MLB – Page 3 – Keefe To The City

Apr 2, 2015

2015 MLB Over/Under Wins

The baseball season starts on Sunday night, so it’s time to take a look at the win totals for the 2015 and pick five overs and five unders.

The 2015 season begins on Sunday night in Chicago and the real season begins on Monday afternoon in the Bronx. With only a few days separating us from the start of a new season, it’s time to look at the win totals and pick five overs and five unders.

OVERS

San Francisco Giants – 82
I realize this is an odd-numbered year and that means that the Giants are likely to miss the playoffs and then bounce back and win the World Series next year the way they did in 2010, 2012 and 2014.

The Giants did lose Pablo Sandoval to the Red Sox where he is in line to become Carl Crawford 2.0 with handling the pressure and dealing with the media and listening to insane baseball fans that go along with playing in Boston. But they traded for Casey McGehee to play third and have Matt Cain back after he missed the second half of last season. Even with the NL West getting some depth with the Padres changing their entire team to compete with the Dodgers, the Giants will still be in the postseason mix for a wild-card spot and they will be better than two games over .500.

New York Yankees – 82.5
The last time the Yankees won less than 83 games was in 1992 when they won 76 games. That season was also the last time they finished under .500.

The 2013 Yankees won 85 games with these players playing the most games at each position:

C – Chris Stewart
1B – Lyle Overbay
2B – Robinson Cano
3B – Jayson Nix
SS – Eduardo Nunez
LF – Vernon Wells
CF – Brett Gardner
RF – Ichiro Suzuki
DH – Travis Hafner

The 2014 Yankees won 84 games with Jacoby Ellsbury leading the team with a .271 average, 40-year-old Ichiro playing 143 games, Brian Roberts, Kelly Johnson and Stephen Drew combining for 730 plate appearances, Masahiro Tanaka making only 20 starts, Michael Pineda making only 13 and Vidal Nuno making the fifth most starts on the team (14) despite being traded on July 6.

For as bad as the 2013 and 2014 seasons went for the Yankees with injuries and poor production, they still covered this number, and they will again in 2015.

New York Mets – 83
This is a dangerous pick. The Mets haven’t won at least 83 games since 2008 (89-73) and the hype train surrounding this team because of their starting pitching is so out of control it rivals that of the Cubs, who have had five straight fifth-place finishes.

The Mets’ rotation isn’t what it was projected to be without Zack Wheeler, but it’s still one of the strongest in the league and with Matt Harvey back, with a full season of Jacob deGrom and an improved offense, the Mets are clearly more than four wins better than they were last year at 79-83.

I don’t think the Mets are necessarily a playoff team the way everyone else has been so quick to believe, but they will be in contention for at least the second wild-card spot because as the Yankees have proved the last two years, you just have to not completely suck to be in the mix until even late September.

San Diego Padres – 84
The Padres weren’t effing around this offseason. They changed their entire outfield by trading for Matt Kemp, Justin Upton and Wil Myers and signed James Shields to a four-year deal to give them the deepest rotation in the NL West. If you look at the 77-win 2014 Padres and change their most used outfielders of Seth Smith, Cameron Maybin and Will Venable to Kemp, Upton and Myers and add Shields into their rotation in place of Eric Stults, who lost 17 games, then this team not only covers the 84, but they are a playoff team.

It’s weird to think about how bad the AL East has become and how much better the NL Wast has become.

Los Angeles Dodgers – 92.5
This number can be changed to 72.5 for the Los Angeles Dodgers without Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw won 21 games last year in only 27 starts and after what he has done the last four years, you can just go ahead and put him down for (at least) 20 wins this season, which means the rest of the team needs to find a way to 73 games and that shouldn’t be hard.

The Dodgers won 94 games in 2014 without Kershaw for all of April, with just two starters pitching full seasons (Zack Greinke and Dan Haren), A.J. Ellis hitting .191 in 347 plate appearances and having a group of untrustworthy middle relievers. They did stupidly trade Matt Kemp within the division to San Diego, sent Dee Gordon to Miami and lost Hanley Ramirez to free agency, but they added Jimmy Rollins and Howie Kendrick and bolstered their rotation by signing Brandon McCarthy and Brett Anderson. The Dodgers are a better team than they were last year.

UNDERS

Minnesota Twins – 73
The Twins are bad. Really, really, really bad. The Phillies have the lowest number (66.5) for this season, but I’m not sure the Phillies are the worst team in the league, it might be the Twins. It used to be a guaranteed win to take the Twins’ over, but those days are long gone.

The Twins won 70 games last season and that was with Phil Hughes somehow becoming the pitcher Yankees fans had been told since 2004 that he would become. Do I think Hughes is going to win 16 games again and walk only 16 in 209 2/3 innings and actually receive Cy Young votes? No. The Twins’ rotation did get some help with the addition of Ervin Santana, but aside from Joe Mauer, their lineup is a disaster and signing Torii Hunter, who will be 39 in July, isn’t going to turn back the clock to 2002, 2003 or 2004 for the Twins.

Tampa Bay Rays – 79
The Rays are going to be so bad that I feel bad that Evan Longoria’s production is going to be wasted in Tampa Bay. Well, as long as that production doesn’t come against the Yankees.

The 2014 Rays only won 77 games and they are a worse team this season. They aren’t going to get 23 starts and 11 wins from David Price. They no longer have Ben Zobrist to play every position. Wil Myers is in San Diego, Matthew Joyce is in Anaheim and Yunel Escobar is in Washington. Joe Maddon is in Chicago and Andrew Friedman is in Los Angeles. Jake McGee is coming off arthroscopic elbow surgery in December and new No. 1 starter Alex Cobb has forearm tendinitis. The Rays might want to add “Devil” back to their name because it might feel like 1998-2007 in Tampa Bay this season.

Detroit Tigers – 84
The Tigers won 90 games in 2014 and 18 of those were Max Scherzer’s, 15 were Rick Porcello’s and 15 were Justin Verlander’s. Scherzer is now in Washington, Porcello is in Boston and Verlander is beginning the season on the disabled list with triceps soreness. Sure, the Tigers will have a full season of David Price and he can fill the void of Scherzer leaving and if Anibal Sanchez stays healthy, he can take over for Porcello. But without Verlander healthy, and when healthy, pitching like 2009-2013 instead of 2014, the Tigers are in trouble.

Cleveland Indians – 85
The Indians earned a wild-card berth in 2013 and last season nearly earned another one because they spent September the last two years beating up on the White Sox and Twins to rack up late-season wins. Unfortunately for the Indians, only the Twins are a doormat for the AL Central now.

There seems to be a lot of over-the-top admiration for the 2015 Indians. The Indians won 85 games last year with 18 of those coming from Corey Kluber’s Cy Young season and no other Indians starter had double-digit wins.

The Indians’ rotation has been set as Kluber, Carlos Carrasco (54 career starts), Trevor Bauer (34 career starts), Zach McAllister (65 career starts) and T.J. House (18 career starts). There isn’t a whole lot of experience in that rotation and unless Kluber is turning into Cliff Lee in his late-20s, the Indians’ pitching can’t compete with the White Sox, Royals and Tigers. And the the Indians’ offense isn’t good enough to carry their pitching.

Boston Red Sox – 86
Everyone is drooling over the Red Sox’ lineup and how 2015 will be a “resurgence” for the team. The 2012 Red Sox won 69 games. The 2013 Red Sox hit the biggest parlay in the history of major sports an won 97 games. The 2014 Red Sox won 71 games. That’s two last-place finishes sandwiched around the most miraculous of miracles.

The 2015 Red Sox might have the best lineup in baseball, but their rotation is Clay Buchholz, Rick Porcello, Wade Miley, Justin Masterson and Joe Kelly. When Buchholz, who has only pitched three full seasons since entering the league in 2007 and who is coming off a season with a 5.34 ERA, is your Opening Day starter and No. 1, not even having the best lineup in baseball can make up for that.

MLB • Podcasts

Dec 11, 2014

Podcast: Danny Picard

The only way I wanted Jon Lester to return to the AL East as as a member of the Yankees, but since that apparently was never really an option, I’m ecstatic that Lester is out

The only way I wanted Jon Lester to return to the AL East as as a member of the Yankees, but since that apparently was never really an option, I’m ecstatic that Lester is out of the division and out of the American League and most importantly, not in Boston. If the Red Sox were able to re-sign Lester after their embarrassing offer to him last year, I would have been devastated knowing that the Red Sox could treat a homegrown pitcher and a face of their franchise like dirt and then get him back anyway. Fortunately, Lester didn’t go back to the Red Sox and now he’s a Cub.

Danny Picard, host of The Danny Picard Show on WEEI and of Comcast SportsNet New England, joined me to talk about Jon Lester choosing to sign with the Cubs over the Red Sox, what led to Lester leaving Boston in the first place and what the team’s plans are now that they lack a stable rotation.

MLB • Podcasts

Dec 2, 2014

Podcast: Mike Hurley

The football season is over in New York and for the Giants and the way things are going for the Yankees this offseason, the baseball season might for me might go the same way this

The football season is over in New York and for the Giants and the way things are going for the Yankees this offseason, the baseball season might for me might go the same way this football season did. Up in Boston, the Patriots are chugging along and look like they are headed back to at least the AFC Championship Game, while the Red Sox are adding every reliable bat on the open market. Things aren’t going well right now.

Mike Hurley of CBS Boston joined me talk about whether it’s better to have been a Giants fan or a Patriots fan over the last 10 years, which team can continue the Patriots’ championship drought and the Red Sox using the 2004-08 Yankees’ strategy when it comes to building their team.

Blogs • MLB

Oct 2, 2014

My World Series Dilemma

October without the Yankees is miserable. I used to be able to count on the Yankees to help me cope with the end of summer and leaves falling and the temperature dropping, but that is

October without the Yankees is miserable. I used to be able to count on the Yankees to help me cope with the end of summer and leaves falling and the temperature dropping, but that is no longer a sure-thing. It helps that the Giants saved their season with back-to-back wins in Weeks 3 and 4 and that hockey starts next week, but watching the wild card games on Tuesday and Wednesday night and seeing this massive ad for the MLB postseason on 7th Ave. this week only made me depressed and then mad and then sad and then angry. The division series haven’t even started yet and I’m already at the breaking point of hating baseball and knowing that I have over six months until Opening Day.

Back in 2010 with the Giants missing out on the NFL playoffs, I wrote My Super Bowl Dilemma and ranked the playoff teams from who I wanted to win the Super Bowl the most to the last. I did it again this past year. Since this is only the third time since 1993 the Yankees have missed the playoffs, I haven’t had many opportunities to do a baseball version of the dilemma. And the last two times they missed the postseason (2008 and 2013), the Red Sox were in it, so it was pretty obvious who I didn’t want to win the World Series those years.

This year it’s different. Both the Yankees and Red Sox are home and the playoff field seems to be wide open, but when it comes to life as a Yankees fan, there is an order of who to pull for this October. So I ranked the eight playoff teams in order from which team I would most like to see win the World Series to which team I don’t want to see win it all.

1. Dodgers
The Yankees reached the World Series in 1981 and lost to the Dodgers in six games. The next season, Don Mattingly was a rookie on the Yankees.

Mattingly played for the Yankees from 1982-1995 and the only time he reached the postseason was in 1995 in the final year of his career. (At least he gave us this memory.) The 1995 Yankees held a 2-0 series lead over the Mariners in what was then a 2-3 ALDS format before losing the final three games of the series on the road, including Game 5 on a walk-off, which saved the Mariners as a franchise and got them a new stadium.

The next season with Mattingly retired, the Yankees reached the World Series and won it.

Mattingly became the Yankees hitting coach in 2004 and with a 3-0 series lead in the ALCS, it looked like he would get to be a part of the World Series for the first time. Then some things happened and some more things happened and he didn’t get to the World Series in 2004. He remained hitting coach for the Yankees in 2005 and 2006 and the Yankees lost in the ALDS both times. In 2007, he came the bench coach for Joe Torre and again the Yankees were eliminated in the ALDS. After the 2007 season with Torre declining the Yankees’ incentive-loaded contract, the Yankees passed over Mattingly to be their next manager and instead hired Joe Girardi.

Mattingly followed Torre to Los Angeles and became the hitting coach for the Dodgers in 2008 and has remained with the team since, while the Yankees went on to win the 2009 World Series. He became manager of the Dodgers in 2011 and missed the playoffs in 2011 and 2012 before reaching the NLCS in 2013 and losing to the Cardinals in six games, falling two wins short of the World Series for the third time since 2009.

Don Mattingly was my first favorite player. Enough is enough. He deserves a World Series. And not just a World Series appearance. He deserves a World Series win.

(And my girlfriend is a Dodgers fan, so there’s that too.)

2. Royals
There’s nothing to dislike about the Royals. They reached the playoffs for the first time in 29 years, overcame a four-run deficit and a one-run deficit in the 12th inning to win the wild card. And they prevented Jon Lester from having to start anymore games this year, which will help protect his left arm when the Yankees offer him $200 million this winter.

3. Orioles
Buck Showalter wanted to beat the Yankees in the 2012 ALDS more than you ever have wanted anything in your life. And since he couldn’t do that, he wanted to badly eliminate the Yankees from postseason contention last week at Yankee Stadium, which he successfully accomplished.

I can’t help but think that not a day goes by that Showalter doesn’t think that he should be living the luxurious life that Joe Torre has lived since taking over the Yankees for Showalter in1996. I’m not sure if Showalter and Torre are friends or if they like each other, but there’s no way Buck can like Joe after watching him win four World Series and go to six and get inducted into the Hall of Fame as a manager and get his number retired in Monument Park and be an ambassador for baseball all while Buck has kept grinding it out every day as a manager and doing TV work between managerial jobs.

I don’t like the Orioles and I wouldn’t want them to become the new kings and future of the AL East, but Buck deserves to win the World Series.

4. Nationals
Two years ago, the Nationals shut down Stephen Strasburg for the season after starting 28 games and throwing 159 1/3 innings, keeping the ace from pitching in the playoffs in the team’s first postseason appearance. The Nationals are fortunate to be back in the playoffs this year, just two years removed from their last postseason appearance, because you never know when you will get back there.

I’m sure after winning back-to-back World Series in 1992 and 1993 the Blue Jays thought they had the next dynasty in Toronto, but they haven’t been back to the playoffs since. And I’m sure after 1985 the Royals thought they would just keep on winning, but on Tuesday night they played their first playoff game in 29 years since that World Series. And I’m sure Red Sox fans in 1918 were laughing about their dominance, having won four World Series in seven years, never thinking it would take them 86 years to win their next one.

The Nationals played a dangerous game with what they did with Strasburg in 2012. If Strasburg had helped the Nationals win the 2012 World Series (and they could have) and then was unable to ever pitch again, he did his job. He would have brought Washington a championship, which is all any player is there to do. The Nationals shouldn’t be worried about the length of careers or making sure their ace is healthy for next season and the season after that. The goal is to win a championship and Strasburg could have helped them to do that. Maybe he will help them win one this year, but the Nationals front office doesn’t deserve it.

5. Giants
I hate the Giants because like I said, my girlfriend is a Dodgers fan and I wouldn’t allow her to root for the Red Sox in our house, so I’m not about to be a hypocrite. If the Giants win, they will keep their pattern of winning the World Series and then missing the playoffs the following season, which started in 2010. But if they win, I will be living in an unhappy household.

6. Angels
For all the money the Angels spend (I know I’m not one to talk), the last playoff game they played in was Game 6 of the 2009 ALCS. They missed the playoffs the last four years, but that didn’t keep Mike Scioscia from losing his job and it hasn’t kept Mike Francesa from considering him to be the best manager in baseball.

It was the Angels who eliminated the Yankees in four games in the 2002 ALDS after the Yankees won Game 1 and it was the Angels who eliminated the Yankees in five games in the 2005 ALDS after the Yankees fought back to send the series to a Game 5 in Anaheim. Mike Mussina gave up the early 2-0 lead in Game 5 like only Mike Mussina could and even with Bartolo Colon leaving the game in the second inning for a young Ervin Santana, the Yankees couldn’t win. Between the Bubba Crosby/Gary Sheffield debacle in the outfield and A-Rod’s rally-killing double play in the ninth inning against K-Rod, that game will always bother me.

The 2009 ALCS made up for those two ALDS losses with the Yankees getting past the Angels for the first time (something they still haven’t over come against the Tigers). But that doesn’t change the fact that the Angels were responsible for two early postseason exits for the Yankees and because of that, I don’t want them to win.

7. Tigers
I will never forget leaving Yankee Stadium after Game 1 of the 2006 ALDS with River Ave. filling up with chants of “SWEEP! SWEEP! SWEEP!” after the Yankees’ 8-4 win over the Tigers and Derek Jeter’s 5-for-5 night to open the playoffs. Who wasn’t thinking sweep with the Yankees’ lineup being called “Murderer’s Row and Cano” and living up to that billing with eight runs on 14 hits in Game 1? But then the Game 2 rainout pushed the game from a Wednesday night in the Bronx to a Thursday afternoon, killing all of the momentum of the series and putting the Tigers in a more comfortable spot in the day at Yankee Stadium. Mike Mussina couldn’t hold a 3-1 lead and with Joel Zumaya throwing flames with the late-afternoon shadows covering home plate, the Yankees lost and the series changed.

Randy Johnson couldn’t put the team on his back in Game 3 the following night and the day after that, the Yankees were eliminated with Jaret Wright on the mound to save the season and A-Rod hitting eighth in the lineup. Jeter (8-for-16), Jorge Posada (7-for-14) and Bobby Abreu (5-for-15) were the only ones to hit in the series for the Yankees, but it didn’t matter with the pitching staff giving up 22 runs in four games.

The 2011 ALDS was another disaster. The Friday night rainout after the first inning suspended the game to Saturday and the Yankees ended up winning. But then Freddy Garcia started Game 2 and CC Sabathia wasn’t himself in Game 3 and the Yankees were in a 2-1 hole, forcing the “I Believe in A.J.” campaign on Twitter for Game 4 with A.J. Burnett getting a start after a miserable regular season. Burnett nearly blew the game in the first with the bases loaded, but Curtis Granderson made a memorable catch to keep it scoreless and the Yankees went on to win Game 4 and send it home for Game 5.

I didn’t think the Yankees would lose Game 5 since Ivan Nova had been outstanding in Game 1. But Doug Fister became Cliff Lee 2.0 and shut the Yankees down as A-Rod, Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher turned in their usual postseason performances. The Yankees put 13 runners on and scored two runs in the Game 5 loss.

There wasn’t much to the 2012 ALCS. When the Yankees overcame a 4-0 deficit in the ninth to tie the game on another Raul Ibanez home run, it felt like their year. You don’t lose games like that at home, but the Yankees did and lost Jeter for the rest of the season (and then nearly all of 2013). I knew the series was over when I left the Stadium that night in as bad of a mood as I have ever been in following a Yankees’ loss, but I didn’t realize that would be the last time I would ever see Jeter play in the postseason because it was the last time he ever played in the postseason..

Those three postseason losses, coupled with the idea of seeing Phil Coke, Justin Verlander and Brad Ausmus celebrate a World Series is more than enough to not want to see the Tigers win.

8. Cardinals
There is nothing to like about the Cardinals. Nothing. After winning 97 games last year, they survived a five-game scare from the Pirates, knocked off the Dodgers in six games (beating Clayton Kershaw twice) and then forgot how to hit and score runs in the World Series. The Cardinals scored 14 runs in six games against the Red Sox, scoring one run in Games 1, 5 and 6 on their way to giving the Red Sox their third World Series in 10 seasons. But that’s not the worst part.

The worst part is what happened 10 years ago in October of 2004 when I was a freshman in college in Boston. Even after the Yankees had blown the ALCS and I had blown all the money I had saved in the summer for the first semester on tickets to Game 5 of the ALCS for a chance to watch the Yankees win the pennant in person at Fenway Park, the Red Sox still had to get by the 105-win Cardinals to win the World Series.

That Cardinals team had Albert Pujols (46 HR, 123 RBIs, .331/.415/.657), Jim Edmonds (42 HR, 111 RBIs, .301/.418/.643) and Scott Rolen (34 HR, 124 RBIs, .314/.409/.598). Current manager Mike Matheny was their catcher and they had four 15-game winners in their rotation. But none of those 15-game winners started Game 1 of the World Series. Instead 37-year-old Woody Williams got the ball and allowed seven earned runs in 2 1/3 innings. (A 23-year-old Dan Haren relieved him and pitched 3 2/3 scoreless innings and had he started, the Cardinals probably win that game). The Cardinals lost 11-9 in Game 1 despite overcoming a five-run deficit and despite the Red Sox making four errors and that was it.

The Cardinals would score just three runs combined over the next three games and after never leading in the four-game series, they were done and the 86-year curse was over and I can still hear the noise from the final out of the 2004 World Series echoing through Boston as if it happened just yesterday. Eff you, St. Louis.

MLB • Podcasts

Jul 30, 2014

Podcast: Danny Picard

Danny Picard of “I’m Just Sayin’” and WEEI joins me to talk about the Red Sox’ decision to trade and not extend Jon Lester and the chances he will be pitching for the Yankees in 2015.

Any minute now Jon Lester could no longer be a member of the Red Sox. After winning 110 games and two World Series since debuting in 2006, the Red Sox’ ace was scratched from his start on Wednesday night with a trade looming. Nine months ago when Lester was winning four postseason games, seeing the left-hander pitch for another team seemed impossible, but now it seems inevitable.

Danny Picard, host of I’m Just Sayin‘ and host of The Danny Picard Show on WEEI, joined me to talk about the Red Sox’ decision to trade and not extend Lester, the chances he will be pitching for the Yankees in 2015 and how Red Sox fans are going to lose another franchise staple because of ownership.