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Yankees Thoughts: Frustrating Weekend at Fenway

The Yankees had a chance to demoralize the Red Sox at Fenway Park over the last four days. Unfortunately, they blew multiple-run leads on both Saturday and Sunday to help out their reeling rival.

The Yankees had a chance to demoralize the Red Sox at Fenway Park over the last four days. Unfortunately, they blew multiple-run leads on both Saturday and Sunday to help out their reeling rival.

Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.

1. The Yankees could have and should have swept the Red Sox at Fenway Park this weekend. Sure, I would have signed up for splitting the series prior to first pitch on Thursday, but after blowing a late two-run lead on Saturday and not being able to protect two different four-run leads on Sunday, a split feels like shit.

If the Yankees simply had a couple bad games like any team does over the course of 162 and lost on Saturday and Sunday, so be it. It happens. But the way they lost the third and fourth games of the series (after nearly blowing a five-run lead in the series opener) left a bad taste in my mouth going into Monday’s scheduled day off.

This happens all too frequently with these Yankees as they have now won just three of eight games this season leading into a scheduled day off and are 13-16 in such games since the start of last season. I understand you sometimes have to lose the battle to win the war, but the Yankees haven’t won the war in going on 13 years because they have lost (or given away) too many battles.

2. There’s a very good chance the Yankees and Red Sox meet in the ALDS. That would mean Gerrit Cole against whichever Red Sox pitcher they didn’t have to burn in the best-of-3 wild-card series. It could be Cole against a fringe major leaguer only in the majors because of injuries like it was Josh Winckowksi on Thursday night and I wouldn’t feel confident. Cole has a Red Sox problem. He has a Fenway Park problem. He has a Rafael Devers.

Luckily, Cole would face the Red Sox at Yankee Stadium in that situation. (Not like that’s so much better given what we saw from him on Opening Day in the Bronx, but it’s better.) The last time Cole pitched well against the Red Sox was on July 17, 2021 at Yankee Stadium. He went six innings and allowed one run with 11 strikeouts. His catcher? Gary Sanchez. Nothing to see here! Good thing Kyle Higashioka unnecessarily served as Cole’s personal catcher! Since that game it’s been a bunch of mediocre to dreadful starts for Cole against the Red Sox, including the one-game playoff, Opening Day and this past Thursday.

Cole will get the ball in Game 1 of the ALDS no matter what. If he’s faces the Red Sox that night, I won’t feel good about it, but there’s nothing that can be done. Just have to hope the Cole that was paired with Sanchez last July against them shows up.

3. Thursday’s 6-5 win was a game the 2021 Yankees lose. Instead of having Michael King and Clay Holmes at the back of the bullpen, it would have been Chad Green and Aroldis Chapman and the Yankees’ five-run lead would have been completely erased. We saw that duo destroy leads in Boston exactly a year ago.

I trust King and Holmes as much as I have ever trusted any Yankees 8-9 combination and that includes Mariano Rivera’s career. Holmes isn’t susceptible to the long ball. He isn’t susceptible to the ball being hit in the air period, even lazy fly balls. In Saturday’s loss, Holmes gets charged with the blown save, but he did his job: he got Alex Verdugo to hit a ground ball. It’s not Holmes’ fault the Yankees shifted and the ball got through the vacated hole on the left side.

4. The Yankees lost on Saturday because they ran themselves into outs on the bases with Kyle Higashioka inexplicably trying to steal second, Joey Gallo unnecessarily going for an inside-the-park home run and Anthony Rizzo attempting to steal third with one out in the 10th inning. They lost because Aaron Boone wouldn’t go back to Holmes in the 10th, even though he had just gone a week with throwing only two pitches. They lost because Boone thought Wandy Peralta was the best choice in the 10th with only right-handed batters due up. They lost because Josh Donaldson booted what should have been a game-ending double play.

On Sunday, they lost because Boone sat back and let Jameson Taillon piss away two different four-run leads. Once the second four-run lead was erased, Boone handed the ball to Aroldis Chapman in a tie game at Fenway Park, just days removed from saying Chapman would only pitch in low-leverage situations until he sorted himself out. Three batter later, the bases were loaded with no one out.

5. Later in the game on Sunday, Boone got ejected for arguing balls and strikes. I had second-hand embarrassment for Boone as he yelled at home plate umpire Tripp Gibson, “That’s fucking ball 6!,” after Giancarlo Stanton struck out looking. Boone wasn’t wrong. Hirokazu Sawamura threw six pitches to Stanton and they were all outside the zone. Stanton took all of them and was called out on strikes. But it wasn’t Gibson’s fault Boone sat back and watched Taillon blow two different four-run leads and allow six earned runs in five innings. It wasn’t Gibson’s fault Boone went to Chapman who immediately gave the Red Sox the lead. It was a bad look for the Yankees manager in a game and weekend full of bad looks for him.

Boone is an idiot. We have known this since the first series of his managerial career with his bullpen decisions in Toronto in 2018. Those decisions foreshadowed what would come that postseason and in the following seasons. Boone’s idiocy has been mostly masked this season by the incredible first half the starting pitching provided, Aaron Judge’s MVP campaign and the combination of King and Holmes. Even with the best rotation in baseball, the best player in baseball (this season) and the best back-end duo in baseball, Boone still can’t help himself show his true colors regularly. Boone isn’t a different manager in 2022, his players have just performed better. And for some reason when he opposes the Red Sox and Alex Cora, he can’t help himself from looking like a fool.

6. After the Astros series, I wrote the following about Taillon:

I have always planned on having Jameson Taillon out of the rotation for the postseason and his start on Thursday solidified my opinion. The Yankees are most likely to see the Red Sox, Rays or Blue Jays in the ALDS. While he has pitched well against the Rays and Blue Jays, I still wouldn’t trust him in a postseason games against those teams and in no way would I trust him against the Rafael Devers-J.D. Martinez-Xander Bogaerts Red Sox trio. Under no circumstance could he ever possibly start a playoff game against the Astros.

Since his start against the Astros, this is his line in four starts:

21 IP, 30 H, 20 R, 20 ER, 3 BB, 17 K, 7 HR, 8.57 ERA, 1.571 WHIP

That includes two poor starts against the worst-team-in-the-majors A’s and on the on-pace-for-94-losses Pirates.

Taillon was awful on Sunday night. He blew two different four-runs leads and allowed six earned runs in five innings, including three home runs. What did Boone think about Taillon’s latest egg?

“I thought he threw the ball really well,” Boone said. “There was a lot of conviction. There were a lot of good pitches. The stuff was quality.”

Again, he gave up three home runs and couldn’t hold a 4-0 or 6-2 lead. The stuff was quality!

Taillon can’t get a postseason start. He shouldn’t even get a postseason roster spot. If he’s not starting, what role would he have? Long men aren’t used in playoff games since every out is vital (don’t tell that to Joe Girardi who used Luis Ayala twice in the 2011 ALDS before using David Robertson once), and he doesn’t have the stuff to be a back-end reliever since he doesn’t have strikeout stuff. He can sit next to me in the stands and watch the postseason. Or he can sit in the dugout in his uniform and watch it. Either way, he can’t be a part of it.

7. Matt Carpenter needs to be a part of it. In Thursday’s Yankees Thoughts, I begged for the Yankees to make Carpenter an everyday player because he had earned it, and I believe in putting the best team on the field, and don’t believe in the Yankees’ philosophy of putting the team that’s owed the most money on the field.

Carpenter has now been an everyday player for all of July. He’s not filling in for injured regulars like he was when he signed for the Rays series back at the end of May. And as an everyday player in July, he’s hitting .464/.516/.964 with six runs, two doubles, for home runs, nine RBIs and two walks in 31 plate appearances. Over the weekend in Boston, he went a comical 7-for-14 with four runs, a double, two home runs, four RBIs, two walks and hit .500/.588/1.000. He hasn’t been great. He’s been Barry Bonds.

There’s no way Carpenter can go back to being a once-a-week-player like he was in June. After Judge, he’s the hitter I trust most on the Yankees. He works long counts, only swings at strikes and seems to be on base in every plate appearance. There’s a strong case to be made that Carpenter and not Rizzo should be batting third for the Yankees. If he keeps up even half of this production, that move should be made. Again, I care about creating the best possible roster and lineup. I don’t care about money owed, years owed on current contracts or manager-player relationships. I care about winning. If the Yankees did the same, the team wouldn’t be trying to win it’s first championship in 13 years.

8. It’s going to be hard to win that championship with Isiah Kiner-Falefa as the team’s starting shortstop. The Isiah Kiner-Falefa Stopgap Experiment has run its course. Over the weekend, Kiner-Falefa faced mostly minor-league pitching and went 1-for-12 with a walk. He had a magnificent play at shortstop on Saturday, but negated it by throwing away an easy, routine play on Sunday. He can’t be trusted at the plate to do anything other than hit a weak grounder on the first or second pitch of his at-bat. In the field he can’t be trusted to make even the most routine play.

I have no problem with Kiner-Falefa. He didn’t ask to be traded to the Yankees and used as a stopgap to either Oswald Peraza or Anthony Volpe. I have a problem with the Yankees for choosing him to be their starting shortstop. I will have an enormous problem if he’s the starting shortstop come the ALDS in October.

It won’t be impossible to win the World Series with Kiner-Falefa in the lineup, but it won’t be easy. The Yankees would essentially be playing with a near-automatic out in their lineup at a time when each out is so valuable. They will also lose another bat to keep Kiner-Falefa in the lineup.

If the Yankees don’t make any moves and keep their current roster, these bats could potentially play in October:

1. Jose Trevino
2. Anthony Rizzo
3. DJ LeMahieu
4. Gleyber Torres
5. Josh Donaldson
6. Matt Carpenter
7. Aaron Judge
8. Gianarlo Stanton
9. Aaron Hicks

If it were me, I would use those nine names to create a lineup. I would put Torres back at shortstop over Kiner-Falefa. The Yankees aren’t going to do that. No matter how many routine plays Kiner-Falefa fails to make (like he did on Sunday night), he’s going to play short if the roster remains the same. To me, that would mean sitting Hicks down. But in order to sit Hicks down, a general manager, front office and manager who absolutely adore Hicks for unknown reasons would have to agree to not play him.

The Yankees had their chance in the offseason to sign a real shortstop. They didn’t. So now Yankees fans need to pray Peraza continues to break out at Triple-A and forces the Yankees to give him an extended look in the majors. Otherwise Kiner-Falefa will play in October and someone who’s an actual major leaguer that can help the team win the World Series won’t.

9. On Saturday, Hicks’ OPS reached .700 for the first time since May 4. Congratulations to Hicks on that achievement. He has three home runs in his last 32 plate appearances after having three in his first 235 plate appearances. I have seen the idea floated that Hicks’ wrist is finally regaining its strength and that his power is returning. I wish that were true.

Hicks’ three July home runs have come against Josh VanMeter, Winckowski and Kutter Crawford. VanMeter is a utility position player for the Pirates and not a pitcher. Winckowski has 31 career innings to his name. Crawford has 32 career innings to his name. Hicks saw something resembling a major-league pitcher on Sunday in Nick Pivetta (who does truly suck) and went 0-for-3 with a walk.

The same goes for Josh Donaldson. Donaldson homered on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. He hit them against Mitch Keller, Winckowski and Connor Seabold. His other six home runs this year have come against Travis Lakins, Cal Quantrill, Tanner Banks, Matt Foster and Felix Bautista. The only name of those nine that might throw a pitch in the postseason is Quantrill, but his Guardians are currently under .500, don’t hold a playoff spot and have a worse record than the Orioles.

I want Hicks and Donaldson to play well. Hicks is under contract for three more years and Donaldson for next year. The two them meeting expectations would help the Yankees win the World Series. But I’m not about to get excited for the two of them mashing position players pitching and a bunch of fringe major leaguers making spot starts.

10. For the division, this past weekend didn’t matter. The Yankees’ lead remains an insurmountable 14 games, and the Rays and Blue Jays have both lost three and four straight respectively. What this weekend did matter for was having the best record in the American League, which the Yankees still do, but now only have a 4 1/2-game edge over the extremely hot Astros.

A little over a week ago when the Yankees went to Houston and scored one run it was nothing new. That’s what they do in Houston, and that type of performance against the Astros’ fourth-best starter should be worrisome to the Yankees and should be a reminder that winning home-field advantage throughout the playoffs is imperative.

The Yankees didn’t have home-field in either the 2017 ALCS or 2019 ALCS. A potential Yankees-Astros 2022 ALCS will likely end the same way if Games 1, 2, 4 and 7 are played in Houston.


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MLB Bets: Friday, July 8

Here are the bets for Friday, July 8.

With a second child being born and now having two under 21 months, the last couple of months have been a gongshow. The betting hasn’t slowed, but the MLB Bets blogs have. There’s still half a season to be played and wagered on and then the postseason, so time to get back to the blog.

Here are the bets for Friday, July 8.

Yankees -154 over Red Sox
Just one play for Friday night.

If the Yankees don’t let the Rafael Devers-J.D. Martinez-Xander Bogaerts trio beat them, the Red Sox can’t beat them. The Red Sox are so beat up and banged up from a pitching perspective that what was a mediocre staff to begin the season is now an atrocious staff.

We saw that with Josh Winckowski getting lit up by the Yankees (and Josh Donaldson and Aaron Hicks of all hitters) on Thursday. On Friday, the Red Sox will follow up Winckowski with Connor Seabold who has pitched 8 2/3 innings this season and has allowed 18 baserunners and three home runs.

Yes, the Yankees could lose, and yes, no Yankees-Red Sox game in any season between the two teams can be considered a sure-thing for either team. But Seabold is as bad a starter as the Yankees will see this season. They don’t need Aaron Judge and Anthony Rizzo back in the lineup to beat him and the Red Sox again. But if they are both back on Friday, this line won’t be available at -154.


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Yankees Thoughts: Play Matt Carpenter, Call Up Estevan Florial

The Yankees spent the last 10 games beating up on bad teams (4-1 against the A’s and Pirates), continuing their dominance over the Guardians (3-1) and couldn’t do anything offensively yet again in their rescheduled

The Yankees spent the last 10 games beating up on bad teams (4-1 against the A’s and Pirates), continuing their dominance over the Guardians (3-1) and couldn’t do anything offensively yet again in their rescheduled game in Houston.

Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.

1. A little more than a week off from the Thoughts and not much has happened. The Yankees swept the A’s (as they should), scored one run in a loss in Houston (as they always do), beat up on the Guardians (as they should) and then had one anemic offensive performance in Pittsburgh and one outstanding offensive performance in Pittsburgh. I would say the last 10 games have gone exactly as expected. No surprises.

2. I was surprised on Wednesday when the lineup for the second game of the two-game series against the Pirates was announced. This was the lineup Aaron Boone put together on Wednesday:

DJ LeMahieu
Aaron Judge
Matt Carpenter
Giancarlo Stanton
Gleyber Torres
Josh Donaldson
Joey Gallo
Isiah Kiner-Falefa
Kyle Higashioka

3. Matt Carpenter played in his first game as a Yankee on May 26, which was the team’s 45th game. Wednesday night’s game against the Pirates was the team’s 82nd game. Since his playing in his first game with the Yankees, the team has played 38 games. Wednesday was his 12th start.

Carpenter started on June 3 and then started again nine days later on June 12. He started on June 22 and then not again until July 2. He has had two stretches of at least nine days in which he didn’t start a game, despite being able to play first base, third base and right field, on a team whose third baseman has been absolutely atrocious and whose outfield has been Aaron Judge and sometimes Giancarlo Stanton, when he’s allowed to play the outfield.

So Carpenter isn’t good enough to start more than once in every three games on average, but when he does play he’s good enough to bat third?

4. It was refreshing to see Boone finally move Donaldson down to sixth in the order. He’s not deserving of batting that high either, but when the 7 through 9 is Joey Gallo, Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Kyle Higashioka, Donaldson has to hit sixth.

Donaldson hit his seventh home run of the season on Wednesday night in the team’s 82nd game. Since it was the Yankees’ first game in the official second half of the season, by hitting that home run Donaldson increased his 2022 pace from 12 to 14 if he were to play in remaining every game (which he won’t.) So unless Donaldson gets “hot,” he’s going to post a single-season low for home runs. (His previous low is 24.)

After Donaldson’s home run in Pittsburgh, the YES broadcast made sure to comment that Boone said he has liked Donaldson’s at-bats of late. A little puzzling since Boone and the Yankees have made it clear in the past they don’t believe in the concept of players being “hot,” and if they don’t believe in it, then none of his recent at-bats should have any correlation to his at-bat resulting in the home run on Wednesday.

Donaldson has hit four doubles and now the home run (which was his second since May 16) in his last eight games. So if Boone thinks his at-bats have been better of late then why is he hitting .226/.242/.452 in those games. The .694 OPS over his last eight games is pretty much in line with his season totals of .226/.313/.387 and a .700 OPS.

5. A .700 OPS is abysmal, especially for a player with an .863 career OPS who the Yankees owe $24 million to this season and next. (I’m not upset with Donaldson for being traded to the Yankees and immediately being washed up at age 36. That’s on the Yankees for making a trade for a 36-year-old, oft-injured third baseman.) If you want to say he’s an above-average player in 2022 based on OPS+ (101) or wRC+ (102) because offense is down for the league, well that’s bullshit. A player of Donaldson’s resume, salary and treatment shouldn’t be hovering around the league-average 100 line. He shouldn’t need to be defended and excused because “offense is down around the league.”

6. Again, I’m not upset with Donaldson. The trade was foolish the day it happened and looks even more foolish with the results of the players involved since: Donaldson has been awful, Kiner-Falefa has been awful and Ben Rortvedt has been hurt all year. I’m not defending Gio Urshela (who has been a better player than Donaldson in 2022 at one-fourth the cost) or Gary Sanchez. The Yankees could have moved both of those players in other deals. They chose to move them to acquire Donaldson and his $48 million and Kiner-Falefa, whose rarely capable of hitting the ball out of the infield. The money owed to Donaldson shouldn’t matter since we’re talking about the Yankees, but it does matter because we’re talking about the Hal Steinbrenner Yankees and Donaldson’s salary will hinder them at this trade deadline and for building the 2023 roster. The Yankees chose to pass on Carlos Correa, who is having an awesome season, and allowed the Twins to free up the money needed to sign Correa by absorbing Donaldson’s $48 million. Through one half of the season, the entire deal has been a disaster for the Yankees.

Maybe the second half of the season will be a different story. Maybe Donaldson won’t unnecessarily bat in the Top 5 in the order with a sub-.700 OPS. Maybe Kiner-Falefa will make the routine plays at shortstop and not create one (or two) outs on the first or second pitch of every at-bat. I’m not expecting either to turn it around as the season gets older (and Donaldson gets older with it). I expect Donaldson to lose playing time and at-bats to Carpenter. Well, I don’t expect it since we’re talking about the Yankees and reputation and money owed is more important than actual productions or wins, but I want Donaldson to lose playing time and at-bats to Carpenter.

7. As for Kiner-Falefa, I fear that the Yankees plan on him being the everyday shortstop for the rest of the season. They were willing to pass on every available free-agent shortstop to use Kiner-Falefa as a stopgap to either Oswald Peraza or Anthony Volpe. So unless the Yankees are willing to move Gleyber Torres back to short (they’re not) or play Marwin Gonzalez every day (they’re not) then the only option to upgrade at short is for Peraza (very unlikely) or Volpe (pretty much impossible) to force the Yankees to call them up. It’s unlikely for Peraza and nearly impossible for Volpe because the Yankees don’t want to rush either, and neither has had a season worthy of a major-league call-up. They have both been good of late, but they’re still seemingly not close to being the answer yet.

8. The Yankees could have an answer to one of the three automatic outs in their lineup in Estevan Florial. The 24-year-old outfielder is having a breakout season at Triple-A, finally putting it all together with a .905 OPS. He’s deserving of a call-up and of getting a chance in the majors.

The Yankees have been and will continue to be connected to the Royals’ Andrew Benintendi and the Cubs’ Ian Happ, but before needing to go out and deplete the farm even more to acquire an answer to Gallo after already trading away four pieces from the farm a year ago to acquire Gallo, Florial should get a chance. The answer could already be in the organization. A 24-year-old, left-handed-hitting center fielder, who the Yankees have been grooming and waiting on since 2015!

Call up Florial and play him every day for the remainder of July and see what you have. Even that’s not the greatest sample size of everyday playing time in the majors, but it’s better than the current situation of him hitting bombs in Triple-A while Gallo and Hicks strike out, ground out and pop up pitches in the majors.

9. The Yankees have two in-house fixes to ridding themselves of two automatic outs in the lineup by playing Carpenter regularly and calling up Florial. The only way to rid themselves of the third is for all Yankees fans to collectively pray that Peraza goes off for the next month in Triple-A the way Florial has of late and then the Yankees will be forced to try something other than letting Kiner-Falefa hit a weak ground ball to short on the first or second pitch of every at-bat of his.

Living with one automatic out in the lineup is doable. It’s not ideal, but it’s doable. It’s less doable than it was entering the season when Yankees fans thought they were getting a Gold Glove at short with a contact-approach bat in the 9-hole, since what Yankees fans got was a slight upgrade from Gleyber Torres at short with a weak-contact-only bat. But I guess it’s doable.

10. The Yankees buried the Red Sox in the AL East long ago. The Red Sox haven’t had a chance to win the division in months. Over the next 10 days, the Yankees can severely hurt the Red Sox’ playoff chances as well.

The Yankees will play the Red Sox four times this weekend and three times next weekend. The Red Sox’ pitching staff is in shambles, their bullpen sucks, and if you don’t let the Rafael Devers-J.D. Martinez-Xander Bogaerts trio beat you, the Red Sox won’t beat you.

If these Yankees want to avoid the possibility of being eliminated by the Red Sox in the postseason for the third time in five years, they can make sure the Red Sox don’t get to the postseason by beating up on them for the next two weekends and in their 16 remaining games against them this season.


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Yankees Thoughts: Extend Aaron Judge and Upgrade Roster to Beat Astros

The Yankees miraculously went 2-2 against the Astros in a four-game series in the Bronx. It took two late-game comebacks and two walk-off wins for the Yankees to avoid a disastrous sweep at the hands of the team that has eliminated them three times in their last six postseason appearances.

The Yankees miraculously went 2-2 against the Astros in a four-game series in the Bronx. It took two late-game comebacks and two walk-off wins for the Yankees to avoid a disastrous sweep at the hands of the team that has eliminated them three times in their last six postseason appearances.

Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.

1. The Yankees won two of the four games against the Astros, but it doesn’t feel like it. If not for the ninth-inning comeback on Thursday after getting no-hit for the previous seven innings, and the late-game comeback on Sunday after getting no-hit for the previous 6 1/3 innings, it would feel even worse. Thankfully, Aaron Judge is a Yankee (for now) and continues to have one of the best offensive seasons of all time, providing the Yankees with a walk-off single on Thursday and a walk-off, three-run home run on Sunday.

Judge “settled” in his arbitration case on Friday, though he essentially won. The Yankees met him halfway in their numbers at $19 million and gave him incentive bonuses that could be worth $500,000 more. So the complete value of his 2022 deal is closer to his filing number than the Yankees’.

The seven-year, $230 million extension offered prior to Opening Day was completely fair, and Judge was crazy to turn it down given his injury history and the likelihood of him having the type of season he’s having now. You have to be crazy to turn down nearly a quarter of a billion dollars given everything about his career to date, but he did, and at least through June 26, his enormous gamble is paying off. But he has a very long way to go. He has to stay healthy for the next three-plus months, which won’t be easy given his history. Fortunately, outside of last year’s debacle in which he needed time off after not traveling well despite the chartered planes and five-star hotels and amenities the Yankees are provided, he has avoided the injured list (where he lived from 2018 to 2020).

The Yankees need Judge for the immediate future. When healthy, he’s on the short list of the best players in baseball. The back end of Judge’s free-agent deal will most likely be extremely painful to watch. Every long-term position player deal ends up being one. You pay for the first few years of the deal, and deal with the last few years of it. For players like Mike Trout and Mookie Betts, their teams received a few years on the right side of 30 and more years of their prime in their extensions. The Yankees, whether through an extension or free agency, will be getting zero years of Judge’s 20s and less years of his prime. That’s why the Opening Day extension offer was fair.

The Yankees need Judge more than he needs them. There will always be some team and some owner looking to make a splash, like the Mariners did with Robinson Cano. The Yankees can easily give Judge the number he’s looking for and still be able to make ends meet. The bond holders Hal Steinbrenner likes to reference will still get their payments on time if the Yankees give Judge the highest average annual salary in the league.

The Yankees have to extend or re-sign Judge. Sure, he said he wouldn’t talk about an extension once the season started, but if the Yankees came to him with some over-the-top offer today, you bet your ass his fake preseason ultimatum will disappear. They have to re-sign him because there’s no alternative. Take Judge off the Yankees and where are they?

The Yankees’ window isn’t in four and five years when no one knows what Judge will be or how someone of his size and stature will age. Their window is now, when he’s at his peak and he and the rest of the Yankees’ core is still in their prime.

Maybe the Yankees’ plan is to let him hit free agency and see how the rest of the league values him, knowing they could (in theory) match any offer he receives. But once he becomes a free agent, the odds he signs with the Yankees drastically decrease.

I don’t care about what Judge will be in 2028. I care about what he will be in 2023, and that’s one of the best players in baseball who can help the Yankees win the World Series. That’s what the Yankees should care about as well.

2. Whether Judge is a Yankee in 2023 and beyond, to win the World Series in 2022 and beyond, the Yankees are going to need to solve the Astros. Going 2-2 against the Astros over the weekend is nice given how the poorly the Yankees’ offense was in all but like five innings in the four games.

On Thursday in the series opener, they got a three-run home run from Giancarlo Stanton in the first inning and then were no-hit until the ninth inning. On Friday, they scored one run on five hits. On Saturday, they were no-hit for the first time since 2003. On Sunday, they were no-hit for the first 6 1/3 innings. Here is how their hits by inning looks for the series:

2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 1

3. The “FUCK AL-TU-VE” chants at Jose Altuve and “CHEAT-ER” chants at Altuve and Alex Bregman aren’t working. I wish they were, but they aren’t. They’re not even close to working. If anything, it seems like they make those two even better.

Altuve reached base four times in the first game of the series, hit a home run in the Astros’ no-hitter win and then led off Sunday’s game with a home run. He hit .357/.526/.929 and reached base 10 of his 19 plate appearances in the series with four extra-base hits and four runs scored.

Bregman has had an atrocious season and entered the series with a .743 OPS. All he did at Yankee Stadium was hit .308/.500/.615, reaching base in eight of his 18 plate appearances with a pair of extra-base hits.

4. The Astros aren’t scared of the Yankees, and after going 0-3 on the road in the 2017 ALCS, admitting how intimidating the Stadium was, that no longer seems to be the case.

Why should the Astros be scared of the Yankees? They eliminated them in 2015, 2017 and 2019. They have reached the ALCS in five straight years and the World Series in three of the those five. No team should be scared of the Yankees. As an organization, they haven’t reached or won the World Series in going on 13 years. As a group, these Yankees have accomplished nothing. They have won a lot of regular-season games, set a bunch of home run records and are now trying to set a single-season wins record. None of that has or will mean anything once the second season starts. The Astros made that clear this weekend.

The Yankees should be scared of the Astros. As a fan, I am. The Yankees could win 125 games during the regular season and no fan could possibly feel comfortable or confident in a series against the Astros.

Framber Valdez no-hit the Yankees after a first-inning, three-run home run. Justin Verlander had his all-too-familiar dominating performance against them. Christian Javier no-hit them. Jose Urquidy, who has been a disappointment this season no-hit them for 6 1/3 innings. What happens when Lance McCullers Jr. (who absolutely owns them) comes back? What happens when they go out and acquire Frankie Montas or Luis Castillo at the trade deadline? And you know they’re adding someone or someones at the deadline. They always do. In 2017 it was Verlander. In 2018 it was Gerrit Cole. In 2019 it was Zack Greinke. In 2021, it was Kendall Graveman. The Astros are only going to get better.

I don’t know that the Yankees will get better. Ownership didn’t make a single move at the 2019 deadline for a team that went on to win 103 games and then had no starting pitching to get a through a seven-game series against … the Astros. They didn’t make a move at the 2020 deadline either. It’s not a given the Yankees are going to go out and upgrade ht roster pots they desperately need to upgrade.

5. I have always planned on having Jameson Taillon out of the rotation for the postseason and his tart on Thursday solidified my opinion. The Yankees are most likely to see the Red Sox, Rays or Blue Jays in the ALDS. While he has pitched well against the Rays and Blue Jays, I still wouldn’t trust him in a postseason games against those teams and in no way would i trust him against the Rafael Devers-J.D. Martinez-Xander Bogaerts Red Sox trio. Under no circumstance could he ever possibly start a playoff game against the Astros.

I have joked that Taillon is Phil Hughes 2.0. He short arms the ball like Hughes, he can’t put away hitters with two strikes like Hughes and he even kind of looks like Hughes. Sure, he limits walks like Hughes, but that’s the only truly good thing he does.

Entering his start on Thursday, Taillon had stranded the most runners in baseball. That’s called a recipe for disaster. Eventually, regression will hit and those runners will become runs. On Thursday, that regression happened.

Taillon allowed 11 baserunners in 5 2/3 innings and six of them scored. He gave up four doubles and two home runs and the Astros’ 1 through 5 in Altuve, Michael Brantley, Bregman, Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker clobbered him, going 9-for-14 with all six of the Astros’ run and all six of their RBIs. It’s a good thing reigning batting champion Yuli Gurriel is still lost at the plate or the Astros’ vaunted 1 through5 would be their vaunted 1 through 6.

6. Aaron Hicks’ game-tying, three-run home run on Thursday night was one of the Top 4 moments of his career. The other three are his 2017 ALDS home run off Corey Kluber, his 2019 catch against the Twins and his 2019 ALCS home run off Verlander. That’s it. That’s the list. That home run saved Hicks from being in the next few thoughts with a trio of Yankees that have had very little to do with the team’s success this season.

7. Josh Donaldson had one hit in the series and struck out five more times in 12 plate appearances. The “Is he washed up or just slumping?” debate is leaning heavily in favored of washed up. The season is 45 precent complete. After next Tuesday’s game, the season will be half over. When exactly is he going to show up for this season?

Donaldson has played in 18 games in June and has struck out at least once in all but one of them. His at-bats aren’t even competitive. It’s not like he’ striking out after a lengthy seven- or eight-pitch battle. If he doesn’t ground out pop up on one of the first two pitches, he usually strikes out in three or four pitches. He has been absolutely horrible as a Yankee.

8. If Joey Gallo is wearing a Yankees uniform on August 2, Brian Cashman is truly an asshole, praying and hoping to salvage the smallest bit of positivity in a trade that was an abject failure. Gallo went 0-for-7 with four strikeouts against the Astros. He’s 0-for-his-last-17 now with 10 strikeouts. He last homered three weeks ago this Thursday. He last got a hit 10 days ago. He went from being the Yankees’ 2-hitter upon the trade for him lat year to becoming the team’s 9-hitter this year to becoming a platoon player to getting pinch hit for by the catcher two weeks ago to now being unplayable. the Yankees traded four prospects for a player who is healthy and just sat on the bench in two of their four biggest regular-season games of the year.

9. Are there still Isiah Kiner-Falefa fans out there? The homer-less Kiner-Falefa looked overmatched against the pitching staff of the team the Yankees need to overcome to win a championship, pitches and hits. Then on Sunday in the 10th inning with the automatic runner on, he booted a routine grounder to give the Astros two on with no one out in extra innings. At one point in the series, Kiner-Falefa went 0-for-4 on six pitches, as his goal continues to be to make a soft contact out as quickly as possible.

10. The Yankees are going to the postseason. The Astros are going to the postseason. They will be the 1 and 2 seeds in the American League postseason, and so they won’t be able to meet until the ALCS. If they do meet there for the third time in six years, the Yankees need to be better equipped than they currently are to play them in a seven-game series. Counting on frequent eighth- and ninth-inning comebacks would be like continuing to count on Donaldson, Gallo and Kiner-Falefa.


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Yankees Thoughts: Jose Trevino’s Roster Spot Doesn’t Need Upgrade

Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.

The Yankees continued their historic season, winning two of three against the Rays in Tampa to improve their league-best record to 51-18.

Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.

1. The Yankees went to Tampa needing to win one game. They won two, and nearly won all three, taking yet another series from the Rays and improving to 7-3 on the season against the Rays. In recent seasons, that’s a series the Yankees lose and possibly get swept in. But not this season. Not in 2022. Not with this pitching staff and not with the magic that seems to follow the offense as they nearly always come through with the big hit at the right moment. And even when they don’t, like in the second games of the seres in which they lost 5-4, they still had a chance to win the game, and almost tied it with two outs in the ninth when Aaron Judge just missed hitting a game-tying home run to left field.

2. It’s very good news that Gerrit Cole has learned to beat the Rays. After his 2020 and 2021 seasons against them (and against the Red Sox and Blue Jays) I was extremely fearful Cole couldn’t beat the teams the Yankees needed him to beat the most. But this season against the Rays, he has been outstanding, culminating in him nearly throwing a no-hitter in the series opener on Monday.

3. Nestor Cortes wasn’t good on Tuesday and Jordan Montgomery turned in his worst start of the season on Wednesday. Both of them got hammered by Isaac Paredes, who hit four home runs in the series and who the Rays acquired from Detroit for Austin Meadows. The Rays traded away one player who destroyed the Yankees in Meadows and received Paredes who apparently destroys them. At the time , the Rays got crushed for the deal. Now Paredes has an .817 OPS, while Meadows has no home runs in 147 plate appearances. Just like the Evan Longoria, Chris Archer and Blake Snell deals, the Rays always make the right deal and move on from their players at the right time. For once, I would like them to get fleeced in a trade.

4. It didn’t matter that the starting pitching wasn’t good outside of Cole in the series, as the offense did just enough in the other two games to win two of three. The first game was a 4-2 Yankees win. The second was a 5-4 Yankees loss. The third was a 5-4 Yankees win. One game decided by two runs (and tied entering the ninth) and the other two decided by one run (both of which came down to the ninth). Again, in recent seasons, the Yankees don’t win those games. But this iteration of the Yankees with their league-best rotation, league-best backend relievers and timely hitting (led by Judge’s MVP season) have rolled over the Rays this season in terms of wins despite playing nearly all close games.

Here are the scores of the Yankees-Rays games this season:

7-2 Yankees
2-0 Yankees
3-1 Rays
4-2 Rays
2-0 Yankees
4-3 Yankees
2-1 Yankees
4-2 Yankees
5-4 Rays
5-4 Yankees

Nine of the 10 games have been decided by two runs or less and four have been decided by one run.

Over the last few seasons, the Rays had created a team perfectly built to beat the Yankees with a pitching staff full of hard-throwing righties. Well, the Yankees have countered the Rays by building a much better version of the Rays, now capable of winning these low-scoring games the Rays live off of. That was the last time these two teams will see each before the All-Star break.

5. When the All-Star break comes, Jose Trevino better not be spending it at home with his family. He better be spending in Los Angeles with his family at Dodger Stadium.

Jose Trevino is the man and his All-Star candidacy shouldn’t be in question. The Blue Jays’ Alejandro Kirk is deserving of being the starting catcher for the American League, but when he gets pulled from the game, Trevino should be the next catcher in. With his clutch, two-run home run in the eighth inning on Wednesday, Trevino is now hitting .283/.339/.478 with six home runs and 21 RBIs in 45 games and 124 plate appearances. It’s not his fault he’s 17th in plate appearances among AL catchers. That’s Aaron Boone’s fault as Boone continues to give his catchers equal playing time despite the fact one of them is an All-Star and one of them is barely in the league.

Not only did Trevino hit the go-ahead home run, he also had another hit in the game, and picked off Taylor Walls at third base with the bases loaded and two outs and the Rays threatening to put the game out of reach. Two nights earlier, in the series opener, it was Trevino hustling down the line on a ball hit in the infield with two outs to give the Yankees a 2-0 and it was his sacrifice fly in the ninth of that game that gave the Yankees a much-needed insurance run in their 4-2 win.

Trevino does it all. He’s the best framer in the game. He’s allowed just two passed balls. He’s thrown out 33 percent of would-be basestealers. He hits clutch home runs. He puts the ball in play. He always hustles and he always says the right thing when speaking with the media. He’s an easy player to root for and it’s obvious why he’s become a fan favorite.

6. It’s the play of players like Trevino and Judge and the starting pitching and the back end of the bullpen that has produced a 51-18 record record for the Yankees. And it’s the play of those players and pitchers that has allowed players like Kyle Higashioka (who has been better of late, but still overall horrible), Aaron Hicks (who has also been better of late, but still has two home runs and three doubles through 43 percent of the season), Joey Gallo, Josh Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa to get somewhat of a free pass and avoid immense criticism and scrutiny. But that’s what I’m here for and I’m not giving them a free pass.

Barring an amazing turnaround, it looks like the end is near for Gallo as a Yankee. When he was acquired by the Yankees, he batted second in his first few games. For the last month, except for a handful of times, he has batted ninth. He bats behind bats like Hicks, Higashioka and Kiner-Falefa. He rarely plays against left-handed pitching, and within the last few series, he has been pinch hit for on multiple occasions, including by Trevino. And as you read just a few moments ago, I love Trevino. But a guy you expected to hit in the Top 4 spots in the order and a guy you gave away four prospects for shouldn’t be getting pinch hit for by a catcher you acquired for depth right before Opening Day.

Gallo has gone from 2-hitter to 9-hitter to platoon hitter to being pinch hit for by a catcher. The next place for him to go is somewhere other than the Yankees. The trade deadline is in 41 days. Unless he becomes the exact player the Yankees thought hey were trading for, I don’t see how he’s a Yankees at the end of the day on August 2.

7. Fortunately, for Hicks, he’s under contract for next season … and the season after that … and the season after that … and then will get bought out and paid to not play for the Yankees in 2026. If not for the money owed to him, he might be on his way out as well. He likely would have been out a while ago given his combination of injuries and lack of production since 2019. Hicks is here to stay. Unless there’s some team out there dumb enough and foolish enough to take him and his owed money. (Please be some team dumb enough and foolish enough to take Hicks and his contract.) And owed money is why he’s still a Yankee and why he still plays. Owed money and name are more important than actual production for the Yankees.

8. Donaldson has both. He has the owed money in that he Yankees are paying him $24 million this season and $24 million next season, and he has the name in that he’s a former AL MVP (even if that was seven years ago, which is a long fucking time ago in baseball). But Donaldson has been absolutely atrocious as a Yankee. He’s hitting .233/.327/.386. His batting average is 35 percentage points below his career average. His on-base percentage is 28 points below his career average. His slugging percentage is 114 points below his career average. His .714 OPS is both embarrassing and 141 points below his career average. He has six home runs and is on pace to hit 14 if he plays every game for the rest of the season. That would be the lowest single-season home run total of his career.

Donaldson is 36 years old. He will be 37 and four months for Opening Day 2023. Prior to becoming a a Yankee, he was one of the hitters I feared most in the majors against the Yankees because you knew every at-bat would be six or seven pitches and would likely result in him hitting the ball hard somewhere and you just hoped it was hit right at a fielder. Now he’s a free-swinging, undisciplined shell of himself. He’s behind 0-2 in every count and nearly all of his at-bats result in a strikeout, ground ball to third or popup in the infield.

Matt Carpenter is a better play than Donaldson is right now. The difference is Carpenter had to revitalize his career over the offseason and accept playing in Triple-A to prove he could still play, whereas Donaldson had two years left on major-league deal. Donaldson is in no way deserving of playing over Carpenter right now, but he will continue to do so. And for anyone who thinks Carpenter should continue to just be a once-a-week player because he’s good at it, that’s like saying Luis Severino should have remained a reliever after 2016 because he was good at it or should have been in the bullpen this season because he was good at it last season.

There’s a good chance Donaldson is finished. Given his advanced baseball age and his recent injury history and his lack of power, it wouldn’t be surprising if he is. Given his owed money and name, he’s going to get endless chances to prove he isn’t.

9. The Twins were able to get the Yankees to take Donaldson and the $48 million owed to him and Kiner-Falefa (who they didn’t want and who the Rangers so badly didn’t want they g ave a half-billion dollars to Corey Seager and Marcus Semien) and then used the freed up shortstop position and money saved on Donaldson to sign Carlos Correa. All Correa has done on his short-term deal (which is exactly what the Yankees were looking for) is hit .293 with an .820 OPS this season, while Kiner-Falefa tries to make an out as quickly as possible in each of his plate appearances. He does put the ball in play though! He may be in the first percentile of barreling balls in the majors and the seventh percentile of hard-hit percentage, but he puts the ball in play! Who cares if “in play” means a weak grounder to short!

Kiner-Falefa was sold to Yankees fans as a Gold Glove defender. Yes, he won a Gold Glove … at third base. The problem is he plays shortstop for the Yankees and the bigger problem is that he botches routine plays frequently. I trust him no more than I trusted Gleyber Torres at the position, and I would be willing to put Torres back there to free up the lineup spot it would free up by not playing Kiner-Falefa. With Kiner-Falefa’s bat, he needs to be Omar Vizquel at shortstop.

10. I can’t imagine the Yankees are going to try to win the World Series with all of these players getting regular and everyday playing time in October. I can’t imagine they won’t move on from some of them this summer and I can’t imagine they won’t upgrade the roster and put the team in the best possible position to succeed in October. Something they didn’t do in either 2019 or 2020 when they made zero trades at the deadline in both of those seasons.

The Yankees are good enough to win the World Series as currently constructed. Obviously, since they are a league-best 51-18. But they could win 120-plus games in the regular season and if they were to lose a short series to the Blue Jays, Rays or Astros I don’t think anyone would be surprised. Winning the division (which they have already done) and getting the 1-seed in the playoffs and avoiding the best-of-3 wild-card series (which they have already done) were needed goals to help put them in the best possible to succeed in October. The next step is upgrading the roster and making sure come October there aren’t as many as four below-league-average bats in the lineup.

Come October, whatever the team accomplished in the regular season will be meaningless if they don’t finish the job with a championship. And the team they will see over the next four days at the Stadium will likely be the team they have to finally overcome to get to where they want to be.


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