After three days off, the ALCS is here.

Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.

1. If the Yankees are to advance to the World Series, their opponent will be a personal problem no matter what. Either they will face the Dodgers, and with my wife being from Los Angeles, the threat of having to live with the Yankees losing to the Dodgers in the World Series and me having to hear about it daily forever looms. Or they will face the Mets, and the threat of the Mets beating the Yankees in the World Series and changing the New York baseball dynamic and hierarchy looms. If the Yankees are to reach the World Series, they better win.

2. To get there, they will first have to eliminate the Guardians for the fourth time since 2017 (2017 ALDS, 2020 wild-card series, 2022 ALDS). I was rooting for the Tigers to win their ALDS matchup because of their impossibly bad offense, but it will be the Guardians, and that’s OK too.

The Yankees have owned the Guardians in recent years and beat up on them in the regular season this year as well. The Yankees went 4-2 against the Guardians this season and one of the two losses was a Caleb Ferguson extra-inning meltdown.

3. I’m confident about the Yankees in this series even with Carlos Rodon being their Game 1 starter.

“Game 1 sets the tone,” Rodon said. “I’m looking forward to being out there again, feeling the energy, and just giving my team the best chance to win.”

Rodon’s ALDS Game 2 start began with him striking out the side in the first, all while walking around the infield between batters like a maniac. He wasn’t stable mentally, emotionally or physically in that start, and it ended up being the only loss the Yankees suffered in the series. Rodon was pulled in the fourth inning of that start, similar to his only other postseason start in the 2021 ALDS with the White Sox against the Astros when he couldn’t get through the third inning. He can’t be that maniacal version of himself in Game 1 of the ALCS. He claims he watched Gerrit Cole’s poise in Game 4 of the ALDS to hopefully learn how to harness the mood-altering swings he experiences from pitch to pitch.

“Hopefully going through his first playoff game here in the Bronx,” Aaron Boone said, “and experiencing all the emotions that you do, there’s something that serves him well in his next time.”

4. The Guardians hit left-handed pitching and so it would have made sense to pitch Clarke Schmidt in Game 1 with Rodon going on the road in Game 3. Boone went with the high-paid veteran. It’s the Yankee Way: owed money trumps production.

Rodon has already banked $50.7 million in two years as a Yankee and is owed $111 million over the next four years. He would be nice if he earned some of that money by pitching well in the remainder of his postseason starts. If he does so and October ends with the Yankees winning the last game he pitches, his six-year, $162 million deal (which looks amazingly regrettable now) would all be worth it.

5. Oswaldo Cabrera and Jon Berti did a fantastic job, both offensively and defensively at first base in the ALDS. Apparently, it wasn’t good enough. Not only is Anthony Rizzo on the ALCS roster, but he’s playing first base and batting eighth in Game 1.

From Opening Day until Rizzo was injured on June 16, he had a .630 OPS in 291 plate appearances. He returned on September 1 and had a .660 OPS in 84 plate appearances. Whenever you can rush a guy with two broken fingers and a .637 OPS in 375 plate appearances back, you have to do it.

6. Cabrera and Berti combined to reach base seven times in 16 plate appearances in the ALDS and played first base flawlessly. There’s no way Rizzo, if healthy, would have posted a .438 on-base percentage in that series and I don’t know that he would have played first base flawlessly given his sloppy play in the field this season. Now add in him having not played in more than two weeks, likely still experiencing some level of pain on those two broken fingers and it’s like what are we doing here? Just play Cabrera or Berti. Here’s to hoping Rizzo isn’t a complete zero at the plate and doesn’t screw up in the field.

7. Here’s also to hoping Aaron Judge puts an end to his miserable postseason career because that’s exactly what it has been: miserable. Judge’s .762 career postseason OPS sits 248 points below his regular-season OPS of 1.010. That needs to change. I’m just not sure it’s going to change against the Guardians.

Here are Judge’s numbers against the Guardians in the postseason:

2017 ALDS: 1-for-20, 16 strikeouts
2020 Wild-Card Series: 1-for-11, four strikeouts
2022 ALDS: 4-for-20, 11 strikeouts

8. Judge has hit three home runs in 12 postseason games against the Guardians, but overall, he’s 6-for-51 with 31 strikeouts. The Yankees have eliminated the Guardians in each of three postseasons Judge has been a part of despite him hitting poorly, but him hitting poorly makes it challenging. He doesn’t have very good career numbers against Game 1 starter Alex Cobb (3-for-12 with a home run), but maybe facing the veteran righty will be what he needs to get going.

9. On the other hand, Juan Soto owns Cobb. Soto is 7-for-11 with a double, two home runs, a walk and two strikeouts against the righty. Like Judge, Soto failed to hit a ball out in the ALDS, but I would think that will change in the ALCS, and could change in the first inning of the first game. Don’t be surprised if Cobb gives Soto an unintentional intentional walk in the first and choose to pitch to Judge. It may be the only time the duo gets to face Cobb with the Guardians likely to go to their vaunted bullpen as quickly as they can. With each win in the postseason, the season gets extended by a day, and that means another game of Soto as a Yankee.

10. The Yankees haven’t won a seven-game series since the 2009 World Series. Since then, they lost the 2010 ALCS (4-2), 2012 ALCS (4-0), 2017 ALCS (4-3), 2019 ALCS (4-2) and 2022 ALCS (4-0). An 0-5 run in the ALCS for the franchise with an abysmal 7-20 record.

The Yankees don’t need to win Game 1 to win the series, but at home, with a rested Rodon and a rested bullpen, the odds are in their favor. Win Game 1 and they can play .500 baseball for six games against an inferior AL Central opponent and reach the World Series. Win Game 1 and they have Cole going in Game 2. Win Game 1 and … that’s all. Win Game 1.

The Yankees took an early lead against the Royals and never relinquished it in their series-clinching 3-1 win in Game 4 of the ALDS.

Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.

1. I had an uneasy feeling going into Game 4. I feared the Yankees offense may not show up or Gerrit Cole would lay an egg or Bobby Witt would finally start hitting and Aaron Judge wouldn’t or regular-season Clay Holmes would his rear his ugly head at the most inopportune time, or some combination of all. A loss in Game 4 would mean a winner-take-all Game 5 on Saturday in the Bronx with Carlos Rodon starting against strikeout lead Cole Ragans. Thankfully, that game won’t take place.

It won’t take place because Gleyber Torres doubled on the first pitch of the game from Michael Wacha, Juan Soto singled him in two pitches later, the Yankees took a 1-0 lead and never looked back.

2. I haven’t liked Michael Wacha since he was a 22-year-old rookie pitching in the 2013 World Series for the Cardinals. That postseason, after allowing one earned runs in 21 innings across three starts in the NLDS and NLCS, he pooped his pants against the Red Sox in the World Series and essentially served as the commissioner in handing them the Commissioner’s Trophy. Wacha got blasted for nine baserunners and six runs in 3 2/3 innings in the clinching Game 6. I will never forgive him for that performance and because of that, clinching the ALDS against the Royals with him taking the loss made it that much sweeter.

3. Like Wacha against the Red Sox in that World Series, I pooped my pants a little in the seventh inning when Kyle Isbel sent that 1-0 pitch from Cole to the right-field wall in what resulted in the third out of the inning rather than a game-tying home run. The ball would have been out on just about any other night in Kansas City if not for the wind, and it would have been out in 24 parks in the league. At Yankee Stadium, that ball is in the second deck into Section 205.

For such an important postseason game with the opportunity to clinch and advance on the line, once the Yankees got that early lead, the remainder of the game seemed like a formality. Cole was dialed in, the offense did just enough (their motto) and the combination of Holmes and the unhittable Luke Weaver was perfect in the eighth and ninth innings. Outside of that one swing from Isbel, the Royals were never really in it, as they only had two runners reach second base all game.

4. The Yankees did just enough to beat the Royals in four games. They got one great start (Game 4) and three lousy ones from their rotation. After Game 1, they never scored more than three runs in a game. They hit three home runs in the entire series. Their two superstars finished with OPS of .746 and .620. They drew 27 walks in four games and barely did anything with them. It was as if the Yankees knew they could coast in a class they were overqualified for and do just enough to get by and pass and advance to the next grade.

“Even though we didn’t score a ton of runs, I felt like we had a lot of tough, heavy at-bats that we like to have,” Aaron Boone said. “Hopefully we break through with some more runs next series.”

The same type of performance may have worked against the Royals and may work against the Guardians or Tigers in the ALCS since the Guardians and Tigers are no better than the Royals, but if the Yankees want to do something this group never has, at some point they are going to have to play to their best of their abilities. At some point, Judge is going to have to hit like the player that spent the year being compared to Barry Bonds, Soto is going to have to start hitting the ball out of the park the way he did for the Nationals and Padres in the postseason, Austin Wells is going to have to stop hitting like Jose Trevino, Jazz Chisholm is going to have to get back on track and the rotation is going to have to do much better than turning in a strong effort once every four games.

5. As for the bottom of the lineup, they did their job in the series. Alex Verdugo was the MVP of the Game 1 win (before immediately reverting back to his usual self with a groundout to right side in nearly every at-bat since), Anthony Volpe reached base in seven of 16 plate appearances, Oswaldo Cabrera played a fine first base for being not a first baseman and reached base in four of eight plate appearances and Jon Berti looked like a natural first baseman in playing the position for the first time ever and also reached base in three of eight plate appearances.

6. The bullpen also did its job.

Yankees rotation in ALDS: 20.1 IP, 24 H, 11 R, 10 ER, 3 BB, 19 K, 2 HR, 4.43 ERA, 1.328 WHIP.
Yankees bullpen in ALDS: 15.2 IP, 8 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 4 BB, 15 K, 0.00 ERA, 0.766 WHIP.

7. Chisholm was wrong in his assertion that the Royals “got lucky” in their Game 2 win. They weren’t lucky, they just weren’t good enough. They were as sloppy as the Yankees in Game 1 and scored three runs total between Games 3 and 4. It’s a good thing the Yankees eliminated the Royals because having another foolish trash talk thrown back in the Yankees’ and their fans’ faces forever would have been tough to stomach. If anyone is “lucky” it’s Chisholm who did nothing offensively to help eliminate the Royals following his comments as he went 0-for-7 with a walk in Games 3 and 4.

8. Boone had a pretty good series. There were only three decisions he made or didn’t make that I had issues with: He shouldn’t have let Cole start the sixth inning in Game 1, he should have challenged the play at first with Volpe to lead off the third inning in Game 3, he shouldn’t have pinch run for Giancarlo Stanton with two outs in Game 4. Outside of that, the decisions Boone made worked out, especially starting Verdugo in left field (at least for Game 1) and using Holmes as his second most important reliever in the series.

9. The next choice Boone will have to make on Monday when he fills out the ALCS Game 1 lineup card will be what to do at the cleanup spot. I think Boone will keep Wells in that spot because he seems to be superstitious about the lineup when the Yankees win, even if Wells has been extremely bad since the start of September. Wells did come through with a huge walk and a game-tying hit in Game 1, but since then he has been an automatic out (and even an automatic two outs like he was in Game 4 with a double play). It will depend on if the Yankees play the Guardians or the Tigers and if a lefty or righty starts, but if Wells remains between Judge and Stanton, he will be expected to hit.

10. Expectations haven’t worked out well for these Yankees. Ever since their unexpected run to Game 7 of the ALCS when they were expected to miss out on the postseason, they haven’t lived up to expectations over the last six seasons. After their 3-1 win over the Royals in Game 4 of the ALDS, for the first time in a long time they met an expectation: reach the ALCS.

Advancing to the ALCS was the minimum requirement for the 2024 Yankees. An ALDS loss may have led to wholesale changes within the organization in the offseason (but likely not since no one lost their job when the team missed out on the postseason completely in 2023). That minimum requirement was elevated to winning the AL pennant for the first time in 15 years once the Astros and Orioles went out in the wild-card round.

The Yankees are now four wins away from reaching the World Series. Four wins against an AL Central team from reaching the World Series. It’s something this Yankees core under this Yankees manager has never done. It’s something they may never have a better path and opportunity to accomplish. Three down, eight to go.

Giancarlo Stanton put the Yankees on his back and carried them to a 3-2 win in Game 3 of the ALDS.

Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.

1. The Yankees blew their opportunity to take a commanding lead thanks to a disastrous start and a lackluster offensive effort. They can’t afford to have either of those on Wednesday. If they do, they’ll be playing for their season on Thursday.

That’s what I wrote prior to Game 3 of the ALDS. Somehow, the Yankees had both a third straight disastrous start and a lackluster offensive effort, and yet, they won and are one win away from advancing to the ALCS.

2. Clarke Schmidt was good until he wasn’t, similar to Carlos Rodon’s performance in Game 2. I wrote after Game 2 that I didn’t trust Schmidt because I don’t trust any Yankees starter and Schmidt proved my lack of trust to be warranted: 4.2 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K.

Three starters and three stinkers from Yankees starters in the series. Gerrit Cole couldn’t get an out in the sixth inning in Game 1, Rodon couldn’t get through the fourth inning in Game 2 and Schmidt unraveled and was pulled in the fifth inning in Game 3. If not for all of the scheduled off days in this series, with the way the Yankees’ elite relievers have been used, I’m not sure where the Yankees would be.

Cole, Rodon and Schmidt this series: 13.1 IP, 18 H, 10 R, 9 ER, 3 BB, 15 K, 2 HR.
Yankees bullpen this series: 13.2 IP, 8 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 4 BB, 12 K.

It’s never good when your bullpen has recorded more outs than your starters in a postseason series, and again, if not for the days off, all of this, and the Yankees 2-1 series lead may not be possible.

3. The Yankees’ offense was also putrid for the third straight game in the series. The eight Yankees not named Giancarlo Stanton went 1-for-25. Thankfully, Stanton went 3-for-5 with an RBI double and a go-ahead solo home run in the eighth inning. Not only that, but the slow-footed (to put it kindly) Stanton stole his first base in four years.

The Stanton home run off Kris Bubic that gave the Yankees a 3-2 lead came on a third consecutive slider from the Royals’ left-hander. Bubic started the seventh and with two lefties (Austin Wells and Jazz Chisholm) sandwiched around Stanton, and the need to pitch to three batters, Royals manager Matt Quatraro decided he would rather have a lefty face Stanton than a righty face the struggling Wells and the he’s-not-Stanton Chisholm. Whoops.

The home run was the first Yankees go-ahead home run in the eighth inning or later in the postseason since Raul Ibanez’s walk-off home run in Game 3 of the 2012 ALDS. One, that was such a memorable, fun night at the Stadium back in 2012. Two, that’s ridiculous. That’s a span of 12 years and nine postseason appearances. Now you know why the Yankees haven’t reached the World Series in 15 years.

4. Prior to Game 3, I wrote that I would sit Stanton in favor of Jasson Dominguez to start the game because of Seth Lugo’s ability to keep the ball in park. (Lugo faced the most batters of any pitcher in the league this season and only 1.9 percent of them hit home runs.) I was partially right in that Lugo didn’t allow a Yankee to homer (he held the Yankees homer-less for 19 innings this year), but wrong since Stanton did pick up two hits against Lugo, including an RBI double to open the scoring in the fourth. I never thought Aaron Boone would actually not play Stanton in a playoff game, but his performance in Game 3 confirmed that. (The same way Alex Verdugo’s performance in Game 1 will now keep him in the starting lineup for the rest of the postseason despite him reverting back to his usual self.)

5. “When it’s the playoffs, he takes it to another level,” Schmidt said of Stanton. “I think there’s something to be said about players that can do that.”

I agree, Clarke. I think there is something to be said about players that can do that … and players that can’t. A lot of the Yankees lineup can’t.

If not for Stanton, the Yankees would be playing for their season in Game 4. The rest of the lineup’s 1-for-25 was disturbing, and to make matters worse, they racked up nine walks and only one of them scored (Juan Soto on the Stanton RBI double). The Yankees have 22 walks in the three games played so far and somehow they have won two one-run games and lost the other, scoring two runs in that loss. Twenty-two walks in three games! That should equate to double-digit run outputs every game and blowouts. Not nail-biting, eked-out wins.

6. It was another miserable night for Aaron Judge who went 0-for-4 with a walk. He’s now 1-for-11 with three walks and five strikeouts in the series. A nice, shiny 2-for-27 since the start of the 2022 ALCS. Austin Wells has barely been better than Judge at 2-for-12 with two walks and five strikeouts. At least Wells had the game-tying hit in Game 1 that he can hang his hat on. I’m not sure how the Yankees plan on continuing to win this month with their 3- and 4-hitters being their two worst hitters, but I guess we’re going to find out.

7. The combination of Anthony Volpe and Oswaldo Cabrera in the 7- and 8-spots had a big night. The duo went 1-for-3 with five walks. Volpe at-bats have been better than anyone could have expected in the series, and he has been on base in six of his 12 plate appearances. Cabrera bats at the bottom of the order, hasn’t even played in every game of the series, and he has as many hits (1) and as many walks (3) as Judge does in the series. (And one more extra-base hit, since Judge doesn’t have any.)

8. It was a rough night for Chisholm, who famously called the Royals “lucky” after their Game 2 win. Chisholm went 0-for-4 with a strikeout in the game. If you’re going to openly trash talk, please back it up. Yankees fans have had to endure enough backfired trash talk during the Boone era. Here’s to Chisholm having a big Game 4 and helping eliminate the Royals on their own field, so “They just got lucky” doesn’t become the 2024 version of Judge blaring “New York, New York” from a boom box at Fenway Park in 2018, which became the Red Sox’ victory song for their World Series run.

9. I thought it was a mistake for Boone to not challenge the play at first on Volpe’s groundout to lead off the third. I think it may have been overturned and the Yankees could have had the leadoff man on in that inning against Lugo. I also think the Yankees got screwed on the Gleyber Torres ball down the right-field line that was called foul, and stood as called after a challenge. It sure look like it hit part of the line.

10. “We need to wrap it up [Thursday],” Stanton said. “No wiggle room. We’ve got to get it done.”

Cole gets the ball in Game 4 with a chance to redeem himself from Game 1. I would have started Luis Gil in Game 4. If Gil starts and the Yankees win, Cole would be able to start Game 1 of the ALCS. If Gil starts and the Yankees lose, Cole would be ready to go for Game 5. Instead, if the Yankees advance, Cole will be starting Game 2 of the ALCS, and if the Yankees lose, they will be playing for their season on Saturday with Rodon starting. Please don’t let it get to that. Listen to Stanton: Wrap it up in Game 4.

The Yankees arrive in Kansas City with the ALDS tied at 1.

Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.

1. Two years ago the Yankees were in this position. They had won Game 1 of the ALDS over the Guardians at the Stadium then after an off day and a rainout, they lost to the Guardians three days later in 10 innings. They went on the road for Game 3 with the ALDS tied at 1.

In Game 3 in Cleveland, the Yankees held a 5-3 lead entering the ninth. Aaron Boone made Clay Holmes unavailable despite Homes telling the media after the game he had told Boone before the game he was available, so Boone let Wandy Peralta begin the ninth after having pitched in the seventh and eighth.

Peralta allowed a one-out double followed by a single and Boone called on Clarke Schmidt to get the final two outs. Schmidt allowed back-to-back singles, which brought the Guardians within a run before getting a huge three-pitch strikeout for the second out. Schmidt got ahead of Oscar Gonzalez 1-2 and was a strike away from giving the Yankees a 2-1 series lead, but instead allowed his third single of the inning, a two-run, walk-off single and the Yankees lost.

2. It was Schmidt’s second career postseason appearance. His first had been the day before in Game 2 when he relieved Jameson Taillon after Taillon gave up the go-ahead run in the 10th. In typical Boone fashion, Schmidt was below Taillon in the manager’s level of trust rankings for Game 2, but then surpassed him for Game 3 and was used to close out a game he failed to close out.

Schmidt is a different pitcher in 2024 than he was in 2022. In 2022, he made only three starts, and through 2022, he had only five career starts to his name. Schmidt became part of the rotation for 2023 and everything clicked for him in the middle of May that season.

Schmidt is a good starting pitcher. He will likely need to be better than “good” in Game 3 with Seth Lugo going for the Royals. He can’t have the type of start Gerrit Cole or Carlos Rodon turned in in Games 1 and 2, as that many runs will unlikely be overcome.

3. Do I trust Schmidt? No, not really. But I don’t trust any Yankees starter. How could you? Neither of their two supposed best starters could get an out in the sixth inning in Games 1 or 2 and their No. 2 starter couldn’t get through four innings. The Yankees already gave the Royals their supposed best and the Royals had no problem creating traffic on the bases and scoring runs.

Despite my lack of trust in Schmidt, I do think he will be fine. His last start of the season in Game 161 against the Pirates was the first time in 16 starts in 2024 he allowed more than three earned runs in a game. It was just the third time in 40 starts he allowed more than three runs in a game. If the Yankees are to lose Game 3 of the ALDS like they did two years ago, I doubt it will be because of Schmidt.

4. If the Yankees lose Game 3, it will be because of the offense. Every October with these Yankees I go in thinking it’s going to be different, and every October it’s not. I want to be optimistic about the offense each postseason, thinking there’s no way they can no-show again, and yet each postseason they no-show again. Through two games they’re running it back and playing all of the old hits: poor situational hitting, a lack of power, running into outs on the bases and failing to hit with runners in scoring position. Every fear I had about these Yankees for the postseason is coming to fruition.

5. Aaron Judge is getting all of the attention for the Yankees’ offensive shortcomings and he should. He’s the highest-paid player on the team. He’s the captain of the team. He’s the one who broke the AL home run record in 2022 and won MVP only to go 1-for-16 with a single in the sweep by the Astros in that season’s ALCS. He’s the one whose name was said in the same breath as Babe Ruth and Barry Bonds this season when he outperformed his own 2022 MVP season, nearly won the Triple Crown and will win the 2024 AL MVP. But he’s the one who came up in Game 1 with runners on second and third and no outs and struck out. He’s the one who came up in Game 2 with runners on first and second and no outs and struck out. He’s the one who is 1-for-7 with an infield single through two games in this series.

6. Going back to that miserable performance of his in the 2022 ALCS, Judge is now 2-for-23 with three walks and eight strikeouts. Unsurprisingly, the Yankees are 1-5 in those games.

If you want to call 23 at-bats and 26 plate appearances a small sample size, go ahead. But that’s what the postseason is: short series and small sample sizes. And for his postseason career, a sample size that is now 207 plate appearances, Judge has a .760 OPS, a number that is 250 points below his career regular-season OPS of 1.010.

7. Prior to the start of the postseason, I wrote:

The dynastic Yankees of the late-‘90s and 2000s won in the postseason because their stars remained stars in October. When the 163rd game came, there was no drop-off in production despite only facing the top teams and elite pitching each game. Look at these regular season vs. postseason career numbers.

Derek Jeter regular season: .310/.377/.440
Derek Jeter postseason: .308/.374/.465

Bernie Williams regular season: .297/.381/.477
Bernie Williams postseason: .275/.371/.480

Paul O’Neill regular season: .288/.363/.470
Paul O’Neill postseason: .284/.363/.465

That hasn’t happened with this Yankees core. When October comes, these Yankees have always disappeared, and Aaron Judge has been as big of a problem as anyone.

Aaron Judge regular season: .288/.406/.604
Aaron Judge postseason: .211/.310/.462

Judge’s postseason slash line has grown worse, now at .208/.311/.449.

The Yankees offense goes as Judge goes. In Yankees wins this season, Judge hit .402/.527/.887 for a 1.415 OPS. In Yankees losses this season, Judge hit .208/.356/.46 for a .793 OPS. When Judge hits, the Yankees win. When Judge doesn’t hit the Yankees lose.

8. As expected the rest of the Yankees aren’t really doing their part to not make it all about Judge, and no one more than Giancarlo Stanton.

I would sit Stanton in Game 3. Stanton is 1-for-8 with a walk in the series and has cost the Yankees two runs with his jogging (at best) on the bases. After Game 1, I wrote about why Stanton’s supposed postseason greatness isn’t so great (unless you remove from the fans from the stands and play the games at a neutral site). The only reason to play him is because you think he can get into a mistake and hit it over the fence. The problem is the level of pitcher he is seeing each at-bat isn’t making mistakes. Stanton assumes every 2-0 or 3-1 pitch is going to be a fastball down the middle and swings like it. That hasn’t happened for him this postseason and likely won’t with Lugo on the mound.

9. Lugo didn’t allow a home run in 14 innings against the Yankees this season. He only allowed 16 for the year, including just one to the 105 batters he faced in September. He faced a league-high 836 batters for the season and gave up 16 home runs, equating to 1.9 percent of the batters he faced hit a home run.

It’s extremely unlikely Lugo is going to allow a home run at Kauffman Stadium in Game 3. (He’s only allowed two home runs there since July.) And because Stanton’s only value to the team is to hit home runs, there’s no reason to use him as the designated hitter. Start Jasson Dominguez there. At least if Dominguez gets on base, he’s capable of stealing a base, running harder than a light jog and isn’t a risk to ruin a rally.

10. Joe Torre always called Game 2 of any series the most important game. In Game 2 you have the opportunity to take a commanding lead or an opportunity to tie the series up. (It’s why Andy Pettitte was always tabbed with starting Game 2 during the glory days.) The Yankees blew their opportunity to take a commanding lead thanks to a disastrous start and a lackluster offensive effort. They can’t afford to have either of those on Wednesday. If they do, they’ll be playing for their season on Thursday.

The Yankees’ bats were quiet and Carlos Rodon got rocked as the Royals won Game 2 of the ALDS 4-2.

Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.

1. I knew the Yankees were potentially in trouble for Game 2 long before it began on Monday night. I knew as much because Carlos Rodon said as much when discussing his emotions leading into his first Yankees postseason start: “It can propel me to very high highs and super low lows.”

The last thing any fan wants is the starting pitcher of their favorite baseball team having the mindset of a touring member of Guns N’ Roses during their heyday. You’re hoping your team’s starting pitcher is composed and of a sound mind. You want to be confident he’s going to keep it together and not wear his emotions on his sleeve with each pitch in such a pressurized, high-stakes environment. A Joba Chamberlain 360 twirl into a fist pump after stranding a pair in a big spot? Sure. But going wild after striking out the leadoff hitter of the game? Walking around the infield yelling after striking out the second batter of the game? Roaring like a lion marking his pride’s territory after retiring the side in order IN THE FIRST INNING?

Rodon was maniacal on the mound in the first inning on Monday night. He was experiencing the “very high high” he spoke about before the start. The Stadium was buzzing, he was locating his fastball and everyone was biting on his slider. He was experiencing the moment he dreamed he would get to experience when he signed a $162 million contract with the Yankees. The moment he talked about when he got hurt in spring training last year and said: “I’m not here to pitch until the All-Star break. I’m here to pitch well into October. If this was down the stretch, yeah, I would be going for sure. If it’s October 5 or the ALDS, I’m taking the ball.”

2. The “very high high” slowly wore off. While Rodon kept the Royals off the board in the second and third, he couldn’t produce a shutdown inning in the fourth after the Yankees opened the scoring. Instead, he got beat by Salvador Perez, unraveled and never recovered, falling into the “super low low” stupor he warned could take place. The kind of stupor Yankees fans have grown accustomed to their so-called “No. 2” starter having when the slightest adversity hits him. The kind of adversity that led to him blowing a kiss to heckling fans in Anaheim last year. The kind of adversity that led to him turning his back on his pitching coach during a mound visit at the end of last season. The kind of adversity that led to him crying in the dugout this season. The kind of meltdown that led to him allowing eight earned runs without recording an out against these Royals in his final start of last season.

After Perez homered to tie the game, Rodon couldn’t put Yuli Gurriel (who is still hitting against the Yankees in the postseason like he did as an Astro) away with two strikes and allowed a single. He threw a wild pitch with Gurriel on first and allowed an RBI single to Tommy Pham on a 1-2 pitch. He followed that by giving up an RBI single to Garrett Hampson (owner of a career 72 OPS+) and eventually got charged with a fourth earned run when Ian Hamilton allowed Hampson to score. Rodon took his clean slate for the postseason and took a dump on it. Rather than rewrite his Yankees tenure with a dominant postseason, he crumbled under the pressure of the postseason. His final line: 3.2 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 0 BB, 7 K, 1 HR.

3. “It’s just unfortunate,” Rodon said. “I wanted to be better than that.”

But he wasn’t. Rodon couldn’t get out of the fourth inning. It was progress from his only other postseason start, when as a White Sox in 2022 he couldn’t get out of the third inning (2.2 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 3 K). The Yankees signed the guy capable of striking out the Royals’ 1-2-3 hitters on 12 pitches in the first. They feared the guy who allowed the bottom of the order put the game out of reach could show up. And he did. Following Gerrit Cole’s miserable effort in Game 1, Rodon’s postseason debut as a Yankee was a disaster.

4. It was a disaster made worse by an offense that is conducting its annual October disappearing act. (Well, annual minus last October when they couldn’t make the postseason in a six-team format.) The Yankees failed to produce an extra-base hit in the game until Jazz Chisholm’s home run in the ninth inning. The Yankees’ 1-2-3 hitters combined for an infield single by Aaron Judge, who has decided to bring fuel to the fire to combat the argument he can’t hit in the postseason. Giancarlo Stanton continues to run like he has two torn hamstrings and unless the Royals are going to walk in runs like they did in Game 1, it seems like the Yankees are never going to score. The Yankees went 2-for-13 with runners in scoring position in Game 1. In Game 2, they went 1-for-6. They’re now 3-for-19 in the series.

5. “That’s playoff baseball,” Aaron Boone said. “The heat is turned up, and you’ve got to be able to slow it things down.”

The Boone Yankees have never been able to “slow things down” with “the heat turned up.” The performance you have seen from the 2024 Yankees through two postseason games is the performance the 2018-2022 Yankees produced in the postseason.

6. “We had a lot of opportunities tonight,” Chisholm said. “They just got lucky.”

Chisholm’s comments were so delusional I thought Boone or Nestor Cortes said them. Chisholm’s comments were every bit as foolish as Rodon acting like he was three outs away from pitching the Yankees to a championship in the first inning only to be removed in the fourth. Every bit as foolish as Judge walking through Fenway Park blaring “New York, New York” on a boom box after the team’s Game 2 win in the 2018 ALDS only to then lose the next two games of the series at home by a combined score of 20-4. Every bit as foolish as Boone saying, “The league has closed the gap” on the Yankees after the team’s 2021 wild-card game loss. Every bit as foolish as Luis Severino saying Alex Bregman “got lucky” because he hit his game-winning home run only 91 mph in Game 2 of the 2022 ALCS. Every bit as foolish as Boone admitting he used video from the 2004 ALCS to motivate his team in the 2022 ALCS. Every bit as foolish as Harrison Bader saying, “No concern,” when asked about being 4 1/2 games out of a playoff spot in 2023. If the Yankees don’t win two of the next three games, Chisholm’s comments will be the latest in a long list of delusional line coming from this era’s clubhouse.

The Royals didn’t get lucky. They were the better team. They drove in runs, got extra-base hits, stifled Juan Soto and enhanced the idea that Judge is Mr. May. The Yankees lost a game started by a lefty that gladly walked the top of the order and challenged the rest of the order to beat him, and they couldn’t. Then the left-handed relievers of the Royals did the same. The Royals weren’t lucky. They were smart and they executed their game plan.

7. “If I’m not hitting 1.000,” Judge said, “I’m not feeling good.”

How about you start with hitting .250? Something you haven’t done since the 2019 ALDS.

“I just gotta keep getting on base for the guys behind me.”

Well, that’s not working.

“If they get on [in front of me],” Judge said, “I gotta drive them in.”

They are getting on in front of you. In both Games 1 and 2, you came up with runners on first and second and no outs in the first inning and struck out both times.

“We haven’t been able to come through,” Judge said. “We’ll do it next time.”

Just like you did in the other seven postseasons you have been a part of?

8. The only truly bright spot for the Yankees in the first two games has been the bullpen, which has had to get 28 of 54 outs.

Cole and Rodon this series: 8.2 IP, 14 H, 8 R, 7 ER, 2 BB, 11 K , 2 HR.
Yankees bullpen this series: 9.1 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 11 K.

Other than that, everything I feared about this Yankees team in the postseason is coming to fruition. All of their flaws I worried about showing up in October have. The offense has been putrid led by Judge, their big-name starting pitching has been abysmal, the infield defense has been shaky and their manager hasn’t done anything to elevate their chances.

9. Now the supposed inferior Royals (who clinched a postseason berth in Game 161) control the series. They have Seth Lugo going in Game 3. The same Seth Lugo who turned in seven shutout innings with 10 strikeouts against the Yankees four weeks ago in the Bronx. The Yankees will counter with Clarke Schmidt, a starter they didn’t feel confident in announcing until the day of Game 2. A starter who has never made a postseason start and whose three career postseason appearances in 2022 (in relief) were horrendous. I think Schmidt will be fine. I’m worried about what the offense will or won’t do against Lugo.

10. Things can change so quickly in the best-of-5 division series. A day ago, Yankees fans were harping on the fact the Yankees played like shit, but still came away with an ugly Game 1 win. After Game 2, the mood is different.

The Royals’ win in Game 2 guaranteed Cole a second start in this series to redeem himself. It made possible the petrifying idea Rodon could go again in a winner-take-all Game 5 at the Stadium on Saturday night. If the high-paid and overpaid names on the Yankees play and pitch to their abilities it won’t get to that terrifying Game 5 scenario. If the offense would show up for the first time in this core’s history it won’t get to that. I pray it doesn’t get to that. But if the Yankees lose Game 3 in Kansas City, I will be praying it gets to that.