The Yankees beat the Guardians 8-6 in Game 4 of the ALCS to take a 3-1 series lead.

Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.

1. A four-run lead over the 2024 Guardians should be an automatic win. Their offense isn’t any good, finishing seventh-best in the American League. They were shut out in two of five games against the Tigers in the ALDS. They scored five runs total in the first two games of this ALCS. They have no depth, two of the worst regular bats in the league in their lineup and feature one true star. They are built around making contact, putting the ball in play, bloop and infield hits, stealing bases and their league-best bullpen. And when you get to that league-best bullpen and have a 6-2 lead with 12 outs to go, that should be more than enough to secure a win.

It wasn’t.

“No lead is safe,” Giancarlo Stanton said after Game 4. Well, some leads should be. The Yankees’ lead in Game 4 should have been, if not for their manager.

2. A day after the Yankees got to the best reliever in the game for three runs, they got to the best setup man in the game for three more. In a game in which Aaron Boone managed like it was a getaway day game at the end of a long road trip in August, Stephen Vogt managed like he had never managed a game before. With runners on second and third and one out and Stanton due up against Cade Smith in the sixth, Vogt decided to let Smith face Stanton. The alternative was to intentionally walk Stanton and bring in the dominant left-handed Tim Herrin to face Anthony Rizzo with the bases loaded. Vogt let Smith pitch to Stanton and Stanton made him pay, hitting a mammoth three-run home run to left-center field to extend the Yankees lead from 3-2 to 6-2, passing Babe Ruth in home runs per postseason at-bats in the process. After the home run, Vogt went to Herrin, and he struck out Rizzo.

It was a foolish mistake. A mistake that can’t happen in October. But it was a mistake made by the Guardians manager. I don’t care about the Guardians. I care about the Yankees, and the Yankees manager made enough mistakes in Game 4.

3. Boone’s litany of mistakes began with removing Luis Gil after four innings. When you know you have limited options in the bullpen and that your elite relief options are exhausted, you can’t only get four innings from your starting pitcher. How are they going to get 15 outs? I thought after Gil was removed.

“We had a long way to go to the finish line, and frankly, I wasn’t quite sure how we were going to get there,” Boone said.

Oh, you weren’t sure where you were getting five innings of outs from your bullpen from? You had me fooled!

In a vacuum, removing Gil when he did made sense because the top of the order was due up for a third time and the top of the order had plated both Guardians runs the first two times they faced Gil. But the postseason isn’t operated in vacuum, and by removing Gil and asking the bullpen to get five innings worth of outs, the path to victory would be littered with obstacles.

The first arm out of the bullpen was Tim Hill for the fifth to preserve a one-run lead. Fine move. Hill has become at worst the Yankees’ fourth-best reliever. He got through the top of the order on 17 pitches.

I would have gone back to Hill for the sixth given the supposed limited resources available, but Boone decided to go with Jake Cousins. OK. Cousins was good for the Yankees all season and had only appeared in one postseason game to date. He’s rested and when he’s on, he’s great. By the time Cousins entered, Stanton had hit the home run off of Smith, so Cousins wasn’t going into the high-leverage situation Hill was faced with — preserving a one-run lead against the top of the order — as he would be facing 5-6-7 with a four-run lead. Cousins pitched around two baserunners to keep it a four-run game. Nine outs to go.

How would Boone get those nine outs? You would have to think both Clay Holmes and Luke Weaver would be unavailable after having pitched in every postseason game to date and after having been lit up the night before. You would think Tommy Kahnle would be asked to pitch at least the ninth, and if only given the ninth, who would get the other six outs?

Boone sent Cousins back out for the seventh and it was immediately first and third with no outs. A jam, sure, but with a four-run lead, the lead couldn’t be blown with one swing of the bat. With two on, no one out and the Guardians’ 2-3-4 hitters due up, Boone called on Holmes.

4. Why Holmes against the heart of the order? It must have been because Weaver was unavailable. Except he wasn’t. Weaver ended up warming up in the ninth. So if Weaver was actually available, why not Weaver or Kahnle in that spot against 2-3-4 than Holmes?

Aside from Holmes’ strong ALDS and his appearances in Games 1 and 2 of the ALCS, he had been a disaster for months, culminating in his removal from the closer role right before Labor Day. He had unraveled just over 24 hours earlier when he took the loss in Game 3, throwing middle-middle sinkers, whether because of the reversion to his regular-season self or exhaustion from his postseason workload. Cousins had thrown 27 pitches in the game, typically a lot for a three-to-four-out reliever, but he also had pitched once in three weeks. He would never be more rested.

Again, in a vacuum, it made sense to take Cousins out, but a vacuum doesn’t account for the options remaining: an exhausted Holmes and Weaver, a pitcher who wasn’t on the ALDS roster and was just added to the postseason roster that morning in Mark Leiter Jr. and a pitcher who also wasn’t on the ALDS roster and hasn’t been good since May in Marcus Stroman. And those seemed to be the only options because Boone was married to Kahnle in the ninth, idiotically managing for set innings rather than the situation at hand. This is why Gil should have stayed and/or Hill should have thrown more than one inning.

If Boone was willing to use Holmes in the seventh, why didn’t he just start the seventh, clean with no one on? Was Boone trying to steal outs yet again? You bet he was. He said as much after the game, saying he wanted to see if he could “steal a couple of outs” with Cousins. We’re in the seventh year of Boone managing this way.

Holmes looked every bit as bad as he did the night before and really since mid-May. He allowed back-to-back doubles to Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor and walked Lane Thomas. He faced four batters and three reached. He allowed both of his inherited runners from Cousins to score and gave up a run of his own. A truly remarkable performance. When he left the mound, the 6-2 lead had become a 6-5 lead.

Leiter Jr. relieved Holmes. Brian Cashman’s prized pitching deadline pickup pitched to a 4.98 ERA in 21 appearances with the Yankees, allowing six home runs and 39 baserunners in 21 2/3 innings. He was left off of both the ALDS and ALCS rosters, and had just been added hours earlier due to a calf injury for Ian Hamilton.

Leiter Jr. entered with the Yankees clinging to a one-run lead with runners on first and second and one out and Game 3 hero Jhonkensy Noel due up. Noel hit a ball off Leiter Jr. that the camera led you to believe was going to clear Progressive Field and Lake Erie and land in Canada. Instead, it was caught at the wall by Alex Verdugo. Leiter Jr. got the two remaining outs of the inning to hold the lead at 6-5.

The lead was still 6-5 when Boone sent Leiter Jr. back out for the eighth. After a leadoff double to the light-hitting Bo Naylor, Leiter Jr. got two outs before allowing the tying run to score on a defensive disaster between he and Rizzo on a ball back to the mound.

5. At the time, the game felt over. The Guardians were going to pitch Emmanuel Clase in the ninth, and likely the 10th as well and the Yankees had no one left to turn to except for Kahnle. How would they prevent the Guardians from scoring for multiple innings until Clase was removed because certainly after his Game 3 meltdown, there was no way he was going to be anything other than unhittable like he was for six months.

As expected, Vogt went to Clase, and Rizzo, one of the goats from the eighth-inning defensive miscue, greeted him with a single. Jon Berti pinch ran for Rizzo and raced to third on a line-drive single by Anthony Volpe. (Volpe also had a big hit off Clase in Cleveland in April. Volpe has a knack for getting hits off some of the game’s best relievers. In this postseason, he has looked as good as he did for the first two weeks of the regular season before becoming an automatic out for the next six months. Where has this version of Volpe been since the second week of April?) Berti scored on a Guardians-like infield roller from Verdugo and Volpe scored after Gleyber Torres lined another base hit off of Clase. The Yankees had gotten to Clase on back-to-back nights and had built a two-run lead off of him. But they still needed to get three outs.

6. Boone went to Kahnle for the ninth. Kahnle had finished his work in Game 2 of the series with four straight changeups. In Game 3, he threw 26 pitches, all changeups. He had thrown 30 straight changeups to Guardians hitters and they had nothing to show for it. They would be hunting the pitch in the ninth inning of Game 4.

Kahnle got a favorable strike 3 call to sit down Thomas on six straight changeups, but walked Noel on six more changeups. Andres Gimenez floated the second straight changeup he saw from Kahnle into the outfield to put runners on and first and second with one out. Bo Naylor flew out on the first pitch — a changeup — he saw and Kahnle got Brayan Rocchio to hit a ground ball to second on the third pitch of his at-bat (which featured only changeups). Berti, now playing second, booted the ball initially, but recovered to throw out Rocchio and end the game. Kahnle threw 18 pitches, all changeups. Adding to his Games 2 and 3 totals, he has now thrown 44 straight changeups to the Guardians and they have failed to score.

7. “Obviously last night was a really though loss,” Boone said. “Whatever happened today — win, lose or draw — there’s no doubt in my mind we’d come out ready to roll.”

(Boone does know you can’t “draw” in baseball, right? What are you talking about?)

The Yankees came out ready to roll thanks to Juan Soto who gave the Yankees a 2-0 lead before an out was recorded with a first-inning home run. Each win this postseason means another game of Soto in pinstripes. I’m not ready for his time as a Yankee to end. I never want it to end. Like I have written many times in these Thoughts this season, if he’s not a Yankee in 2025, I will have to retire from the game. A clean break. It’s been a good three-plus decades. If he’s not a Yankee in 2025 and beyond though, I won’t be around to watch. I will learn an instrument or a new language or do whatever people who don’t watch baseball daily from late-March through October do.

8. The Yankees are one win away from the World Series. It’s the furthest any team during Boone’s tenure has gone, surpassing their previous-best of being two wins away in the 2019 ALCS.

“As far as I’m concerned, we haven’t done nothing,” Stanton said. “We’ve got to get it done tomorrow and on to the next.”

Stanton has always said the right thing as a Yankee. His Yankees career has been frustrating due to the unbelievable amount of injuries and missed games, only made more frustrating by seeing what he’s capable of when healthy, like we have seen this October. He’s right, the Yankees haven’t done anything. Being up 3-1 doesn’t guarantee you anything. Just ask Ramirez, whose Guardians were up 3-1 in the 2016 World Series and held a lead in Game 5 before losing that game and the next two and the World Series.

Stanton needs to be batting cleanup for the rest of the postseason. I don’t care who is starting for the opposition and what arm they throw with. Stop forcing lefties into the lineup to separate Judge and Stanton. It was bad enough when Boone was doing it for years with Brett Gardner and Aaron Hicks, and it was equally bad when he stuck with Wells in that spot for all of September and the first seven postseason games. It’s inexplicable that now Jazz Chisholm is there.

9. Carlos Rodon needs to be great in Game 5, the way he was in Game 1. End the series in five and get five days off. Don’t send it to a Game 6 and don’t send it back to New York. A Game 6 takes Gerrit Cole out of the equation for Game 1 of the World Series on Friday.

I don’t know what Boone’s plan is for the non-Rodon outs in Game 5. Weaver is the only non-Stroman reliever not named Tim Mayza who didn’t pitch in Game 4. I would think he would be available for six outs, especially if the Yankees lead and a win allows them five days off. I think at best Rodon can give six innings since he has pitched seven innings once (July 22) since mid-June. Maybe he will surprise us. Maybe he will earn some more of that $162 million and go seven and hand it off to Weaver for the last two.

10. “This team always bounces back and answers the right way,” Judge said. “This was definitely a big win.”

Of course it was a big win. It’s the difference between now needing to win one of three games to go to the World Series or having Rodon start with the possibility of trailing in the series with a Game 5 loss. As for Judge’s comment about the team “always bouncing back,” umm, do you not remember mid-June to early September?

With one more win, we can all forget about mid-June to early September. With five more wins, we can all finally heal from the Boone era. We can somewhat forgive Boone for the last six years of ineptitude and Cashman for the billions of dollars and thousands of games and hours wasted over the last 15 years.

Six down, five to go.

The Yankees dropped their first game of the ALCS in a 7-5, 10-inning loss to the Guardians.

Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.

1. One out away. One out away from a 3-0 series lead in the ALCS. That’s what the Yankees were until they weren’t.

After staging an improbable comeback off the so-called best closer in baseball with an Aaron Judge two-run home run, the Yankees then took the lead off that closer when Giancarlo Stanton followed with a home run of his own. The Yankees were six outs away from being a win away from the World Series.

Those six outs became one when Luke Weaver turned a 1-4-3 double play in the ninth. But after a long double high off the tall left-center wall from Lane Thomas, the 23-year-old pinch-hitting rookie Jhonkensy Noel destroyed a 1-0 changeup, sending it deep into the Cleveland night to tie the game. Up two with two outs and no one on in the bottom of the ninth turned into a tie game.

It was a stunning moment. A true moment of disbelief. But the Yankees still had a chance to put the Guardians on the brink of elimination. They would just have to do something they have never done in the Aaron Boone era: win an extra-inning postseason game.

2. They had their chance. They put two on in the 10th, but stranded them both. And once that happened every Yankees fan knew they were in trouble. The only arms left in the bullpen were Clay Holmes, Jake Cousins and Marcus Stroman. And if the bullpen was able to send it to the 11th, Alex Verdugo and Austin Wells would be due up. After failing to win in the 10th, the Yankees’ next best chance of winning would be if the game would last until a 12th inning.

It didn’t.

Holmes got the ball for the 10th and allowed a leadoff single. After retiring the next two batters he threw a sinker that sunk in the middle of the strike zone and David Fry hit it a mile for a two-run, walk-off home run. Like Weaver, Holmes had been so good in the postseason. But unfortunately for the duo, the clock struck midnight on their impressive run over the last two weeks.

“A loss is a loss,” Stanton said. “An L is an L. By one, two, eight, whatever.”

3. Game 3 was a game of reversion. Weaver reverted into the guy from late June to mid-August who was bitten by the long ball. Holmes reverted into the guy who led the league in blown saves and spent the summer creating spectacular meltdowns. Wells continued his reversion into the early-season version of himself striking out on high fastballs yet again in his only two plate appearances. Anthony Volpe, who has looked so shockingly good this October, reverted back into his regular-season self in his 10th-inning plate appearance, chasing pitches out of the zone (something he hadn’t done all postseason until then) with a chance to give the Yankees an extra-inning lead. Anthony Rizzo reverted back into the untrustworthy glove he was from Opening Day through mid-June when he got hurt. Clarke Schmidt reverted back into the pitcher who can’t get lefties out and can’t provide any length. Aaron Judge reverted back into his MVP self with his two-run home run off Clase. Stanton reverted back into his old self by hitting that home run off Clase and by being able to foul off 100-mph fastballs to extend the at-bat to hit the home run. And for all the praise Boone has received this postseason for “pushing the right buttons,” he managed the game like it was the 13th game in 13 day in the middle of June, reverting back into the manager we have grown to know over seven years.

4. To an outsider, Boone’s bullpen decisions were as stunning as Noel’s home run. To Yankees fans who have watched his every move since Opening Day 2018, they were the norm. Going to Tim Mayza in the sixth inning of a one-run game in the postseason? Alarming, but not shocking. Staying with for a second inning after he allowed a run to score? Appalling, but unsurprising. Allowing Mayza to put the leadoff guy on in that second before going to Tommy Kahnle? Irresponsible, but expected. If Boone was willing to use Kahnle in the seventh inning, why didn’t he just let him start the inning clean? Why did he try to steal an out and steal it with Mayza of all pitchers? Thankfully, Kahnle did his job and then some, getting five outs across the seventh and eighth innings by throwing 26 pitches, all of which were changeups.

5. At some point Weaver and Holmes were going to get dinged up. The duo has appeared in all seven postseason games. It’s unsustainable and also unfair to ask them to get stressful, high-leverage outs every single game against the same most feared bats of a series opponent over and over. At some point the Yankees need to win a game that doesn’t have everyone on the edge of their seat up until the final out. But with the offense being so inconsistent and so top heavy and so incapable of hitting with runners in scoring position, there won’t be any easy wins.

6. The Yankees don’t make anything easy with their baserunning either. After taking an early 1-0 lead in the second inning in Game 3 on an unlikely RBI single from Jose Trevino, Trevino’s big hit was undone by his foolish mistake of getting picked off of first base. It didn’t even take two full innings for the Yankees’ idiotic baserunning to rear its ugly head. I think I’ll let the call from John Sterling and Suzyn Waldman on the play take it from here:

John: “The throw … and they picked off the runner. How do you like that?

Suzyn: “Again.”

John: “Shortstop runs him back … first baseman makes the tag … Where was Trevino going? I’m amazed. I said they had to play a clean game, already it’s dirty.”

Suzyn: “This has been a problem for the Yankees. Someone’s just not paying attention.”

John: “Oh that’s awful and also because Trevino is really slow. Where is he running to?”

No one makes outs on the bases like the Yankees. In the ninth, Volpe was on first and Alex Verdugo hit a ball into the second-base hole. Volpe rounded second thinking he was going to go first to third with ease, but not thinking that the Gold Glover Andres Gimenez was playing second. Gimenez had kept the ball in the infield and the Guardians had Volpe in a rundown between second and third. Fortunately, Jose Ramirez dropped the ball in the rundown when trying to tag Volpe at third and he ended up being safe. Verdugo was able to reach second on the play and Gleyber Torres followed by sacrifice flying Volpe in to give the Yankees a much-needed insurance run. Or so we thought.

7. The Yankees are going to need more than relying on late-game home run heroics to win. If they are going to be so sloppy on the bases and so sloppy on defense then they are going to need to start getting hits with runners in scoring position. In Game 3, they were another abysmal 1-for-8.

So far in October, the Yankees’ wins have been aided by bases-loaded walks (ALDS Game 1), Stanton heroics (ALDS Game 3), the Kansas City wind (ALDS Game 4), wild pitches (ALCS Game 1) and errors (ALCS Game 2). When their crappy AL Central opponents aren’t booting balls, throwing 57-foot pitches and the Midwest wind isn’t swirling, it hasn’t been enough. The offense hasn’t been good and the starting rotation has been a debacle with just two good starts (ALDS Game 4 and ALCS Game 1) through seven games.

The Yankees still control the series. They are still in a much better place than the Guardians. They have the series lead. They have the better offense. They have the better rotation. If Weaver is compromised then so is Clase. The Yankees have the starting pitching advantage in Game 4.

8. Luis Gil hasn’t started since September 28. He has pitched 11 innings since September 17. Hopefully, the layoff has given him time to rest and improve on the fatigue he was experiencing down the stretch. But on the other end of that hope is the fact that Gil hasn’t done well when pitching after extended layoffs. There’s also the fear he will be so amped up to make his postseason debut that he will overthrow early, miss his spots and issue free passes the way Luis Severino did in the 2017 wild-card game. Even still, Gil is a much better Game 4 option than the Guardians’ Gavin Williams, who also hasn’t pitched since September 22 and has thrown 10 2/3 innings since September 17.

9. The Yankees had created their moment in Game 3 and it slipped away. The type of moment that propels a team to a pennant. The last time the Yankees won the pennant, they had that moment in Game 2 of the ALDS when Alex Rodriguez tied the game in the bottom of the ninth against Joe Nathan before winning on a Mark Teixeira walk-off home run in the 11th. They had a second moment in Game 2 of that season’s ALCS when Rodriguez again came through, hitting a game-tying home run off Brian Fuentes. Let’s hope their moment ends up being Game 4 and that Game 3 doesn’t end up being the Guardians’ moment.

“Thankfully, this wasn’t Game 7,” Rizzo said. “This is a series.”

10. The Yankees can put an end to the Guardians’ and city of Cleveland’s season-saving celebration that is taking place as you’re reading this and will continue all the way until the first pitch of Game 4. The celebration needs to end before the series is tied. Game 4 is the difference between putting the Guardians on the brink and turning the ALCS into a best-of-3. It’s the difference between needing to win one of three to advance to the World Series and needing Carlos Rodon to come up big to avoid leaving Cleveland trailing in the series.

The Yankees were oh so close to being six down with five to go. Instead, it’s still five down with six to go.

1. The same situation. That’s what the Yankees had and Aaron Judge faced in the first inning of Game 2 of the ALCS. Gleyber Torres on second, Juan Soto on first and no outs. A chance to break open a game as soon as it started.

The same situation took place in Game 1 of the ALDS, Game 2 of the ALDS and Game 1 of the ALCS and each time the Yankees failed to capitalize. Between Judge, Austin Wells and Giancarlo Stanton, Torres and Soto were stranded all three times. In Game 2 of the ALCS, Judge failed to get the job done again, but Gold Glove finalist Brayan Rocchio did it for him.

2. Judge popped up the second pitch he saw from Tanner Bibee and as I looked up in the Bronx sky to track it, it was so high it looked like it may leave the atmosphere. I glanced back to the field to watch Rocchio try to position himself to catch it, battling the wind and shuffling his feet toward second base. The crowd’s roar began to ascend as the ball began to descend and after what felt like minutes of hang time, the ball hit the side of Rocchio’s glove and Torres raced home, Soto ran to second and Judge stood on first. The Yankees had a 1-0 lead, still had two on with no outs and Bibee had already thrown 11 pitches.

Would this be the game the Yankees broke the game open in the first inning and coasted to their first lopsided victory of the postseason? It would not. Wells struck out and Stanton flew out to right.

Leaving baserunners on has become a staple of the Yankees’ postseason. They seemingly have multiple baserunners in every inning of every game and fail to cash in unless runs are walked in or there are wild pitches and errors. They’re still waiting for that big hit. That big hit that can create separation on the scoreboard and take some of the pressure off of their starting pitcher.

3. The Yankees didn’t necessarily get the big hit for Gerrit Cole in Game 2, but they did stake him to a 3-0 lead and he couldn’t make it through the fifth inning. Cole unraveled in the fifth inning, loaded the bases without recording an out, allowed a run on a sacrifice fly and reloaded the bases. Four of the five batters he reached in the fifth reached as he allowed 10 baserunners in 4 1/3 innings.

“I lost a little bit of the zone,” Cole said, “a few too many walks again.”

It was a putrid performance from the Yankees’ “ace” and his second performance like that in the postseason. A three-run lead against the Guardians offense should be enough for Cole to give his team at least six innings. Leaving in the fifth after being unable to get an out in the sixth in Game 1 of the ALDS doesn’t exactly exude confidence in Cole if the Yankees reach the World Series to face the Dodgers’ or Mets’ offense. Thankfully, for Cole, that Kyle Isbel ball died on the track in the seventh inning of Game 4 of the ALDS in Kansas City, or the Yankees may not still be playing and the conversation around being unable to perform in the playoffs would be focused on Cole and not Judge.

4. Judge finally hit a ball over the wall in his sixth game of the 2024 playoffs, sending a two-run shot to Monument Park in the seventh inning off of Pedro Avila.

“I was excited it went out,” Judge said. “You never know on these windy, chilly nights what the ball is going to do when you hit it to center here. The ghosts were pulling it out there to Monument Park, that’s for sure.”

The two runs were two much-needed insurance runs as the Yankees’ lead had dwindled from three to one and back up to two before that home run.

“It’s always a matter of time with Aaron,” said Boone. “It’s definitely good to see him put one in the seats and really give us a cushion there.”

It was the first “game-opening” hit of the postseason for the Yankees as it put them up four with six outs to go.

5. Those six outs came from Tommy Kahnle and Luke Weaver. Kahnle got seven outs in the game in relief of Tim Hill, who got five. Hill was the unsung hero of the game, getting his five crucial outs across the sixth and seventh innings. When he entered the game, the Guardians had cut their deficit to one run and Hill kept it right there, allowing the Yankees to increase that deficit to two in the sixth and four in the seventh. The White Sox release the 34-year-old, left-handed Hill on June 18 and the Yankees signed him on June 20. He pitched to a 2.05 ERA across 35 games in the regular season for the Yankees and has gotten nine big outs in the playoffs so far.

6. The bullpen as a whole has been outstanding in October, especially Clay Holmes, and obviously, Luke Weaver. Holmes has been pitching like the guy Aaron Boone and the Yankees didn’t want to remove from the closer role all season despite the mounting blown saves. Weaver has pitched like Mariano Rivera 2.0. The only blemish from either has been the solo home run that Jose Ramirez hit off of Weaver in the ninth inning in Game 2, which served as a harmless, meaningless run. Well, unless that’s the swing Ramirez needed to get going. But if it is, hopefully Judge’s home run was the swing needed to get him going, which would negate Ramirez starting hit like he’s capable of.

7. Jazz Chisholm picked up his first hit since his “lucky” comments following Game 2 of the ALDS. Anthony Volpe added a pair of hits and also walked as he has looked like the player of the first two weeks of the regular season that then disappeared for the rest of the regular season. Torres had three hits, Anthony Rizzo had two and Alex Verdugo had an RBI double. Only two Yankees failed to get a hit: Stanton, who is more than excused, and Wells, who again, needs to be removed from the cleanup spot.

8. I understand Aaron Boone is superstitious in not wanting to change the batting order while the team is winning, but Wells batting cleanup isn’t why they are winning. Hopefully, Wells is moved down in the lineup in Game 3 (if he plays) and until further notice, considering he has been abysmal since the end of August.

9. Clarke Schmidt gets the ball in Game 3 against veteran left-hander Matthew Boyd. Boyd didn’t allow a run in 6 2/3 innings over two starts against the Tigers in the ALDS and racked up 10 strikeouts. But that was the Tigers. Judge has a home run off Boyd in six plate appearances, Soto has one off of him in two and Volpe has a double off of him in two plate appearances, so the Yankees have had success against him in limited opportunities.

10. “We’ll got there and try to play like we didn’t do anything here,” Torres said, “just the same mentality.”

The Yankees have yet to play to the best of their abilities in the postseason, and they’re 5-1. They haven’t been hitting the ball out of the park with any frequency, leave nearly every baserunner on, have gotten two good starts from the rotation in six games and are running into outs on the bases. It would be welcoming to see what they’re capable of when they’re hitting with runners on, getting strong starting pitching and not making foolish baserunning mistakes.

After living through and attending the 2004 ALCS, I would never say a win in Game 3 in Cleveland would mean the series is over, but the 2024 Guardians aren’t the 2004 Red Sox, and a win in Game 3 would put the Yankees one win away from winning the pennant. The last time they were that close to winning the pennant was in 2017. The last time they won the pennant was 2009. Two down, two to go in the ALCS. Five down, six to go overall.

Carlos Rodon lived up to his ability and the Yankees beat the Guardians 5-2 in Game 1 of the ALCS.

Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.

1. The Yankees gave Carlos Rodon a six-year, $162 million deal to pitch the way he did in Game 1 of the ALCS. (They also gave him all of that money to pitch well in the ALDS, but we can forget about that for now.) Rodon completely stifled the Guardians for five innings and left the game after allowing just one run on three hits over six innings.

“The goal was to just stay in control of what I can do, physically and emotionally,” Rodon said. “I thought I executed that well tonight.”

Rodon sounded like a completely different person from the pitcher who last week talked about his upcoming Yankees postseason debut and how he will control his emotions by saying, “It can propel me to very high highs and super low lows” and then followed that comment by acting maniacal on the mound.

Game 1 of the ALCS was the kind of performance every Yankees fan hoped to see in Rodon’s start in Game 2 of the ALDS, but Rodon was so emotionally, physically and mentally unstable in that outing that he let his stuff he described as “electric” fade once the slightest bit of adversity hit. In Game 1 of the ALCS, he kept his composure, didn’t walk around the infield after each strikeout with the demeanor and attitude of a professional wrestler, got 25 swings and misses and pitched the Yankees to a 1-0 series lead.

“He was very aware of what the last outing ended up being, how the emotions got away from him early,” Matt Blake said. “You could tell he was trying to stay steady and be neutral about it and just keep collecting outs.”

2. Rodon collected 18 outs and the Yankees’ offense clogged the base paths to score three of their five runs. No one loves traffic more than Aaron Boone and the Yankees’ offense made the bases look like the West Side Highway at 5:00 on a Friday against Alex Cobb and the Guardians’ bullpen. The Yankees put two on in the first, two on in the second, five on in the third and two on in the fourth. But the same way the Yankees failed to hit with runners in scoring position in the ALDS (and the same way they have failed to hit with runners in scoring position in every postseason of the last 15 years), they failed to do so again in Game 1.

Thank God for Juan Soto, Giancarlo Stanton and wild pitches. Soto gave the Yankees a 1-0 lead with a solo home run to lead off the third. It was the most predictable home run of all time as Soto entered the game 7-for-11 in his career against Cobb and then proceeded to single and homer off the righty.

“I was just locked in on that pitch,” Soto said of his home run. “He showed me the pitch three times, so I thought he wanted to get that pitch and land it, and I was ready for it.”

The Yankees managed to score two runs on wild pitches in the third as well, plated a fourth run on an Aaron Judge sacrifice fly in the fourth and added a fifth when Stanton hit a long home run off the back wall of the Guardians’ bullpen in the seventh.

Through five postseason games, the Yankees are still searching for that big hit that blows open a game. In Game 1 of the ALDS, they used bases-loaded walks to beat the Royals, lost Game 2 when they left a small village on base, won Game 3 on the back of Stanton and won Game 4 with only three runs. On Monday, they needed two wild pitches in the same inning to increase their one-run lead to three. I don’t know how much longer they can rely on odd and unusual ways to score runs and win games and I don’t want to find out.

3. Game 1 never felt in doubt. Not when Judge, Austin Wells and Stanton left Gleyber Torres and Soto on in the first. Not when the Yankees stranded two more in the second. Certainly not after the Yankees jumped out to a 3-0 lead in the third, made it 4-0 in the fourth and 5-1 after seven. But after all of the missed opportunities throughout the game (the Yankees were 0-for-7 with runners in scoring position), there was something in the back of my mind telling me they may regret it. Because through seven innings, it felt easy. A little too easy.

4. Boone made sure it wouldn’t be easy. After Rodon gave him six innings of one-run ball and Clay Holmes mowed down the middle of the order on 14 pitches in the seventh, the pitching formula and plan was unfolding exactly as desired: Rodon for six then Holmes, Tommy Kahnle and Luke Weaver each for one. Unfortunately, Boone deviated from the plan.

With a four-run lead and six outs to go, Boone decided to not go to Kahnle for the eighth, opting instead for Tim Hill. Why? I wish I knew. Actually, I’m glad I don’t know since I don’t want to know what goes on in the head of Boone when he makes decisions like that. It could have been because the Yankees had a four-run lead instead of a three-run lead. It could have been because Boone wanted to try to steal outs with Hill in Game 1, so he could have an even-more-rested Kahnle in Game 2. Whatever the reason, it was foolish, and for the first time all night, the Guardians had life.

5. Hill allowed three consecutive one-out singles and a run to score before being pulled. When he left the mound, the Guardians had runners at first and third and one out. They would have the chance to cut their now three-run deficit even more, and barring a double play, would have two cracks at tying the game with one swing with one of those cracks going to Jose Ramirez.

Boone’s plan blew up because he couldn’t then go to Kahnle to relieve Hill. Not with the Guardians threatening with the tying run at the plate. Now he had to go to his best arm in Weaver to get six outs instead of the planned three. Weaver stranded the two baserunners, retired Ramirez and pitched around a leadoff walk in the ninth to close out the game and save Boone from what could have been a disastrous loss to open the series. Boone needs to be better. He was able to get away with that decision because it’s the Guardians. If the Yankees are to advance, a decision like that against the Dodgers or Mets could be the season. Boone needs to change his thinking quickly.

6. He also needs to change the lineup for Game 2. Austin Wells can’t bat cleanup anymore. Wells was awesome from the end of April through the end of August, but he hasn’t been a cleanup-worthy hitter for six weeks now. He can’t serve as Judge’s protection. He can’t keep coming up in important spots and not coming through. He’s likely tired from his first first full major-league season and the fact he played nearly every day once Jose Trevino went down during the season and then had to play nearly every day once Trevino returned because the Yankees were battling the Orioles in September for the division. Take some of the pressure off of him, let him focus on catching and move him down. Move Stanton to fourth, Jazz Chisholm to fifth and Wells to sixth. It’s time. It’s more than time.

7. It’s also time for Chisholm to start hitting. Chisholm has reached base once (via a walk) since his “lucky” comments after Game 2 of the ALDS. He went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts in Game 1.

8. Anthony Rizzo looked better than expected at the plate in his return and postseason debut (singling in his first at-bat and later walking), however, his misplay of a ground ball in the eighth inning can’t happen. (Oswaldo Cabrera and Jon Berti make that play.) Rizzo was oddly pulled from the game for the ninth with Cabrera taking over first base. Boone said Rizzo was “physically and emotionally spent,” but I have no idea what that means. How is Boone measuring someone being emotionally spent? Did Rizzo ask to come out of the game? Were his fingers bothering him? Boone said Rizzo is expected to start Game 2, but who knows. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Rizzo out of the lineup given Boone’s history of saying one thing and having the complete opposite thing happen the following day.

9. With the Game 1 win, the Yankees need to just play at least .500 baseball over the six remaining games of the series against a team they’re 5-2 against this season to advance to the World Series for the first time since 2009. It’s hard not to get excited about that realization and think ahead, but the Guardians have been a pesky problem in the past. The Yankees needed a full series of games to eliminate them in 2022 despite being the superior team then as well. And in that 2022 ALDS matchup, the Yankees won Game 1 with similar ease and had an early lead in Game 2 before dropping that game and Game 3. For as easy as Game 1 felt, I doubt the Guardians will make it that easy each game.

10. “There’s still three to get,” Stanton said. “We know this is good, but in our eyes, we haven’t done nothing yet.”

They’re three wins away from doing something, something this group has never done and with Gerrit Cole pitching at home in Game 2 on Tuesday, they’re in a great position to be two wins away.

Four down, seven to go.

After three days off, the ALCS is here.

Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.

1. If the Yankees are to advance to the World Series, their opponent will be a personal problem no matter what. Either they will face the Dodgers, and with my wife being from Los Angeles, the threat of having to live with the Yankees losing to the Dodgers in the World Series and me having to hear about it daily forever looms. Or they will face the Mets, and the threat of the Mets beating the Yankees in the World Series and changing the New York baseball dynamic and hierarchy looms. If the Yankees are to reach the World Series, they better win.

2. To get there, they will first have to eliminate the Guardians for the fourth time since 2017 (2017 ALDS, 2020 wild-card series, 2022 ALDS). I was rooting for the Tigers to win their ALDS matchup because of their impossibly bad offense, but it will be the Guardians, and that’s OK too.

The Yankees have owned the Guardians in recent years and beat up on them in the regular season this year as well. The Yankees went 4-2 against the Guardians this season and one of the two losses was a Caleb Ferguson extra-inning meltdown.

3. I’m confident about the Yankees in this series even with Carlos Rodon being their Game 1 starter.

“Game 1 sets the tone,” Rodon said. “I’m looking forward to being out there again, feeling the energy, and just giving my team the best chance to win.”

Rodon’s ALDS Game 2 start began with him striking out the side in the first, all while walking around the infield between batters like a maniac. He wasn’t stable mentally, emotionally or physically in that start, and it ended up being the only loss the Yankees suffered in the series. Rodon was pulled in the fourth inning of that start, similar to his only other postseason start in the 2021 ALDS with the White Sox against the Astros when he couldn’t get through the third inning. He can’t be that maniacal version of himself in Game 1 of the ALCS. He claims he watched Gerrit Cole’s poise in Game 4 of the ALDS to hopefully learn how to harness the mood-altering swings he experiences from pitch to pitch.

“Hopefully going through his first playoff game here in the Bronx,” Aaron Boone said, “and experiencing all the emotions that you do, there’s something that serves him well in his next time.”

4. The Guardians hit left-handed pitching and so it would have made sense to pitch Clarke Schmidt in Game 1 with Rodon going on the road in Game 3. Boone went with the high-paid veteran. It’s the Yankee Way: owed money trumps production.

Rodon has already banked $50.7 million in two years as a Yankee and is owed $111 million over the next four years. He would be nice if he earned some of that money by pitching well in the remainder of his postseason starts. If he does so and October ends with the Yankees winning the last game he pitches, his six-year, $162 million deal (which looks amazingly regrettable now) would all be worth it.

5. Oswaldo Cabrera and Jon Berti did a fantastic job, both offensively and defensively at first base in the ALDS. Apparently, it wasn’t good enough. Not only is Anthony Rizzo on the ALCS roster, but he’s playing first base and batting eighth in Game 1.

From Opening Day until Rizzo was injured on June 16, he had a .630 OPS in 291 plate appearances. He returned on September 1 and had a .660 OPS in 84 plate appearances. Whenever you can rush a guy with two broken fingers and a .637 OPS in 375 plate appearances back, you have to do it.

6. Cabrera and Berti combined to reach base seven times in 16 plate appearances in the ALDS and played first base flawlessly. There’s no way Rizzo, if healthy, would have posted a .438 on-base percentage in that series and I don’t know that he would have played first base flawlessly given his sloppy play in the field this season. Now add in him having not played in more than two weeks, likely still experiencing some level of pain on those two broken fingers and it’s like what are we doing here? Just play Cabrera or Berti. Here’s to hoping Rizzo isn’t a complete zero at the plate and doesn’t screw up in the field.

7. Here’s also to hoping Aaron Judge puts an end to his miserable postseason career because that’s exactly what it has been: miserable. Judge’s .762 career postseason OPS sits 248 points below his regular-season OPS of 1.010. That needs to change. I’m just not sure it’s going to change against the Guardians.

Here are Judge’s numbers against the Guardians in the postseason:

2017 ALDS: 1-for-20, 16 strikeouts
2020 Wild-Card Series: 1-for-11, four strikeouts
2022 ALDS: 4-for-20, 11 strikeouts

8. Judge has hit three home runs in 12 postseason games against the Guardians, but overall, he’s 6-for-51 with 31 strikeouts. The Yankees have eliminated the Guardians in each of three postseasons Judge has been a part of despite him hitting poorly, but him hitting poorly makes it challenging. He doesn’t have very good career numbers against Game 1 starter Alex Cobb (3-for-12 with a home run), but maybe facing the veteran righty will be what he needs to get going.

9. On the other hand, Juan Soto owns Cobb. Soto is 7-for-11 with a double, two home runs, a walk and two strikeouts against the righty. Like Judge, Soto failed to hit a ball out in the ALDS, but I would think that will change in the ALCS, and could change in the first inning of the first game. Don’t be surprised if Cobb gives Soto an unintentional intentional walk in the first and choose to pitch to Judge. It may be the only time the duo gets to face Cobb with the Guardians likely to go to their vaunted bullpen as quickly as they can. With each win in the postseason, the season gets extended by a day, and that means another game of Soto as a Yankee.

10. The Yankees haven’t won a seven-game series since the 2009 World Series. Since then, they lost the 2010 ALCS (4-2), 2012 ALCS (4-0), 2017 ALCS (4-3), 2019 ALCS (4-2) and 2022 ALCS (4-0). An 0-5 run in the ALCS for the franchise with an abysmal 7-20 record.

The Yankees don’t need to win Game 1 to win the series, but at home, with a rested Rodon and a rested bullpen, the odds are in their favor. Win Game 1 and they can play .500 baseball for six games against an inferior AL Central opponent and reach the World Series. Win Game 1 and they have Cole going in Game 2. Win Game 1 and … that’s all. Win Game 1.