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Yankees Thoughts: Good, But Not Good Enough Against Orioles

After a miserable weekend against the Blue Jays, the Yankees got just what they needed: three games against the Orioles.

After a miserable weekend against the Blue Jays, the Yankees got just what they needed: three games against the Orioles. The Yankees beat up on the Orioles the way they always do, winning two laughers (7-0 and 7-2), but they weren’t able to pull off the sweep as they left nearly every baserunner they had on base in the series finale.

Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.

1. Aaron Judge is hurt. It took five games, and not even five full games for Judge to get hurt. So much for that new offseason workout regimen Eric Cressey implemented. So much for the yoga routine. Four games in right field and one as the designated hitter and Judge is already hurt and has already missed one game due to a potential injury.

On Wednesday, Aaron Boone described Judge as being “sore” on Tuesday. “With the off day tomorrow I don’t want to take any chances,” Boone said.

How does Boone know Judge is sore? Because Judge must have told him. Judge acts like he wants to play no matter what and will play thorugh anything, yet every time he is “sore” or banged up, the manager knows about it. I find that odd for someone who claims to want to be in the lineup every game.

Judge has a history of oblique injuries, which ended his 2016 season early and took two months of his 2019 season. When asked if it is his oblique again, Boone said it’s “general soreness in his side.” Is that not the definiton of an oblique injury? Now we wait. We wait and find out if it’s more than Boone and the Yankees have led on, which it almost always is. It wouldn’t surpise me if it is more and Judge is placed on the injured list or out for an extended period of time since that’s what I have been trained to think over the last few sesaons.

I don’t want Judge to be hurt, but it’s a good thing he is because ifhe was just being given a scheduled day off on Wednesday, I might have been forced to start to root against the Yankees. After giving Giancarlo Stanton the day off on Sunday and Aaron Hicks the day off on Tuesday, when I didn’t see Judge in Wednesday’s lineup, I freaked out. Judge had gone 5-for-8 with two home runs and five RBIs in the first two games of the series, and it would have been irresponsible and unacceptable to give him the day off. If he’s not truly injured or IL-bound and is just “sore” then it’s still pretty ridiculous he didn’t play. You would think Judge would play through anything these days after having missed 138 of a possible 390 games since 2018 and with his free agency looming after 2022. But nope, he’s the same old injury-prone guy. No offseason workout changes or training or medical staff hires can change that.

2. Boone’s early-season catching plans have worked to perfection for him. He had Gary Sanchez catch Gerrit Cole on Opening Day to hide the Cole-Sanchez relationship storyline to begin the season. Then he let Kyle Higashioka catch Cole’s second start, citing it as just a normal day off for Sanchez. But of all the games to give Sanchez a day off, Sanchez got the day off when Cole was starting, and what do you know, having that day off lines up Sanchez to have this coming Sunday afternoon off in Tampa as well. And guess who’s pitching this Sunday afternoon in Tampa, why none other than Cole. What a coincidence! Boone is going to have Higashioka catch Cole as much as possible, and he will cite games like Tuesday when Cole threw seven shutout innings as the reason why. Even though Higashioka’s start and those seven shutout innings came against the Orioles, who could lose 100 games again, and Sanchez’s came against the Blue Jays, who could win the AL East. This storyline isn’t going anywhere. Boone created a monster last season and he continues to feed it.

3. It’s bad enough Aaron Hicks bats third for the Yankees, but it was appalling when Brett Gardner batted third in the fifth game of the season. When Hicks returned the following night, Gardner was moved down to ninth. So Gardner is going to bath ninth when he plays, unless Hicks isn’t playing and then he’s going to bat third? How does that make any sense? It doesn’t. It’s just another nonsensical decision by Boone. There’s no rule stating a left-handed hitter has to bat third. There’s no rule stating one of the team’s weakest hitters has to bat third. It’s just what Boone chooses to do.

Here is a list of some No. 3 hitters in the majors. One of these names is not like the others. Can you figure out which one it is?

Mike Trout
Bryce Harper
Juan Soto
Christian Yelich
Manny Machado
Freddie Freeman
Jose Abreu
Nolan Arenado
Aaron Hicks

4. Hicks batting third (or Gardner batting third on Tuesday) isn’t an organizational decision. It’s a Boone decision. Here’s what Brian Cashman said at his end-of-the-season press conference this past October:

In terms of the lineup and in-game strategies, those are the manager’s. It always has been and as long as I’m the general manager, it never will be different.”

Boone makes the lineup. Boone makes the calls to the bullpen. Boone gives the scheduled days off. It’s all Boone. There’s the idea Boone is a puppet and every move is made by Cashman and his team, but Cashman denied that at the same press conference this past October, saying:

“I know there’s that narrative about the manager being a puppet and none of that’s true. I’ve never ordered a manager to do anything specifically and Aaron would be able to testify to that as well as Joe Girardi and Joe Torre. They’ve never been directed at any time by me or our front office to do something they didn’t want to do.”

Cashman also said:

“Does he push back? The answer is yes. Not every manager has agreed with suggestions made, but every manager was allowed to plot their own course. I think there is a healthy debate that transpires and an all-in commitment once that decision is ultimately made.”

Maybe it’s time you stop letting him push back. There are thousands of people who can manage the Yankees and manage them as poorly as Boone. If Cashman wants his staff to tell Boone what to do, what is Boone going to do? Threaten to quit? Oh no! What would the Yankees ever do?!

The unnecessary rest only goes for position players though. On Wednesday, Chad Green entered the game in the 10th inning and was removed in the 11th inning. Green has already appeared in four of the Yankees’ six games this season and in three of his four appearances, he has been asked to pitch more than an inning. Good long-term plan by the manager who is supposedly so great at load management and keeping his guys fresh. Everyone except the elite bullpen arms the team will need to win the division and win in October.

5. Gleyber Torres’ defense is a problem. A huge problem. There shouldn’t be a sense of relief when a major league shortstop successfully converts a routine ground ball into an out, but that’s what it’s become with Torres at short. Forget making a difficult play, Torres can’t simply field ground balls hit right at him and throw accurately to first base. His defense was a significant problem for the Yankees last season, but the Yankees attributed it to the unique and odd circumstances of 2020. Well, nothing has changed for Torres. His inability to throw the baseball in the air to first base cost the Yankees the game on Wednesday night. Yes, the Yankees only scored two runs despite having 12 hits and two walks, but it was Torres’ 10th-inning error that allowed the go-ahead run to score. Any ball that is hit at him I assume is going to an end in either a fielding or throwing error. That can’t go on. Either he needs to immediately get better or a drastic change needs to be made.

It’s possible the Yankees could eventually change their defensive alignment. They gave Gio Urshela time at shortstop in spring training, and while he has barely played there in his career, Torres plays as though he has barely played there. There’s no chance Urshela is worse at shortstop than Torres is. It’s hard to envision any everyday major league shortstop being worse. Put Urshela at short, Torres back at second, where he had two unbelievable seasons in 2018 and 2019, move DJ LeMahieu over to third and pray Luke Voit comes back soon, so the Jay Bruce experiment can end.

6. Jordan Montgomery was great in his season debut: 6 IP, 4 H 0, R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 7K. I was waiting for the crooked number to ruin his night at some point since that’s the way Montgomery’s starts seem to go. Four or five scoreless innings sandwiched around a three-run inning is usually the story with Montgomery. That never happened on Monday, and he shut out the Orioles for six innings, giving the bullpen a much-needed rest in the Yankees’ first easy win of the season. Through one turn in the rotation, Montgomery has been the Yankees at worst the Yankees’ second-best starter.

7. Jameson Taillon was good in his first star in 707 days following his second Tommy John surgery. Good, not great. If you heard Michael Kay and David Cone describe his performance on his way to the dugout, you would have thought he was getting pulled in the ninth inning, an out or two away from a complete-game shutout. Kay said, “Taillon gave the Yankees all they could have asked for.” All they could ask for? What?

Here’s Taillon’s line from his Yankees debut: 4.2 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 7 K, 2 HR. I know the Yankees are trying to protect him and avoid using him like the family dining room, which only gets used on holidays and when company is over, but at some point they’re going to have to let him pitch and not fear him get injured.

The same goes for Corey Kluber. The Yankees can’t afford to have two of their five starters only going four and five innings at most each start, or the bullpen will get overused and overworked, and come October, it will be rundown and fatigued.

9. The Yankees needed to see the Orioles this week. After the awful season-opening weekend against the Blue Jays, the Yankees needed some easy wins and to start looking and playing like the Yankees. The Orioles will do that for you. The division is likely going to be won by whichever team beats up on the Orioles and Red Sox the most.

10. Now the Yankees are headed to Tampa on Friday for three games against the Rays — a team the Yankees have had enormous trouble beating in recent years — at the Trop — a place the Yankees never seem to win. I’m sure it’s going to be an intense, frustration-filled weekend in which my heart rate and blood pressure will both hit dangerous levels during the seventh, eighth and ninth games of a 162-game season. But these games are that important to the Yankees winning the division and avoiding the one-game playoff. After attending and sitting through three of those in 2015, 2017 and 2018, I never want to have to sit through one again.


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Yankees Thoughts: Same Exercise, Same Results in 2021

The Yankees dropped two of three to the Blue Jays and they looked bad doing so. The same fears of Yankees fans that eliminated the team in the last four postseasons were on display all weekend.

The Yankees dropped two out of three to the Blue Jays to open the 2021 season and they looked bad doing so. The same fears of Yankees fans that eliminated the team in the last four postseasons were on display all weekend at Yankee Stadium.

Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.

1. The last time we saw the Yankees play in October, they couldn’t hit elite starting pitching, couldn’t hit right-handed relief pitching and couldn’t drive in runners in scoring position, and so their season ended in the ALDS against the Rays. Well, the first three games of 2021 might as well have been a sixth, seventh and eighth game from that series because the Yankees performed like the same exact team, which wasn’t good enough to get out of the first round of the postseason. And why wouldn’t they? They are the same exact team with the same exact manager. Why would they expect different results. They shouldn’t.

2. Aaron Boone passed his first test of the season when he started Gary Sanchez on Opening Day and allowed him to catch Gerrit Cole. Sanchez was the Yankees’ best player on Opening Day, providing the only offense with a a two-run home, and also adding a single, important walk and threw out a would-be base stealer. Sanchez and Clint Frazier were the only two position players to do anything on Opening Day, and pretty much all weekend. The Yankees scored eight runs in three games against their direct competition for the division and Sanchez’s two home runs, the only two Yankees home runs this season, produced half of the team’s runs. It was a very bad weekend for fans who don’t like Sanchez, didn’t want the Yankees to tender him a contract for 2021 (as if that were ever an option) and want Kyle Higashioka to be the team’s starting catcher.

3. Boone passed his first test by starting Sanchez, but I knew his second test would come on Sunday, and I knew he wouln’t pass it. It would be the Yankees’ first time playing back-to-back games in 2021, and with five games in five days he would undoubtedly look to give regular everyday players a day off. Sure enough, there was Aaron Judge at designated hitter on Sunday, Clint Frazier in right field, Brett Gardner in left field and Giancarlo Stanton on the bench. Stanton entered Sunday having played 50 games in 24 months, an average of about two games per month over the last two calendar years. He played all 50 of those games as the DH. As a Yankee, Stanton has always gotten hurt running the bases. Well, he barely ran the bases on Thursday and Saturday. On Thursday, he went 0-for-5 with three strikeouts, so three times he walked from the dugout to the batter’s box, took a few swings and walked back to the dugout, never needing to run. On Saturday, he walked with two outs and never left first base, flew out, popped out, walked and eventually scored from second on a single and flew out. So in two games, Stanton had to run once, though he somehow needed a day off from being the DH.

4. Weeks ago, Boone said Aaron Hicks would be the No. 3 hitter. That doesn’t make it any better or make it OK. Hicks shouldn’t be batting third. I don’t care about some arbitrary timeline of stats for him. There’s no way with the other hitters on this team he should be batting third. There’s this idea he should lead off, and that’s even funnier than thinking Higashioka should play over Sanchez. (Why would the Yankees want to start every game with only two outs to work with in the first inning?) Hicks had an impressive weekend at the plate, going 1-for-12 with two walks and eight strikeouts. (He did drive in a run when he hit a ball to second base with the bases loaded and one out, trying his absolute best to end the inning with a double play, but the Blue Jays were unable to turn it.) Hicks was as bad as anyone could imaginably be in a three-game span, and his inability to make contact was magnified by the fact that he bats third, which he does because Boone is still trying to prove he’s the smartest baseball mind, even though his 2020 ALDS Game 2 strategy has forever taken him out of that conversation. There will be a time this season when Yankees fans say, “Remember when Hicks was batting third and Gio Urshela was batting sixth?” The same way Aaron Judge started 2017 batting eighth and remained there for most of his should-have-been MVP season and the same way DJ LeMahieu wasn’t even in the Opening Day starting lineup in 2019. Urshla was bad enough in the first two games of 2021 that Boone moved him down for the third game, so it looks like Urshela is on his way to permanently batting where he should: eighth or ninth. As for Hicks, his time to get moved down will come. For as bad as Hicks was this weekend, Aaron Judge was right there with him. Judge single-handedly lost Opening Day and finished the weekend going 3-for-14, leaving 11 runners on base. Judge’s free pass has an expiration date and it’s this season. He has been able to go about his business without criticism for the last three seasons because of what he did in 2017, but that was a long time ago now, and the last and only time he has played a full season.

5. Jay Bruce provided 25 percent of the Yankees’ offense in the series, blooping in a bases-loaded, two-run single on Saturday. If Luke Voit doesn’t hurt his knee at the end of spring training, Bruce isn’t a Yankee right now, which means the Yankees deemed him not as good or as valuable as Mike Tauchman or Tyler Wade. That didn’t stop Boone from batting Bruce fifth on Sunday. Yes, fifth. I thought Bruce might bat around fifth on Opening Day because of his past success against Hyun Jin Ryu (4-for-11 with two home runs), but he batted eighth on Opening Day. Boone waited to move him up until Sunday. He must have been impressed by that two-run bloop single.

6. Like Sanchez, Frazier is the one other position player Yankee you could say had a good weekend. Frazier went 4-for-9 with two doubles and two walks, and it’s not unrealistic to think by the end of the season he could be the Yankees’ best hitter. So there he was batting ninth on Opening Day, three spots behind Urshela and one spot behind Bruce. Yes, he would be the best 9-hitter in the league, however, he has no business batting in that spot. I know someone who would be great in that spot, and he plays center field for the Yankees.

7. In the three games, the Yankees faced right-handed relievers for 42 percent of the series. Here’s the line: 11.2 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 10 BB, 16 K, 2.31 ERA. Two of the runs came after the Yankees were able to load the bases with walks. The Yankees didn’t have trouble getting on base with 16 baserunners in those 11 2/3 innings, but like always, they had trouble getting those runners in. Making contact is the thing these Yankees are the worst at. And no one should preface anything about this weekend with “It’s three games” or “It’s April” because it’s not just three games and it’s not just April. The things we saw from the Yankees this weekend are what has eliminated them from the postseason the last four seasons, and that includes bad starting pitching.

8. It would be cool if Gerrit Cole started pitching like he did as an Astro. That would be fun. Because having to leave in the fifth and sixth inning of starts due to an elevated pitch count isn’t going to work out well when the rest of the rotation is expected to go five innings at most. Cole went 5 1/3 innings on Thursday, Corey Kluber went four innings on Saturday and Scumbag Domingo German went three innings on Sunday. The starters gave the Yankees 12 1/3 of 28 innings against the Blue Jays. The Yankees are already down Zack Britton and Justin Wilson. If the starters continue to do what they did this weekend, the Yankees will be down more than just those two, or worse, Chad Green and Darren O’Day won’t get hurt, they will just get fatigued and ineffective and continued to be used.

9. How about Scumbag German? You would think the Yankees dealt with someone like him because of his elite talent. Instead they kept a scumbag through suspension and public and internal backlash and that scumbag is barely a fifth starter. German lasted three innings in his first start since 2019 and allowed three earned runs and two home runs in those three innings, needing 68 pitches to get nine out. What a loser. To make matters worse, Boone made excuses for his performance in his postgame press conference, and even went as far to say “he looked sharp” early in the game. There wasn’t really an early for German since he was gone before the fourth, but in the first inning he did only allow on extra-base hit, so hats off to him!

10. Boone used the word “cold” several times to talk about his team after losing the series on Sunday. They weren’t cold. This is who they are. I’m sure they will beat up on the Orioles over the next three days (at least they better) because that’s what they do. Beat up on the league’s worst for six months (Baltimore, Boston, Kansas City, Texas), struggle with the few good teams the play (Toronto, Tampa Bay, Houston, Oakland, White Sox) and then get to the playoffs and fold against elite pitching. I thought bringing the same team back in 2021 was a mistake. Cashman gave up on Sonny Gray after 2018, saying, “I don’t feel like we can go through the same exercise and expect different results,” and yet, the Yankees are going through the same exercise in 2021 as they did in 2020, and most of the team was here in 2019 and 2018 as well. So far, the results haven’t been different.


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Yankees’ Championship Window Won’t Be Open Forever for Current Core

This October will be 12 years since the Yankees last won the World Series. Every season with this group which doesn’t end with a championship is a missed opportunity and they have already missed too many.

No one expected the 2016 Yankees to be any good. And they weren’t. 

They got off to a 9-17 start, and it was obvious they had to tear apart the team and play prospects, and by this time every fan wanted them to do just that. Free agency had been the Yankees’ strategy since the early 2000s and a way for the team to plug holes on their sinking ship. It worked at times as they were able to tread water, have winning seasons and reach the playoffs, but over the previous 15 years, they had won one championship. Eventually you need to start over. Eventually you need a new boat. The game had changed too much and the Yankees needed a new boat and Yankees fans wanted a new boat.

At the end of play on July 6, 2016, the Yankees were 41-43 and it looked like they would certainly be sellers at the deadline in three weeks, but ownership wasn’t on board. The Yankees then went on an 11-5 run through July 26, and were now in striking distance of a wild-card spot — only four games back — and ownership hadn’t budged on selling and giving up on the season for future seasons.

The Yankees then lost their next four games, one in Houston and a three-game sweep in Tampa Bay. It was the best thing to happen to the organization since the Astros, Indians, Expos, Orioles and Reds passed on Derek Jeter in the 1992 draft, allowing the Yankees to select him with the sixth overall pick. The losing streak pushed the Yankees out of reasonable contention, ownership gave Brian Cashman the green light to trade his veteran assets and begin the transition into “rebuilding mode.”

Andrew Miller (Indians), Aroldis Chapman (Cubs), Carlos Beltran (Rangers) and Ivan Nova (Pirates) were all traded, and Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira announced their retirements. Gary Sanchez and Aaron Judge were called up to become everyday players, and in the process, Brian McCann was relegated to backup duty, which would lead to his offseason trade to the Astros. The Yankees had finally decided to show off the depth in their farm system, and thanks to that four-game losing streak at the end of July, the depth only got deeper with the top prospects they received in return.

The 2017 Yankees weren’t supposed to be good either, picked by many to finish near or at the bottom of the AL East in what was certainly going to be a rebuilding season. But there ended up being no “rebuilding.” The Yankees seemingly hit on every prospect who reached the majors and the team went from preseason dud to postseason bound, winning 91 games and putting up a plus-198 run differential.

The 2017 Yankees overcame a 3-0 first-inning deficit in the wild-card game. They overcame an 0-2 series hole to the 102-win Indians to advance to the ALCS. They overcame another 0-2 series hole to the Astros to bring a 3-2 series lead to Houston for Games 6 and 7. Ultimately, they came one win shy of reaching the World Series for the first time in eight years.

For 2018, the Yankees essentially replaced Chase Headley, Starlin Castro and Jacoby Ellsbury with Giancarlo Stanton (the reigning NL MVP), Miguel Andujar, Gleyber Torres and the Aaron Hicks who was drafted in the first round. But once again, they came up short in the postseason.

The 2017 postseason loss wasn’t crushing. Rather it was an exhilarating ride, being back at a raucous Stadium seemingly every night in October and watching a young, homegrown core get within a game of the World Series. The 2018 postseason loss, on the other hand, was crushing. After once again winning the wild-card game, and taking a game in Boston, the Yankees became the favorite in what had become a best-of-3 with two games at the Stadium where they didn’t lose. Not only did they lose both, they were embarrassed in every facet of the game, especially managing, and their rival celebrated on their field en route to a championship season.

Because of the way the season ended and the team it ended against, 2018 is viewed as a disaster, and rightfully so. But if you go back to 2016, 2017 and 2018 were never supposed to be about the Yankees. They were supposed to be about the Indians and Astros and Red Sox and Cubs and Dodgers, and they were. The timeline Yankees fans were given and expected prior to Opening Day 2016 was always 2019, these Yankees just happened to arrive early. The 2017 and 2018 Yankees gave us two unexpected years of championship contention even if it didn’t end with a championship.

Going back five years, 2019 was always circled as the first season the Yankees would truly contend for a championship, and they did. But in what has become a decade-long trend, the team fell short with inconsistent starting pitching in October coupled with an inability to get a timely hit. Two years after losing to the Astros in the ALCS in seven games, the Yankees lost to them again, this time in six games, losing four of the final five games of the series for the franchise’s fourth ALCS in 10 years. Ultimately, the first season of the Yankees’ championship window came and went without a championship.

The 2020 season was to be the Yankees’ best chance at ending their championship drought, but things started to unravel in spring training with Luis Severino going down for the season, James Paxton needing a back procedure, and the entire starting outfield of Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Hicks expected to miss as much as the first half of the season. The shutdown in mid-March allowed for Paxton, Judge, Stanton and Hicks to heal, but it turned a 162-game season in which the Yankees’ depth would separate them from the rest of the division and likely league into a 60-game season mess. A second straight injury-filled season led to a mediocre 60-game performance from the Yankees, and in the postseason, the bats once against disappeared and Aaron Boone did all he could to eliminate his team in five games against the Rays.

The night the Yankees lost Game 7 of the 2017 ALCS I wasn’t upset. The series loss and losing both chances to advance to the World Series was disappointing, but the future of the team was so bright and so promising that losing to the eventual champions in seven games in a season in which the Yankees weren’t supposed to even be part of the postseason race didn’t hurt the way many other postseason eliminations have. Then again, I didn’t think the Yankees would be here having played three seasons with nothing to show for it other than embarrassment (2018), frustration (2019) and humiliation (2020).

The grace period with these Yankees ended after 2018. The 2021 season is now the current core’s third season in their “window of opportunity” to win a championship, and the window has closed much faster than expected. The injuries (Judge, Severino, Stanton, Hicks) and underperformance (Sanchez, Torres) over the last two seasons have led to unfulfilling seasons and with the Blue Jays and Rays one tier below the Yankees in the AL East and the Red Sox and Orioles rebuilding, the division isn’t going to be so heavily tilted in the Yankees’ favor for much longer.

There’s no more consolation prize for coming within a game of the World Series or winning 100 games and then getting blown out by your storied rival or losing in five games in the first round. There’s no more excuses and no more “next year”. These Yankees were expected to truly contend in 2019 and it’s now 2021.

The championship grace period is over. It’s long over. This October will be 12 years since the Yankees last reached the World Series and last won it. Every season with this group which doesn’t end with a championship is a missed opportunity and they have already missed too many.


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‘Twas the Night Before Yankees Opening Day 2021

‘Twas the night before Yankees Opening Day, when all through the city …

‘Twas the night before Yankees Opening Day, when all through the city
Yankees fans were praying the season wouldn’t end shitty;
The Dugout and Billy’s were stocked full of liquor and beer;
Knowing in a few hours fans would be pregaming there for the first time in more than a year;

Giancarlo Stanton nestled all snug in his bed,
Telling himself he wouldn’t let having fans back at the Stadium get in his head;
Corey Kluber and Jameson Taillon tried to get some sleep with all the hype,
As tomorrow will be the first time they officially wear the Yankees pinstripes.

When suddenly on Twitter there arose a bunch of chatter,
The entire Tri-state area sprang to the Internet to see what was the matter.
Away to the computer I flew like a flash,
Tripped over my kid’s toys and knocked over the trash.

My feed was full of tweets with the Yankees’ Opening Day lineup,
There was Aaron Hicks batting third and I thought it must be a typo or fuck-up.
It wasn’t and Aaron Boone would be using the switch-hitter to unnecessarily break up the righty bats,
Completely disregarding common sense, logic, rational thinking or stats.

That’s OK, I thought, as not even Boone’s nonsensical decision making could ruin this day,
Unless he were to bring in Luis Cessa in a high-leverage situation to every Yankees fan’s dismay.
It was only the first game of 162 and much too early to get on the manager at this point in the year,
I would wait until at least the second or third game to voice my fear.

After the disappointment of ’18, ’19 and ’20, the Yankees are expected to once again contend,
Even though they let Tanaka walk and are bringing back essentially the same team because Hal didn’t want to spend.
Worried Yankee Stadium won’t sell enough $15 beers, Hal cut payroll by 50 million bucks,
If the Yankees don’t win it all, he’ll have to sit through another winter of hearing how he sucks.

Sure, the lineup is full with LeMahieu, Stanton, Voit, Frazier, Torres and Judge,
But when it came to trading for Francisco Lindor or exceeding the luxury-tax threshold, Hal wouldn’t budge.
Ownership didn’t want to use their financial resources to field the best roster they possibly could,
Thinking their long-term deals would turn into Heyward, Pujols, Price or Millwood.

So the front office went cheap in replacing Tanaka, Paxton and Happ,
Scared away from the more expensive names by the game’s fake salary cap.
Then Britton and Wilson got hurt in Tampa and they decided to pay Ottavino to pitch against them,
Early on each night the starting pitching is going to be asked to throw a gem.

Sure, with the team roster they have built the Yankees can still win,
Unless in the playoffs, Boone gives the ball to this year’s 2020 Happ or 2018 Lance Lynn.
After three years at the helm, it’s nearly impossible to trust the manager with moves in the pen,
And if he didn’t learn his lesson from last October, there will be a first-round exit again.

With at least three relievers you would undoubtedly consider elite,
If the Yankees have the lead after six when the bullpen is healthy, they should be hard to beat.
That is if Boone has figured out who should get the ball and when,
Thankfully, his comfort blanket in Jonathan Holder is no longer an option to bring in.

Now, Judge! Now, Stanton! Now, Gleyber and Gary!
Add in Voit and Frazier and the offense is once again scary.
From the netting in Monument Park to the short porch in right and over the wall,
I’m not worried about the offense carrying the team through the summer and to the fall.

The rotation is full of injury questions and depth is a concern,
But what rotation goes through an entire season without several minor leaguers getting a turn?
A couple elbow tears, a shoulder injury and lack of innings are the issues,
If Michael King is given another chance to start, I’ll need several boxes of tissues.

This October will be 12 years since the Yankees last won it all,
Enough is enough, there needs to be a Canyon of Heroes parade this fall.
I expect the Yankees to win the last game of the baseball season,
And if they don’t, their decision to be cheap better not be the reason.

One last time tomorrow, I will wish this offseason Hal had been more like his dad, The Boss,
As Gerrit Cole stands on the mound and throws his final warmup toss.
“Stepping up to the microphone is the voice of the New York Yankees,” I can hear Suzyn say,
With John replying, “Why, Suzyn, I thank you,” as the 2021  season gets underway.


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2021 MLB Over/Under Win Total Predictions

With baseball back this week, it’s time for the 2021 over/under win total predictions. Five overs and five unders for the season.

It’s baseball eve. Tomorrow there will be real, meaningful baseball and the start of a full 162-game season.

With baseball back this week, it’s time for the 2021 over/under win total predictions. Five overs and five unders for the season.

OVERS

NEW YORK YANKEES, 95.5
On paper, the Yankees are the best team in the American League. Unfortunately, “on paper” doesn’t win you the pennant or the World Series. (If it did, the last 11 baseball seasons wouldn’t have ended in disappointment.) “On paper” also doesn’t account for injuries, which with these Yankees will be sure to decide their 2021 fate. Their rotation mostly hasn’t pitched over the last two years and their lineup has been injured more than any other team in baseball over the same time. There isn’t a single Yankees everyday player who hasn’t had at least one injured list stint between 2019 and 2020.

Thankfully, the majority of the league isn’t trying to win or be competitive, and the Yankees only have a handful of teams to worry about preventing them from being the best team in the AL. I actually think 95.5 is low for this team when you consider 38 of their games will be against the Red Sox and Orioles, and another 33 games against the Tigers, Royals, Indians, Mariners and Rangers. That’s 44 percent of their schedule against bad to really bad to really, really bad teams. I think this number should have been around 98.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX, 90.5
This number is very low. The White Sox are the second-best team “on paper” in the after the Yankees, and it can certainly be argued that they are better than the Yankees. I believe the White Sox are the Yankees’ only true competition to represent the AL in the World Series. They will also play an astounding 57 games against the Royals, Tigers and Indians. If the White Sox were to play only .600 baseball in those 57 games, they would go 34-23. That means they would only have to go 57-48 against the rest of the league to get to 91 wins and beat this number. The math makes way too much sense to take the over.

SAN DIEGO PADRES, 94.5
Another number that seems low. The Padres’ rotation includes Blake Snell, Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Chris Paddack and Dinelson Lamet. They could have the worst lineup in baseball and they would be an over-.500 team just because of their pitching, the way the Rays have been all these years. But they don’t have the worst lineup in baseball, they have a very strong lineup. The Dodgers and Padres could both win 100 games like the Yankees and Red Sox and one of the two will end up playing a one-game playoff for their season.

HOUSTON ASTROS, 87.5
Everyone is a little too down and a little too quiet on the Astros, which worries me that the Yankees will see them again in the ALCS and lose to them again in the ALCS. In 2019, the Astros were coming off a 103-win 2018 season and their win total was set at 96.5. I took the over, and they won 107 games. Are the Astros now 19.5 games worse than they were two years ago? Sure, they no longer have Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander is out for the season and George Springer is on the Blue Jays, but the Astros are still really good. They might not be what they were from 2017-19, but even in last year’s shortened season without Cole or Verlander, they were one win away from returning to the World Series for the third time in four years. I would love for nothing more than the Astros to come in well under this number. I just don’t think they will.

CHICAGO CUBS, 78.5
The Cubs aren’t a below-.500 team. Even if they spent the offseason operating as if they’re a small-market team, they still have a solid offense, which will be able to mask just how bad their pitching is. For as far as the Cubs have fallen over the last few years, the NL Central sucks, and while the Cubs won’t be a postseason team, they can certainly finish at least 79-83 to win this over.

UNDERS

BOSTON RED SOX, 80.5
The Red Sox sucked in 2019, they sucked in 2020 and they are going to suck in 2021. I never want the Red Sox to be good, but it would be nice if they were OK. Not anything great, but good enough that their games against the Yankees meant something. I don’t think that’s going to happen anytime soon. For the Red Sox to go over, they’re going to have to be a .500 team. They aren’t a .500 team. Not with a rotation held together by scotch tape and string, and not with a lineup that has moved on from their entire starting outfield over the last calendar year.

SEATTLE MARINERS, 72.5
This is a sad pick because the Mariners have the longest postseason drought in baseball (2001). They’re just not any good. Even in 2019 when they got off to a 13-2 start, they still finished the season 68-94. (That’s a 55-92 run after the first 15 games.) The Mariners have both Justus Sheffield and James Paxton on their roster now after they traded the uninspiring Paxton to the Yankees for Sheffield before 2019, so it would be fitting if they became a dominant 1-2 punch at the front end of the Mariners’ rotation. Even if that did happen and caused me more pain than I have already endured after being vehemently against that trade, the team still isn’t winning 73-plus games.

TEXAS RANGERS, 67.5
The Rangers might be the worst team in baseball. If they’re not, I’m going to lose a lot of money because I will likely be betting against them on most nights for the next six months. This is a 100-loss team, and 100 losses means less than 68 wins.

COLORADO ROCKIES, 63.5
How is Bud Black still managing the Rockies? As someone who frequently bets Coors Field unders, Black is the absolute worst bullpen manager in the league. He makes me feel fortunate to root for a team that has Aaron Boone as its manager. Black does things Boone wouldn’t dream of doing, and over the last three years I watched Jonathan Holder pitch in high-leverage situations and in crucial games.

The Rockies have the second-lowest win total number of all 30 teams, and rightfully so. They have two superpowers in their division and 38 games against the Dodgers and Padres means a lot of losses. In 2020, there were only two teams that played to a 100-loss pace in a 162-game season: Texas and Pittsburgh. In 2019, four teams lost at least 100 games, and in 2018, three teams lost at least 100 games. The Rockies can avoid a 100-loss season and still win this under with only 99 losses. I think 99 losses would be a good year for this roster.

PITTSBURGH PIRATES, 59.5
Yes, I’m taking the under on an expected 102-103-loss team. That’s how bad the Pirates are. I’m not even worried about the Pirates being able to hand me a loss if they go 60-102 this season. This roster is right up there with one of the all-time worst, and I would take this under even if it were set at 50.5


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