Email Exchanges – Page 4 – Keefe To The City

Jul 10, 2015

Yankees Can Once Again End Red Sox’ Season

The Yankees put an end to the Red Sox’ recent resurgence and end their comeback bid with a win or two at Fenway Park this weekend.

In August 2006, the Yankees swept the Red Sox in a five-game series in Boston and ended the Red Sox’ season. It was a glorious four days with wins of 12-4 and 14-11 in a doubleheader on Friday, 13-5 on Saturday, 8-5 in 10 innings on Sunday and 2-1 on Monday. This weekend, the Yankees can end the Red Sox’ season once again and all they really have to do is win once at Fenway Park.

With the Yankees and Red Sox meeting for the third time this season, I emailed Mike Hurley of CBS Boston because that’s what I do when the Yankees and Red Sox play.

Keefe: It’s feel like forever since the Yankees and Red Sox played and therefore it feels like forever since I was up in Boston taking in the first Yankees sweep at Fenway Park since 2006.

Unfortunately, I missed the 2006 Boston Massacre as I had to sell my tickets to one of the doubleheader games being made up from Johnny Damon’s Fenway return that May, and I never got over missing out on being there for the five-game sweep and the end of the Red Sox’ 2006 season. This weekend I will be on the West Coast for this series and once again will miss out on the opportunity for the Yankees to end the Red Sox’ season, much like that August 2006 series.

But we have so much more to talk about before we get to what could be the end for the Red Sox. Let’s start with how we got to this point. And by “this point”, I mean, how we got to the All-Star break with the preseason AL East favorite Red Sox turning back the clock to 2012 and 2014 with another last-place worthy performance.

Hurley: It should be noted that you never – ever – do one of these things when things are going well for Boston sports. Red Sox and Bobby V are going down in flames? Podcast! Patriots lose in the playoffs? Podcast! DeflateGate accusations? Email exchange!

So it’s not surprising to see you pop up in the inbox with the Red Sox in last place before the All-Star break.

Nice to see you.

How’d we get to this point? We know how we all got this point. The Red Sox pitching was atrocious for the first month of the season and has yet to really recover. The starting staff used to be worst in the majors in collective ERA; now they’re fourth-worst.

That’s over-simplifying things, of course, but the teams worse than the Red Sox in starting ERA – Milwaukee, Colorado, Philadelphia – all find themselves in last place as well. No starting pitching, no bueno.

Keefe: How dare you say I only contact you when things aren’t going well for Boston teams. That couldn’t be any less true.

As it stands right now, the Yankees are 46-39 and in first place and the Red Sox are 41-45 and in last place. Six games separate them in the all-important loss column, and well, since I know you love it so much, here we go:

The Yankees have 77 games left. If they go 39-38 in those games, they will finish 85-77. The Red Sox would have to go 44-32 just to tie them. I don’t think the Yankees are going to play .506 baseball the rest of the way and I’m pretty sure the Red Sox aren’t about to go on a .579 run.

What does all of this mean? It means the Yankees basically have to win just once this weekend to keep the Red Sox at bay. That will give them a five-game lead in the loss column for the “second half” with three more games off the schedule.

All of the pressure is on the Red Sox and I wouldn’t want it any other way.

Hurley: Yeah. Optimism is running a little too high around here. The Red Sox have won 9 of 13 and 13 of 19. It’s a nice run. But it’s not going to keep up.

I choose to look at the entirety of the Red Sox season, as well as what the Red Sox have been the past four years. I know they won it all in 2013, thereby ruining your life and making you mad to this very day, but they put forth an epic choke in 2011, they crapped the bed with Bobby V. in 2012, and they were the most boring last-place team in sports history last year.

I know what they are. People can make reasonable statements about their chances, such as the games back, the number of games left in the schedule, blah blah blah. But just look at how many games this team has given away due to bad pitching, idiotic mistakes or a combination of both.

They are what they are, and I don’t think the past two weeks means they’re suddenly a new team.

But here’s my question: I follow you on Twitter. I read your columns. I would be hard-pressed to find an instance of you saying one positive thing about the Yankees this year. You drooled all over A-Rod a lot, but then you complain about Joe Giradi’s use of him. You seemingly hate the outfield, and the infield, and the starting rotation. What makes you so confident that the Yankees are a plus-.500 team from now until the end of the season.

Keefe: I only complain about bad baseball decisions, bad baseball players and bad baseball plays.

If Joe Girardi wants to give players a day off on a Wednesday after having a day off on Monday and having another one on Thursday, I will complain.

If the Yankees want to take their best first-half starter (Adam Warren) and put him in the bullpen as a right-handed specialist while they continue to give CC Sabathia starts and then have the Steinbrenners apologize to us at the end of the season for not giving us a championship and that’s their only goal, I will complain.

If Brian Cashman signs Stephen Drew to a one-year, $5 million deal and then continue to give him at-bats, despite hitting .181/.257/.374 and citing “bad luck” over a two-year span, I will complain.

If Brett Gardner, an All-Star this year, decides to try to steal third with no outs or one outs in a game to get into what I call “better scoring position” and then gets thrown out, I will complain.

I only complain about things that are worth complaining about. The one spot where maybe I am wrong is with Mark Teixeira, given the 2009 throwback season he is having, but I’m not someone who lets three good months erase three years of not playing because of ridiculous injuries and underachieving when playing.

The thing that gives me most confidence with the Yankees is that they are in first place right now after having Masahiro Tanaka out from April 23 to June, Jacoby Ellsbury out from May 19 to July 8 and Andrew Miller out from June 9 to July 8. Wednesday was the first time they had their supposed best starter (Tanaka), best all-around player (Ellsbury) and arguably best reliever (Miller) since April 23, yet they managed to not only stay afloat, but stay at the top of the division. If hundreds of at-bats for Didi Gregorius and Stephen Drew, first-base and left-field appearances from Garrett Jones, starts from CC Sabathia and relief appearances from Esmil Rogers and David Carpenter couldn’t derail the Yankees’ season without their star players for so long, I have to believe in this team.

On the other hand, I can’t believe you don’t believe in Rick Porcello (and his $82.5 million contract), Wade Miley, Joe Kelley, Justin Masterson and Clay Buchholz! Right now the only Red Sox pitcher that scares me is Eduardo Rodriguez and I’m expecting him to throw a complete-game, two-hit shutout this weekend.

Hurley: I wasn’t necessarily saying your complaining wasn’t without warrant, though most of the time it is. And then when the Yankees win you never say anything. You’re the worst.

Anyways, Eduardo Rodriguez absolutely saved the Red Sox season. They were spiraling out of control and no starter could get to even the fourth inning. The kid is awesome.

Buchholz has been pretty great too. He’s got a 1.99 ERA in his last 10 starts. But all it takes is a butterfly to land on his shoulder and he’ll spend the next two months on the DL. I don’t think anyone’s banking on him the rest of the way.

I could sit here and make a case for the Red Sox much like you did yours. They’re actually getting standard production out of every position now except first base, and probably right field. And I do think they’re a little bit better now than they were in May.

But even if I can see them playing better baseball, and even if I can see the Yankees slipping, I can’t see the other three AL East teams simultaneously falling apart to give the Red Sox an avenue to the postseason. That would just be so miraculous, it would be stupid to talk about it seriously.

Still, a sweep one way or the other this weekend, and things get really interesting. If either team takes two out of three (WHICH ALWAYS HAPPENS FOR CHRIST’S SAKE), I will be thoroughly bored.

Keefe: I do talk when the Yankees are winning and am very supportive of A-Rod, Betances, Miller, Gardner, Chris Young, Tanaka, Pineda and Chasen Shreve though that’s about it.

I think Friday is the most important game of the series for the Yankees with Pineda starting. Ivan Nova has only made three starts (two great, one bad) since coming back from Tommy John and with Rodriguez pitching, that game is not likely to go well. That leaves us with Sunday where Nathan “Hits” Eovaldi is sure to give up 10 hits in five innings and Wade Miley is likely to give up his share too. However, that Sunday night game will probably end up being the 2-1 game and the other two will be blowouts.

I just hope Pineda shuts down the Red Sox on Friday, Buchholz implodes early like he did on Sunday Night Baseball in the Bronx in April and the Yankees win that game, quiet Red Sox fans and make the Saturday and Sunday games much less important.

But I’m not stupid enough to think that is going to happen. No game and no lead has ever been safe Yankees at Fenway Park and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Yankees lost the first two games of the series. That would make Sunday a must-win and that would mean my weekend in Los Angeles/San Diego will be ruined.

Why can’t the Red Sox just go away and then all of the attention can be on Tom Brady and his suspension, which is how I’m sure you want it anyway.

Hurley: I was looking up Eovaldi earlier. An 8-2 record with a 4.55 ERA? That is ridiculous. He gets over seven runs of support each start. I think even Neil Keefe could win games with that kind of run support, and I’ve seen him pitch a Wiffle Ball, and he is absolute garbage.

A part of me wants the Red Sox to sweep, because that’ll make for an interesting July, August and September. But another part of me likes to watch the world burn. Please don’t tell that to anybody in Boston though.

Keefe: If you mean having a career Wiffle ball ERA of somewhere around 0.50 as “absolute garbage” then I guess that phrase fits the bill.

Well, I figure you already have all of Pittsburgh, part of Canada and Indianapolis hating you, so you should throw your hometown of Boston into the mix. There is too much optimism in Boston, or at least that’s the feeling I get, about the Red Sox considering that even with a sweep of the Yankees this weekend, they will enter the All-Star break under .500. I don’t care how crammed the AL East standings are, playing under .500 for this long shouldn’t give anyone optimism, so it’s refreshing to hear that you aren’t in that boat.

And since you’re not in that boat and you want to become the next generation’s Dan Shaughnessy, why not dust off that Yankees hat you made your day buy you when you were a kid and jump on board? There will always be a seat for Michael F. Hurley on the Yankees train.

Hurley: I guess I could refer to the time to when I was the Albert Pujols to your Brad Lidge as “garbage,” but then I would be discrediting my own greatness. So I won’t do that. I’ll say you were a pretty good Wiffle Ball pitcher. Until you met me. Yeah, I might have thrown my arm out that day and my arm strength has never been the same, but at the same time I destroyed your career for several years, so it was worth it.

I won’t be a Yankees fan, but I will say, when my men’s league team needed a new name, I pushed for the Yankees. I kind of liked the idea of showing up to fields around Massachusetts in full pinstripes, just having everyone who sees us be disgusted and full of rage. Turns out I was the only one on the team who liked this idea. Oh well.

Go Red Sox!

Blogs • Email Exchanges • Yankees

Jun 29, 2015

Mike Scioscia Is in a Joe Torre Situation

The Yankees let another strong starting pitching performance get away from them in Houston and now they head to Anaheim where they always have trouble.

The Yankees let another strong starting pitching performance get away from them on Sunday in Houston to end up with a split against the first-place Astros. Now the Yankees head to the West Coast for the final time this season to Anaheim where they always have trouble.

With the Yankees and Angels meeting for the second and final time this season, Garrett Wilson of Monkey with a Halo joined me to talk about watching Mike Trout’s young MVP career and Albert Pujols trying to regain his former MVP abilities, the perception of Mike Scioscia in Anaheim and the Angels’ shaky starting rotation.

Keefe: I get sick of hearing about how the Yankees could have drafted New Jersey native Mike Trout if they hadn’t signed Mark Teixeira after the 2008 season, giving the Angels another first-round pick, which they used to draft Trout. It’s nice to think that Trout would have still been there for the Yankees to take, but even if they had, with the way the Yankees develop players, he would probably still be in the minors waiting to make his Major League debut,

The reigning AL MVP is at it again, hitting .300/.389/.575 with 19 home runs and 42 RBIs so far and making a case to be the AL MVP again. Trout is still just 23 and will be an Angel through at least 2020 and will possibly be a free agent at age 28.

How fun is it watching the best player in baseball every day and how relieving is it to know he will be an Angel for at least the next five seasons after this one?

Wilson: That’s funny because I’m tired of hearing it too, mostly because it is a lie. Trout would never have been there. The Angels had the No. 25 pick from the Yanks, but they also had the No. 24 pick. If they only had the No. 24, they would’ve picked Trout. They only selected him 25th for bonus negotiation purposes. But I digress …

It is immensely fun to watch Mike Trout play for your team. I highly recommend that every team go out and get a Mike Trout. It has been especially nice to have him this season because the roster is otherwise intensely painful to watch. Seriously, I can’t stand watching 84 percent of this roster right now, but Trout makes it worth tuning in every single night. Not only does he just consistently do amazing things, but, while he isn’t a fountain of personality, he clearly loves playing the game and that’s just fun to see in a player as good as he is. Not every superstar needs to be a brooding, over-competitive jerk or a carefully cultivated media persona, not that Yankees fans would have any idea what I am talking about with either of those examples.

Keefe: On the bad side of contracts, as of now, Albert Pujols will be an Angel longer than Trout, Pujols is signed through 2021 as part of his 10-year, $240 million deal, and he’s in just his fourth year of that deal.

No one expected Pujols to leave St. Louis and no one thought he would continue to be the player he was in his prime, but now that he’s been an Angel, what have you thought of his production and his renewed power this season? Were you a fan of the signing back before 2012?

Wilson: Seeing Pujols recapture at least part of his former self has been more of a relief than anything. When he signed that albatross contract, everyone knew it wasn’t going to be a good deal, but there was at least the notion that he had a few more MVP-level years left in him. That didn’t happen and it was very depressing. At least this tremendous few weeks from him has given us a glimpse of the Pujols the Angels thought they were getting. Still, even if he keeps it up all season, it isn’t going to do much to make his contract any less of a bad investment.

As for the signing at the time, I sort of half-approved of it. The money involved was always stupid, but I kind of believe Albert when he says that he’ll retire if his performance falls off a cliff before the contract is done. That might be a foolish belief though just because star athletes never admit their performance has deteriorated. Really though the reason I condoned it was because Arte Moreno really needed to show the world that the Angels could land a star free agent, especially after they colossally botched their pursuit of Carl Crawford and Adrian Beltre the year before. In hindsight, that seemed to backfire on the Angels because it emboldened Moreno to throw more big money after Josh Hamilton and we all know how well that turned out.

Keefe: For a long time, we heard about how Mike Scioscia seemed to be the best manager in the majors and how he had the Angels in contention year in and year out despite roster turnover. Well, after 2009, the Angel missed the playoffs for four years before returning to them last season and during that time, the Scioscia lovefest cooled considerably to the point that people believed his job was in question.

Scioscia has a $50 million deal that runs through 2018 and after last season’s performance, I have to believe that he is back in Angels’ fans good graces and has his job security back (if he ever even lost it).

Are you a Scioscia fan? Is he still the right man for the Angels, and did you ever want him fired?

Wilson: Angels fans are in a weird place with Scioscia. I think he has worn out his welcome with a lot of the fans, but those same fans admit that there isn’t any obvious managerial upgrade out there. I am mostly a proponent of Scioscia. He’s evolved a lot of his philosophies around roster optimization and in-game tactics, but he still falls back on some pretty idiotic habits now and again. All of that is overrated though. The thing that Scioscia has always done well and that nobody ever really sees is that he controls the clubhouse. Things, for the first time I can recall, did a get a bit rocky two years ago, but other than that, he’s kept that clubhouse harmonious and kept the team focused.

As for his job security, I actually think there might still be some question about it, though it comes more from his side of things. He has an opt-out in his contract after the year and I have an inkling that he might at least consider walking away if the Dodgers or Phillies come make some overtures. Not unlike with Joe Torre in New York, there just reaches a point where a club just needs a new voice. I’m not sure we’ve reached that point, but Scioscia might given how much he’s sublimated to the front office the last three years. Then again, the front office might not survive this season, so who knows.

Personally, I wouldn’t be upset if Scioscia moved on assuming he is replaced by a manager who is more in tune with general manager Jerry Dipoto’s more sabermetric philosophies. Right now, it feels like both guys are kind of bending over backwards to meet the other guy halfway and it just isn’t working out.

Keefe: On a team that has C.J. Wilson, Jered Weaver and Garrett Richards, it’s Hector Santiago who has the best numbers of the group. When it comes to playing the Angels, I used to fear them as a whole, but after what I saw in the three-game sweep earlier in June at Yankee Stadium, if you can hold the top of their lineup, their starting pitching is vulnerable and very beatable.

Are you worried about the Angels’ rotation?

Wilson: I’m not that worried about that rotation. Santiago has a great ERA right now, but he is wildly outperforming his peripherals. Wilson has actually been much better than his overall numbers, he has been mostly pretty good but has had a few horrible starts that have skewed his line. Richards is looking like an ace again and now that Heaney has been called up and Matt Shoemaker has seemingly fixed his mechanical issues, the only real concern is that Jered Weaver might be washed up.

I know that doesn’t sound like a very convincing case, but you asked if I was worried, not impressed. Make no mistake, this is not a dominant rotation, but it is good enough to give the Angels a chance at winning every night. Whether or not it would hold up in the postseason is an entirely different conversation.

Keefe: Last season, the Angels finished with a 98-64 record, which was the best in Major League Baseball and returned to the playoffs for the first time since 2009. However, once they got there, they were swept by the Royals in the ALDS.

Coming off a 98-win season, but in an improved AL West with the Astros and Rangers being competitive once again, what are your expectations for the Angels this season? Have they changed after watching the team play for nearly one half of the season?

Wilson: Perhaps it was just hubris, but coming into the season I was very confident the Angels would win the AL West with the worst-case scenario being a team that narrowly misses out on the wild card. Now, I am trying to figure out how they are only four games out of first place. Their lineup has cratered in a way that I didn’t think was possible. Trout and Pujols have been terrific and the fact that Johnny Giavotella is actually useful have been very nice, but nobody could’ve predicted that literally everyone else would have the worst offensive performance of their career to date. Freese, Aybar, Joyce, Iannetta and Calhoun have all been disappointing to varying degrees and there just isn’t much hope that they are going to be able to turn it around enough to return this offense to being the elite group it was last season. The only way to give me new hope in this team is if the Angels make a deal (probably two) to beef up the lineup.

Blogs • Email Exchanges • Yankees

Jun 22, 2015

Yankees-Phillies Puts Focus on Cole Hamels’ Future

The last time the Yankees and Phillies met in the regular season it meant something, but now it just means watching Cole Hamels audition.

The last time the Yankees played the Phillies was June 2010. Back then, it was a rematch of the 2009 World Series, the Phillies had added Roy Halladay to their starting rotation and CC Sabathia faced him in the first game of a three-game series at the Stadium. A lot has changed for both teams since they were on top of their respective leagues and the rivalry that was created in October 2009 has faded.

With the Yankees and Phillies meeting for the first time in five years, John Stolnis of The Good Phight joined me to talk about what’s happened to the Phillies in the last four years, how Ruben Amaro, Jr. still has a job and what the Phillies will do with Cole Hamels.

Keefe: In December 2010, the Phillies signed Cliff Lee, the Yankees didn’t and I was sure my 2011 baseball season was ruined. The Yankees and Phillies both went on to reach the playoffs and both had early exits in a year the Phillies were expected to win the World Series with their vaunted pitching staff. Since then, the Phillies have missed the playoffs the last three years and are on their way to being the worst team in the majors this season.

When you look back to October 2011, did you think not even four years later the Phillies would be in such a bad place?

Stolnis: Well, this email has started off well, reminding me of when my team died it’s slow, agonizing death and then asking me to painstakingly relive it so that I might reintroduce the trauma and night terrors it created. Sure, let’s chat about it!

No, I didn’t think things were going to be THIS bad, but I think after the 2012 season we all knew it was time for a change, that veteran players needed to be traded and that it was time to start a rebuilding process. But because they waited so long to do it, two years too long in my opinion, the rebuilding is beginning with very few Major League ready chips in place. And the veterans, Chase Utley especially, have degraded faster than I thought they would.

There are three good players on this team: Cole Hamels, Jonathan Papelbon and Maikel Franco. Maybe Ken Giles, too. So no, I didn’t see us becoming the laughingstock of baseball after the 2011 season, but it certainly did seem like the window was closing.

Keefe: That bad place has been a product of Ruben Amaro, Jr.’s general managerial skills, which have included bad contracts and an unwillingness to unload his tradable veterans. And on top of that Amaro called out the fans earlier this season, which I’m sure went over well in Philadelphia.

Does Amaro have any supporters left? How does he still have his job?

Stolnis: In terms of the general public, Ruben Amaro is about as popular as gang green. He made a lot of mistakes over the last few years, but to be honest, I think most of those mistakes were at the direction of former team president David Montgomery, who forced the team to hold off onto the rebuilding effort. I truly believe it was Monty who drove the Ryan Howard extension and the Chase Utley extension, although I do believe it was Amaro who made the Papelbon deal (which hasn’t been awful as it turns out, seeing as how he’s been so good), and other smaller, stupid deals (Michael Young, Delmon Young, Ty Wigginton, etc.).

I actually think Amaro and new team president Pat Gillick have done OK over the last year, but it may be too little too late. There’s not much confidence in Amaro, and when the team hires a new president to succeed Gillick (likely at the end of the season), I’m pretty sure he’s going to want to hire his own guy. So, I do believe the clock is ticking.

Keefe: Amaro had his chance to trade Cliff Lee several times and I’m sure the Yankees would have willingly traded for him after missing out on him in July 2010 and December 2010. Now Lee’s career could be over and all the Phillies got for him was the chance to continue to pay him an exorbitant amount of money to not pitch. The Phillies are faced with a similar situation this season with Cole Hamels and the never-ending trade rumors that surround him.

What will happen with Hamels? Are we looking at another missed opportunity for the Phillies to fix things?

Stolnis: Hamels is a completely different situation than Lee. First, he’s younger. Second, Hamels has no injury history whatsoever, and is extraordinarily cautious about his body when he feels something wrong. He informed team medical personnel right away last week when he felt the slightest twinge in his hamstring, which is incredibly smart. So while I do think the Phils should be actively looking to trade Hamels, it has to be for the right deal.

The national media seem to want Amaro to trade Hamels simply for the sake of trading him. But Amaro and the Phillies need to get the Cole trade right. They need at least on blue chip piece in return, and they shouldn’t move him until they get it. Even if Hamels hurts himself this year, he’s still under team control for three years, in order to try and get the trade done. Hamels is elite, and he shouldn’t be sold as something other than elite, just to meet some time frame the national media thinks is there.

Keefe: When it comes to homegrown players and players that helped you win and enjoy baseball for so many seasons, I never have a problem with overpaying for them and letting them wear out their welcome. The Yankees did it with Derek Jeter and Bernie Williams and Jorge Posada and I didn’t have an issue with it any time. There needs to be some form of loyalty and if it means letting guys, who won you multiple championships, hang around a little too long then so be it. The Phillies have done a similar thing with Howard and Utley.

Were you against the extensions for both or part of the group that remains loyal to the old guard for the good years when the Phillies were winning?

Stolnis: I wasn’t against Howard when it happened, but I quickly realized how wrong I was. I didn’t think the Utley extension was a good idea, I thought they should have traded him. That being said, I would have been more OK with it if the team had drafted better over the last decade, then the veteran deals wouldn’t have hurt so much.

But the Phils have gotten a negative WAR out of their-first round picks over the last 10 years, the only team in MLB to do that. You can keep those old guys around as long as there are young guys to supplement it. The Phils don’t have them (other than Franco right now), which makes the veteran deals look even worse.

Keefe: This year will be the fourth straight year with postseason baseball for the Phillies and really without a competitive team. They are seven years removed from their World Series win and six years removed from their World Series loss.

When can we expect the Phillies to return to being the team to beat in the NL East?

Stolnis: You’re already counting out the Phils from postseason baseball? That’s bulletin board material! YOU HEAR THAT BOYS, THEY THINK YOU SUCK! KILL ‘EM!

It’s going to be at least three to four years before the Phils are contenders for the division. The Mets have assembled a ridiculously talented pitching staff. The Nationals are going to be good for a while. The Marlins have Jose Fernandez and Giancarlo Stanton, and I think will be good next year. The Braves, well, they’ve got a rebuild going too.

The Phils have some good talent in the low minors, but it’s going to be a while. The good news is, once they get a couple young guys with promise up to the majors, they have the financial ability to spend, spend, spend, just like the Yankees. So, they just need a little infrastructure in place, but it’s probably going to be a couple more years before that happens.

Blogs • Email Exchanges • Yankees

Jun 9, 2015

Bryce Harper at His Hopeful Future Home in the Bronx

The Yankees haven’t lost in June with six straight wins and now it’s time for a two-game series with the Nationals and Bryce Harper’s first games at Yankee Stadium.

The Yankees haven’t lost in June with six straight wins and back-to-back sweeps over the Mariners and Angels. After struggling through the second half of May, the Yankees are still on top of the AL East heading into a two-game series with the NL East’s first-place Nationals. That means Bryce Harper is going to play at Yankee Stadium for the first time.

With the Yankees and Nationals meeting in the Bronx for their second of two short two-game series, Patrick Reddington of Federal Baseball joined me to talk about Max Scherzer’s incredible start to the season, Bryce Harper becoming the early favorite to win NL MVP and the concern about Stephen Strasburg’s future.

Keefe: The Yankees will face Max Scherzer on Tuesday night because the Yankees never seem to be able to dodge their opponent’s ace in any series. Whether it’s Scherzer or David Price or Matt Harvey or Sonny Gray or Felix Hernandez, the Yankees never seem to get any back end of a rotation.

Scherzer enters the game with a 1.85 ERA, allowing more than two earned runs in a start just twice in 11 starts this seasons, but somehow has lost four of his 11 starts because of a lack of run support.

Has Max Scherzer exceeded your expectations?

Reddington: We all knew Max Scherzer was going to be good, but he seems to have adjusted to the Nationals league fairly well thus far. What I didn’t expect, having not watched him as often as I probably should have while he was in the AL, was just how fiery a competitor he is on the mound. Not in a way that shows up opposing teams, but just really an ultra-competitive streak and an ability to maintain his stuff throughout his starts, hitting 95, 96 and 97 even late in his outings after sitting 92, 93 and 94 throughout the game.

But he’s in a three-way tie for highest fWAR so far this season (+2.8), the 1.85 ERA is fifth lowest in the majors so far, and that’s after he gave up four earned runs last time out. He has a .201 BAA. More importantly, and less noticeably, he’s also working with and helping the other pitchers on the staff, with Gio Gonzalez, among others talking about how he’s picked things up from Scherzer already this season. So, yeah, I’d say he’s exceeded expectations, which is even more impressive considering how high they were when he signed that $210 million deal.

Keefe: Part of that run support problem has been because no one other than Bryce Harper is having a good offensive season except for maybe Yunel Escobar, but even he doesn’t provide the usual power and production from their base. Aside from Harper, no one on the Nationals has more than seven home runs and Danny Espinosa is second in slugging percentage at second base.

Are you worried about the Nationals’ offense and what it will mean for their postseason chances and winning the NL East?

Reddington: Anthony Rendon just returned to the lineup. Jayson Werth started the season on the DL and was hurt not too long after returning from offseason surgery and struggled to produce while he was available. Ryan Zimmerman has transitioned to first base well, but the bat isn’t playing thus far this season. I wouldn’t say Harper is the only one who’s gotten it done, though no one is coming close to his production thus far.

Escobar is collecting a lot of hits, but doesn’t hit for power. Denard Span missed time at the start, but has been solid offensively since returning. Ian Desmond is having a hard time getting into a rhythm at the plate. I dare say not too many people would have predicted Danny Espinosa’s success thus far, to the point where there are hints he may see some time in the outfield to keep his bat in the lineup now that the infield is mostly healthy.

Though the production Werth was providing wasn’t up to his usual standards, Michael Taylor, Tyler Moore and Clint Robinson have been able to approximate what Werth was giving them as a group, though that’s still a little disappointing.

It’s another one of those “just wait until the lineup is healthy and see” seasons, where it’s hard to judge them with all the injuries and different lineups. I wouldn’t say it has me worried about their chances in the division, though there are some signs that the same problems which plagued them in October (aside from the fact that the Giants’ pitching just matched up well against the Nationals’ hitting) are still there and could be a problem.

Keefe: The last time I talked with Federal Baseball, I joked about Bryce Harper becoming a Yankee someday. Well, I actually wasn’t really joking since I do hope and plan on Harper becoming a Yankee when he is finally a free agent.

Harper has continued to rake this season and become the early-season NL MVP favorite hitting .326/.464/.706 with 19 home runs and 46 RBIs. He showed his power against the Yankees in the first inning of their four-run comeback against Nathan Eovaldi back on May 19.

So once again, how fun is it to see Harper becoming the best hitter in the game in what is looking like an MVP season?

Reddington: I wouldn’t go fitting Harper for pinstripes just yet. Though he’s a Scott Boras client and there’s the history of his clients going to free agency, there’s just as much anecdotal evidence right now that Harper likes the idea of spending an entire career with one team.

Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo, who scouted, drafted, and oversaw his development from a very young age, has talked often about the “special relationship” the two of them have and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Mike Stanton-esque contract discussed at some point in the future provided Harper can stay healthy and continue to do what he’s been doing this season, because right now he looks every bit like the sort of once-in-a-generation-type talent he was hyped up to be when he was growing up.

Keefe: Stephen Strasburg was off to a rocky start the last time the Nationals played the Yankees three weeks ago, and that rocky start continued for his next three starts and now he’s on the 15-day disabled list with a neck issue.

Is this a you’re-not-pitching-well-so-we’re-putting-you-on-the-DL DL stint or is he really hurt? Are you worried about the future of Strasburg?

Reddington: It’s hard not to be worried about Stephen Strasburg. He’s 26, he’s already undergone Tommy John surgery, he’s struggled mightily this season and as far as the Nationals are saying, his mechanics are completely out of whack and he’s causing himself back issues with mechanics he altered because of an ankle injury he suffered this season. They’ve been very clear that they don’t see any signs of a problem in his shoulder or elbow, which is good news, but they’ve also been unable, two-plus months in to get him straightened out and back to what everyone, including Strasburg knows he’s capable of doing.

He’s frustrated, he was hurting the team with short outings before the DL stint and the issues have seeming moved around his back over the last few starts, so they really have to get him sorted out and make sure he’s 100 percent before they even consider bringing him back. I don’t think it’s a create-a-DL stint “injury”, but I do think it’s a good chance for him to get straightened out without having to try to do it against major league hitters in games that count, but he’s a huge part of this rotation and they need “Stephen Strasburg” back, not the pitcher they’ve had thus far this season.

Keefe: Three weeks ago, the Nationals were red hot, and you seemed to not be worried at all about their chances of winning the NL East. The Nationals are only a 1/2 game back of the Mets with one game in hand on them, but the Braves, despite being under .500 are only 3 1/2 games back in the division.

Every team has their question marks and with the Nationals’ offense struggling and their rotation not being what it was projected to be, are you still confident in the Nationals winning the East?

Reddington: I am confident that the Nationals’ talent will ultimately win out in the division, and that’s taking nothing away from the Mets, who are doing it without their franchise third baseman and the Braves, who completely reassembled to the roster around their young talent and are impressing me thus far this season with what they’ve been able to accomplish. That being said, which is a rhetorical device for wiping away that praise, I still think the Nationals are a better team than either of those two clubs.

After the Nationals dropped three of four to the Cubs this past weekend, Matt Williams said he wasn’t worried, noting that they struggled in April, turned it on in May and are back to struggling again. “Ebbs and flows” etc. But I don’t think it’s just manager speak. I think they have to get as healthy as possible and get Strasburg and Doug Fister back in the rotation before we can really judge just what the team is this season.

Blogs • Email Exchanges • Yankees

May 28, 2015

The Yankees Are Getting the A’s at the Right Time

The Yankees are headed to the West Coast for a seven-game road trip and it starts with a four-game series in Oakland where the A’s are in last place.

The last six games are a good indication of the 2015 Yankees as they were swept at home by the Rangers and then swept what might be the best team in baseball in the Royals the following three days. After being nine games over .500 and erasing that in two weeks, the Yankees appear to be back on track and are headed to Oakland at the best possible time.

With the Yankees and A’s meeting for the first time this season, Alex Hall of Athletics Nation joined me to talk about what happened down the stretch to the A’s last year, the trades for Jon Lester and Jeff Samardzija and what’s gone wrong for the A’s to start this season.

Keefe: Last year in our email exchange, I asked you this:

When it comes to the A’s, what are the year-end expectations, especially after the team’s resurgence the last few years? Is just making the postseason enough for you, or are you tired of “just” making the postseason?

You answered with this:

This team is built to win right now and has actually mortgaged a little bit of its future to do so, and a failure to bring home a title, much less a league pennant, would be severely disappointing.

The A’s ended up blowing their AL West lead, settled for the second wild-card spot and then blew a late lead in that game to the Royals. Along the way there, they crushed the trade deadline and sacrificed potential future stars for Jon Lester and Jeff Samardzija, and neither of them are on the A’s this year. (We’ll get to that in a little.)

How disappointing was the finish to the 2014 season?

Hall: It was almost a worst-case scenario. The new pitchers helped a lot and the A’s probably wouldn’t even have made it to the wild-card game at all without them, but the rest of the team just fell apart. With the exceptions of Josh Donaldson, Josh Reddick, and Eric Sogard, the entire lineup either got hurt and stopped hitting or got hurt and just went on the DL. Meanwhile, the starting pitching was always just good enough to not win and the bullpen continued to be lights-out right up until it was time to seal a save. Everything that could go wrong did.

The wild-card game was much the same — two A’s left with injuries, including the catcher who was there specifically to halt the Royals’ running game, and they ended up losing one of the most heartbreaking games in MLB history despite scoring seven runs. The only way it would have been worse would have been finishing one game lower in the standings and missing the wild-card game completely — even a heartbreaking loss is better than not making it at all.

Keefe: I was ecstatic when the A’s traded for Jon Lester and took Boston’s homegrown ace in the middle of another last-place season for the Red Sox. Red Sox fans stupidly thought they would just end up re-signing Lester in the offseason and that it was just more of a loan to Oakland and that in 2015 they would have Lester back and have Yoenis Cespedes in the lineup, but they don’t have either player now.

That trade seemed to change the A’s offense down the stretch of the season and they were never really the same team after it. Cespedes had been a middle-of-the-order presence and had helped them climb to first place and distance themselves from the rest of the division, and was maybe a bigger part of the A’s than Billy Beane had thought.

Were you on board with that trade at the time? Do you think it destroyed the offense?

Hall: I will say that I wasn’t into the idea of trading for Lester before it happened. I wanted to roll the dice with the guys who had brought us to the top of the MLB standings. And there wasn’t a single person in Oakland who didn’t get sick when they woke up to hear that Cespedes was gone — he was massively popular here, as he will be wherever he plays. However, from a statistical standpoint, it did make logical sense to deal from an area of strength (offense) to beef up a weakness (thin rotation).

Even though I would not have made the trade, and even though I would undo it if I could go back in time, I still just don’t think it made any difference in the end. Losing Cespedes is not what destroyed the offense. That was accomplished when Brandon Moss’ hip turned to mush, when John Jaso got concussed, when Jed Lowrie missed time, when Stephen Vogt’s foot injury sapped his hitting, when Derek Norris wore down, when Coco Crisp’s neck injury knocked him in and out of the order, when Alberto Callaspo was an everyday player and even a DH, when Jonny Gomes failed to hit even one homer, when Craig Gentry got concussed, and when Adam Dunn OPS’ed .634 as an emergency replacement. The lineup was a juggernaut in the first half, and losing one guy did not destroy it — especially considering that, by the numbers, Cespedes was only the third-best hitter on the team after Donaldson and Moss. Losing him was one part of a larger puzzle, and it certainly didn’t help the offense when he left, but it took a lot more than that one loss to completely tank the entire unit.

Keefe: The A’s also traded for Jeff Samardzija last summer and had to give up Addison Russell to get him, who now looks to be the future of the middle infield for the Cubs. Then this past offseason, the A’s traded Samardzija to the White Sox to replenish their roster and try to salvage what was the lost in the trade for Cubs knowing that they wouldn’t pay Samardzija at the end of this season anyway.

Are you devastated that Russell was dealt last season knowing his potential?

Hall: It’s tough to see him begin to blossom so quickly in Chicago, but I’ve come to peace with that trade. I am 100 percent certain that the A’s season would have been even more disappointing if they hadn’t acquired a pitcher, and at the time it looked like the early bird might be the only one to get a worm. Plus, getting your guy in early July means you get an extra month of production out of your rental. It’s easy to look back now and say that Billy Beane should have waited longer for the market to develop, and I’ll admit that before the trade I was not interested in Shark nor Hammel, but it’s also true that Shark pitched like a legitimate ace in Oakland and so at least Beane got his money’s worth in that sense. He got what he was looking for in the trade, it just wasn’t enough.

On the other side, Shark was turned into four players from the White Sox. None of them are as good as Russell could be, but at least there is something left to show for him. If he builds on this promising start and becomes an All-Star then that will be a big bummer for A’s fans, but that’s the price of business if you want to take a big-time gamble for the big prize.

Keefe: Sorry to make you feel bad and harp on the end of the 2014 season (feel free to ask me about the 2013 and 2014 Yankees), but let’s talk about this year A’s team, which has gotten off to a horrific start, is 15 games under .500 and 13 1/2 games back in the West.

What has happened to the A’s team that was at times the best team in baseball over the last three years? Is there anything to feel good about right now other than Sonny Gray?

Hall; This has been a frustrating year to watch because the A’s have been playing pretty well but don’t have the wins to show for it. The rotation is among the best in baseball, and the lineup has been solid despite losing Coco and missing Ben Zobrist for a month. But the defense has been horrendous and the bullpen has been even worse, and every day they come oh-so-close to winning and then fall short in a new and amazing way.

The A’s are 2-15 in one-run games, and that kind of futility goes beyond a lack of skill or “clutch”-ness and into the realm of rotten luck. If the starting pitcher is good, then the lineup gets shut out. If the lineup scores, then the defense makes a major error. If the defense holds up, then the bullpen blows it with a big homer. It feels like flipping a coin and getting tails every time, and knowing that one of these days it’ll come up heads … but will it be tomorrow, next week, or next year?

Keefe: The A’s won the West in 2012 and 2013 and reached the playoffs as a wild-card team last year. It was the first time the team had made the playoffs in three straight seasons since they went to the playoffs in four straight from 2000-2003.

It seems like the window of opportunity for the A’s it always is so small and right when they are about to get over the hump, it closes and then it’s rebuilding mode again. After 94-, 96- and 88-win seasons over the last three years and now a 17-32 start, it looks like it’s rebuilding mode again.

What were your expectations for the A’s this season coming off three straight postseason appearances and what are they now after nearly two months of baseball?

Hall: The A’s looked like they were aiming for the playoffs again, but their sights weren’t set as hard on that goal as in the last couple years. They were willing to make a couple of win-now moves, but only after selling high on a lot of big names. This was a team with solid-but-not-huge playoff dreams, and while it’s shocking to see them lose this much it’s not like anyone was guaranteeing a postseason berth.

The A’s are still loaded with a lot of good players, and I’ve seen a lot of unlikely runs both from Oakland and from other teams in the last 15 years. I haven’t given up on the season, but I do realize that the chances of a comeback are slim and shrinking by the day. Realistically, the rest of this season should be seen as an audition for young players like Jesse Hahn, Kendall Graveman, Billy Burns, and Marcus Semien. On the other hand, big performances from those players would also be the path to the postseason, so one way or other my expectations are just to hope for the best from everyone and see what happens. Sonny Gray is pitching like he has Cy Young aspirations, so that will be something to watch regardless of the team’s record.

Oakland has a few pending free agents, so if they don’t turn things around more or less immediately then they could be sellers. But Zobrist already missed a month, Scott Kazmir just left his last start with shoulder soreness, and Tyler Clippard hasn’t had a chance to rack up many saves — it’s tough to say if the A’s could even get any good deals for those guys, or if they should hold onto them, hand out qualifying offers and see if they can retain any of them on one-year deals (or get draft picks as compensation).