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NFL Week 10 Picks

The regular season is more than halfway over and there’s not a lot of time to get the picks back on track. This week is all about simplifying things.

When I look back at my picks at the end of each week, I have no idea why I picked the way I did on multiple games. It’s a tradition like no other. No matter how much I try to simplify things, I’m still left questioning myself each week.

I shouldn’t have picked the 49ers to cover 10 on a short week on the road.

I should have listened to myself and my lack of trust for Kirk Cousins even if the Vikings were facing a backup quarterback.

I should have known the Jets would lose to Ryan Fitzpatrick and the winless Dolphins.

I should have recognized the Browns facing a rookie quarterback making his first NFL start wouldn’t suddenly make them not the Browns.

I should have followed my belief that the Chargers aren’t as bad their record and are the same team that went to the divisional round last year, especially at home.

I should have followed the easy storyline that the Patriots always struggle against the Ravens.

These were very avoidable mistakes, but they were mistakes nonetheless, and instead of starting to dig myself out of my under-.500 hole I dug further in the wrong direction. This week is about simplifying things. I need to treat each NFL week as the one-week season it should be treated as. I need to get back to the basics and put together a winning week. It’s already Week 10 and time is running is out to get back to respectability.

(Home team in caps)

Los Angeles -1 over OAKLAND
I don’t think the Raiders are any good, no matter how many times they have screwed me this season. I do think the Chargers are good, no matter how many times they have screwed me this season. If the Chargers are going to return to the playoffs, they have to win this game. If they lose, they will be three games back in the loss column to the Chiefs for the division and three games back in the loss column for the second wild-card spot.

CHICAGO -2.5 over Detroit
The Bears don’t deserve to make the playoffs, and they won’t. But it wouldn’t be a Bears season if they didn’t provide their fan base with an abundance of heartache. The four straight losses, 3-5 start and current last-place standing in the NFC North isn’t the type of heartache I’m talking about. I’m talking about doing enough to get back into the postseason picture in the NFC and then fall short in the final weeks of the season.

Baltimore -10 over CINCINNATI
The Dolphins foolishly beating the Jets and going from having the first overall pick to the fourth at the end of the game led to a sideline celebration in Miami and Brian Flores getting drenched in Gatorade. But the real celebration was happening in Cincinnati where I like to think the Bengals front office was dumping Gatorade on each other following the Dolphins’ win. The Bengals are now the only remaining winless team in the league and control their own destiny to securing the first overall pick in the draft and having a chance to draft Tua Tagovailoa and change the future of their franchise. Let’s see how the Bengals handle their chance with the No. 1 pick.

Buffalo +2.5 over CLEVELAND
The Browns are favored. The 2-6 Browns are favored to beat the 6-2 Bills. I had to check the line three times to make sure I was reading it right, and I am. The Browns are the favorites. It’s been very enjoyable watching the Browns be every bit as bad as the Giants and watching Odell Beckham once again be part of a losing team in a lost season. Beckham has become an afterthought in Cleveland with 575 yards and one touchdown through eight games. And while he might still eclipse the 1,000-yard mark, 1,000 yards for him was always a given. Like a band that once sold out stadiums and areanas and has been resigned to playing college campuses and small clubs, Beckham is no longer who he was a Giant. The non-performance stories like him wearing a watch during games or needing to change his cleats at halftime are now all anyone talks about with him because there’s no on-field performance or moments worth talking about.

NEW ORLEANS -12.5 over Atlanta
There’s going to be a lot of cardboard boxes being packed in the Falcons’ offices in a few weeks. It should have happened the second the team blew the 25-point, second-half lead in the Super Bowl, and because it didn’t, it’s hard to feel sorry for the Falcons for their performance these last three seasons.

New York Giants -2 over NEW YORK JETS
The Embarrassment Bowl. If the Giants win, they improve to 3-7 and the Jets fall to 1-8. If the Jets win, they improve to 2-7 and the Giants fall to 2-8. Even though there’s going to be a winner (though a tie would be a perfect result for this game), there’s no winner in this team. Both teams are losers, led by losers.

TAMPA BAY -4 over Arizona
The Buccaneers are the best 2-6 team in the league. I don’t know that a 2-6 team can be the best anything, but I do feel like the Buccaneers are better than their record, even if Bill Parcells would disagree. The Cardinals franchise is historically bad when it leaves its time zone and dome and has to play on the East Coast and outside, even if that outside is in sunny Florida. This logic led me to pick against the Cardinals when they played at MetLife against the Giants even though it didn’t work out. Bruce Arians isn’t Shurmur and it will work out in this instance.

Kansas City -5.5 over TENNESSEE
I’m picking the Chiefs under the assumption that Patrick Mahomes is going to play. If Mahomes weren’t going to play, I would still pick the Chiefs.

INDIANAPOLIS -10.5 over Miami
The Dolphins did everyone who wants to tease the Colts this week a favor by beating the Jets last week. Had the Dolphins lost again, this line would have probably been at least two touchdowns. Instead, it’s a reasonable six- or seven-point tease.

Carolina +5 over GREEN BAY
I think the quarterback controversy in Carolina was over before there ever got to be one. Cam Newton seems to be done for the season, and even if he he weren’t, how could the Panthers start him over Kyle Allen? Newton has most certainly played his final game for the Panthers, and that idea will become more and more real if the Panthers keep on winning.

Los Angeles Rams -3.5 over PITTSBURGH
The Rams have gotten back on track after their unexpected three-game losing streak. Even if they got back on track at the expense against a bad Falcons team and a league-worst Bengals team, they still got back on track. With a congested NFC playoff picture, the Rams can’t afford another letdown against a truly inferior opponent like the one they had against the Buccaneers, and I don’t think they will have another one.

Minnesota +3 over DALLAS
There isn’t a combination of two “good” teams I trust less. The only “good” win either of these teams has is over the Eagles and that’s not saying much given how the Eagles have performed in the first half of the season. I fully expect Kirk Cousins to screw this game up the way he screws up nearly every game for the Vikings, but the Vikings are the better, more complete team in this matchup and when the better, more complete team is getting three points, you take them.

Seattle +6 over SAN FRANCISCO
It’s the head coach who OK’d a pass on the goal line in the Super Bowl despite having the best running back in the league on his team against the now-head coach who was the offensive coordinator for a 25-point blown lead in the Super Bowl. If only Dan Quinn could somehow be part of this game. He probably will have the chance to be next season when he’s looking for a coordinator job after he’s finally fired by the Falcons. Six points in a divisional matchup with the division essentially on the line is way too many.

Last week: 7-7-0
Season: 62-72-1

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NFL Week 9 Picks

The season has become a one-month season at best for the Giants for all but one of the last seven years. Combine the Giants’ losing with a 5-10 picks week like last week and I wonder why I even watch this sport.

It’s been three years since the Giants played a meaningful game after October. Sure, last season they weren’t mathematically eliminated as far as December, but it was going to take the biggest miracle of all miracles for them to reach the postseason and that miracle certainly didn’t happen.

The NFL season has become a one-month season at best for the Giants and Giants fans like me for all but one of the last seven years and it’s miserable. Combine the Giants’ losing ways with a 5-10 picks week like last week and I wonder why I even watch this sport. Maybe the young and exciting, but very inconsistent Rangers will give me something to do after the holidays to get through the dark days of winter until March Madness and Opening Day. because once again, it won’t be the Giants.

(Home team in caps)

San Francisco -10 over ARIZONA
A 10-point line to open the week isn’t the greatest when you’re coming off a five-win week and need to start putting together a lot of Ws to dig out of a 10-games-under-.500-hole. I know taking the points on the road on a short week goes against everything I know about the NFL, but I can’t talk myself into the Cardinals.

JACKSONVILLE -1 over Houston
Flip a coin. I’m going with the Jaguars in their second home of London against yet another overrated Texans team. (I hate this game.)

BUFFALO -10.5 over Washington
Dwayne Haskins’ first career start is coming on the road in Buffalo against the Bills’ defense. That’s all.

Minnesota -4.5 over KANSAS CITY
I trust Kirk Cousins as much as I trust Pat Shurmur to challenge a play worth challenging. So needing Cousins to cover four points at hostile Arrowhead isn’t exactly an ideal situation. I’m banking on the Vikings’ defense being able to shut down a Matt Moore-led offense, and if they can’t do that then the Vikings are even bigger frauds than I think they are with one of their six wins being even remotely close to solid.

New York Jets -3.5 over MIAMI
If the Jets can’t beat the Dolphins then Adam Gase needs to be fired immediately following the game. I mean immediately after the team leaves the field. No ride home with the team on the plane. Fired. In the same building he was fired from a year ago.

PHILADELPHIA -4.5 over Chicago
As long as Mitch Trubisky is starting games for the Bears, I will be picking against the Bears.

Indianapolis -1 over PITTSBURGH
For some reason I like this Colts team. I continue to pick them to cover and win, bet on them and put them in teasers. They’re not that good if they’re even any good at all, but for some unknown reason I continue to trust and back them. I can’t explain it, but there’s very little that can be explained with regards to anything in this league.

CAROLINA -3.5 over Tennessee
As long as Ryan Tannehill is starting games for the Titans, I will be picking against the Titans.

OAKLAND +2.5 over Detroit
I’m done picking against the Raiders. Even though they’re not “good”, they’re good enough to keep screwing me over in parlays and teasers, and the only answer is to now starting picking in favor of them.

SEATTLE -4.5 over Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay shocked everyone when they went across the country and beat the Rams earlier this season. There’s a difference between being play a road game against the Rams and their “fans” and one against the Seahawks and their fans.

Cleveland -4 over DENVER
Baker Mayfield has regressed in his second season in the league, which isn’t what you want from the No. 1 overall pick and your franchise quarterback. Between Mayfield, Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen, the supposed great quarterback draft class of 2018 is look anything but that. The Browns are bad and I enjoy watching them lose, but even these Browns should be able to win in Denver against a quarterback making his first NFL start.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS +4 over Green Bay
I still think the Chargers are good. No, they’re not going to win a championship, but they’re good enough to be a playoff team and win a playoff game like they were last season. At some point though, they’re going to want to actually start putting wins together in order to be a playoff team and win a playoff game.

New England -3 over BALTIMORE
Two teams I hate and one of them has to win. The Patriots don’t usually play well against the Ravens, but it’s hard to pick against this Patriots defense right now, which looks the way it did in the early years of the dynasty.

Dallas -6.5 over NEW YORK GIANTS
When the Giants scored a touchdown on their first possession of the season against the Cowboys, I thought this season might amount to something. It didn’t. The Cowboys aren’t very good, but the Giants suck, and I can’t see a scenario where the Cowboys don’t convert third downs all game against the awful Giants defense.

Last week: 5-10-0
Season: 55-65-1

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NFL Week 8 Picks

Unfortunately, it’s going to be a long, uneventful, meaningless final two-plus months of the season once again.

The Yankees’ season is over and the Giants certainly aren’t going to carry me through the holidays. That means the Rangers, who have lost five straight since back-to-back wins to open the season, are going to have to pick up the slack of the Giants yet again to make the winter less miserable. It’s not exactly a great position to be in as a sports fan.

Things could be worse. There are plenty of fans who don’t have the luxury of being a fan of the most successful franchise in the history of professional sports, and who have losers across the board in all of the major sports. Thankfully, I have the Yankees because with the Rangers in the middle of a rebuild, though one with a lot of promise, it’s still a rebuild, and with the Giants looking like they are several years away from competing, let alone contending, the Yankees at least provide winning regular seasons and lengthy postseasons even when they fall short of a championship.

The Giants are headed for another losing season and what will be their sixth in the last seven years. They’re most likely a five-win team for the second straight year and headed for a Top 6 pick in the draft for a third straight year. Forget trying to reach the postseason this year, changing the losing culture that has grown on this franchise over the last seven years should be the goal. And the only way that goal can be achieved is by Daniel Jones getting game experience, the young defense showing progress and Pat Shurmur not being the head coach after this season. That’s all that’s left in this Giants season. Unfortunately, it’s going to be a long, uneventful, meaningless final two-plus months of the season once again.

***

(Home team in caps)

MINNESOTA -16.5 over Washington
You’re never supposed to take the side of needing to cover a three-score game in the NFL. But I think that old rule goes out the window when you’re dealing with some of the teams we’re dealing with in 2019 like these Redskins and the Dolphins. Maybe the Vikings don’t go cover and I start the week with a loss. I’d rather accept that than taking the Redskins only to see them have trouble moving the ball over the 50 once again.

LOS ANGELES RAMS -13 over Cincinnati
Last week I wrote: What’s the best cure for a three-game losing streak? A game against the Falcons. It was indeed the best cure for the Rams’ rough patch. The Rams won by 27 points on the road to get back in the win column for the first time since Week 3 and now they welcome a winless Bengals team before their bye week. This one is going to get out of hand.

ATLANTA +6.5 over Seattle
I don’t believe in these Seahawks and I certainly don’t trust them. Sure, I trust the Falcons even less than the Seahawks and less than any team not from Miami, Washington D.C. or Cincinnati, but with the Falcons on the brink of tearing their entire franchise apart and starting over, I feel like they will finally deliver an adequate performance. If they can’t … start the demolition, and start it with Dan Quinn, even if it’s nearly three years late.

BUFFALO -1.5 over Philadelphia
The Eagles suck. Congratulations, they overcame an early 17-point deficit to beat the Redskins in Week 1, beat the Jets with their third-string quarterback and somehow pulled off a win on the road against the Packers. Their losses, a loss in Atlanta, which is the Falcons’ only win, a loss at home to the Lions, an 18-point rout at the hands of the Vikings and an embarrassing 37-10 blowout in Dallas far outweigh their one good win, and while they might make the playoffs because they play in the worst division in the league, it doesn’t change the fact that they suck, and teams that suck generally lose to good teams.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS -3.5 over Chicago
Like the Eagles, the Bears suck. Two franchises who went into the season with Super Bowl aspirations couldn’t be farther from looking like contenders as we near the halfway point. I don’t know what it will take for the Bears to realize Mitch Trubisky isn’t a starting quarterback, but unfortunately, it’s most likely going to take a mediocre season and a free-agent signing or trade. The Bears’ defense might be the best in football, but when it’s on the field for the majority of games, only getting a break on the Bears’ three-and-outs, it won’t be able to sustain its performance all season.

DETROIT -6.5 over New York Giants
I’m done picking the Giants to cover for the rest of the season aside from their games against the Dolphins and Redskins. What I watched last week was the worst Giants performance of the Pat Shurmur era and one of the worst I have seen in my life, and when you lose as much as the Giants have in recent years, that’s saying something. This team will continue to lose as long as Shurmur is head coach and against the league’s better teams, like the Lions, they will lose big.

New York Jets +6.5 over JACKSONVILLE
The Jets are a joke. J-O-K-E, JOKE, JOKE, JOKE! I thought they could cover against the Patriots last week, keep the score close and possibly even pull off an upset win. What a fool I was. Sam Darnold played what better be the worst game of his career as he completed just 11 of 32 passes for 86 yards with four interceptions and one lost fumble in the 33-0 loss and the Jets never had a chance. For as bad as the Jets were last week, I still think they will rebound, go on a run and reel their fans back in. If they can upset the Jaguars, they have the Dolphins, Giants, Redskins, Raiders, Bengals and Dolphins again to follow. The Jets will be part of the postseason picture at the beginning of December. Then they will inevitably let their fans down again.

NEW ORLEANS -10.5 over Arizona
The Saints are 5-0 with Teddy Bridgewater as their starting quarterback. 5-0! And that’s not an empty 5-0, that’s five wins against the Seahawks, Cowboys, Buccaneers, Jaguars and Bears. There’s been no cupcake games against the Giants, Redskins, Bengals or Dolphins. Bridgewater continues to add to his future earnings when he gets a chance to be full-time starter in the league and the Saints continue to let Drew Brees sit out and get completely healthy for the second half of the season. A Saints-Patriots Super Bowl is going to happen.

Tampa Bay +2.5 over TENNESSEE
A Ryan Tannehill-led Titans team pulled off a nice home win against the Chargers last week after the Chargers couldn’t get into the end zone in the final minute from the 1. Even with the Titans’ defense being as good as it is, the Titans are still starting Tannehill. One miracle win isn’t going to rewrite his career.

INDIANAPOLIS -5.5 over Denver
I have been a Colts believer all season. I still have no idea what happened at home against the Raiders in Week 4, but I’m going to count that as an anomaly and just a weird game in a league built on weird games. Since that unacceptable loss, the Colts have gone on to win at Arrowhead, where no team wins, and beat the Texans at home by a touchdown. The Colts are for real. Not “for real” as in they can win the AFC since the Patriots are going to win the AFC, but “for real” as in they can reach the playoffs for a second straight year even though their franchise quarterback retired and then lose in the first or second round.

Carolina +5.5 over SAN FRANCISCO
I’m a Kyle Allen fan because I love quarterback controversies and I especially love a quarterback controversy that leads to Cam Newton not being a starting quarterback. Newton can sit out as long as he wants and the Panthers can keep his injury status unclear for as long as they want, but everyone knows it’s only a stalling tactic, so that their once-franchise quarterback isn’t benched even though he deserves to be.

NEW ENGLAND -12.5 over Cleveland
I’m sure the Browns think they were able to tread water at 2-4 prior to their bye week and now that they’re well rested they can go on a run and live up to the hype that was wrongfully created for them prior to the season. The only problem with that is you never want to come out of your bye needing to desperately win a game and have to go to New England to do so. The Browns will be 2-5 after Sunday and then have to go to Denver and then play the Bills. Their season is over.

Oakland +7 over HOUSTON
I can’t believe I’m picking the Raiders to cover. But in a battle of teams, and mostly coaches, who can’t be trusted, taking a touchdown with a team coming out of their bye is the smart thing to do.

Green Bay -3.5 over KANSAS CITY
If Patrick Mahomes were playing, this game would be a lot more interesting and give people a reason to stay up for Sunday Night Football and be tired for work on Monday morning. Unfortunately, he’s not.

PITTSBURGH -13.5 over Miami
I won’t be picking the Dolphins to cover for the rest of this season. Well, maybe against the Giants in Week 15, but that’s it.

Last week: 8-6-0
Season: 50-55-1

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NFL Week 7 Picks

The next 10 Giants games are about next season. Forget the postseason, experience and progress are all that matter now.

The back-to-back losses ended whatever small chance the most optimistic of Giants fans thought the team had of reaching the postseason. Now at 2-4, the Giants are back to where they were before the Daniel Jones era began, and it would most likely take an 8-2 finish to earn a postseason berth.

This season was never supposed to be about the postseason, no matter how much smoke ownership, Dave Gettleman and Pat Shurmur tried to blow up the fan base’s ass during the offseason. This season was always going to be about transitioning from Eli Manning to Jones, seeing if the No. 6 pick would be the franchise quarterback and getting experience for both he and the young defense. The transition happened, Jones looks like he’s the future at quarterback and he’s gaining valuable experience. Now it’s up to the defense to display some signs of progress over the last 10 weeks, and then maybe, next season can be about trying to get back to the postseason.

Even if the Giants were to beat the Cardinals this week (and they should), their schedule still consists of road games at Detroit, Chicago and Philadelphia and games at MetLife against Dallas, the Jets, Green Bay and Philadelphia. The Giants aren’t reeling me back in if they are 3-4 after this week or even 4-4 after next week. Their defense isn’t good enough to reel anyone back in.

The next 10 games are about next season. Forget the postseason, experience and progress are all that matter now. And if the Giants get and show both, no matter what their final record is, it will be a successful season.

***

(Home team in caps)

Kansas City -3 over DENVER
Two weeks ago, this line might have been double digits. But after back-to-back losses, the Chiefs are only giving 3 to the Broncos? I get that it’s on the road and the Denver defense is still solid, but in order to go against the Chiefs here, you would have to think they are more like the team that has lost back-to-back games to the Colts and Texans and less like the team that came within overtime of going to the Super Bowl last season. I’m not ready yet to think they are anything other than the second-best team in the AFC.

Los Angeles Rams -3 over ATLANTA
Like the Chiefs, the Rams have a losing streak of their own, except theirs is a three-game. What’s the best cure for a three-game losing streak? A game against the Falcons.

BUFFALO -17 over Miami
The Dolphins front office had to be sick to their stomach when their team nearly won in Week 6 against the Redskins. Thankfully, for Dolphins fans, the team lost by one point and remains winless and in line to receive the No. 1 pick in the draft. This season is all about acquiring that pick and many others (which they have already done), and then drafting Tua Tagovailoa and contending within the next four years.

Jacksonville -3.5 over CINCINNATI
Don’t think for a second the Bengals aren’t starting to think about Tagovailoa the way the Dolphins have been since the offseason. The Bengals are horrible, but even at 0-6, they have been in most of their games, losing four of them by six points or less. Eventually, the Bengals will win a game and take themselves out of the Tagovailoa sweepstakes, but it won’t be this week.

Minnesota -2 over DETROIT
It’s nearly impossible to trust the Vikings and know which version of their offense you’re going to get from week to week. Is it going to be the offense which did whatever it wanted against the Falcons, Raiders, Giants and Eagles or the one which no-showed against the division rival Packers and Bears? The NFC is wide open this season without a truly dominant team. Maybe that team will be the Saints again, but for now, it’s no one. The Vikings have as good of a chance as any team in the conference to reach the Super Bowl if they can put it all together and survive their own division. They will need to start winning games in their division though. (I’m well aware Kirk Cousins is going to ruin this pick.)

GREEN BAY -4.5 over Oakland
I have no idea how the Raiders are 3-2 and how they have managed to win games against the Colts and Bears. Everything about this team from their coaching staff to their actual roster says they should be one of the league’s worst, but here they are with a winning record through five games. Despite their record, I don’t think the Raiders are for real or even good, and that will start to show this week.

Houston +1 over INDIANAPOLIS
Both teams have had bad losses and impressive wins, seem to be evenly matched and are division opponents. Everything about this game says it should be a three-point line in favor of the home team, and it seems odd it’s only 1. Because of the oddness, I’m going to be safe and take the one point.

NEW YORK GIANTS -3 over Arizona
For as bad as the Giants have been, they are only game back in the NFC East. No, I don’t think the Giants have a chance to win the division with their defense, I’m just pointing out how bad the Eagles and Cowboys are. All I care about with the Giants is Daniel Jones gaining valuable experience, the defense showing signs of progress and a nice sendoff for Eli Manning in the season finale at home against the Eagles. Is that too much to ask? As for the pick, always go against the Cardinals outside on the East Coast.

San Francisco -10 over WASHINGTON
The Redskins won their first game last week and that will be the only win they get this season. The easiest opponent the Redskins have left is the Giants, who already beat them by 21 in Week 4. There’s a good chance the Redskins don’t finish another game this season within double-digit points of their opponent.

TENNESSEE -2 over Los Angeles Chargers
It’s the battle for the biggest disappointment of 2019. The Chargers went to the playoffs last year, won their first game and then were thoroughly embarrassed in their second only to return this season with a 2-4 start and back-to-back home losses to the Broncos and the third-string quarterback Steelers. The Titans finished 8-8 last year and looked poised to take a big step this season, only to also begin 2-4, while scoring seven points or less in half of their games. It’s hard to not considering the Titans a bigger disappointment when their franchise quarterback was benched in Week 6 for Ryan Tannehill, but it’s the Chargers who are the biggest disappointment as their championship aspirations are on the verge of crumbling, and might be gone after this week.

New Orleans +3.5 over CHICAGO
The Saints are undefeated with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback as he keeps adding money to the contract he will inevitably sign based off this run. Good for him after the Vikings screwed him over post-injury and he had to momentarily be a Jet and then back up Drew Brees. It’s scary to go against the Bears defense at home, coming off a bye, but this isn’t about going against the Bears defense, it’s about going against their offense.

Baltimore +3.5 over SEATTLE
The Seahawks have won five games. Four of their wins have been by 1, 2, 1 and 4 points. Their only loss of this season was at home to the Teddy Bridgewater Saints. The Seahawks can’t be trusted to cover as favorites at home like they once could, and they can’t be trusted against good opponents either.

Philadelphia +3 over DALLAS
There was a time when the NFC East was easily the best division in football. But it’s been nearly a decade now since that was true, and somehow, for as bad as the Giants have been this season, they’re only one game back of both of these teams for the best record in the division. The Cowboys are clearly frauds with wins over the Giants, Redskins and Dolphins to open the season and now three straight losses to the Saints, Packers and Jets. The Eagles have been the model for inconsistency with one only one good win on the season and two sloppy losses. I’m taking the points because it’s the safe thing to do.

NEW YORK JETS +10 over New England
I can see it now: the Jets are going to make their season interesting. Even if they don’t win this week, though they very well could if the Patriots play the way they did against the Giants, the Jets have Jacksonville then Miami, the Giants, Washington, Oakland, Cincinnati and Miami again. Let’s say they lose to the Patriots because they always do, they will be 1-5. But then they have seven more-than-winnable games in a row. There’s a chance the Jets could reel their fans back in and be around 7-6 with three games remaining and in contention for a postseason berth. But then, they will most likely need to win in Week 17 in Buffalo, and they won’t.

Last week: 7-7-0
Season: 42-49-1

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NFL Week 6 Picks

The Giants’ only goal this season is back to what it was prior to the season, and what it’s really been all along. That goal is to get Daniel Jones experience and improve the defense.

After losing to the Cowboys and Bills to open the season, if the Giants really wanted to have any chance at the postseason this season (even though they never really had a chance), they would have had to beat the Vikings on Sunday or pull off the most improbably of upsets (given their defense) over the Patriots on Thursday. The Giants scored 10 points and let Kirk Cousins of all quarterbacks do whatever he wanted against them in an 18-point loss Sunday, and now they will play the Patriots on the road in a short week without Saquon Barkley, Sterling Shepard or Evan Engram. Eli Manning should feel lucky to be on the sideline for this one.

The Giants’ only goal this season is back to what it was prior to the season, and what it’s really been all along outside of the one calendar-week window where back-to-back wins gave the team and its fans the slightest idea of a miracle season ending with a postseason berth. That goal is to get Daniel Jones experience and improve the defense. The first part of the goal is going well, the second part, not so well. The defense is going to have its work cut out for them on Thursday Night Football against Tom Brady and the undefeated Patriots, and if the Giants have so far let Dak Prescott, Josh Allen, Jamies Winston and Cousins put up video game-like numbers against them in the first half alone, what is Brady going to do against them?

I’m happy the Giants are playing on an off day for the Yankees, but I’m not happy it’s this game that’s being played.

(Home team in caps)

NEW ENGLAND -17 over New York Giants
The Giants will be without their all-world running back, No. 1 wide receiver and possibly the league’s top tight end. I have no idea how they’re going to score points to cover against this Patriots team and Patriots defense, which looks like the Patriots’ defense from the early years of the Brady era. Unlike some of the Patriots’ other opponents, the Giants don’t have a defense capable of scoring a touchdown for a backdoor cover, and after putting up only 10 points at home against a lesser opponent in the Vikings, scoring 10 on Thursday would be a lot.

Carolina -2.5 over TAMPA BAY (in London)
Finally, some Sunday morning football, so if I wake up hungover at 7 a.m. on Sunday I will have something to watch when I can’t fall back asleep. The Panthers are 4-0 when Kyle Allen starts since his first start last season, and since that start, the Panthers are 0-9 when Cam Newton starts. There shouldn’t even be a quarterback controversy for the Panthers. Allen is better.

BALTIMORE -11 over Cincinnati
The Bengals are 0-5 and tied with the Redskins for the worst record in the league. I don’t expect either to finish as the worst team in the league (that honor goes to the Dolphins), but now that the Bengals are 0-5, they have to be thinking about what their future could look like with Tua Tagovailoa as their quarterback. That has to scares the Dolphins and their fans.

Seattle -1.5 over CLEVELAND
The Browns suck. People were actually picking them to win the AFC and go to the Super Bowl because … I have no idea? The idea the Browns were going to be one of the top teams in the league because Baker Mayfield is now in his second year or because they traded for Odell Beckham was preposterous. The Browns have now suffered two losses of at least 28 points in the first five weeks of the season, and now have Seattle at home before their bye, and then road games at New England and Denver. The Browns might be improved from the Browns we have come to know, but they’re an eight-win team at best.

New Orleans +1 over JACKSONVILLE
The Saints are 3-0 when Teddy Bridgewater starts. I wonder how Vikings fans feel about that. Actually, I know since my wife is a Vikings fan and she isn’t happy about it. Jets fans can’t be happy either after they traded away Bridgewater for nothing to the Saints prior to last season and then could have used him to stay afloat over the last four weeks this season. Instead, he’s helping the Saints stay afloat until Drew Brees can come back, and he’s building himself up for a nice payday and a starting job somewhere in 2020.

KANSAS CITY -4.5 over Houston
I watched the Colts lose to the Raiders two weeks ago and everything I thought I knew about this Colts team was erased. But then the Colts went out on Sunday Night Football this past week and won on the road in Kansas City, where no visiting team wins, further proving each week of the NFL season needs to be evaluated as a one-week season. Nothing about this sport and the result make sense and it’s absolutely ridiculous that I or anyone wager money on it. It’s just so fun not to.

Washington -3.5 over MIAMI
If FOX isn’t calling this the Tua Bowl on Sunday then what’s the point of anything? The two worst teams in the league going head-to-head and one will come out with a win they certainly don’t want. I think it’s going to be the Redskins because I think the Dolphins have made it more than clear they will lose at all costs to get the No. 1 pick. With the Redskins and Bengals at 0-5, the Dolphins need to make sure they lose this game or their entire rebuilding plan will be ruined. The biggest Redskins fan in the world on Sunday will be Tagovailoa.

MINNESOTA -3 over Philadelphia
This game was the hardest one for me to pick because as someone who bought the Sunday Ticket solely for Vikings games, I have seen every game in its entirety of the Cousins era. The Vikings are good because of their defense, but they’re not great because of Cousins. But the Eagles are just as average as the Vikings, and because of that, I have to take the home team.

ARIZONA +2.5 over Atlanta
Once an owner starts commenting on the status of the team’s head coach to the media, that head coach is done. That’s exactly what’s happening in Atlanta. It’s a move that’s way overdue, and a move that should have been made the second the Super Bowl collapse happened, but it’s a move that’s coming before the start of next season.

LOS ANGELES RAMS -3.5 over San Francisco
If you had to bet on Greg Zuerlein to successfully kick a 44-yard field-goal attempt, you would bet for him every time. That’s the situation I was in in the Rams-Seahawks game last week when the Rams had a chance to win the game if Zuerlein convered the 44-yard attempt as time expired. He didn’t and the Rams lost and my pick lost and my bank account lost. That loss was the Rams’ second straight, something I didn’t think was possible for this team in this window. A third straight loss? No way.

Tennessee +2.5 over DENVER
The Broncos surprised everyone with a win on the road against the Chargers. The Chargers losing one of their easier games at home to a Broncos team, which looked dysfunctional on offense for the first four games of the season shouldn’t have been a surprise to anyone since that’s the exact kind of game the Chargers always lose. Meanwhile, the Titans, who I wrongly predicted to build off their 8-8 finish last season, lost a 14-7 game in Buffalo after their eventually-released kicker missed all for field-goal attempts. For two teams with good defenses who have trouble moving the ball on offense, the over/under on this barnburner should be 20.

NEW YORK JETS +7.5 over Dallas
The good news for the Jets is their quarterback is back. The bad news for the Jets is it will take a miracle for them to save their season. If 10 wins gets the Jets a playoff berth, they would have to go 10-2 the rest of the way. Their next three games are against Dallas, New England and Jacksonville, which means they could be eliminated from going 10-2 in the next three weeks. The Jets finally had a roster capable of reaching the playoffs and a schedule that would allow them an easy path to do so, and it just didn’t work out, the way things never work out for the Jets.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS -6.5 over Pittsburgh
The Chargers are 2-3 this season. Their two wins were a home overtime win over Indianapolis in Week 1 and a win at Miami in Week 4. Their three losses have been to Detroit, Houston and Denver, and in those three games, they have scored 10, 20 and 13 points, for an average of 14.3 points per game. What happened to the Chargers team that looked like a Super Bowl contender nine months ago and was able to put up points with ease? The Chargers’ schedule is about to get extremely difficult with two timezone-changing trips and Green Bay and Kansas City before their Week 12 bye. If the Chargers can’t win this game, and win big, against a Pittsburgh team on their third-string quarterback, then call it a season and we’ll see the Chargers again next September.

GREEN BAY -4 over Detroit
Unless you’re a Lions fan, you would have to be crazy to ever bet on Lions game, for or against them. If you bet for them, they will screw you. If you bet against them, they will screw you. There’s no knowing what type of effort you will get from Lions and what kind of comeback they will produce or what kind of late-game meltdown they will endure. The safest thing to do is to pick against them.

Last week: 7-7-1
Season: 35-42-1

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