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Yankees Thoughts: Can’t Be Satisfied Without 1-Seed

The Yankees are going to the postseason as the AL East champion. They need to go there as the 1-seed in the AL as well.

The Yankees finished the first “half” of the season with back-to-back wins and a series win over the Red Sox. After a lackluster previous week, the Yankees go into the All-Star break with a two-game winning streak, having outscored their rival 27-3 in their last games.

Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.

1. The Yankees are nine games into the second half of the season. Sunday was their 92nd game and 57 percent of their season has been played. They are going to the postseason. (They will never not make the postseason with 40 percent of the league getting in.) They are going to the postseason as AL East champions. They still need to go to the postseason as the 1-seed in the AL.

In recent years, the Yankees haven’t cared about how they got into the postseason, as long as they got in. When it was still a four-team format, they didn’t care about winning the division and having home-field advantage in the ALDS. When it became a five-team format for nine seasons, they didn’t mind having to play a one-game playoff to advance to the ALDS, and they did so four times, going 2-2. Now that it’s a six-team format, the only way to avoid the best-of-3 at the higher seed’s home is to win the division and have a better record than at least one of the other division winners. They have done that. The division was clinched a month ago, and once they won the division, their bye was clinched as the AL Central winner was never going to outplay the East winner or the Astros.

Now that the first two goals of the season have been achieved (winning he division and earning a bye to the best-of-5 ALDS), the next goal is to finish with the best record in the AL. If the Yankees want to finally get past the Astros in the playoffs, they’re going to need to play the most amount of games possible at Yankee Stadium in October. Having to play Games 1, 2, 6 and 7 in Houston has already not worked out twice for the Yankees, and based on the way the two teams match up and the way they have played each other this season, if the Yankees blow their 1-seed lead, I think we all now how a potential Yankees-Astros ALCS will play out.

2. The Yankees haven’t managed or played of late like they are concerned with holding off the Astros (who still have 16 games left against the A’s and Angels). The lineups have more resembled last-weekend-of-the-season-with-everything-clinched than the need to finish with the best record in the AL and baseball. The bullpen decisions have resembled the same. The way the Yankees have shown in the past that they believe getting into the postseason is more important than what seed you are when you get in, they are now showing they believe there’s no difference in being the 1-seed or the 2-seed. They couldn’t be more wrong.

3. The Yankees are nearly unbeatable at home, where they are an MLB-best 37-12. Here are their 12 home losses:

  1. 4-3 loss to the Red Sox, in which they left 12 runners on
  2. 3-0 loss to the Blue Jays and their kryptonite Alek Manoah, in which they brought the tying run to the plate in the ninth
  3. A 6-4 loss to the Blue Jays, in which they had the tying run at the plate in the ninth
  4. A 4-2 loss to the Rangers in the second game of a doubleheader, in which Michael King had his one bad game of the season blowing the lead in the seventh, and the Yankees still brought the tying run to the plate in the ninth
  5. A 3-1 loss to the White Sox, in which Aroldis Chapman gave up the go-ahead runs in the ninth
  6. A 5-0 loss to the White Sox, in which they were one-hit for the first seven innings
  7. A 6-4 loss to the Orioles, in which they blew a two-run lead and still brought the tying run to the plate in the ninth
  8. A 3-1 loss to the Astros, in which they had the winning run at the plate in the ninth
  9. A 3-0 loss to the Astros, in which they were no-hit
  10. A 4-3 loss to the Reds, in which they blew a 3-0 lead in the ninth in Clay Holmes’ one bad game of the season
  11. A 7-6 loss to Reds in 10 innings, in which they had the winning run on base in the 10th
  12. A 5-4 loss to the Red Sox in 11 innings, in which they left the bases loaded with no outs to win in the ninth and left the bases loaded with one out to win in the 10th

The Yankees have suffered two true home losses through 49 home games: the 5-0 shutout by the White Sox and the 3-0 no-hitter by the Astros. In the other 47 games, the Yankees have either won or lost because their two all-world relievers had their only bad games of the season, their highest-paid reliever melted down in the ninth or they stranded a billion runners or they. In 10 of the 12 losses, they had the tying run at the plate or on base in the ninth. The only exceptions being those two games against the White Sox and Astros.

Knowing all of this, how could you not do everything possible to earn home-field advantage through at least the AL playoffs? If the Yankees clinch the 1-seed and lose in the postseason, so be it. At least they put themselves in the best possible position to win in that aspect. If they blow the 1-seed and eventually lose on the road in the ALCS to the Astros, it will be completely unacceptable.

4. A lot of what Aaron Boone has done of late has been unacceptable, and as we grow closer to October and the postseason, my physical, emotional and mental states begin to deteriorate thinking about what he may or may not do in the biggest games.

If Boone could just make simple, logical lineup and in-game choices as manager of the Yankees, my life would be so much easier. My emotional, physical and mental health would be so much better. His life would be easier too, as would his emotional, physical and mental health. He wouldn’t have to constantly answer for his stupidity. He wouldn’t have to always be coming up with some asinine reason a move he made or tell blatant, easy-to-uncover lie about why he did what he did.

If Boone were to bring King into a tie game in the eighth inning and he were to allow the go-ahead run, then there’s nothing you can do. As long as it’s the right choice, I will never be upset at the decision. No Yankees fan should be. But rarely does Boone make the right choice in a situation in which he needs to make a choice.

5. In games in which his starter goes seven and has a lead and he can go to King and then Holmes, and he doesn’t have do anything, it’s beautiful and relieving. But when his starter doesn’t go seven, or when his offense doesn’t show up, or when it becomes a bullpen game in the fifth, situations like these rarely ever end well for the Yankees, and if they do, it’s because the offense does finally show up before it’s too late.

Last week at Fenway Park, Boone helped lead the Yankees to losses on both Saturday and Sunday. His late hooks, puzzling bullpen decisions and trying to run wild on the basepaths led to two miserable, unnecessary losses. This past Friday night, Boone was at it again at home against the Red Sox.

The Yankees were able to overcome an early two-run deficit and chase Nathan Eovaldi in the fifth in what was a 3-3 game. The Red Sox’ bullpen is atrocious (like much of their team outside of their 2-3-4 hitters), and once Jordan Montgomery was lifted after the sixth, it became a three-inning battle of the bullpens, a scenario the Yankees should never lose, especially against the Red Sox, and especially at home.

6. This was one of those times when the offense didn’t show. A lot of traffic (hat tip, Boone) with not much to show for it, just a three-run, opposite-field home run from Giancarlo Stanton. It was also a game in which Boone’s starter didn’t go seven and the team didn’t have the lead, so he couldn’t just put the game on autopilot and hand it over to King and Holmes. He would have to think. He would have to use his brain.

The first decision Boone’s brain made was to bring in Chapman. Chapman came off two weeks prior after missing more than a month with an “injury” and Boone said he would see low-leverage situations until he got back on track. After three OK performances in low-leverage situations, Boone brought him into a tie game in the seventh inning at Fenway Park. Three batters later, the Red Sox had the bases loaded with no outs and would plate the go-ahead run off Chapman in their eventual win. Three days later, Chapman threw 20 pitches in an inning against the Reds, and two days after, Boone was willing to use him yet again in a tie game against the Red Sox.

Prior to bringing Chapman in, King had been warming up. It’s likely if the Yankees had taken the lead in the bottom of the sixth, Boone would then go to King for two innings and Holmes for the ninth. But because the Yankees didn’t take the lead, Boone scrapped that plan, and went with Chapman. It took one batter, the very first batter Chapman faced for the game to be untied. Bobby Dalbec took him deep and the Red Sox had a 4-3 lead.

7. After Dalbec’s home run, Boone got King back up. What? The Yankees were now losing, and Boone wanted to go to King next if Chapman couldn’t get through the inning. Boone had already bypassed using King because the Yankees hadn’t taken the lead the half-inning before, but now he was willing to go to him when trailing? So King could pitch if the Yankees were winning or losing the game, but not if it were tied? It sounds preposterous, and yet it happened.

If ‘The Plan’ doesn’t work out (‘The Plan’ being starter for seven with the lead to King and Holmes), Boone has no fucking clue what to do. He’s lost. He freaks out and loses any semblance of intelligence, not just baseball intelligence, but all intelligence.

Chapman was able to get through that inning without further damage, and the Yankees still trailed 4-3 going into the top of the eighth. With the fearsome right-handed trio of Rafael Devers, J.D. Martinez and Xander Bogaerts due up, if Boone was truly willing to go to King while trailing, this would be the spot: the scariest “lane” (hat tip, Boone) the Red Sox have to offer. (In the postseason, trailing by one run in the eighth inning of a game with this kind of lane, Holmes should be in. But for this situation King was the right choice.) Boone didn’t choose King. He didn’t choose any righty. He instead went with the left-handed Wandy Peralta, who just six days earlier couldn’t get out the Red Sox’ right-handed hitters, taking the loss at Fenway.

Peralta did manage to get through the inning unscathed, but it didn’t make it the right choice. Choosing to drive drunk and making it home safely doesn’t make it the right choice because it worked out. Staying with a 16 with the dealer showing a 10 and the dealer busting doesn’t make it the right choice because it worked out. Going to Peralta there and not having the deficit increase doesn’t make it the right choice.

The Yankees tied the game in the ninth because Tanner Houck couldn’t throw the ball accurately to third base on the worst sacrifice bunt attempt you will ever see by Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and the Yankees were gifted the tying run. The Yankees ended up leaving the bases loaded with no one out in the ninth, and left them loaded with one out in the 10th, and lost 5-4 in 10 innings.

The Yankees lost the game because their offense scored three runs in the first eight innings, were able to tie the game on a gift error and then couldn’t score a runner from third with no outs and one out in back-to-back innings. Boone isn’t the reason they lost, but he played a role in the loss.

8. The Yankees’ offense is too inconsistent and too unpredictable that come October, the team can’t afford to have Boone play a role in losses. We have seen what the core of this offense tends to do in the postseason, and it’s not pretty. Boone will have to be near-perfect in October because that’s what it takes to win the World Series. You have to get hot, get lucky at times, get great starting pitching and timely hitting, and on top of all, have your manager push all the right buttons.

Everything Boone has done since Opening Day 2018 has been to prepare to win a championship. He has already failed four times at doing so. The lineup choices he has made in four-plus years and the bullpen decisions he has made over that same time haven’t changed much. The names have changed, but the choices and his lack of reasoning haven’t.

It was just three years ago that he was batting Brett Gardner third in the 2019 postseason and Edwin Encarnacion fourth, based on his unnecessary need to break up right-handed bats (Gardner) and his need to always bat former stars as high in the order as possible (Encarnacion). Last year, he married the idea of Hicks as the team’s 3-hitter in spring training to break up Judge and Stanton, a decision that was vehemently questioned from spring training right up until Hicks was dropped to the bottom-third of the lineup two weeks into the season. This year, he continues to bat Josh Donaldson fifth, ahead of Matt Carpenter, despite Donaldson being nothing more than a name at this point while Carpenter has produced at a Barry Bonds-like rate for two months. The names on the roster have changed, the similar decisions haven’t.

9. I’m extremely worried about what lineup the Yankees will generate for Game 1 of the ALDS in less than three months. I don’t think any Yankee fans would be surprised to see Donaldson batting fifth or sixth, Carpenter on the bench and Kyle Higashioka playing over Jose Trevino. I’m extremely worried about what bullpen decisions will be made when ‘The Plan’ doesn’t happen. Boone has already made these exact type of worrisome moves in the postseason in the past.

I’m talking about a guy whose starting pitching didn’t know what time Game 3 of the 2018 ALDS started. I’m talking about a guy who went to a non-strikeout starting pitcher with the bases loaded and no outs with the season on the line with Chapman, Dellin Betances, David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle and Chad Green in the bullpen in that Game 3. I’m talking about a guy who let CC Sabathia face the entire Red Sox’ order a second time in Game 4 of that ALDS and put the Yankees in a 3-0 hole because the guy I’m talking about “liked the matchup” of Sabathia against Jackie Bradley, who bats ninth, so he let him go through the entire lineup again. I’m talking about a guy who benched Miguel Andujar and his .297/.328/.527 slash line, 27 home runs and 47 doubles for that elimination game and never used him as a pinch hitter. I’m talking about a guy who let J.A. Happ pitch until the Astros walked off the Yankees in Game 2 of the 2019 ALCS. I’m talking about a guy who used Zack Britton, Tommy Kahnle, and Adam Ottavino in five of the six 2019 ALCs games, and then seemed surprised when Britton said they were all fatigued after the Yankees were eliminated. I’m talking about a guy who sat Gary Sanchez for Kyle Higashioka in five of the seven 2020 playoff games. I’m talking about a guy who tried to trick Kevin Cash and the Rays by pitching Deivi Garcia for one inning and then going to J.A. Happ in the second inning in the pivotal Game 2 of the 2020 ALDS. I’m talking about a guy who used Mike Ford (who was sent down in September due to production) as a pinch hitter over Sanchez and Clint Frazier in an elimination game. I’m talking about a guy who gave Gerrit Cole the ball for the 2021 one-game playoff, even though it was public knowledge Cole was dealing with a hamstring injury and then manage Cole’s outing as if the didn’t have a nagging hamstring injury and as if the Red Sox didn’t own him at Fenway Park, letting him give up three runs, two home runs, a double and two walks before relieving him with two on and no outs in the bottom of the third. I’m talking about a guy who let Luis Severino (in his second inning of work in his fifth appearance in essentially two years) put two on with no outs in the sixth inning of that game before removing him. I’m talking about a guy who let Jonathan Loaisiga issue his third walk in that game before going to another reliever. I’m talking about a guy who once again started Higashioka in an elimination game. I’m talking about a guy who used Rougned Odor as a pinch hitter before Sanchez in that elimination game and a guy who gave two at-bats in a one-game playoff to Odor. I’m talking about a guy who is managing in 2022 just like he did in 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021 but has received a historic run from his starting pitching, is getting an all-time season from his superstar center fielder and who has the best backend bullpen duo in the majors. I’m talking about a guy who didn’t become some managerial genius between the end of the team’s underwhelming, disappointing and embarrassing 2021 and the start of 2022. He’s the same guy, making the same unfathomable choices, and he’s very capable of ruining the Yankees’ best chance at ending the championship drought. Boone winning the AL Manager of the Year would be every bit as bad as Rick Porcello having won the 2016 AL Cy Young award. Boone isn’t the reason the Yankees are 64-28. He’s just along for the ride and all Yankees fans are hoping he doesn’t try to force himself into the driver’s seat and crash the season.

10. I want to like Boone and I want him to win. I want to believe he’s doing everything he can do obtain the 1-seed and avoid going on the road to Houston if it comes to that. I want him to manage as if the Yankees are still trying to achieve a goal, and not as if they’ve already achieved everything possible.

After the final out of Game 162, I will give Boone and whatever the roster looks like at that time a clean slate for the postseason, the same way I have done in every other season. That clean slate needs to come as the 1-seed in the AL.


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Yankees Thoughts: Frustrating Weekend at Fenway

The Yankees had a chance to demoralize the Red Sox at Fenway Park over the last four days. Unfortunately, they blew multiple-run leads on both Saturday and Sunday to help out their reeling rival.

The Yankees had a chance to demoralize the Red Sox at Fenway Park over the last four days. Unfortunately, they blew multiple-run leads on both Saturday and Sunday to help out their reeling rival.

Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.

1. The Yankees could have and should have swept the Red Sox at Fenway Park this weekend. Sure, I would have signed up for splitting the series prior to first pitch on Thursday, but after blowing a late two-run lead on Saturday and not being able to protect two different four-run leads on Sunday, a split feels like shit.

If the Yankees simply had a couple bad games like any team does over the course of 162 and lost on Saturday and Sunday, so be it. It happens. But the way they lost the third and fourth games of the series (after nearly blowing a five-run lead in the series opener) left a bad taste in my mouth going into Monday’s scheduled day off.

This happens all too frequently with these Yankees as they have now won just three of eight games this season leading into a scheduled day off and are 13-16 in such games since the start of last season. I understand you sometimes have to lose the battle to win the war, but the Yankees haven’t won the war in going on 13 years because they have lost (or given away) too many battles.

2. There’s a very good chance the Yankees and Red Sox meet in the ALDS. That would mean Gerrit Cole against whichever Red Sox pitcher they didn’t have to burn in the best-of-3 wild-card series. It could be Cole against a fringe major leaguer only in the majors because of injuries like it was Josh Winckowksi on Thursday night and I wouldn’t feel confident. Cole has a Red Sox problem. He has a Fenway Park problem. He has a Rafael Devers.

Luckily, Cole would face the Red Sox at Yankee Stadium in that situation. (Not like that’s so much better given what we saw from him on Opening Day in the Bronx, but it’s better.) The last time Cole pitched well against the Red Sox was on July 17, 2021 at Yankee Stadium. He went six innings and allowed one run with 11 strikeouts. His catcher? Gary Sanchez. Nothing to see here! Good thing Kyle Higashioka unnecessarily served as Cole’s personal catcher! Since that game it’s been a bunch of mediocre to dreadful starts for Cole against the Red Sox, including the one-game playoff, Opening Day and this past Thursday.

Cole will get the ball in Game 1 of the ALDS no matter what. If he’s faces the Red Sox that night, I won’t feel good about it, but there’s nothing that can be done. Just have to hope the Cole that was paired with Sanchez last July against them shows up.

3. Thursday’s 6-5 win was a game the 2021 Yankees lose. Instead of having Michael King and Clay Holmes at the back of the bullpen, it would have been Chad Green and Aroldis Chapman and the Yankees’ five-run lead would have been completely erased. We saw that duo destroy leads in Boston exactly a year ago.

I trust King and Holmes as much as I have ever trusted any Yankees 8-9 combination and that includes Mariano Rivera’s career. Holmes isn’t susceptible to the long ball. He isn’t susceptible to the ball being hit in the air period, even lazy fly balls. In Saturday’s loss, Holmes gets charged with the blown save, but he did his job: he got Alex Verdugo to hit a ground ball. It’s not Holmes’ fault the Yankees shifted and the ball got through the vacated hole on the left side.

4. The Yankees lost on Saturday because they ran themselves into outs on the bases with Kyle Higashioka inexplicably trying to steal second, Joey Gallo unnecessarily going for an inside-the-park home run and Anthony Rizzo attempting to steal third with one out in the 10th inning. They lost because Aaron Boone wouldn’t go back to Holmes in the 10th, even though he had just gone a week with throwing only two pitches. They lost because Boone thought Wandy Peralta was the best choice in the 10th with only right-handed batters due up. They lost because Josh Donaldson booted what should have been a game-ending double play.

On Sunday, they lost because Boone sat back and let Jameson Taillon piss away two different four-run leads. Once the second four-run lead was erased, Boone handed the ball to Aroldis Chapman in a tie game at Fenway Park, just days removed from saying Chapman would only pitch in low-leverage situations until he sorted himself out. Three batter later, the bases were loaded with no one out.

5. Later in the game on Sunday, Boone got ejected for arguing balls and strikes. I had second-hand embarrassment for Boone as he yelled at home plate umpire Tripp Gibson, “That’s fucking ball 6!,” after Giancarlo Stanton struck out looking. Boone wasn’t wrong. Hirokazu Sawamura threw six pitches to Stanton and they were all outside the zone. Stanton took all of them and was called out on strikes. But it wasn’t Gibson’s fault Boone sat back and watched Taillon blow two different four-run leads and allow six earned runs in five innings. It wasn’t Gibson’s fault Boone went to Chapman who immediately gave the Red Sox the lead. It was a bad look for the Yankees manager in a game and weekend full of bad looks for him.

Boone is an idiot. We have known this since the first series of his managerial career with his bullpen decisions in Toronto in 2018. Those decisions foreshadowed what would come that postseason and in the following seasons. Boone’s idiocy has been mostly masked this season by the incredible first half the starting pitching provided, Aaron Judge’s MVP campaign and the combination of King and Holmes. Even with the best rotation in baseball, the best player in baseball (this season) and the best back-end duo in baseball, Boone still can’t help himself show his true colors regularly. Boone isn’t a different manager in 2022, his players have just performed better. And for some reason when he opposes the Red Sox and Alex Cora, he can’t help himself from looking like a fool.

6. After the Astros series, I wrote the following about Taillon:

I have always planned on having Jameson Taillon out of the rotation for the postseason and his start on Thursday solidified my opinion. The Yankees are most likely to see the Red Sox, Rays or Blue Jays in the ALDS. While he has pitched well against the Rays and Blue Jays, I still wouldn’t trust him in a postseason games against those teams and in no way would I trust him against the Rafael Devers-J.D. Martinez-Xander Bogaerts Red Sox trio. Under no circumstance could he ever possibly start a playoff game against the Astros.

Since his start against the Astros, this is his line in four starts:

21 IP, 30 H, 20 R, 20 ER, 3 BB, 17 K, 7 HR, 8.57 ERA, 1.571 WHIP

That includes two poor starts against the worst-team-in-the-majors A’s and on the on-pace-for-94-losses Pirates.

Taillon was awful on Sunday night. He blew two different four-runs leads and allowed six earned runs in five innings, including three home runs. What did Boone think about Taillon’s latest egg?

“I thought he threw the ball really well,” Boone said. “There was a lot of conviction. There were a lot of good pitches. The stuff was quality.”

Again, he gave up three home runs and couldn’t hold a 4-0 or 6-2 lead. The stuff was quality!

Taillon can’t get a postseason start. He shouldn’t even get a postseason roster spot. If he’s not starting, what role would he have? Long men aren’t used in playoff games since every out is vital (don’t tell that to Joe Girardi who used Luis Ayala twice in the 2011 ALDS before using David Robertson once), and he doesn’t have the stuff to be a back-end reliever since he doesn’t have strikeout stuff. He can sit next to me in the stands and watch the postseason. Or he can sit in the dugout in his uniform and watch it. Either way, he can’t be a part of it.

7. Matt Carpenter needs to be a part of it. In Thursday’s Yankees Thoughts, I begged for the Yankees to make Carpenter an everyday player because he had earned it, and I believe in putting the best team on the field, and don’t believe in the Yankees’ philosophy of putting the team that’s owed the most money on the field.

Carpenter has now been an everyday player for all of July. He’s not filling in for injured regulars like he was when he signed for the Rays series back at the end of May. And as an everyday player in July, he’s hitting .464/.516/.964 with six runs, two doubles, for home runs, nine RBIs and two walks in 31 plate appearances. Over the weekend in Boston, he went a comical 7-for-14 with four runs, a double, two home runs, four RBIs, two walks and hit .500/.588/1.000. He hasn’t been great. He’s been Barry Bonds.

There’s no way Carpenter can go back to being a once-a-week-player like he was in June. After Judge, he’s the hitter I trust most on the Yankees. He works long counts, only swings at strikes and seems to be on base in every plate appearance. There’s a strong case to be made that Carpenter and not Rizzo should be batting third for the Yankees. If he keeps up even half of this production, that move should be made. Again, I care about creating the best possible roster and lineup. I don’t care about money owed, years owed on current contracts or manager-player relationships. I care about winning. If the Yankees did the same, the team wouldn’t be trying to win it’s first championship in 13 years.

8. It’s going to be hard to win that championship with Isiah Kiner-Falefa as the team’s starting shortstop. The Isiah Kiner-Falefa Stopgap Experiment has run its course. Over the weekend, Kiner-Falefa faced mostly minor-league pitching and went 1-for-12 with a walk. He had a magnificent play at shortstop on Saturday, but negated it by throwing away an easy, routine play on Sunday. He can’t be trusted at the plate to do anything other than hit a weak grounder on the first or second pitch of his at-bat. In the field he can’t be trusted to make even the most routine play.

I have no problem with Kiner-Falefa. He didn’t ask to be traded to the Yankees and used as a stopgap to either Oswald Peraza or Anthony Volpe. I have a problem with the Yankees for choosing him to be their starting shortstop. I will have an enormous problem if he’s the starting shortstop come the ALDS in October.

It won’t be impossible to win the World Series with Kiner-Falefa in the lineup, but it won’t be easy. The Yankees would essentially be playing with a near-automatic out in their lineup at a time when each out is so valuable. They will also lose another bat to keep Kiner-Falefa in the lineup.

If the Yankees don’t make any moves and keep their current roster, these bats could potentially play in October:

1. Jose Trevino
2. Anthony Rizzo
3. DJ LeMahieu
4. Gleyber Torres
5. Josh Donaldson
6. Matt Carpenter
7. Aaron Judge
8. Gianarlo Stanton
9. Aaron Hicks

If it were me, I would use those nine names to create a lineup. I would put Torres back at shortstop over Kiner-Falefa. The Yankees aren’t going to do that. No matter how many routine plays Kiner-Falefa fails to make (like he did on Sunday night), he’s going to play short if the roster remains the same. To me, that would mean sitting Hicks down. But in order to sit Hicks down, a general manager, front office and manager who absolutely adore Hicks for unknown reasons would have to agree to not play him.

The Yankees had their chance in the offseason to sign a real shortstop. They didn’t. So now Yankees fans need to pray Peraza continues to break out at Triple-A and forces the Yankees to give him an extended look in the majors. Otherwise Kiner-Falefa will play in October and someone who’s an actual major leaguer that can help the team win the World Series won’t.

9. On Saturday, Hicks’ OPS reached .700 for the first time since May 4. Congratulations to Hicks on that achievement. He has three home runs in his last 32 plate appearances after having three in his first 235 plate appearances. I have seen the idea floated that Hicks’ wrist is finally regaining its strength and that his power is returning. I wish that were true.

Hicks’ three July home runs have come against Josh VanMeter, Winckowski and Kutter Crawford. VanMeter is a utility position player for the Pirates and not a pitcher. Winckowski has 31 career innings to his name. Crawford has 32 career innings to his name. Hicks saw something resembling a major-league pitcher on Sunday in Nick Pivetta (who does truly suck) and went 0-for-3 with a walk.

The same goes for Josh Donaldson. Donaldson homered on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. He hit them against Mitch Keller, Winckowski and Connor Seabold. His other six home runs this year have come against Travis Lakins, Cal Quantrill, Tanner Banks, Matt Foster and Felix Bautista. The only name of those nine that might throw a pitch in the postseason is Quantrill, but his Guardians are currently under .500, don’t hold a playoff spot and have a worse record than the Orioles.

I want Hicks and Donaldson to play well. Hicks is under contract for three more years and Donaldson for next year. The two them meeting expectations would help the Yankees win the World Series. But I’m not about to get excited for the two of them mashing position players pitching and a bunch of fringe major leaguers making spot starts.

10. For the division, this past weekend didn’t matter. The Yankees’ lead remains an insurmountable 14 games, and the Rays and Blue Jays have both lost three and four straight respectively. What this weekend did matter for was having the best record in the American League, which the Yankees still do, but now only have a 4 1/2-game edge over the extremely hot Astros.

A little over a week ago when the Yankees went to Houston and scored one run it was nothing new. That’s what they do in Houston, and that type of performance against the Astros’ fourth-best starter should be worrisome to the Yankees and should be a reminder that winning home-field advantage throughout the playoffs is imperative.

The Yankees didn’t have home-field in either the 2017 ALCS or 2019 ALCS. A potential Yankees-Astros 2022 ALCS will likely end the same way if Games 1, 2, 4 and 7 are played in Houston.


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MLB Bets: Friday, July 8

Here are the bets for Friday, July 8.

With a second child being born and now having two under 21 months, the last couple of months have been a gongshow. The betting hasn’t slowed, but the MLB Bets blogs have. There’s still half a season to be played and wagered on and then the postseason, so time to get back to the blog.

Here are the bets for Friday, July 8.

Yankees -154 over Red Sox
Just one play for Friday night.

If the Yankees don’t let the Rafael Devers-J.D. Martinez-Xander Bogaerts trio beat them, the Red Sox can’t beat them. The Red Sox are so beat up and banged up from a pitching perspective that what was a mediocre staff to begin the season is now an atrocious staff.

We saw that with Josh Winckowski getting lit up by the Yankees (and Josh Donaldson and Aaron Hicks of all hitters) on Thursday. On Friday, the Red Sox will follow up Winckowski with Connor Seabold who has pitched 8 2/3 innings this season and has allowed 18 baserunners and three home runs.

Yes, the Yankees could lose, and yes, no Yankees-Red Sox game in any season between the two teams can be considered a sure-thing for either team. But Seabold is as bad a starter as the Yankees will see this season. They don’t need Aaron Judge and Anthony Rizzo back in the lineup to beat him and the Red Sox again. But if they are both back on Friday, this line won’t be available at -154.


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Yankees Thoughts: Play Matt Carpenter, Call Up Estevan Florial

The Yankees spent the last 10 games beating up on bad teams (4-1 against the A’s and Pirates), continuing their dominance over the Guardians (3-1) and couldn’t do anything offensively yet again in their rescheduled

The Yankees spent the last 10 games beating up on bad teams (4-1 against the A’s and Pirates), continuing their dominance over the Guardians (3-1) and couldn’t do anything offensively yet again in their rescheduled game in Houston.

Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.

1. A little more than a week off from the Thoughts and not much has happened. The Yankees swept the A’s (as they should), scored one run in a loss in Houston (as they always do), beat up on the Guardians (as they should) and then had one anemic offensive performance in Pittsburgh and one outstanding offensive performance in Pittsburgh. I would say the last 10 games have gone exactly as expected. No surprises.

2. I was surprised on Wednesday when the lineup for the second game of the two-game series against the Pirates was announced. This was the lineup Aaron Boone put together on Wednesday:

DJ LeMahieu
Aaron Judge
Matt Carpenter
Giancarlo Stanton
Gleyber Torres
Josh Donaldson
Joey Gallo
Isiah Kiner-Falefa
Kyle Higashioka

3. Matt Carpenter played in his first game as a Yankee on May 26, which was the team’s 45th game. Wednesday night’s game against the Pirates was the team’s 82nd game. Since his playing in his first game with the Yankees, the team has played 38 games. Wednesday was his 12th start.

Carpenter started on June 3 and then started again nine days later on June 12. He started on June 22 and then not again until July 2. He has had two stretches of at least nine days in which he didn’t start a game, despite being able to play first base, third base and right field, on a team whose third baseman has been absolutely atrocious and whose outfield has been Aaron Judge and sometimes Giancarlo Stanton, when he’s allowed to play the outfield.

So Carpenter isn’t good enough to start more than once in every three games on average, but when he does play he’s good enough to bat third?

4. It was refreshing to see Boone finally move Donaldson down to sixth in the order. He’s not deserving of batting that high either, but when the 7 through 9 is Joey Gallo, Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Kyle Higashioka, Donaldson has to hit sixth.

Donaldson hit his seventh home run of the season on Wednesday night in the team’s 82nd game. Since it was the Yankees’ first game in the official second half of the season, by hitting that home run Donaldson increased his 2022 pace from 12 to 14 if he were to play in remaining every game (which he won’t.) So unless Donaldson gets “hot,” he’s going to post a single-season low for home runs. (His previous low is 24.)

After Donaldson’s home run in Pittsburgh, the YES broadcast made sure to comment that Boone said he has liked Donaldson’s at-bats of late. A little puzzling since Boone and the Yankees have made it clear in the past they don’t believe in the concept of players being “hot,” and if they don’t believe in it, then none of his recent at-bats should have any correlation to his at-bat resulting in the home run on Wednesday.

Donaldson has hit four doubles and now the home run (which was his second since May 16) in his last eight games. So if Boone thinks his at-bats have been better of late then why is he hitting .226/.242/.452 in those games. The .694 OPS over his last eight games is pretty much in line with his season totals of .226/.313/.387 and a .700 OPS.

5. A .700 OPS is abysmal, especially for a player with an .863 career OPS who the Yankees owe $24 million to this season and next. (I’m not upset with Donaldson for being traded to the Yankees and immediately being washed up at age 36. That’s on the Yankees for making a trade for a 36-year-old, oft-injured third baseman.) If you want to say he’s an above-average player in 2022 based on OPS+ (101) or wRC+ (102) because offense is down for the league, well that’s bullshit. A player of Donaldson’s resume, salary and treatment shouldn’t be hovering around the league-average 100 line. He shouldn’t need to be defended and excused because “offense is down around the league.”

6. Again, I’m not upset with Donaldson. The trade was foolish the day it happened and looks even more foolish with the results of the players involved since: Donaldson has been awful, Kiner-Falefa has been awful and Ben Rortvedt has been hurt all year. I’m not defending Gio Urshela (who has been a better player than Donaldson in 2022 at one-fourth the cost) or Gary Sanchez. The Yankees could have moved both of those players in other deals. They chose to move them to acquire Donaldson and his $48 million and Kiner-Falefa, whose rarely capable of hitting the ball out of the infield. The money owed to Donaldson shouldn’t matter since we’re talking about the Yankees, but it does matter because we’re talking about the Hal Steinbrenner Yankees and Donaldson’s salary will hinder them at this trade deadline and for building the 2023 roster. The Yankees chose to pass on Carlos Correa, who is having an awesome season, and allowed the Twins to free up the money needed to sign Correa by absorbing Donaldson’s $48 million. Through one half of the season, the entire deal has been a disaster for the Yankees.

Maybe the second half of the season will be a different story. Maybe Donaldson won’t unnecessarily bat in the Top 5 in the order with a sub-.700 OPS. Maybe Kiner-Falefa will make the routine plays at shortstop and not create one (or two) outs on the first or second pitch of every at-bat. I’m not expecting either to turn it around as the season gets older (and Donaldson gets older with it). I expect Donaldson to lose playing time and at-bats to Carpenter. Well, I don’t expect it since we’re talking about the Yankees and reputation and money owed is more important than actual productions or wins, but I want Donaldson to lose playing time and at-bats to Carpenter.

7. As for Kiner-Falefa, I fear that the Yankees plan on him being the everyday shortstop for the rest of the season. They were willing to pass on every available free-agent shortstop to use Kiner-Falefa as a stopgap to either Oswald Peraza or Anthony Volpe. So unless the Yankees are willing to move Gleyber Torres back to short (they’re not) or play Marwin Gonzalez every day (they’re not) then the only option to upgrade at short is for Peraza (very unlikely) or Volpe (pretty much impossible) to force the Yankees to call them up. It’s unlikely for Peraza and nearly impossible for Volpe because the Yankees don’t want to rush either, and neither has had a season worthy of a major-league call-up. They have both been good of late, but they’re still seemingly not close to being the answer yet.

8. The Yankees could have an answer to one of the three automatic outs in their lineup in Estevan Florial. The 24-year-old outfielder is having a breakout season at Triple-A, finally putting it all together with a .905 OPS. He’s deserving of a call-up and of getting a chance in the majors.

The Yankees have been and will continue to be connected to the Royals’ Andrew Benintendi and the Cubs’ Ian Happ, but before needing to go out and deplete the farm even more to acquire an answer to Gallo after already trading away four pieces from the farm a year ago to acquire Gallo, Florial should get a chance. The answer could already be in the organization. A 24-year-old, left-handed-hitting center fielder, who the Yankees have been grooming and waiting on since 2015!

Call up Florial and play him every day for the remainder of July and see what you have. Even that’s not the greatest sample size of everyday playing time in the majors, but it’s better than the current situation of him hitting bombs in Triple-A while Gallo and Hicks strike out, ground out and pop up pitches in the majors.

9. The Yankees have two in-house fixes to ridding themselves of two automatic outs in the lineup by playing Carpenter regularly and calling up Florial. The only way to rid themselves of the third is for all Yankees fans to collectively pray that Peraza goes off for the next month in Triple-A the way Florial has of late and then the Yankees will be forced to try something other than letting Kiner-Falefa hit a weak ground ball to short on the first or second pitch of every at-bat of his.

Living with one automatic out in the lineup is doable. It’s not ideal, but it’s doable. It’s less doable than it was entering the season when Yankees fans thought they were getting a Gold Glove at short with a contact-approach bat in the 9-hole, since what Yankees fans got was a slight upgrade from Gleyber Torres at short with a weak-contact-only bat. But I guess it’s doable.

10. The Yankees buried the Red Sox in the AL East long ago. The Red Sox haven’t had a chance to win the division in months. Over the next 10 days, the Yankees can severely hurt the Red Sox’ playoff chances as well.

The Yankees will play the Red Sox four times this weekend and three times next weekend. The Red Sox’ pitching staff is in shambles, their bullpen sucks, and if you don’t let the Rafael Devers-J.D. Martinez-Xander Bogaerts trio beat you, the Red Sox won’t beat you.

If these Yankees want to avoid the possibility of being eliminated by the Red Sox in the postseason for the third time in five years, they can make sure the Red Sox don’t get to the postseason by beating up on them for the next two weekends and in their 16 remaining games against them this season.


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Yankees Thoughts: Extend Aaron Judge and Upgrade Roster to Beat Astros

The Yankees miraculously went 2-2 against the Astros in a four-game series in the Bronx. It took two late-game comebacks and two walk-off wins for the Yankees to avoid a disastrous sweep at the hands of the team that has eliminated them three times in their last six postseason appearances.

The Yankees miraculously went 2-2 against the Astros in a four-game series in the Bronx. It took two late-game comebacks and two walk-off wins for the Yankees to avoid a disastrous sweep at the hands of the team that has eliminated them three times in their last six postseason appearances.

Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.

1. The Yankees won two of the four games against the Astros, but it doesn’t feel like it. If not for the ninth-inning comeback on Thursday after getting no-hit for the previous seven innings, and the late-game comeback on Sunday after getting no-hit for the previous 6 1/3 innings, it would feel even worse. Thankfully, Aaron Judge is a Yankee (for now) and continues to have one of the best offensive seasons of all time, providing the Yankees with a walk-off single on Thursday and a walk-off, three-run home run on Sunday.

Judge “settled” in his arbitration case on Friday, though he essentially won. The Yankees met him halfway in their numbers at $19 million and gave him incentive bonuses that could be worth $500,000 more. So the complete value of his 2022 deal is closer to his filing number than the Yankees’.

The seven-year, $230 million extension offered prior to Opening Day was completely fair, and Judge was crazy to turn it down given his injury history and the likelihood of him having the type of season he’s having now. You have to be crazy to turn down nearly a quarter of a billion dollars given everything about his career to date, but he did, and at least through June 26, his enormous gamble is paying off. But he has a very long way to go. He has to stay healthy for the next three-plus months, which won’t be easy given his history. Fortunately, outside of last year’s debacle in which he needed time off after not traveling well despite the chartered planes and five-star hotels and amenities the Yankees are provided, he has avoided the injured list (where he lived from 2018 to 2020).

The Yankees need Judge for the immediate future. When healthy, he’s on the short list of the best players in baseball. The back end of Judge’s free-agent deal will most likely be extremely painful to watch. Every long-term position player deal ends up being one. You pay for the first few years of the deal, and deal with the last few years of it. For players like Mike Trout and Mookie Betts, their teams received a few years on the right side of 30 and more years of their prime in their extensions. The Yankees, whether through an extension or free agency, will be getting zero years of Judge’s 20s and less years of his prime. That’s why the Opening Day extension offer was fair.

The Yankees need Judge more than he needs them. There will always be some team and some owner looking to make a splash, like the Mariners did with Robinson Cano. The Yankees can easily give Judge the number he’s looking for and still be able to make ends meet. The bond holders Hal Steinbrenner likes to reference will still get their payments on time if the Yankees give Judge the highest average annual salary in the league.

The Yankees have to extend or re-sign Judge. Sure, he said he wouldn’t talk about an extension once the season started, but if the Yankees came to him with some over-the-top offer today, you bet your ass his fake preseason ultimatum will disappear. They have to re-sign him because there’s no alternative. Take Judge off the Yankees and where are they?

The Yankees’ window isn’t in four and five years when no one knows what Judge will be or how someone of his size and stature will age. Their window is now, when he’s at his peak and he and the rest of the Yankees’ core is still in their prime.

Maybe the Yankees’ plan is to let him hit free agency and see how the rest of the league values him, knowing they could (in theory) match any offer he receives. But once he becomes a free agent, the odds he signs with the Yankees drastically decrease.

I don’t care about what Judge will be in 2028. I care about what he will be in 2023, and that’s one of the best players in baseball who can help the Yankees win the World Series. That’s what the Yankees should care about as well.

2. Whether Judge is a Yankee in 2023 and beyond, to win the World Series in 2022 and beyond, the Yankees are going to need to solve the Astros. Going 2-2 against the Astros over the weekend is nice given how the poorly the Yankees’ offense was in all but like five innings in the four games.

On Thursday in the series opener, they got a three-run home run from Giancarlo Stanton in the first inning and then were no-hit until the ninth inning. On Friday, they scored one run on five hits. On Saturday, they were no-hit for the first time since 2003. On Sunday, they were no-hit for the first 6 1/3 innings. Here is how their hits by inning looks for the series:

2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 1

3. The “FUCK AL-TU-VE” chants at Jose Altuve and “CHEAT-ER” chants at Altuve and Alex Bregman aren’t working. I wish they were, but they aren’t. They’re not even close to working. If anything, it seems like they make those two even better.

Altuve reached base four times in the first game of the series, hit a home run in the Astros’ no-hitter win and then led off Sunday’s game with a home run. He hit .357/.526/.929 and reached base 10 of his 19 plate appearances in the series with four extra-base hits and four runs scored.

Bregman has had an atrocious season and entered the series with a .743 OPS. All he did at Yankee Stadium was hit .308/.500/.615, reaching base in eight of his 18 plate appearances with a pair of extra-base hits.

4. The Astros aren’t scared of the Yankees, and after going 0-3 on the road in the 2017 ALCS, admitting how intimidating the Stadium was, that no longer seems to be the case.

Why should the Astros be scared of the Yankees? They eliminated them in 2015, 2017 and 2019. They have reached the ALCS in five straight years and the World Series in three of the those five. No team should be scared of the Yankees. As an organization, they haven’t reached or won the World Series in going on 13 years. As a group, these Yankees have accomplished nothing. They have won a lot of regular-season games, set a bunch of home run records and are now trying to set a single-season wins record. None of that has or will mean anything once the second season starts. The Astros made that clear this weekend.

The Yankees should be scared of the Astros. As a fan, I am. The Yankees could win 125 games during the regular season and no fan could possibly feel comfortable or confident in a series against the Astros.

Framber Valdez no-hit the Yankees after a first-inning, three-run home run. Justin Verlander had his all-too-familiar dominating performance against them. Christian Javier no-hit them. Jose Urquidy, who has been a disappointment this season no-hit them for 6 1/3 innings. What happens when Lance McCullers Jr. (who absolutely owns them) comes back? What happens when they go out and acquire Frankie Montas or Luis Castillo at the trade deadline? And you know they’re adding someone or someones at the deadline. They always do. In 2017 it was Verlander. In 2018 it was Gerrit Cole. In 2019 it was Zack Greinke. In 2021, it was Kendall Graveman. The Astros are only going to get better.

I don’t know that the Yankees will get better. Ownership didn’t make a single move at the 2019 deadline for a team that went on to win 103 games and then had no starting pitching to get a through a seven-game series against … the Astros. They didn’t make a move at the 2020 deadline either. It’s not a given the Yankees are going to go out and upgrade ht roster pots they desperately need to upgrade.

5. I have always planned on having Jameson Taillon out of the rotation for the postseason and his tart on Thursday solidified my opinion. The Yankees are most likely to see the Red Sox, Rays or Blue Jays in the ALDS. While he has pitched well against the Rays and Blue Jays, I still wouldn’t trust him in a postseason games against those teams and in no way would i trust him against the Rafael Devers-J.D. Martinez-Xander Bogaerts Red Sox trio. Under no circumstance could he ever possibly start a playoff game against the Astros.

I have joked that Taillon is Phil Hughes 2.0. He short arms the ball like Hughes, he can’t put away hitters with two strikes like Hughes and he even kind of looks like Hughes. Sure, he limits walks like Hughes, but that’s the only truly good thing he does.

Entering his start on Thursday, Taillon had stranded the most runners in baseball. That’s called a recipe for disaster. Eventually, regression will hit and those runners will become runs. On Thursday, that regression happened.

Taillon allowed 11 baserunners in 5 2/3 innings and six of them scored. He gave up four doubles and two home runs and the Astros’ 1 through 5 in Altuve, Michael Brantley, Bregman, Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker clobbered him, going 9-for-14 with all six of the Astros’ run and all six of their RBIs. It’s a good thing reigning batting champion Yuli Gurriel is still lost at the plate or the Astros’ vaunted 1 through5 would be their vaunted 1 through 6.

6. Aaron Hicks’ game-tying, three-run home run on Thursday night was one of the Top 4 moments of his career. The other three are his 2017 ALDS home run off Corey Kluber, his 2019 catch against the Twins and his 2019 ALCS home run off Verlander. That’s it. That’s the list. That home run saved Hicks from being in the next few thoughts with a trio of Yankees that have had very little to do with the team’s success this season.

7. Josh Donaldson had one hit in the series and struck out five more times in 12 plate appearances. The “Is he washed up or just slumping?” debate is leaning heavily in favored of washed up. The season is 45 precent complete. After next Tuesday’s game, the season will be half over. When exactly is he going to show up for this season?

Donaldson has played in 18 games in June and has struck out at least once in all but one of them. His at-bats aren’t even competitive. It’s not like he’ striking out after a lengthy seven- or eight-pitch battle. If he doesn’t ground out pop up on one of the first two pitches, he usually strikes out in three or four pitches. He has been absolutely horrible as a Yankee.

8. If Joey Gallo is wearing a Yankees uniform on August 2, Brian Cashman is truly an asshole, praying and hoping to salvage the smallest bit of positivity in a trade that was an abject failure. Gallo went 0-for-7 with four strikeouts against the Astros. He’s 0-for-his-last-17 now with 10 strikeouts. He last homered three weeks ago this Thursday. He last got a hit 10 days ago. He went from being the Yankees’ 2-hitter upon the trade for him lat year to becoming the team’s 9-hitter this year to becoming a platoon player to getting pinch hit for by the catcher two weeks ago to now being unplayable. the Yankees traded four prospects for a player who is healthy and just sat on the bench in two of their four biggest regular-season games of the year.

9. Are there still Isiah Kiner-Falefa fans out there? The homer-less Kiner-Falefa looked overmatched against the pitching staff of the team the Yankees need to overcome to win a championship, pitches and hits. Then on Sunday in the 10th inning with the automatic runner on, he booted a routine grounder to give the Astros two on with no one out in extra innings. At one point in the series, Kiner-Falefa went 0-for-4 on six pitches, as his goal continues to be to make a soft contact out as quickly as possible.

10. The Yankees are going to the postseason. The Astros are going to the postseason. They will be the 1 and 2 seeds in the American League postseason, and so they won’t be able to meet until the ALCS. If they do meet there for the third time in six years, the Yankees need to be better equipped than they currently are to play them in a seven-game series. Counting on frequent eighth- and ninth-inning comebacks would be like continuing to count on Donaldson, Gallo and Kiner-Falefa.


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