1. Maybe Will Warren will go out and pitch the game of his life … or maybe the offense will explode for five or six early runs off Ranger Suarez and all this worrying will be for nothing. If neither of those things happens, it will have been a disappointing weekend that could set up a disappointing October.

That’s how I finished the Thoughts after the doubleheader. Warren pitched the best game of his career (lasting at least seven innings for just the third time in 63 career starts), the offense got to Suarez for six runs over 5 1/3, and instead of losing a game in the standings to the Red Sox and losing the head-to-head tiebreaker, the Yankees clinched the first wild card. Yes, that’s right: clinched.

2. With 25 games to play, the Yankees have a five-game lead over the Red Sox because of the tiebreaker. If the Yankees go a meager 13-12 in those games, the Red Sox would have to go 18-7 to pass the Yankees. With 12 of those games against the Angels, Rockies, Mets and Twins, Max Fried back and Aaron Judge expected back within the next two weeks, it’s hard to imagine the Yankees playing that poorly over the final month. (It’s also hard to imagine the Red Sox playing .720 baseball, considering they are 42-57 sandwiched around their historic hot streak.)

3. In the 16-1 win, the Yankees scored 11 runs against actual pitchers and then put up five runs against the Red Sox’ backup shortstop, including home runs from Austin Wells (who homered twice in the eighth inning) and Jose Caballero, both on 49-mph lobs. (Having position players pitch in blowout games is a disgrace. It’s sad that it’s “strategic” now. It’s not Wade Boggs coming in and dazzling with a knuckleball. It’s an embarrassment to the game.)

4. Before the game was a one-sided rout, Heliot Ramos had his first Yankees moment with a three-run home run in a five-run fifth inning. Ramos was in a position to have his big swing because of a controversial call ruled in the Yankees’ favor earlier in the inning. Caballero led off the inning with a single. Jazz Chisholm then hit a ball to center field that was ruled a trap by Ceddanne Rafaela to set up first and second with no outs. The Red Sox’ challenge was unsuccessful and the replay room allowed the call on the field to stand. After that, Ali Sanchez laid down a sacrifice bunt to move the runners over and Paul Goldschmidt hit a ground ball up the middle to score them both. Cody Bellinger singled and then Ramos broke the game open. The Yankees added a run in the sixth, one in the seventh and nine in the eighth.

5. The good news is the Yankees won the season series, have a five-game edge over the Red Sox and went 7-2 against the Red Sox around the four-game disaster at Fenway Park at the end of June. The bad news is the Yankees are going to have to play in the Wild Card Series against the Red Sox for a second straight season and possibly didn’t face a single starting pitcher the Red Sox would use in that series. I would expect the Red Sox to use Sonny Gray, Payton Tolle and Garrett Crochet (if he returns and is able to start). If not Crochet, then I guess it would be Jake Bennett, who shut the Yankees down on Friday, outside of the Goldschmidt home run.

6. No matter who ends up pitching, surviving a three-game series against the Red Sox is going to be as painful as it was last October and has been every time they have met in October outside of the 1999 ALCS. I’m not yet mentally, emotionally or physically prepared for it. The two teams have met six times in the playoffs — all in my lifetime — and both teams have advanced three times with the Yankees winning 14 games and the Red Sox winning 13 games.

7. And they are going to meet in October, because if I’m going to call the race for the first wild card over, I have to call the division over as well. I guess I already did that when I wrote the Thoughts titled Division Race About Done three weeks ago. At the time the Rays were 71-46 and the Yankees were 66-52. Since then, the Rays have gone 11-8 and the Yankees have gone 12-7. Three weeks and 19 games have come off the schedule and the Yankees have made up a single game. It’s just not going to happen unless the Rays lose something like 16 or more of their remaining 26 games.

8. The Padres blew a three-run lead in the seventh inning in a loss to the Rays on Saturday and then blew a two-run lead in the ninth inning on Sunday. It’s hard to be upset with the Padres for being shit when the Yankees couldn’t take care of their own business against the Rays this season (the Yankees are 3-6 against the Rays) or really anyone for two months, but the Yankees better sweep the Padres next weekend like the Rays just did this weekend.

9. So it’s looking like the Yankees’ postseason path in 2026 is going to be a lot like 2025: host the Red Sox for a three-game series, and if they survive that, they get to go on the road for the ALDS with their rotation out of whack to play an opponent they have trouble beating in a venue they have a hard time winning in. It’s less than ideal. That’s what happens when you don’t win the division. The Yankees’ only path now is to sweep the four-game series against the Rays in late September and play one game better than them in their other 21 games.

10. Next up is a West Coast trip to Anaheim and San Diego. Three straight 9:38 start times and a 9:40 start time. It’s going to be a long week of late nights, but it will be easier to handle if the Yankees can beat up on an Angels team that is the worst in all of baseball and a Padres team that just pooped their pants against the Rays. Couple that with the Mets and Rangers beating the Rays and I will gladly trade sleep to cut some games off the division deficit to begin September.

1. The old baseball adage that “it’s hard to sweep a doubleheader” held true on Saturday as the Yankees lost the afternoon game to the Red Sox 6-0 before winning the night game 9-2.

The first game on Saturday was the type of game Yankees fans have seen too frequently this summer as the offense took another game off. After scoring one run in the Astros series finale and one run in the Red Sox series opener, the Yankees were shut out in the second game of the series. Here are some appalling stats from Katie Sharp:

The Yankees had two runs, 12 hits and 31 strikeouts over the last three games. It was the first time in franchise history the Yankees had any three-game span with two or fewer runs, 12 or fewer hits and 30-plus strikeouts.

It was the 23rd game this season the Yankees had four or fewer hits. The Yankees had 17 such games all of last season.

The Yankees went 4-for-31 with no walks and nine strikeouts in the game. The only Yankees to have hits were Heliot Ramos (double), Cody Bellinger (single), Jose Caballero (single) and Spencer Jones (single).

2. You can’t win if you don’t score, so the Yankees weren’t going to win the game no matter what, but it’s not like the pitching was any good. Carlos Rodon lasted just 4 2/3 innings due to a pitch count and ineffectiveness and Ryan Yarbrough got rocked in relief. Rodon allowed a first-inning home run to a left-handed batter and had a mental meltdown in the fifth.

An Amed Rosario throwing error in the fifth on a double play attempt led to a runner on second with two outs. Rodon then allowed an infield single putting runners on the corners with two outs. A passed ball by Ali Sanchez led to a close play at the plate in which Rodon didn’t get the tag in time. The runner was called safe and while Rodon argued the call, the other runner moved up before being sent back on a phantom “time” call. Clearly rattled and unable to control his emotions (normal Rodon stuff), Rodon then walked the No. 9 hitter and hit the leadoff hitter and was pulled from the game.

3. Moments before Rosario’s throwing error in the fifth, he blew the chance to tie the game with some of the worst baserunning you’ll ever see. Rosario’s indecision between second and third base on a ball Ceddanne Rafaela misplayed into a double led to him being thrown out at home and prevented the game from being tied. Rosario likely would have been designated for assignment when Bellinger returned if not for the injury to Ryan McMahon, and each time he plays (which isn’t often), he continues to make it hard to justify keeping him if a roster spot is needed at some point.

4. George Lombard Jr. hurt his knee on a swing in the second game, stayed in to record a single in that at-bat, played defense and took another at-bat before eventually being removed. The fact that the Yankees let the future of their franchise continue to play for as long as they did in a game they eventually took him out of is nothing new for the Yankees. But if Lombard Jr. is in fact injured and is forced to miss time and Anthony Volpe returns, that will be it for me. I will walk away. It’s hard enough to watch an Aaron Boone-led, Aaron Judge-less team. The absence of Lombard Jr. and return of Volpe would be the final straw.

5. Max Fried returned from the injured list for the second game and looked like himself. He held the Red Sox to one run (a solo home run) over 3 2/3 innings, but like Rodon, was limited by a pitch count.

The Yankees trailed 1-0 in the third inning and after leaving runners on first and third with one out in the second, it started to feel like another game in which the offense wouldn’t do anything. Then the Yankees built three runs by not doing much.

Caballero led off the third with a single and Trent Grisham walked. Ben Rice singled in Caballero and Grisham moved to third. Ramos was hit by a pitch, Luis Garcia drove in a run with a groundout, Jazz Chisholm drove in another run with a sacrifice fly and the Yankees had a 3-1 lead.

6. Boone asked Yerry De Los Santos to get the last out of the fourth in relief of Fried, which he did. De Los Santos returned to the mound for the fifth and got the first two batters before allowing a two-out single. That led to Boone bringing in Michael Fulmer and Fulmer got out of the inning with one pitch.

In the sixth, the Yankees still led 3-1 with the Red Sox’ 3-4-5 hitters due up. It’s a spot that had Paul Blackburn’s name all over it. But instead of going to Blackburn, Boone sent Fulmer back out. Fulmer hit the first batter and walked the second batter. With the tying run now on base with no outs, Boone brought in Blackburn. After losing the first game of the day, the Yankees’ wild-card lead over the Red Sox was back to two games. The night game had become the latest most important game of the season, and yet, Boone was willing to steal outs in a two-run game with the heart of the Red Sox’ order up with a pitcher the Yankees signed out of necessity only a few days earlier. Thankfully, Blackburn saved his manager from his latest in-game managerial disaster, saved the inning and saved the game by retiring three straight hitters.

7. The Yankees added a run in the sixth to make it a 4-1 game, and when the Red Sox got that run back in the eighth to make it 4-2, the Yankees exploded for a five-run eighth to make it 9-2, put the game out of reach and avoided using David Bednar. Not using Bednar was extremely important because Brent Headrick pitched on Friday and Saturday (and was ineffective both times) and Blackburn pitched on Friday and Saturday as well, making both unavailable for Sunday. If Bednar had pitched on Saturday, he too would be unavailable for Sunday, but now he will be available.

The bullpen is a mess for Sunday. Based on the Yankees’ internal rule that no reliever is allowed to pitch three straight days, Headrick and Blackburn are both unavailable. De Los Santos pitched in both games on Saturday, so he’s unavailable. Yarbrough threw three innings on Saturday, so he’s unavailable. That means the Yankees’ available relievers are Fulmer, Justin Topa, Tim Hill and Bednar. How the Yankees plan on winning a game with their offense, Will Warren starting and only Bednar available among their elite relievers is beyond me.

8. The Yankees have a chance to go up four games on the Red Sox with 26 games to play and clinch the head-to-head tiebreaker with a win on Sunday. In order to do so, the offense will need to put up runs against Ranger Suarez and Warren will need to not suck. Because Warren does suck and got lit up by the Red Sox in his only start against them in June (5.2 IP, 5 ER, 0 K), the offense is going to have to do more than hit a couple of solo home runs. I think the best possible plan would be for Warren to give the Yankees a quality start (6 IP, 3 ER) and then try to piece together nine outs from Fulmer, Hill and Bednar. The problem with that is Warren has only one quality start since May 31. And then the other problem is asking Fulmer and Hill to serve as a bridge from Warren to Bednar.

9. Because the Rays are back to not losing (5-1 in their last six), the Yankees are now five games back in the loss column in the division. The math keeps getting worse and games keep coming off the schedule. The Rays have 27 games left. If they play under .500 and go 13-14, they will win 94 games and the Yankees would have to go 18-8 to pass them. We have reached the point where sweeping the Rays in the four-game series in the Bronx at the end of September and outplaying them by one game in all other games is the Yankees’ only path to winning the division.

10. That makes Sunday’s series and season finale against the Red Sox all the more important. The Yankees wanted to win at least two games this weekend and they have achieved that goal. If the Yankees lose on Sunday, four games will have come off the schedule and the Red Sox will be no closer than they were before the series started with no remaining head-to-head games to erase the deficit on their own. But a loss on Sunday keeps the Red Sox within two games of the Yankees and gives the Red Sox the head-to-head tiebreaker for home-field advantage in the Wild Card Series if the two teams finish with the same record. It’s unfortunate Warren is starting the newest biggest game of the season with such enormous implications. The idea that the Yankees will split a four-game home series against the Red Sox in which they didn’t have to face either Payton Tolle or Sonny Gray is unnerving. Maybe Warren will go out and pitch the game of his life and hand the ball right to Bednar or maybe the offense will explode for five or six early runs off Suarez and all this worrying will be for nothing. If neither of those things happens, it will have been a disappointing weekend that could set up a disappointing October.

1. Nine days ago, during the Orioles series, I mapped out the Yankees’ rotation for the next three series. At the time, Cam Schlittler was on track to pitch against the Astros and miss the Red Sox series. That couldn’t happen, I wrote. The Yankees had to hold him back to pitch against the Red Sox. They did, and on Friday night in the Bronx, you saw why.

There has never been a Yankees pitcher who has owned the Red Sox the way that Cam Schlittler does. Schlittler has now made four career regular-season starts and one postseason start against the Red Sox and this is his combined line: 32.1 IP, 20 H, 7 R, 2 ER, 9 BB, 39 K, 2 HR, 0.56 ERA, 0.897 WHIP. It’s a preposterous line for any major-league pitcher against any major-league opponent, let alone a Yankees pitcher against the Red Sox.

2. On Friday, Schlittler held the Red Sox scoreless for 5 2/3 innings despite not having nearly his best stuff and the Yankees won the biggest game of the season to date 1-0. Schlittler’s normal impeccable control evaded him as he walked five in the game and failed to have a single 1-2-3 inning, but each time the Red Sox put runners on, Schlittler walked off the mound unscathed.

When Wilyer Abreu reached on catcher’s interference with two outs in the first inning, Schlittler struck out Willson Contreras. After walking two with two outs in the second inning, Schlittler got a strikeout and groundout to end the threat. When Abreu hit a two-out double in the third, Schlittler struck out Contreras again. After a two-out walk in the fourth, Schlittler induced a groundout to end the inning. With two on and one out in the fifth, Schlittler got an inning-ending double play thanks to a lineout and some awful baserunning by Ceddanne Rafaela. In the sixth, Schlittler got two quick outs, but then walked Caleb Durbin and Aaron Boone went to Brent Headrick to eventually end the inning.

3. The entire scoring in the game was a Paul Goldschmidt solo home run in the third inning. The Red Sox went 5-for-30 with six walks and nine strikeouts. The Yankees went 3-for-27 with four walks and 11 strikeouts. The Yankees have scored two runs in their last 18 innings. They are a combined 8-for-58 with six walks and 22 strikeouts. That’s a good way to end the division race.

4. Goldschmidt went 1-for-4 with the home run and a strikeout in the leadoff spot. (It was Goldschmidt’s third start since August 1.) Ben Rice went 2-for-4 with two strikeouts (Rice has come alive with .981 OPS over the last two weeks). Cody Bellinger went 0-for-4. (Bellinger’s defense made up for it.) Heliot Ramos went 0-for-1 with two walks and a strikeout. (He’s a problem because he isn’t hitting and he keeps being put in prime spots in the batting order.) Trent Grisham went 0-for-2 with a walk and a strikeout. (This is who Grisham is). George Lombard Jr. went 0-for-2 with a walk. (Good at-bats all around for Lombard Jr. and his error streak is over.) Jazz Chisholm went 0-for-3 with two strikeouts. (To be expected from Chisholm.) Jose Caballero went 0-for-3. (To be expected from Caballero). Austin Wells went 0-for-3 with three strikeouts. (Wells has struck out in six straight plate appearances.) Spencer Jones went 0-for-1 with a strikeout.

5. Headrick (two outs), Paul Blackburn (five outs) and David Bednar (three outs) closed out the game in relief of Schlittler. As I wrote recently, those three and the game’s starter are the only pitchers I want throwing pitches in postseason games and Friday was a postseason-like game.

6. Bellinger’s throw home to get Rafaela in the seventh inning was spectacular. Everything about the play was perfect. The way Bellinger backed up to step into the catch with his momentum going toward home. The throw, which was perfectly on line on one hop to home. The pick by Wells to receive the throw and the tag Wells put on Rafaela just in time to get the out. It was a lead-saving and possibly game-saving play by the best left fielder in the world.

“I was able to get some good momentum going home,” Bellinger said.

“That was one of the defensive plays of the year,” Boone said.”

7. It’s obvious Headrick and Blackburn are fatigued, considering the way they have been hit recently after not being hit all season. But there’s no other choice right now to bridge the gap from starter to Bednar other than those two because the Yankees really only play close games and they have to use their best every night to win and keep pace with the Rays.

8. The Rays won as the Padres were no help on Friday. The Yankees’ lead over the Red Sox is back up to three games, but the division deficit remains at four games.

Here is the updated path to winning the division:

The Yankees are 76-58.
The Rays are 80-54.
Four games back.

The Yankees go 2-1 against the Red Sox. 78-59.
The Rays go 1-1 against the Padres. 81-55.
3 1/2 games back.

The Yankees go 4-2 against the Angels and Padres. 82-61.
The Rays go 3-4 against the Mets and Rangers. 84-59.
Two games back.

The Yankees go 4-2 against the Rockies and Mets. 86-63.
The Rays go 3-3 against the Braves and Astros. 87-62.
One game back.

The Yankees go 4-2 against the Twins and Diamondbacks. 90-65.
The Rays go 3-3 against the Athletics and Red Sox. 90-65.
Tied.

The Yankees go 2-2 against the Rays. 92-67.
The Rays go 2-2 against the Yankees. 92-67.
One game back due to the Rays winning the head-to-head tiebreaker.

The Yankees go 2-1 against the Orioles. 94-68.
The Rays go 1-2 against the Phillies. 93-69.
The Yankees win the division by one game.

It’s still possible, but certainly losing two of three at home to the Astros hurt the math pretty badly. It would be nice if the Yankees just went on a 10-game winning streak and the Rays went on a 10-game losing streak. That would make this easy. But after the Rays’ recent slide where they lost seven of nine, they have rebounded by winning four of five.

9. Saturday is a day I have been looking forward to for months: a Yankees-Red Sox doubleheader. The Yankees will give the ball to Carlos Rodon in the afternoon game and Max Fried in the night game. The Red Sox are going with Jake Bennett in the first game and have yet to announce a starter for the second game. Rodon’s pitch count should be around 85-90 for his start. Fried threw 88 pitches on August 13, but I have no idea how many pitches he will be allowed to throw.

10. The safest way to negate any limitations for either starter on Saturday is for the offense to show up in a way it hasn’t in the last two games. That takes pitch count questions out of the equation, it takes using relievers not named Headrick, Blackburn or Bednar in high-leverage spots out of the equation and it takes Boone out of the equation. Score runs and put the Red Sox away like you should have at the end of June.

1. Just when you think you can trust Gerrit Cole to win a big game and the offense (with or without Aaron Judge) to show up in a big game, they remind you of who they really are. Cole was mediocre (because that’s what three earned runs in six innings is), and with a chance to maintain their position in the division and wild-card standings, the offense disappeared, going 5-for-31 with 11 strikeouts.

“I thought we made a lot of really good pitches tonight,” Cole said. “I think in certain situations we executed and they beat us, so it’s just a bit unfortunate. But sometimes that’s the way it breaks.”

2. That’s the way it seems to break for Cole in every big game (and given the standings, every game is a big game from here on out). Cole talks about how good his pitches were and the Yankees lose. I’m sure he will do just fine against the American League-worst Angels next week.

3. Of course the loss isn’t only on Cole. Hayden Wesneski continued the undefeated Law of Ex-Yankees as the former prospect held the Yankees to one run over five innings with a season-high six strikeouts. (Which opposing starter hasn’t recorded their season high for strikeouts against the Yankees this season?)

4. Trent Grisham continued his between-homers-disappearing act with another 0-for-4. Grisham went 2-for-11 in Toronto then 4-for-12 in Baltimore then 2-for-10 against the Blue Jays and 1-for-12 against the Astros. This is what Grisham is and why he has no business batting leadoff. A true contender’s leadoff hitter can’t have one good series every couple of weeks sandwiched around shit.

Here are the leadoff hitters of teams with more wins than the Yankees:

Shohei Ohtani: .927 OPS
Pete Crow-Armstrong: .924
Yandy Diaz: .829 OPS
Jackson Chourio: .822 OPS
Ronald Acuna: .731 OPS

Acuna is having the worst season of his career with an OPS 151 points below his career average, and yet, he still has a higher OPS than Grisham and there isn’t a person in the world who would take Grisham in any plate appearance over Acuna. Then there’s Kyle Schwarber (.890 OPS) and Fernando Tatis (.801 OPS) and even Nick Sogard of the Red Sox at .772.

5. Ben Rice went 2-for-4 with a double and has a .954 OPS in the last 10 games after deciding his two-month experiment of swinging at every pitch thrown to him wasn’t a viable strategy.

Luis Garcia went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts and Cody Bellinger went 0-for-2 with a walk. George Lombard Jr. went 1-for-4 with a triple and two strikeouts and also made an error for the sixth straight game, something no Yankees shortstop has done in 111 years.

Spencer Jones went 0-for-3 with a strikeout and Heliot Ramos struck out pinch hitting for Jones.

Jazz Chisholm went 1-for-2 with a walk and a strikeout and Amed Rosario made an out pinch hitting for Chisholm.

Austin Wells went 0-for-3 with three strikeouts. YES has stopped showing the graphic of Wells’ first-half numbers compared to his second half as his second half is slowly looking like his first half. Wells has a .502 OPS over the last two weeks with 13 strikeouts in 33 at-bats.

Jose Caballero went 1-for-3 and didn’t add to his portfolio of worst plate appearances you’ll ever see as he holds the first-, second- and third-worst plate appearances of the year for the Yankees.

6. It was a bad loss. A really bad loss given the Yankees’ starting pitching advantage and the fact that the Astros’ pitching (as a whole) sucks. But it’s the kind of loss that happens over 162 games. The problem is when you give away two months of the season and then need every win possible to win a division race, you can’t afford to lose games in which you have a very clear edge.

7. The Rays and Red Sox both picked up a half-game on the Yankees by doing nothing. The math is really ugly once again for the division with the Yankees four games back with 29 games left to play. If the Rays go even 14-15 the rest of the way, the Yankees will have to go 19-10 to pass them. The Yankees are getting to the point where their only chance at the division is to win all four games against the Rays at Yankee Stadium in the last week of the season.

8. But the Yankees can’t worry about the Rays at the moment because they have to worry about the Red Sox who arrive in the Bronx for four games in three days with two games separating the teams in the loss column. The Yankees have lost four straight to the Red Sox and five of six. The Yankees need to win at least three games this weekend to clinch the head-to-head tiebreaker, which could be extremely important to determine the venue for a potential Wild Card Series matchup.

9. The Yankees pushed Cam Schlittler back to start on Friday against the team he owns, and that’s the only game of the weekend that the Yankees will have a clear starting pitching advantage in. Other than that, they’re going to use Max Fried (fresh off his second appearance on the injured list for a bone bruise), Carlos Rodon (who never pitches well against the Red Sox) and Will Warren (who never pitches well against anyone). The Red Sox are likely to use four left-handed starters in the series, which poses a problem because the Yankees’ only right-handed bats are Lombard Jr. and his 20 career games, Caballero and his .559 OPS since June 20, Rosario and his .611 OPS against lefties, Ramos and his .411 OPS as a Yankee, and Paul Goldschmidt, who has a .443 OPS since June 26 and has started two games since August 1. (The Yankees traded for Ramos specifically for a series like this, and he’s going to hit somewhere in the first five spots in the order and has to do damage. I would feel a lot better about the Yankees’ chances this weekend if Judge and Giancarlo Stanton were playing, but Judge just started swinging at overhand pitches and Stanton is home laughing at the $179,012.35 he is making each game to not play. Well, maybe not laughing since he would probably pull a rib cage muscle doing that. Meanwhile, the Red Sox may get Roman Anthony and Trevor Story back this weekend. Not ideal.

10. The Yankees are responsible for reviving the Red Sox’ season. When the two teams met for four games at Fenway Park in late June, the Red Sox were 14 games under .500 and the Yankees had a three-game division lead. Since then, the Red Sox are 41-14, while the Yankees have seen their three-game lead become a four-game deficit. The Yankees never let the Red Sox pass them during their insane two-month run, and that needs to remain true through this weekend.