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Author: Neil Keefe

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Yankees World Series Game 2 Thoughts: Aaron Judge Is New ‘Mr. May’

The Yankees lost Game 2 of the World Series 4-2 and head back home down 2-0 in the series. Here are 10 thoughts.

1. It’s a good thing Aaron Boone didn’t go back to Luke Weaver in the 10th inning of Game 1 of the World Series, considering he wasn’t needed in Game 2. The decision to not use Weaver after the righty went five up and five down on just 19 pitches is the single biggest reason the World Series isn’t going back to New York tied at 1.

2. The second biggest reason is Aaron Judge. Judge was atrocious once again in Game 2, as he continues to hit like a 6-foot-7 version of Anthony Volpe. After going 1-for-5 with three strikeouts in Game 1, Judge followed it up with a nice 0-for-4 with three more strikeouts. Back-to-back hat tricks from the AL MVP in the World Series with the championship on the line — the same championship he relentlessly refers to needing to win.

3. Judge certainly has a funny way of showing how important winning is to him. His strikeout rate and chase rates are through the roof in October compared to March through September. If Giancarlo Stanton is the second coming of Mr. October then Judge is the second coming of Mr. May. When Joe Davis exclaimed, “Gibby, meet Freddie!” following Freddie Freeman’s walk-off grand slam, the image of Judge standing next to Dave Winfield on the Dodger Stadium field before Game 2 made me think, “Winnie, meet Judgey!”

4. Before Game 2, I wrote about how big of a problem Judge has been and he went out and added to his problematic resume. After breaking the AL home run record with 62 in 2022, he went 1-for-16 with a single in the ALCS. After producing one of the greatest offensive seasons in the history of baseball this season, he’s 1-for-9 with six strikeouts in the World Series (after going 5-for-31 with 13 strikeouts in the ALDS and ALCS).

This is a legacy series for Judge. He can’t be considered among the all-time Yankees greats without a championship. It would be different if he were playing with the putrid players Don Mattingly was surrounded with during his career, but Judge has been surrounded by elite talent, superstars and one of the Top 3 payrolls in the league in his career. It would be different if he were having an all-time postseason and the rest of the lineup was doing nothing, but he’s the one doing nothing. He is the one holding the Yankees back.

5. You would think this can’t possibly continue, but I thought that during the ALDS and it continued in the ALCS. After the Yankees won the pennant, I thought it wouldn’t continue in the World Series but it has. Judge isn’t just missing pitches or hitting into bad luck. He’s taking fastballs down the middle and swinging at curveballs in the dirt and splitters on the verge of hitting him. He’s a mess. It’s hard to believe a switch can just be turned on and he can be the real version of himself in Game 3 after having not been that version of himself in a month now.

6. If you remove the idiotic decisions from Boone in Game 1, the Yankees were an out away from winning that game. Despite the offense producing one hit over the first eight innings of Game 2, they were a base hit away from tying the game in the ninth and an extra-base hit away from taking the lead. That’s how close these games have been and Judge has been the difference. The Dodgers are doing everything they can to not let Juan Soto and Giancarlo Stanton beat them since no one else is capable of it, and Soto and Stanton are nearly beating them. If Judge were his regular-season self right now, the Yankees may be heading home up 2-0 in the series. Instead their backs are against the wall and in desperate need of a win in Game 3.

7. Judge and the offense as a whole aren’t entirely to blame for the Game 2 loss. Carlos Rodon wasn’t any good, of course, because Rodon isn’t very good. Another regular-season hero, Rodon was praised for pitching to 3.96 ERA this year while making roughly $800,000 per start. No one shuts down a team with nothing to play midseason while racking up double-digit strikeouts like Rodon, the way no one will smash five home runs in five games against teams playing out the string like Judge. After Rodon’s Game 2 stinker, he now has a 5.60 ERA in four starts this October and a 6.64 ERA for his postseason career. The Royals, Guardians and Dodgers have an .820 OPS against him in the postseason. He may have only walked one in 17 2/3 innings, but that doesn’t matter when you’re giving up home runs at the rate Rodon has in the playoffs. If the Yankees are going to come back and win the series, Rodon will get another start. I wouldn’t expect a different kind of performance.

8. Going into the series I wrote the only advantage the Dodgers had over the Yankees was at 5 through 9 in the lineup and that has held true. While the Dodgers are getting production from career league-average- and below-league-average hitters, the Yankees continue to not. A player like Tommy Edman is the definition of league average for his career with a 100 OPS+, and yet he won NLCS MVP against the Mets, and in the World Series, he’s 4-for-8 with two doubles and a home run and some great infield defense. Meanwhile, the Yankees’ career league-average- and below-league-average hitters all suck whether it’s Volpe, Alex Verdugo or Austin Wells. There’s no belief any of them will ever come through in a big moment, and that was never more true than when Volpe struck out in the ninth inning in Game 2. Every time you think Volpe has figured it out and is about to emerge as a star he reminds you why he has an 83 OPS+ in 1,290 career plate appearances.

9. The first inning of Game 3 is the most important inning of Clarke Schmidt’s life. Yankee Stadium is going to be loud. It’s going to be raucous. It’s going to be full of believers who think this series isn’t over (including yours truly). He has to put up a zero. He can’t let Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Teoscar Hernandes get to him. Not in the first inning. If they get to him later, so be it. He has to give the bats a chance to get on the board first. He has to give the crowd a reason to stay loud and stay involved. He can’t go out and have a Rodon-like inning and allow a crooked number. Don’t allow any number.

10. I don’t want to hear about what the Yankees did in 1996 when trailing 2-0 or how the 2001 Yankees returned home down 2-0 before winning three straight in the Bronx. Unless youthful and prime and peak Derek Jeter, Bernie Williams, Paul O’Neill, Jorge Posada, Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettitte are going to be playing and pitching for the Yankees over the next few nights, it’s meaningless. This Yankees group has never done anything. They have never won anything. This is their first time in the World Series and they have yet to win a game in it. Until they do it, there should be no comparisons to the dynastic teams and players that went to the World Series in six of eight years and won four of them. Let’s start with one win and that win has to come in Game 3. Otherwise, I hope Boone still has the 2004 ALCS highlights video lying around that he used to motivate his team in the 2022 ALCS when they were down 3-0.

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Yankees Thoughts: The Aarons Are a Postseason Problem

The Yankees are down 1-0 in the World Series and their manager and captain are why. Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.

1. Cortes delivers …

Freeman hits a ball to right field …

SHE IS GONE! …

GIBBY, MEET FREDDIE! … GAME 1 OF THE WORLD SERIES!

For many Yankees fans, they probably only heard Joe Davis’ call of Freddie Freeman’s walk-off grand slam once. They probably heard it in real time, turned off the TV and went to bed. Not me. I heard it a second time. And a third time and fourth time. I heard it for nearly an hour after the game had ended from the other room as my wife — a Dodgers fan — watched the historic moment on an endless loop.

I’ll never get over Game 1. I’ll never get over the litany of bad decisions that started with Gerrit Cole being removed in the seventh inning and ended with Nestor Cortes being asked to get Shoehei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman out.

2. When these Yankees lose, they don’t just lose. They lose in the excruciating, heartbreaking, kick-you-in-the-nuts-then-punch-you-in-the-face-when-you-go-to-grab-your-nuts fashion. They don’t lose games 7-2 or 5-0. They lose games like Game 1 of the World Series or Game 4 of the ALCS, which is how these Yankees always lose in the playoffs. The Dodgers lost two games to the Padres by scores of 10-2 and 6-5. They lost two games to the Mets by scores of 7-3 and 8-0. Normal, easy-to-accept losses. The Yankees? They carry high-’90s win probabilities into the final inning and come within an out or a strike of a winning before suffering an unbelievable loss.

Game 1 didn’t have to be an unbelievable loss. It should have been a statement win, letting the Dodgers know they aren’t playing the Padres or Mets anymore. Instead, the Dodgers let the Yankees know they aren’t playing the AL Central anymore. (The Yankees have not won a postseason series against a team outside of the AL Central since the 2012 ALDS against Baltimore.) The game was a perfect summarization of the Aarons era with Aaron Boone managing his team to a loss and Aaron Judge doing absolutely nothing at at the plate to prevent it.

3. Boone desperately wants to be known as some kind of baseball genius or managerial savant. It’s why he interjects himself into games in the oddest ways, even when he doesn’t have to. His father — a 19-year veteran, World Series champion and seven-time Gold Glove winner — and brother — a 14-year veteran, four-time Gold Glove winner and two-time Silver Slugger winner who led the league in RBIs one season — had careers that overshadowed Boone’s 92 OPS+ in the majors. (Maybe that’s why he’s so infatuated with giving endless chances to below-league-average hitters he manages.) Managing the Yankees was going to be his way of stepping of that shadow.

Boone was selected as the manager of the most prestigious organization in major sports following the young, exciting core coming within a win of the World Series despite having no managerial or coaching experience at any level. His lack of experience showed in his first spring training when he called on Dellin Betances to enter a game even though Betances had yet to warm up. The umpiring crew gave him a mulligan and let Betances warm up anyway. In the first series of his first regular season in Toronto, he managed the Yankees to a late-inning loss with his bullpen choices and from that moment on he has never evolved.

4. His longing to be the smartest baseball mind in a major-league dugout is why he makes the moves he makes. He didn’t need to remove Cole from the game. Not after 88 pitches. He didn’t need to show the Dodgers all of the Yankees’ elite relievers in Game 1 of the series. He didn’t need to use Clay Holmes in relief of Cole. He didn’t need to try to steal outs with Tommy Kahnle. He didn’t need to pinch run Jasson Dominguez for Gleyber Torres with two outs, but he wanted Judge to single in Dominguez, so talking heads would praise him for the awareness to use Dominguez in that spot. He didn’t need to go to Jake Cousins in relief of Luke Weaver with the Yankees three outs from a win in the 10th and Weaver having thrown only 19 pitches. He didn’t need to use Cortes over Tim Hill, but he wanted to try to turn one of his starters into a shutdown postseason reliever like his friend, rival and much more heralded and respected Alex Cora did in 2018.

5. Boone had his worst night as Yankees manager in the biggest game he has ever managed. It was the type of managerial performance I have feared from him for seven years. It was a performance he foreshadowed to us all over the last seven years.

“I just like the matchup,” Boone said of using Cortes in the 10th. “The reality is, Cortes has been throwing the ball really well the last few weeks as he’s gotten ready for this.”

What are you talking about? What reality? Cortes facing Jahmai Jones in live batting practice in an empty Yankee Stadium isn’t reality. That’s a controlled environment. Reality is pitching in Game 1 of the World Series with a former MVP at the plate and the bases loaded.

“I knew with one out there, it would be tough to double up Shohei if Tim Hill gets him on the ground,” Boone said. “Then Mookie behind him is a tough spot matchup there. So I felt convicted with Nestor in that spot.”

Whenever Boone lays out the thought process he uses to make decisions, we all get a look inside the brain of a confused idiot. If Hill gets Ohtani on the ground, he doesn’t need a double play. There were runners on first and second with one out. Ohtani goes on the ground and there are two outs. Cortes didn’t face Betts, so Hill wouldn’t have either. If the bases are loaded and Hill gets Freeman on the ground, guess what? Game over.

6. I don’t blame Cortes for the missed location to Freeman. Once the bases were intentionally loaded, he had to throw strikes. Freeman knew this and was ready for a fastball in the zone. Even if Cortes hits his intended location, Freeman likely still gets a hit and ends the game. It’s Freddie Fucking Freeman, not Josh Naylor. But no, it’s not Cortes’ fault. He last pitched in a game on September 18. He didn’t put himself on the World Series roster after missing five weeks and being on the brink of Tommy John surgery and he didn’t put himself in that spot.

7. Boone doesn’t believe the Yankees’ Game 1 loss is on him. In his mind he pressed all of the right buttons and his players didn’t perform. The idea of putting your players in the best possible position to succeed isn’t a concept Boone comprehends. The ironic part about Boone is that he is always managing with tomorrow on mind. It’s why he pulled Weaver after going five up and five down on 19 pitches, rather than using Weaver in the 10th and securing a win. But while Boone always manages for tomorrow, he never manages a game thinking the game may go to extra innings, and when it does the Yankees are ill-equipped to win. Do you think it’s just a coincidence the Yankees have lost every extra-inning game in the postseason with Boone as manager?

The bigger the game, the worse Boone is at his job. Just like his superstar, $40-million-per-year MVP.

8. Giancarlo Stanton is everything that Judge isn’t. He’s a big-game performer who saves his best for the playoffs and has become the second coming of Mr. October. Judge is Mr. May. No one destroys back-of-the-rotation starters and middle relievers like Judge does in the spring and summer.

Everyone thought Judge had moved past his postseason failures when he hit the home run off Emmanuel Clase in Game 3 of the ALCS. But since his home run off Clase (that came in the Yankees’ only loss of that series), Judge is 2-for-14 with a pair of singles and 10 strikeouts. He has struck out 16 times in 36 at-bats this October.

If Judge just sucked and wasn’t abysmal, the Yankees’ offense wouldn’t be in such a dire position. But he has been impossibly bad, culminating in his three-strikeout performance in Game 1 of the World Series, a game in which he looked blindfolded swinging at Jack Flaherty breaking balls. Late on fastballs and unable to hit curveballs. That’s Mr. May.

9. Judge’s absence has turned the Yankees into a two-batter lineup. Opposing pitchers can fear Juan Soto and Stanton and no one else. The threat of slug in the lineup dies after Stanton bats. Sure, Jazz Chisholm and Austin Wells each hit solo home runs in this postseason, but no one is threatened by the idea of them doing that consistently. Anthony Rizzo is a slap singles hitter and Anthony Volpe is the same. Alex Verdugo has trouble getting the ball in the air past infielders, so the thought of him hitting one over the fence is far-fetched. When Wells makes contact it’s a miracle, so no one is expecting him to drive the ball with any authority. When the bat gets taken out of Soto’s hands through an intentional walk and Stanton’s at-bat doesn’t end with a home run, the Yankees don’t score. Unless the Dodgers are going to start walking in runs like the Royals did or throwing wild pitches and dropping popups like the Guardians, the Yankees are going to have a tough time scoring without Judge being himself.

10. At this point, I have no expectation he will be himself. The last time he looked like himself was exactly a month ago today when he finished a streak of five straight games with a home run at the end of September. Since the calendar turned to October he has performed his annual disappearing act while the two batters he is sandwiched between in the lineup have carried him and the team. The Dodgers are too good to let Soto and Stanton alone carry the Yankees to another series win.

The narrative after the ALDS was that the Yankees were able to advance without Judge hitting, so just wait until he starts hitting! Then the ALCS came and he went 3-for-18 with eight strikeouts and the narrative remained the same: The Yankees were able to advance to the World Series without Judge hitting, so just wait until he starts hitting! Well, the World Series is here. It’s a game in and Judge looked worse at the plate than he did at any other time in the playoffs. There are some star players who can’t handle the postseason with any consistency, and to this point in his career, Judge is one of them.

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Yankees World Series Game 1 Thoughts: Aaron Boone Takes the Loss

The Yankees blew two different late one-run leads and lost Game 1 of the World Series to the Dodgers 6-3 in 10 innings. Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.

1. Eighty-eighty pitches. That’s how many pitches Gerrit Cole had thrown in Game 1 of the World Series when Aaron Boone emerged from the Yankees dugout for a slow walk to the mound.

Cole had mostly dominated the Dodgers’ offense through six innings, allowing one run on four hits with that one run coming as the result of a misplayed fly ball in right field by Juan Soto. It was the seventh inning now, and after Teoscar Hernandez won his eight-pitch battle against Cole with a line-drive single, Boone decided to pull the plug on his ace’s night.

It’s not as if Boone was opting to replace Cole with Tommy Kahnle or Luke Weaver. He was going to go with Clay Holmes who has spent the last seven months doing everything he can on the mound to say STOP PITCHING ME IN HIGH-LEVERAGE SITUATIONS! Boone ignored all of the warnings during the regular season and has continued to ignore them in the postseason. Despite removing Holmes from the closer role during the regular season and despite Holmes allowing a walk-off loss to the Guardians in the ALCS, it hasn’t mattered. There’s no level of disappointment Holmes can provide that will make Boone stop using him in big spots.

2. For Boone, the decision to turn to Holmes in the seventh inning was his second poor decision of the night following the choice to not run Gleyber Torres on a 3-2 count with Juan Soto up in the third inning. But the move to go to Holmes was the move that sent the Yankees on a downward spiral to their eventual 6-3 walk-off loss.

Holmes immediately proved to be a disaster. His first pitch was in the dirt, his second pitch was high and inside and his third pitch drilled Max Muncy in the foot. Boone had brought Holmes in specifically to induce a ground ball in an effort to get a double play, and instead, Holmes pushed his inherited runner into scoring position.

Fortunately, for Boone, his counterpart, Dave Roberts, is every bit as bad at managing as Boone is, and he had Kike Hernandez give himself up with a sacrifice bunt. A free out for a pitcher who can’t handle pressure in the most pressurized situation of his career. After Holmes got a popup, he had faced the required three batters and was removed from the game for Tommy Kahnle. The Yankees would get out of the inning unscathed, but it came at a cost. Boone had pulled his ace and burned through two relievers in a single inning.

3. I wanted Boone to use Cole for at least the seventh and then a well-rested Luke Weaver for the eighth and ninth. Boone still had the option to use Weaver for six outs and with a one-run lead in the eighth, it made sense to. He declined, choosing to stick with Kahnle in the eighth.

Kahnle had thrown 48 straight changeups entering Game 1 and stayed with the pitch to get the last out of the seventh and the first out of the eighth. It’s one thing to throw the same pitch that many times in a row to the Royals and Guardians and the bottom of the Dodgers’ order, but not to the best hitter in the world. To think you’re going to retire Ohtani with a single pitch like you’re Mariano Rivera is irresponsible, but Kahnle and Austin Wells tried anyway. Ohtani banged a double off the wall.

Soto threw the ball into second and Torres failed to get in front of the short hop and the ball trickled to the middle of the infield as Ohtani raced to third to give the Dodgers a runner on third with one out. Then Boone went to Weaver, but it was too late, as a Mookie Betts sacrifice fly tied the game. Not even one full game into the World Series and the combination of sloppy play by the Yankees’ defense and the attempt to steal outs by the Yankees manager had given the Dodgers both of their runs.

4. Boone had been willing to use Holmes in the seventh, but not until there was a runner on. He was willing to go to Weaver in the eighth, but not until the tying run was at third with one out. Giving relievers clean innings isn’t something Boone is capable of. And after watching the way he managed in the biggest game of his career, it’s terrifying to see what he’s capable of on baseball’s grandest stage.

Weaver got the final two outs of the eighth and pitched the ninth: five up, five down for the Yankees’ best reliever, who should have been in to start the eighth, and the Yankees wouldn’t be trailing in the series right now.

5. The Yankees managed to take the lead in the 10th after Jazz Chisholm singled, stole second and third and scored on an Anthony Volpe ground ball. Boone had another chance to redeem himself by sending Weaver back out for the 10th. He had only thrown 19 pitches to get five outs and hadn’t pitched in six days. He was more than rested. Boone declined, choosing to go with Jake Cousins.

Cousins retired Will Smith to begin the 10th, but with the Yankees two outs away from a Game 1 win, Cousins inexplicably walked the 8-hitter Gavin Lux. Tommy Edman followed with a ground ball to second that Oswaldo Cabrera dove for, but couldn’t come up with. It’s a ball that Torres would have handled had he been at second, but he was removed from the game in the ninth for a pinch runner even though there had been two outs in that inning. Another Boone gem.

6. In the pivotal Game 3 of the 2018 ALDS, Boone’s starting pitcher didn’t know the start time of the game. The next night, facing elimination, he let his starting pitcher face the entire Red Sox’ lineup a second time because he said he liked the matchup of his starter against their No. 9 hitter. In the 2019 ALCS, with a 1-0 series lead, he let J.A. Happ pitch in relief until the Astros finally walked him off. In Game 2 of the 2020 ALDS, he tried to outsmart Kevin Cash by using Deivi Garcia as a one-out opener before going to Happ. After the wild-card game loss in 2021, he said “The league has closed the gap” on his team, a team that had never won anything. In Game 1 of the 2022 ALCS, he opted to not go with his best relievers in the sixth inning of a tie game in an eventual loss, and when his team lost again the next night, he blamed the Houston roof being open as the reason. Down 3-0 in that ALCS he used video from the 2004 ALCS as motivation for his players, players who were members of the same franchise that endured that historic loss in the 2004 ALCS. In 2023, he spent the summer telling everyone how “capable the guys in the room are” as they posted the franchise’s worst record in three decades and missed the playoffs. Now in Game 1 of the 2024 World Series, in the biggest game of his managerial career, he tried to steal outs in both the seventh and eighth innings.

Even with all of these “highlight” ill-advised choices and impossibly bad decisions over seven years and his shortcomings as a sound baseball mind despite being a third-generation major-leaguer, nothing he has done as Yankees manager will ever be as bad as what he would do next in Game 1.

7. After choosing to not pitch Weaver in the 10th, Boone’s decision to use Cousins had created a shitstorm. The Dodgers had the tying run on second and the winning run on first with Ohtani up. It was the perfect opportunity for the left-handed ground-ball specialist Tim Hill, who had dominated in the ALDS and ALCS. Boone declined, choosing to go with Nestor Cortes, who last pitched in a game on September 18, more than five weeks ago. Unless the Yankees come back to win the series, it will be the decision that defines Boone as a manager.

Cortes retied Ohtani when Alex Verdugo fell into the stands to make an outstanding catch in foul territory. With Betts due up, Boone called for an intentional walk to bring up the supposedly-hobbled Freddie Freeman. Cortes threw a first-pitch, 93-mph fastball down the middle and Freeman destroyed it for the first walk-off grand slam in World Series history.

A day ago, the Yankees were waiting on Cortes to say how he felt and recovered from throwing live batting practice before putting him on the World Series roster. He went from facing Cabrera and Austin Wells in a controlled environment to a couple of days later facing Ohtani and Freeman with a World Series game on the line, while admittedly being less than 100 percent, as the Yankees’ left-handed specialist sat on his thumb in the bullpen. It’s a move so egregious I’m still stunned by it hours later. After seven seasons of watching every move Boone has made I thought the possibility of being stunned by him no longer existed. I was wrong.

8. Boone is here to stay. The ALDS win locked it up and winning the pennant threw away the key. He will be here forever. The Yankees could get humiliated in the next three games and get swept out of the Fall Classic because of similar moves by him and he’s not going anywhere.

9. The Yankees lost a game in which they outhit and outwalked the Dodgers. They lost a game in which their ace started and gave them six-plus innings of one-run ball. They lost a game in which they used their best reliever for multiple innings. They lost. agame in which they got to the Dodgers starter and got to Dodgers bullpen early. They lost a game in which they had a one-run lead with five outs to go and then a one-run lead in extra innings with the bottom of the Dodgers’ lineup due up.

This doesn’t feel like a it’s-a-long-series loss or a just-win-one-game-on-the-road loss. This feels like a series-changing, series-defining loss. The Yankees had the opportunity to be up 1-0 in the series, needing to just play .500 baseball over the next six games to be champions. Instead, they wound up on the wrong end of a devastating defeat and now need to go 4-2 against the best team in baseball to be champions.

10. Game 1 wasn’t just one loss in a seven-game series. It was a demoralizing defeat. The kind of defeat that could end this series much quicker than the six- or seven-game series everyone seems to think it will be. That’s not me being dramatic as I can hear my wife from the other room replaying the Freeman grand slam over and over, that’s me being a realist.

There are no moral victories in postseason losses, especially in the World Series. There is nothing good and nothing positive to take away from Game 1. They lost. They let a winnable game slip away twice thanks to their sloppy play, the disappearing act from their MVP and unfathomable managerial decisions: the trio of issues that has always doomed this core.

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Yankees Boast All But One Advantage in World Series

Yes, anything can happen (that’s baseball, Suzyn), but the way these teams match up favors the Yankees, even if the oddsmakers don’t agree.

On Oct. 19, 2017, the 104-win Dodgers routed the Cubs 11-1 at Wrigley Field to win the NLCS in five games. The Dodgers’ offense chased Jose Quintana before he could get an out in the third inning, and Clayton Kershaw allowed just one run over six innings to send the Dodgers to the World Series for the first time in 29 years. That night, the Yankees were in Houston waiting to play Game 6 of the ALCS the next night.

A day earlier, Masahiro Tanaka had thrown seven shutout innings at Yankee Stadium and Tommy Kahnle pitched a scoreless eighth and ninth to blank the Astros 5-0 and give the Yankees a 3-2 series lead in the ALCS. With two chances to win one game in Houston, the Yankees went to sleep knowing if they did, they would set up a New York-Los Angeles World Series.

It didn’t happen. The Yankees scored one run over 18 innings between Games 6 and 7 and were eliminated. The Astros won the pennant and went on to win the World Series in seven games.

The 91-win, wild-card surprise Yankees weren’t necessarily supposed to play in that 2017 World Series. The 104-win Dodgers were. The Dodgers had made the playoffs in five straight seasons and had suffered heartbreak each time, losing two division series, two championship series and now a World Series. The Yankees had made the playoffs twice in five years, as a wild-card team both times.

The following year, the Yankees went down in the ALDS to the Red Sox, losing both Games 3 and 4 at home. In Game 3, their starting pitcher didn’t know the start time for the game as they suffered the worst home postseason loss in franchise history, and in Game 4, their manager showed his ineptitude, foreshadowing what was to come during his tenure. The Dodgers also went down that year to the Red Sox as Dave Roberts thought Kike Hernandez should be his 3-hitter and Ryan Madson should be his go-to, highest-leverage reliever.

In 2019, the Dodgers blew a 2-1 lead in the NLDS to Juan Soto and the Nationals, and not too long after, the Yankees went out in the ALCS to the Astros.

In the shortened season of 2020, the Yankees were eliminated in five games by the Rays, while the Dodgers finally reached the World Series, beating those same Rays in five games. The only issue was the Dodgers’ 60-game schedule was made up of games solely against the weak NL West and AL West without fans in stands and their World Series victory came at a neutral site in Texas. Playing only against the worst competition for two months and then playing the postseason in a controlled environment removed every obstacle that had befuddled the Dodgers during their era of disappointment. When things went back to normal the following October in 2021, they bowed out to the Braves in the NLCS. They were knocked out by the rival Padres in the NLDS in 2022 and were swept by the Diamondbacks in the NLDS 2023.

In 2021, the Yankees were the odds-on favorite to win the World Series. They met those odds by finishing fifth in the AL and third in their own division with their postseason lasting a single game. A year later they were trounced by the Astros in a four-game sweep in the ALCS, and in 2023, they posted the franchise’s worst record in 30 years, missing the postseason completely despite 40 percent of the league getting in.

Now after disappointing eras for both franchises in terms of championships, despite all of their regular-season wins, accolades and individual awards, the two teams are finally meeting in the World Series. The series we nearly got in 2017 has finally come to fruition.

It’s been a long time coming for both teams and for my household. My wife is from Los Angeles and since we met more than 12 years ago, my spring and summer nights have consisted of watching the Yankees at 7 p.m. and then watching the Dodgers at 10 p.m. Coming from a Dodgers season-ticket family, my wife’s love for the Dodgers is equal to mine for the Yankees. For many, this series is New York vs. Los Angeles, the East Coast against the West Coast, the city vs. the beach, Aaron Judge vs. Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Boone against Dave Roberts.

For me, it’s my wife and her family vs. me, and my family and me against her. I have always thought a Red Sox-Mets World Series during my adulthood would be my worst nightmare because one team would have to win, but the thought of losing to the Dodgers, personally, has displaced it. The idea of the Yankees finally reaching the World Series for the first time in 15 years only to lose is depressing enough. Add in if they lose, I will hear about it daily for eternity, and it’s a daunting thought. Fortunately, I don’t think they will.

Yes, anything can happen (that’s baseball, Suzyn), but the way these teams match up favors the Yankees, even if the oddsmakers don’t agree. The Dodgers are the slight favorite in the series because they hold the extra home game, but for as good as the Dodgers were at home (52-29), the Yankees were nearly as impressive on the road (50-31). The Yankees were better on the road than they were at home in the regular season, and this postseason they are 3-1 at home and 4-1 on the road.

The Dodgers don’t have a traditional rotation. In Games 1 and 2, they are scheduled to start Jack Flaherty (28 baserunners, 12 earned runs and only eight strikeouts in 15 1/3 innings this postseason) and Yoshinobu Yamamoto (has thrown more than 75 pitches in a game once since June 7). They would be thrilled if that duo can pitch 10 of 18 innings in those games. The only problem is one of the other Dodgers’ four starters in the series is their bullpen. When your best-case scenario plan is to get at least 12 outs from your bullpen each game a traditional starter starts and then needing the bullpen to get all 27 outs in “bullpen game” starts, it’s an unsustainable formula. (Ask Stephen Vogt.)

The Guardians just tried to beat the Yankees with a similar strategy. That strategy got the Guardians one win in five games, and that one miraculous win was the equivalent of the roulette wheel landing on green on back-to-back spins for Cleveland. The Guardians’ rotation pitched only 17 of the 45 innings in the ALCS. The more the Yankees saw the best bullpen in the majors, the more comfortable they got. When the series began, everyone raved about the “Four Horsemen” in the Cleveland bullpen. When the series ended, only one (Tim Herrin) of the “Horsemen” was left unscathed. The Yankees overwhelmed Emmnauel Clase on back-to-back nights. They stunned Cade Smith and got to Hunter Gaddis. The Dodgers’ bullpen will eventually suffer the same fate, especially with inferior arms to the Guardians.

The Yankees’ greatest advantages lies in their starting rotation. They will use four actual starting pitchers in the series, and it’s certainly not outlandish to say all four of their starters are better than anything the Dodgers will start. The Dodgers’ path to a series victory lies in the performance of Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon.

Cole represents the single-biggest advantage between the rosters. But for Yankees fans that have watched him pitch over the last five years, Cole in name and on paper is better than Cole in actuality. It’s hard to completely trust Cole because he has given Yankees fans a mixed bag of big-game and postseason starts since 2020 and Friday night’s Game 1 will be the biggest start of his career, surpassing Game 1 of the 2019 World Series since he’s still chasing a championship.

Rodon is similar in that at times he pitches like someone worthy of a $162 million contract and other times he pitches like the American Kei Igawa. You never really know what you’re going to get from inning to inning with Rodon. He could have electric, unhittable stuff one inning and unravel the following inning. Fortunately, he has fared well against the Dodgers 1-through-4 hitters in his career as Shohei Ohtani is 1-for-3, Mookie Betts is 1-for-19, Freddie Freeman is 1-for-7 and Teoscar Hernandez is 1-for-9.

On paper, the Dodgers’ advantages exist in their bullpen depth and the bottom half of their lineup. But because they are going to rely so heavily on their bullpen and give the Yankees frequent looks at the same arms, their bullpen advantage is negated. The bottom half of the lineup is still a problem.

The combination of Max Muncy, Will Smith, Kike Hernandez, Tommy Edman and Andy Pages is much deeper and more productive than the Yankees’ Anthony Rizzo, Jazz Chisholm, Anthony Volpe, Austin Wells and Alex Verdugo. It doesn’t have to be that way. If Chisholm could start hitting, Wells could hit like he did from late April to late August and Verdugo could put the ball in the air. But based on their most recent performances, the Dodgers have a substantial edge at 5 through 9. But that’s their only edge, including in the dugout.

There are very few instances and matchups in which the Yankees have the managerial edge, though this is one of them. Supporters of Boone love to cite his regular-season record as a way to prove his success in an attempt to disregard his postseason failures. The same holds true for Roberts. Roberts has been an even more successful regular-season manager than Boone and his postseason failures have been as magnified. As someone who watches every Yankees game and nearly every Dodgers game, Boone is a better manager than Roberts.

It’s possible Cole pitches as poorly in Game 1 as he did in Game 1 in the 2019 World Series. It won’t be surprising if Rodon lets his emotions get the best of him and he spirals out of control in Game 2. Maybe Clarke Schmidt and Luis Gil poop their pants on the mound under the bright lights in the Bronx in Games 3 and 4. It’s conceivable the offense could disappear and Tommy Kahnle and Luke Weaver could turn into Paul Quantrill and Tom Gordon. But for every worst-case scenario for the Yankees in this series, the Dodgers’ worst-case scenarios are more prominent and more likely.

I shouldn’t feel this confident about a matchup, let alone a World Series matchup against the team with the best record in the league and the franchise that has been the best in the league over the last decade. If injuries didn’t exist I wouldn’t be. If the Dodgers had Clayton Kershaw, Tyler Glasnow and Dustin May at their peak abilities, I would be fearful. If the Dodgers weren’t using mound visits to give Freeman breathers following plays he’s involved with because of his ankle, I would be worried. If the Dodgers weren’t going to try to win four of seven games with the same strategy (but with lesser talent) that just blew up in the Guardians, I would be nervous. If someone other than Roberts was in the other dugout being asked to deploy that strategy, I would be uneasy. The Dodgers still have the name, but they don’t have the roster they expected to reach the World Series with.

I have spent my entire life listening to John Sterling calling Yankees games, outside of the majority of this regular season during his retirement/hiatus. Now that he only has between four and seven games left in his storied career, I think it makes sense to heed his words of wisdom when calling for the Yankees to win this series: You can’t predict baseball. I hope he’s wrong and hope his final words behind the microphone are “Ballgame over! … World Series over … Yankees win! … Theeeeeeeeeeeee Yankees win!” If I’m right, they will be.

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Yankees Thoughts: World Series a Day Away

The Yankees have been off since their win in Cleveland on Saturday, but now they are only a day away from Game 1 of the World Series. Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.

1. It feels like it’s been a month since the Yankees last played, and with still one more day to go until Game 1 of the World Series, it feels like it will be another month until they play again.

When the Yankees last won the pennant, they clinched on Sunday night and Game 1 of the World Series was Wednesday. The Yankees will have had six full days off between eliminating the Guardians in Game 5 and playing the Dodgers in Game 1.

2. The only good thing to come of the extra time is that the baseball season is extended and the offseason is shortened. For teams that didn’t reach the postseason, this Sunday will already be four weeks since they last played. By the time the World Series ends, it will have been nearly five weeks since the majority of the league played. Thankfully, the Yankees are still playing.

3. The hype and anticipation for this series has been unlike any other World Series, and the ticket prices are there to prove it. You could pay for a year of college, put a down a payment on a house, buy a boat or … sit in the 100 level at Yankee Stadium for Game 3 of the World Series.

4. There has been talk of the possibility of Shohei Ohtani pitching in this series after missing the whole season as pitcher following Tommy John surgery. Please let this happen. Gleyber Torres, Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Rizzo and Alex Verdugo have all faced Ohtani and are 7-for-20 with two home runs and three doubles against him. That was against Ohtani as a star pitcher. Ohtani coming off surgery with no rehab outings? Again, please let this happen.

5. For now, I’m happy for Aaron Boone. At this moment, I even like him. With four more wins, I will even respect him! But if he tries to steal outs in this series, pinch runs for Stanton too early, bats a lefty between Judge and Stanton or gets Tim Mayza and/or Marcus Stroman up in the bullpen, all goodwill will be lost.

And with that let’s get to some questions from readers …

6. Nestor in place of Stroman? – John

It looks like Nestor Cortes will be on the World Series roster. I don’t know if it will be in place of Stroman, but it will be in place of someone.

Cortes last pitched six shutout innings in Seattle on September 18 before going on the injured list and looking like he will need Tommy John surgery.

“We have weighed the consequences that this can lead up to,” Cortes said, “but if I have a ring and then a year off of baseball, then so be it.”

Cortes threw 28 pitches in a simulated game at Yankee Stadium on Tuesday, facing Oswaldo Cabrera, Jose Trevino and Austin Wells to simulate the left-right-left lane he will likely be asked to face.

“Coming out of the bullpen, I’ll be restricted to throwing 20 to 30 pitches, so they’re not going to bring me in face three righties,” Cortes said. “I know those are the guys I’m going to face. It’s a tough task, but I know I’m able to do it.”

If he appears in a World Series game, it will be more than five weeks since he last pitched in a game. Even not at 100 percent, Cortes gives the Yankees another viable option in relief. It moves Stroman and Mayza (and Mark Leiter Jr.) down a peg on the option-to-pitch chart. Tim Hill will likely get the Ohtani-Mookie Betters-Freddie Freeman lane the first time a reliever is needed, but then Cortes would get it the second time?

7. Who has the advantage in this series? Is it the Yankees’ pitching health and bullpen? Or the Dodgers offense through this playoffs? – Manny

Give me the Yankees’ rotation health. If injuries didn’t exist, yes, the Dodgers would have the better team because it would mean they would have Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw and Dustin May as rotation options. Instead they are going to try to win it all using their bullpen more than any team has ever used their bullpen before.

The only way the Yankees’ advantage of an actual rotation becomes a disadvantage is if Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon suck, which is possible. Cole was bad in ALDS Game 1, very good in ALDS Game 4 and then bad again in ALCS Game 2. Rodon was bad in ALDS Game 2, very good gin ALDS Game 1 and then so-so in ALCS Game 5. The Yankees have played nine games this postseason and have gotten strong starts in two of the nine (ALDS Game 4 and ALCS Game 1). Outside of that, they haven’t received a single quality start and getting their starters to get outs in the fifth inning has seemed like the equivalent of throwing complete games.

The Dodgers are going to be looking for their bullpen to get at least 15 outs in games when they use a traditional starter and then all 27 outs during bullpen games. The Yankees will see their relievers multiple times in a short amount of time. The Yankees just destroyed the Guardians’ “Four Horsemen” in the ALCS and they will do the same to the Dodgers’ relievers after multiple looks as well.

If Cole and Rodon pitch to the best of their abilities, the Yankees will win it all.

8. What’s your confidence level (1-10 scale) in this World Series matchup? – Osvaldo

My wife is from Los Angeles. Her family are Dodgers season ticket holders. She has never seen the Dodgers win a World Series in a non-shortened season, not held at a neutral site in a season in which they only had to play the NL West and AL West without fans in the stands. She can’t see them do it now. It’s imperative the Yankees win this series for their own history and the legacies of their managers and star players and to end their championship drought. But for me personally, it’s imperative for my own well-being.

This morning I asked my wife the same question of on a scale of 1-10 how confident she is about the World Series. She responded, “7.5.” It was higher than I thought it would be, and it was higher than any Dodgers fan should be. I’m a 9. Yes, a 9. I’m extremely confident about this series. Too confident.

The Dodgers have a good team, but this is probably the worst roster they have had during Dave Roberts’ tenure. Their rotation is in shambles. Freddie Freeman is playing on one leg. Sure, they have Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Teoscar Hernandez, but I’m not scared of Max Muncy, Will Smith (who is having a miserable postseason), Tommy Edman and Kike Hernandez or Andy Pages and Chris Taylor. The Yankees just ripped out the hearts and destroyed the confidence of Emmanuel Clase, Hunter Gaddis and Cade Smith, do you think I’m going to be up at night worrying about Michael Kopech, Blake Treinen, Ryan Brasier or Anthony Banda, who faced 10 batters as a Yankee two years ago and eight of them reached base (0.2 IP, 2 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 5 BB, 6 K, 1 HBP, 1 WP).

The Yankees can lose this series. That’s baseball, Suzyn. But I would be surprised if they did. They are the better team. They have an actual rotation. They have actual starting pitchers. They have the better 1-2 punch. They have Playoff Stanton. And there are only a few matchups in the league where this holds true, but the Yankees even have the managerial advantage.

9. Is it time to give Cabrera a shot in place of Jazz? Maybe give Jazz another game or two and if he doesn’t produce, try Oswaldo? – John

There’s a better chance John (who asked this question) will be given playing time over Jazz Chisholm than Cabrera.

The Yankees had endless opportunities this season to make Cabrera a starter in place of injured players and they never did, despite him hitting whenever he played. He did an outstanding job at first base in the ALDS, and even still, they sat him at time for Jon Berti and then sat him entirely for Rizzo in the ALCS. The Yankees seem to think he’s most valuable as a bench player, who can be inserted into the lineup as pinch runner or pinch hitter or defensive replacement.

As for Chisholm, he can’t suck as bad as he did in the ALDS and ALCS in the World Series. When he’s right, he can be a star, but he hasn’t looked right in the postseason. For someone who called the Royals “lucky” for winning Game 2 of the ALDS and then said the Yankees are going to win the World Series during the ALCS, he sure hasn’t done anything to help them. Chisholm is 5-for-34 with 11 strikeouts in the postseason. He’s going to continue to hit in the middle of the order, so it’s time he started hitting like someone who hits in the middle of the order.

10. Do you think the Yankees winning the World Series would have any influence at all on Soto staying with the Yankees, and/or the Yankees’ eagerness to keep him? Or do you feel winning the World Series might make Hal & Cash feel that they’d now have some currency with the fans & could let Soto walk, which I hope like hell wouldn’t be the case.  – Rich

With each win in October, the Yankees have guaranteed themselves another game of Soto being a Yankee. Now we’re at the point where we have somewhere between four and seven games guaranteed with Soto. It’s depressing to think about, but it’s hard not to think about. I think about it each time he comes to the plate, as I have for each of his plate appearances this season. I never wanted to take his being a Yankee for granted.

In terms of Soto re-signing with the Yankees, I don’t think it would have mattered if they finished in last place or missed the playoffs or lost to the Royals or were eliminated by the Guardians, and I don’t think it matters if they win or lose the World Series. Soto is going to the highest bidder whether it’s the Yankees or Mets or Giants or Mariners or Angels or anyone else.

Yankees fans seem to think there’s no way Soto will sign elsewhere. Mets fans seem to think there’s no way Steve Cohen will be outbid for him. I think there’s a number Hal Steinbrenner won’t exceed for Soto, even with the absurd amount of money coming off the Yankees’ books following this season. If the Yankees don’t win the World Series and Steinbrenner is outbid, he can say, “Well, we couldn’t win with Soto.” If the Yankees win the World Series, he would justify not re-signing him by believing he got a championship out of him, somewhere between six and seven extra games at the Stadium, postseason revenue from TV, merchandise and concessions and thinking he will have a grace period with fans now that the championship drought is over.

The Yankees make more money than any of the other 29 teams, and yet, they are middle of the pack in terms of payroll to revenue ratio. Don’t ever believe for one second the Yankees can’t afford to pay Soto whatever the asking price ends up being. There’s no market smaller than San Diego and in the last six years years, the Padres gave $340 million to Fernando Tatis, $300 million to Manny Machado, $100 million to Jose Musgrove, traded for Yu Darvish’s $21 million average annual salary and tried to give Trea Turner $342 million, and Judge $400 million after 2022 and then gave Xander Bogaerts for $280 million. If the Padres of all teams can spend the way they do, it’s disturbing to think what the Yankees could truly afford to spend compared to what they actually spend.

If Soto isn’t a Yankee in 2025, that will be it for me as a Yankees and baseball fan. If the team that generates more revenue than any other team can’t sign the player who will command more money than any other player, then what’s the point? I don’t care about Hal Steinbrenner’s bank account or financial statements, which are what they are because he inherited the biggest ATM machine in sports by being luckily born to the right parents. He didn’t do anything to become owner of the Yankees, and he has done very little since becoming the head of the franchise, a franchise he didn’t want to manage and his father didn’t want him or his siblings to run. If the Yankees win the World Series, and Soto leaves, at least I will being going out as best I can.

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