I know what’s happening with the Giants because I have lived it many times.

The Giants start 0-2 and then win a couple of games to reel me back in after I gave up on them and the season. Then they lose a couple of games and I feel like an idiot for getting tricked by them. Then they win a couple more games and I fall for their postseason chances once again, all while at the same time injuries in the NFC East and poor play from the rest of the conference has cleared a path for the Giants to potentially reach the playoffs despite being a mediocre-to-bad team.

I have lived that exact season in many Giants season and it’s happening again.

The Giants were blown out in Week 1 and embarrassed in Week 2 before being gifted a win in Week 3. Now they have a home game against a defense as bad as theirs and an offense that is nowhere near theirs, even without Saquon Barkley. There’s a very real chance the Giants could be and should be 2-2 after this week, and with the Eagles at 1-2 facing a tough matchup and the Cowboys going on the road to New Orleans, the Giants could be in second place and one game back in the division on Sunday.

But then the other shoe will drop, the way it always does. The Giants will lose to the Vikings and Patriots in Weeks 5 and 6 to remind everyone who these Giants really are. But then they will bounce back against the Cardinals at MetLife and possibly in Detroit as well, finishing up with the Cowboys and Jets before their bye.

I thought the Giants were going to leave me alone this season. I thought this season was going to be about Daniel Jones gaining valuable experience and the team being bad enough to get defensive help near the top of the 2020 draft. But now it’s definitely going to involve me trying to map out the remaining schedules for all NFC teams with postseason chances and trying to find a path for the Giants to play in January.

I can see this unfolding from a mile away. I want to be strong enough to not fall for it, but the Giants are the most persuasive bad major professional sports team there is.

(Home team in caps)

GREEN BAY -4 over Philadelphia
In order for the Giants to toy with my emotions and waste three-plus hours of 13 of the next 14 Sundays for me, they’re most likely going to need some help. Considering their defense, they’re definitely going to need some help. That means having other NFC East teams and other average NFC teams losing. The Eagles are one of those teams.

I’m sure the Eagles and their fans had Super Bowl aspirations entering this season and probably still do. If not for Alshon Jeffrey tipping that eventual interception up in the air in the divisional round, the Eagles might have returned to the Super Bowl and might have even won it. They were good enough to.

But now the Eagles are 1-2, after coming up short on their final drives against the Falcons and Lions in back-to-back weeks. Six of their next seven games are against Green Bay, Minnesota, Dallas, Buffalo, Chicago and New England. The easiest of those is on the road against the undefeated Bills. Outside of Week 5 against the Jets, it’s a gauntlet. The Eagles’ season isn’t in trouble yet, but it’s headed that way. Because I’m on my way to believing in the Giants again, I’m going to need the Eagles pushed out of the way.

New England -7 over BUFFALO
For last week’s 23-point line in the Patriots-Jets game, I wrote:

This line could be 35 and I still couldn’t take the Jets. I get that it’s ridiculously high and if the Jets were to ever find the end zone even once it might complicate things since their defense is solid, but I don’t think they’re going to find the end zone on offense. Maybe on defense or special teams, but that can’t be counted on.

The Jets’ special teams and defense did both find the end zone to impact the line and cover for the Jets, but I would still give the 23 points every time.

The Bills might have a strong defense and an improved offense, but they’re still the Bills, and they’re still playing the Patriots. I will be rooting for the Bills to win, but I certainly can’t pick them to cover here.

Tennessee +4 over ATLANTA
The Titans have let me down after their impressive Week 1 win in Cleveland. Then again, the Browns are nowhere near as good as people thought they would be because they added Odell Beckham, and the Titans look to be the same 7-9 or 8-8 team they usually are. The Titans can turn their season around with winnable games the next three weeks, starting in Atlanta this week. The Falcons are also trying to save their season, but as always, I will be rooting against them not to.

BALTIMORE -6.5 over Cleveland
The Ravens are the real deal. The Browns aren’t. I laughed at those who picked the Browns to go to the AFC Championship and laughed harder at those who picked them go to the Super Bowl. Even picking the Browns to be a playoff team should have warranted some laughs with the way they have looked through three weeks.

If 10 wins gets you a playoff berth, and the Browns have one win, it’s hard to find where they are going to get nine more wins in 13 games. They do have Cincinnati and Pittsburgh twice and Miami once, but that would only get them to six. They would still need three more wins from a schedule which includes Baltimore twice, San Francisco, Seattle, New England, Buffalo and not necessarily easy matchups on the road at Denver and Arizona.

The Browns might have Baker Mayfield, Odell Beckham, Jarvis Landry and Nick Chubb, but everything about them says they’re a seven- or eight-win team.

The Ravens, on the other hand, are a playoff team and the likely NFC North champion. For now, they don’t appear to be a real threat to the Patriots or Chiefs for the AFC, but they’re levels above the Browns.

Kansas City -6.5 over DETROIT
Nothing sums up the chaotic nature of football more than the Lions’ first three games.

In Week 1, they blew an 18-point fourth-quarter lead to a rookie head coach/quarterback combination and eventually tied. In Week 2, they won a defensive matchup against the much-better-on-paper Chargers. In Week 3, they went to Philadelphia and held off the Eagles for a three-point win thanks to a 100-yard kickoff return touchdown and a pair of recovered fumbles.

Anyone who has watched the Lions this season would find it absurd that anyone would ever wager money on football. But to that I say, the unlikely outcomes and unpredictable results like the three Lions games have had is exactly why gambling on football is so fun.

When it comes to picking Kansas City games, if I’m going to go against them, I’m going to need at least a touchdown, and most likely more. 

HOUSTON -4.5 over Carolina
Panthers fans have to feel more confident with Kyle Allen as their starting quarterback than with Cam Newton, right? In his second career start, and really first actual start since the Week 17 game against New Orleans last season was a formality game for both in advance of the postseason, he was outstanding. Allen threw four touchdown passes and looked like something Newton hasn’t in a long time.

Newton won’t play again this week and Allen will start. I have never listened to North Carolina sports radio, but if Allen plays well again, I think I’m going to have to check it out. I want nothing more than for there to be a quarterback controversy with the Panthers. 

INDIANAPOLIS -6.5 over Oakland
I like this Colts team. They have a solid defense and possibly the best offensive line in the league, and when you have that combination, wins will follow, no matter if your quarterback is Andrew Luck or Jacoby Brissett. The Colts have followed up their season-opening overtime loss at the Chargers with impressive wins at Tennessee and over Atlanta. The Colts were a playoff team with Luck last season and I think they are again without him this season. The Raiders shouldn’t be getting anything less than a touchdown against playoff teams.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS -15.5 over Miami
Normally, I don’t take the Chargers when they have to leave California and the Pacific Time Zone, but exceptions have to be made when it comes to games involving the 2019 Dolphins.

I don’t trust the Chargers to cover in this game and it wouldn’t surprise me if this ends up as an unbelievable upset. But there’s just no way I can take the Dolphins, who have scored 16 points total in three games to cover any sort of spread, especially when they are losing on average by 39 points.

NEW YORK GIANTS -2.5 over Washington
I know what’s happening here because I have lived it many times. The Giants start 0-2 and then win a couple of games to reel back in all of their fans who gave up on them and the season. Then they lose a couple more games and those fans who were reeled back in feel like idiots. Then they win a couple more games and those idiots are once again tricked into believing because injuries in the NFC East and poor play from the rest of the conference has cleared a path for the Giants to potentially reach the postseason despite being a mediocre-to-bad team. It’s happening again.

The Giants were blown out in Week 1 and embarrassed in Week 2 before being gifted a win in Week 3. Now they have a home game against a defense as bad as theirs and an offense that is nowhere near theirs, even without Saquon Barkley. There’s a very real chance the Giants could be and should be 2-2 after Sunday. And with the Eagles at 1-2 facing a tough matchup and the Cowboys going on the road to New Orleans, the Giants could be in second place and one game back in the division.

But then the other shoe will drop, the way it always does. The Giants will lose to the Vikings and Patriots the next two weeks to remind everyone who these Giants really are. But then they will bounce back against the Cardinals at MetLife and possibly in Detroit as well, finishing up with the Cowboys and Jets before their bye.

I can see this unfolding from a mile away. I want to be strong enough to not fall for it, but the Giants are the most persuasive bad major professional sports team there is.

ARIZONA +5 over Seattle
The Seahawks beat the now-winless Bengals by one point at home then beat the Ben Roethlisberger-less Steelers by two points on the road and then lost to the Drew Brees-less Saints. The Seahawks aren’t any good, but that’s what happens when most of your salary cap is tied up to your quarterback. Everyone needs to stop thinking of the Seahawks as the defense-led team which won the Super Bowl, and start thinking of them as a team that’s been average since they built their roster around Russell Wilson.

LOS ANGELES RAMS -9.5 over Tampa Bay
The Buccaneers lost to the Giants. When you lose to the Giants, you should be getting no less than double-digit points the following week, especially when you have to fly across the country to play the defending NFC champions.

Minnesota +2 over CHICAGO
This game should be played the exact same by each team: run-first offense combined with great defense. The Vikings and the Bears are similarly built and both led by untrustworthy quarterbacks. The Vikings have more playmakers on offense, while the Bears have more on defense. It’s about as even of a matchup as you could ask for.

The Vikings giving up the usual third point as a road team in a divisional matchup says a lot, and as long as Kirk Cousins doesn’t run the game, the Vikings should win. But thinking Cousins won’t ruin a game is like thinking Mitch Trubisky won’t ruin a game. I will probably regret this pick the first time Cousins drops back against the Bears’ pass rush.

Jacksonville +3 over DENVER
Gardner Minshew got his first career win and the Jaguars got their first win of the season, and now they both have a 10-day layoff to get Minshew more acclimated as the starting quarterback. With Nick Foles, I have to think the Jaguars’ Week 1 loss to Kansas City is much closer and that they score more than 12 points and probably win in Week 2 against Houston. But at 1-2, their season is still alive, and with their defense, they will have a chance each week, even without Foles. It’s never easy going on the road to Denver, but it’s a little easier going against this year’s underwhelming Broncos’ offense.

NEW ORLEANS +2.5 over Dallas
After waxing poetic about Teddy Bridgewater in last week’s picks, he went out and led the Saints to a win on the road in Seattle, where it used to be impossible for road teams to win. Bridgewater threw two touchdown passes and didn’t turn the ball over, playing the exact way he did when he led the Vikings to the playoffs in 2015.

The Cowboys have yet to be tested after getting the awful defenses of the Giants and Redskins in Weeks 1 and 2 and then the Dolphins, who might be the worst team in the history of the NFL, in Week 3. The Cowboys are good, but they’re not undefeated, class-of-the-NFC good. Right now, they’re riding high, and probably thinking they’re the cream of the crop in the NFC, as their fans are, but this week in New Orleans should be a nice wake-up call for them after having the easiest opening schedule through Week 3 in the league.

Cincinnati +4 over PITTSBURGH
Nothing says Monday Night Football like two 0-3 teams battling to be the less embarrassing franchise.

Last week: 9-7
Season: 23-25

I originally planned on going to Tampa this coming weekend to see the Giants play the Buccaneers on Sunday and then see the Yankees play the Rays during the week. But between the Giants being the worst team in the NFC and the Yankees preparing to use spring training lineups for the final two weeks of the season, it didn’t make sense to go all the way to Florida to watch my teams play meaningless games.

Then Wednesday happened and Pat Shurmur announced Daniel Jones as this week’s starting quarterback, effectively ending Eli Manning’s career. I don’t think Manning is going to be traded, and I don’t know that he would want to be, and he’s certainly not coming back next season, so Sunday’s loss was probably the last time we ever see Manning play for the Giants, barring an injury to Jones or meaningless garbage-time minutes between now and Week 17. Had I kept my trip to Tampa, I would have gotten to see the start of the Jones era and the first time a quarterback other than Manning had a future with the team in nearly 15 years.

Unfortunately, this is the right move for the Giants. They aren’t competitive and aren’t going to reach the postseason this year. I don’t know when any Giants fan can expect them to reach the postseason again. This season now has to be about the future, which it was always going to be about, no matter how much BS ownership, Dave Gettleman or Pat Shurmur spewed to the media in the offseason. It’s why the Giants should have either moved on from Manning before the draft, or committed to Manning, and used all of their draft picks to help the team win now. Instead, they tried to do a little bit of both and it’s led to an offense without any healthy and capable wide receivers, and a defense lacking a pass, secondary and the basic fundamentals of trying to prevent the other team from scoring.

The moment the Giants drafted Jones, Gettleman and Shurmur’s employment timer with the Giants began, and now that he’s actually going to play and has a potential 14 games to showcase his abilities in, that employment timer is going to pick up its pace. The general manager and head coach are tied to the success or failure of Jones, as is the entire organization, and if he proves to be an NFL quarterback over the next 15 weeks, they will keep their jobs. If he doesn’t, another duo, hopefully a better duo, will get to pick the future of the team at the 2020 draft.

It’s going to take the rest of the season to properly evaluate Jones as a potential franchise quarterback and determine whether or not the current front office made the right decision or if they wasted the sixth overall pick and an entire season, and unnecessarily ended the career of the best quarterback in franchise history. The Giants’ future begins on Sunday in Tampa. At least there’s a reason to watch for the rest of the season.

***

Back-to-back 7-9 weeks to start the season isn’t great from a record standpoint, but is good enough to have survived the first weeks of the season and all of the quarterback injuries to stay afloat. Week 3 is a chance to get above .500 and stay above .500.

(Home team in caps)

JACKSONVILLE +2 over Tennessee
It’s hard to put a lot of faith into Gardner Minishew, but the replacement for Nick Foles has been better than expected after taking over early in Week 1 and playing a full game in Week 2. It hasn’t translated into wins, as the Jaguars are 0-2, but at least the Jaguars have a serviceable option at quarterback and can at least expect to be competitive, unlike say, the Jets.

I expected big things out of the Titans this season, and after their Week 1 win over the Browns, I felt great about them. But then they laid an egg in their home opener in an expected low-scoring AFC South game, and I saw the usual .500-esque offense from the Titans, led by Marcus Mariota’s blah game.

I had a lot of fun rooting for, picking for and winning money on the Jaguars in their run to the AFC Championship Game a couple years ago, and I thought I was going to have similar fun this season with Foles as their quarterback and one of the league’s best defenses. That idea hasn’t gone according to plan, but there’s still time for it to happen, if the Jaguars can win this week. If not, their season’s over at 0-3.

NEW ENGLAND -23 over New York Jets
I love the college line the Jets are getting this week and the Dolphins got last week and will continue to get.

If Sam Darnold had played on Monday night, the Jets would have won. The Browns were so underwhelming and Baker Mayfield looked so bad that had the Jets had even just a bad quarterback and not two awful options, they might have won. Instead, the Jets watched Trevor Siemian suffer a season-ending injury and then watched Luke Falk run a game plan in which nearly every pass was thrown behind the line of scrimmage en route to their loss.

This line could be 35 and I still couldn’t take the Jets. I get that it’s ridiculously high and if the Jets were to ever find the end zone even once it might complicate things since their defense is solid, but I don’t think they’re going to find the end zone on offense. Maybe on defense or special teams, but that can’t be counted on.

Cincinnati +6 over BUFFALO
What a gift the Bills received from the NFL getting scheduled to open the season against two bad teams in the Jets and Giants on the road, in the same state, a short plane ride away to MetLife. The Bills are 2-0 as a result of getting to play against the shaky Jets and defenseless Giants and have already played 25 percent of their road schedule. Now with home games against Cincinnati and Miami within the next month, there’s a good chance the Bills could be at 5-3 or even 4-3 a month from now.

Except these are the Bills we’re talking about. If there’s a possibility to screw something up, they will screw it up. Having a Week 3 home game and their home opener against the Bengals seems like it can be counted as a W, but again, these are the Bills. The Bills were fortunate to play their first two games against teams which will most likely get to draft in the first five picks in 2020.

The Bengals did get blown out at by San Francisco last week, but held their own in Seattle the week before. I don’t think the Bengals are good or are going to necessarily win in Buffalo, but it’s hard to believe the Bills could be giving six points to any team, and it’s even harder to believe they will cover.

DALLAS -21.5 over Miami
When the Dolphins start running plays on their opponent’s side of the field, I will start considering taking them to cover the massive spreads for their games, which are only going to grow in size as the season goes on. I don’t think Josh Rosen is going to get the chance he spoke about at the 2018 draft to make all the teams that passed on him regret passing on him.

GREEN BAY -8 over Denver
This game will be used in teasers more than any other game in Week 3. That normally would be enough to scare me into taking the points, but not after watching Denver play at Oakland in Week 1.

INDIANAPOLIS -1.5 over Atlanta
It’s possible the Jacoby Brissett Colts are just as good as the Andrew Luck Colts. They have played well in the first two weeks of the season and look as good as they did at the end of last year before losing to the Texans in a weird game in the postseason.

I know what the Falcons are and have made my reasons for continuing to pick against them and their head coach clear in previous picks blogs. I’m not about to go against my principles, especially when the Falcons have to go on the road and face a better, more well-rounded team.

KANSAS CITY -6.5 over Baltimore
I need at least a touchdown to fall back on if I’m going to pick against the Chiefs.

MINNESOTA -9 over Oakland
Last week, in reference to their successful Week 1 game plan, in which the Vikings only let Kirk Cousins throw the ball 10 times, I wrote: If the Vikings stick to their plan and don’t allow Cousins to ruin the game, they will be 2-0 and in first place in the NFC North. If they go back to what made them unsuccessful last year, they will be unsuccessful again. Well, Cousins threw the ball 32 times in Week 2, and what do you know, he threw two interceptions, fumbled the ball twice and lost one of the fumbles.

It’s impressive the Vikings only lost by five with the way Cousins played, and had anyone other than Kirk Cousins as their quarterback, they would be 2-0 this season. Had anyone other than Cousins been their quarterback last season, they probably would have won the NFC North and returned to the NFC Championship Game too. But the Vikings are stuck with Cousins, who is bad as it gets at throwing accurate passes and maintaining possession, and it’s hard to envision them going anywhere as long as he’s on the team.

Fortunately for the Vikings, they get the Raiders at home this week in what should be a rout. If it’s not, that should tell you all you need to know about this team’s chances with Cousins, as if there hasn’t been enough to tell you all you need to know since the start of last season.

PHILADELPHIA -6.5 over Detroit
The Eagles are dangerously close to being 0-2, but I guess most teams in the NFL are always dangerously close to having a completely opposite record. I know this because I’m a Giants fan who has watched them lose many games in recent years decided by three points or less and most games by seven points or less. At some point, the Eagles are going to look like a team expected to win the NFC East and compete for a second championship in three years. What better time to look like this team than at home agains the Lions.

ARIZONA 0 over Carolina
I was upset with myself for picking the Panthers on Thursday Night Football in Week 2 the second the Panthers offense took the field. The Panthers have one playmaker in their entire offense in Christian McCaffrey and the Panthers run nearly every single play through him. I have no idea how he’s going to be able to hold up for a lengthy career with the way he’s used in Carolina, but for now, the Panthers have no choice.

Cam Newton has drastically regressed since his 2015 MVP season and the only way the Panthers can be successful is by handing the ball off to McCaffrey or by throwing him a two- or-three-yard pass and hoping he can gain significant yards after the catch. It’s an easy offense and strategy to prepare for, and even the rookie-led Cardinals will be able to handle it.

TAMPA BAY -6.5 over New York Giants
It doesn’t matter that Jameis Winston isn’t good because it doesn’t matter which quarterback plays against the Giants’ defense, they are going to get lit up. That the Giants are going on the road against a Bruce Arians offense in what will be the first start for Daniel Jones makes this a rather easy pick for me. A 16-year veteran could barely function without any NFL-worthy receivers. I’m sure a rookie debut in his NFL debut will do much better.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS -3.5 over Houston
The Chargers left the Pacific Time Zone, and unsurprisingly, they lost. A return home this week should return the real Chargers, who can only really be trusted in games played in California.

New Orleans +4 over SEATTLE
Once upon a time, Teddy Bridgewater was the starting quarterback of the Vikings and led them to what should have been a postseason win over the Seahawks, if not for a Blair Walsh 27-yard field-goal attempt.

Since Bridgewater’s career-altering knee injury with the Vikings, the Vikings have traded away a first-round draft pick for Sam Bradford, only to have a 5-0 season end at 8-8, and they have turned to Case Keenum, who led them to within a win of the Super Bowl, only to move on from Keenum to give a guaranteed $84 million to Kirk Cousins, who is at best as good as Keenum.

The Vikings could have kept Bridgewater following his knee injury and eaten the money they would have been forced to pay him while he was injured and it would have been a whole lot less than the money they guaranteed to Cousins. Had Bridgewater not been able to make a comeback from his injury, the team could have stayed with Keenum as quarterback. They would have retained the first-rounder they gave away for Bradford and would have had a lot more salary-cap space available without Cousins. Since Bridgewater did make a comeback, he would be the quarterback, the offensive and defensive lines would have more money invested in them, and the Vikings would be better than they are currently and would have been better than they were last year as well.

I don’t like the Saints, but I love Bridgewater, and I’m rooting for him to make the Vikings’ front office continue to look foolish.

SAN FRANCISCO -6 over Pittsburgh
The Steelers are headed toward a long, loss-filled season. The lines for their games are only going to grow in size as the season progresses. Get in on going against the Steelers before the lines get too high.

Los Angeles Rams -3 over CLEVELAND
I picked against the Browns last week before it was announced the Jets would start Siemian. Unfortunately, the Jets were essentially quarterback-less on Monday night and gave away a winnable game. But my need for the Browns to lose and be losers with Odell Beckham on the team still exists.

Chicago -4 over WASHINGTON
The Bears went into this season with Super Bowl aspirations. After two weeks, they don’t look like a playoff team, forget a championship contender. I don’t know how the Bears or Bears fan can believe in Mitch Trubisky, or how they can think they will ever win it all with him. Maybe Trubisky will greatly improve, and maybe the first weeks of the season will be looked back on as anomaly for this Bears season, but scoring three points at home in Week 1 and needing a time-expiring field goal to the beat the Broncos in Week 2 isn’t exactly promising.

I still believe in the Bears, because of their defense and because of their running game, but Week 3 is about as must-win as it gets with Minnesota (twice), New Orleans, Los Angeles Chargers, Philadelphia, Los Angeles Rams, Dallas, Green Bay and Kansas City on their schedule.

The Bears need a big win at Washington.

Last week: 7-9
Season: 14-18