1. Juan Soto wasn’t Plan A for the Yankees this offseason. He was the only plan. And now that he will be a Met for the rest of his career, the Yankees are currently freaking out at the Winter Meetings in Dallas without a plan. At least without a plan worthy of being accepted by the fan base. Because there is no backup plan when you lose out on a generational bat. There is no backup plan when the remaining free-agent options are on the wrong side of 30, have low on-base percentages and hit right-handed.
Soto was always going to go to the highest bidder and he stayed true to his plan. Whichever team gave him $1 more than the other teams was going to get him whether that team was the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Phillies, Mariners, Reds or Tigers, it didn’t matter. Everyone always knew that about Soto from the moment he turned down the Nationals’ money and wouldn’t sign an extension with the Padres.
2. Soto went to the highest bidder, but there may have been other factors at play. No one knows what Soto’s relationship was with Aaron Judge. Judge said just a couple of weeks ago he hadn’t talked to Soto during the offseason, citing “giving him space” as the excuse why. Maybe Soto didn’t like playing for Aaron Boone and couldn’t foresee ever winning a championship with him at the helm. Maybe he didn’t trust Brian Cashman after he went a whole season without attempting to upgrade left field or first base. Maybe he didn’t like that Hal Steinbrenner didn’t care to have a relationship with him until he became a free agent. Maybe after sharing a field with the Yankees’ so-called top prospects (most of whom are similar to age as him but still in the lower and middle levels of the minor leagues) he figured the team’s long-term future was bleak. No one knows what Steve Cohen said to Soto when they met in California last month. No one knows what kind of relationship they formed and what promises were made.
3. I don’t understand Yankees fans who are giving Hal a pass here and saying they are proud of the team’s inherited owner for going toe-to-toe with the sport’s wealthiest owner. The reason the Yankees are in the position of needing to bid $760 million on Soto is because of Hal and his invincible front office headed by Cashman. The organization has made a decade-and-a-half of poor choices, and none poorer than not even meeting with Bryce Harper six years ago when he desperately wanted to be a Yankee and eventually signed for half the average annual salary of Soto. The Yankees’ offseason choices from six-plus years ago led them to where they are today. It’s the Yankees’ own fault for putting themselves in a position where the loss of a single player through free agency could disrupt their entire future because of poor planning and poor roster construction. That’s on ownership and the front office. They don’t get a pass for “being competitive.” They lost. Again.
And that’s the issue with these Yankees. They’re OK with losing. The higher-ups likely feel good about this loss to the Mets because they were “competitive” the same way the manager of the team talks about how he likes his team’s “compete” after avoidable losses. The only person happier than Soto today is Hal who nows gets to keep the $760 million he offered to Soto and is somehow being praised for “trying.”
4. Why do you think seven minutes after Soto’s 15-year, $765 million contract with the Mets was reported, the Yankees’ offer of $760 million over 16 years was also reported? The Yankees wanted to leak their offer to show their fans they didn’t lowball Soto and they offered $5 million less and one year more. In actuality, they offered less money overall and less money per year. Add in the Mets’ willingness to give Soto a $75 million signing bonus, escalators after five years that can bring the contract to $800 million and not a single deferred dollar in the deal, and the Mets’ offer blew the Yankees’ away. Hal wanted to save face after being repeatedly called cheap in recent years, and the best way to do that was to get the Yankees’ offer out there as soon as possible, so the fans would turned on Soto instead of him. It worked. It worked beautifully in Hal’s favor. Since last night, the vast majority of Yankees fans are calling Soto greedy and money hungry, as if they wouldn’t change employers within the same city in their own lives for more money.
The Yankees needed Soto more than he needed them. In fact, he didn’t need them at all, and the Yankees fans who have talked themselves into this being a good thing are fools. They are likely the same people who think Hal isn’t cheap because he offered a contract that wasn’t accepted despite owning the team that generates the most revenue in the sport, but is 18th in revenue-to-payroll ratio. The same fans who think paying $765 million is a bad business decision in a salary-cap-less league.
5. The Yankees have to live in the free-agent market because of their player development issues. It’s always been a problematic realization because the team’s owner has created a salary cap for his team in the salary-cap-less league, and now the problem has been elevated because the Mets just proved they will stop at nothing to get any free agent they covet. And odds are, every free agent the Yankees covet is going to be coveted by the Mets. As I said after every Clay Holmes blown save this season, when you have a closer who relies on balls in play to get outs, bad things can happen. Well, when your only way to build your roster is to rely on an auction process, bad things can happen. And taking Soto off this roster is as bad as it gets.
6. Things are bad. Real bad. This is currently the Yankees’ Opening Day lineup by position.
C: Austin Wells
1B: DJ LeMahieu
2B: Oswaldo Cabrera
SS: Anthony Volpe
3B: Jazz Chisholm
LF: Jasson Dominguez
CF: Trent Grisham
RF: Aaron Judge
DH: Giancarlo Stanton
A second-year catcher who was abysmal for the last month-plus of the season; a middle infielder-turned-first baseman who has been shut down by the end of the season in three of the last four years; a utility player with no set position; a shortstop whose development has stalled; a middle infielder-turned center fielder-turned third baseman; a left fielder who wasn’t deemed good enough to play over the worst everyday bat in the majors in the most important games of the season; a center fielder who was allowed to appear in the same amount of playoff games as me; the reigning AL MVP winner who can’t hit in October and a 35-year-old designated hitter who can only hit in October. If you want to know how the Yankees’ consecutive season wining streak since 1993 comes to an end, there you have it.
7. I can’t imagine that will be the Yankees’ Opening Day lineup on March 27 against the Brewers, but maybe it should be, at least in terms of free agency? The Yankees’ best course of action may be to do nothing in free agency. The only two intriguing free-agent options left on the board are Corbin Burnes and Max Fried, but neither of them are left-handed hitters who are going to hit elite pitching in October. Though we know the Yankees aren’t going to sit idly. Not when their highest-paid stars are in their mid-30s, not when they are coming off a World Series appearance and not when the player responsible for them appearing in that World Series is now playing for the cross-city team that was supposed to always be the little brother.
8. Where do the Yankees go from here? Who knows. Eleven years ago when they lost Robinson Cano in an auction, they pivoted and spent crazily on Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann and Carlos Beltran. They eventually released Ellsbury and filed a grievance against him to not pay him, paid McCann to play for the Astros and help beat them in the 2017 ALCS and traded Beltran to the Rangers.
Next year’s free-agent class is much better. But who’s to say the top names expected in it will still be free agents by the end of the next season? And who’s to say the Mets won’t want the best available free agents next year again and just keep upping their bid for them until the Yankees pull out and then leak their best offer to show they tried?
9. In all likelihood, the Yankees were going to sign Soto and call it an offseason. They would have run back the same team that just proved it wasn’t good enough to win it all against a watered-down version of the Dodgers. If the Yankees’ ceiling as currently constructed with Soto was to get embarrassed by the Dodgers without a rotation in the World Series, what would happen if the Yankees were to reach the World Series again against the Dodgers and have to face some combination of Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyer Glasnow, Blake Snell, Dustin May, Clayton Kershaw and others?
10. Like Boone’s 2003 pennant-winning home run that resulted in the Yankees losing the World Series, the Red Sox retooling that offseason to change the course of the rivalry’s history and Boone eventually being named manager of the Yankees only to have the most disappointing tenure of any person in the position’s history, Soto’s time with the Yankees is eerily similar. The Yankees traded away Michael King along with all of their pitching depth to acquire Soto. He led them to the World Series, which now will keep Boone and Cashman in place forever, only to be humiliated in the World Series, and now he has left them for their cross-city rival, completely changing the landscape for New York baseball moving forward. Was getting a lucky free pass to the World Series against the AL Central only to be destroyed by the Dodgers worth it to now not have King, a depleted farm system, Boone and Cashman forever and the Mets and their fans laughing in Yankees fans’ faces? Not for me it wasn’t.
On top of that, Judge’s reputation and legacy was tarnished with his ALDS, ALCS and World Series performances as was Gerrit Cole’s with him pointing to first base rather than covering it, and the Yankees pitching staff had to pitch an extra month worth of high-stress games only to win nothing, which will now impact their health and stamina for next season. Again, none of it was worth it.
It was only ever going to be worth it if Soto was going to play in New York until at least 40, try to help lead a parade through the Canyon of Heroes and one day wear the interlocking NY in Cooperstown. He’s going to do all that, it’s just going to be for the Mets and not the Yankees.