Yankees Offseason – Page 12 – Keefe To The City

Blogs • Spring Cleaning • Yankees • Yankees Offseason

Feb 26, 2020

Spring Cleaning: Yankees Failed to Plan for Starting Pitching Depth

The Yankees knew Luis Severino ended the season with a forearm injury, James Paxton with a back issue and Masahiro Tanaka needing bone spurs removed, and they still chose to not bolster their starting pitching.

It’s Wednesday and that means it’s Spring Cleaning time. Unfortunately, all of the thoughts this week are in regards to Luis Severino’s season-ending injury, the poor handling of his injury and the poor planning which now has the Yankees scrambling to build a rotation.

Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees as usual.

1. A day later and the Luis Severino news still sucks. (I wrote about my reaction and feeling to the news yesterday.) It’s going to suck all season. There’s no finding another Severino during the season unless Deivi Garcia somehow does in 2020 what Severino did in 2015. Other than Garcia going from a 20-year-old who struggled in his brief time at Triple-A to front-end major league starer, there aren’t any options. The free-agent options are the equivalent to the movie options in a DVD bin at a convenient store, and unless the Yankees think they can win the Powerball and Mega Millions on the same day by completely reclamating someone like Matt Harvey or Andrew Cashner, there’s no one worthy of signing. The trade deadline options might be OK if the right teams fall apart before the end of July, but that’s five months away.

2. This was the 2020 Yankees’ expected Opening Day rotation:

Gerrit Cole
Luis Severino
James Paxton
Masahiro Tanaka
J.A. Happ

This is now the 2020 Yankees’ expected Opening Day rotation:

Gerrit Cole
Masahiro Tanaka
J.A. Happ
Jordan Montgomery
Opener or journeyman or rookie with no MLB starting experience

3. The Yankees handled Severino’s injury as poorly as possible, but they also handled planning for starting pitching depth as poorly as possible. All winter the Yankees had the opportunity to sign major-league arms and all winter they knew Severino ended the season with forearm discomfort. They also knew James Paxton battled a back injury in the postseason, Masahiro Tanaka needed to have bone spurs removed from his right arm and J.A. Happ was coming off the worst season of his career. Despite Gerrit Cole being the only healthy and productive member of their upcoming staff, the Yankees chose not to add to their starting pitching depth. Unless you count signing Nick Tropeano and Chad Bettis as adding to their starting pitching depth. Last season, Tropeano pitched 13 2/3 innings in the majors and allowed 18 hits, 15 earned runs, six walks and six home runs, while Bettis had a 6.08 ERA in 63 2/3 innings and has a 5.08 ERA over the last four years and 416 1/3 innings.

4. The Yankees are most likely going to open the season with one of those two as their fifth starter. Garcia or Mike King or Clarke Schmidt might be the answer at some point, but I doubt the Yankees will use any of the three as the No. 5 starter to begin the season. King could use more time at Triple-A, Garcia is 20 and was knocked around in 40 innings at Triple-A and Schmidt has 19 innings at Double-A on his resume. Get ready for Bettis against Rays at the Trop in the fifth game of the season.

5. The other option is to use an opener, pairing Chad Green with say Luis Cessa. Using Green as the opener hurts the bullpen and the ability to use him in high-leverage situations later in the game, but it does prevent Bettis or Tropeano from getting the ball. If a rotation spot isn’t going to go to King, Garcia or Schmidt, which I don’t think it will, then my pick is to use an opener as the fifth starter. However, I think the Yankees will see if they can get mediocre results out of Bettis or Tropeano before moving to an opener and weakening their bullpen strength.

6. The rotation is a mess, and there’s a better chance it gets messier than there is that it gets better. There’s more than four weeks until Opening Day. That’s a lot of time and a lot of spring training games for more injuries to ruin this pitching staff and this team. There’s no spinning the news of losing Severino into a positive. If you’re optimistic because Paxton is expected back after the first month of the season, I just want to remind you that he’s never pitched a full season in the majors in his career, and based off his injury history, it’s more likely this current injured list appearance isn’t going to be his only one of the season. That’s not pessimistic, that’s based on his six-year career in the majors and his career-high for regular-season innings being 160 1/3.

7. Severino first complained of this same forearm issue after his ALCS Game 3 start on Oct. 15. The Yankees’ medical staff examined him after that start and cleared him to pitch in a potential Game 7 in the ALCS, which never happened. During the offseason, the issue subsided because Severino WASN’T PITCHING. As soon as spring training began and he started pitching again, the forearm issue returned. So rather than realizing Severino needed surgery back in October, the Yankees realized it four months later. So instead of being ready in time for the 2021 season, Severino will now miss part of the 2021 season. The botched handling of the injury in October was one final parting gift from the medical staff which oversaw the most injured team in history.

8. It’s not like this is the first time the team botched an injury with Severino either. In spring training a year ago, he hurt his shoulder. While rehabbing the shoulder injury, he suffered a lat injury, which the team later claimed it was unaware of. When Severino suffered a setback, the team admitted they should have had him undergo an MRI prior to throwing again to make sure he was actually healed. The injuries were going to keep him out for a large part of last season, but the handling of the injuries is what kept him out for all but three starts of it. Now it’s the handling that will keep him out for at least part of 2021 as well.

9. Severino’s absence means a spot on the Opening Day 26-man roster is open. It’s been two weeks since I predicted the Opening Day roster, so here’s the latest prediction.

Gary Sanchez
Luke Voit
DJ LeMahieu
Gio Urshela
Gleyber Torres
Giancarlo Stanton
Brett Gardner
Aaron Judge
Miguel Andujar
Mike Tauchman
Tyler Wade
Mike Ford
Kyle Higashioka
Gerrit Cole
Masahiro Tanaka
J.A. Happ
Jordan Montgomery
Chad Bettis
Aroldis Chapman
Zack Britton
Adam Ottavino
Chad Green
Tommy Kahnle
Jonathan Loaisiga
Luis Cessa
Jonathan Holder

10. The good news … well, there isn’t any good news regarding Severino missing the entire season. The bright side … OK, there isn’t a bright side either. Let’s go with at least … at least the league is top-heavy once again. The only thing keeping me from creating spring, summer and falls plans that have nothing to do with baseball is that the Yankees should still easily win the division and reach the postseason because of how non-competitive most of the teams in baseball will once again be. I’m not worried about the Yankees getting to the postseason, I’m worried about what they will do once they get there. The championship window is open right now and it won’t stay open forever. This will be the fourth season with Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez as full-time players. DJ LeMahieu, Tanaka and Paxton are impending free agents. Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Hicks will undoubtedly age poorly, and the division isn’t going to be a cakewalk forever. This season was going to be the Yankees’ best chance in the last four to win the World Series, and now the chance of them winning is much less. The Yankees can still win the World Series, but it’s going to be a lot harder without Severino.

***

Download and subscribe to the Keefe To The City Yankees Podcast.

***

My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!

Feb 25, 2020

Yankees Podcast: Feeling Sick Over Luis Severino

There’s no guest today. It’s just me being sad, frustrated, annoyed and mad about Luis Severino missing 2020.

Luis Severino needs Tommy John surgery and will miss the entire 2020 season. The Yankees’ rotation is a mess and there’s still more than a month until spring training.

There’s no guest today. It’s just me being sad, frustrated, annoyed and mad about Severino missing the 2020 season.

***

My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!

Blogs • Yankees • Yankees Offseason

Feb 25, 2020

I’m Sick Over Yankees’ Loss of Luis Severino

The second Brian Cashman pointed to the spot on his own forearm where Luis Severino complained of pain while talking to reporters last week, I knew Luis Severino wouldn’t throw a pitch for the 2020 Yankees.

I knew it. The second Brian Cashman pointed to the spot on his own forearm where Luis Severino complained of pain while talking to reporters last week, I knew it. I knew Severino wouldn’t throw a pitch for the 2020 Yankees, and the news on Tuesday confirmed it. The 2019 Yankees didn’t play a single game with their expected roster, and now the 2020 Yankees won’t play a single game with their expected roster as well.

I’m sick over this Severino news. I don’t mean I’m sick of Yankees getting hurt, which I’m also sick of. I mean I’m sick as in I physically don’t feel well. Even though I expected this news, my heart still sank when I opened Twitter on Tuesday afternoon and my expectations were confirmed. I feel bad as a Yankees fan who wants to watch the team built on paper actually play, and I feel bad for Severino, who is the pitching face of the core of Baby Bombers and who had last season ruined by shoulder and lat problems only to now have this season taken from him as well. The next time Severino pitches for the Yankees in 2021, he will have pitched 20 1/3 major league innings since the end of the 2018 season.

I realize pitchers get hurt and the old saying of “You can never have enough pitching” is a saying for a reason, but when will it end? Seriously, when will it end? After setting the single-season record for most players placed on the injured list, the Yankees began spring training down 40 percent of their rotation and now they will be without their No. 2 starter for the entire season. On top of that, their best player is dealing with a shoulder injury that has held him back from batting.

To make matters worse, Severino first complained of this same forearm issue after his ALCS Game 3 start on Oct. 15. The Yankees’ medical staff examined him after that start and cleared him to pitch in a potential Game 7 in the ALCS, which never happened. During the offseason, the issue subsided because Severino WASN’T PITCHING. As soon as spring training began and he started pitching again, the forearm issue returned. So rather than realizing Severino needed surgery back in October, the Yankees realized it four months later. So instead of being ready in time for the 2021 season, Severino will now miss part of the 2021 season. The botched handling of the injury in October was one final parting gift from the medical staff which oversaw the most injured team in history.

It’s not like this is the first time the team botched an injury with Severino either. In spring training a year ago, he hurt his shoulder. While rehabbing the shoulder injury, he suffered a lat injury, which the team later claimed it was unaware of. When Severino suffered a setback, the team admitted they should have had him undergo an MRI prior to throwing again to make sure he was actually healed. The injuries were going to keep him out for a large part of last season, but the handling of the injuries is what kept him out for all but three starts of it.

So now the Yankees will begin the 2021 season without their No. 2 and 3 starters. 37-year-old J.A. Happ coming off the worst season of his career is now the No. 3 starter. That means Jordan Montgomery, who pitched four innings in the majors last season, is the No. 4 starter. The No. 5 starter? It could be journeyman Chad Bettis, who had a respectable 6.08 ERA for the 2019 Rockies and who has a 5.08 ERA over the last four seasons. It could be Deivi Garcia who has never thrown a pitch in the majors. It could be some opener combination featuring Chad Green, which then hurts the bullpen. There’s a good chance if Nestor Cortes hadn’t been sent to the Mariners would be getting work as a Yankee every fifth day for the second straight season.

The Yankees’ rotation is a mess, and there’s a better chance it gets messier than there is that it gets better. There’s more than four weeks until Opening Day. That’s a lot of time and a lot of spring training games for more injuries to ruin this pitching staff and this team. If you’re holding out for the return of James Paxton, consider that he’s never pitched a full season in the majors in his career, and it’s more likely this isn’t his only injured list appearance of the season than it is that once he returns he will be healthy through the end of the year.

This spring was supposed to be about getting excited to watch the odds-on favorite to win the World Series beat the crap out of the top-heavy league, steamroll their way to a second straight division title and finally overcome the Astros in the ALCS on their way to their first World Series appearance in 11 years. Instead it’s once again about injuries. I’m not worried about winning the division and reaching the postseason. I’m worried about winning in the postseason, and the loss of Severino makes it much harder to win in the postseason.

***

My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!

Feb 24, 2020

Monday Mail: Yankees’ Starting Pitching Injuries Are a Problem

It’s been a few days since the Yankees last reported an injury. The good news is there aren’t any new injuries. The bad news is Luis Severino and James Paxton are still injured.

It’s been a few days since the Yankees last reported an injury. I feel like the team needs one of those signs in warehouses recognizing how many days since the company’s last incident. The good news is there aren’t any new injuries. The bad news is Luis Severino and James Paxton are still injured.

This week’s questions and comments are related to the team being unable to rid themselves of the injury bug.

Email your questions to KeefeToTheCity@gmail.com or engage on the Keefe To The City Facebook page or on Twitter to be included in the next Monday Mail.

Everybody’s overreacting. All we have to do is play decent the first two months then get some arms bck. We will be fine. The rest of the division is mediocre at best. We were without two pitchers last year and won over 100 games. – Joe

I don’t think anyone is overreacting to the Yankees’ pitching injuries. The fact is 40 percent of the current rotation is out, and it’s not like it’s the Yankees’ fourth and fifth starters they’re without, it’s their No. 2 and 3 starters.

Yes, the Yankees will be fine in terms of steamrolling the AL East, winning around 100 games and reaching the postseason. But the goal isn’t to win around 100 games and the division and reach the postseason. The goal is to win the World Series. Somewhere along the way I think that goal has been diminished. Doing what the team did last year or the year before isn’t good enough. Not when the championship drought is going on 11 years and the Yankees are about to begin their fourth season with their current core. At some point the Baby Bombers won’t be babies anymore and with each season we’re getting closer to that point.

The Yankees need Luis Severino and James Paxton to win the World Series. Otherwise eight months from now Yankees fans will be watching another team win a championship and saying what the Yankees need to do in the coming offseason to get back on top of the baseball world.

Luis Severino got his bread and now he’s hurt all the time. Same with Aaron Hicks. – Kevin

Pitchers get hurt and when you throw as hard as Severino does and have for as long as he has, and when you have the drastic increase in workload, injuries happen. They happen even without those things. Here are Severino’s innings since 2015, including the minors and majors (regular season and postseason) with Severino’s age in parentheses:

2015 (21): 161.2
2016 (22): 151.1
2017 (23): 209.1
2018 (24): 198.1
2019 (25): 21.1

Last season, Severino managed to come back and threw just 12 innings before being thrust into the highest leverage of situations with postseason starts. His current injury was mentioned after his ALCS Game 3 start and he was cleared to start a potential Game 7. The injury went away over the offseason because he was no longer pitching and then returned this spring training when he started pitching again.

Maybe we’ll find out this week it’s nothing more than something that needs rest. I don’t think that will be the case, but I’m hoping it is.

However, don’t ever compare him to Aaron Hicks.

I guess we should have gone after another starter. – Donnie

I do wish the Yankees had splurged and gotten themselves another true major league starter the same way I wish they would every offseason since you can never have enough pitching. Now that they’re down two starters and will most likely be to begin the season, it’s going to be up to the team’s depth to fill in like it did last season.

J.A. Happ is now the team’s No. 3 starter and that means Jordan Montgomery is the No. 4, which leaves the No. 5 spot open. If it’s not Deivi Garcia, it could be journeyman Chad Bettis, another prospect or maybe we see Chad Green as an opener again to begin the season. The Yankees have options for how they can patch together a rotation, but we won’t have any real insight into how they plan on doing so until the end of spring training.

What happened to the new conditioning coach? – Barbara

After setting the all-time single-season record for most players placed on the injured list last year, the Yankees did a complete overhaul of their training staff. Both the Paxton and Severino injuries were holdovers from last season so there is nothing yet to blame the new medical staff for.

In an ideal world we won’t have to question what measures the Yankees took to prevent such an unprecedented amount of injuries and the team will get healthy and stay healthy. Unfortunately, that ideal world isn’t realistic.

Don’t be surprised if Gerrit Cole doesn’t live up to the money the Yankees are paying him. Look what happened with the money they spent last year with Giancarlo Stanton on the bench for most of the postseason. – Norman

I have no doubt Gerrit Cole will live up his talent and ability, at least in the first few years of his deal. Asking him to maintain his current level for nine years just isn’t something that can be done. If the Yankees win a single championship during Cole’s tenure, his contract would have been worth it. Now I want them to win multiple championships over the next nine years, but let’s start with one since it’s been more than a decade since the last.

The thing that worries me about Cole is his health the way every the health of every Yankees pitcher worries me. It’s rare a starting pitcher doesn’t experience some issue or issues during his career and Cole is no different. To this point in his career, he’s been about as healthy as you can ask anyone with his velocity and workload to be, and it’s why he was able to get nine years out of the Yankees. As long as Cole is healthy, I expect him to be one of, if not the best pitcher in baseball.

As for Giancarlo Stanton, his contract is actually a bargain compared to the rest of the market … when he’s healthy. The problem is he wasn’t healthy last season, playing in 18 regular-season games and missing the final games of the postseason. I have said I’m giving Stanton a clean slate to begin the season and will try my best to hold back on negative comments and criticism for as long as he lets me. The first two years of Stanton as a Yankee haven’t gone well. Luckily for him, he has a lot of time left to change the narrative on his Yankees career.

Email your questions to KeefeToTheCity@gmail.com or engage on the Keefe To The City Facebook page or on Twitter to be included in the next Monday Mail.

***

My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!

Feb 20, 2020

Yankees Podcast: Another Day, Another Injury

Chris Stacy of NYY Sports Talk joined me to talk about the Luis Severino injury news.

This season was supposed to be different. The Yankees weren’t supposed to challenge the record they set in 2019 for the most player placed on the injured in a single season in history, but here we are. After James Paxton went down with a back procedure, Aaron Judge was shut down from hitting with a shoulder issue and now Luis Severino is shut down indefinitely with forearm discomfort.

Chris Stacy of NYY Sports Talk joined me to talk about the Luis Severino forearm injury, the never-ending injury problem with the team, J.A. Happ suddenly becoming the No. 3 starter, if the Yankees’ core is injury prone and how worried Yankees fans should be right now about the team’s health.

***

My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!