Blogs – Page 209 – Keefe To The City

Sep 26, 2013

NFL Week 4 Picks

The Giants face a must-win game in Kansas City and it’s basically a must-win week for my picks (whatever that means).

I’m used to must-win games right now after spending the last few weeks watching the Yankees endure them. But on Wednesday night at the Stadium (my last Yankees game of the year), I watched the Yankees go down in their last meaningful game of the season. It took the Yankees 158 games and 97.5 percent of the season for the season to finally end, which was way longer than anyone though it would last with the names they used to replace their stars. As for the New York Football Giants, it might only take four games and 25 percent of the season for their season to end.

Three weeks ago I would have chalked up a visit to Kansas City to face Andy Reid, Alex Smith and the Chiefs as a predicted win for the Giants, but three weeks ago I also didn’t see the “Disaster in Dallas” coming or the blowout from the Broncos or whatever the eff that was in Carolina last Sunday. Those who try to predict wins and losses with NFL schedules are always reminded that it doesn’t matter who you play, it only matters when you play them and right now the Giants in their current state couldn’t be facing a worse matchup than on the road in Kansas City against the Chiefs in their current state.

The Chiefs are 3-0 under Reid, who knows the Giants and how to beat them better than any other coach in the NFL. They are coming off 10 days rest following their Week 3 win on Sept. 19 over Reid’s former team in his former city. Everything about this game says the Giants will lose to the Chiefs the way the Jaguars, Cowboys and Eagles already have. But in this NFL with these Giants, nothing goes according to plan and this game likely won’t either.

The Giants are at their best when they have been left for dead and the entire football world has moved on from considering them a playoff team or contender. Right now the football world has a reason to do that at 0-3 even if they trail the always-ready-to-collapse Cowboys by only two games in the division with the Eagles at 1-2 and Redskins at 0-3.

I don’t expect the Giants to go on the 13-0-type run that Antrel Rolle alluded to the possibility of on WFAN this week, but I also don’t expect them to roll over and become the 2012 Eagles. Once again I had to learn the lesson of having expectations with the Giants the hard way and that’s why in Week 4 against the Chiefs I don’t have any expectations. The Giants have two options: 1.) Win and save the season or 2.) Lose and spend the next 12 games and 13 weeks playing meaningless football.

As for the picks, well it looks like we are coming to a crossroads with those as well and we’re not in “must-win mode” for the picks yet (whatever must-win mode translate to in terms of making picks), but we’re almost there. I said in Week 2 that it would be a grind to chip away at the damage done in Week 1 and since “The Disaster” I have answered with back-to-back 7-8-1 weeks, which isn’t going to cut it. While the Giants try to save their season on Sunday, I will be trying to save mine as well.

Week 4 … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

San Francisco -3.5 over ST. LOUIS
If this game had taken place in Week 1 or Week 2 it would have been interesting to see what the line would have been. But it’s Week 4 now and the 49ers are tied with the Rams at 1-2 and two games back of the Seahawks in the NFC West. I thought after the 49ers’ Super Bowl run last season and the Rams’ gradual improvement over the last year that we were getting away from the NFC West matchups being must-not-watch TV and picks disasters. But maybe we’re heading back to that time period, which I wouldn’t mind since I miss the NFC West being the worst division in football and the NFC East being the best.

MINNESOTA +3 over Pittsburgh
When I first saw this line, my jaw dropped. The Vikings are getting three points at home against the Steelers?!?! Whaaaaaaaaaaaaaat?!?! This is too good to be true! And it was. Because I forgot about the NFL’s annual London game, which happens to be this one. So no, the Vikings aren’t home and neither are the Steelers. If anything though I’m guessing it will feel more like a home-field advantage for the Steelers if their fans, who travel well in the U.S., travel as well outside the U.S.

Baltimore -3 over BUFFALO
This game is a lot harder to pick than it appears. It appears as the defending Super Bowl champions -3 against the Bills in Buffalo, but it’s much more complicated than that after what we’ve seen from both teams over the first three weeks. I’m just going to hope that the Ravens defense has gotten its act together and will present never-before-seen problems for E.J. Manuel.

Cincinnati -3.5 over CLEVELAND
The Browns finally win a game with Brian Hoyer as their quarterback and suddenly their only 3.5-point underdogs against the Bengals? OK. Yes, I know the Bengals were in most of their games last year and in their two losses this year, but backing the Brian Hoyer era in its second week is a risky proposition.

Indianapolis -9.5 over JACKSONVILLE
This line could be -14 and I would still be on the Colts because we’re at the point right now where it’s going to be nearly impossible to pick the Jaguars. Last week, depending on where you got the line, the Seahawks were basically a 20-point favorite over the Jaguars and they covered that line with ease and I was willing to back the Seahawks as high as -35. I think the only way I wouldn’t pick against the Jaguars right now would be if they were playing the Giants. And unfortunately they’re not this season because the Giants could use a win.

Seattle -3 over HOUSTON
The Broncos are +300 to win the Super Bowl right now. The Seahawks are +450. I have no choice, but to ride this wave for as long as I can.

TAMPA BAY -2.5 over Arizona
Will the Buccaneers turn around their 0-3 season with a new quarterback in rookie Mike Glennon? Sure! Why not? In other words: Somewhere someone who isn’t a Buccaneers fan or a Cardinals fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

Chicago +2.5 over DETROIT
Pretty even division rivals, who have both been handed early-season wins? I will go with the undefeated one and thank you for the 2.5 points, Vegas.

New York Giants +5 over KANSAS CITY
Save the season or end it. If it’s the latter, I will probably have to pick against the Giants for the rest of the season.

TENNESSEE -4 over New York Jets
Earlier in the season I was thinking I could use the “Somewhere someone who isn’t a Titans fan or a Jets fan is going to bet on this game…” line for this game, but now we have a 3-0 Titans team hosting a 2-1 Jets team and it’s like it’s 2008 again. I would actually enjoy a Kerry Collins-Brett Favre matchup over a Jake Locker-Geno Smith matchup … even in 2013.

SAN DIEGO +2 over Dallas
The Giants aren’t in as bad of a place as they should be at 0-3 because the Eagles and Redskins have both stumbled out of the gate and only the Cowboys have a winning record in the NFC East. What does that mean for the season? It means that the Giants are probably going to need a Cowboys collapse at some point to get into the playoff picture. What better time than now in San Diego to start the annual implosion?

OAKLAND +3.5 over Washington
When I go to pick Redskins games I envision RGIII running around the field, picking up first downs left and right and controlling the game. But really I need to envision the Redskins defense challenging the Giants defense for the belt as the worst defense in the league. I mean 98 points allowed in three weeks? If only the Giants hadn’t given up 115 in the first three weeks more people would be talking about the Redskins defense and less about what’s wrong, if anything, with RGIII. So far the Raiders nearly pulled of an upset in Indianapolis, beat the Jaguars and were dominated in Denver. The Raiders should have been 1-2 through their first three games and they are. The Redskins shouldn’t be 0-3 after their first three, but they are. Right now the Raiders are playing like the team everyone expected them to be and even a little better than expected while no one knows who the Redskins are or what they are going to be.

DENVER -11.5 over Philadelphia
Remember when Chip Kelly saved the Eagles and brought his Oregon spread offense to the NFL and it worked flawlessly against the Redskins? And remember when Chip Kelly managed the clock against the Chargers the way Grady Little managed a bullpen and cost his team a game and then when his team turned the ball over five times in Andy Reid’s Philadelphia homecoming? I do and I’m glad the last two weeks happened to the Eagles and their fans and the construction on the Chip Kelly statue in front of Lincoln Financial Field was halted while the team gave their fans a reminder and reality check as to who they are.

As for the Broncos, at some point the Broncos aren’t going to cover. If it’s this week, so be it. But I’m not going to be on the other side of another Broncos blowout.

ATLANTA -2.5 over New England
I will never forgive the Falcons for blowing a 17-0 lead and losing to the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game and costing me the two-team parlay at 10-to-1 odds I had along with the Ravens over the Patriots. But I need to put that devastating loss aside for Sunday Night Football this week and remember how good the Falcons are at home (nearly Saints-esque), the fact they are 1-2 and that the Patriots aren’t exactly the most convincing 3-0 team. A two-point win in Buffalo over a rookie quarterback making his NFL debut, a three-point win at home against the Jets and a rookie quarterback making his second career start and a Week 3 win at home over the Buccaneers in the middle of a quarterback crisis are the reasons for not being overly convinced that the 2013 Patriots are going to be anything more than a team handed a playoff spot because they play in a weak division (Hey, Los Angeles Dodgers!).

NEW ORLEANS -6.5 over Miami
I’m on the Dolphins bandwagon and I’m sitting in the front seat and making small talk with the driver of it. The Dolphins are responsible for three of my 17 correct picks through three weeks so I feel terrible turning my back on them for a week and going with the Saints, but until the Saints stop winning games by a touchdown at home, I don’t have a choice. With Sean Payton as head coach, the last time the Saints didn’t win a home game by at least seven points (including the playoffs) was also the last home game they lost with Sean Payton as head coach, which was a 23-13 loss to the Buccaneers on Jan. 2, 2011. So I’m sure the Dolphins will understand my decision.

Last week: 7-8-1
Season: 17-28-3

Blogs • KTTC Classics • Yankees

Sep 25, 2013

I Believe CC Sabathia Because I Have To

CC Sabathia’s 13 losses are a big reason the Yankees won’t be playing in October, but he promises to be back in 2014.

The Yankees had to give CC Sabathia an extension. Coming off a 19-8 season with a 3.00 ERA in 2011 and 59-23 record with a 3.18 ERA in his first three seasons with the Yankees, he had been the first free-agent pitcher to truly live up to his hype and billing during the Brian Cashman era (unless you consider Mike Mussina the first to, which I don’t). Even if he was the biggest reason (aside from the runners in scoring position debacle) the Yankees lost to the Tigers in five games in the ALDS, the team had to re-sign him.

If Sabathia had opted out and signed somewhere else, the Yankees rotation entering 2012 would have been A.J. Burnett (thankfully he was eventually traded), Ivan Nova and Phil Hughes and who knows who else since Hiroki Kuroda had yet to sign and Andy Pettitte was still retired. Just a year after we were believed to be looking at a rotation of Sabathia, Cliff Lee, Pettitte, Burnett and Hughes before Lee ruined the Christmas season, if the Yankees didn’t extend Sabathia, they would have most likely had the worst rotation in the American League and I would have had to dust off the Cliff Lee Sad Songs Playlist.

The season after getting that extra year worth $25 million in 2016 and the $25 million vesting option for 2017, Sabathia started 28 games, his lowest total since 2006 (when he also started 28), posted his highest ERA since 2005 with 3.38, won his fewest amount of games since 2006 with 15 and allowed the most home runs in a season in his career despite the missed starts. He bounced back in the postseason by beating the Orioles in Games 1 and 5 of the ALDS (17.2 IP, 12 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 3 BB, 16 K), but then looked 2007 ALDS Chien-Ming Wang against the Tigers in Game 4 of the ALCS (3.2 IP, 11 H, 6 R, 5 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, 2 HR). Still there wasn’t any reason to be worried about the Yankees’ ace since.

And there wasn’t any reason to be worried even when the Red Sox beat him on Opening Day since he had been beaten up by the Orioles on Opening Day in 2009, the Red Sox in 2010 and the Rays in 2012. Three starts later, Sabathia was 3-1 with a 2.57 ERA, the Yankees had a 1.5-game lead in the AL East and everything seemed to be going according to the plan the way it had the previous four seasons with Sabathia at the front of the rotation. Even when he entered his final start of the “first half” with a 9-7 record and 3.99 ERA, Sabathia was going to go on his “second half” run after the break because that’s what he does.

But then the Twins torched him in that final start (4 IP, 8 H, 8 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, 1 HR), in the most embarrassing loss of the season, the Red Sox lit him up in his first start after the break (5 IP, 9 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, 2 HR), the Rays knocked him around five days later (5 IP, 9 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 3 BB, 6 K), and the Padres (the Padres!!!) roughed him up six days after that (5.2 IP, 11 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 3 BB, 4 K, 1 HR). After losing to the Padres on Aug. 2, Sabathia was 9-10 with a 4.78 ERA and the Yankees were just 12-11 in games started by him. Five days later he later the White Sox creep back from a 4-1 deficit to make it 4-3 in the eventual double blown save game. The day after that I wrote that the Yankees’ season was over.

Sabathia won’t pitch again in 2013 and rightfully so. There’s no point in running $76 million of guaranteed money out there to face the Astros in an exhibition game when it’s likely that he’s only one of two returning current starting pitchers in 2014. And because only Sabathia and Ivan Nova are likely to return to the rotation next season, it’s important, no it’s imperative that CC Sabathia return to the 2009-2012 CC Sabathia or something pretty freaking close to it to avoid a chase for the second wild-card spot a year from now.

Sabathia finished the 2013 season at 14-13 with a 4.78 ERA and somehow won five of his final eight starts despite pitching to a 4.94 ERA over that span. He won’t pitch again in a real, meaningful game until April 2 in Houston on Opening Day 2014, when he will earn the same nearly $700,000 he earned per start in this lost season. But even though a little over six months separate Sabathia and the bottom of the first inning in Houston that doesn’t mean he isn’t already thinking about finding himself on the mound or finding a new way to be successful on the mound and he talked about it on Tuesday. Let’s analyze what Sabathia had to say about his 2013 season and what he expects in 2014.

On it being hard to make adjustments.

“Yeah, it is (difficult). It’s me being stubborn, too, and not wanting to change and thinking that I’ve got stuff figured out. It was a lot of different things. Of course, you want to have more time to work on things, especially when you’re trying to change things in your delivery. I’ll have the whole offseason to work on my throwing and my mechanics and be back right.”

I’m not sure “stubborn” is powerful enough for a starting pitcher who rejects change and midseason adjustments while losing 13 games. Sabathia was asked to carry the team (along with Robinson Cano) through injuries and earn his $23 million, but he failed to do so. At least he has an extra month to work on his mechanics! So I guess it’s a good thing the Yankees won’t be playing in October!

On if he can return to being a dominant pitcher.

“I don’t think I’m ever going to be that same guy again. I’m 33 this year, but pitching against San Francisco the other night, I felt like back to myself more so than any other start. It wasn’t velocity — I was 90 to 93 — but just pitching inside, being aggressive, throwing fastballs in hitters’ counts. Just going out there and being a bully. That’s something I feel like I was before and kind of lost that this year.”

The Giants suck. You know this, right? They haven’t seen .500 since June 24 and are 24th in runs score in MLB, 29th in home runs and 27th in slugging percentage. Being a “bully” against the Giants shouldn’t make you feel like yourself. It’s the Giants! The Giants!

“I feel like at certain times, I kind of fell in the same pattern, pitching the same way. Hitters watch video and they know what to expect out of me, so it’s only right for me to do the same thing. … I’ve always been a guy that never watched video and that’s something that I need to change.

You mean guys like Mike Napoli? Yeah, I would say watching video might be something you want to change if it’s going to result in career .258 hitters like Mike Napoli turning into Manny Ramirez vs. Andy Pettitte (36-for-92, five home runs, 23 RBIs) against you.

On changing the way he prepares for games.

“My preparation for games probably needs to get a little better in that way. That’s something me and Larry talked about, and going forward will be better.”

At what point did you and Larry talk about changing your preparation? Was it before or after (or possibly during) your winless six-game stretch from July 9 to Aug. 9 (36 IP, 49 H, 33 R, 28 ER, 12 BB, 27 K, 7 HR)? I’m going to hope it was sometime after this since losing to the Royals, Twins, Rays and Padres and picking up no-decisions against the Red Sox and White Sox over the course of 31 days isn’t a good look for the “ace” of the staff. Even Phil Hughes can shake his head at that disappointing stretch, which helped ruin the Yankees’ season.

On what went wrong this season.

“I’m just talking about going out and pitching like I did the other day (against the Giants). Grinding games out. That’s something I feel like I didn’t do a good job of this year. Getting runners on base and being able to get a double play. Giving up a run or two, and being able to shut the inning off. I feel like I gave up too many big innings and big situations. We come out and score a couple of runs off a tough pitcher, and I come back and give the lead right back. That’s stuff that I didn’t do, or I don’t do, and it happened this year. I think that’s what I say when I talk about coming back and being right.”

I would have to say I trust Sabathia the least when it comes to pitching a shutdown inning right after the Yankees get on the board. It got so frustrating this season watching him give up leads or increase deficits that actually became funny. It became funny because it got to the point that all you could do was laugh as CC built picket fences on the scoreboard for the opposition, put the Yankees in early holes and blew late leads. I’m just glad he realizes what he was doing and didn’t just go to into A.J. Burnett “Eff It” mode when things unraveled even if it looked like he went into that mode.

On what will change in 2014.

“I think I’ll be back to myself. I know a lot of people have written me off and said I’ve thrown too many innings and whatever, whatever, but I’ll still be here and still be accountable and still be the guy that signed up in 2009.”

That quote made me go back and watch CC Sabathia’s press conference from December 2008 when he was introduced with A.J. Burnett 10-plus months before they would help end the eight-year World Series drought. And in that press conference CC said, “I want the ball every day if they’ll give it to me.” There was a time when I wanted him to have the ball every day. If he holds true to his promise, I will want him to have the ball every day next season.

Blogs • Yankees

Sep 24, 2013

At Least the 2013 Yankees Went the Distance

The Yankees aren’t going to the playoffs, but surprisingly I’m not as devastated about it as everyone thinks I would be.

It’s only fitting that J.R. Murphy struck out to end the season on Sunday. And it’s only fitting that Mark Reynolds provided the Yankees’ only run with a solo home run. And it’s only fitting that it was Zoilo Almonte’s baserunning error that cost the Yankees in the seventh inning. It’s only fitting that a 22-year-old catching prospect, the Cleveland Indians’ Opening Day designated hitter and the Yankees’ replacement outfielder’s replacement helped decide a must-win game for the 2013 Yankees.

I eliminated the Yankees back on Aug. 8 when I wrote “The Yankees’ Nightmare Season Is Over.” I wrote that column out of frustration following the three-game sweep at the hands of the White Sox, but I still believed they would find a way to reach the postseason even if it were as the lousy second wild card. They had Alex Rodriguez and Curtis Granderson back in the lineup, Alfonso Soriano back in the Bronx and Derek Jeter on his way back and 49 games left to make up the ground they lost on the 2-6 road trip to Los Angeles, San Diego and Chicago.

Since blowing leads in the ninth and 12th to the White Sox on Aug. 8, the Yankees have gone 25-18, which is actually quite impressive given their health status, but not enough to play in Bud Selig’s One-Game Playoff. They were forced into a must-win nine-game stretch to finish the season against the Giants, Rays and Astros to have somewhat of a chance at Bud Selig’s One-Game Playoff, but they failed to meet that goal in just Game 3 of 9 on Sunday, scoring one run against the Giants, who last saw .500 on June 24 (three months ago today). And the season was finally lost when last season’s World Series champion closer Sergio Romo got the 22-year-old Murphy to chase the same slider he got the Reds, Cardinals and Tigers to chase last October, but really the season was lost long before Murphy’s 13th career plate appearance.

I still don’t understand the people that refer to early-season baseball as “meaningless April and May games” or say things like, “It isn’t even the All-Star break yet.” These are probably the same people that think Bud Selig’s replay system, which will put more value on innings seven through nine than innings one through six, is a good idea. But it’s these people that are calling for Joe Girardi and Brian Cashman’s jobs on sports radio these days (their jobs aren’t on the line, but if they were, they should be called into question for reasons other than not making the playoffs this season) and flooding Twitter with rage about the Yankees not beating the Giants on Sunday or being swept by the Red Sox last weekend. But because baseball doesn’t “count” until Game 50, or Memorial Day or the All-Star break or any other made-up checkpoint or arbitrary date, I guess neither did any of the Yankees’ losses before then either.

The Yankees lost a lot of winnable games throughout the season and games that their full roster and previous Yankees teams would have won, but two series stick out the most: the four-game sweep by the Mets and the three-game sweep by the White Sox. I don’t think I need to tell you where they would be if they had won just three of those seven games or where they would be if they could have won four of the seven. Or where they would be if they had done just a little better than 1-6 in their last seven games against the Red Sox. Even with their incredible record in one-run games, the Yankees had plenty of chances to play in Bud Selig’s One-Game Playoff (thanks in large part to Toronto) and every other team vying to play in Bud Selig’s One-Game Playoff — Tampa Bay, Cleveland, Texas, Kansas City and Baltimore — all did their part in trying to help the Yankees reach the postseason for the 18th time in the last 19 seasons. The Yankees didn’t meet them half way over the last two months and now they have run out of schedule.

I don’t think the Yankees are looking at an upcoming season or seasons of embarrassment like the Red Sox endured in 2010 and 2012 (and would have continued to endure if the Dodgers didn’t bail them out) or the Mets have been enduring since their September collapses. Bud Selig’s One-Game Playoff has made sure that barely-above-average teams like the 2013 Yankees will be in contention for a postseason berth as long as they can tread water slightly above .500.

The Yankees are four games out of a playoff spot and still alive in Game 157 when they barely had a recognizable roster for the first 113 games and saw every would-be Opening Day position player miss significant time except for Robinson Cano and Ichiro Suzuki. Derek Jeter played 17 games, Mark Teixeira played 15, Alex Rodriguez 42 (so far), Kevin Youkilis 28, Curtis Granderson 55 (so far), Francisco Cervelli 17 and Travis Hafner (81). (Brett Gardner played in 145 games, but injured his oblique and would have been available in a limited role, if at all, in the playoffs.) Here are the Yankees’ current leaders by games played for each position:

C – Chris Stewart
1B – Lyle Overbay
2B – Robinson Cano
3B – Eduardo Nunez
SS – Jayson Nix
LF – Vernon Wells
CF – Brett Gardner
RF – Ichiro Suzuki
DH – Travis Hafner

Aside from the previously mentioned Murphy and Almonte, the Yankees called on David Adams, Luis Cruz, Brennan Boesch, Reid Brignac, Brendan Ryan, Chris Nelson, Brent Lillibridge, Alberto Gonzalez, Melky Mesa, Thomas Neal, Corban Joseph and the legendary Travis Ishikawa to replace first-ballot Hall of Famers, All-Stars and everyday major leaguers.

As for the rotation, CC Sabathia was shut down with a hamstring injury over the weekend, Andy Pettitte was placed on the DL in late May, David Phelps has thrown 23 pitches in September, but before then hadn’t pitched since July 4 and Michael Pineda still hasn’t thrown a pitch for the Yankees since becoming a Yankee. And even worse than any injury or terrible replacement was Phil Hughes, who might as well have been injured, with his 13 losses and 5.07 ERA on the season with still a start to go. I’m sure A.J. Burnett is wondering why I let Hughes off easy and spent hundreds of thousands of words each season on Burnett. But don’t worry, A.J.! The offseason is extra long this year and there are plenty of words to be written.

And because of the extra long offseason with no baseball in October, there will be plenty of time to look back on the 2013 season as a whole and not just how Phil Hughes did his part to ruin it. But with the Yankees four games out with six games to play and Number 42 and Number 46 making their final appearances, I thought it was necessary to look at the 2013 Yankees for taking the possibility of the postseason farther than I thought they would when they opened the season 1-4 and farther than I thought they would with the double blown save against the White Sox on Aug. 8.

Now it’s time to ask my friends who are Red Sox fans and Met fans what I’m supposed to do in October.

Blogs • Giants • NFL

Sep 19, 2013

NFL Week 3 Picks

It’s a busy week and that means a quick rundown for the Week 3 picks.

It’s a busy week, so let’s keep it short and sweet.

Week 3 … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

PHILADELPHIA -3.5 over Kansas City
If Chip Kelly knew how to manage the clock in the NFL then the Eagles could be 2-0 with a chance to beat Andy Reid in his homecoming to be the best team in the NFC East.

BALTIMORE +2.5 over Houston

San Diego +3 over TENNESSEE
It’s the Must-Not Watch Game of the Week, so … Somewhere someone who isn’t a Chargers fan or a Titans fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

St. Louis +3.5 over DALLAS
Are the Rams a team on the rise after their 7-9 season last year and impressive 4-1-1 record in the NFC West? Or are they just the usual Sam Bradford Rams? Even if they are only the Sam Bradford Rams, that should be good enough in Dallas against a Cowboys team that barely won a game in which their unnamed opponent turned the ball over six times and a Cowboys team that lost to Alex Smith and the Chiefs on the road.

Tampa Bay +7.5 over NEW ENGLAND
The Patriots don’t cover games. They still get the dynasty era respect, but they aren’t that same team. They will win enough games to win the AFC East and reach the postseason because of their schedule, but they can’t be trusted to win games for covering purposes. If you’re looking for that team, it’s the Broncos.

MINNESOTA -6 over Cleveland
I think the Vikings are better than their 0-2 record says they are because my girlfriend, a Vikings fan, makes me believe they are. So if they can’t cover against the Browns at home, I blame her.

NEW ORLEANS -7.5 over Arizona
The Saints at the Superdome against the Cardinals. That sentence should say all you need to know.

WASHINGTON -1.5 over Detroit
When you take a dome team out of their dome, bad things happen. The Saints and Falcons are unstoppable and unbeatable at their homes and while the Lions don’t have the same home success of those two teams, they play just as poorly as them when they are on the road.

Green Bay +3 over CINCINNATI
I want to buy into the Bengals and their bandwagon, which is running out of seats (I checked on StubHub and Craigslist), but against the Packers, even if they’re not the same Packers everyone is selling us on, I have to go with Aaron Rodgers over Andy Dalton.

New York Giants +1 over CAROLINA
The Giants aren’t playing for their season in Carolina, but they kind of are. A loss to the Panthers will start the “Only (some number) of teams have started 0-3 and made the playoffs” talk for every media outlet until next Sunday. So I have to pick the Giants to cover because I think they will win. They kind of have to.

MIAMI -2 over Atlanta
Remember what I said for about the Lions earlier? If you do, then you know that I wrote about the Falcons in that summary and what kind of road team they are.

SEATTLE -19 over Jacksonville
It’s the first college football line in the NFL in a while and it could be -35 and I would still take the Seahawks.

SAN FRANCISCO -10.5 over Indianapolis
The Colts are in a bad spot going to San Francisco with the 49ers coming off back-to-back losses. A very bad spot.

Buffalo +2.5 over NEW YORK JETS
The Giants are 0-2 and the Jets are 1-1 and the Giants are being talked about like they are the Jets, while the Jets are being talked about like they are the … well, they are still being talked about like they are the Jets because everyone is waiting for them to fall apart. The only way for them to fall apart is to start losing games like a home game against the Bills.

Chicago -2.5 over PITTSBURGH
If the Steelers’ team name were anything, but the “Steelers” this week, this line would be probably Chicago -4.5 or higher. But because the Steelers are the Steelers and have the following and garner the attention that they do, they are only 2.5-point underdogs at home despite being really bad.

DENVER -14.5 over Oakland
The Broncos’ line are only going to keep getting higher and higher and higher until you can’t take them anymore. So take them while you can.

Last week: 7-8-1
Season: 10-20-2

Blogs • Giants • Giants Thoughts

Sep 16, 2013

Giants-Broncos Week 2 Thoughts: Excuses for Eli Manning

Eli Manning isn’t worried that he threw four interceptions and lost to his brother again or that the Giants are 0-2 and playing for their season in Week 3.

I’m really good at making excuses for Eli Manning. Like really, really good. I’m so good that I would be surprised if Archie or Olivia or Peyton or Cooper are as good as me at making excuses for the youngest member of their family. Why am I so good at this? I think it’s because I think Eli is better than his numbers seem to suggest or better than everyone gives him credit for. And because of that I thought the Giants would get the last laugh at Vegas for making 5 1/2-point underdogs at home against the Broncos and Eli would win what’s likely to be the final Manning Bowl. Instead, Vegas got the last laugh (at me) and Peyton added another footnote to help his case in any Manning debate forever.

How am I supposed to make an excuse for Eli after Sunday’s performance against the Broncos after last Sunday’s performance against the Cowboys? How can I sit here and tell you neither loss was Eli’s fault (or at least mostly his fault)? Should I also tell you that the day after Sunday is Tuesday or that Thanksgiving isn’t always on a Thursday or that CC Sabathia isn’t a complete waste of $23 million this year or that I’m looking forward to a postseason-less October for the Yankees? No, no, no and no. I can’t sit here today and make excuses for Eli Manning, but I don’t need to. Eli has made excuses for himself.

That’s right. Two Super Bowl MVPs or not, Eli Manning answered questions after a four-interception performance in a loss as if to say, “No big deal.” And maybe it is “no big deal” for a quarterback playing with a $106.9 million contract, but that’s also why it should be a big deal. So instead of the usual “Thoughts” following each Giants game, let’s analyze Eli’s postgame answers.

On his level of concern for the way things are going.

“I think we’ll bounce back and I thought there were some good things. The first half I thought we had a lot of opportunities. I think that’s where we did some really good things. We just didn’t get touchdowns. We got field goals and in the second half we had a weird interception off of a foot and we tried to fight back.”

Wow. What a way to start answering questions after an 18-point, four-interception loss that puts the Giants in an 0-2 hole. What a way to open the postgame media session. This would be like CC Sabathia opening a postgame session after giving up five earned runs in five innings or blowing a late-game lead by saying that he needs to get better and he will fix things and turn it around only to never get better, never fix things, turn nothing around and continue to lose. Wait a second …

“Some good things?” “Some really good things?!?!” “SOME REALLY GOOD THINGS?!?!” You threw four interceptions. Hakeem Nicks dislocated his finger. David Wilson rushed for 17 yards on seven carries. Brandon Jacobs rushed for four yards on seven carries. The famous pass rush recorded zero sacks. Should I go on?

But you’re right, in the first half there were some opportunities. And you’re right that you and offensive genius Kevin Gilbride destroyed every opportunity by settling for field goals. And saying “We just didn’t get touchdowns” so nonchalantly is just a little bit of a problem. And it was a nice touch trying to act like the “weird interception off of a foot” was the reason for the loss or the only interception and not just one of four interceptions that included three incredible picks that left me asking myself if I even like football.

“When we got down a couple of scores and tried to press, it could go either way. You could make some plays hopefully and also make some mistakes. We were in a bind. The offense, we have to get a little more balanced. We have to run the ball better and we have to eliminate the turnovers. I think we’ll keep fighting and get back on track. I know everybody in our division lost today, so the way we can look at it, we’re one game back in the division. We’ve got to get back to winning some games.”

You don’t think the offense is balanced? You don’t think 812 passing yards and 73 rushing yards through two games is balanced? Get the eff out of here! Me too!

And everyone else in the NFC East lost on Sunday? Well, when you put it that way who even cares that the Giants lost? Just like who cares that the Yankees lost on Sunday since the Rays and Rangers lost?

On going 3-for-12 on third downs.

“We’ll have to look. Just had a couple … I can think of one drop, some misfires, I got pressured on a few things. I think a couple were down in the red zone that were unfortunate. If we could have converted on those, they could have led to scoring touchdowns and not field goals.”

Yes, “we’ll have to look” at how you can convert 25 percent of your third downs with a receiving trio of Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz and Rueben Randle. It’s at least a little reassuring that you do realize that converting first downs in the red zone is an important factor in scoring touchdowns and not settling for field goals. At least we’re on the right track.

On whether or not the season feels like 2007.

“We just have to play better. I’m not trying to make comparisons to years obviously … You can look at it the same, but we have to find a way to play better. Better offense, better defense. I thought the defense played really well that last two weeks, so we have to help them out by scoring some more points and putting the opposing offense in a bind.”

Thank you, Eli! Finally, someone with their head on straight. Can everyone else please stop talking about 2007? Please? Does every 0-2 team go on to win 10 of their remaining 14 games and then win four road games in the postseason and knock off what would have been the best team in NFL history in the Super Bowl? If so, then forget me telling you to stop talking about 2007 and go on and continue to lazily use that storyline and connection and try to relive the most improbable playoff run. But that team had a pass rush and an 1,000-yard rusher. This team has turned the ball over 10 times, has two sacks and 73 rushing yards in eight quarters. Let’s hold the comparisons for a week or two or until the Giants get a win.

On whether or not Peyton will tease him about never beating him.

“I don’t think so. I think this is something that we’re both passionate about. What we’re doing is our job. It’s my concern to this team and getting back to winning right now.”

Oh, he’s definitely going to tease you. But luckily you have that trump card in the second ring and both of them coming against Tom Brady, who Peyton has had trouble beating his entire career.

On if the loss is more disappointing because it’s against Peyton.

“It’s all team-related. You want to go out there and play well, so you’re frustrated that you lost another game. We had some opportunities early on. Their offense started clicking and making some plays. We had turnovers and we just couldn’t catch any breaks. We just really want to get back to where we’re playing better football offensively and get back on track.”

Oh, BS. You know it bothers you that you lost to your older brother and have never beat him.

On the interception intended for Nicks at the end of the first half.

“Just a bad decision by me. I was really just trying to kind of … in a little … on a blitz and trying to throw the ball away, where we wouldn’t get an intentional grounding, but we would get it close. It was unfortunate that I threw it in a spot where their guy could make a play.”

You didn’t “throw it in a spot where their guy could make a play.” You threw it to their guy as if he was the guy trying to make the play. “Unfortunate” was a good word to use.

On the fourth and final interception.

“The last one was on me. Rueben did the right thing, he ran the right route and I threw the wrong route.”

Not only did you throw the wrong route, but I would say that was the worst interception of your career. And that’s coming one week after I said your first throw of the 2013 season, which was an interception, was the worst of your career. OK, maybe the one from last week is still the worst, but this one has to be Top 5. I’m scared to know what’s in store for Week 3 and if you’re going to try to one-up yourself all season with these.

On the pass to Cruz on the first play of the game.

“It was honestly a great way to start the game. Our defense got us a turnover and to hit Cruz on a big one down the field on the first play and then got another first down running with Brandon, it was a good drive. We had a third and long and weren’t able to convert on that one, had to settle for a field goal, but it was a good start. First half there was really good things going on, we just didn’t finish some drives as well as we needed to.”

This is why the interception last week was so insane. The Giants had an entire offseason to decide what the first play of the season would be and Eli threw the ball directly into DeMarcus Ware’s chest. Then they had a week to decide how they would attack the Broncos from the start of the game and they decided on airing it out, which led to a 51-yard pass to Cruz. It was the best play of the day because it set the tone after the Broncos punted, but it also made the day that more frustrating (and of course last week’s season-opening interception that much more unfathomable).

On throwing seven interception in two games.

“Yeah, that’s never a goal. Before the season I like to set goals, keeping interceptions in the single digits. I kind of have to start over here. Obviously, some of them happen and you have to look at decisions and you get some bad breaks. Sometimes you get late in games, fourth-and-10 and we have to make a play and force something here and whether it’s intercepted or incomplete, an interception probably ends up being better right there for us field position-wise. At the end of games or when you’re competing, I’m going to be aggressive and not worry about the stats or quarterback rating at the end. Honestly I’m not trying to throw interceptions, but obviously I’m just worried about getting back to playing well offensively and eliminating some of these turnovers.”

I think you could have gone without saying “that’s never a goal.” I’m pretty sure no one was going to ask if you that was a goal of yours. And I hate to break it to you, but Brendan Ryan (who has 19 career home runs in 2,327 at-bats) has a better chance of hitting double-digit home runs in 2013 (he has four home runs and there are 12 games left) than you do of keeping your interception total to single digits this season. Starting over is a good idea. We can come up with some goals this week before the Carolina game. (I already have some in mind.) And good for you for not worrying about stats or quarterback rating or anything that puts your team in a better position to win. Just keep doing what you’re doing. It’s obviously working.