Here are the bets for Saturday, April 1. Yankees -130 over OriolesWhen was the last time the Yankees were only -130 against the Orioles? It has to be nearly 10 years ago at this point.
Here are the bets for Saturday, April 1.
Yankees -130 over Orioles When was the last time the Yankees were only -130 against the Orioles? It has to be nearly 10 years ago at this point. These aren’t the Orioles I used to be able to count on for 14-plus Yankees wins a season, but they still don’t have any reliable pitching, and that includes Dean Kremer, who is starting on Friday, and who the Yankees have Central Park softball numbers against. I know I have taken the Yankees money line in every game this season, and I plan on continuing to do so with prices like this.
There are a bunch of enticing plus-money money lines today that I think are worth taking, whether it’s at a half-unit or more.
Rangers +105 over Cubs The Rangers have a solid rotation now, something they haven’t had since their back-to-back World Series appearances over a decade ago. Nathan Eovaldi is one of those new additions, and while I despite “Nasty Nate,” I don’t despise him enough to not take him as an underdog on the road against a rather odd Cubs lineup, even if Marcus Stroman is starting for the other side.
Mariners +105 over Guardians This is pretty much the same scenario as the Rangers-Cubs game in that Logan Gilbert as an underdog against Aaron Civale and the Guardians is essentially a coin flip, so why not take the side that’s offering more of a profit? These two teams just faced each other last week and Civale had only a handful of swings and misses in seven shutout innings. I don’t think his inability to miss bats will go well seeing the same lineup just a few days later.
Yankees -155 over Phillies I don’t like anything about this game for the Yankees. I don’t like that Domingo German is starting and I don’t like the “C” lineup that Aaron Boone has put together and I don’t like that the Phillies haven’t won a game yet this season. But again, the Yankees with a home money line not lower than 200 is a must-take.
Pirates-Red Sox Under 9 (-120) The rate of scoring in Red Sox games can’t continue. It just can’t. Both the Pirates and Red Sox suck, and they suck because neither team has pitching, and not having pitching leads to overs, but I’m playing the under here because it’s due. It’s more than due.
Just one bet yesterday, but one win (Yankees -135 over Giants). I normally go to town on the board on Sundays, but there wasn’t much I liked, so I did the smart thing and backed Jhony Brito against Ross Stripling.
Here are the bets for Monday, April 3.
Mets-Brewers Under 9 (-120) The Brewers have surprisingly good numbers against Carlos Carrasco, and the Mets have poor numbers against Freddy Peralta. I wouldn’t feel comfortable backing the Brewers on the money line because I don’t trust the Brewers, but I do like the under here and am surprised it’s 9.
The Mets’ offense is pretty blah to begin with and given their lack of success against Peralta (6-for-43 with 18 strikeouts) and given the lack of talent in the Brewers’ lineup, this projects to be a low-scoring game.
Yankees -170 over Phillies It was odd when the Yankees didn’t touch the -200s as the home team in any game against the Giants over the weekend, and they don’t touch it again on Monday against the Phillies.
The Yankees have very strong numbers against Taijuan Walker, especially Aaron Judge (4-for-11 with four home runs) and Giancarlo Stanton (4-for-10 with one home run). Even Aaron Hicks (4-for-11 with one home run) hits Walker well (and Hicks will make his 2023 starting debut on Monday night after complaining about his playing time on Sunday).
The Phillies haven’t really seen Nestor Cortes. Just 17 plate appearances for active Phillies and just one single and one walk in those 17 plate appearances. Not a strong sample size, but not great for the Phillies either.
The Phillies blew a five-run lead on Opening Day, allowed 16 runs in their next game and then scored one run on Sunday Night Baseball last night. They are 0-3, having been outscored 29-11 against the Rangers.
I don’t expect the Yankees to sweep the Phillies, but I do expect them to win on Monday with the edge on the mound in Cortes’ season debut.
Rays -180 over Nationals Astros -230 over Tigers +123 As I wrote over the weekend, I will bet against the Nationals nearly every day of this season, and what better way to do than to build a parlay against them with the Astros over the Tigers, another very, very bad team. The sample sizes for Drew Rasmussen against the Nationals, Trevor Williams against the Rays, Hunter Brown against the Tigers and Matthew Boyd against the Astros aren’t all that large, so I’m going to with the simple fact that the Rays take care of business against bad teams (look what they did to the Tigers in the first three games of the season), and Boyd will be forced to face a nearly all-right-handed Astros lineup. The only lefties he will face are Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker and neither of them care which arm any pitchers throws with.
It took some more unfortunate events and seeing-eye ground balls to lose the White Sox-Astros under for a second straight day yesterday, and between that and the Yankees’ loss to the Giants, it was still a positive day thanks to the Braves-Padres parlay.
Here are the bets for Sunday, April 2.
Yankees -135 over Giants I wrote yesterday that the Yankees being only -135 against the Giants was a bad line from the books and I stand by that. It took Michael King and Clay Holmes (the Yankees’ two best relievers for most of 2022) allowing four runs in 2 2/3 innings and a wild mess in the bottom of the ninth for the Yankees to lose. Oh, well.
That -135 is there again on Sunday with Jhony Brito making his major-league debut for the Yankees. Brito is a control specialist and won’t give the Giants many (if any) free passes, and they will have to earn any runs they score. Ross Stripling goes for the Giants and the Yankees are familiar with him from his time with the Blue Jays.
Finally, another full slate of games. The hype and anticipation of Opening Day followed by the scheduled day off for most teams is such a letdown.
Here are the bets for Saturday, April 1.
White Sox-Astros Under 8.5 (-115) The only wager I had yesterday was White Sox-Astros Under 8 (-115), and the final score was 6-3. In order to lose the under, the following needed to happen:
– Christian Javier (who has the lowest batting average against of all major-league starters since 2020) allowed three straight doubles in an inning.
– Lance Lynn walked four batters after not walking more than two in any start last season.
– With two outs and no one on in the sixth, Lynn allowed a base hit to Jose Abreu after being ahead 1-2 and then got ahead 1-2 on Kyle Tucker before allowing a two-run home run to him.
– In the bottom of the seventh, with two outs no one on, Kendall Graveman walked Martin Maldonado (who walked in 7.8 percent of his 3,320 career plate appearances), then allowed a single to Jeremy Pena and then walked Alex Bregman. Rookie manager (and moron) Pedro Grifol then brought in Jake Diekman (of all pitchers) to face Yordan Alvarez and Alvarez hit a three-run double.
– Still sitting on eight runs in the bottom of the eighth and knowing the White Sox weren’t going to score in the ninth against the Astros bullpen, Jose Ruiz walked Kyle Tucker to lead off the inning, Tucker inevitably stole second and then scored on a ground ball single just past the outstretched glove of Elvis Andrus.
It took all of those wild events for that wager to lose and to barely avoid a push. Just bad luck.
I’m going back to the under well on this series for a third straight day.
Nearly all of the Astros’ success against Lucas Giolito has been from Jose Altuve and Michael Brantley, and neither are playing. Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker are a combined 3-for-18 against Giolito.
The White Sox, as a team, have putrid numbers against Jose Urquidy: 6-for-41. It’s going to be hard for me to not take the under whenever the White Sox face a right-hander this season, especially when the under is 8.5.
Yankees -135 over Giants I was not expecting the Yankees to only be -135 favorites today. Every once in a while the books hang a truly bad line (for them) and everything about this at -135 seems like they hung a bad one.
Outside of Michael Conforto (1-for-3) and Roberto Perez (0-for-1), the Giants haven’t seen Schmidt before. That will work in his favor at least the first time through the lineup. With how deep and rested the Yankees bullpen is and the day off yesterday with another day off coming on Thursday, Aaron Boone is likely planning on five innings at most from Schmidt (unless he’s cruising, his pitch count is low and the Yankees have a large lead). That won’t be enough time for the Giants to figure him out, if they do at all.
The Yankees as a team hit Alex Cobb well (with the exception of Giancarlo Stanton, who is 1-for-12 against him), and Gleyber Torres (3-for-7 with two home runs) hits him exceptionally well. I expect Boone to run out the same lineup from Opening Day with maybe Aaron Hicks in over Oswaldo Cabrera (and Torres at second with DJ LeMahieu as the designated hitter, though that wouldn’t change the batting order).
Braves -230 over Nationals Padres -230 over Rockies -101 Sometimes you see a pitcher’s numbers against a specific team and you can’t get money down fast enough on the game. That is the case here as the Nationals have struck out in half of their at-bats (13 of 26) against the Braves’ Spencer Strider. That’s outrageous.
I recently heard that the Nationals don’t have anyone in their lineup projected to have above a wRC+ 99 in 2023, which means their entire lineup features below-average major leaguers. How that is possible and allowed and not viewed as anything other than strictly tanking I do not know, but in terms of wagering, this entire season will be parlaying the Nationals’ opponent with another strong favorite.
That other strong favorite today is the Padres. The Padres have dropped the first two games of the season to the really, really bad Rockies. For a team picked by many to unseat the Dodgers in the NL West and represent the NL in the World Series, the first two games weren’t exactly a ringing endorsement. That will change on Saturday when the Padres face Jose Urena, who has expectedly poor numbers against the Padres and will likely be on the wrong end of a Padres offensive explosion after they scored just three runs in their first 18 innings.
