brian Cashman: With certain parameters needing to be met with the Marlins it didn’t seem like it was something that was viable from their perspective. They had better deals from their assessment elsewhere. I don’t know what those deals were, so that’s how it led to the Giants and the Cardinals having deals in place and then trying to convince Stanton to waive it to go those routes.

Giancarlo Stanton: I didn’t want to be part of a rebuild. I gave my list of teams prior to and they went to San Francisco and the Cardinals and struck deals with them. I was open to listening to them, but those were not my teams and those are great people they were great meetings and great organization and great culture there but it just wasn’t the fit for me.

Michael Hill: Whenever you’re making a trade when a full no-trade is involved there are going to be challenges.

Brian Cashman: I stayed engaged as of Wednesday of last week. I thought there was no chance of anything happening and actually wished the Marlins luck, Michael hill, specifically, the GM, my counterpart, and (said) ‘Let’s talk about anything else you have on your roster.’

Michael Hill: Ultimately, it happened where one of the teams where he wanted to go, on the third try, we were able to come to an agreement and get him moved.

Brian Cashman: And then he reengaged Thursday of last week about 4 in the afternoon maybe. and then we worked the rest of the evening deep into the night. him rejecting my ideas, me rejecting his until we finally settled. but it was on Thursday by him reengaging me more along the parameters that we had in place to make it fit that I was like ‘Wow this might really have a chance here.’ And that night, Thursday night, we had an agreement.

Hal Steinbrenner, Yankees managing general partner: It happened fairly quickly. I think Cash has been working on this for a week or two, but there’s been ups and downs along the way … really the last three or four days has been pretty hectic.

Michael Hill: I’m very realistic. I understand that when you have a no-trade in place that you’re at the mercy of the player and ultimately I think that was the case because we had two other potential trades in place for him that he didn’t want to go to those two places. So it was incumbent to try to give him where he wanted to go or to welcome him back. It works out where we were able to make a deal with the Yankees.

Brian Cashman: Friday we dotted the i’s and crossed the t’s, got baseball involved, Saturday  the physical in Tampa.

The Yankees sent Starlin Castro and minor-league players Jose Devers and Jorge Guzman to the Marlins. The Marlins agreed to pay $30 million ($3 million per years for the 10 years) to the Yankees if Stanton doesn’t opt out of the contract after the 2020 season.

Giancarlo Stanton: This is what I’ve always wanted. This is what I’ve dreamed of. You always want to be in competitive games where they mean something and your performance means something to the team and the city. It’s going to be a fun challenge and I’m looking forward to it.

Brian Cashman: I want to be the New York Yankees again and that’s a team that you can count on competing for a world championship in the upcoming season.

Derek Jeter: This was the best move and the best deal for the organization. It gives us flexibility. We’re going to invest in building this organization the right way.

Michael Hill: The no-trade was a challenge, but it was one where thankfully we were able to work it out and we got good players back in return.

Derek Jeter: We’re not going to turn this organization around overnight. It’s going to take some time.

Brian Cashman: There’s trepidation on every decision I make. It doesn’t matter, even the ones right now we get praised at for working out and stuff. Every move I make, you always get buyer’s remorse. I think it’s a natural part of the process. What you try to do is make the right decisions you think will serve this franchise well in the present and the future and obviously the goal is to win. Ultimately, every effort we try to make is to get as close to the next championship team that we can be proud of.

Giancarlo Stanton: The city has been waiting for another World Series, another playoff run and they got close enough this year, but hopefully with my addition, we’re going to advance and be a better team.

Brian Cashman: You have to credit the Steinbrenner family for taking on the type of commitment because it is a big one and 10 years is a long time, and that’s why we’re getting $30 million on the back end of the contract offsetting the Stanton commitment as well as [the Marlins] taking $22 million on the Castro contract.

Hal Steinbrenner: I don’t think five days ago I really would have imagined this.

Giancarlo Stanton: When I signed up in Miami, I wanted things to work out. I had a good vision there, but sometimes things just spiral out of place and you have to find a new home.

***

Things didn’t work out as I thought they would in 2018. The Yankees were 61-31 on July 12, but would go just 39-31 the rest of the way. Yes, the team won 100 games, but in a season in which there were seven competitive teams in the AL, it wasn’t much of an accomplishment. The Yankees lost the division by eight games and had to settle for the wild-card game for the third time in four years before getting flat-out embarrassed by the Red Sox in the ALDS thanks to rookie manager Aaron Boone’s irresponsible managing.

As for Stanton, he was just good, not great, and that was because of what he had done in 2017 and the expectations placed on him. When I was sitting in Rogers Centre in Toronto on Opening Day and watched him hit two majestic home runs, I started making plans for the Canyon of Heroes parade for the fall. But that day ended up being one of about four of five great days for the new Yankee. He finished the season with a respectable 38 home runs and 100 RBIs and those very solid numbers only represented a decrease of 21 and 32 from the year before. His .266/.343/.509 line checked in well below his .281/.376/.631 from the previous season. No one expected Stanton to put up 59 again, but I don’t think anyone expected him to swing at every single slider thrown to him either.

There were times when I thought he might hit a ball to Connecticut and there were times when I wasn’t sure if he would ever make contact again. For a player on a new team in a new league learning new pitchers, he had a good season. But for Stanton standards it was just OK. Luckily for him, he has nine more seasons with the Yankees to change the perception of him.

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My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!