Blogs – Keefe To The City

Oct 5, 2026

Yankees Thoughts: Getting Ready for ALDS Game 2

The best pitcher in the league will try to save the Yankees’ season.

1. After wallowing in the result of Game 1 on Sunday, I’m ready for Game 2, and I know Cam Schlittler will be as well. The Yankees have the best pitcher in the league going on an extra day’s rest in the biggest game of the season to save their season. If the Yankees can’t win Schlittler’s starts in this series, then nothing else matters. They have to win both of his starts (Games 2 and 5) and one other game (Game 3 since Drew Rasmussen will pitch Game 4) in order to win the series.

2. Schlittler faced the Rays three times this season: April 12 in Tampa, July 6 in Tampa and September 24 in New York. The April 12 and July 6 starts are the only meaningful starts, though, since the September 24 start came after both teams had clinched their playoff positions, with Schlittler just going through the motions and trying to get through his last start of the season without getting hurt. Here are the two starts that mattered:

April 12: 5 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 8 K

July 6: 8 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 8 K

Schlittler was OK in the first start (his fourth of the season) and then was the version of him we have come to know over the last six months in the second start. If he were to provide the April 12 start in Game 2 on Monday, I don’t know that the Yankees will win. If he were to provide the July 6 start in Game 2 on Monday, the series will likely be tied. If he’s somewhere in between the two performances, the series will likely be tied.

3. I know Schlittler will pitch well in Game 2. I don’t know that the offense will show up.

The real postseason is the ALDS and beyond. The Wild Card Series is a gimmicky money grab for the owners to get an extra eight to 12 postseason games for revenue. (The Red Sox reached the postseason because of a miraculous five-week run in the middle of the summer, and the Astros reached the postseason with the lowest win total for a postseason team in history because they play in the AL Central, and both teams were easily and quickly eliminated.) It’s no surprise that when the “real” postseason began on Saturday, the real Yankees showed up. The Yankees who can’t hit elite starting pitching, can’t make contact, can’t put the ball in play and produce mostly pathetic at-bats in losing efforts. The offense we have seen eventually get eliminated in every postseason in the Aaron Boone era.

4. What took place on Saturday gave me flashbacks to Games 1 and 2 of the ALDS last year when Kevin Gausman and Trey Yesavage mowed down left-handed-heavy Yankees lineups with breaking pitches moving away from batters. It was too easy. Rasmussen did the same thing over and over and over to each Yankees batter with the exception of the lone right-handed bat in George Lombard Jr., and unsurprisingly, Lombard Jr. had the best at-bats of the game against Rasmussen. The eight left-handed Yankees didn’t make Rasmussen work, didn’t challenge him and never had him in a jam or on the ropes. It was embarrassing.

5. Freddy Peralta isn’t Rasmussen, but Peralta also isn’t the pitcher he was with the Mets this season either. Peralta had a 4.99 ERA, 1.478 WHIP and 4.46 FIP over 22 starts with the Mets. He had a 3.25 ERA, 1.012 WHIP and 3.93 FIP over 10 starts with the Rays. The Rays told Peralta to work out of the stretch and stop throwing so many fastballs. He listened and the results followed.

Peralta doesn’t provide length. He went five innings against the Yankees in May (and allowed three earned runs). He went five innings against the Yankees on Opening Day 2025 (and allowed two earned runs). Peralta’s ceiling for Game 2 should be five innings. If he gives the Rays anything more than that, then it means the Yankees’ Game 1 offense showed up for Game 2, and the Yankees will be in a world of shit.

6. I wouldn’t use the Game 1 lineup in Game 2. The Rays are going to have the same game plan with Peralta for an all-lefty lineup that they had with Rasmussen: elevated fastballs and breaking balls that will move toward the right-handed batter’s box. (Just like Gausman and Yesavage.) Either the left-handed Yankees change their approach (unlikely to happen based on hundreds of games and tens of thousands of plate appearances) or they change their lineup.

I provided each Yankee’s career numbers against Rasmussen before Game 1, and they were all bad, and they all got worse. Their numbers against Peralta are much better:

Ben Rice: 2-for-5, HR, K
Cody Bellinger: 6-for-14, 2B, HR, 4 BB, 5 K
Luis Garcia: 3-for-12, 2 2B, 3 K
Spencer Jones: 0-for-2, 2 K
George Lombard Jr.: Has never faced Peralta
Jazz Chisholm: 2-for-11, 2B, HR, 4 BB, 5 K
Trent Grisham: 1-for-8, 2B, 3 K
Austin Wells: 1-for-2, HR, BB, K
Ryan McMahon: 1-for-14, 3 BB, 4 K

Paul Goldschmidt: 9-for-35, 5 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 10 K
Anthony Volpe: 2-for-4, 2B, HR, 2 K
Heliot Ramos: 1-for-4, BB, K
Jose Caballero: 0-for-2, 2K
Giancarlo Stanton: Has never faced Peralta
Ali Sanchez: Has never faced Peralta

You could argue Goldschmidt should play given the number of times he has seen Peralta, but most of that was a younger Goldschmidt from his National League days. I would stay with Garcia and save Goldschmidt for a possible pinch-hit opportunity.

I would love to get Grisham out of the lineup, but that would mean Ramos playing the outfield, and for as untrustworthy as Grisham is, Ramos takes the meaning of untrustworthy to another level. I would be OK with Caballero playing the outfield, but I don’t think Boone will remove one of his favorites in Grisham.

McMahon can’t play. It’s not because of his lack of success against Peralta, but that lack of success reinforces the argument to sit him. So then it becomes a choice between playing Volpe, who has had success against Peralta, but has played one major-league game at third base, or Caballero, who has struck out in both plate appearances against Peralta, but has sufficient third-base experience. (Ex-Ray Caballero does have a penchant for big moments against his former team.)

There are a few possible moves to be made. At least one of them needs to be made. I can’t see the Game 1 lineup in Game 2.

7. This is what I wrote about the pitching matchup in Game 1:

The Yankees can’t be playing from behind by multiple runs against this Rays team, especially in a Rasmussen start. Cole doesn’t have to be great for long. He just needs to be great for as long as he’s in the game.

Change Rasmussen to Schlittler and Cole to Peralta, and the game plan for Game 1 for the Yankees is the game plan for Game 2 for the Rays. Unless the Rays are going to hit Schlittler in a way he hasn’t been hit in his career, the Rays’ goal will be to drive up his pitch count. They were sort of able to do so in April, but weren’t able to do so in July. The Rays’ bullpen hasn’t had to pitch with anything on the line in nearly two weeks, so it is well-rested and will be part of the game the moment Peralta gets into trouble, if he gets into trouble.

8. This game is on the Yankees’ offense. We know Schlittler will pitch well enough for them to win. But Schlittler took a no-decision or loss 15 times this season when he pitched long enough to qualify for a win and allowed three earned runs or fewer. The offense can’t be trusted, and I don’t trust them. I don’t think it will surprise anyone if Peralta is working on a no-hitter in the fifth inning or if Schlittler comes out of the game in the seventh having not allowed a run and the Yankees aren’t winning. It’s great that the Yankees worked out at their own complex on Sunday and used their Trajekt machine to prepare for Peralta and Game 2. But they had seen Rasmussen four times this season and had access to the Trajekt all year and before Game 1 and it did them no good. The only thing that matters on Monday are tangible results on the field and the most tangible of all: a Game 2 win.

9. From 2018-2025, the Boone Yankees have lost Game 1 of a best-of-5 or best-of-7 series four times and have lost all four series. They are 3-14 in games in those series. They have never won a best-of-5 or best-of-7 series against a non-AL Central team and are 0-6 in such series. They are going to have to do something they have never done in the previous eight years to overcome their current ALDS deficit.

10. I expect the Yankees to even the series on Monday, and I expect the series to go to the Bronx with the Yankees having home-field advantage in what will become a best-of-3. I expect this simply because I expect Schlittler to be great because he is great and has delivered in his three career postseason starts to date. But he can’t do it alone. He will need the offense to do much more than it did on Saturday, which was nothing. As long as the offense just sucks and isn’t historically bad, the series will be tied and the Yankees will avoid facing elimination.

Blogs • Yankees • Yankees Thoughts

Oct 4, 2026

ALDS Game 1 Thoughts: You Can Predict Baseball

The Yankees were one-hit in a 1-0 loss in Game 1 of the ALDS. Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.

1. The last meaningful game the Yankees and Rays played during the regular season foreshadowed what unfolded on Saturday. On September 22, Drew Rasmussen no-hit the Yankees until the seventh inning in the win that clinched the Rays the division and on Saturday, Rasmussen no-hit the Yankees into the eighth inning in a win that gave the Rays a 1-0 series lead in the ALDS.

2. The Yankees went 1-for-24 with two walks and 10 strikeouts against Rasmussen. Rasmussen does to the Yankees what Cam Schlittler does to the Red Sox, and if not for the Yankees getting to him in July, I would say what he does to them is even more impressive than what Schlittler does to the Red Sox (and even with that July start, it still might be).

3. It was a bad game. It was both frustrating and miserable to watch. The Yankees had one hit in the game on an Austin Wells double with two outs in the eighth, and Wells was immediately erased by idiotically trying to stretch an easy stand-up double into a triple.

“I felt like if I got to third there, I was almost guaranteeing that if we got another ball on the turf there, we were going to score a run and tie the game,” Wells said.

I have no idea what that means. Wells believes if he got to third then the next batter would have put the ball in play on the turf and that would have led to a run? Not a groundout?

4. “I was committed to being [at third] and thought I had a good chance to get there,” Wells said, despite being thrown out by 10 feet.

“I think you have to take risks,” Wells said, “but in that situation, obviously the risk was wrong.”

I believe Wells forgot how many outs there were, which wouldn’t be the first time he has done so. Because there was no value in getting to third there. The only reason standing on third there makes a difference is if the following plate appearance includes a wild pitch or passed ball, or if there is an infield single. The risk greatly outweighed the reward and it was a foolish mistake for a player who has two triples in 1,414 plate appearances as a major leaguer (regular season and postseason). Based on that, there was a 0.14 percent chance of him hitting a triple.

5. I don’t think it would have mattered if Wells had stopped at second or somehow made it to third. Does anyone think the next hitter, whether it was Ryan McMahon or a pinch hitter, would have come through? Either Rasmussen would have easily retired the next batter or Kevin Cash would have gone to Bryan Baker to retire the batter. It likely wouldn’t have mattered with the way those two looked in Game 1, but I sure would have liked to find out.

6. TBS showed that it was the first time in Yankees history that the team was no-hit through six innings, so it was also the first time they were no-hit for seven innings and for 7 2/3 innings. It was a dismal offensive performance for a lineup featuring eight left-handed bats against Rasmussen. But maybe that’s part of it. Rasmussen was able to stay with what was working for every hitter other than George Lombard Jr., and unsurprisingly, Lombard Jr. had the best at-bats against Rasmussen of the game. It was too reminiscent of the Yankees’ approach and performance against righties Kevin Gausman and Trey Yesavages in the first two games of the ALDS last year.

7. I advocated for Carlos Rodon to start Game 1, but understood why he was held back to start either Game 3 or 4. The Game 1 loss wasn’t on Gerrit Cole, who has a penchant for not performing in the postseason unless there aren’t fans allowed at the game or unless he’s facing an AL Central opponent. Cole pitched fine. One earned run (on a solo home run, of course) over five innings was fine. But it’s not like he was dealing outside of one Jonathan Aranda swing. He gave up two balls off the wall and only had one 1-2-3 inning in his outing.

8. Before Game 1, I wrote the following:

The Yankees could lose both Rasmussen starts and still win the series.

This still holds true. The Rays had to win Game 1. If they lost Game 1, they could potentially be swept. They have to win the Rasmussen starts and one more start, just like the Yankees have to win the Schlittler starts and one more game.

I believe that many more things have to go right for the Rays to win three games than need to go right for the Yankees to win three games.

I still believe this.

The Rays are going to get good-to-great starting pitching and superb managing and will play exceptional defense.

They got the great starting pitching and superb managing and played flawless defense.

But they have to win the Rasmussen starts and win one of the non-Rasmussen starts and get production from their Big 3 at the top of the order and get shutdown performances from their bullpen.

They won the first Rasmussen start, the only run of the game came from their Big 3 and Baker — the only reliever to appear in the game — was unhittable in the ninth.

9. I also wrote:

The Yankees could lose both Rasmussen starts and still win the series.

The Rays need to win both Rasmussen starts (Game 1 and Game 4) and one other game. The Yankees need to win both Cam Schlittler starts (Game 2 and Game 5) and one other game. That one other game for both teams is Game 3. The Yankees have to win Game 2 and Game 3. Rasmussen will pitch for a second time in the series (Game 4) before Schlittler does (Game 5). The Yankees can’t go into Rasmussen’s next start down 2-1 in the series.

10. If the Yankees lose on Saturday, that will be a wrap on the series. This isn’t going to be like 2001 or 2017 where the Yankees came back down 2-0 in the ALDS. Not with Rasmussen waiting. He’s their kryptonite, just like Cliff Lee was with the Phillies and Rangers against the Yankees. As a fan, you have to plan to lose Rasmussen’s starts, and because of that, the Yankees now have to win the next two games. In order to win the next two games, the Yankees will need to win the next game first. And in the most important game of the season, they have the best pitcher in the league going, and I believe he will send the series to the Bronx tied at 1.

Blogs • Yankees • Yankees Thoughts

Oct 2, 2026

Yankees Thoughts: Getting Ready for ALDS Game 1

Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.

1. This is the best I have felt about the Yankees in 2026. Coming off the two-game destruction of the entire Red Sox’ organization, the Yankees are flying high with the ALDS set to begin, and I’m flying equally as high. Who needs alcohol or drugs when your favorite baseball team beats the absolute shit out of your least favorite baseball team?

But when Drew Rasmussen throws the first pitch of the ALDS to Ben Rice on Saturday night at Tropicana Field, I will immediately be grounded. I’m already on my way back down like the hysterical Uncle Albert floating to the floor in Mary Poppins. Because while basking in the blowout of the Red Sox and the misery-fueled aftermath for their fans, I recognize the Rays are not the Red Sox.

2. The Rays don’t boast a punchless lineup or a manager that makes me appreciate Aaron Boone. They got to sit at home this week and watch the Yankees put their season on the line and force their best two starters to make an extra start for a reason. The Rays had the best record in the American League for a reason. The Rays earned their bye to the ALDS and home-field advantage in the AL playoffs for as long as they are alive in the playoffs. They held off the Yankees from June 28 through Game 162. Each time the Yankees made a play to overtake them, the Rays answered with lengthy winning streaks.

3. Cam Schlittler against the Red Sox is what the Rays’ Game 1 starter Drew Rasmussen has been against the Yankees in his career. This is Rasmussen’s career line against the Yankees: 59.2 IP, 38 H, 12 R, 12 ER, 13 BB, 70 K, 3 HR, 1.81 ERA, 0.855 WHIP. He has held the Yankees to a .180/.228/.246 slash line in his career.

The good news is the Yankees did beat Rasmussen up at the Trop (where Game 1 will be played) on July 9: 2.1 IP, 7 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 HR.

The bad news is that in his other three starts against the Yankees this season, Rasmussen pitched to this line: 19.2 IP, 7 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 4 BB, 24 K.

Rasmussen blanked the Yankees for six innings (and allowed one baserunner) in Tampa in April. He shut them out for seven innings in the Bronx in May. He got lit up by them at the Trop in July and then one-hit them for 6 2/3 innings (with 11 strikeouts) in September. He’s the single-worst possible pitcher for the Yankees to face in the league and they will have to face him in Game 1 and then again in Game 4 (if there is a Game 4).

4. Here are the Yankees’ individual numbers against Rasmussen:

Ben Rice: 1-for-16, HR, 7 K
Cody Bellinger: 4-for-17, 2 BB, 2 K
Luis Garcia: 0-for-6, K
Spencer Jones: 0-for-3, 2 K
George Lombard Jr.: 0-for-2, K
Jazz Chisholm: 2-for-14, 2B, 3 BB, 6 K
Trent Grisham: 6-for-16, HR, 4 K
Austin Wells: 1-for-8, HR, BB, K
Ryan McMahon: 1-for-10, 2B, BB, 7 K

Aaron Judge: 2-for-16, 2 BB, 8 K
Anthony Volpe: 0-for-11, BB, 7 K
Paul Goldschmidt: 2-for-9, 2 BB, 4 K
Jose Caballero: 1-for-6, 2 K
Giancarlo Stanton: 2-for-4
Heliot Ramos: 1-for-3, 2B, K
Amed Rosario: 0-for-2
Ali Sanchez: Has never faced Rasmussen

Outside of Grisham, it’s bad pretty much all around. That doesn’t mean he’s unhittable. Entering Game 2 of the 2017 ALDS and facing Corey Kluber, the Yankees’ roster was a collective 23-for-148 with eight walks, 44 strikeouts and a .155/.204/.250 slash line against Kluber for their careers. They chased him in the third inning in that game (2.2 IP, 7 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, 2 HR) and then chased him in the fourth inning five days later (3.2 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 6 K, 2 HR) to win the series. No, I don’t feel good about the Yankees having to face Rasmussen on Saturday and possibly twice within the next week, but it doesn’t mean the Yankees can’t beat him.

5. The postseason is different. In Rasmussen’s only postseason start (as a Ray back in 2021), he was pulled before recording an out in the third inning at Fenway Park. He faced 11 batters and six of them reached as he lasted only 33 pitches. Five years is an eternity in baseball and Rasmussen is now a seasoned veteran and an All-Star in each of the last two seasons. He was very good back then too (2.44 ERA in 10 starts and 20 games with the Rays that year), but he’s one of the best pitchers in baseball now.

Because Schlittler likely won’t pitch in the games Rasmussen starts (unless the Rays hold him back for Game 5), Rasmussen’s starts represent the only time the time(s) the Rays will have the starting pitching advantage in the series. If the Yankees win when Rasmussen starts, it will be nearly impossible for the Rays to win the series because it will mean having to win all of Schlittler’s starts. If the Yankees win Game 1, the path to a series win for the Rays becomes incredibly difficult to envision.

Unless the Yankees are going to beat up Rasmussen on Saturday like they did in July (and that’s impossible to expect), the way to beat him is the plan the Red Sox’ unsuccessfully attempted against Schlittler in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series: keep it close until he’s out of the game.

Rasmussen averaged just under six innings in his 30 starts this season, but he never pitched more than seven innings. His season-high for pitches was 114, which he threw in his final start of the season in the division-clinching game at Yankee Stadium on September 22. He will start Game 1 of the ALDS on 10 days’ rest. It’s possible there’s some rust initially after having not pitched in a third of a month, or it’s possible he’s so rested that he comes out dotting the corners and racking up strikeouts.

6. However Rasmussen comes out (whether rusty or dominant), Gerrit Cole needs to match him. That’s a lot to ask, considering Cole is pitching as poorly as he ever has a Yankee. The only other time Cole looked this bad was in the final month of 2021. That month-long slog foreshadowed his 2021 one-game playoff performance at Fenway Park, in which he lost the game after four batters. If Cole pitches on Saturday like he did in September, the Yankees will be down 1-0 in the series.

Thanks to the day off between Games 1 and 2 and with Schlittler going in Game 2, Cole doesn’t need to give the Yankees length. If he empties the tank and only gives the Yankees five spectacular innings (or even four), he will have done his job. The Yankees’ bullpen is well-rested. It had one high-leverage plate appearance in the Wild Card Series and Paul Blackburn induced a double play in it. The bullpen is so rested that Aaron Boone had to use his high-end relievers in a Game 2 blowout just to get them work in. The bullpen can cover as many innings as needed. They just can’t help if a game is ruined early.

7. And that’s what I’m most worried about with Cole: ruining the game early. Allowing a crooked number in the first or second inning can’t happen. The Yankees can’t be playing from behind by multiple runs against this Rays team, especially in a Rasmussen start. Cole doesn’t have to be great for long. He just needs to be great for as long as he’s in the game. I don’t expect him to have the kind of start Schlittler or Fried had against the Red Sox because I don’t expect much from this version of Cole or postseason Cole. I recognize his overall postseason career numbers are strong, but as a Yankee, when there have been fans in the stands or the opposition hasn’t been an AL Central team, he hasn’t been very good.

8. The games at the Trop won’t feel like road games because the crowd will be mostly Yankees fans. The Rays are opening the upper deck for the series due to ticket demand and that demand is coming from Yankees fans. It’s going to sound like Yankee Stadium inside the Trop on Saturday and Monday (and possibly next Saturday too). But the turf, the oddities of the field and roof and everything that comes with the 36-year-old dome will favor the Rays.

9. If the Yankees play clean baseball, they will win the series. They could lose both Rasmussen starts and still win the series. I believe that many more things have to go right for the Rays to win three games than need to go right for the Yankees to win three games. The Rays are going to get good-to-great starting pitching and superb managing and will play exceptional defense. But they have to win the Rasmussen starts and win one of the non-Rasmussen starts and get production from their Big 3 at the top of the order and get shutdown performances from their bullpen. (The Red Sox went in to the Wild Card Series with the No. 1 bullpen in the majors in 2026 and the Yankees scored 15 runs against it in 6 2/3 innings. The Rays had the 14th-best bullpen in the majors this season.)

10. The Yankees own the better rotation, the better lineup, the better bullpen and more power (they finished second in the majors in home runs by three without Judge and Stanton, while the Rays finished 22nd). The Rays have the edge in defense, manager and home-field advantage in terms of the actual field and not the crowd. Because of the slop in the AL Central side of the AL bracket, whichever team wins this series is not only going to the ALCS, but to the World Series. That team should be the Yankees, and if they can win Game 1 on Saturday, it will be the Yankees.

Blogs • Yankees

Oct 2, 2026

Getting Ready for Rays

The ALDS begins on Saturday at Tropicana Field.

The last two days have been thoroughly enjoyable. I believe I have consumed every available social media post, video, blog and podcast of depressed Red Sox fans, who are angry, embarrassed, sad and miserable about what took place in the Wild Card Series. But now it’s time to focus on the ALDS and the Rays.

With the ALDS set to begin on Saturday at Tropicana Field, let’s go through some questions and comments from readers.

I think Carlos Rodon should start Game 1. – Charles

The Yankees announced earlier that Gerrit Cole would start Game 1. Aaron Boone made a comment that Rodon would start one of the two home games, either Game 3 or Game 4. If Rodon is going to start a home game and we know Cam Schlittler is going to start Games 2 and 5, then this is what the rotation will be for the ALDS:

Game 1: Gerrit Cole
Game 2: Cam Schlittler
Game 3: Max Fried/Carlos Rodon
Game 4: Max Fried/Carlos Rodon
Game 5: Cam Schlittler

For me to advocate for Rodon to start a game and even Game 1 says everything you need to know about his current abilities versus Cole’s. I despise Rodon. He was a clown for all of 2023, untrustworthy in 2024, a postseason disaster in 2025 and made only 16 starts in 2026. But those 16 starts in 2026 were the best he has looked as a Yankee, and arguably in his career. He didn’t give up more than three earned runs in any start, pitched to a 2.67 ERA and allowed only seven home runs in 84 1/3 innings. In his last start of the season on September 22 against the Rays with the Rays trying to clinch the division at Yankee Stadium, Rodon shut them down: 8 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 8 K.

That night, the Rays won the division in the second game of a doubleheader, and the following day, after a night of celebrating in New York City, the Rays played a hungover, meaningless game. They sat Yandy Diaz and Chandler Simpson, pulled Junior Caminero after two at-bats and called Mason Englert up from Triple-A to start. They treated the game like a spring training exhibition and were blown out 9-2 by the Yankees. Cole started that game and pitched to this line: 5.2 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 8 K, 1 HR. It was a fine start in a vacuum, but factor in the Rays’ lack determination to win a meaningless game after a night on the town and with a lesser lineup, and it wasn’t very good. But that’s mostly what Cole was in his final starts of the season: not very good.

I’m a big believer in the Yankees being run as a meritocracy. It’s why I wanted Spencer Jones playing over Trent Grisham before Grisham got hurt. It’s why I wanted Anthony Volpe sent down in 2023 and 2024 and 2025 and 2026. It’s why I wanted Alex Verdugo out of the starting lineup in 2024 and it’s why I want Ryan McMahon on the bench in 2026. You should have to earn your playing time, your at-bats and your starts. Rodon has earned it this season.

I understand wanting to start the lefties at Yankee Stadium to attempt to negate the short porch, and if the Yankees were playing at home in Game 1, I think it’s possible Rodon would be starting Game 1 (though I can’t say for certain since the Yankees cater to Cole). If Rodon and Cole are both going to pitch in the series, having Rodon pitch at home and Cole on the road does make more sense even if I don’t trust this version of Cole.

Which position players on the Wild Card Series roster get left off the ALDS roster? – Steve

Would you dump Giancarlo Stanton from the bench since the Yankees will carry at least 11 pitchers in this series? – Rick

These two questions are nearly impossible to answer because we don’t know the status of Aaron Judge or how many pitchers the Yankees will take on the ALDS roster. The Yankees took 10 pitchers for the Wild Card Series. With this year’s ALDS having a day off between Games 1 and 2, they could get by with 10 pitchers again, but I think they go with 11, and Ryan Weathers is the addition.

I think the first player off the roster then becomes Amed Rosario. The Rays are starting Drew Rasmussen (righty) in Game 1 and probably Nick Martinez (righty) in Game 2. Other rotation options are Griffin Jax (righty), Shane McClanahan (lefty) and Ian Seymour (lefty). The only other potential left-handed pitchers on their roster are Garrett Cleavinger, Cam Booser and Steven Matz, and they are all pretty bad, including against lefties. If the Yankees needed a right-handed bat to pinch hit and Rosario wasn’t on the roster, they would have Paul Goldschmidt, Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Volpe, Heliot Ramos and Jose Caballero as options. (And Ali Sanchez, but I’m more likely to appear in this series than he is.) Rosario is the easy choice to leave off.

Now if Judge is healthy, someone else has to come off the roster. I fear it may be Stanton, but I would make it Ramos. Ramos can’t be trusted in the outfield, and while three at-bats in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series is the smallest of sample sizes, he looked overmatched for the moment. I understand he had a .907 OPS against lefties this year, but the Rays don’t have many lefties and there would be better pinch-hit options against them. And with the Yankees’ left-on-left success, you may not even need a pinch hitter.

If the Yankees go 0-2 at the Trop, who do you want to start Game 3? – Aaron

I would say Fried, but if the Yankees are in that hole, it doesn’t really matter if it’s Fried or Rodon since both would have to pitch anyway with the other going in Game 4. The Yankees need to win one of the first two games at the Trop.

Boone did not need to do much in the Wild Card Series. What do you see as his pitfalls for the Tampa series? – Paul

It’s easy to manage when your offense scores nine runs like it did in both Wild Card Series games and when your starting pitchers give you length like they both did in the Wild Card Series. Boone didn’t have to do much against the Red Sox. The only move he really had to decide on was to bring Paul Blackburn into Game 1 in relief of Schlittler with a runner on and the Yankees leading 2-0. That move worked. However, Boone admitted he got greedy and should have pulled Schlittler after he got Willson Contreras out to start the inning, which was his initial plan and what he told Schlittler was the plan.

Boone will have to be at his best in the ALDS. He’s not going to outmanage Kevin Cash, the best manager in baseball. He needs to match him though. He’s not going against Chad Tracy, who just managed arguably the worst two consecutive games imaginable. If Boone screws up, the Rays will take advantage. The only way to remove Boone from the equation is for the starting pitchers and offense to perform like they did against the Red Sox, but that is an impossible ask against the team that finished with the best record in the American League.

Tampa Bay schooled Boone in the art of baseball in the game where they clinched the division. Do you think, based on the Wild Card Series, Boone learned anything from that beatdown? – Bret

We’re in Year 9 of Boone and he still makes the same mistakes he made in Year 1. I don’t think the loss to the Rays two weeks ago turned on a lightbulb that will change him as a manager. He had very little impact on the Wild Card Series. He had the best starting pitcher against the Red Sox in the history of the game pitching Game 1 and one of the best starting pitchers of this generation pitching Game 2 and his offense scored 18 runs in 16 innings.

If the Rays have a runner on third with less than two outs, they will bunt to get that run in. They used this play in the division clincher two weeks ago and throughout the season. The Rays don’t care about giving up outs, they care about scoring runs when they are readily available. Earlier this season, Boone claimed that the Rays’ use of the squeeze play to score when executed perfectly is indefensible. However, Joe Girardi explained during a game what is needed to defend the play. The Rays are going to use this play to score if given the opportunity. Accepting the situation as a lost cause isn’t good enough, and the Yankees need to attempt to defend it better.

I worry about the Yankees’ sloppiness making an appearance in this series, which will doom them and end their season if it does. If Grisham is playing center field and jogging to shallow fly balls like he’s shagging in batting practice or if the team can’t cleanly field bunts, hit the cut-off man and properly back up throws, the Rays will run wild. If the Rays are given free bases like Grisham gave Nate Eaton in the Wild Card Series, the Rays will take advantage. The Rays will score leadoff doubles. They will put the ball in play to move runners over and they will put pressure on the Yankees’ defense. The Boone era Yankees have always played messy baseball even if Boone claims that judgment is an exaggeration. This is not the team to play Boone baseball against.

Blogs • Yankees

Oct 1, 2026

So Long, Sonny Gray

The former Yankee took the loss in the game that ended the Red Sox’ season.

I liked Sonny Gray. I wanted to keep liking him too, but he made it impossible. Not because he wasn’t with the Yankees what he was at his best with the A’s (and what he has been since leaving the Yankees). It wasn’t even because of his performance, which was OK in 11 starts in 2017 (3.72 ERA and 4.87 FIP) and then abysmal in 27 starts and 30 games in 2018. It was because of how he handled his time in New York and how he evaluated his performance.

Long before exaggerating and flat-out lying about performances became the nightly routine it has become in the Yankees’ manager’s office and clubhouse, Gray was at the forefront of telling you that what you watched wasn’t how it should be interpreted in the Aaron Boone era. As Gray pitched to a 4.90 ERA and pitched himself out of the rotation in 2018, he frequently acted as though his efforts were better than the results showed.

In his last start of May 2018, Gray was destroyed by the Angels. He was given a 4-1 lead through the second inning and made it disappear almost as quickly as he got it. His line for the night: 3.2 IP, 7 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 3 BB, 7 K, 1 HR.

“I thought I commanded my two-seam well,” Gray said after his ERA ballooned to 5.98. “I think it was my four-seam that every time I threw it, it kind of leaked back over the middle of the plate. Slider was good. Yeah, I think the stuff was good.”

In 3 2/3 innings, Gray put 10 runners on base, walked three, allowed seven hits, allowed three extra-base hits, walked Kole Calhoun (.160/.195/.199), walked in a run and hit a batter. But there he was telling everyone his “stuff was good.” It was scary to think what Gray would look like if he didn’t have his “good stuff” and then we found out. For the next two months, he stayed in the rotation and continued to get the shit beat out of him. Every once in a while he would throw a gem just to make you think for a moment that maybe he figured it out only to follow it up with a disaster. The final straw came on August 1 when the 115-loss Orioles got to him for eight hits, seven earned runs and two walks over 2 2/3 innings in a loss. Gray was removed from the rotation after that performance and traded after the season.

Instead of becoming a young, controllable starting pitching success story for the Yankees, Gray was just another in the long line of young, controllable starting pitching failures Brian Cashman has acquired as Yankees general manager. (Maybe a healthy Ryan Weathers will end the drought?) After 28 seasons as general manager, Cashman has still failed to acquire a successful young, controllable starter. Gray, Jeff Weaver, Javier Vazquez, Michael Pineda, Nathan Eovaldi, James Paxton and Jameson Taillon all failed in New York and were traded or allowed to walk in free agency. They all blew up in the postseason or were left off postseason rosters completely.

There was a reason the Yankees gave up three of their better prospects in the summer of 2017 for Gray and there’s a reason why the team let him start Game 1 of the 2017 ALDS and Game 4 of the 2017 ALCS. There’s a reason why the Yankees let him keep starting all the way until August in 2018 even though he was nearly a guaranteed loss every time he took the ball. There’s a reason why so many teams were connected to him when the Yankees shopped him and why the Reds ultimately decided to trade for him and give him a $30.5 million extension after the trade, disregarding his awful 2018 season. And there’s a reason why David Ortiz said the following about Gray in 2015:

“The last few seasons, the toughest guy I’ve faced is Sonny Gray from Oakland. This kid’s stuff is legit … the first time I see this Gray kid on the mound, I can’t help but notice he’s 5’10” and skinny. He looks like the guy who fixes my computer at the Apple Store. I’m thinking, Here we go. This is gonna be fun. Then he took me for a ride, man. Fastball. Sinker. Slider. Curve … Whap. Whap. Whap. You have no idea what this kid is going to throw. He drives me crazy.”

The reason for all these things is that Gray has the ability, talent, stuff and repertoire to be a perennial Cy Young candidate. The pitcher Ortiz was talking about is the one who pitched to a 2.88 ERA over 491 innings in his first three seasons in the league and who shut out the Tigers over eight innings in Game 2 of the 2013 ALDS. That’s the pitcher the Yankees thought they were getting. That’s the pitcher I thought the Yankees were getting.

The Yankees essentially did get that pitcher … when they were on the road. When Gray was away from Yankee Stadium, he was his usual self, but when the Yankees were home, it was like watching Game 7 of the 2004 ALCS every start.

Home (15 games, 11 starts)
59.1 IP, 78 H, 47 R, 46 ER, 35 BB, 45 K, 11 HR, 6.98 ERA, 1.904 WHIP

Away (15 games, 12 starts)
71.0 IP, 60 H, 26 R, 26 ER, 22 BB, 78 K, 3 HR, 3.17 ERA, 1.155 WHIP

At Yankee Stadium, opposing batters teed off on him like a collective MVP candidate (.318/.406/.527), while on the road, opposing batters hit against him like they were a backup catcher (.226/.295/.320). Unfortunately, the Yankees couldn’t destroy the rest of their rotation by moving everyone around to accommodate Gray’s inability to pitch in the Bronx, so they instead made Austin Romine his personal catcher as if Gary Sanchez was the problem. When the hopeful magic trick of having Romine turn around Gray’s season proved ineffective, the Yankees continued to stick with the meaningless experiment.

The 2018 Yankees went 11-12 when Gray started and 89-50 in all other games, winning 100 games despite Gray’s miserable season. He was left off the postseason roster, and the second the season ended, Cashman went to work openly showing his displeasure with Gray’s performance and ending his Yankees tenure by saying things like “It hasn’t worked out thus far” and “I think that we’ll enter the winter, unfortunately, open-minded to a relocation” and “It’s probably best to try this somewhere else” and “Our intention is to move Sonny Gray and relocate him.”

On Gray’s first day as a Yankee, he met with the media and talked about how excited he was to be a Yankee. He went out of his way to pen a piece in The Players’ Tribune titled ‘New York, I’m Ready to Go.’ In it, he said, “I couldn’t be happier” to be a Yankee, wrote about watching the 2009 Yankees and how his new teammates “have been awesome” and how he was “welcomed with open arms.” Gray would go on to be a guest on CC Sabathia’s podcast to reinforce all of these thoughts.

Because of all this and because Gray went above and beyond to express his admiration for the Yankees and his happiness about being a Yankee, it made his comments in the winter upon signing with the Red Sox more than puzzling.

“I never wanted to go there in the first place,” Gray said of the Yankees, which seems odd since his 2017 piece in The Players’ Tribune is hundred of words saying the complete opposite.

“It’s easy to hate the Yankees,” Gray said, which is fine. It’s something I would expect anyone who joins the Red Sox to say, whether said in jest or not. But it comes off as fake when you factor in how every anti-Yankees claim Gray made at his first Red Sox press conference contradicts everything he said in 2017 and 2018.

“I just wasn’t myself,” Gray said of his time in New York. (Whose fault is that?) “I don’t know what led to that or anything.”

I think we know what led to that: pitching in New York. Here are Gray’s 2018 splits again:

Home (15 games, 11 starts)
59.1 IP, 78 H, 47 R, 46 ER, 35 BB, 45 K, 11 HR, 6.98 ERA, 1.904 WHIP

Away (15 games, 12 starts)
71.0 IP, 60 H, 26 R, 26 ER, 22 BB, 78 K, 3 HR, 3.17 ERA, 1.155 WHIP

The Yankees couldn’t lose a postseason game at Yankee Stadium against Gray, and they didn’t. With the help of a foreign substance on his neck, Gray looked to have his best stuff through the first three innings of Game 2 of the Wild Card Series. He had all six of his pitches working, and as a result, kept the Yankees off balance and off the scoreboard early. Luis Garcia got him for a solo home run to lead off the fourth, but that was it against Gray through four.

In the fifth, with the Yankees leading 1-0, Gray allowed a pair of ground-ball singles, and with two on and two outs, he was removed from the game after just 70 pitches. The only start in which he threw fewer pitches in all year came back on April 20 when he was removed from a game early due to hamstring tightness. His manager Chad Tracy had a bizarre answer for why he removed Gray after 70 pitches.

“We’re struggling to score runs,” Tracy said. “And when you get in spots where you’re struggling to score runs and you’re already trailing, you feel like you’ve got to be aggressive and go.”

I’m glad the Red Sox manager removed Gray because the team’s offense was struggling to score runs. If Tracy removed Gray because he didn’t want him to face the Yankees’ lineup for a third time, well, Gray doesn’t believe that was a good reason.

“I think I’m the best pitcher in the American League going through the order the third time. I think that’s a fact,” Gray said. “I would have liked to live or die with me in that moment, but that’s the competitor I am, and yeah, I think you can probably ask the guys, and they felt the same way.”

But Gray was removed and one of the runners he put on came around to score to give the Yankees a 2-0 lead in their eventual 9-2 blowout win. While it could have been anyone starting on the mound for the Red Sox in Game 2 and I would feel as good as I do today, Gray taking the L against the Yankees to end the Red Sox’ season has made everything about Wednesday’s win and the series win that much sweeter.

Wherever Gray’s next stop is, he’ll tell everyone he never wanted to go to the Red Sox in the first place, even though he had to waive his no-trade clause to go there. And that’s what I’m rooting for and every Yankees fan should be.