Blogs – Page 121 – Keefe To The City

Apr 1, 2019

This Yankees Season Is a Continuation of Last Season

These first three Yankees games might have been the first three games of the 2019 season, but they felt like Games 163, 164 and 165 of the 2018 season.

I didn’t think it was possible to like Aaron Judge more than I already do, but after Saturday’s embarrassing loss to the Orioles, the face of the Yankees criticized his team’s effort.

“Every game is important because you can go at the end of the year and look back at how many missed opportunities and games that we should have won, but we just didn’t come up with the big hit, a costly error, stuff like that. Every single game is important.”

Every single game is important. Every single game is important! EVERY SINGLE GAME IS IMPORTANT!

It’s the first time I have heard a player show real urgency this early in the season, as if the team finally realized there’s no extra credit given in the standings for wins after the All-Star break. Losses on March 30 are just as destructive to a team’s chance at winning the division and avoiding the one-game playoff as a loss in Game 161, and I was ecstatic to hear Judge has the same perspective on early-season games I have always believed in.

Getting upset with the lineup construction in the first game of the season or being bothered by the bullpen usage in the third game of the season is entirely acceptable. When you play in the same division as one of the only other true powers in the entire league, you can’t afford to give games away, let alone give them away to an Orioles team expected to be one of the worst teams in the history of Major League Baseball. But that’s exactly what the Yankees did on Saturday and Sunday. An inability to hit with runners in scoring position, defensive mistakes and miscues, a lineup built with no logic and bullpen management without a plan cost them two games against an inferior opponent. These three games might have been the first three games of the 2019 season, but they felt like Games 163, 164 and 165 of the 2018 season.

Last season, the Yankees went 23-14 against last-place teams, which is what the Orioles will end up being this season. The Red Sox went 32-5. The difference there is nine games. The Yankees lost the division by eight games. The Yankees’ being unable to beat the teams they should beat cost them the division, pushed them into the wild-card game, forced them to use Luis Severino in the wild-card game rather than Game 1 of the ALDS and gave the Red Sox home-field advantage in the ALDS. If the Yankees win the division, the Red Sox have to use Chris Sale in the wild-card game rather than Game 1 of the ALDS and Games 1 and 2 of the ALDS are at Yankee Stadium. And oh yeah, maybe the Red Sox flat-out lose the wild-card game and the Yankees face the A’s in the division series.

Sure, the Red Sox had a special team last season, a team which started out 17-2 and ended up with 108 wins before beating the Yankees, Astros and Dodgers in the postseason. But the Yankees, despite all their injuries and second-half slump, were good enough to hang with them for most of the regular season. The difference in setting up October was their play against the worst teams in the league.

I didn’t think the Yankees’ losing ways against the league’s worst would continue into 2019. I thought the way the division unfolded last year, followed by the humiliation of being run out of their own stadium in the postseason, and ultimately, another year of experience for the young core would change the team’s overall approach to the season.

With nine games against the Orioles and Tigers to open the season, I thought the Yankees would go at least 7-2, get off to a good start right out of the gate and maybe even run away and hide with the division the way the Red Sox did a year ago. Clearly, I was a fool for thinking so.

I was foolish to think not having baseball for six months magically made these Yankees any different than the 2018 Yankees. They’re not. It’s the same exact team and without Luis Severino, Dellin Betances, CC Sabathia and Aaron Hicks right now, they’re worse than last year’s version.

I was against bringing Brett Gardner back, but the Yankees signed him to a one-year deal before free agency could even breathe. OK, so he would be back as the team’s fourth outfielder and a veteran clubhouse presence, relegated to a reserve role on a team with true championship aspirations in what is really their first season in this window of opportunity to win. When he would play, I certainly didn’t think he would bat leadoff whether Aaron Hicks is out or not. Gardner hit like a catcher last season, batting .236/.322/.368 and batting himself down to ninth in the lineup before batting himself out of the starting lineup compltely following the trade for Andrew McCutchen. Luke Voit bats fourth because of what he did last season. Miguel Andujar bats fifth because of what he did last season. Gary Sanchez bats sixth because of what he did last season (which is why he no longer bats third or fourth). Gardner bats first because … I have no idea. The Yankees are an analytics-driven team, which has set pitch limits and innings for pitchers, rules about set days off and who rests and when. They have sleep researchers determine when the team should arrive for road trips and what time players should wake up to work out. But when it comes to who should get the most at-bats on the team, they’re fine with a player who’s barely on the team getting them and they’re fine with having no reason to justify it either.

I thought Giancarlo Stanton would be more comfortable in his second season as a Yankee, and maybe, just maybe he might even change his approach at the plate after the way he looked against quality pitchers all of last season. I thought his second season in New York, having become more familiar with the pitchers in the league would be more enjoyable to watch than his first. But his at-bat with the bases loaded on Saturday, followed by his awful three-pitch at-bat on Sunday showed Stanton is the same old Stanton, a player who will put a game that’s out of reach farther out of reach and who will take your backend starters to the upper deck. We’ll continue to hear about his 120 mph singles breaking Statcast records in the first inning of games and we’ll continue to watch him chase every slider in a crucial moments as well.

I thought Aaron Boone would progress as a manager in his second season, especially following his October mistakes. But after seeing him inexplicably bring Stephen Tarpley into Sunday’s game immediately following his offense getting the deficit to one with six outs left to tie the game made me wonder. Sure enough, Tarpley gave up a two-run home run to push the deficit to three. Then when Boone decided to get Chad Green up in the ninth inning in what was now a three-run deficit with the bases loaded thanks to Tommy Kahnle confirming he’s nowhere near being his old self, I no longer had to wonder. Boone proved he’s just as lost in his second season as he was in his rookie season.

Call these opinions overreactions or cite these the first three games of the season as three games out of 162 and the smallest of sample sizes. But they’re not. They’re exactly what we watched from the Yankees last season. You can reference the 1-4 start in the historical 1998 season or the 1-2 start against the Orioles to open the team’s last championship season in 2009 as reasons to not get overly upset with this past weekend. But these Yankees are definitely not the ’98 team and they’re far from being the ’09 club as well. For now, the 2019 Yankees are a continuation of the 2018 Yankees.

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My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!

Blogs • Yankees

Mar 29, 2019

Yankees’ Formula for Winning Works to Perfection on Opening Day

Opening Day might have just been a win over the lousy Orioles, but the Yankees used their power to get a lead, got five innings from their starter and then their bullpen closed out the game.

The feeling of Yankees baseball being back is truly indescribable. Knowing for at least the next six months (and it better be seven months) there will be baseball brings such an immense feeling of happiness, I’m not sure it can be matched by anything. (If my fiancée is reading this then that last sentence was simply a joke and an exaggeration.)

As far as Opening Day goes, you can’t have a better one than the Yankees had. Last year’s Opening Day win in Toronto was the gold standard for Opening Day wins and Thursday’s at least matched it.

The good Masahiro Tanaka showed up, something which hasn’t always happened in his Opening Day starts, in place of Luis Severino, the Yankees’ offense was overpowering, even without their starting center fielder and best leadoff option not named Aaron Judge and the bullpen pieced together 3 1/3 scoreless innings without Dellin Betances. The win was a product of the formula the Yankees have tried to win a championship with the last couple seasons: home runs get the lead, starting pitcher goes at least five and the bullpen closes it out.

The formula has come up short in back-to-back postseasons for the Yankees, but the way everyone talked about signs pointing to it being the Red Sox’ year early last season when they got off to a 17-2 start and won games every which way, there were a few small signs in Thursday’s 7-2 win over the Orioles pointing to this possibly being the Yankees’ season. When things like Judge and Giancarlo hitting back-to-back singles and Gary Sanchez is squibbing ground balls through the shift happen, you can’t help but think, This is the Yankees’ year.

Big picture, it was one win over the lousy Orioles, a team the Yankees shouldn’t lose to once out of their 19 games this season and a team who would probably sign up for their 47 wins from last season right now. (I have no idea how their roster is going to come up with one win let alone 47 and we might be looking at the worst team in the history of Major League Baseball.) But when you have been baseball-deprived for nearly six months and your season ends the way the Yankees’ did last year, Opening Day always feels more important and significant than it should.

We already knew the Yankees were on the short list of potential American League champions with the Red Sox and Astros, and Thursday did nothing other than prove they should be able to beat up on the many tanking teams in this year’s AL. With two more games against Baltimore this weekend, followed by three against Detroit and another three with Baltimore next weekend, there’s no reason the Yankees can’t go at least 7-2 in those nine games. They have to go to at least 7-2 in those games. The difference between winning the division and playing in the wild-card game last year came down to the Yankees’ inability to rack up wins against the crap throughout the league (and the four game sweep in Boston didn’t help).

There will be plenty of time to worry about the Yankees’ postseason plans and how they will navigate through the Red Sox and Astros in October. For now, the Yankees’ first goal is to win the division, something they haven’t done in seven years. Thursday’s win got them started in the right direction.

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My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!

Blogs • KTTC Classics • Yankees

Mar 28, 2019

Yankees’ Championship Window of Opportunity Begins Now

The grace period with these Yankees is over. This season is the first in the window of opportunity for this core to win.

No one expected the 2016 Yankees to be any good. And they weren’t.

They got off to a 9-17 start, and it was obvious they had to tear apart the team and play prospects, and by this time every fan wanted them to do just that. Free agency had been the Yankees’ strategy since the early 2000s and a way for the team to plug holes on their sinking ship. It worked at times as they were able to tread water, have winning seasons and reach the playoffs, but over the previous 15 years, they had won one championship. Eventually you need to start over. Eventually you need a new boat. The game had changed too much and the Yankees needed a new boat and Yankees fans wanted a new boat.

At the end of play on July 6, 2016, the Yankees were 41-43 and it looked like they would certainly be sellers at the deadline in three weeks, but ownership wasn’t on board. The Yankees then went on an 11-5 run through July 26, and were now in striking distance of a wild-card spot — only four games back — and ownership hadn’t budged on selling and giving up on the season for future seasons.

The Yankees then lost their next four games, one in Houston and a three-game sweep in Tampa Bay. It was the best thing to happen to the organization since the Astros, Indians, Expos, Orioles and Reds passed on Derek Jeter in the 1992 draft, allowing the Yankees to select him with the sixth-overall pick. The losing streak pushed the Yankees out of reasonable contention, ownership gave Brian Cashman the green light to trade his veteran assets and begin the transition into “rebuilding mode”.

Andrew Miller (Indians), Aroldis Chapman (Cubs), Carlos Beltran (Rangers) and Ivan Nova (Pirates) were all traded, and Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira announced their retirements. Gary Sanchez and Aaron Judge were called up to become everyday players, and in the process, Brian McCann was relegated to backup duty, which would lead to his offseason trade to the Astros. The Yankees had finally decided to show off the depth in their farm system, and thanks to that four-game losing streak at the end of July, the depth only got deeper with the top prospects they received in return.

The 2017 Yankees weren’t supposed to be good either, picked by many to finish near or at the bottom of the AL East in what was certainly going to be a rebuilding season. But there ended up being no “rebuilding”. The Yankees seemingly hit on every prospect who reached the majors and the team went from preseason dud to postseason bound, winning 91 games and putting up a plus-198 run differential.

The 2017 Yankees overcame a 3-0 first-inning deficit in the wild-card game. They overcame an 0-2 series hole to the 102-win Indians to advance to the ALCS. They overcame another 0-2 series hole to the Astros to bring a 3-2 series lead to Houston for Games 6 and 7. Ultimately, they came one win shy of reaching the World Series for the first time in eight years.

For 2018, the Yankees essentially replaced Chase Headley, Starlin Castro and Jacoby Ellsbury with Giancarlo Stanton (the reigning NL MVP), Miguel Andujar, Gleyber Torres and the Aaron Hicks who was drafted in the first round. But once again, they came up short in the postseason.

The 2017 postseason loss wasn’t crushing. Rather it was an exhilarating ride, being back at a raucous Stadium seemingly every night in October and watching a young, homegrown core get within a game of the World Series. The 2018 postseason loss, on the other hand, was crushing. After once again winning the wild-card game, and taking a game in Boston, the Yankees became the favorite in what had become a best-of-3 with two games at the Stadium where they didn’t lose. Not only did they lose both, they were embarrassed in every facet of the game, especially managing, and their rival celebrated on their field en route to a championship season.

Because of the way the season ended and the team it ended against, 2018 is viewed as a disaster, and rightfully so. But if you go back to 2016, 2017 and 2018 were never supposed to be about the Yankees. They were supposed to be about the Indians and Astros and Red Sox and Cubs and Dodgers, and they were. The timeline Yankees fans were given and expected prior to Opening Day 2016 was always 2019, these Yankees just happened to arrive early. The 2017 and 2018 Yankees gave us two unexpected years of championship contention even if it didn’t end with a championship.

It’s nearly impossible to predict who will and won’t perform in the postseason, with the goal being to get there and then hoping things go your way. The Yankees are built to get there even if they exceeded the luxury tax only to not sign either of the two 26-year-old generational stars or the top pitcher on the free-agent market. The optimal way to get there and succeed is to avoid the wild-card game, which the Yankees have played in back-to-back seasons and three of the last four. That can’t happen again. No more coming up short in the regular season. No more one-game playoff to decide the team’s fate.

The grace period with these Yankees is now over. This season is the first season of the window of opportunity for this core to win a championship or championships. There’s no more consolation prize for coming within a game of the World Series or winning 100 games and then getting blown out by your storied rival. There’s no more excuses and no more “Next year”. These Yankees were expected to truly contend in 2019 and 2019 is now.

The championship grace period is over. It’s long over. This October will be 10 years since the Yankees last reached the World Series and last won it. From here on out, every season with this group which doesn’t end with a championship will be a missed opportunity.

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My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!

Blogs • Yankees

Mar 27, 2019

‘Twas the Night Before Yankees Opening Day

‘Twas the night before Opening Day, when all through the city …

’Twas the night before Yankees Opening Day, when all through the city
Yankees fans were praying the season wouldn’t be shitty;
The Dugout and Billy’s were stocked full of liquor and beer;
Knowing in a few hours at neither bar would you be able to hear;

Giancarlo Stanton nestled all snug in his bed,
Telling himself he wouldn’t let the Stadium boo birds get in his head;
All the new pitchers and players tried to get some sleep with all the hype,
As tomorrow would be the first time they wear the Yankees pinstripes.

When suddenly on Twitter there arose a bunch of chatter,
The entire Tri-state area sprang to the Internet to see what was the matter.
Away to the computer I flew like a flash,
Tripped over my dog’s water bowl and knocked over the trash.

My feed was full of tweets from the Yankees community,
Reminding everyone this is technically the first season of this team’s window of opportunity.
The loss to the Astros and the disastrous end to last year,
Had made us all forget these Yankees weren’t even supposed to be there.

Three years ago, 2019 was the expected year the Yankees would once again contend,
But they arrived two years early, despite Hal Steinbrenner not wanting to spend.
After the Game 7 loss to Houston, Hal cut payroll by 50 million bucks,
And then we had to sit there last fall as the Red Sox won and their fans chanted “Yankees suck”.

Sure, the lineup was already full with Stanton, Sanchez, Torres, Andujar and Judge
But when it came to the best free-agent class ever, Hal wouldn’t budge.
Ownership wouldn’t allow for Corbin, Manny or Bryce,
Thinking their long-term deals would turn into Heyward, Pujols and Price.

So the front office brought back Gardy, CC, Britton and Happ,
Scared away from the big names by the game’s fake salary cap.
They did sign Ottavino and LeMahieu is certainly no scrub,
Though they could have had one, if not two, 26-year-old superstars joining the club.

With Didi out from Tommy John to go along with his already-hurt wrist,
Cashman filled shortstop with a player who will likely join him on the disabled list.
Signing Tulo is the latest low-risk, high-reward move from the GM and his crew,
And how’d that go with Brian Roberts, Chris Carter, Randy Winn and Stephen Drew?

Sure, without Machado and Harper, the Yankees can still win,
Unless in the playoffs, Boone gives the ball to this year’s Lance Lynn.
After 2018, it’s nearly impossible to trust the manager with moves in the pen,
And if he didn’t learn his lesson from last October, there will be a first-round exit again.

With at least four relievers you would undoubtedly consider elite,
If the Yankees have the lead after five, they’re nearly impossible to beat.
That is if Boone has figured out who should get the ball and when,
Thankfully, his comfort blanket in A.J. Cole is no longer an option to bring in.

Now, Judge! Now, Stanton! Now, Gleyber and Gary!
Add in Andujar and Voit and the lineup is once again scary.
From the netting in Monument Park to the short porch in right and over the wall,
I’m not worried about the offense carrying the team if the starting pitching should fall.

The rotation is full of injury questions and depth is a concern,
But what rotation goes through an entire season without several minor leaguers getting a turn?
A lingering elbow tear, a knee problem, a shoulder and age are the issues,
If Luis Cessa is given another chance to start, I’ll need several boxes of tissues.

This October will be 10 years since the Yankees last won it all,
Enough is enough, there needs to be a Canyon of Heroes parade this fall.
I expect the Yankees to win the last game of the baseball season,
And if they don’t, their decision to be cheap better not be the reason.

One last time tomorrow, I will wish this offseason Hal had been more like his dad, The Boss,
As Masahiro Tanaka stands on the mound and throws his final warmup toss.
“Stepping up to the microphone is the voice of the New York Yankees,” I can hear Suzyn say,
With John replying, “Why, Suzyn, I thank you,” as the 2019 season gets underway.

***

My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!

Blogs • KTTC Classics • Yankees

Mar 27, 2019

2019 Yankees Over/Under Predictions

Individual over/under predictions for some of the Yankees for the 2019 season.

Tomorrow there will be Yankees baseball. Real baseball that counts. The offseason is such a grind, but we made it. We’re here!

In honor of the MLB Over/Under Win Total Predictions blog from Monday, I decided to come up with a variety of over/under predictions for the Yankees this season.

Gary Sanchez: 13.5 passed balls
Last season, Gary Sanchez led the majors with 18 passed balls despite only catching 76 games, 74 which were starts and 67 which were complete games. The year before, he led the league with 16 passed balls in 104 games caught, 99 which were starts and 91 which were complete games. Somehow, Sanchez increased his passed ball total despite appearing in 28 last games. No, that’s not ideal.

On a scale of 1-10, I care about Sanchez’s passed balls a 4, and I realize that’s definitely on the low end and might be the lowest anyone is willing to go there. There are people, like Michael Kay, who are definitely at or near a 10, but not me. Considering Sanchez’s arm and framing abilities, his passed balls are much less of an issue than they are made out to be. I’m more concerned with Sanchez returning to his offensive form, being the .284/.354/.568 hitter he was in 2016 and 2017 than I am about him blocking pitches from Masahiro Tanaka in the dirt.

But I’m optimistic when it comes to Sanchez and think he will be better behind the plate in 2019, as long as he isn’t struggling offensively since I believed that affected his defensive work either. It would be nice to see him less, let’s say lazy, when he’s got his gear on and not letting fastballs go by him to advance base runners. Sanchez has to be better in 2019. I can’t go another season of listening to idiots call for Austin Romine to be the team’s starting catcher. Under.

Miguel Andujar: .299 batting average
Like Sanchez’s passed balls, I’m not overly concerned with Miguel Andujar’s defense at third base. Last season, he was a 23-year-old in his first full season in the league. Defensive issues should expected. As long as there is progress and improvement in the field, this should be a non-issue in 2019. Unfortunately, the first time he boots a ball or bounces an errant throw to first, the mainstream media will eat it up.

When you finish second in AL Rookie of the Year voting and rack up 47 doubles and 76 extra-base hits, drive in 92 runs from the bottom of the order and bat .297, you’re allowed to be less-than-stellar in the field, in my book.

Andujar no longer has to live with the idea Manny Machado will be a Yankee at some point and take his position and force him to the outfield or first base. The Yankees proved they do believe in him and it wasn’t just a lie to buy them time until they could sign Machado, they really do believe in him. And so do I.

For a long time, having a .300 hitter on the Yankees wasn’t unusual, considering they had Derek Jeter for two decades and during his years also had some pretty good players. But since Jeter aged and Robinson Cano left, it’s been a while since you could look at the big screen in center field at the Stadium and see .300 next to a Yankee late in the season. Andujar’s rookie season and his contact ability are the perfect combination to believe that will change. Over.

Aaron Hicks: 145 games played
Everything about the Aaron Hicks contract extension is great except that he could be playing center field for the Yankees as a 36-year-old in 2026, and I’m not about to go back to 2013-16. The good news is if he sucks then or really at any point in this deal, it’s not an overwhelming amount of money the Yankees owe him or would have to eat. At $10 million per season for a starting center fielder in this center field climate, it might be the best contract the Yankees have ever had on their payroll.

The biggest problem with Hicks is that he can’t stay healthy, which he is showing once again as he won’t be ready for Opening Day and probably not for more than a week into the regular season. Hicks needs to find a way to avoid his one to two injured list stints per seasons. It’s the last piece of the puzzle for a player who saved his career and was awarded life-changing money.

Hicks’s 137 games played last season were the most of his career, and he still missed time due to injury. He’s not going to play in every game this season since no one does that anymore, and certainly not a Yankee, and because he will miss at least the first few series of the season. Given his past and the fact he will already be dipping into his cushion on this number, I don’t think he will get there. Under.

Gleyber Torres: 25 home runs
The Yankees have Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton and their best player in 2019 and possibly beyond might be Gleyber Torres. The 22-year-old middle infielder was an All-Star in his first season, carrying the Yankees for the first few weeks of his arrival before hitting a wall in the dog days of the season.

Torres finished third in the AL Rookie of the Year of voting behind Shohei Otani and Miguel Andujar though he would have won it seemingly any other year than 2018. Despite missing the beginning of the season to get more at-bats in Triple-A (and so the Yankees could circumvent the service time calendar) and a few weeks around the All-Star break, Torres still hit .271/.340/.480 with 24 home runs as a 21-year-old. He was reportedly asked for in every deal Brian Cashman tried to make or did make, and was deemed “untouchable”, even if the Yankees supposedly don’t believe in such a word, and rightfully so.

As excited as I am for this Yankees season and the first season in what was always expected to be the first season of this window of opportunity, I’m especially excited to see how Torres grows and adjusts to a league that will certainly have adjusted to him after what he did last year. A sophomore slump for Torres? I don’t see it. Over.

James Paxton: 160 1/3 innings
When you look at James Paxton’s numbers, you see a pitcher with not a lot of miles on his arm and just 582 1/3 innings as a now 30-year-old. The reason there isn’t a lot of miles on his arm is because there’s other problems with his arm, and his shoulder and his back, and so on.

Did I want the Yankees to trade for James Paxton? Eh. I was hoping if Justus Sheffield were to be traded he would be traded in a deal for a better starting pitching option, but I have to assume Paxton was the best option.

In theory, Paxton is a great fit as a power left-hander pitching half of his games in Yankee. The problem is Paxton’s career high for starts is 28 and innings is 160 1/3, and they both came last season. It would be a miracle if Paxton were to get through the 2019 unscathed to start 32 times and give the Yankees 200 innings. Until he has a season in which he’s able to avoid the injured list even once, it’s hard to believe it will happen. Under.

Aaron Judge: 118.5 walks
The number most people care about when it comes to Aaron Judge is home runs. and rightfully so. But after that it should be walks.

Judge led the league with 127 walks in 2017 and was on a 110-walk pace last season if not for the broken wrist (he ended up with 76). When Judge is getting his walks, you know he’s going right, and he’s setting the table for the guys behind him and tiring the pitcher on the mound for Giancarlo Stanton and Gary Sanchez.

If were up to me, I would bat Judge leadoff. I get that Aaron Hicks is a solid leadoff candidate, but he’s not Judge. Judge has a .409 on-base percentage over the last two seasons and seems to always be in full counts. He’s not going to give away an at-bat or swing at the first pitch and ground out to short. I want the best hitter on the team to get the most at-bats over the course of a season and the best hitter on the team is Judge. It’s certainly not Brett Gardner. Over.

Masahiro Tanaka: 13.5 wins
Masahiro Tanaka has never thrown 200 innings in the regular season for the Yankees. He came within one out (199 2/3 innings) in 2016, but aside from that his best season was 178 1/3 in 2017.

Another thing Tanaka hasn’t done is win more than 14 games. He’s won 13, 12, 14, 13 and 12. And while I’m not big on pitcher’s win totals since it’s more of a team effort and a lot more is needed that the pitcher simply going at least five innings and pitching well, it’s definitely shocking Tanaka has been unable to reach even 15 wins in what has been a very good career in the majors (64-34 with a 3.59 ERA in 132 starts).

I expect a big season out of Tanaka. Why? Well, the Yankees need him to have a big season. With Luis Severino out for at least the first month of the season, James Paxton coming off a career high in innings last season with 160 1/3, which is worrisome that that’s his high and also that he’s coming off of it given his injury history and CC Sabathia starting the season on the injured list and knowing he will only pitch 150-160 innings at most. J.A. Happ might be the Yankees’ most reliable starting pitcher at this time, and he’s a 36-year-old, who relies heavily on a 92-mph fastball, and the last time we saw him the Red Sox were having their way with him at Fenway Park.

Tanaka needs to give the Yankees quality starts (and starts period), especially at the beginning of the season with two-thirds of the rotation out. If he does that, with this offense, against the crap teams they will see in April, Tanaka will be well on his way to crushing this win total. Over.

Brett Gardner: .340 on-base percentage
Brett Gardner was pretty much the Yankees’ everyday leadoff hitter through the end of August. Sure, there were a few games sprinkled in where he didn’t hit at the top of the order, but it wasn’t until September when he became the team’s No. 9 hitter … when he played.

Gardner looked finish last season. He finished at .236/.322/.368, which are catcher-like numbers for a guy who was given the chance at the most at-bats by the team for the first five months of the season. I didn’t want Gardner back in 2019 and wanted the team to go in a different direction like Michael Brantley, who the Astros signed, and will undoubtedly have a big hit or hits against the Yankees in the postseason. Because Clint Frazier would need time to get back to playing baseball every day after losing most of the 2018 season, the Yankees couldn’t go into 2019 thinking he would be a full-time Major Leaguer. So they brought Gardner back on a one-year, $7.5 million deal, thinking his veteran leadership and clubhouse presence were needed and that his sharp decline last season wasn’t indicative of what he has left in the tank.

Gardner was supposed to be part of an outfield rotation, which would limit his playing time and save his legs over the course of 162 games. But now with Hicks out, Gardner is the team’s starting center fielder, and likely leadoff hitter since Aaron Boone is petrified of having Aaron Judge lead off and giving the most at-bats to his team’s best hitter.

Gardner is no longer a small piece to the puzzle and role player on the 2019 Yankees. At least for the beginning of the season, the team needs him to be pre-2018 Brett Gardner. I just don’t see that happening. Under.

Bullpen: 1.5 losses with a lead after six innings
Once again, the bullpen is the strength of the Yankees. With a healthy Dellin Betances, the bullpen also boasts Aroldis Chapman, Zack Britton, Adam Ottavino and Chad Green. No other bullpen in the league could lose David Robertson and get better, but the Yankees might have (even if I wanted the Yankees to bring Robertson back). Jonathan Holder would be a Top 3 reliever on most teams in the majors, but on the Yankees he’s at best sixth.

Last season, the Yankees hadn’t lost a game all season in which they led after eight innings until the Sunday Night Baseball disaster in Boston to cap off the four-day sweep at the hands of the Red Sox and officially take the Yankees out of the division race. A four-plus month run of not losing late games is an impressive feat, but this year I’m upping the ante.

I’m taking the under on this one and giving myself a one-game cushion for the bullpen to blow a lead with nine outs to get. (The number was initially 1, but I adjusted it due to Betances’ early-season absence.) That’s how good I think this bullpen will be. Under.

Giancarlo Stanton: 200 strikeouts
Giancarlo Stanton was OK in his first season as Yankee. Yes, a .266/.343/.509 hitter with 38 home runs and 100 RBIs was just OK.

Stanton was bad with runners in scoring position (.241/.322/.379) and pretty much just bad with anyone on base (.236/.315/.429). His problems were magnified at the Stadium since he was a .229/.311/.468 hitter at home, opposed to a .300/.374/.547 hitter on the road.

I can count Stanton’s big hits from 2018 on one hand, and possibly even have a couple fingers left over. Opening Day in Toronto, his two home run game against Dallas Keuchel and his walk-off home run at the Stadium against the Mariners. That’s it? I remember his 2018 season for what he didn’t do, which was anything with runners on in a truly big moment. He was nowhere to be found in the wild-card game until the game was out of reach, and then he hit a 443-foot home run, which was the hardest postseason home run hit in the Statcast era, and in the ALDS he couldn’t have been worse, going 4-for-18 with four singles and leaving a small village on base in the series.

Here are the most common excuses from the Stanton fan club heard last season:

1. He’s with a new organization
2. He’s in a new league and has to learn new pitchers
3. He’s playing his home games in colder weather at the beginning and end of the season
4. He needs to get acclimated and adjusted to living in a new city

Maybe some or all of those are true, but they are no longer valid. Not in Year 2, not in 2019. Unfortunately, we can’t go back and redo what happened in October, we only know it can’t happen again. As a Marlin, Stanton would supposedly go to Europe during the MLB postseason since it was too painful to watch. Well, he better change his approach at the plate and with runners on or he’s going to being going to Europe a lot during the World Series as a Yankee. Under.

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My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!