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Author: Neil Keefe

Blogs

Jun 2, 2020

Artemi Panarin Is Rightful MVP, Hart Trophy Winner

Rangers fans and any hockey fans who can think on their own or who have read this will know Artemi Panarin is the real MVP.

The finalists for this season’s Hart Trophy winner as the NHL’s most valuable player are Leon Draisaital, Nathan MacKinnon and David Pastrnak. Normally, I could care less about an individual award, but it’s hard to ignore an egregious mistake like this one. Not only is Artemi Panarin not going to go down as this season’s MVP, he’s not even being considered for it.

It’s hard to find any free agent in any sport not named Max Scherzer who lives up to his monetary value. As a first-year Ranger surrounded by the youngest roster in the NHL, Panarin was more than worth his $14 million salary this season in what was the first year of a a seven-year, $81.5 million contract. Panarin has spent nearly all of his 5-on-5 ice time playing with Ryan Strome, the former 5th overall pick who was given up on by both the Islanders and Oilers, and Jesper Fast, a nice complementary piece and role player but not someone who should be playing on the opposite wing of the Bread Man. Meanwhile, Draisaitl has had the luxury of playing alongside Connor McDavid, and when the two are broken up, they still play together on the power play, which is where 40 percent of Draisaitl’s league-leading points total came from. MacKinnon has Gabriel Landeskog and Mikko Rantanen and David Pastrnak is only ever on the ice with Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron. The simple fact that Panarin finished third in points (95), behind Draisaitl (110), tied with Pastrnak and ahead of MacKinnon (93) with Strome and Fast as his linemates should have been enough to make him or anyone in that situation not just an MVP finalist, but the MVP.

Maybe if Panarin played mostly with Mika Zibanejad my previous point would be full of holes, but Panarin rarely ever sees Zibanejad on the ice with him. David Quinn strongly believes in line balance. He only turns to the dynamic duo in the event of an emergency, like the Rangers trailing by a goal with a few minutes left in the game. Usually by then, it’s too late and had the two been together all game, the Rangers likely wouldn’t be trailing by a goal with a few mintues left. Quinn treats pairing the two as if there is a limit on how often and for how long he can do it, and as of now there are only three situations Quinn purposely has the two on the ice at the same: the Rangers are trailing in the third period, the Rangers are on the power play or it’s overtime. Otherwise, Panarin is stuck with Strome and Fast.

Panarin finished first in 5-on-5 points with 71, which means 75 pecent of his points came mostly with Strome and Fast, mostly without Zibanejad on the ice and without a man advantage. Draisaitl recorded 66 even-strength points, which was only 60 percent of his total, MacKinnon 62 (67 percent) and Pastrnak 57 (60 percent). Draisaitl, Pastrnak and MacKinnon finished first, third and fourth in power-play points, which is easy to figure when you think about the talent and skill on the first power-play units of their teams. Panarin was the best even-strength player in the league, which is the way the majority of the game is played. And he was the best even-strength player in the league with RYAN STROME and JESPER FAST as his linemates. I need to keep reiterating that point because of how unbelievable it really is.

If that’s not enough for you, according to Evolving Hockey, Panarin was first in the league in both Goals Above Replacement (GAR) and Wins Above Replacement (WAR). He bested Draistail in GAR (24.9 to 15.4) and in WAR (4.4 to 2.7) and also played a more complete game, topping Draisaitl in goals against per 60 minutes. There’s no stat other than overall points in which Draisaitl, the MVP front-runner, performed better than Panarin, and 40 percent of those points came on the power play when Draisaitl and the best player in the world don’t leave the ice until the Oilers score or the power play expires.

Whenever the NHL Awards are held for this season, if they are ever held, it won’t be Panarin who officially receives the Hart Trophy as the league’s most valuable player. But Rangers fans and any hockey fans who can think on their own or who have read this will know Panarin is the real MVP.

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Blogs • Yankees

Jun 1, 2020

MLB Will Return if Owners Want It to Return

I’m back and the site is back and I will write and prepare as though there will be baseball at some point, even if that point ends up being late March in 2021.

I always feared the Sunday before the Major League Baseball All-Star break. That Sunday is the last Yankees game before a four-day layoff. It’s the last meaningful baseball before a four-day layoff. It’s the last day of any sports before a four-day layoff. Each year I wonder how I will possibly get through the four days without a Yankees game or a baseball game or a sporting event. What would I do at 7 p.m. each night to pass the time? What do non-sports fan do every night at 7 p.m.? Those four days would always feel like an eternity, but they won’t ever again.

Nearly 12 weeks ago, I was watching the Rangers-Avalanche game in what would be a hard-fought loss for the Blueshirts as they let a much-needed point slip away in the standings (and what would also be a hard-fought losing bet for me on the Rangers’ enticing money line) when the news broke that the NBA season had been suspended. I knew the NHL would be next to suspend their season and I knew I was watching the last Rangers game for a few weeks ago, I just didn’t know how long.

That night, Opening Day was 15 days away, though the following day, after MLB had allowed spring training games to inexplicably be played, MLB also postponed the start of their seasson by at least two weeks at the time. My late-March, early-April trip to Tampa to watch the Yankees play the Rays in Games 4, 5 and 6 of the season had in turn been canceled, but I thought, maybe I will be able to reschedule the Tampa trip for the mid-May series at the Trop (spoiler: that also didn’t happen). While MLB was delaying the season by two weeks, the NCAA Tournement announced the entire Tournament would be played without fans in the stands. At the time, it seemed like the Tournament of all events would be a farce or ruined if played in empty arenas, but in hindsight, everyone would have signed up for Tournament being played at half-court playground courts if it meant the Tournament could still take place as it was canceled completely.

Here we are, nearly 12 weeks since the Rangers lost in overtime to the Avalanche and missed an opportunity to increase their playoff odds, and 12 weeks since the last time I wrote anything. The morning of that Rangers game, I wrote my weekly Wednesday spring training Spring Cleaning blog titled What’s Wrong with the Yankees? in which I once again called out the Yankees for their mishandling of injuries. The following day as I was set to write my weekly Rangers Thursday Thoughts blog, I decided to take a break from writing and podcasting until the pandemic passed. I didn’t think it would be June 1 the next time I would write something.

These nearly three months have been a grind to say the least. A grind to fill the space usually filled by sports. I didn’t want to spend my time writing nonsensical blogs about if the 1998 Yankees would beat the 2009 Yankees or what were the Top 10 games of the 2000 season. There was enough of that filler content to go around and I could care less about ranking Paul O’Neill’s career home runs in day games at Yankee Stadium. I wasn’t in the mood to write or record anything during a time when sports seemed so distant and unimportant. I spent the first few days of a sports-less world watching old Yankees games on TV and YouTube, but that habit ended around the same time the Yankees should have been starting their season on March 26 in Baltimore. The farther removed from actual hockey and spring training baseball I have gotten, the more the absence of sports in my life has become the norm. Seeing old Yankees games on TV with a packed Stadium and players hugging and high-fiving after monumental moments now feels odd to watch.

In the first few days of quarantine, July 1 became a reported target date for the return of baseball. After spending all winter and the offseason waiting for March 26, a potential Opening Day target date had been moved back another half-offseason. Back in late March, July 1 felt like years away. But now it’s June 1 and July 1 is a month away, which means another spring training would only be about two weeks away. There could be baseball in the not-so-distant-future … if the MLB owners want there to be baseball. And every report and indication to this point is that they don’t care if baseball returns or not, and the only way it will return if is the players, the ones who will be at risk during a pandemic, take a massive and unnecessary pay cut.

I want baseball back even if means empty stadiums, a weird postseason format and the possbility the Yankees could end their championship drought in a shortened season in which all non-Yankees fan will say it doesn’t count. I want it back the same way I want hockey back even if the always-intense Stanley Cup playoffs will feature empty arenas and players celebrating goals by jumping into the glass without anyone behind them banging on it and a team hoisting the Cup in a neutral-site arena in front of no one. I can’t watch anymore old games. I just can’t. I can’t watch Game 1 of the 2000 World Series, or Game 6 of the 2009 World Series or Hideki Matsui’s first Yankee Stadium game or David Cone or David Wells’ perfect game (which seem to be the only games YES has avaialble for Yankees Classics) anymore. I just can’t.

I want baseball back if it can come back safely. But in order to even get to the safety precautions needed for it to the return, the owners will first have to pay the players the prorated salaries they are owed. The NHL has already agreed to return in a 24-team format, which will include the Rangers as part of the postseason, but it seems like their restart won’t begin until the end of July at best. Baseball has the opporunity to come back much sooner with spring training games beginning in the next two weeks or so and actual regular-season games four weeks from now. The return of baseball falls completely on the owners, and because of that, I’m more than pessmistic about a single pitch being thrown this year.

I want to be wrong, however, last week was reported to be a “big week” for negotiations between the owners and players, and if anything, it seems as though the two sides are farther apart than they were the week before. So now I guess this week is “an even bigger week” for the two sides to reach an agreement to play in 2020, but I’m sure nothing will come out of it other than the owners asking the players to take another pay cut from their pay cut.

I’m back and the site is back and I will write and prepare as though there will be baseball at some point, even if that point ends up being late March in 2021. If there’s no baseball, I will just have to wait for hockey to return about two months from now. I know that feels like a long time from now, but it’s only two months. What’s another two months?

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My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!

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Blogs • Spring Cleaning • Yankees

Mar 11, 2020

Spring Cleaning: What’s Wrong with the Yankees?

Add starting catcher to the list of Yankees unvailable as Gary Sanchez tested positive for the flu and is now out.

The Yankees are without their starting left fielder, center fielder, right fielder, No. 2 starter and No. 3 starter, and now you can add starting catcher to that list. Gary Sanchez tested positive for the flu, and now he’s also out. When will the injuries (and now illnesses) end? I’m really asking. When will it end?

Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees as usual.

1. The Yankees’ mishandling of injuries is an embarrassment. Right now, the team will start the season without their entire starting outfield and No. 2 and 3 starting pitcher, and they won’t get their No. 2 starter back until 2021. The injuries to Luis Severino, James Paxton and Aaron Judge were all sustained last season and went untreated the entire offseason. Judge injured himself in mid-September, Paxton in late September and Severino in October and now all three will miss time in 2020 because of 2019 injures, and Severino will miss part of 2021 because of an injury from 2019. Even Aaron Hicks’ elbow injury which needed Tommy John surgery was delayed enough that he would miss somewhere around half this season, which didn’t have to the case. This can’t go on. It’s gone on since February 2019 and now just over two weeks from Opening Day 2020, the Yankees will field a starting outfield made up of depth players and a rotation that will likely feature an opener as the fifth starter. Over the last month, without real, meaningful baseball, the Yankees have severely watched their postseason and World Series odds take a massive hit because of injuries which could have been dealt with over the winter.

2. It’s Gary Sanchez’s turn to be out now. After complaining about back soreness following catching two games on back-to-back days, Sanchez has now tested positive for the flu. It was only a matter of time until illness was the reason for an expected Yankees starter to go down, and here we are.

That graphic is from April 20, 2019, and not much has changed. Severino, Sanchez, Stanton, Hicks and Judge are all injured. The only non-injured player in the graphic who is still a Yankee is Miguel Andujar and he’s returning from a shoulder injury and surgery that kept him to only 12 games played a year ago.

3. Without Severino, Paxton, Stanton, Hicks and Judge on the Opening Day roster, five roster spots will go to players/pitchers who weren’t going to be Yankees to begin the season or essentially one-fifth of the roster. That’s a big deal. It’s not like the five roster spots are going to bench players or mop-up bullpen arms or the 21st, 22nd, 23rd, 24th or 25th roster spots. They’re going to the entire starting outfield and the second- and third-best starting pitchers on the team.

4. It’s becoming more evident the Yankees are going to use an opener as their fifth starter to begin the season until either James Paxton comes back, a true fifth-starter option emerges or the opener plan fails. Given the way Chad Green was so successful as the opener last year and the amount of games the Yankees were able to win with the strategy they stole from the Rays, I’m all for the opener as the fifth starter. It’s better than Chad Bettis or Nick Tropeano going out and giving up five runs in three innings. If the Yankees are going to overwork their bullpen, they might as well actually have a chance to win the games they are going to do it in.

5. Brett Gardner is going to bat in the top third of the lineup against right-handed pitching early in the season. I’m ready to be upset about and I’m already upset about just the idea of it. Even with three of the team’s expected nine out, Gardner is no way belongs hitting anywhere higher than seventh in the linep … ever.

6. The Yankees wanted Miguel Andujar to learn how to play the outfield in advance of this season to make him more versatile and maybe play it in the event of an emergency like Thairo Estrada had to in a game last season. Now the Yankees might need him to play it out of necessity. I think the Yankees will go with an everyday outfield of Gardner, Clint Frazier and Mike Tauchman for now, but the Yankees are one more injury away from Andujar being an everyday outfielder after having never played the position before this spring training.

7. It’s been three-and-a-half years since Frazier was traded as the headliner in the Andrew Miller pre-2016 deadline selloff. Now 25, I feel like this is Frazier’s last opportunity to prove himself as a potential everyday player for the Yankees, and to showcase his abilities to the rest of the league in the event the Yankees are ever at full strength before this season’s trade deadline. I have always rooted for Frazier and wanted him to succeed even when he was playing the outfield like he was drunk last season. I thought it should have been Frazier and not Tauchman getting the everyday opportunities last season, and if there were only one starting outfield spot available now, I would feel the same. I can’t believe Frazier is still a Yankee, having been able to avoid four offseasons and three deadlines of trade talk, but he is, and this is it for him.

8. I was very anti-Tauchman last season at the beginning of the year, and rightfully so. He was awful. Before his midseason run where he was basically Mike Trout, Tauchman was an automatic out at the plate, and the Yankees kept playing him over Frazier and his .806 OPS. Tauchman’s absurd 34-game stretch through July and August in which he posted a .387/.452/.712 certainly can’t be expected really ever again, but I’m excited to see what he can do in what will be pretty much an everyday role right from Opening Day. The major-league futures of both Frazier and Tauchman rest on what they do before Judge and Stanton return.

9. Where is the Red Sox’ investigation? The release date of this continues to get pushed back, and it feels as though Major League Baseball is going to release it on Opening Day in order to have the focus be on actual baseball and not more electronic sign stealing within the game. Everyone thought it would come out at least a month ago, and as a recently as last week it was reported it was coming out last week. Unfortunately, I’m sure baseball will attach the Red Sox’ cheating to Dave Dombrowski, Alex Cora and any players or coaches who are no longer with the team to avoid a situation in Boston similar what has gone on with the Astros.

10. We’re at the part of spring training where it’s time for it to end and the regular season to begin. Gerrit Cole is striking out nearly every batter he faces and nothing good can come from him pitching in meaningless games over the next 15 days. The Yankees need to somehow get through the next two-plus weeks without anymore injuries and maintain what’s already a watered-down version of themselves for Opening Day.

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Download and subscribe to the Keefe To The City Yankees Podcast.

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My book The Next Yankees Era: My Transition from the Core Four to the Baby Bombers is now available as an ebook!

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Podcasts • Rangers

Mar 11, 2020

Rangers Podcast: Fix the NHL Point System

Neil Paine of Five Thirty Eight joined me to talk about improving the NHL’s current point system.

If the NHL was based simply on wins and losses, the Rangers would currently hold a postseason spot. If the league awarded three points for a regulation win, two points for an overtime or shootout win and one point for an overtime or shootout loss, the Rangers would currently hold a postseason spot. Unfortunately, the NHL rewards teams who fail to win in regulation and are able to rack up loser points throughout the regular season, and because of this, the Rangers will most likely miss the playoffs.

Neil Paine of Five Thirty Eight joined me to talk about his recent Rangers-related playoff point article, how the Rangers’ lack of overtime and shootout play has hurt their playoff chance and ways the NHL can improve their current point system and overtime format.

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Blogs • Rangers

Mar 6, 2020

Rangers Need to Screw Line Balance, Play Artemi Panarin and Mika Zibanejad Together All the Time

Screw line balance. Give me a Rangers super line the way the Bruins and Avalanche do business. Give me Artemi Panarin and Mika Zibanejad together all the time.

The Rangers had to win on Thursday night against the Capitals. They had to. Not only because they had four one-goal leads in the game and blew all of them, but because they had lost three straight, were watching their postseason odds rapidly decline and desperately needed to pick up two points for the first time in a week. With the Islanders on their way to an unaccetpable loss in Ottawa and the Hurricanes in Philadelphia at the worst possible time, a Rangers win over Washington would begin to undo the damage the Flyers and Blues had done to the Rangers over the last six days.

It’s hard to ever feel confident about the Rangers’ chances against the Capitals. Even in recent years when the Rangers were going to Eastern Conference finals and the Stanley Cup Final and eliminating the Capitals from the postseason in three Game 7s over four years, I never felt good about the Rangers playing them. Now in a rebuilding season, in which the Rangers have the youngest roster in the league and the Capitals have the oldest, it’s even harder to envision the Rangers doing enough for 60 minutes to beat them. Unless Artemi Panarin and Mika Zibanejad get significant playing time together.

I have wanted the Rangers’ two best players on the same line all season. Screw line balance. Give me a super line the way the Bruins and Avalanche do business. Give me Panarin and Zibanejad together and the third linemate doesn’t matter. If Panarin could do what he has done with Ryan Strome and Jesper Fast as his linemates, putting anyone out there alongside Panarin and Zibanejad wouldn’t matter. You could put Greg McKegg out there with them and get production. You could put Micheal Haley out there with them and get production. That’s how good the two are together.

The problem is David Quinn strongly believes in line balance. He only turns to the dynamic duo in the event of an emergency, like the Rangers trailing by a goal with a few minutes left in the game. Usually by then, it’s too late and had the two been together all game, the Rangers likely wouldn’t be trailing by a goal with a few mintues left. Quinn treats pairing the two as if there is a limit on how often and for how long he can do it, and as of now there are only three situations Quinn purposely has the two on the ice at the same: the Rangers are trailing in the third period, the Rangers are on the power play or it’s overtime. Thankfully, on Thursday against the Capitals, the Rangers had six power plays, so the two could play significant minutes together, and thankfully, the Rangers were able to gain possession in ovetime.

Zibanejad became the third Ranger in history to score five goals in game in the Rangers’ 6-5 overtime win over the Capitals, scoring in every period and overtime. Panarin finished the game with three assists, all primary, with two of them on Zibanejad goals.

The duo either scored or created all six Rangers goals. When the Capitals took a 1-0 lead, the Rangers answered on the power play with Zibanejad deflecting in a Panarin shot. When the game was tied at 1, Zibanejad gave the Rangers the lead. When the game was tied at 2, Panarin sent a beautiful cross-zone pass to Tony DeAngelo to go up 3-2. When the game was tied at 3, Zibanejad scored again. When the game was tied at 4, Zibanejad again. When the game was tied at 5 in overtime, Zibanejad from Panarin.

The necessary presence of the two in the lineup this season can’t be overstated. When Zibanejad missed time early in the season, the Rangers endured a lengthy losing streak. When Panarin missed his only game of the season against the Islanders, the Rangers suffered their only loss in four games to the Islanders. Had the Rangers not lost Zibanejad early on and had the Rangers had Panarin for what ended up being a detrimental four-point swing in favor of the Islanders, it would be the Rangers holding off teams chasing them in the postseason race, rather than the Rangers doing the chasing.

Panarin is on pace for a 114-point season, while Zibanejad is scoring at a 58-goal pace over 82 games. Panarin eclipsed his single-season high in points when there was still six weeks left in the season, and Zibanejad is only three points away from tying his single-season high in points in 26 games fewer games. Playoffs or not, Panarin is still the MVP of the league and rightful Hart Trophy winner this season to me, but there is a strong case to be made for Zibanejad as well. I’ll take co-MVPs.

The Rangers needed a win, and their two best players delivered them one. The duo is going to need to deliver a lot more of them over the next four weeks. With 15 games remaining, the Rangers will have to win at least 10 to have a chance, and even then, it might not be enough for a wild-card berth. I keep waiting for other players to step up and carry the Rangers for a game or two under the idea that it can’t be Panarin and Zibanejad every game, but so far it has been them every game the Rangers win.

Thankfully, the Rangers have at least two more seasons of these two playing together. I just wish they would play together all the time and not only in three situations they’re “allowed” to.

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