1. Nine days ago, during the Orioles series, I mapped out the Yankees’ rotation for the next three series. At the time, Cam Schlittler was on track to pitch against the Astros and miss the Red Sox series. That couldn’t happen, I wrote. The Yankees had to hold him back to pitch against the Red Sox. They did, and on Friday night in the Bronx, you saw why.

There has never been a Yankees pitcher who has owned the Red Sox the way that Cam Schlittler does. Schlittler has now made four career regular-season starts and one postseason start against the Red Sox and this is his combined line: 32.1 IP, 20 H, 7 R, 2 ER, 9 BB, 39 K, 2 HR, 0.56 ERA, 0.897 WHIP. It’s a preposterous line for any major-league pitcher against any major-league opponent, let alone a Yankees pitcher against the Red Sox.

2. On Friday, Schlittler held the Red Sox scoreless for 5 2/3 innings despite not having nearly his best stuff and the Yankees won the biggest game of the season to date 1-0. Schlittler’s normal impeccable control evaded him as he walked five in the game and failed to have a single 1-2-3 inning, but each time the Red Sox put runners on, Schlittler walked off the mound unscathed.

When Wilyer Abreu reached on catcher’s interference with two outs in the first inning, Schlittler struck out Willson Contreras. After walking two with two outs in the second inning, Schlittler got a strikeout and groundout to end the threat. When Abreu hit a two-out double in the third, Schlittler struck out Contreras again. After a two-out walk in the fourth, Schlittler induced a groundout to end the inning. With two on and one out in the fifth, Schlittler got an inning-ending double play thanks to a lineout and some awful baserunning by Ceddanne Rafaela. In the sixth, Schlittler got two quick outs, but then walked Caleb Durbin and Aaron Boone went to Brent Headrick to eventually end the inning.

3. The entire scoring in the game was a Paul Goldschmidt solo home run in the third inning. The Red Sox went 5-for-30 with six walks and nine strikeouts. The Yankees went 3-for-27 with four walks and 11 strikeouts. The Yankees have scored two runs in their last 18 innings. They are a combined 8-for-58 with six walks and 22 strikeouts. That’s a good way to end the division race.

4. Goldschmidt went 1-for-4 with the home run and a strikeout in the leadoff spot. (It was Goldschmidt’s third start since August 1.) Ben Rice went 2-for-4 with two strikeouts (Rice has come alive with .981 OPS over the last two weeks). Cody Bellinger went 0-for-4. (Bellinger’s defense made up for it.) Heliot Ramos went 0-for-1 with two walks and a strikeout. (He’s a problem because he isn’t hitting and he keeps being put in prime spots in the batting order.) Trent Grisham went 0-for-2 with a walk and a strikeout. (This is who Grisham is). George Lombard Jr. went 0-for-2 with a walk. (Good at-bats all around for Lombard Jr. and his error streak is over.) Jazz Chisholm went 0-for-3 with two strikeouts. (To be expected from Chisholm.) Jose Caballero went 0-for-3. (To be expected from Caballero). Austin Wells went 0-for-3 with three strikeouts. (Wells has struck out in six straight plate appearances.) Spencer Jones went 0-for-1 with a strikeout.

5. Headrick (two outs), Paul Blackburn (five outs) and David Bednar (three outs) closed out the game in relief of Schlittler. As I wrote recently, those three and the game’s starter are the only pitchers I want throwing pitches in postseason games and Friday was a postseason-like game.

6. Bellinger’s throw home to get Rafaela in the seventh inning was spectacular. Everything about the play was perfect. The way Bellinger backed up to step into the catch with his momentum going toward home. The throw, which was perfectly on line on one hop to home. The pick by Wells to receive the throw and the tag Wells put on Rafaela just in time to get the out. It was a lead-saving and possibly game-saving play by the best left fielder in the world.

“I was able to get some good momentum going home,” Bellinger said.

“That was one of the defensive plays of the year,” Boone said.”

7. It’s obvious Headrick and Blackburn are fatigued, considering the way they have been hit recently after not being hit all season. But there’s no other choice right now to bridge the gap from starter to Bednar other than those two because the Yankees really only play close games and they have to use their best every night to win and keep pace with the Rays.

8. The Rays won as the Padres were no help on Friday. The Yankees’ lead over the Red Sox is back up to three games, but the division deficit remains at four games.

Here is the updated path to winning the division:

The Yankees are 76-58.
The Rays are 80-54.
Four games back.

The Yankees go 2-1 against the Red Sox. 78-59.
The Rays go 1-1 against the Padres. 81-55.
3 1/2 games back.

The Yankees go 4-2 against the Angels and Padres. 82-61.
The Rays go 3-4 against the Mets and Rangers. 84-59.
Two games back.

The Yankees go 4-2 against the Rockies and Mets. 86-63.
The Rays go 3-3 against the Braves and Astros. 87-62.
One game back.

The Yankees go 4-2 against the Twins and Diamondbacks. 90-65.
The Rays go 3-3 against the Athletics and Red Sox. 90-65.
Tied.

The Yankees go 2-2 against the Rays. 92-67.
The Rays go 2-2 against the Yankees. 92-67.
One game back due to the Rays winning the head-to-head tiebreaker.

The Yankees go 2-1 against the Orioles. 94-68.
The Rays go 1-2 against the Phillies. 93-69.
The Yankees win the division by one game.

It’s still possible, but certainly losing two of three at home to the Astros hurt the math pretty badly. It would be nice if the Yankees just went on a 10-game winning streak and the Rays went on a 10-game losing streak. That would make this easy. But after the Rays’ recent slide where they lost seven of nine, they have rebounded by winning four of five.

9. Saturday is a day I have been looking forward to for months: a Yankees-Red Sox doubleheader. The Yankees will give the ball to Carlos Rodon in the afternoon game and Max Fried in the night game. The Red Sox are going with Jake Bennett in the first game and have yet to announce a starter for the second game. Rodon’s pitch count should be around 85-90 for his start. Fried threw 88 pitches on August 13, but I have no idea how many pitches he will be allowed to throw.

10. The safest way to negate any limitations for either starter on Saturday is for the offense to show up in a way it hasn’t in the last two games. That takes pitch count questions out of the equation, it takes using relievers not named Headrick, Blackburn or Bednar in high-leverage spots out of the equation and it takes Boone out of the equation. Score runs and put the Red Sox away like you should have at the end of June.

1. Just when you think you can trust Gerrit Cole to win a big game and the offense (with or without Aaron Judge) to show up in a big game, they remind you of who they really are. Cole was mediocre (because that’s what three earned runs in six innings is), and with a chance to maintain their position in the division and wild-card standings, the offense disappeared, going 5-for-31 with 11 strikeouts.

“I thought we made a lot of really good pitches tonight,” Cole said. “I think in certain situations we executed and they beat us, so it’s just a bit unfortunate. But sometimes that’s the way it breaks.”

2. That’s the way it seems to break for Cole in every big game (and given the standings, every game is a big game from here on out). Cole talks about how good his pitches were and the Yankees lose. I’m sure he will do just fine against the American League-worst Angels next week.

3. Of course the loss isn’t only on Cole. Hayden Wesneski continued the undefeated Law of Ex-Yankees as the former prospect held the Yankees to one run over five innings with a season-high six strikeouts. (Which opposing starter hasn’t recorded their season high for strikeouts against the Yankees this season?)

4. Trent Grisham continued his between-homers-disappearing act with another 0-for-4. Grisham went 2-for-11 in Toronto then 4-for-12 in Baltimore then 2-for-10 against the Blue Jays and 1-for-12 against the Astros. This is what Grisham is and why he has no business batting leadoff. A true contender’s leadoff hitter can’t have one good series every couple of weeks sandwiched around shit.

Here are the leadoff hitters of teams with more wins than the Yankees:

Shohei Ohtani: .927 OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong: .924
Yandy Diaz: .829 OPS
Jackson Chourio: .822 OPS
Ronald Acuna: .731 OPS

Acuna is having the worst season of his career with an OPS 151 points below his career average, and yet, he still has a higher OPS than Grisham and there isn’t a person in the world who would take Grisham in any plate appearance over Acuna. Then there’s Kyle Schwarber (.890 OPS) and Fernando Tatis (.801 OPS) and even Nick Sogard of the Red Sox at .772.

5. Ben Rice went 2-for-4 with a double and has a .954 OPS in the last 10 games after deciding his two-month experiment of swinging at every pitch thrown to him wasn’t a viable strategy.

Luis Garcia went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts and Cody Bellinger went 0-for-2 with a walk. George Lombard Jr. went 1-for-4 with a triple and two strikeouts and also made an error for the sixth straight game, something no Yankees shortstop has done in 111 years.

Spencer Jones went 0-for-3 with a strikeout and Heliot Ramos struck out pinch hitting for Jones.

Jazz Chisholm went 1-for-2 with a walk and a strikeout and Amed Rosario made an out pinch hitting for Chisholm.

Austin Wells went 0-for-3 with three strikeouts. YES has stopped showing the graphic of Wells’ first-half numbers compared to his second half as his second half is slowly looking like his first half. Wells has a .502 OPS over the last two weeks with 13 strikeouts in 33 at-bats.

Jose Caballero went 1-for-3 and didn’t add to his portfolio of worst plate appearances you’ll ever see as he holds the first-, second- and third-worst plate appearances of the year for the Yankees.

6. It was a bad loss. A really bad loss given the Yankees’ starting pitching advantage and the fact that the Astros’ pitching (as a whole) sucks. But it’s the kind of loss that happens over 162 games. The problem is when you give away two months of the season and then need every win possible to win a division race, you can’t afford to lose games in which you have a very clear edge.

7. The Rays and Red Sox both picked up a half-game on the Yankees by doing nothing. The math is really ugly once again for the division with the Yankees four games back with 29 games left to play. If the Rays go even 14-15 the rest of the way, the Yankees will have to go 19-10 to pass them. The Yankees are getting to the point where their only chance at the division is to win all four games against the Rays at Yankee Stadium in the last week of the season.

8. But the Yankees can’t worry about the Rays at the moment because they have to worry about the Red Sox who arrive in the Bronx for four games in three days with two games separating the teams in the loss column. The Yankees have lost four straight to the Red Sox and five of six. The Yankees need to win at least three games this weekend to clinch the head-to-head tiebreaker, which could be extremely important to determine the venue for a potential Wild Card Series matchup.

9. The Yankees pushed Cam Schlittler back to start on Friday against the team he owns, and that’s the only game of the weekend that the Yankees will have a clear starting pitching advantage in. Other than that, they’re going to use Max Fried (fresh off his second appearance on the injured list for a bone bruise), Carlos Rodon (who never pitches well against the Red Sox) and Will Warren (who never pitches well against anyone). The Red Sox are likely to use four left-handed starters in the series, which poses a problem because the Yankees’ only right-handed bats are Lombard Jr. and his 20 career games, Caballero and his .559 OPS since June 20, Rosario and his .611 OPS against lefties, Ramos and his .411 OPS as a Yankee, and Paul Goldschmidt, who has a .443 OPS since June 26 and has started two games since August 1. (The Yankees traded for Ramos specifically for a series like this, and he’s going to hit somewhere in the first five spots in the order and has to do damage. I would feel a lot better about the Yankees’ chances this weekend if Judge and Giancarlo Stanton were playing, but Judge just started swinging at overhand pitches and Stanton is home laughing at the $179,012.35 he is making each game to not play. Well, maybe not laughing since he would probably pull a rib cage muscle doing that. Meanwhile, the Red Sox may get Roman Anthony and Trevor Story back this weekend. Not ideal.

10. The Yankees are responsible for reviving the Red Sox’ season. When the two teams met for four games at Fenway Park in late June, the Red Sox were 14 games under .500 and the Yankees had a three-game division lead. Since then, the Red Sox are 41-14, while the Yankees have seen their three-game lead become a four-game deficit. The Yankees never let the Red Sox pass them during their insane two-month run, and that needs to remain true through this weekend.

1. A wise man once said, “You can’t predict baseball,” and no one could have predicted Elmer Rodriguez wildly exceeding expectations on Wednesday against the best slugging lineup in the American League. Here is what I wrote about Rodriguez before the game:

The Astros will be the best lineup Elmer Rodriguez has faced in his life, and Yordan Alvarez will be the best hitter he has ever pitched to. It’s hard to expect someone who has put 33 baserunners on in 17 innings (and has more walks than strikeouts) to pitch well against the American League’s highest slugging team, so it’s up to the offense to hit well against arguably the worst pitching staff in the AL.

Rodriguez stepped up with the best game of his career and the offense stepped up by scoring nine runs. The Yankees have now scored 16 runs in 17 innings against the truly awful Astros pitching staff.

2. Rodriguez finished with six-plus innings pitched and three earned runs allowed, but it should have been six innings pitched and two earned runs allowed because Aaron Boone should have never sent him out for the seventh and Trent Grisham’s poor defense cost him a run in the first.

“He was nasty,” Aaron Boone said. “That’s what we get excited about right there.”

3. After blowing three different leads on Tuesday, the Yankees blew two leads on Wednesday. Rodriguez blew an early 2-1 lead and Boone letting Rodriguez start the seventh led to blowing a late 3-2 lead. Why is Boone trying to steal outs with Rodriguez in the seventh inning of a one-run game with the Astros’ 4-5-6 hitters about to face him for a third time in the middle of a pennant race? Because he’s Aaron Boone, that’s why, and there’s no level of ineptitude he won’t stoop to. Boone was willing to use Paul Blackburn in the seventh, he just figured he would let Rodriguez face Jose Altuve again before going to him. So instead of Blackburn getting a clean inning to work with, he got a runner on first and no outs to work with and the Astros ended up tying the game.

4. But for the second straight game, Boone building a four-lefty-batter lane didn’t negatively impact the team as Grisham, Ben Rice, Luis Garcia and Cody Bellinger teed off on left-hander Bennett Sousa. The Yankees scored four runs in the seventh to break the tie and break the game open. Grisham singled, Rice walked, Garcia singled to load the bases and Bellinger hit a booming double off the wall in center. Lombard Jr. struck out before Spencer Jones singled and Jazz Chisholm doubled. Those four runs allowed Michael Fulmer to make his Yankees debut.

5. I have always disliked Fulmer for being named the 2016 AL Rookie of the Year over Gary Sanchez, and because he always pitched well against the Yankees. Fulmer entered the game having only thrown 10 1/3 innings in the majors since the end of the 2023 season. He’s nowhere near the front-end starter he was a decade ago with the Tigers, but he can certainly be useful. It was odd that the Angels released him after 3 2/3 scoreless innings in relief for them this season, then again that’s the Angels for you. After a scoreless inning as a Yankee on Wednesday, I’m excited to see what he can do in these final weeks of the season now that Fernando Cruz is on the injured list with right elbow discomfort (which likely explains why he has been so bad since the end of June).

6. It’s amazing what can happen when your 2-3-4 hitters produce and the combination of Rice, Garcia and Bellinger went 5-for-12 with a double, two home runs, five RBIs and three walks. Every Yankee except for George Lombard Jr. (who committed an error for the fifth straight game) had a hit as the Yankees went 13-for-36 with five walks and nine strikeouts. The Yankees have scored 24 runs in their last three games. They scored 24 runs in the six previous games. They scored 25 runs from July 29 to August 7. Rice choosing to no longer swing at every pitch, Garcia waking up and Bellinger returning has turned the offense around.

7. Rice’s first-inning home run ended the Yankees’ first-inning scoreless streak at 23 games. The record remains 24 from the 2021 season. That’s a record I never want to see broken. I never want to see a streak like the one we just painfully sat through dating back to late July.

8. Grisham’s first-inning misplay was further proof he isn’t the fielder Boone and the Yankees believe he is. They tell us he’s still elite when in actuality he’s not even the best center fielder on the team. He may not even be the third-best center fielder on the team. He gets poor reads, has below-average speed and is nonchalant about everything. Those are the kind of habits and tendencies you can’t have in a center fielder. That wasn’t a random bad play from Grisham, it was the type of miscue he makes too frequently for a starting center fielder in the majors. But there’s a better chance the Mets will make the playoffs than there is that Grisham won’t be starting in center field and batting leadoff in October.

9. It’s the series and season finale between the Yankees and Astros on Thursday and it will be Gerrit Cole against former Yankees prospect Hayden Wesneski. Wesneski was traded by the Yankees to the Cubs for Scott Effross four years ago and it’s safe to say the Yankees didn’t win that trade. Effross threw 12 2/3 innings for the Yankees after the trade and got hurt. He missed the entire 2023 season and then had a 7.71 ERA over 14 innings for the Yankees over the following two years. He’s been pitching poorly in Triple-A for the Tigers and Mariners this season. Wesneski has been 3 percent better than league average in 249 2/3 innings in the majors over five seasons. He’s made five starts for the Astros this season and has lasted at least five innings in all of them.

10. On paper, the Yankees have the advantage in this game, but as Rodriguez proved on Wednesday, on paper means nothing. With the Rays and Red Sox both off, and four games in three days against the Red Sox beginning on Friday, this is a game the Yankees have to have if they want to maintain their current lead over the Red Sox and want to keep their division-winning dream alive.

1. What a missed opportunity Tuesday was for the Yankees. The offense scored SEVEN runs and the Rays lost, but the defense was poor, the bullpen imploded and the Yankees blew three different leads in a really bad 9-7 loss to the Astros.

“They beat our guys tonight, so you’ve got to give them some credit there,” Aaron Boone said. “We kept answering for the most part, but they just did a little bit more offensively tonight.”

The Astros put nine baserunners on in five innings against Will Warren. They got to the untrustworthy Fernando Cruz for two runs and got to Brent Headrick for three more. Headrick has been so good this year that no Yankees fan can be upset with him for his worst outing of the season on Tuesday. He’s second in the majors with 68 appearances to Mason Fluharty’s 70. But in two fewer appearances, Headrick has pitched 14 1/3 innings more than Fluharty. Headrick’s previous single-season high for innings in a major-league season is 25 2/3, which he will end up tripling by the end of the year.

2. Headrick is greatly overworked and has been overused because the Yankees only play close games and because he is one of two trustworthy options in the bullpen not named David Bednar. But I have no idea what Boone was thinking with Headrick on Tuesday. Headrick allowed the game-tying home run to Yainer Diaz then with two outs, he allowed a single to Jeremy Pena and a go-ahead triple to Yordan Alvarez. Headrick was at 22 pitches, had already allowed two runs and had a runner on third. Not only is Headrick likely fatigued from the season, but he was clearly fatigued in the inning, having allowed three barrels in the inning and having turned a lead into a deficit. But Boone left him in to face the right-handed Isaac Paredes and Paredes singled to make it a two-run game. Then Boone decided to bring in a right-hander.

3. I expect the Yankees to lose when Warren starts because he isn’t any good and because the offense can’t be trusted to score enough to make up for him not being any good. So when the offense scores seven runs in a game started by Warren, it’s a game that needs to be won. When the offense scores seven runs in a game started by anyone, it’s a game that needs to be won.

4. Cruz is a concern because Boone continues to use him as if he’s still trustworthy when he hasn’t been in more than a month. Compared to last season. Cruz’s WHIP, hits per nine innings, home runs per nine, walks per nine, strikeouts per nine and strikeouts to walks are all worse. Since June 28, he has a 4.95 ERA and has put 32 baserunners on in 20 innings, while allowing five home runs.

“He’s got to be part of the equation,” Boone said about Cruz. (No, he doesn’t?) “We still need him to get big outs for us. Tonight, they got him when he fell behind.”

But Cruz has a propensity to fall behind because his best pitch is a splitter, and if you take the good splitters, which are the ones that look like strikes but aren’t, then you get ahead of him, and once he has to come in the zone with his 93-mph fastball, he gets hit.

5. As of now, the only pitchers I trust to throw a pitch in October are that game’s starter (as long as that game’s starter is only Cam Schlittler, Gerrit Cole or Max Fried), Headrick, Paul Blackburn and Bednar. Obviously, that won’t be the case and the Yankees will use and need Cruz and Tim Hill to get outs in the playoffs.

6. Luis Garcia’s 4-for-4, three-RBI night was wasted, as was Cody Bellinger’s first home run since June 17. George Lombard Jr. made an error for the fourth straight game when he picked up a ball that Jazz Chisholm failed to field cleanly and rushed a throw to first. No, Lombard Jr. shouldn’t have made the throw, but at the same time, field the ball, Chisholm.

7. Jose Caballero picked up a single in the game after a 1-for-25 stretch, but also had arguably the second-worst plate appearance of any Yankee this season when he swung at all three pitches of in at-bat and didn’t come close to putting the ball in play. (Caballero proudly owns the worst plate appearance of the season from the Braves series.) Caballero is hitting .186/.252/.307 since June 20. Ryan McMahon doesn’t have to worry about losing any playing time to Caballero.

8. The Rays lost and the Red Sox won, so the Yankees’ deficit to the Rays is still three games in the loss column, and their lead over the Red Sox is now down to two games in the loss column. The Rays are doing their part to hand the Yankees the division, having lost eight of their last 12. The door was officially opened last week, and if the Yankees had won on Tuesday, I was ready to be a full-on believer that they were going to win the division. The difference between three back and two back is enormous though. It’s a massive swing, and when you add in that the Rays just need to beat the Yankees once in their four remaining games to win the division tiebreaker, the swing of last night’s loss is even bigger. There are plenty of “what if” losses you can go through from the season that have the Yankees trailing in the division and Tuesday is one of them. The Yankees can’t afford many more, if any, “what if” losses if they want to avoid the Wild Card Series.

9. Here is the updated path to winning the division:

The Yankees are 74-57.
The Rays are 78-54.
3 1/2 games back.

The Yankees go 4-2 against the Astros and Red Sox. 78-59.
The Rays go 2-2 against the Tigers and Padres. 80-56.
2 1/2 games back.

The Yankees go 4-2 against the Angels and Padres. 82-61.
The Rays go 3-4 against the Mets and Rangers. 83-60.
One game back.

The Yankees go 4-2 against the Rockies and Mets. 86-63.
The Rays go 3-3 against the Braves and Astros. 86-63.
Tied.

The Yankees go 4-2 against the Twins and Diamondbacks. 90-65.
The Rays go 4-2 against the Athletics and Red Sox. 90-65.
Tied.

The Yankees go 2-2 against the Rays. 92-67.
The Rays go 2-2 against the Yankees. 92-67.
One game back due to the Rays winning the head-to-head tiebreaker.

The Yankees go 2-1 against the Orioles. 94-68.
The Rays go 1-2 against the Phillies. 93-69.
The Yankees win the division by one game.

10. The Yankees are doing the right thing by pushing Schlittler back to pitch in the Red Sox, but even though Elmer Rodriguez is pitching on Wednesday, the Yankees need to beat the Astros. Rodriguez has made four major-league starts with his last being June 21, and he has never lasted more than 4 2/3 innings. He faced the Rangers twice, the Mets and Reds. The Astros will be the best lineup he has faced in his life, and Alvarez will be the best hitter he has ever pitched to. It’s hard to expect someone who has put 33 baserunners on in 17 innings (and has more walks than strikeouts) to pitch well against the American League’s highest slugging team, so it’s up to the offense to hit well against arguably the worst pitching staff in the AL.

1. I ended Thursday’s Thoughts with this:

The Yankees have an opportunity to sweep a series for the first time since the last series before the All-Star break and for just the second time since June 8-10. I expect Cole will do his part in giving the Yankees a chance to pull off the sweep. It’s the offense I don’t trust. But if the offense can “just suck” and score four runs on Thursday, I like the Yankees’ chances at the sweeping their third series since the end of May.

Gerrit Cole did his part and the offense put together their second straight five-plus-run game and the Yankees won 6-1 to pull off their first sweep in more than a month. It was the first time the Yankees scored at least five runs in back-to-back games since June 16-17.

2. Not only did the Yankees score at least five runs for a second straight game, but Trent Grisham led off the game with a base hit for the second straight day. It was the first time Grisham had reached base safely to begin a game in back-to-back games since September 24 and 25 of last season.

3. The Yankees scored three runs in the third inning on Thursday thanks to a fielder’s choice error, Ben Rice RBI single with two outs and Heliot Ramos RBI double with two outs. It was Ramos’ first RBI in 16 games as a Yankee. The Yankees added two more runs in the sixth with solo home runs from Luis Garcia and Spencer Jones and added a run in the eighth on a Jazz Chisholm RBI triple. The only two Yankees to not get hits in the game were George Lombard Jr. and Jose Caballero.

4. Cole was excellent with six innings and just one earned run allowed on a Dylan Beavers solo home run. Cole struck out eight and the combination of his length and the offense “exploding” for six runs made it possible for Ryan Yarbrough to eat up the final three innings, of which he did perfectly.

5. The Red Sox were off and the Rays lost, so the Yankees maintained their four-game lead in the loss column over the Red Sox and have now brought their deficit in the loss column to the Rays down to four games. The math is still heavily in the Rays’ favor for the division, but their 2-5 slide over the last week has opened the door slightly for the Yankees. Sweeping the Orioles instead of simply just winning the series and finishing the road trip at 4-2 instead of 3-3 made a huge impact on the path to winning the division I laid out yesterday.

6. Here is an updated version:

The Yankees are 72-55.
The Rays are 76-51.

The Yankees go 2-1 against the Blue Jays. 74-56.
The Rays go 1-2 against the and Orioles. 77-53.
Three games back.

The Yankees go 4-3 against the Astros and Red Sox. 78-59.
The Rays go 3-3 against the Tigers and Padres. 80-56.
2 1/2 games back.

The Yankees go 4-2 against the Angels and Padres. 82-61.
The Rays go 3-4 against the Mets and Rangers. 83-60.
One game back.

The Yankees go 4-2 against the Rockies and Mets. 86-63.
The Rays go 3-3 against the Braves and Astros. 86-63.
Tied.

The Yankees go 4-2 against the Twins and Diamondbacks. 90-65.
The Rays go 4-2 against the Athletics and Red Sox. 90-65.
Tied.

The Yankees go 2-2 against the Rays. 92-67.
The Rays go 2-2 against the Yankees. 92-67.
One game back due to the Rays winning the head-to-head tiebreaker.

The Yankees go 2-1 against the Orioles. 94-68.
The Rays go 1-2 against the Phillies. 93-69.
The Yankees win the division by one game.

7. The Yankees failed to score a first-inning run again, having last done so on July 29. The streak is up to 19 games. The franchise record is 24 games from July 8, 2021 to August 6, 2021. and very much in reach. It would be nice to end the streak as early as Friday against the Blue Jays’ bullpen game, considering the Blue Jays have already shut the Yankees down in two bullpen games this season and beat them in Game 4 of the ALDS with a bullpen game as well.

8. The Yankees will face the bullpen on Friday, Dylan Cease on Saturday and Jose Soriano on Sunday. It’s a worst-case three starters for the Yankees to have to see when playing the Blue Jays because of their lack of success against Blue Jays bullpen games, Cease being the second-best pitcher in the American League and Soriano being very good. It would have been nice to get Shane Bieber and Max Scherzer.

10. The Yankees have Cam Schlittler, Ryan Weathers and Carlos Rodon lined up for the weekend. If the Yankees were to stay in rotation and not adjust anything with Monday’s day off, the Red Sox would miss both Schlittler and Cole next weekend. This can’t happen:

Friday (Blue Jays): Schlittler
Saturday (Blue Jays): Weathers
Sunday (Blue Jays): Rodon
Monday: OFF
Tuesday (Astros): Warren
Wednesday (Astros): Cole
Thursday (Astros): Schlittler
Friday (Red Sox): Weathers
Saturday (Red Sox): Rodon
Saturday (Red Sox): Spot starter
Sunday (Red Sox): Warren

Something like this needs to happen:

Friday (Blue Jays): Schlittler
Saturday (Blue Jays): Weathers
Sunday (Blue Jays): Rodon
Monday: OFF
Tuesday (Astros): Cole
Wednesday (Astros): Warren
Thursday (Astros): Spot starter
Friday (Red Sox): Schlittler
Saturday (Red Sox): Rodon
Saturday (Red Sox): Weathers
Sunday (Red Sox): Cole

After the Red Sox series, the Yankees have three games in Anaheim, a day off, three games in San Diego and another day off. They can sort out the rotation that week with the two days off, but again, it’s imperative both Schlittler and Cole face the Red Sox.