Giants – Page 19 – Keefe To The City

Oct 2, 2014

NFL Week 5 Picks

Week 5 is set up to be the most unpredictable NFL picks week ever and it will either put me in an insurmountable hole or have me ready to make a midseason run in October.

The first four weeks of the picks season has been a grind. Week 1 was whatever, Week 2 was an embarrassment, Week 3 was decent and Week 4 was ehh. But now in Week 5, it’s pretty much going to be the beginning of something great or the end of the 2014 picks season despite having 12 weeks and the postseason left.

Week 5 features nine games with at least a 6-point spread, seven quarterbacks who entered the season as backups, three rookie quarterbacks, a 1-3 vs. 1-3 matchup in Tampa Bay at New Orleans and the Tom Brady Patriots being a home underdog for one of the only times ever. Between the Giants playing a must-win game, these picks, bets, parlays, teasers, fantasy football and pools, this day could either end with me being a thousandaire or me getting so drunk I try to challenge Red Zone host Andrew Siciliano to a fight through my TV.

(Home team in caps)

GREEN BAY -8.5 over Minnesota/Minnesota +8.5 over GREEN BAY
This pick depends on the status of Teddy Bridgewater. If Bridgewater starts, I will take the Vikings. If he doesn’t, I will take the Packers. I’m not about to back Christian Ponder ever let alone a week after the Packers blew the doors off the Bears in Chicago.

Chicago +2.5 over CAROLINA
These two teams seem very similar in that they are both underachievers loaded with a bunch of talent and I continue to pick them each week thinking they will finally put it together only to be let down. Now that they are playing each other, I’m forced to pick one of them and though I’m probably better off picking this one out of a hat, I will take the underachiever with more talent.

Cleveland +1 over TENNESSEE
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Browns fan or a Titans fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

PHILADELPHIA -7 over St. Louis
I didn’t care that the Eagles lost to the 49ers in Week 4 and cost me what should have been an easy picks win with a push (+5) because their loss meant the Giants are only one game back in the NFC East now. After being unable to move the ball all game on the San Francisco defense and only being in the game because of three special teams touchdowns, the Eagles had the ball first-and-goal at the 49ers’ 6 with just over two minutes to play. And here is what the Eagles did:

First-and-goal at San Francisco 6: Incomplete pass to Jeremy Maclin.

Second-and-goal at San Francisco 6: LeSean McCoy rushes for five yards to the 1.

Third-and-goal at San Francisco 1: Incomplete pass to Brent Celek.

Fourth-and-goal at San Francisco 1: Incomplete pass to Jeremy Maclin.

So with the ball on the 1 and two plays to get it in and have a lead with about two minutes left in the game, Chip Kelly decided to not give the ball to the best running back in the league. Sure, McCoy hadn’t been running well all day and finished with only 17 yards (on only 10 carries), but he did just pick up five yards on second down. Instead, the Eagles went with two passing plays, the second of which, with the game on the line, was thrown out of the end zone and was closer to being caught in the the third row then it was by an Eagles receiver.

NEW YORK GIANTS -4 over Atlanta
When I think about this game, I can’t help but think about the Giants’ 24-2 win over the Falcons in the 2011 playoffs. Maybe this game won’t play out exactly like that one since that Giants team was riding an historical wave of momentum, but this team is also riding their own currently mini-wave of momentum after saving their season with back-to-back wins and a 10-day break.

I wish this weren’t the third must-win game in a row for the Giants, but it is. With their next two games in Philadelphia and Dallas and then with Indianapolis, Seattle, San Francisco and Dallas again after their Week 8 bye, this is about as easy as it gets for the Giants until that nice Jacksonville-Tennessee-Washington-St. Louis portion of the schedule in Weeks 13-16. So yes, this is a must-win game … again.

NEW ORLEANS -10 over Tampa Bay
A home game for the Saints? Let me say it again:

The Saints’ last home loss with Sean Payton as head coach came in Week 17 in 2010 when they had nothing to play for. Including the playoffs, with Payton as head coach, the Saints have won all of their home games since that loss and here are their margins of victory in those games: 11, 25, 18, 3, 32, 18, 21, 24, 6, 17, 28, 29, 14, 25, 11, 55, 7 and 17.

(I had to add their 11-point win over the Vikings from Week 3 to that list.)

With the Saints coming off an embarrassing loss on Sunday Night Football and their season on the brink of destruction, the Superdome is the worst possible place for the Buccaneers to be headed a week after their impressive comeback in Pittsburgh and with Mike Glennon’s confidence at an all-time high.

Houston +6 over DALLAS
If the Giants didn’t exist then the Cowboys would be the worst team when playing with expectations, and after being picked to be your standard mediocre Tony Romo era team, the 2014 Cowboys now have expectations. In the last three weeks, they have beat up on the Titans, overcome a 21-0 deficit against the Rams and routed the Saints. At 3-1, hype has found Dallas in a year it wasn’t expected to thanks to DeMarco Murray’s 534 rushing yards in four games and I don’t know what makes me happier: when the Cowboys have hype or the when the Giants have none.

DETROIT -7 over Buffalo
Back in Week 2, I said “Good times can’t be sustained in Buffalo” and picked the Dolphins -1 over the Bills. The Bills won. Then in Week 3, I said, “It’s hard to buy into a good Bills start when you consider the way two other good starts finished in recent years” and picked the Bills -2.5 over San Diego. The Bills lost. After starting the season 2-0 with wins in Chicago and against Miami and selling their teams to the Sabres owner, who will keep the Bills in Buffalo, the Bills have lost two straight to San Diego and Houston and now EJ Manuel has been benched for Kyle Orton. Things got out of hand fast for the 2014 Bills and going to Detroit, where the Lions are 2-0 and beat the Giants by 21 and the Packers by 21, isn’t the best place to turn things around. (And unfortunately, we are all going to have see Jim Schwartz’s face on TV a lot because of this game.)

INDIANAPOLIS -3.5 over Baltimore
If the Ray Rice video isn’t released, Rice would have already played two games this season after serving his initial two-week suspension, which the NFL and Ravens thought was appropriate. And since that incident and fallout, nothing bad has happened to the Ravens. They cut Rice, wrote a multi-page statement rebutting everything ESPN’s Outside the Lines reported about them and then had their owner Steve Bisciotti hold a ridiculous press conference to talk about that statement and through all of this, they have won three straight games. If you try to envision the worst possible way to handle this entire mess, the Ravens have handled it even worse than that and yet, they keep winning and things just keep going their way. Well, that ends in Week 5 in Indianapolis against the highest-scoring offense in the league.

Pittsburgh -6.5 over JACKSONVILLE
I hate taking the Steelers let alone taking them to cover 6.5 on the road coming off a meltdown at home. But when you have a team only giving 6.5 points to the Jaguars, you have to take it. You just have to. The Jaguars have lost by 17, 31, 27 and 19 this season and things don’t look like they’re getting any better. This might be the worst Jaguars team ever and that’s impressive considering they went 4-12, 2-14 and 5-11 in their last three seasons.

DENVER -8 over Arizona
That last time Peyton Manning lost coming off the bye week was 2004. Ten years. (Well, it will be 10 years on Oct. 24.) Since then, Peyton and the Colts (2005-10) and the Broncos (2012-13) are 8-0, winning by an average of 17 points.

Kansas City +6.5 over SAN FRANCISCO
Either the Chiefs needed the first two games of the season to get on track and look like the early-season 2013 Chiefs, or the last two games were an anomaly and this line should be higher and I’m a sucker for taking the Chiefs based off their Monday Night Football performance. It’s most likely the latter since beating up the on the Patriots at a raucous place like Arrowhead isn’t hard to do given the current state of the Patriots and I will end up regretting this decision when the 49ers are going up and down the field against the Chiefs and the Chiefs can’t manage the game with the run against the 49ers’ defense, which held Matt Forte to 21 yards and LeSean McCoy to 17 yards.

SAN DIEGO -7 over New York Jets
I desperately wish this game were going to be played at MetLife to hear the “WE WANT VICK! WE WANT VICK! WE WANT VICK!” chants fill the stadium. But instead Rex Ryan and John Idzik will get this Sunday off from live peer pressure when Geno Smith inevitably fails to lead the offense consistently down the field and will have to deal with the questions and critics following the game and all week long back home.

Before the season started, I did a podcast with Tim Duff (we did another one after the Jets’ loss to the Packers) and he told me he was hoping the Jets would be 3-4 after their first seven games and in the thick of the postseason race. Well, the Jets are 1-3 and now need to go 2-1 against Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning and then Tom Brady on a short week in order to achieve that pipe dream of Duff’s. And I hate to sound like Joey Knish right now telling Duff that his dream of the 2014 Jets making the postseason is a pipe dream, but this isn’t Mikey McDermott bluffing Johnny Chan at the Taj or getting back his three stacks of high society from Teddy KGB to make a run at Vegas. It’s the same old Jets. The same old Jets with the same problems. And when I asked Duff about his thoughts on the quarterback controversy on Tuesday, he said, “I give Geno one more game.” The problem is the Jets can’t afford to give Geno one more game in hopes that their not-really-a-franchise-quarterback-but-still-the-franchise-quarterback Geno Smith will miraculously come around on the road against the 3-1 Chargers, whose only loss is a one-point loss on the road against the undefeated Cardinals and who put up 30 points against the best defense in the league in a win over the Super Bowl champion Seahawks.

Forget 3-4 after going through the gauntlet. The Jets could be looking at 1-6.

Cincinnati -1.5 over NEW ENGLAND
When I talked about the end of the Patriots’ dynasty last week, I thought it would be a gradual decline. I didn’t think the Patriots would get run out of Arrowhead, allow 41 points to the Chiefs and Tom Brady would find the bench on Monday Night Football. Let’s recap the Patriots’ four games this year:

Week 1 at Miami: Allowed 33 points, including 191 rushing yards, to the scoring-challenged Dolphins.

Week 2 at Minnesota: Beat up on the Vikings immediately following Adrian Peterson’s suspension, which left the Vikings without a game plan due to the absence of their best player.

Week 3 vs. Oakland: Needed a rookie quarterback playing in his third career game to throw a game-ending interception at the New England 12 with a chance to tie the game and send it to overtime.

Week 4 at Kansas City: Allowed 41 points and 207 rushing yards in a 27-point loss and Tom Brady was benched after throwing 159 yards with two interceptions.

All of my Boston friends had a good laugh at the Patriots’ win total for 2014 being “only” 11 as they poured money into sportsbooks as if it was the biggest lock since since the 1919 World Series. The Patriots are lucky to be 2-2 and are now facing the undefeated Bengals (who have allowed 33 points in three games and coming off a bye) on a short week. I’m not surprised the Patriots are a home underdog for just the sixth time since 2002. I’m surprised they aren’t getting more points.

Seattle -7.5 over WASHINGTON
Ten days after throwing four interceptions against the Giants, Kirk Cousins will have to deal with the Seahawks, who will be coming off their bye week. After this one, we can count the Redskins out in the NFC East and make it a three-team race.

Last week: 6-6-1
Season: 27-33-1

Blogs • Giants

Sep 25, 2014

NFL Week 4 Picks

Last week was a bounce-back week for the picks, but this week needs to better in order to climb out of the early-season hole.

Thursday is a gongshow. It’s Derek Jeter’s final home game ever at Yankee Stadium and the Giants are playing the Redskins in a must-win game to save their season, which means the DVR is already going to need to be ready for a Game 7-like performance. And that’s before I factor in my girlfriend trying to work Grey’s Anatomy and Scandal into the mix.

7:00: Derek Jeter’s final home game on YES
8:25: Grey’s Anatomy on ABC
8:30: Giants at Redskins on CBS
9:00: Scandal on ABC

Obviously we have a problem here. The final game at the Stadium for Number 2 and the Giants playing basically a playoff game in Week 4 should take precedence over the 11th season of Meredith Grey and whatever insane (actually insane) plot Olivia Pope is going to be a part of. However, I don’t know how to cook, or at least cook well, and my girlfriend is very good at it. As much fun as eating pizza sounds every night for the foreseeable future, I do want some actual nutrition in my diet, so I’m going to have to figure something out to make sure Meredith and Olivia make the cut.

It sucks having the Giants play on a short week in an important game just four days after their first win of the season. And it sucks even more that because of Jeter’s final game, I won’t get to enjoy the Giants (if you can really call watching Giants football “enjoyment”) for another 10 days when they play the Falcons. But it won’t suck if they win in Washington, improve to 2-2 with a 10-day break and get my picks started off with a win in Week 4.

(Home team in caps)

New York Giants +3.5 over WASHINGTON
The road team is 0-2 on Thursday Night Football this year. Last year the road team went 6-9 on Thursday Night Football. In other words, it’s really hard to play on Sunday and then have three fake days of practice and preparation and then travel and win a game. Luckily for the Giants, their trip to Washington isn’t that far and if they have to travel to somewhere that isn’t Philadelphia, Washington is a great second choice.

To non-Giants and Redskins fans, this game probably appears as a Thursday Night mess the way the Falcons-Buccaneers game was last week, but there is a lot at stake in this game. As I told my friend Ray, one team is going to enter a 10-day break at 2-2 with control of their season and other team is going to be 1-3 and will have unsuccessfully made it to October with playoff aspirations. Sure, the season will only be 25 percent over for the Giants and Redskins after Thursday night’s game, but look at the schedules for both teams and then tell me that 1-3 isn’t the same as calling them mathematically eliminated on Sept. 25.

After watching the latest edition of the Kirk Cousins experiment in Washington, I wish RGIII hadn’t dislocated his ankle and would be starting this game. Led by Cousins, the Redskins gave away a game in Philadelphia on Sunday and went punch for punch with the best offensive team in the NFC and now Cousins can either begin his campaign to unseat RGIII as the franchise quarterback in Washington or he can dig the Redskins’ hole a little deeper and make sure the Jay Gruden era continues the way the Mike Shanahan era ended.

This is a must-win game for both teams and with the Giants’ season on the line on Sept. 25, the Yankees having been eliminated from postseason contention on Wednesday and the Rangers not starting for another 14 days, I feel like Mitch’s co-worker in the copy room trying to join the fraternity in Old School: “You listen to me. I need this, OK?”

OAKLAND +4 over Miami
I want to believe in the Dolphins because a good Dolphins team means a better chance the Patriots or Jets don’t win the AFC East, but after beating the Patriots in Week 1, the Dolphins have scored 25 points over their last two games and Ryan Tannehill has been just blah. He hasn’t thrown for more than 241 yards in any of his three games and last week at home he completed just 48.8 percent of his passes in a loss to the Chiefs. He hasn’t progressed or showed signs of growing as a quarterback the way you would like a quarterback to start to in his third season.

Oddly enough, the Raiders, who haven’t won a game on the East Coast since 2009, have lost by five and seven points in their two road games against the Jets and Patriots. They have scored even less than the Dolphins (37 points in three games), but they have … well they have … umm … they … OK, fine I don’t have anything good to say about the Raiders or anything positive to try to justify picking them to cover. I guess they did make Tom Brady look as human as any team has in recent years and nearly brought the Patriots to overtime. Other than that, I have nothing. They’re really bad. Let’s move on before I switch this pick.

CHICAGO +1.5 over Green Bay
The Packers aren’t good. They’re just not. But because they have Aaron Rodgers, they are made to be better than they are and I’m sick and tired of hearing about Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Nothing is ever his fault. It’s either his offensive line’s fault or his receivers’ fault and of course it wasn’t his fault when the Packers put up seven points in a dome in Detroit last week.

So far this season, the Packers were routed in Seattle, needed to overcome a 21-0 deficit and survive a controversial timeout call to beat the Jets at home and had that seven-point performance against the Lions. Get out on the Packers while you still can.

Buffalo +3 over HOUSTON
For anyone who watched Ryan Fitzpatrick play quarterback for the Texans on Sunday, how the eff do the Texans have one win let alone two? I guess when he has Arian Foster to hand the ball off to like he did in Weeks 1 and 2 when he only attempted 22 and 19 passes respectively his job is a little easier than when he is asked to throw the ball 34 times like he did against the Giants, resulting in three interceptions.

It hasn’t even been three years since Fitzpatrick signed a six-year, $59 million contract with the Bills during the 2011 season when his stock was the highest and he was shifting power in fantasy leagues across the country, but it feels like that was 30 years ago with the way his career has gone since, bouncing around from Buffalo to Tennessee and now to Houston. With Houston playing Buffalo, Dallas, Indianapolis and Pittsburgh in their next four games, there’s a good chance Ryan Mallett becomes the quarterback of the Texans around Week 8.

INDIANAPOLIS -7.5 over Tennessee
The 2014 Colts are going to look back on the season and thank the Jaguars for propelling them to a great season in Week 3 by giving them their first win, building their confidence and getting back on track after two devastating losses to start the season. And after thanking the Jaguars, the Colts are going to thank the Titans for continuing the Colts’ surge and keeping them on track in Week 4.

Carolina +3.5 over BALTIMORE
After Roger Goodell’s press conference last Friday, I thought we would have to wait a long time for a worse press conference from a high-ranking major sports executive and even then we might never see one. But three days later, Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti decided he would take a run at the title by holding his own press conference and just jumping right into questions in an attempt to rebut the ESPN Outside The Lines piece that ripped apart the Ravens’ handling of the Ray Rice situation and made them out to be liars. Luckily, on this site, I don’t have anyone who can suspend me for calling someone else a liar, so I will gladly call Bisciotti a liar because if you have ever asked anyone a question knowing as a fact they are lying well that’s exactly how Bisciotti acted on Monday.

Bisciotti didn’t come across as someone who started his own business out of his basement, eventually making him a billionaire, and he didn’t speak like someone who is worth a reported $1.5 billion. Bisciotti stuttered and mumbled and “umm’d” and “uhh’d” his way through a painful question-answering session in which he frequently told reporters that his answer to their question was “in the statement” referring to a nine-page statement handed out minutes before the press conference began. As an entrepreneur, who has obviously made great decisions and who could spend $50,000 a day for the next 50 years and still have $587.5 million left, why would you think it would be a good idea to hand out a lengthy statement full of answers minutes before beginning a press conference and then getting testy that people are asking questions that have been answered in the statement?

Detroit -2 over NEW YORK JETS
We are so, so, so, so, so close to hearing Michael Vick chants at MetLife Stadium and if the first half of this game gets away from the Jets, we could very well see the end of Geno Smith’s career as a starting quarterback. That might seem unfair considering he is only in his second season in the league, but Rex Ryan is coaching for his job in 2015 and his job is solely tied to wins and losses and if Geno can’t get him wins, he is going to turn to someone who might be able to.

Rex isn’t with the Jets to grow with Geno and build the franchise since Geno isn’t his quarterback and he isn’t John Idzik’s guy. He is leftover from the previous regime and Idzik has obviously wanted him gone and his own coach brought in since he arrived in New York. If the Jets have a losing season, Idzik will get that chance. If Rex plays Vick and Vick wins then Rex saves his job and creates a problem for Idzik since at 34, Vick isn’t the quarterback of the future for the Jets, and if Geno isn’t playing, he certainly isn’t the quarterback of the future either.

The Jets are on 1-yard line of having a five-alarm dilemma on their hands and if you watched the Bears’ receivers abuse the Jets’ secondary at will on Monday night then it looks like Calvin Johnson and company could be the ones to get Michael Vick more than one snap a game.

PITTSBURGH -7.5 over Tampa Bay
Everything I said about the Steelers last week was thrown out the window after they went into Carolina and embarrassed the Panthers on Sunday Night Football. But everything I said about the Buccaneers was correct.

Maybe this is a trap pick since everyone will be on the Steelers already because they are a national team and then they will be on them extra because the Buccaneers gave up 56 points last week, but if it’s a trap, I’m falling for it.

SAN DIEGO -13.5 over Jacksonville
The Jaguars are 0-3 this year and have lost by 17, 31 and 27, so on average they lose by 25. Last season they went 4-12 and lost by an average of 18.5. So if you think the Jaguars are going to lose, which they are, then there’s a very good chance they lose by two touchdowns since 19 of their last 29 losses have come by at least 14 points and that’s before you factor in that they will be flying across the country to face a Chargers team that flew across the country and beat the 2-0 and emotionally-high Bills last week and knocked off the defending Super Bowl champions the week before. Good luck to every person who will be teasing this game and also selecting it in their elimination pool.

Philadelphia +5 over SAN FRANCISCO
Like, the Packers, the 49ers just aren’t that good. For the last three regular seasons you could have called them the best team in the NFL and no one would have really taken exception with it. But now the 49ers are no longer one of the league’s elite teams. They are a good team, and not a great team, even though I wish they would be a great team this week and beat up on the Eagles, it’s not going to happen.

MINNESOTA +3 over Atlanta
I’m rooting for the Vikings to win this game because my girlfriend is a Vikings fan and Sunday won’t be fun for me if I’m sitting next to her rooting against her team that was destroyed by Adrian Peterson’s personal choices. Maybe now that Teddy Bridgewater is playing, the Vikings will throw downfield, which is something Matt Cassel couldn’t do and has never been able to do. When you have Cordarrelle Patterson on your team, you should probably use him.

New Orleans -3 over DALLAS
This pick goes against everything I know and say about the Outside the Superdome Saints, but AT&T Stadium is basically a dome and the Saints have won their last two games there. I trust this pick as much as I trust the Outside the Superdome Saints, but I still trust them more than the Cowboys.

KANSAS CITY +3.5 over New England
Millions of dollars in elimination pools were saved when Derek Carr threw a game-ending interception against the Patriots and millions of dollars in teasers were lost when Tom Brady threw for only 234 yards, one touchdown and forced the Patriots to settle for three field goals against the Raiders. So far this season, the Patriots allowed 33 points to the scoring-challenged Dolphins in a loss, beat up on the Vikings immediately following Adrian Peterson’s suspension, which left the Vikings without a game plan and then had to hang on and have a rookie quarterback in his third career game make an ill-advised throw at the Patriots’ 12 in the final minute to win.

I have long waited for the Patriots to become just another team and even though they haven’t won a Super Bowl in what will be 10 years this season, they have still appeared in two over that time and made another three AFC Championship Games. But the dynasty is finally slowing down and coming to an end. Brady’s protection isn’t what it once was when he could stand like a statue for what seemed like a minute in the pocket, the team has failed to give him proven receivers even though the league has changed its rule to favor offense and overall, he looks like the quarterback who became a starter starting in 2001 and not the one who took over the game starting in 2007.

Last week: 9-7-0
Season: 21-27-0

Blogs • Email Exchanges • Giants

Sep 24, 2014

Turning Point for Giants and Redskins

The Giants and Redskins meet on Thursday Night Football and one team will head into a 10-day break feeling good at 2-2 and one team’s season will be over at 1-3.

Sunday was a must-win game for the Giants and Thursday is also a must-win game for the Giants. After getting past the Texans and what would have been a disastrous and season-ending 0-3 start to the season, the Giants are faced with the possibility of either getting to 2-2 before a 10-day break, or falling to 1-3 and basically guaranteeing a third straight playoff-less year.

With the Giants and Redskins meeting on Thursday Night Football, I did an email exchange with my friend and the biggest Redskins fan I know, Ray Schneider, to talk about whether the Redskins’ future is with RGIII or Kirk Cousins, if moving on from Mike Shanahan was the right move and how the Jay Gruden era has been going in Washington.

Keefe: The first thing I said when RGIII went down with a dislocated ankle was “Oh fuck.” Not because I’m an RGIII fan or care about his future or the Redskins’ success but because I’m a Giants fan, and one who knows that Kirk Cousins is a better quarterback than RGIII and that means the Redskins just got better in an already cluttered NFC East.

Cousins has only reinforced my opinion on the RGIII-Cousins debate by throwing for 250 yards and two two touchdowns against the Jaguars and then 427 yards and three touchdowns in a devastating loss to the Eagles. (I unfortunately had the Redskins in a parlay.)

Ray, the future for your Cubs is looking up with their abundance of young talent and the future of your Redskins could be looking up if they finally admit that Cousins is the better option over RGIII at quarterback and stick with Cousins even when RGIII returns. I know Cousins has said, “This is RGIII’s team,” but it shouldn’t be even though I want it to be for the Giants’ sake.

Please tell me that you know Cousins should be the permanent starter.

Schneider: When I began reading that, I thought your initial response to RGIII’s injury was out of concern for my well-being. But yeah, there’s no denying that Cousins has played great these past 2 weeks and is light years ahead of RGIII in Gruden’s offense at this point. As a Skins fan, my hope is that Cousins continues to play out of his mind for the next 6-7 weeks and there isn’t a question of who the permanent starter is once RGIII is healthy.

That being said, there was never an expectation that 3esus was going light up the league beginning Week 1. Gruden was brought to DC to evolve RGIII’s game and some of the hiccups along the way were to be expected. Griffin’s ceiling is so much higher than Cousins’ that I am okay with the bumps and bruises along the way, but if Cousins plays at an elite level for the remainder of his stay as interim starter, he’s our guy.

Keefe: I was somewhat concerned for your well-being after the Week 1 debacle against the Texans mixed with the loss of RGIII, but after the rout of the Jaguars and the play of Cousins, I thought you were probably doing fine.

I’m very surprised to have you so easily agree with me on Cousins over RGIII. After RGIII’s draft and following postseason appearance I thought you were going to grow your hair out again, get dreadlocks and get RGIII’s jersey tattooed on your body. I mean, you nearly did that for Jason Campbell seven years ago, and when Campbell’s days in Washington were over and he played for Oakland, Chicago, Cleveland and now Cincinnati, I pictured you singing Pearl Jam’s “Black” if his career ever finally took off.

I know someday you’ll have a beautiful life, 
I know you’ll be a sun in somebody else’s sky, 
But why, why, why can’t it be, can’t it be mine?

I know how strongly you support your Redskins, so I think it’s normal for me to be shocked that you so quickly jumped off the RGIII for the Cousins one. Maybe Cousins can be your Matt Saracen or do you think the Redskins are still a few years from that? If so, how many years? Cubs years?

Schneider: Slow down … I haven’t gotten off the RGIII bandwagon quite yet. I still really do believe that RGIII has the talent to be a multiple Super Bowl winning quarterback, but I also realize the injury concern with him is legitimate — which is why I’m going to the tattoo artist on Saturday to see how hard it’ll be to have the “10” on my chest touched-up to read “8” (the guy worked wonders changing the “17” to a “10”, so I’m hopeful).

If Cousins can continue to play the role of franchise savior over this audition run, it is a wonderful problem for the Skins to have. Do we move forward with the guy that established himself as one of the best young quarterbacks playing in 2014 or do we move forward with the guy that had arguably one of the most dynamic seasons ever by a quarterback and won us the division just two years ago? Not really a bad problem.

If Kirk proves to be more Matt Flynn and less Tom Brady over these next two months, the question of RGIII’s durability becomes a lot more frightening.

Keefe: That “10” used to be a “17?” Get out of here. That guy does great work.

When Mike Shanahan was the head coach, it seemed like every week there was a new story about his relationship with RGIII and they all seemed to negative. It didn’t help that standing between the head coach and the franchise quarterback was an offensive coordinator who was Shanahan’s son, but there always seemed to be a disconnect between the coach and quarterback, especially at the end of his tenure.

Shanahan came to to the Redskins 12 years removed from winning the Super Bowl with the Broncos and was supposed to bring with him the offensive genius he was during his time in Denver. The Redskins went 24-40, lost their only playoff game to the Seahawks and finished in last place in the NFC East three of the the four years Shanahan was coach. However, I don’t think he’s that distraught over it since he’s making $7 million this year to sit at home and not coach football, which is a lot more money than you and I are making to not coach football this year.

Before we get to the Jay Gruden era, were you a Shanahan guy and should he have been back for 2014?

Schneider: At first I was, but what’s important to remember is that Shanahan was hired on the heels of Jim Zorn’s departure. At the time it seemed like things were being righted with the Redskins. Snyder’s longtime yes-man/VP of Football Operations, Vinny Cerrato, had just left and control of the team was going to be shared between Bruce Allen and Shanahan. No longer did the fate of the Skins lie in the hands of Snyder and the dude that starred in the acclaimed film Kindergarten Ninja.

Pretty much immediately following Shanahan’s introductory press conference is when things stopped being so rosy. Listed in somewhat chronological order, here are some of the highlights of the Shanahan era:

1. Donovan McNabb: Andy Reid still can’t believe he got a second- and fourth-round pick. Mike also signed Donovan to a five-year extension a week after benching him for Rex Grossman and just hours before Donovan’s former team came to FedEx Field and did terrible things to the Skins. A few weeks later Donovan was once again benched for Rex and so ended his DC-stay.

2. Albert Haynesworth: Granted Shanahan had nothing to do with bringing Fat Al to the Skins and the guy is a genuine piece of shit, but the whole conditioning test was embarrassing for everyone involved.

3. Rex Grossman/John Beck: The Skins have had some pretty storied quarterback battles in their history, Grossman vs. Beck is not one of them, but don’t let Mike tell you otherwise as he said, “I put my reputation on these guys that they can play.”

4. Week 3, 2011 at Dallas, Zero Blitz: With Dallas facing a third-and-21 and trailing by 1 late in the fourth quarter, the Skins call an all-out blitz. Tony Romo hits Dez Bryant for a 30-yard hookup and the Cowboys kick a field goal and win the game. Defensive coordinator Jim Haslett was blasted by the fan base for this call except Mike was the one that made the call.

5. Wild-Card Game vs. Seattle: Some could argue that Shanahan took the easy way out by relying too-heavily on RGIII’s legs and didn’t take the time to develop his skills as a passer — I’m not going to, that season and RGIII were electrifying. BUT what Shanahan and son did in the playoff game was absolutely reckless. With Robert already playing on a clearly hobbled knee, the Shanahans continued to call zone-read after zone-read until The Savior’s knee was shredded.

6. 2013 Draft: The Redskins had seven picks in the 2013 Draft — only two remain on the active roster and only one will be playing against the Giants this week.

So no, I did not want Mike Shanahan around this team any longer.

Keefe: I knew things were bad during the Mike Shanahan era, I didn’t realize how in-depth bad they were, so thank you for laying those out for me. I only wish you had told me those in person, so you could be present for me laughing. Donovan McNabb! Albert Haynesworth! Rex Grossman! Oh my!

I missed most of that wild-card game against Seattle because I was up in Boston that weekend to see Louis CK and I believe I was on my way back to New York City when Shanahan was busy blowing out RGIII’s knee as if he were Kurt Russell in Miracle calling for Team USA to bag skate over and over just waiting for someone to collapse on the ice. You siad it was “reckless” and I would agree. I would also say it was “irresponsible” and not only because it was detrimental to RGIII’s career, but because a different game plan could have won that game for the Redskins.

That brings us to Jay Gruden. Since you’re happy the Mike Shanahan era came to an end, are you happy that the next era started with Jay Gruden as the head coach?

Schneider: I am and that’s largely because of what Gruden did with Andy Dalton. With Gruden being a former quarterback himself, everything that is said about him is that he approaches the game with the mindset of a quarterback. Obviously after Shanahan shredded both RGIII’s knee and his psyche, it was exciting to hear there would be someone in charge that would build him back up.

Even with the Gruden directed Griffin redemption story being put on hold for the next few weeks or maybe forever, I still think Skins fans have a reason to be excited. The offense can not only move up and down the field but they can also score points, which Shanahan teams had trouble doing.

Gruden isn’t the control freak that Shanahan was either. He’s happy to let the defensive coaches call their game without his interference & they’ve looked much better … aside from the 37 points they let up on Sunday.

With better special teams play and little more discipline, the Skins should be 3-0 right now. Everyone can play the shoulda, coulda, woulda game, but these are things a young coach will clean up, so I think the future is bright with Gruden.

Keefe: You sound optimistic about the Kirk Cousins era, the Jay Gruden era and the Redskins as a whole, which is exactly how I would expect you to sound since you are usually feeling good about your team at this point in the season. Hopefully the New York Football Giants can change that on Thursday night.

One team is going to leave FedEx Field at 2-2 and one is going to leave at 1-3. If the Giants win, they will have won back-to-back games after an embarrassing and disappointing 0-2 start in which their offense looked worse than Roger Goodell lying his way through his press conference last week. If they lose, they will be 1-3 with and have a divisional loss lingering for the next 10 days before starting the following schedule: Atlanta, at Philadelphia, at Dallas, BYE, Indianapolis, at Seattle, San Francisco, Dallas. I don’t want to say the Giants’ season is over if they lose to the Redskins because you never know with the Giants, but their season is likely over if they lose.

If the Redskins win, they can feel good about themselves after dropping back-to-back games and Kirk Cousins will have confidence before playing the Seahawks and Cardinals. If they lose, their only win so far will have been against the Jaguars and their season could fall apart with Seattle and Arizona the next two weeks.

This game is the turning point for both teams. One of us is going to be happy for the next 10 days and one of us is going to be wondering how their season ended before the end of September.

What do you expect on Thursday night?

Schneider: It’s never good to be declaring a game a must-win by Week 4, but you’re right, this is a must-win for both teams.

As much as last week’s loss to the Eagles was devastating, it could serve as a real confidence builder for the team. Stomping the Jaguars was fun, but there was still the realization that it was the Jaguars. Going into Philly and giving the defending NFC East champs all they could take for 60 minutes is a completely different story. I foresee the Skins riding this wave of confidence to a 31-17 victory that looks more lopsided than it sounds.

Blogs • Giants

Sep 19, 2014

Giants-Texans Is Must-Win at MetLife

The Giants have to beat the Texans to save their season and prevent a second straight 0-3 start and make sure they aren’t eliminated from the postseason before October.

Five teams have made the playoffs after starting 0-3. Five. Ever. That means if the Giants lose on Sunday to the Texans, the only way their season continues into January is if they make history. And with shaky receivers, a bad offensive line, a rookie offensive coordinator, a non-existent pass rush and Eli Manning trying to do it all by himself, there is a better chance of Odell Beckham catching a touchdown pass this weekend against the Texans than there is of the Giants making history.

With the Giants and Texans meeting for the first time since 2010, I did an email exchange with Matt Campbell of Battle Red Blog to talk about the Texans’ decision to pass on Johnny Manziel, the end of the Matt Schaub era in Houston and the differences between Bill O’Brien and Gary Kubiak.

Keefe: Prior to the NFL Draft, a handful of players saw themselves listed at some point as the potential No. 1 overall pick of the Texans. Johnny Manziel was one of those names and being from Texas and going to Texas A&M and with the Texans have the first pick it seemed like perfect match for a franchise that needed a franchise quarterback. But as had been predicted from the start of the 2013 college football season, Jadeveon Clowney was drafted first overall.

I’m a huge Johnny Football fan and have been hoping the Browns’ season would get off to a rough start and the “JOHN-NY FOOT-BALL” chants would break out in Cleveland. Unfortunately, Brian Hoyer has the Browns at 1-1 and almost at 2-0 with a near comeback on the road in Pittsburgh.

Clowney was always the correct and safe No. 1 pick, but do you ever think about what the Texans might look with Manizel as the future of the franchise?

Campbell: Do I think of what the Texans might look like with Manziel? No. Why? Because Manziel couldn’t beat out Brian effin’ Hoyer in Cleveland, where they have been starved for a dynamic quarterback since that two-week period where people pretended like Kelly Holcomb was an actual human being. There’s zero chance Manziel would have beaten out Ryan Fitzpatrick, who, while cursed with a horrid Seven-Brides-for-Seven-Brothers neckbeard, has been been far better than I anticipated.

On top of which, Bill O’Brien’s offensive line already has question marks. The thought of them trying to block for someone who is (a) not tall enough to stand in the pocket consistently and (b) has no desire to stay in the pocket anyway is terrifying.

Also, Johnny Manziel is a douche. That’s important to remember. Always.

Keefe: Matt Schaub went from “Quarterback Who Could Possibly Lead Houston to a “Super Bowl to Backup Quarterback on Possible the Worst Team in the NFL” in one year. After destroying the Texans’ 2012 season, he was traded to Oakland for a sixth-round pick.

Schaub had some good years during his nine years in Houston, but he could never get over the hump of leading his team to at least the AFC Championship Game and it seemed like he might not be the quarterback who could ever do that. But somewhere between the first two weeks of the 2013 season and the weeks following, he lost his ability.

What happened to Matt Schaub? And are you happy he is no longer on the Texans?

Campbell: Matt Schaub was with the Texans for seven years. In those seven years, he had three full seasons and four in which he played 10 or 11 games. I hate the label “injury prone,” but if the glass slipper fits …

Here’s the thing, though: what Kubiak wanted Schaub to be able to do, if the offense was running well, was the bootleg or naked bootleg. Once Fat Albert broke Schaub’s foot, Matt was never able to convince anyone that he was actually a threat to run more than a few feet, so the bootleg became worthless. Without the bootleg, Schaub’s Trent-Green-esque arm strength was a huge liability.

So, no … I’m not sad that he’s gone, and I’m very happy he’s gone. Ryan Fitzpatrick is no great shakes, but the one thing he’s not is a post-Lis-Franc Matt Schaub. (For the record, the other thing Fitzpatrick is not is Eli Manning, circa 2014. So that’s good, too.)

Keefe: From 2010 to 2012, Arian Foster rushed for 1,616, 1,224 and 1,424 yards and last year he had 542 yards in eight games. He has been on the game’s elite running backs for the last four years and already has 241 rushing yards this season.

The Giants have so many problems that we couldn’t cover them all in this email exchange in time for Sunday’s game, but their biggest problem over the last few years has been their lack of a running game. Hopefully signing Rashad Jennings and drafting Andre Williams will change that, but through two games, their contributions haven’t been anything special.

What’s it like to have arguably the best running back in the game in your backfield knowing that even on days when your passing game isn’t on that you can count on a premier running back to carry the offense? Or maybe you shouldn’t tell me because it will only make me upset thinking about Giants’ running backs having only nine 100-yard games over the last 34 games.

Campbell: Arian Foster is a pterodactyl-speaking god. He doesn’t have breakaway speed — not even close — but he has vision and balance that more than compensate for his lack of elite speed. He’s also one of the smartest players in the game, so he’s not prone to those mental slumps that some players fall into.

Last year, the amount of use he’d seen in the previous seasons finally caught up with him and left him a shell of what he’d been. Thankfully, the team was willing to shut him down and not force the issue, so Foster was able to get a lot of time to heal. While I don’t think he’ll ever be the 2011 Arian Foster again, some of the cuts we’ve seen in the first two games (against, admittedly, sub-par NFL defenses) remind me of those moments. He has more 100-yard games than every other Texans running back combined.

What were we talking about? Oh, right — what it’s like to have Arian Foster. It’s awesome. The dude talks trash to Anheuser-Busch on Twitter for crying out loud.

Keefe: After eight seasons, an under-.500 record and just four playoff games, Gary Kubiak was finally fired as head coach of the Texans with three games left in the 2013 season. Wade Phillips took over for Kubiak, probably thinking that he might have a chance to be the next Texans head coach, which would have been good news for the rest of the AFC South.

Anyone who spends time on Bill Belichick’s coaching staff eventually gets a better opportunity somewhere else and that was the case with Bill O’Brien, who left his job as Patriots offensive coordinator to be the head coach of Penn State. After the job he did with the Patriots under Belichick and his work at Penn State, O’Brien became the most sought after name for NFL teams with head coach openings. O’Brien had his pick of jobs and chose to go to Houston.

Was O’Brien the coach you wanted? What is your early evaluation of him?

Campbell: O’Brien was on the short list of people I wanted, primarily because he went into a tire fire of a situation in Happy Valley and actually looked alright. He made Matt McGloin look like … something other than Matt McGloin, which is impressive. Also, my biggest complaint about Gary Kubiak was always the lack of creativity in play calling and assignments. BO’B put J.J. Watt in at tight end last week. I’ve wanted that for a couple years.

Plus, I don’t know if you’ve seen BO’B in locker room video, but the dude curses like a sailor. Gary Kubiak was more of the “gosh, guys, that’s just not real keen” type. o, even as a Michigan fan, I’m more than comfortable saying that I’m strongly pro-BO’B.

Keefe: The last time the Giants and Texans played was on Oct. 10, 2010 in Week 5. The Giants won that game 34-10, held the Texans to a franchise-low 24 rushing yards and held someone named Arian Foster to 25 rushing yards. A lot has changed since that game over the last four years since then.

The Giants don’t really know where they’re going or what they are as a team and whether they’re in rebuilding mode or in go-for-it mode. The problem is they’re likely somewhere between the two, which is the worst place to be in not just football, but professional sports.

The Texans, on the other hand, have a new coach and a new quarterback following a disastrous 2013 season and back-to-back early playoff exits in 2011 and 2012 and at 2-0 look to be headed in the right direction.

What do you expect on Sunday at MetLife Stadium?

Campbell: Romeo has the Texans’ secondary playing FAR better than I expected coming into the season, and D.J. Swearinger is supposed to play on Sunday. The Giants offensive line, from what I’ve seen, likes to let Eli try to figure out what to do when defensive ends are making his life flash before his eyes. There are no better defensive ends in the game right now than JJ Watt, and I’d wager that J.J. is kind of irritated that he didn’t get a sack last week, despite constant harassment of Baby Carr.

My prediction? Pain. 27-10, Texans. Elisha with 3 picks. Joy in Mudville. Etc.

Blogs • Giants

Sep 18, 2014

NFL Week 3 Picks

The Week 2 Picks went about as well as the Giants-Cardinals game and 2014 is beginning to look a lot like 2013 for my picks and the Giants.

Last year my picks season mirrored the Giants’ season. My start was as bad as their 0-6 start, I picked it up in the middle of the season, but fell short of making up for the early-season mistakes to save the season. This year, unfortunately, I have a feeling I’m going to go down the same road.

Last week, Eli Manning threw two interceptions (even if one came with nine seconds left and the game already over), Rashad Jennings lost a fumble for just the second time in 55 career games despite after tripping over his own feet and going untouched, the special teams let Ted Ginn Jr. ran back a 71-yard punt return, Quintin Demps fumbled the kickoff following the Ginn Jr. return to seal the loss and on two plays the Giants’ 14-13 lead became an insurmountable deficit. As for me, well I went 4-12 in Week 2 and likely put myself in an insurmountable hole with still 15 weeks to pick games and then the playoffs.

(Home team in caps)

ATLANTA -6.5 over Tampa Bay
The Thursday game used to be my bread and butter. No matter who I picked, I would win. This year, however, I’m off to an 0-2 start thanks to thinking the Packers could hang around in Seattle with a healthy Aaron Rodgers and for thinking that the circus surrounding the Ravens would be too much for them to beat up on the Steelers. (But to my credit, 10 of the previous 12 Steelers-Ravens games were decided by three points and one of the other two was decided by four points.)

The Tampa Bay bandwagon has been pulled out of service like the New York subway cars with bed bugs and after losing at home to a Rams team quarterbacked by Austin Davis, I think it’s been derailed for the season. Normally I wouldn’t give 6.5 points in a divisional game (unless that game involves the Jaguars or Raiders), but I think I have to make an exception for the Buccaneers after their first two games.

BUFFALO -2.5 over San Diego
In 2008, the Bills started 4-0 and were 5-1 before finishing the season 2-8. In 2011, the Bills were 3-0 then 4-1 then 5-2 before finishing the season 1-8. Since making the playoffs in 1999, the Bills have finished over .500 once (9-7 in 2004) and were 88-136 in the 14 seasons since then.

I want the Bills to be good. Bills fans deserve to have a team that’s good. And this 2-0 start with wins over the Bears on the road and the Dolphins at home are either a sign that Bills fans are getting what they deserve or just the latest example of how insane parity in the NFL truly is. It’s hard to buy into a good Bills start when you consider the way two other good starts finished in recent years, but the Chargers are coming off the high of beating the Super Bowl champions and then have to fly across the country to face an overly-confident Bills team, so this un-Bills-like start might not be over yet.

Dallas -1 over ST. LOUIS RAMS
I wish I could use this:

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Cowboys fan or a Rams fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

But because it’s the Cowboys, most of the country is going to watch and bet on this game. (I do realize a lot of the time I should be using that “Somewhere someone who isn’t a …” on Giants games.)

Washington +6.5 over PHILADELPHIA
After a long wedding weekend, I fell asleep before the Colts blew their 27-20 fourth-quarter lead and gave the Eagles a win I desperately didn’t want them to get for the Giants’ (very slim) playoff chances this year.

If RGIII were starting this game, I would have picked Philadelphia to cover, but Kirk Cousins is now the Redskins’ starting quarterback and that’s bad news for the Giants since the NFC East already has enough average teams who could possbily someway somehow sneak into the playoffs.

NEW YORK GIANTS +2 over Houston
This is it for the New York Football Giants and me. This is a must-win game and if they lose this game their season is over at 0-3, two weeks after it started. Last year at 0-6, the Giants were able to fight back to 4-6 and put themselves in position to control their own destiny, but this year that won’t work. After giving up a very winnable home game against a back-up quarterback, who hadn’t played in a game since 2010, the Giants now have to go 10-4 to make the playoffs. The problem is that after the Texans this Sunday and the Redskins on Thursday night, they have Atlanta, Philadelphia, Dallas, Indianapolis, Seattle and San Francisco. Even if the first three of those six games aren’t exactly a gauntlet, the last three certainly are. So this is it for the 2014 Giants and for me picking the 2014 Giants.

NEW ORLEANS -10.5 over Minnesota
The first Saints home game of the season. Let me go back to what I said before their last home game in 2013.

The Saints’ last home loss with Sean Payton as head coach came in Week 17 in 2010 when they had nothing to play for. Including the playoffs, with Payton as head coach, the Saints have won all of their home games since that loss and here are their margins of victory in those games: 25, 18, 3, 32, 18, 21, 24, 6, 17, 28, 29, 14, 25, 11, 55, 7 and 17.

The Saints don’t lose in the Superdome and that’s before you factor in that they are 0-2 and looking at watching their season end before it even starts like it did in 2012. On top of that, the Vikings have a PR nightmare on their hands with their best player being inactive and then active and then placed on the exempt list in a single day. The AP Vikings could have been in the mix for the NFC North title, but the AP-less Vikings will have Teddy Bridgewater learning to play in the NFL starting around Week 5.

CINCINNATI -7 over Tennessee
The Bengals are becoming the AFC Saints and Paul Brown Stadium is becoming the Superdome. The Bengals have won their last 10 regular-season home games since Week 14 in 2012 and have become the best team in the AFC North since the start of last year.

CLEVELAND +1.5 over Baltimore
I have been rooting against the Browns for the first two weeks of the season because Browns wins mean no Johnny Football. After putting a scare into the Steelers in Pittsburgh, the Browns beat the Outside the Superdome Saints and instead of “JOHN-NY FOOT-BALL” chants in Cleveland, Browns fans think they have a chance to compete and an outside chance at the postseason with Brian Hoyer. As badly as I want the Browns’ season to hit a losing streak, so that Johnny Football starts to play, I want the Ravens to lose that much more.

Green Bay +2.5 over DETROIT
This is my third week picking the Packers and so far they have done nothing but give me two losses. After being run out of Seattle and having a real scare put into them and their season by the Jets at Lambeau, the Packers have three divisional games in a row and if they play like they did for the first six quarters of their season, they could be in the same spot as the Giants when October rolls around.

Indianapolis -7 over JACKSONVILLE
I would like to see the Jaguars be competitive this season since the team has won 11 games over the last three-plus years. But I do like free wins when it comes to picks, even though I stupidly picked them to cover 5.5 points in Washington last week (they lost 41-10). When the Jaguars led 17-0 over the Eagles in Week 1, I thought we were finally seeing the team turn a corner and maybe this year their losses wouldn’t be by an average of 18.5 points like they were last year. But then the Jaguars were outscored 34-0 in the second half of the game and have been outscored 85-27 in the first two weeks of the season. And now the Jaguars are getting an 0-2 Colts team that gave away a game to the Eagles on Monday and came up short in their comeback attempt against the Broncos in Week 2. That -58 point differential isn’t going to start getting better this week.

NEW ENGLAND -14.5 over Oakland
The Raiders are the worst team in football. Well, maybe they aren’t. I’m sure the Jaguars and even the Giants would give them a good game, but the Raiders’ schedule has 2-14 as the best-case scenario written all over it and a meeting with history and the 2008 Lions as the worst-case scenario.

The Raiders haven’t won an East Coast game since 2009 and now they are flying to New England just two weeks after flying here to play the Jets, and sandwiched in between the two games was a 30-14 loss at home to the Texans.

San Francisco -3 over ARIZONA
The way the 49ers gave away Sunday night to the Bears in their stadium-opening game looked the exact same way the Giants would give away a game and it brought a smile to my face knowing that the G-Men aren’t the only ones capable of self destructing in seconds and blowing what would appear to be a sure win. The difference between the 49ers and Giants is that these types of losses are extremely rare for the 49ers and a near-weekly occurrence for the Giants. The 2011-14 49ers aren’t used to what happened against the Bears and it’s unlikely to happen again. As for the Giants, well I don’t think it would surprise anyone if we get a re-run of the Cardinals game against the Texans.

SEATTLE -4.5 over Denver
Super Bowl XLIX was played in New Jersey at MetLife Stadium, about 3,000 miles away from CenturyLink Field. Imagine if it had been played in Seattle. I think we are going to get the chance to see that.

MIAMI -4.5 over Kansas City
I thought I had finally learned last year that you can’t trust the Dolphins after I kept picking them and picking them and picking them while they destroyed their playoff chances with back-t0-back losses to the Bills (19-0) and Jets (20-7) to finish the season. So after I picked against the Dolphins in Week 1 against the Patriots, only to have them win, I picked the Dolphins to win in Buffalo in Week 2, only to have them lose by 19. So here I am, once again picking for the Dolphins at home to cover a difficult and tricky 4.5-point spread against the 0-2 Chiefs. I fully expect a double-digit Chiefs win.

CAROLINA -3.5 over Pittsburgh
The Panthers went 12-4 and went 11-1 after a 1-3 start and their only loss in those 12 games was in New Orleans where every team has lost with Sean Payton as head coach since the end of the 2010 season. So this year when everyone picked the Panthers to regress and be a disappointment I jumped on the anti-2014 Panthers bus because that seemed like the cool thing to do at the time and everyone was doing it as if if I were a 12-year-old being offered to take a drag of a cigarette in the woods behind the junior high school. But then the Panthers won on the road with Derek Anderson as their quarterback in Week 1 and beat up on the Lions and shut down Calvin Johnson as well as anyone can shut down Calvin Johnson in Week 2 and now they’re 2-0.

After back-to-back postseason-less seasons for the Steelers, everyone was seemingly picking them to get back to being one of the league’s elite. The only theme I had been hearing consistently over the last two years about the Steelers was how old they have gotten (like a baseball team I root for), so I was a little unsure as to why they were suddenly being hyped up as if it were 2010 again. But like the Panthers, I bought in and picked the Steelers to cover in Week 1 against the Browns and then again in Week 2 against the Ravens. They barely escaped the Browns game with a win and then couldn’t get up for the Ravens despite the Ravens being in the middle of one of the worst weeks in the history of the NFL.

I’m back to being pro-Panthers and anti-Steelers, which is how I should have been all along.

Chicago +2.5 over NEW YORK JETS
If the Jets hadn’t blown a 21-3 lead at Lambeau Field and were now 2-0 on the season and 1-0 to start their impossible six-week gauntlet, I’m sure my friend Tim Duff would be calling me to do his post-Green Bay trip podcast. Instead, Duff has been “unavailable” this week to talk about the Jets’ timeout debacle and loss to the Packers (though we are supposed to record the podcast by Friday). And I think he represents all Jets fans who would have been proclaiming the Jets as the Kings of the City (this worked out well in 2011) and would have been looking ahead to January and the playoffs.

Last week: 4-12-0
Season: 12-20-0