Neil Keefe

Sep 24, 2015

NFL Week 3 Picks

The key to the picks season is surviving Week 2. A 7-9 Week 2 isn’t anything to be excited about, but it’s enough to survive, and set up a very important Week 3.

The Giants have been a losing team for a long time. They’re 0-2 right now. They were 6-10 last season. They were 7-9 in 2013, and at 6-2 in 2012 with a chance to win the NFC East, they finished 3-5. Put all of that together and you have a 16-26 record over the last 42 games over parts of four seasons with obviously no playoff appearances. Four of those 16 wins came against the Redskins as the Giants have gone 12-26 against teams not named the Redskins since Week 9 of 2012.

Tom Coughlin survived the second-half collapse of 2012 because of the Super Bowl XLII win the year before. He survived a losing season in 2013 and again in 2014 because of Super Bowl XLII and XLVI. But after this now lengthy stretch of losing, time is running out on Tom Coughlin and his Giants era, which is in its 12th year. The Giants aren’t going to fire Coughlin in the middle of the season if the losing continues and if the team is unable to compete in the wide-open and horrible NFC East, but this will be the beginning of the end of the Coughlin era if the Giants don’t start winning and change the late-game losing culture they have established.

Luckily for the Giants, at 0-2, they’re facing the one team they have been able to count for wins in recent years: the Redskins.

The key to the picks season is surviving Week 2. A 7-9 Week 2 isn’t anything to be excited about, but it’s enough to survive.

(Home team in caps)

NEW YORK GIANTS -3.5 over Washington
In any other division, at 0-2 with a divisional loss, the Giants would be in serious trouble. But in the NFC East, where the 2-0 Cowboys are without Tony Romo and Dez Bryant and the 0-2 Eagles are a disaster and the 1-1 Redskins are the Redskins, the Giants aren’t in the worst place. Sure, it would be nice if they could finish in the final minutes of the fourth quarter and be 2-0 right now, but the season isn’t over … yet. If they lose at home on Thursday Night Football to the Redskins, then yes, the season is over. Unfortunately, in the NFC East, even at 0-3, the Giants probably aren’t even out of it, but I’m going to pretend they will be.

Pittsburgh -2 over ST. LOUIS
The Steelers are getting Le’Veon Bell back in time to face the vaunted home defense of the Rams. I say “home defense” because when you go to Washington and allow 24 points and lose by 14, it doesn’t matter that you beat the two-time defending NFC champions in the season opener. Along with the Patriots, the Steelers are at the top of the AFC right now and were even before the return of Bell. Now that Bell is back and with Martavis Bryant back in two weeks, the Steelers are only going to get stronger. Even though I could care less about the Steelers, I care about the AFC having at least one or two teams that are somewhat good and could prevent the Patriots from yet another easy walk through the postseason, so that’s why I want, no I need the Steelers to be good.

MINNESOTA -2.5 over San Diego
The Chargers opened the season in San Diego against Detroit. Then they flew to Cincinnati to play the Bengals. Then they flew back to San Diego. Now they are flying back to Minnesota to play the Vikings. That’s a lot of travel in the last nine or 10 days once this game kicks off on Sunday, which will have included going three time zones east, three time zones back west and then two time zones east again in that span.

HOUSTON -6.5 over Tampa Bay
Aside from cutting Charles James in training camp and naming Brian Hoyer the starter over Ryan Mallett, Hard Knocks made me want to like the Texans. But after losing their first two games to the Chiefs and Panthers, it’s getting harder to like the Texans and believe in them. This is it for me and the Texans. They have cost me two picks already this season and if their defense can’t hold a rookie quarterback without his best receiver at full strength then I’m done with the Texans.

NEW YORK JETS -3 over Philadelphia
I originally thought if the Jets didn’t win against the Browns in Week 1 that there would be a real chance they could be 1-3 heading into their Week 4 bye. That’s the danger of trying to predict wins and losses in the NFL before the season. The Jets’ Weeks 2-4 matchups at Indianapolis, against the Philadelphia and at Miami looked like an early-season gauntlet. But in two weeks, the Colts have proven they haven’t improved since last season, the Eagles are an 0-2 mess and the Dolphins are once again all preseason hype. Now not only are the Jets not going to start the season 1-3, they might be 4-0 heading into their bye and with the Redskins on the schedule in Week 6, they might be 5-0 heading to New England. Nearly five years after we got the 9-2 Jets against the 9-2 Patriots on Monday Night Football, we might get the 5-0 Jets against the 5-0 Patriots this season.

CAROLINA -6.5 over New Orleans
I used to believe in the Saints inside the Superdome no matter what the line was. But after losing five home games last season and losing to the Buccaneers at home last week, that theory is officially over. The Saints are a bad team and they aren’t getting any better and it might be getting close to a complete change in New Orleans. The problem is the Saints have been so inconsistent and winning enough to not bottom out and force an overhaul. This season, they’re 0-2. Last season, they were 7-9. In 2013, they were 11-5 and won a playoff game. In 2012, they were 7-9. In 2011, they were 13-3 and won a playoff game. In 2010, they were 11-5 and lost their first playoff game. The Saints have had just enough success to keep their core in tact even if they haven’t been good enough to win it all since winning it all in 2009.

NEW ENGLAND -14 over Jacksonville
The only team I ever feel confident picking to cover or win in New England is the Giants. The Jaguars’ win at home against the Dolphins was nice and they seem to be finally headed in the right direction without a winning season since 2007, but this is a terrible spot for them to be in. The Patriots just went to Buffalo and put up 507 yards on the Bills’ defense and left Bills fans devastated. Now they return home where they have lost like three games in 15 years and are facing a young and inexperienced Jaguars team. The Patriots will be 3-0 heading into their bye week before going to Dallas to face the Tony Romo- and Dez Bryant-less Cowboys and then going to Indianapolis to try to hang 80 on the Colts for Deflategate. The Patriots are going to be 5-0 before their Week 7 game against the Jets and that’s the next time I will have to really think about the Patriots not covering.

BALTIMORE -2.5 over Cincinnati
The Ravens, along with the Saints and Rams destroyed survivor pools last week. I wasn’t expecting the Ravens to go to Oakland where the Bengals had ran the Raiders out of their own building a week before and lose. The Ravens are in unchartered territory under John Harbaugh at 0-2 and have to play the undefeated Bengals this week and then go to Pittsburgh on a short week next week. This is it for the 2015 Ravens this week and to think in January they were blowing two 14-point leads against the Patriots away from playing the Colts in the AFC Championship Game, which basically would have meant they were going to play in the Super Bowl.

Oakland +3.5 over CLEVELAND
After not having “that game” last week, this game is “that game” this week …

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Raiders fan or a Browns fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Thank about that.

Mike Pettine deciding to name Josh McCown the starting quarterback this week after Johnny Manziel led the team to a win last week is the most Browns decision ever. Josh McCown is a 36-year-old journeyman, who has never been good. He isn’t going to lead the Browns to the playoffs this year and unless Pettine knows 100 percent that his job is safe with another losing season and that he can hope Manziel will be the full-time starter next season, this decision makes no sense. Actually, it makes no sense anyway. After sitting behind Brian Hoyer last season and McCown this season, it’s not like he’s exactly learning from some former MVP or an all-time quarterback or even a decent one. Manziel continuing to sit on the bench is stunting his growth and preventing the Browns from moving on and improving. I hope the Browns are embarrassed by the Raiders.

TENNESSEE +3.5 over Indianapolis
I hate the Colts for starting Deflategate and making the last eight months unbearable after they served as a red carpet in the AFC Championship Game for the Patriots to get into the Super Bowl. So it puts a smile on my face to see Andrew Luck with five interceptions in the first two games and a very average roster around him playing that way. Maybe I will eventually have enough confidence in the Colts to pick them, and maybe that eventually is next week at home against the Jaguars, but for now, I’m selling the Colts hard just like everyone else seems to be.

Atlanta -2 over DALLAS
The Falcons in a dome outside of Georgia aren’t exactly the same as the Falcons inside the Georgia Dome, but they’re certainly better than the Cowboys without their quarterback, without their top wide receiver and their all-time tight end suffering from various injuries being so banged up he might not play.

SEATTLE -15 over Chicago
A 15-point line in the NFL is a rare occurrence. We saw it on nearly a weekly basis during the Patriots’ 2007 season, but it’s very, very, very hard to get a two-touchdown line, especially in Week 3. It takes a perfect storm of events to get a line like this, and in this instance, the perfect storm is the Seahawks being 0-2 and returning home for the first time since the NFC Championship Game and the Bears being a bad 0-2 team without their starting quarterback and top wide receiver heading to the hardest place for a road team to win in the NFL. The Seahawks are going to win this game and most likely won’t give up a single point. This line is too low.

Buffalo +3 over MIAMI
The Dolphins are the biggest frauds in the NFL. I’m sick and tired of annually hearing how this is the Dolphins year and this is the season they are going to challenge the Patriots for the AFC East. After squeaking out a win against the Redskins in Week 1, the Dolphins lost to the Jaguars in Week 2, blowing what was the easiest two-week schedule to open the season in the league. I’m now rooting against the Dolphins.

Denver -3.5 over DETROIT
I was worried about Peyton Manning before the season started and his Week 1 performance made me worry even more. Then the first half of his Week 2 performance made me worry even more. But during the second half of the Broncos’ win at Arrowhead, Manning didn’t look like his old self, but he looked like a guy that figured out how to play and win with what’s left of his arm and abilities. If he can work his magic after traveling to Kansas City on a short week to win on Thursday Night Football, he can certainly win in perfect conditions inside Ford Field against an 0-2 and headed nowhere Lions team.

GREEN BAY -7 over Kansas City
The Packers are the best team in the NFC and their come-from-behind and convincing win over the Seahawks in Week 2 made me realize the NFC is likely to run through Lambeau Field this winter. These touchdown-or-less lines for the Packers aren’t going to be around much longer with the way they’re playing, so you better get in on them before they’re gone.

Last week: 7-9-0
Season: 16-15-1

Blogs • Subway Series • Yankees

Sep 21, 2015

2015 Subway Series Diary: Citi Field

The most important Subway Series will always be the 2000 World Series, but after that, the three-game series this past weekend At Citi Field might be next on the list.

The most important Subway Series will always be the 2000 World Series, but after that, the three-game series this past weekend At Citi Field might be next on the list. This late in the season with the Yankees trying to pass the Blue Jays and the Mets trying to hold off the Nationals, there hasn’t been a Subway Series holding this much significance with this much at stake in a long, long time.

I decided to go to the diary format that I have used for the Subway Series in the past to look back at this weekend. Like always, just pretend like you’re reading this in one of those black-and-white Mead composition notebooks.

FRIDAY
I would have complained about Joe Girardi’s lineup on Friday night, but how can you complain about this lineup when the team has a 10-game lead in the AL East on Sept. 18?

Brett Gardner – CF
Chase Headley – 3B
Carlos Beltran – RF
Chris Young -LF
Greg Bird – 1B
John Ryan Murphy – C
Didi Gregroius – SS
Brendan Ryan – 2B
Masahiro Tanaka – P

With Alex Rodriguez, Brian McCann and Jacoby Ellsbury on the bench, that’s $59,142,857 worth of salary for 2015 on the bench for what is a crucial series in order to win the AL East. But that’s Joe Girardi for you. He doesn’t care if it’s April 18 or Sept. 18 or Game 1 of the ALDS, if there’s a left-handed pitcher on the mound, he’s going to tinker with his lineup as much as possible. It’s who he is.

It came as no surprise that this lineup scored one run in the first inning and then magically didn’t score for the rest of the game. It was painful to watch the Yankees load the bases in the ninth inning against Jeurys Familia, thanks to a walk from A-Rod and pinch-hit single from Ellsbury after the two start the game, only to lose because streaky Brett Gardner couldn’t get a hit and Chase Headley struck out, which he seems to do a lot.

The lineup was bad and the game was bad, but was the worst was after the game when Girardi said it was tough without A-Rod and McCann as if they were injured or suspended when it was Girardi’s decision to not play them. Ladies and gentlemen, Joe Girardi!

SATURDAY
The Yankees always win on my birthday, so I wasn’t surprised when they won again on my birthday.

But if you watched the game on FOX, you would never have known that the Yankees won the game and lit up Noah Syndergaard. The FOX broadcast just kept saying over and over how great Syndergaard was pitching and if only he hadn’t given up a first-inning, three-run home run to Carlos Beltran and a sixth-inning, two-run home run to Brian McCann then he would have pitched a shutout. Where was this kind of analysis for Game 7 of the 2004 ALCS? If Kevin Brown hadn’t given up a first-inning, two-run home run to David Ortiz and hadn’t loaded the bases before Javier Vazquez gave up the grand slam to Johnny Damon then the Yankees would have won the game!

Of course Joe Girardi went to Dellin Betances in the eighth inning of a 5-0 game after having gone to Justin Wilson in the seventh inning with the score the same. And of course he brought in James Pazos to start the ninth to get one out and then brought in Chris Martin thinking he would end the game cleanly only to have to bring in Andrew Miller to close out a 5-0 game with two on and two out as if a three-run home run would hurt them or as if a five-run home run exists.

SUNDAY
The Blue Jays lost to the Red Sox on Saturday night and Sunday afternoon, so the Yankees deficit in the AL East was down to 3 entering Sunday Night Baseball.

When CC Sabathia gave up back-to-back doubles to start the game, I was thankful for football season starting, so I could always resort to Sunday Night Football if the game got out of hand. Fortunately, it didn’t.

Future (most likely) Yankee Matt Harvey comes to pitch when he goes against the Yankees. After shutting them down in April when he allowed two earned runs over 8 2/3 innings at Yankee Stadium. You know he feels like he is auditioning each time he pitches against the Yankees and with the Mets looking to wrap up the NL East and the Yankees trying to stay in the AL East race, you knew he would come to pitch on national TV in primetime.

When the Yankees went down in order in the first, I thought he might pitch a perfect game. After Chase Headley walked in the second inning, I thought he would pitch a no-hitter. When Brett Gardner singled with two outs in the third, I was able to breathe a sigh of relief. However, I figured the Yankees would go the entire game without scoring and blow the opportunity the Blue Jays gave them with back-to-back losses. But then Matt Harvey’s innings limit took over. Sandy Alderson told Buster Olney on ESPN during the fourth inning that the fifth inning would be Harvey’s last and that’s when I knew the Yankees could win the game.

I don’t really understand the Matt Harvey/Scott Boras/Sandy Alderson innings situation. Harvey isn’t a free agent until after the 2018 season, so it’s not like he’s on the brink of a nine-figure contract. He needs to stay healthy for the rest of this season and next season and the season after that and the season after that. I understand that this is his first year following surgery, but there’s no proof that him pitching a certain amount of innings this season or next season or any season is going to be prevent him from re-injuring his elbow the same way there was no way to know he would injure it the first time. But what I don’t get is how the player and his agent aren’t on the same page as the team and clearly haven’t been all season. Did Matt Harvey tell Scott Boras to enforce this limit? Did Scott Boras advise Matt Harvey not to go past the limit? Did Scott Boras change a limit that was already agreed upon with the Mets? Is Matt Harvey really going to shut himself down the way Stephen Strasburg did in 2012, which might have cost the Nationals a championship?

I could care less if Harvey pitches again this season or in the postseason. The only time I will care how often or how much Harvey pitches is if he one day plays for the Yankees. All I care about is the Yankees winning, and for now, Harvey helped them do that on Sunday night by coming out of that game.

ESPN continued to talk about Harvey as if he’s Clayton Kershaw while the Yankees continued to pour it on against the Mets’ bullpen, which will be their downfall in the postseason. Four runs in the sixth, one run in the seventh and five more runs in the eighth and in a game they could barely get a hit in for five innings, the Yankees won 11-2 and won the 2015 Subway Series 4-2.

When I woke up on Monday morning, I expected the city to be different since the Mets had apparently taken it back despite losing both legs of the Subway Series and watching their franchise ace come out of a game after five innings on Sunday Night Baseball. I thought I would get an email or a phone call to let me know the Mets had taken back the city, but I got nothing. The Mets and their fans are still and always will be the little brother.

Blogs • Email Exchanges

Sep 18, 2015

Giants Already in Must-Win Mode Against Falcons

The Giants’ Week 1 disaster has them looking at a potential must-win game in Week 2. The one problem with that is Julio Jones and Roddy White are coming to East Rutherford.

The Giants’ Week 1 disaster has them looking at a potential must-win game in Week 2. Sure, it might sound crazy to have a must-win game in Week 2, but after the way the last two season’s spiraled out of control early, the Giants have to be better on Sunday. The one problem with that is Julio Jones and Roddy White are coming to East Rutherford.

With the Falcons coming to MetLife for the Giants’ home opener, Dave Choate of The Falcoholic joined me to talk about the team’s decline over the last two seasons, the firing of Mike Smith and hiring of Pat Quinn and whether or not the criticism of Matt Ryan is fair.

Keefe: Three seasons ago, the Falcons had a 17-0 lead in the NFC Championship Game over the 49ers before eventually losing 28-24. I remember the game clearly because I had a 10-to-1 parlay on the Falcons and Ravens to win the championship games that day, but I’m sure you remember it even better.

After back-to-back first-round losses, it looked like the Falcons would finally overcome their postseason problems over the last 13 years and return to the Super Bowl for the first time since 1998. It didn’t work out and the Falcons followed it up with a 4-12 season in 2013 and a 6-10 season last year.

From being the No. 1 seed in the NFC and so close to getting to the Super Bowl only to become a third-place team in the NFC South, what happened to the Falcons over the last two years since their meltdown?

Choate: It was a lot of things at once. Mike Smith was a capable, even-keeled coach who had trouble when things started to go awry. Injuries hit, the team couldn’t get a ground game going, and too many players were unmitigated disasters on defense.

With the team feeling its lack of depth due to misses in the draft and free agency, Smith making a handful of very poor decisions that turned the fanbase against him, and the Week 17 collapse against the Panthers, ownership felt it was time to make a change. We’ll hope that bears fruit.

Keefe: After being on the hot seat for several seasons, Mike Smith was finally fired by the Falcons in December following seven seasons as head coach and just one playoff win. He was Coach of the Year in his first season (2008) with the Falcons and the team had two first-place finishes and three second-place finishes, but 2013 and 2014 were too much to overcome.

Now the team has former Seahawks defensive coordinator Dan Quinn as the team’s head coach and he won in his debut in Week 1 against the Eagles.

Were you a Smith fan and were you in agreement with his firing? Was Quinn your choice to replace him?

Smith: I always liked Smith, and I felt bad he was run out of town and had his otherwise sterling reputation tarred by the 2012 NFC Championship Game and the 2013 and 2014 seasons. That said, it was tough to argue with the idea that this team needed a change, given how poorly they played and how thoroughly everyone locally had turned on the team.

Quinn was probably my second or third choice to replace Smith (I liked Todd Bowles and Rex Ryan), but he’s proven to be a terrific hire thus far. Admittedly, it’s early.

Keefe: Matt Ryan had an impressive start to his career, but like any other quarterback, who hasn’t been part of a championship team or a team that has reached the Super Bowl, the lazy rhetoric that he can’t win the big game has started to be associated with him. Even if he has been asked to lead less-than-stellar teams in recent years, the attention always comes back to the quarterback though Ryan’s stats for each of his first seven seasons are pretty much identical.

Even as the team struggled the last two seasons, Ryan still had his usual seasons, which would have been good enough to win on many other all-around teams.

Are you a Ryan fan? Is the questioning of his big-game play fair?

Choate: The questioning of his mistakes is fair. Ryan can sometimes take risks and make sloppy throws that lead to turnovers, and that’s always going to hang over his head until he stops doing it entirely. It’s still relatively rare that his mistakes cost the Falcons the game, though, and I do think he takes more criticism than is warranted given his overall level of performance

Overall, I think Ryan is a top eight quarterback in the NFL, one of the league’s most dependable performers, and that it’s very possible he’s heading for his best year ever. I’m excited to see what he’ll do in 2015.

Keefe: Last week I had to worry about Dez Bryant before dehydration and a broken foot removed him from the game. This week, I have to worry about the two-headed monster of Julio Jones and Roddy White, but luckily I don’t have to worry about the Giants playing them in the Georgia Dome.

The Giants have a two-headed monster of their own in Odell Beckham Jr. and Victor Cruz, but Cruz didn’t play last week and won’t play this week and with Beckham missing the beginning of last season and Cruz missing most of last season, the two haven’t even played two full games together.

As a Falcons fan, you have had to deal with both Jones and White missing time in recent seasons. So I turn to you to ask how frustrating is it to know how could your offense can be when healthy, but isn’t healthy?

Choate: Extremely frustrating. The 2013 season was ruined by Julio Jones’ injury and the offensive line falling apart, and knowing that you’re without some of your top playmakers makes every loss and middling performance agonizing.

I hate to tell you this, but you’re headed for some unhappy days.

Keefe: If there’s a such thing as a must-win game in Week 2, this is it for the Giants. After blowing last week’s opener in Dallas, the Giants need to rebound before hosting the Redskins on Thursday Night Football. The good news is the Falcons are a different team when they play away from Georgia Dome and outside. The bad news is the Giants don’t usually play well at home.

For the Falcons, they had a nice Week 1 win over the Eagles as a home underdog, and have a tough start to their season with the Giants this week on the road, in Dallas next week and then home again the Texans the week after.

What do you expect to happen on Sunday?

Choate: I think a desperate Giants team at home is dangerous, and I fear the Falcons will fall to them in a fairly close game. My expectation is a 27-21 Giants win, with the Falcons suffering a little defensive pullback and some struggles playing outside of the Georgia Dome.

I do think it’ll be close, either way, and I hope the Falcons can pull one out.

Blogs • Giants

Sep 17, 2015

NFL Week 2 Picks

It’s hard to know what’s real and what’s not when you only have one week of results to go by and that’s what makes Week 2 the hardest week to pick in the season.

There isn’t an overreaction in the world greater than that after Week 1 in the NFL. After Week 1 we are led to believe that Peyton Manning is finished, Marcus Mariota is the best quarterback ever, the Seahawks’ NFC reign is over, Pete Carroll is an idiot … actually, that’s true … the Vikings are the worst team in football, Joe Flacco is the worst quarterback in the league, the Jets are back and it’s incredible that Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin won two Super Bowls … that might be true too.

Week 1 takes everything you think you know about football and takes all the opinions you made in the offseason and momentarily justifies or destroys them. It can completely change how you go about viewing and picking Week 2 and leave you in a deep state of devastation or financially ruined after the early games if you’re not careful. It’s hard to know what’s real and what’s not when you only have one week of results to go by and that’s what makes Week 2 the hardest week to pick in the season.

(Home team in caps)

KANSAS CITY -3 over Denver
Peyton Manning is lucky his defense bailed him out on Sunday against the Ravens, or the Broncos would be headed to Arrowhead at 0-1 and looking at a possible 0-2 start to the season.

The last two games Peyton has played have to be two of his, if not the worst, of his career. The home playoff debacle after a bye week last season was shocking and whatever he was doing in Week 1 against Baltimore was frightening. I don’t know if this is the Peyton we will see from now until he retires, but if it is, it’s going to be hard to back the Broncos this season.

Houston +3 over CAROLINA
Here’s what I said last week about the Texans:

I’m not sure how Bill O’Brien and Rick Smith came to the conclusion that Brian Hoyer should be the Texans’ starting quarterback over Ryan Mallett. To be fair, it’s not like he named Hoyer the starter over a clearly more talented player and the two likely have the same amount of ability. But did they watch Hoyer play for the Browns? If you’re looking for one touchdown, two interceptions and 227 yards then Hoyer is your guy because that’s what he is and because we know what he is, why not start Mallett? At least there is a chance he might be somewhat good or at least better than Hoyer.

Guess who’s the starting quarterback for the Texans this week? Ryan Mallett.

I was a little off on Hoyer’s game since he threw for 236 yards, one touchdown and only one interception, but if I knew that it was inevitable that he would lose his starting job, how could Bill O’Brien not know this? The Texans wasted one of 16 games last week in what was a very winnable home game and a game they lost by 7 despite Hoyer doing his absolute best to lose it. With the Texans’ defense, Mallett doesn’t even have to be great, he just has to be better than Hoyer, and that’s not hard to do.

NEW ORLEANS -10 over Tampa Bay
Ah, the Saints in the Superdome. There are a few things that you can can count on when picking NFL games like always taking the points in NFC East matchups, always taking the points in Steelers-Ravens games and always taking the Saints at home in the Superdome to cover any spread. There might not be any guarantees in gambling, but those are the three things you can actually feel confident about.

Jameis Winston gave Marcus Mariota a headstart on everyone thinking the Buccaneers drafted the wrong guy No. 1 and in the 30 for 30 about the two in 20 years, there is a lot of video from Week 1 of 2015 to sort through. After this week’s loss in New Orleans, the Bucs go to Houston and by then will be 0-3 and the countdown clock until Lovie Smith’s firing will be closing in on zero.

PITTSBURGH -6 over San Francisco
The 49ers will only go as far as Carlos Hyde takes them. I don’t think Colin Kaepernick is very good since he hasn’t been able to adjust to the league after it adjusted to him, making Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith and Vernon Davis non-factors, which had made the offense revolve around Hyde’s legs. The Steelers had 10 days off and coming off a loss and having their home opener and having the opportunity to prepare to shut down Hyde is a recipe for disaster for the 49ers, whose over/under win total was 6.5. This is going to be one of those 9.5 losses.

MINNESOTA -2.5 over Detroit
When it comes to Week 1 overreactions, the idea that the Vikings might be the worst team in football is at the top of the list. A bad game on the road in San Francisco against a team everyone had left for dead despite being two-plus years removed from the Super Bowl and one-plus year removed from the NFC Championship Game isn’t going to end the Vikings’ season. There’s no way an offense with Teddy Bridgewater, Adrian Peterson, Mike Wallace and Charles Johnson can be as bad as they were in San Francisco, and there’s no way the Vikings defense is going to let someone embarrass them again the way that Carlos Hyde did in his debut as a starting running back.

BUFFALO +1.5 over New England
After the Giants-Falcons game, this is the game I care the most about this week. Rex Ryan and his 1-0 Bills that have everyone talking because they routed the fraud Colts against Bill Belichick and his 1-0 Patriots that have everyone talking because whenever they win a game for the rest of eternity, there’s going to be some report that cheating might have been involved.

The Rex Ryan Bills looked exactly like the Rex Ryan Jets last week, and that’s not such a bad thing for going up against the Patriots because the Rex Ryan Jets had as much success as anyone not named the New York Football Giants against the Patriots in recent years. A Bills win will have Rex running his mouth as well as he ever did in New York and a Patriots loss might finally get some of the talk about the air pressure in footballs, the frequencies on headsets, the taping of other team’s sidelines and all the other rumored cheating ways of the Patriots to potentially fade. I can dream.

Arizona -2.5 over CHICAGO
Here’s what I said last week about the Bears:

This season I have made a pledge to myself to go hard after the Bears. I’m not getting suckered into thinking they can or will be good and I’m not changing my mind on them.

And I know exactly what the Bears are trying to do me right now. They lost a close game 31-23 to the Packers at home (even though they scored a very late touchdown to make it an eight-point game) and they want me to think, “Hey, the Bears nearly covered against the NFC favorites and now they’re home again against a much lesser offense giving points? Why not take the Bears?” In the past I would have fallen for this trap game, picked the Bears and then watched Jay Cutler throw the game away despite having two stud wide receivers (one of them is now with the Jets), a top running back and a great receiving tight end. Not this year. I’m not falling for the Bears this year.

CLEVELAND +2 over Tennessee
When Johnny Manziel entered Sunday’s game against the Jets and immediately threw a touchdown pass to take the lead, the thought of the Johnny Football era taking off at the hands of the Jets made me smile and feel warm inside. But after that play, Manziel looked exactly like the guy we saw last season, who couldn’t win the starting quarterback job over Brian Hoyer, and the Jets went on to blow out the Browns.

No matter what happens in this game, we all lose. If the Titans win, Marcus Mariota is 2-0 and the best quarterback in history. If the Browns win, it’s going to be Johnny Football all day and all night for the next week. I think I would rather hear about Manziel than Mariota, but since I have been a full-time passenger on the Johnny Football bandwagon, a home loss to the Titans, will have me jumping ship for the foreseeable future.

San Diego +3.5 over CINCINNATI
It’s the Battle of Which Team Has Screwed Me Over More Over the Years. I don’t really know who is worse in this situation when it comes to having to back either Philip Rivers or Andy Dalton, but like the Bears, I made a promise to myself to stay away from the Bs this season: the Bears, Bengals and Browns. I have given myself one mulligan for this season, and unfortunately, my wanting Johnny Football to work out led me to use that mulligan this week to pick the Browns. If the Browns win, I retain my Bs mulligan and can use it on a future game, so maybe at some point I will pick the Bengals, but it won’t be today.

St. Louis -4 over WASHINGTON
I was more than scared when the Dolphins were effing around in Washington last week and failing to cover for most of the game against the Redskins. But maybe the Dolphins looking like the Dolphins I feared they might be in 2015 was a blessing in disguise. Sure, everyone who picked them to cover and who picked them in their survivor pools had to sweat out the win, but their seven-point win helped make this week’s line lower against the impressive Rams defense. So thank you, Dolphins for doing just enough to win to make Week 2 easier. I know that why’s you underperformed so greatly and not because you’re once again going to define “average NFL team” this season.

NEW YORK GIANTS -1.5 over Atlanta
Can you have a must-win game in Week 2? That’s a question I have written about the Giants for the now the fifth straight season. After Sunday night’s disaster that left me speechless and wondering if I even wanted to be a part of the 2015 NFL season or if I ever wanted to watch football again, I actually got over Tom Coughlin’s clock management and Eli Manning’s score management fairly fast. Sure, I spun the situation into the fact that the Giants were supposed to lose in Dallas anyway and that they just need to split the season series with the Cowboys, so they can beat them at MetLife in October, but that’s what fans of losing teams do: they make excuses. I don’t want to have to make any excuses this week. The Falcons outside of the Georgia Dome are very much like the Saints outside of the Superdome, and with the Redskins on Thursday Night Football in Week 3, I should be writing in Week 4 about the 2-1 Giants.

Baltimore -6.5 over OAKLAND
The Ravens went to Denver as 5-point underdogs and lost 19-13 despite Joe Flacco throwing for 117 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions. The Raiders, meanwhile, lost Derek Carr for most of their game against the Bengals and lost 33-13. There’s just no way I can pick the Raiders here after picking them last week and feel even the slightest bit confident that they will cover against the Ravens. There’s no way at all.

Miami -6.5 over JACKSONVILLE
I made the mistake of backing the Jaguars in Week 1 and thinking they might actually turn it around this season. They still might since there are 15 games left, but they also put up nine points at home against the Panthers, and I’m just not ready to continue to have confidence in the Jaguars. I’d much rather back the overhyped and definitely-going-to-underachieve Dolphins.

Dallas +5.5 over PHILADELPHIA
The best-case scenario for this game is that both teams beat the crap out of each and tie. If the Cowboys win, they will be 2-0 and 2-0 in the division. If the Eagles win, they will be 1-1 and so will the Cowboys, and if the Giants win, the whole division (not including the Redskins since they don’t count) will be 1-1. Having everyone be 1-1 is better for the Giants’ playoff chances to have the entire NFC East be clustered. I will be rooting for the Eagles, but knowing these teams and NFC East games as a whole, it will be decided by three or less.

GREEN BAY -3.5 over Seattle
I was in Seattle when these two teams played in the NFC Championship Game and I wanted the Seahawks to win because I thought they posed a bigger threat to the Patriots in the Super Bowl. I was right until Pete Carroll went and ruined the Super Bowl and the entire offseason. Eff, Seattle and eff the 12s. Sunday, I’m a Cheesehead.

New York Jets +7 over INDIANAPOLIS
It’s nice that once again the Jets got a cupcake game in Week 1 and their fans think the Jets are back and the King of New York and all that. It’s even nicer that they have to go on the road to Indianapolis and face the Colts, who were embarrassed last week and will be looking to go out of their way to erase their awful offensive performance in Buffalo. I think the Jets will cover, but it’s more important to me that the Colts win.

Last week: 9-6-1

Blogs • Email Exchanges • Yankees

Sep 11, 2015

A Seven-Game Yankees-Blue Jays Series for the Division

The Yankees and Blue Jays are separated by 1 1/2 games and over the last 25 games the two teams play each other seven times. One team will win the AL East and the other will play in the one-game playoff.

The Yankees and Blue Jays are separated by 1 1/2 games in the standings and over the last 24 games of the season, the two teams play each other seven times. One team will win the AL East and the other will play in the one-game playoff.

With the Yankees and Blue Jays meeting for a crucial four-game series, Tom Dakers of Bluebird Banter joined me to talk about the Blue Jays’ run since the trade deadline, Josh Donaldson’s incredible MVP campaign, R.A. Dickey’s unbeaten streak, the return of Marcus Stroman and if the Blue Jays will win the East.

Keefe: The last time we talked the Yankees were 62-51 and the Blue Jays were 64-52. I said the two teams were set to begin a seven-week battle for the AL East with the loser going to the one-game playoff. Since then, the Yankees have gone 15-10 and the Blue Jays have gone 15-8.

Over their last 12 games, the Yankees have gone 8-4. Unfortunately, the Blue Jays have also gone 8-4, so the Yankees haven’t made up a single game and still trail the Blue Jays by one game in the loss column.
I understand the Blue Jays are a magical run and have rarely lost since the trade deadline, but this is out of control. Every time I check the Blue Jays score I expect to see them having scored 10 runs and am shocked when they don’t.

Do you believe this run is happening?

Dakers: It has been a fun month and a half. The Jays have been good all season, but their record has been far short of their Pythagorean Record all season, so we hoped that, at some point they, there would be a correction. Well, we got it.

When you look at the team, you do wonder if they will ever lose again, but no matter how good the team, slumps happen. The nice part is, no one guy has to carry the team. In the past, if Bautista and Encarnacion were to slump, we wouldn’t win. Now Donaldson or Tulowitzki or even Chris Colabello can take up the slack.

Adding Price, Tulowitzki, Revere, Hawkins and Lowe added some life to the team, made the team think that they can win every game and well as filling the weak spots on the team. Jose Reyes’ defense was not good enough, he showed little range and had this ability to make an error at the worst possible moment. Tulowitzki’s bat hasn’t been what we hoped, but it’s nice to have a shortstop with real range. And Ben Revere is much better defensively than Chris Colabello in left. David Price gives us the Ace we really needed. And adding Lowe and Hawkins to the pen has given us a nice deep pen.

Keefe: Does Josh Donaldson ever get out? He is hitting .307/.374/.592 this season with 37 home runs and 115 RBIs, but since July 29, he’s hitting .363/.434/.747 with 13 home runs and 47 RBIs in 38 games. He’s slugging .747! That’s insane. What’s even more insane is he is making $4.3 million this season. Stephen Drew is making $5 million.

I have been tweeting at Donaldson and Jose Bautista to remind them the bars in New York City stay open until a 4 a.m. in hopes that they will go on a bender this weekend and not perform well against the Yankees. Maybe they will listen.

What are you going to send Billy Beane to thank him for trading Donaldson to the Blue Jays?

Dakers: He can have my first born, or my right arm or really anything he wants. I have no idea what Beane was thinking. When you have one of the best players in the game, who is still under team control for several more seasons, you don’t trade him. I’ve always thought the way to build a team is to find those guys who are among the best in the game and build around them.

I liked Brett Lawrie, good player, Canadian, fun to watch on defense, but he’ll never be close to as good as Josh. The pitchers we gave up don’t look to be much better than back of the rotation types, so I really don’t understand where Beane thought he was getting fair value for Donaldson.

Add in that Donaldson seem to have the equal intensity to Jose Bautista (something I didn’t think was possible) he’s really helped give the team a “nothing short of winning is acceptable” attitude.

Keefe: The last time R.A. Dickey lost was on July 9 despite giving up two earned runs in seven innings. Since then he is 7-0 with a 2.68 ERA in 11 starts and the Blue Jays are 10-1 in those starts.
It seems like Dickey is finally pitching like the ace the Blue Jays thought he would be even though he no longer needs to be that guy with David Price in the rotation.

Are you impressed with R.A. Dickey this season?

Dakers: He’s had an up and down time of it. In his wins, he’s had an ERA of 2.39, in his losses his ERA is over 6. He seems to be very good or very bad, and there is little in between. He’s followed the same pattern in each of his 3 seasons as a Blue Jay, a poor first half (this year 3-10 with a 4.87 ERA and a good second half (7-0 with a 2.68 ERA).

I came into the season thinking that there was no way the Jays pick up his $12 million option for next season, figuring that, at 41, he’ll be reaching the age that even knuckleball pitchers have a hard time providing value. But if he continues to pitch like this, and we have a bit of a playoff run, they might prove me wrong.

Keefe: Of course Marcus Stroman is coming back to the Blue Jays’ rotation in time to face the Yankees. Why wouldn’t he?

What do you expect out of Stroman?

Dakers: I’m cautiously hopeful. I really didn’t expect him back this yeah but Stroman is someone you should never bet against. He’s got such a strong work ethic. I do imagine he could have a couple of rough starts, he’s only had two rehab starts (well in real games, he had some simulated games too), one very good, one not so good. In a perfect world, I’d like to see him get a couple more rehab starts, but then the minor league seasons are ending (and there isn’t all that much major league season left) so he gets thrown out there quicker than we would like.

The good news is that it was a knee injury, so he kept his throwing arm in shape all along. He’s been throwing hard in this rehab starts. I think, by playoff time, he’ll be the Marcus Stroman we saw last season. It is just a question of how quickly he gets there.

Keefe: If the Blue Jays win the AL East, what is your ALDS rotation?

For me it would be Price, Dickey, hopefully Stroman and Buehrle. If Stroman doesn’t prove ready, then move Buehrle up and put Marco Estrada in the 4-spot.

Keefe: And if they have to play in the one-game playoff, I’m guessing you’re going with David Price. But let’s say he’s unavailable, who do you turn to?

Dakers: If Dickey keeps pitching the way he is right now, it would have to be him. He’s averaged over 7 innings a start, his last three times out there, and has an ERA of just 2.08. But then, Marcus Stroman has a month to show that he’s as good as last year, if he can do that, it the job might be his.

But, I think he idea of trading for Price as to have him make a one-game playoff start. I’d hope they will make sure that he is ready for the game.

Author: Neil Keefe

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