Neil Keefe

Jul 6, 2015

The Necessary Nine

The Yankees have an important nine-game stretch before the All-Star break that could set them up nicely for the second half if they win six of the games.

In 2007, the Yankees faced a 12-game stretch that the Daily News believed would make or break their season by calling it the “Dirty Dozen.” In 2013, the Yankees faced a 14-game stretch before the All-Star break, which held the same challenge, that I called the Final 14. Both stretches presented times the Yankees were fighting for their playoff lives and needing to win in bunches to keep their season from turning meaningless. This season, before the All-Star break, the Yankees are in a different position, but playing a very significant stretch: the Necessary Nine.

I have been fortunate to have a baseball summer nearly my entire life. The last time the Yankees finished under .500 was 1992 when I was six. Since then, it’s been 22 straight over-.500 seasons with playoff appearances every season except for 1994 (thanks to the strike), 2008, 2013 and 2014. The 2008, 2013 and 2014 were good enough to keep my summers alive and string me along into believing they could overcome incredible injuries, but they weren’t good to give me a fall. And like Bobby Knight once told his Indiana team, “You will not put me in that f-cking position again.” I need a fall this year. I have to have a fall.

The 2015 Yankees are a weird team. They have the ability to start the year 3-6 and then go on an 18-6 run. They have been swept by the Rangers and have swept the Royals. They have lost two out of three to the Phillies at home and they have beaten Jacob deGrom, Felix Hernandez and Max Scherzer. They have been unpredictable and frustrating at times and dominant and unbeatable other times. But the one constant with them is that they have stayed at or near the top of the AL East for the entire season, which is something they weren’t able to do the last two years.

The “Necessary Nine” began on Friday night against Tampa Bay. With nine games against the Rays, A’s and Red Sox standing between the Yankees from the All-Star break and four consecutive off days, this is their chance to create separation in the division and take the Red Sox out of the race completely. The Red Sox have played better of late even with the worst rotation in the league, but they’re still six games under .500 (39-45) even if Bostonians want you to believe that record is reversed with their over-the-top optimism. A series win or another sweep in Boston this weekend would keep the Yankees where they are and send the city of Boston into an All-Star Game depression, allowing them to do something other than focus on baseball for the rest of summer.

Sunday’s loss to the Rays was the 82nd game of the season and the official start of the second half (the first post-All-Star Game will be the 89th game), and with the 8-1 loss, the Yankees are 44-38 and one game up in the division. The series win over the Rays was the first checkpoint for the “Necessary Nine” since it kept them on pace for the needed record over this stretch, kept the Rays at bay and kept the Yankees in first place and still one game up, which is where they were before Friday’s game, while taking three more games off the schedule. Next up is beating up on the lowly A’s before the important first-half finale in Boston.

But before the Yankees head to Boston, they have to take care of business at home against the A’s, a last-place team that already took three of four from them in Oakland at the end of May. And since the Yankees never miss out on facing an opposing team’s ace, of course they will see Sonny Gray in the series opener on Tuesday night. It will be the second time the Yankees have seen him, after just having seen Chris Archer over the weekend, C.J. Wilson the series before that, Dallas Keuchel the series before that and Cole Hamels the series before that.

The Yankees should win six of the nine and now that they have already won two, that means winning four of six against the last-place A’s and Red Sox. “Should” was never a problem in the pre-2013 Yankees world, but now it’s become a dangerous and powerful word that leaves Yankees fans puzzled after disappointing losses to bad teams.

I want to go back to when the Yankees took care of business against bad teams and games they “should” win turned into actual wins. I want to go back to when the Yankees being in first place at the All-Star break was a sure-thing. We’re almost there.

Blogs • Yankees

Jul 1, 2015

Brian Cashman and Yankees Know Nothing About Pitching

The Yankees’ putting Adam Warren in the bullpen and skipping a Michael Pineda start are the latest moves on a long list of ridiculous decisions.

Maybe it doesn’t seem like the best time to complain about the Yankees’ handling of their pitching because the offense scored one run on Tuesday night and one run on Monday night and one run on Sunday and two runs on Friday and no runs on Thursday. But there’s not a whole lot that can be done when it comes to the offense except hope someone other than Brett Gardner, Alex Rodriguez or Mark Teixeira gets contributes, hope that Didi Gregarious and Stephen Drew hit like Major Leaguers and hope that Carlos Beltran retires. When it comes to pitching there is plenty that can be done and the Yankees seem to be doing it all wrong.

After CC Sabathia got embarrassed by the Phillies last week, I wrote that he is done. He followed it up with another ugly performance (7.1 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, 2 HR) that actually lowered his ERA from 5.65 to 5.59. And on the same night that Sabathia made another $700,000 to lose for the Yankees in what has become the easiest and best job in the world (I will gladly pitch in the majors and lose games for $23 million), the Yankees announced Adam Warren had been removed from the rotation and put in the bullpen. The same Adam Warren who boasts the lowest ERA in the Yankees’ rotation.

Twenty-four hours after Warren was put in the bullpen to supposedly give the Yankees the right-handed reliever they lacked, he entered a game the Yankees were losing and got the last eight outs of a loss. The Yankees’ ERA leader among starting pitchers wasn’t even setting up for Dellin Betanaces in his new role, he was holding a one-run deficit that was never overcome. That role makes a lot of sense and seems like the best use of his abilities.

The Yankees had their PR statement ready for reporters by citing Warren’s inning limits as the reason for the decision. With 82 2/3 innings as a starter, Warren had exceeded his innings totals for the last two seasons, but as a starter in the minors in 2012, he threw 155 innings between Triple-A and the Yankees, and in 2011, he threw 152 1/3 innings. This isn’t really unchartered territory for Warren, it’s just unchartered enough that the Yankees think they can get away with their reasoning.

Maybe the fans who believe the Yankees can do no wrong (the fans that believe Didi Gregarious was worth trading for and that Stephen Drew was worth giving $5 million to and that Esmil Rogers will turn his career around after 454 career innings) might have bought the Yankees’ answer to Warren going to the bullpen if Joe Girardi hadn’t said last week that Sabathia would remain in the rotation because of money. But Girardi gave away their not-so-secret secret last week: this isn’t about innings limits, it’s about money and money owed.

Money is the reason Sabathia was on the mound to lose to the Phillies last Tuesday and it’s the reason he was on the mound to lose to the Angels on Monday. It’s why he will get to start against the Rays on Sunday at the Stadium and likely lose that game too. The Yankees pretend that winning is everything, but when they owe a 35-year-old left-hander more per start (around $700,000) than they are paying a much better starter in Warren for the entire season ($572,600), well, it’s obvious why they chose to let Sabathia continue his campaign to allow 40-plus home runs this season.

But let’s pretend for a second that the decision to remove Warren from the rotation is about innings limits and that the Yankees think everyone is stupid enough to believe their lie. In order to even pretend, we need the answer to two questions: 1.) When was the last time the Yankees successfully handled a starting pitcher when it comes to injuries? and 2.) How do the Yankees think they can protect pitchers from injury? Recent Yankees history can answer these questions for us.

Eight years ago, Joba Chamberlain was called up to the Yankees and the “Joba Rules” were set in place to protect him. Joe Torre would have to give Chamberlain one day off for each inning pitched. And if Chamberlain were to pitch two innings, he would have had to have been rested two days beforehand.

“That’s in stone,” Joe Torre said about the rules in July 2008. “That’s basically to protect the future of the kid.”

The Yankees stuck with that version of the rules through 2007 and Joba’s dominating rookie season, and then in 2008, with his transformation from reliever to starter, they created new rules for him based on innings and pitch counts as if he were an 11-year-old in the Little League World Series. After his 12th start in the majors, Joba went on the disabled list with a shoulder injury, and in 2011, Brian Cashman said, “(Joba) hasn’t been the same since that episode in Texas.” But weren’t the rules Cashman created supposed to prevent that episode in Texas from happening?

In 2009, Joba remained a starter, though not a very good one (9-6, 4.75 ERA in 31 starts) before being put back into the bullpen for the postseason. He never started another game, but he did pitch to a 4.40 ERA out of the bullpen in 2010 and after 28 2/3 innings in 2012, he needed Tommy John surgery. Since returning from the surgery, he has a 4.01 ERA in 146 innings.

Since the 2003 offseason, the Yankees replaced the loss of Andy Pettitte, Roger Clemens and David Wells with Kevin Brown, Jon Lieber and Javier Vazquez; gave Jaret Wright a three-year, $21 million deal; traded away Tyler Clippard for Jonathan Albaladejo; relied on Carl Pavano and Kei Igawa in 2007 and because of it were forced to pay Roger Clemens $17.1 million for 17 mediocre starts; overhyped and rushed Phil Hughes to the majors; gave Ian Kennedy a starting job he hadn’t earned; replaced Hughes and Kennedy with Darrell Rasner and Sidney Ponson; gave A.J. Burnett a five-year, $82.5 million contract and then traded him to Pittsburgh and paid him to pitch for the Pirates. At this point, I feel like Lenny Koufax telling the judge in Big Daddy all of the reasons why his son, Sonny (Adam Sandler), shouldn’t have custody of Julian. Except there isn’t a happy ending here.

Three weeks ago, the Yankees skipped Michael Pineda’s start to supposedly protect his innings limit. Pineda at the time was 7-2 with a 3.33 ERA and coming off back-to-back wins with 17 strikeouts in 12 2/3 innings. With 10 days rest, he was rocked by the Orioles (4.1 IP, 9 H, 6 R, 5 ER, 2 BB, 2 K, 1 HR). In the four starts since he was skipped, he is 1-3 with a 6.45 ERA, 1.478 WHIP and .311 batting average against. The Yankees interrupted and derailed Pineda’s ace-like season for no reason other than some made-up innings limit idea in order to protect a pitcher who already missed the entire 2012 and 2013 seasons and most of 2014.

Pitchers get hurt. That’s what they do. And the only real way to protect a pitcher from getting hurt is to not let them pitch. The idea that the Yankees have some formula or science to protecting pitchers is a bigger joke than calling Jacoby Ellsbury “tough”. They have no idea what they’re doing, no one does, and even though no one does, the Yankees have even less of an idea than anyone else.

The Yankees’ unnecessarily tinkered with their best starting pitcher’s season and he hasn’t been the same, their $155 million free agent pitcher with a torn elbow has been inconsistent, their former ace wouldn’t be picked up off waivers and their best starter in the last week has made two starts since returning Tommy John surgery. And now their most consistent starter all season is pitching out of the bullpen in games the Yankees are losing.

The Brian Cashman Yankees don’t know pitching. They don’t know how to develop them consistently and they certainly don’t know how to keep them healthy. The only thing the Yankees know when it comes to pitching is how to give a free-agent pitcher a blank check and from there they just hope they stay healthy. Even then, they don’t know what they’re doing.

Blogs • Email Exchanges • Yankees

Jun 29, 2015

Mike Scioscia Is in a Joe Torre Situation

The Yankees let another strong starting pitching performance get away from them in Houston and now they head to Anaheim where they always have trouble.

The Yankees let another strong starting pitching performance get away from them on Sunday in Houston to end up with a split against the first-place Astros. Now the Yankees head to the West Coast for the final time this season to Anaheim where they always have trouble.

With the Yankees and Angels meeting for the second and final time this season, Garrett Wilson of Monkey with a Halo joined me to talk about watching Mike Trout’s young MVP career and Albert Pujols trying to regain his former MVP abilities, the perception of Mike Scioscia in Anaheim and the Angels’ shaky starting rotation.

Keefe: I get sick of hearing about how the Yankees could have drafted New Jersey native Mike Trout if they hadn’t signed Mark Teixeira after the 2008 season, giving the Angels another first-round pick, which they used to draft Trout. It’s nice to think that Trout would have still been there for the Yankees to take, but even if they had, with the way the Yankees develop players, he would probably still be in the minors waiting to make his Major League debut,

The reigning AL MVP is at it again, hitting .300/.389/.575 with 19 home runs and 42 RBIs so far and making a case to be the AL MVP again. Trout is still just 23 and will be an Angel through at least 2020 and will possibly be a free agent at age 28.

How fun is it watching the best player in baseball every day and how relieving is it to know he will be an Angel for at least the next five seasons after this one?

Wilson: That’s funny because I’m tired of hearing it too, mostly because it is a lie. Trout would never have been there. The Angels had the No. 25 pick from the Yanks, but they also had the No. 24 pick. If they only had the No. 24, they would’ve picked Trout. They only selected him 25th for bonus negotiation purposes. But I digress …

It is immensely fun to watch Mike Trout play for your team. I highly recommend that every team go out and get a Mike Trout. It has been especially nice to have him this season because the roster is otherwise intensely painful to watch. Seriously, I can’t stand watching 84 percent of this roster right now, but Trout makes it worth tuning in every single night. Not only does he just consistently do amazing things, but, while he isn’t a fountain of personality, he clearly loves playing the game and that’s just fun to see in a player as good as he is. Not every superstar needs to be a brooding, over-competitive jerk or a carefully cultivated media persona, not that Yankees fans would have any idea what I am talking about with either of those examples.

Keefe: On the bad side of contracts, as of now, Albert Pujols will be an Angel longer than Trout, Pujols is signed through 2021 as part of his 10-year, $240 million deal, and he’s in just his fourth year of that deal.

No one expected Pujols to leave St. Louis and no one thought he would continue to be the player he was in his prime, but now that he’s been an Angel, what have you thought of his production and his renewed power this season? Were you a fan of the signing back before 2012?

Wilson: Seeing Pujols recapture at least part of his former self has been more of a relief than anything. When he signed that albatross contract, everyone knew it wasn’t going to be a good deal, but there was at least the notion that he had a few more MVP-level years left in him. That didn’t happen and it was very depressing. At least this tremendous few weeks from him has given us a glimpse of the Pujols the Angels thought they were getting. Still, even if he keeps it up all season, it isn’t going to do much to make his contract any less of a bad investment.

As for the signing at the time, I sort of half-approved of it. The money involved was always stupid, but I kind of believe Albert when he says that he’ll retire if his performance falls off a cliff before the contract is done. That might be a foolish belief though just because star athletes never admit their performance has deteriorated. Really though the reason I condoned it was because Arte Moreno really needed to show the world that the Angels could land a star free agent, especially after they colossally botched their pursuit of Carl Crawford and Adrian Beltre the year before. In hindsight, that seemed to backfire on the Angels because it emboldened Moreno to throw more big money after Josh Hamilton and we all know how well that turned out.

Keefe: For a long time, we heard about how Mike Scioscia seemed to be the best manager in the majors and how he had the Angels in contention year in and year out despite roster turnover. Well, after 2009, the Angel missed the playoffs for four years before returning to them last season and during that time, the Scioscia lovefest cooled considerably to the point that people believed his job was in question.

Scioscia has a $50 million deal that runs through 2018 and after last season’s performance, I have to believe that he is back in Angels’ fans good graces and has his job security back (if he ever even lost it).

Are you a Scioscia fan? Is he still the right man for the Angels, and did you ever want him fired?

Wilson: Angels fans are in a weird place with Scioscia. I think he has worn out his welcome with a lot of the fans, but those same fans admit that there isn’t any obvious managerial upgrade out there. I am mostly a proponent of Scioscia. He’s evolved a lot of his philosophies around roster optimization and in-game tactics, but he still falls back on some pretty idiotic habits now and again. All of that is overrated though. The thing that Scioscia has always done well and that nobody ever really sees is that he controls the clubhouse. Things, for the first time I can recall, did a get a bit rocky two years ago, but other than that, he’s kept that clubhouse harmonious and kept the team focused.

As for his job security, I actually think there might still be some question about it, though it comes more from his side of things. He has an opt-out in his contract after the year and I have an inkling that he might at least consider walking away if the Dodgers or Phillies come make some overtures. Not unlike with Joe Torre in New York, there just reaches a point where a club just needs a new voice. I’m not sure we’ve reached that point, but Scioscia might given how much he’s sublimated to the front office the last three years. Then again, the front office might not survive this season, so who knows.

Personally, I wouldn’t be upset if Scioscia moved on assuming he is replaced by a manager who is more in tune with general manager Jerry Dipoto’s more sabermetric philosophies. Right now, it feels like both guys are kind of bending over backwards to meet the other guy halfway and it just isn’t working out.

Keefe: On a team that has C.J. Wilson, Jered Weaver and Garrett Richards, it’s Hector Santiago who has the best numbers of the group. When it comes to playing the Angels, I used to fear them as a whole, but after what I saw in the three-game sweep earlier in June at Yankee Stadium, if you can hold the top of their lineup, their starting pitching is vulnerable and very beatable.

Are you worried about the Angels’ rotation?

Wilson: I’m not that worried about that rotation. Santiago has a great ERA right now, but he is wildly outperforming his peripherals. Wilson has actually been much better than his overall numbers, he has been mostly pretty good but has had a few horrible starts that have skewed his line. Richards is looking like an ace again and now that Heaney has been called up and Matt Shoemaker has seemingly fixed his mechanical issues, the only real concern is that Jered Weaver might be washed up.

I know that doesn’t sound like a very convincing case, but you asked if I was worried, not impressed. Make no mistake, this is not a dominant rotation, but it is good enough to give the Angels a chance at winning every night. Whether or not it would hold up in the postseason is an entirely different conversation.

Keefe: Last season, the Angels finished with a 98-64 record, which was the best in Major League Baseball and returned to the playoffs for the first time since 2009. However, once they got there, they were swept by the Royals in the ALDS.

Coming off a 98-win season, but in an improved AL West with the Astros and Rangers being competitive once again, what are your expectations for the Angels this season? Have they changed after watching the team play for nearly one half of the season?

Wilson: Perhaps it was just hubris, but coming into the season I was very confident the Angels would win the AL West with the worst-case scenario being a team that narrowly misses out on the wild card. Now, I am trying to figure out how they are only four games out of first place. Their lineup has cratered in a way that I didn’t think was possible. Trout and Pujols have been terrific and the fact that Johnny Giavotella is actually useful have been very nice, but nobody could’ve predicted that literally everyone else would have the worst offensive performance of their career to date. Freese, Aybar, Joyce, Iannetta and Calhoun have all been disappointing to varying degrees and there just isn’t much hope that they are going to be able to turn it around enough to return this offense to being the elite group it was last season. The only way to give me new hope in this team is if the Angels make a deal (probably two) to beef up the lineup.

Blogs • KTTC Classics • Yankees

Jun 26, 2015

CC Sabathia Is Done

CC Sabathia isn’t returning to the dominant starter he was and it’s hard to see him becoming an average starter at this point.

When the Yankees don’t win the World Series, which is something they have only done once since 2001, Hal Steinbrener, like his father, issues an apology to Yankees fans. Last season, following a second straight postseason-less year for the Yankees, Steinbrenner offered this apology to fans:

“I apologize. We did not do the job this year. We know what you expect of us, and we expect the same thing of ourselves.”

As the Yankees are currently constructed and as the way this season has gone, much like the last two, the goal for the Yankees each season has shifted from winning the World Series to just making the playoffs. And if the Yankees keep going the way they have with their unpredictable swings and lengthy winning and losing streaks, Steinbrenner will be apologizing for the sixth straight season for not bringing a championship to New York and for the third straight season for not even giving Yankees fans a single playoff game.

If Steinbrenner does hand out his now annual apology in the first week of October after Game 162, it will be as much of a joke as CC Sabathia has become. No one wants to hear that ownership and the front office “expect the same things” as the fans while they continue to send Sabathia to the mound every fifth (or now every sixth!) day as the league leader in earned runs and home runs allowed because of his salary, which is exactly why Sabathia pitched on Tuesday night against the Phillies and why he will pitch again next week against the Angels.

Joe Girardi admitted as much after Sabathia’s latest disaster (4.2 IP, 8 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 2 BB, 4 K, 2 HR) that the former ace will remain in the rotation because of money.

“He is a starter for us. That’s what he is and that’s what we are paying him to do and that is what he is going to do.”

Sabathia is making $23 millon this season. If he makes 34 starts, that’s $676,470.59 per start. If he makes 33 starts, that’s $696,969.68 per start. If he makes 32 starts, that’s $718,750 per start. So let’s call it $700,000 per start. That means on Tuesday night, Sabathia did the equivalent of showing up to work at noon, immediately going to lunch, returning to his desk to send one email followed by taking a one hour power nap, waking up and watching the first episode of Ballers on HBO GO at his desk, calling his boss fat and then leaving at 4:00. And he made $700,000 to do that.

It only get worse when it comes to the 34-year-old lefty, who will turn 35 in July. Next season, Sabathia’s salary increase to $25 million for the season, and when you consider his 2011 ERA (33 starts) was 3.00, his 2012 ERA (28 starts) was 3.38, his 2013 ERA (32 starts) was 4.78, his 2014 ERA (eight starts) was 5.28 and his 2015 ERA (15 starts) is 5.65, well, where is this going to go? It could go through the 2017 season, as Sabathia has a $25 million vesting option, which will vest if he doesn’t finish the 2016 season on the disabled list with a left shoulder injury or if he doesn’t spend more than 45 days in 2016 on the disabled list with a left shoulder injury or if he doesn’t make more than six relief appearances in 2016 because of a left shoulder injury. (There is a $5 million buyout if any of these things happen, so the Yankees will have to pay him $5 million to not pitch, which is better than $25 million to pitch and not be good). So the only way the Yankees are getting out of paying Sabathia $50 million in 2016 and 2017 is if he injures his left shoulder, and when he’s not even going five innings in starts, that’s not going to happen. The only way to not throw away $25 million in 2017 is for Girardi to start leaving Sabathia on the mound to throw 150-pitch complete games, or hope that he retires and walks away from the money, and that’s not happening. So if you think this season has been bad or 2014 and 2013 were bad, it’s not going to get better.

I have written several times that Sabathia needs to find a way to get outs without overpowering hitters the way his former teammate Andy Pettitte and supposed best friend Cliff Lee were able to do. With the Yankees in Houston, it was made known that Pettitte and Sabathia have talked frequently as Sabathia’s velocity and repertoire has changed, and if this is true, when are the changes going to take place, or are they ever? And do we know Sabathia and Pettitte are even talking about pitching when they talk? They could be talking about anything.

At this point, I treat every Sabathia start like a trip to the casino. If you plan on spending $500 at the casino then you’re going into it assuming you’re going to lose that $500 and anything you don’t lose or if you happen to end up winning, it’s an unexpected bonus. When Sabathia takes the mound, I assume the Yankees are going to lose, and if they aren’t blown out, he will certainly blow a lead they have given him at some point in the game. If he comes out in a tie game, with the Yankees winning, it’s the unexpected bonus. That’s not how it should work for starting pitcher making $23 million this season, $25 million next season and possibly another $25 million in 2017.

During the 2011 season, I said “Jorge Posada is like the aging family dog that just wanders around aimlessly and goes to the bathroom all over the place and just lies around and sleeps all day. You try to pretend like the end isn’t near and you try to remember the good times to get through the bad times, and once in a while the dog will do something to remind you of what it used to be, but it’s just momentary tease.” Well, that aging family dog has become Sabathia.

The next time Sabathia puts the Yankees in a hole before they even come up to bat for the first time, I will try to remember his first four seasons with the Yankees when he went 74-29 with a 3.22 ERA. The next time, he lets the 7-8-9 hitters get on base to start a rally, I will try to remember his win in Game 1 of the 2009 ALDS, his dominance over the Angels and winning the ALCS MVP in 2009 and his role in beating the Phillies in the 2009 World Series. The next time he can’t get through five innings, forcing the bullpen to be overused, I will try to remember his Game 5 win in the 2010 ALCS against the Rangers to save the season. And the next time he blows a three-run lead the inning following the Yankees taking that lead, I will try to remember his wins in Games 1 and 5 against the Orioles in the 2012 ALDS to get the Yankees out of the first round.

I will try to remember the good times CC Sabathia once gave us nearly every time he took the ball because they hardly happen anymore and they are only to going to become more rare. I wish there were more good times to come, but there aren’t.

Blogs • Email Exchanges • Yankees

Jun 22, 2015

Yankees-Phillies Puts Focus on Cole Hamels’ Future

The last time the Yankees and Phillies met in the regular season it meant something, but now it just means watching Cole Hamels audition.

The last time the Yankees played the Phillies was June 2010. Back then, it was a rematch of the 2009 World Series, the Phillies had added Roy Halladay to their starting rotation and CC Sabathia faced him in the first game of a three-game series at the Stadium. A lot has changed for both teams since they were on top of their respective leagues and the rivalry that was created in October 2009 has faded.

With the Yankees and Phillies meeting for the first time in five years, John Stolnis of The Good Phight joined me to talk about what’s happened to the Phillies in the last four years, how Ruben Amaro, Jr. still has a job and what the Phillies will do with Cole Hamels.

Keefe: In December 2010, the Phillies signed Cliff Lee, the Yankees didn’t and I was sure my 2011 baseball season was ruined. The Yankees and Phillies both went on to reach the playoffs and both had early exits in a year the Phillies were expected to win the World Series with their vaunted pitching staff. Since then, the Phillies have missed the playoffs the last three years and are on their way to being the worst team in the majors this season.

When you look back to October 2011, did you think not even four years later the Phillies would be in such a bad place?

Stolnis: Well, this email has started off well, reminding me of when my team died it’s slow, agonizing death and then asking me to painstakingly relive it so that I might reintroduce the trauma and night terrors it created. Sure, let’s chat about it!

No, I didn’t think things were going to be THIS bad, but I think after the 2012 season we all knew it was time for a change, that veteran players needed to be traded and that it was time to start a rebuilding process. But because they waited so long to do it, two years too long in my opinion, the rebuilding is beginning with very few Major League ready chips in place. And the veterans, Chase Utley especially, have degraded faster than I thought they would.

There are three good players on this team: Cole Hamels, Jonathan Papelbon and Maikel Franco. Maybe Ken Giles, too. So no, I didn’t see us becoming the laughingstock of baseball after the 2011 season, but it certainly did seem like the window was closing.

Keefe: That bad place has been a product of Ruben Amaro, Jr.’s general managerial skills, which have included bad contracts and an unwillingness to unload his tradable veterans. And on top of that Amaro called out the fans earlier this season, which I’m sure went over well in Philadelphia.

Does Amaro have any supporters left? How does he still have his job?

Stolnis: In terms of the general public, Ruben Amaro is about as popular as gang green. He made a lot of mistakes over the last few years, but to be honest, I think most of those mistakes were at the direction of former team president David Montgomery, who forced the team to hold off onto the rebuilding effort. I truly believe it was Monty who drove the Ryan Howard extension and the Chase Utley extension, although I do believe it was Amaro who made the Papelbon deal (which hasn’t been awful as it turns out, seeing as how he’s been so good), and other smaller, stupid deals (Michael Young, Delmon Young, Ty Wigginton, etc.).

I actually think Amaro and new team president Pat Gillick have done OK over the last year, but it may be too little too late. There’s not much confidence in Amaro, and when the team hires a new president to succeed Gillick (likely at the end of the season), I’m pretty sure he’s going to want to hire his own guy. So, I do believe the clock is ticking.

Keefe: Amaro had his chance to trade Cliff Lee several times and I’m sure the Yankees would have willingly traded for him after missing out on him in July 2010 and December 2010. Now Lee’s career could be over and all the Phillies got for him was the chance to continue to pay him an exorbitant amount of money to not pitch. The Phillies are faced with a similar situation this season with Cole Hamels and the never-ending trade rumors that surround him.

What will happen with Hamels? Are we looking at another missed opportunity for the Phillies to fix things?

Stolnis: Hamels is a completely different situation than Lee. First, he’s younger. Second, Hamels has no injury history whatsoever, and is extraordinarily cautious about his body when he feels something wrong. He informed team medical personnel right away last week when he felt the slightest twinge in his hamstring, which is incredibly smart. So while I do think the Phils should be actively looking to trade Hamels, it has to be for the right deal.

The national media seem to want Amaro to trade Hamels simply for the sake of trading him. But Amaro and the Phillies need to get the Cole trade right. They need at least on blue chip piece in return, and they shouldn’t move him until they get it. Even if Hamels hurts himself this year, he’s still under team control for three years, in order to try and get the trade done. Hamels is elite, and he shouldn’t be sold as something other than elite, just to meet some time frame the national media thinks is there.

Keefe: When it comes to homegrown players and players that helped you win and enjoy baseball for so many seasons, I never have a problem with overpaying for them and letting them wear out their welcome. The Yankees did it with Derek Jeter and Bernie Williams and Jorge Posada and I didn’t have an issue with it any time. There needs to be some form of loyalty and if it means letting guys, who won you multiple championships, hang around a little too long then so be it. The Phillies have done a similar thing with Howard and Utley.

Were you against the extensions for both or part of the group that remains loyal to the old guard for the good years when the Phillies were winning?

Stolnis: I wasn’t against Howard when it happened, but I quickly realized how wrong I was. I didn’t think the Utley extension was a good idea, I thought they should have traded him. That being said, I would have been more OK with it if the team had drafted better over the last decade, then the veteran deals wouldn’t have hurt so much.

But the Phils have gotten a negative WAR out of their-first round picks over the last 10 years, the only team in MLB to do that. You can keep those old guys around as long as there are young guys to supplement it. The Phils don’t have them (other than Franco right now), which makes the veteran deals look even worse.

Keefe: This year will be the fourth straight year with postseason baseball for the Phillies and really without a competitive team. They are seven years removed from their World Series win and six years removed from their World Series loss.

When can we expect the Phillies to return to being the team to beat in the NL East?

Stolnis: You’re already counting out the Phils from postseason baseball? That’s bulletin board material! YOU HEAR THAT BOYS, THEY THINK YOU SUCK! KILL ‘EM!

It’s going to be at least three to four years before the Phils are contenders for the division. The Mets have assembled a ridiculously talented pitching staff. The Nationals are going to be good for a while. The Marlins have Jose Fernandez and Giancarlo Stanton, and I think will be good next year. The Braves, well, they’ve got a rebuild going too.

The Phils have some good talent in the low minors, but it’s going to be a while. The good news is, once they get a couple young guys with promise up to the majors, they have the financial ability to spend, spend, spend, just like the Yankees. So, they just need a little infrastructure in place, but it’s probably going to be a couple more years before that happens.

Author: Neil Keefe

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