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Author: Neil Keefe

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Yankees Thoughts: Defensive Disaster

The Yankees didn’t allow an earned run and lost to the Red Sox 6-3. Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.

1. If I told you Cam Schlittler would throw five innings and allow no earned runs with nine strikeouts and the bullpen would throw four innings without allowing an earned run in the series opener against the Red Sox, you would have likely asked how many runs the Yankees won a shutout win by. But they didn’t shut out the Red Sox. They didn’t win. They lost 6-3 as the Yankees’ defense combined to allow six unearned runs in what was an unmitigated defensive disaster.

2. “We just didn’t do a good job taking care of the ball tonight,” Aaron Boone said. “It’s just not up to the way we’ve been playing.”

I disagree. The defense during the Boone era has always been questionable at best, and of late it has been very bad. Four errors on Thursday, one on Wednesday, two on Monday, two on Sunday, one on Saturday, one on Friday. What are you talking about, Boone?

The four errors were the most the Yankees have committed this season. It was the first game the Yankees allowed six or more unearned runs and no earned runs since 1913. The Boone era is full of memorable history.

3. Austin Wells made an error with another catcher’s interference, Schlittler threw a pickoff attempt to second base away, Amed Rosario let a ground ball go through his legs and Yerry De los Santos had a fielding error. Add in a couple of pop-ups that dropped in and the defense was even worse than the box score indicates.

4. Schlittler went to a lot of deep counts in the game in what was the first time the Red Sox have ever challenged him, but if Rosario fields the grounder that went through his legs in the fifth, the Yankees turn an inning-ending double play. Instead, that miscue led to four unearned runs in the inning and a 2-0 Yankees lead turned into a 4-2 deficit. Boone said the ball Rosario couldn’t handle was “in fairness, absolutely lathered,” which was an embarrassing comment. It’s the major leagues. It’s a play that has to be made. It’s a play that Ryan McMahon and Jose Caballero make. It’s a play that Miguel Andujar makes.

“Definitely a play there that I’ve just got to make,” Rosario said. “I take responsibility there.”

Who else would take responsibility?

5. The Rosario miscue led to the first run and the Red Sox tied the game on a sacrifice fly when Jose Caballero couldn’t make an accurate throw home on a shallow fly ball. The Red Sox don’t try to score there if Cody Bellinger is in left field there, but when you have an infielder playing the outfield, that’s what you get, and the Yankees love nothing more than to have their best shortstop not play shortstop.

6. Rosario was in the lineup because the left-handed Connelly Early started. But it made no sense that Rosario was allowed to hit against the just-entered Garrett Whitlock to lead off the eighth inning. The Yankees had two left-handed options on the bench and Boone inexplicably stayed with Rosario. He struck out swinging on four pitches.

7. Offensively, it was another poor showing. The Yankees struck out 10 times, which is bad, and yet it’s not as bad as they’ve been at making contact of late. Rosario, Cody Bellinger, Anthony Volpe and Austin Wells all struck out twice. Ben Rice went 0-for-5 and Bellinger went 0-for-4. It’s going to be hard to win when those two don’t produce. Add in the inability to make major-league plays defensively, and you get the kind of result the Yankees experienced on Thursday.

8. “It’s always tough when we lose,” Caballero said. “The good thing is, there’s always tomorrow.”

Spoken like a player under Annie Boone. There’s always tomorrow … It’s only a day away.

9. Tomorrow in this instance is Friday and it will be Will Warren against Payton Tolle. Tolle dominated the Yankees for six innings in his April 23 start against them at Fenway Park. This is how the first four of those six innings went:

Strikeout
Strikeout
Strikeout
Strikeout
Groundout
Strikeout
Groundout
Flyout
Single
Walk
Single
Strikeout
Flyout
Strikeout

The Yankees finally broke through in the fifth inning when Jazz Chisholm hit the first pitch of the inning around Pesky’s Pole to tie the game at 1. Tolle pitched a 1-2-3 sixth inning and left with a 2-1 lead. The Yankees then went to work against the Red Sox’ bullpen in an eventual 4-2 win.

10. Tolle is really good, and against a lineup that is missing the right-handed bats of Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, it’s easy to envision him mowing the Yankees down like Early did on Thursday. Warren is going to have be really good and the defense is going to have to avoid producing six unearned runs for the Yankees to avoid a second straight loss to the last-place Red Sox.

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Yankees Thoughts: No Lollipop Needed

The Yankees overcame a two-run deficit to beat the Tigers 4-3. Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.

1. A day after Jazz Chisholm was ridiculously playing defense with a lollipop in his mouth, the outspoken, 50/50 chaser with a .731 OPS stopped the Yankees’ three-game losing streak with a two-run, go-ahead home run in the sixth inning against the Tigers.

“I was looking for the pitch all night,” Chisholm said. “I missed it earlier in the game, so I was on it.”

The Yankees were able to overcome an early 2-0 deficit to take a 4-2 lead and hold on for a 4-3 win in Detroit.

2. Monday marked the second time this season Chisholm played in a game with a lollipop in his mouth, after taking an at-bat with one earlier this season. Aaron Boone claims he didn’t know about Chisholm batting with a lollipop in his mouth and also wasn’t aware Chisholm played defense with one either until after the game. Instead of defending Chisholm like Boone has with every opportunity (including the idiotic baserunning decision on the infield pop-up in Miami last year), Boone said Chisholm playing with a lollipop “pissed him off” and that he spoke to his second baseman about it.

“He can have all the lollipops he wants now,” Boone said after Tuesday’s game.

3. The home run was Chisholm’s sixth in June and 12th of the year, putting him just 38 away from his goal of 50. (He’s 27 stolen bases away from his goal of 50 steals.)

The Yankees needed the Chisholm home run because Carlos Rodon turned in a poor start: 5.1 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 5 K. It was the eighth start of the season for Rodon and the fifth time he failed to go at least six innings. (He has yet to get more than 18 outs this season.) Yankees starters have only gone at least six innings in two of the last seven games.

4. A day after going 7-for-34 with two walks and 12 strikeouts the Yankees went 9-for-35 with two walks and 13 strikeouts. Every Yankee struck out at least once on Tuesday, Ben Rice and Jasson Dominguez both struck out twice and Spencer Jones struck out three times.

5. Fernando Cruz, Brent Headrick and David Bednar combined for 3 2/3 scoreless innings and the defense played a clean game. It was a much-needed win in a game against a really tough opposing starter in Casey Mize. With the Rays losing to the Royals, the Yankees are now two games up in the loss column in the division.

6. Austin Wells provided an RBI double in the sixth inning that ended up being the difference in the game. It was Wells’ second double of the season. Yes, you read that right: his second double of the season in the 78th game of the season.

7. Rice is 0-for-9 with four strikeouts in Detroit and his OPS has dipped under 1.000 as he’s no longer one of two players in the majors with an OPS of at least 1.000. Yordan Alvarez stands alone at the moment. (Rice is now third in the majors behind Alvarez and Nick Kurtz.)

8. The first thing I do when I see a series against the Tigers coming up is figure out if the Yankees will see Tarik Skubal. Unfortunately, they will on Wednesday (and again next week At Yankee Stadium). Skubal missed more than six weeks after needing elbow surgery and has been OK, but nowhere near his Cy Young-winning, dominant self since returning. That doesn’t mean he won’t be that version of himself against the Yankees.

9. There has been a lot of talk about the Yankees going all out for Skubal at this year’s deadline. If it takes some combination of Will Warren/Elmer Rodriguez and other starting pitchers, sure, go for it. If it involves George Lombard Jr., no thanks. Yes, Skubal at his best is the best pitcher in baseball, but he’s not at his best, had surgery last month and can be had for just money after the season. As a Scott Boras client, Skubal is going to free agency no matter what happens between now and the end of the season, so him going to the Yankees and pitching well or enjoying his time there won’t matter. Any team could use Skubal, even with one with the Yankees’ starting pitching, but they don’t need him to win a championship. Starting pitching won’t be the reason the Yankees don’t win the World Series.

10. Ryan Weathers gets the ball in the series finale and will look to build off his most recent dominant start against the White Sox. The last time Weathers was coming off a strong start he proceeded to have three starts in a row allowing five-plus earned runs, so there’s no telling what version of Weathers will show up on Wednesday. For as good as the Yankees’ rotation is and has been, right now, aside from Schlittler, there’s no telling what any of the other four starters will give you. But with Skubal on the mound, Weathers will need to be as good as he’s been all year for the Yankees to win this series.

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Yankees Thoughts: Disappointment in Detroit

The Yankees lost to the Tigers 5-3 for their third straight loss and fourth in five games. Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.

1. Before Monday’s series opener in Detroit, I wrote that I didn’t think the annual June Swoon under Aaron Boone had arrived:

The last four days, during which the Yankees went 1-3 against the White Sox and Reds and scored nine runs total, have made some Yankees fans feel like the inevitable June Swoon under Aaron Boone has arrived. I don’t think that’s the case. Am I scared of the Swoon coming at some point? Of course I am. How could you not be? But do I think these past four games are an indication of it? No, not yet. The Yankees still had a .500 homestand (3-3) and a winning road trip (5-1) before that. But if this is the Swoon, we will soon find out.

Well, we’re getting closer to this being the Swoon. Gerrit Cole and the defense were awful, the offense wasn’t much better and the Yankees lost to the Tigers 5-3 on Monday. It was the Yankees’ third straight loss and fourth in five games.

2. Thankfully, the Rays haven’t come out of their slump and the Yankees’ poor play of late hasn’t hurt them in the standings. It’s unfortunate the only other good team in the American League plays in the same division as the Yankees and if they were in any other AL division they would be sitting with a comfortable lead.

The Yankees are going to the playoffs. They have a greater than 99 percent chance of reaching the postseason. If the less than 1 percent chance of them not reaching the postseason happens then nearly everyone in the organization should be fired given how much of a lead they have on a postseason spot and how bad the AL is. Since they are going to the postseason, I analyze the team each game based on how their recent performance could affect their postseason play. Monday’s result was worrisome, as was Sunday’s.

3. These last two games were worrisome because the Yankees were shut down by Chase Burns and Framber Valdez, and those are the types of starters the Yankees will see every game in October. The last two days served as a reminder of how this team performs against elite starting pitching: a lot of strikeouts, a lot of weak contact and a lot of empty at-bats. Burns held the Yankees to a Ben Rice solo home run and Valdez held them to an Ali Sanchez RBI double, while posting a season-high eight strikeouts.

4. One could point to the fact that the Yankees are without Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Trent Grisham, but they could be without them in October, or they could be without other bats then. It’s very unlikely the Yankees have their best possible everyday players available come October. And even if those three are healthy, we have seen what Judge does (or doesn’t do) in the playoffs for a decade (outside of four games last year) and we all watched Grisham do his best postseason Nick Swisher impression last fall.

5. The Yankees’ three runs came on Monday from the Sanchez second-inning RBI double (before Sanchez left the game following a hit by pitch) and an Amed Rosario seventh-inning, two-run home run. Rice went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts, Paul Goldschmidt went 2-for-4 with a pair of singles and a pair of strikeouts, Cody Bellinger went 0-for-3 with a walk, Anthony Volpe went 2-for-4 with a pair of singles, Jazz Chisholm went 1-for-4 with two strikeouts, Jasson Dominguez went 0-for-4 with a strikeout, Jose Caballero went 0-for-3 with a walk and a strikeout and Austin Wells went hitless in his one at-bat. The Yankees went 7-for-34 with two walks and 12 strikeouts.

6. I’m not sure what Cole’s game plan was for the AL’s fourth-worst offense, but throwing fastballs down the middle couldn’t have been it.

“They took advantage of some pitches that probably leaked into the heart of the plate on him today,” Aaron Boone said.

“Probably?” No, that’s exactly what happened. The Tigers scored five runs and put 10 runners on in 4 1/3 innings against Cole.

7. The defense didn’t do Cole any favors as the Yankees committed catcher’s interference for the second straight day and Caballero picked up another error in the outfield. Caballero could make an error every game he plays in the outfield and I wouldn’t be upset. He could make multiple errors every game in the outfield and I wouldn’t be upset. BECAUSE HE’S NOT AN OUTFIELDER. Just like Dominguez isn’t a right fielder. But no team likes to play players out of position like the Yankees.

8. Paul Blackburn and Ryan Yarbrough combined for 3 2/3 scoreless innings of relief. Both looked very good (it may have been the best Blackburn has ever looked as a Yankee), which shows how bad the Tigers’ offense is for allowing those two to shut them down and how bad Cole was to let the Tigers light him up.

9. In this stretch of 10 games in 10 days against very good starting pitching, the Yankees’ offense failed their first test. They were shut down by Valdez and couldn’t overcome Cole’s inefficiencies against the Tigers’ bullpen. It won’t get any easier on Tuesday with Casey Mize going for the Tigers. Mize has a 2.58 ERA in 10 starts and has pitched well in four career starts against the Yankees (3.63 ERA).

10. Carlos Rodon goes for the Yankees, and as it is with every Rodon start, I have no expectations. It wouldn’t surprise me if he throws six scoreless innings and it wouldn’t surprise me if he gets blasted like Cole did. Rodon received 18 runs of support over his last two starts and with Mize going, the Yankees’ offense outhitting a bad Rodon start is unlikely. Rodon will likely need to be very good to end the Yankees’ three-game losing streak, or the June Swoon may very well be here.

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Yankees Thoughts: No June Swoon … Yet

The Yankees dropped a home series to the Reds, but are still having a good June, so far. Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.

1. The lack of Thoughts over the last two weeks has been due to moving. You forget how much moving sucks until you do it, and when you have three kids, moving is about as fun as watching Camilo Doval pitch in a high-leverage situation or watching Jazz Chisholm bat with runners in scoring position.

Since the last Thoughts, the Yankees swept the Guardians (very good), took two of three from the Blue Jays in Toronto (great), took two of three from the White Sox (good) and then lost two of three to the Reds (not good). The Yankees are now 10-7 since Aaron Judge went on the injured list, which is much better than I expected, and they hold a one-game lead in the loss column over the Rays in the division.

2. The last four days, during which the Yankees went 1-3 against the White Sox and Reds and scored nine runs total, have made some Yankees fans feel like the inevitable June Swoon under Aaron Boone has arrived. I don’t think that’s the case. Am I scared of the Swoon coming at some point? Of course I am. How could you not be? But do I think these past four games are an indication of it? No, not yet. The Yankees still had a .500 homestand (3-3) and a winning road trip (5-1) before that. But if this is the Swoon, we will soon find out.

3. These are the probable starting pitchers over the next 10 days until the Yankees’ next scheduled day off:

Monday: Framber Valdez
Tuesday: Casey Mize
Wednesday: Tarik Skubal
Thursday: Connelly Early
Friday: Payton Tolle
Saturday: Jake Bennett
Sunday: Sonny Gray
Monday: Tarik Skubal
Tuesday: Troy Melton (opener)
Wednesday: Keider Montero

Bennett has 20 2/3 career innings to his name, Melton is an opener and Montero is inconsistent, but the others? Not great. If the Yankees are going to avoid the June Swoon, they are going to have to do more offensively than they did over the last four days, especially with the Rays playing seven games against the Royals during these 10 days.

4. Austin Wells returned to the lineup on Sunday, immediately committed catcher’s interference in the first inning and went 0-for-2 at the plate before being lifted for a pinch hitter. The Yankees and YES continue to talk about how good Wells is defensively and at handling the pitching staff, which is a nice way to say a player is a zero at the plate. Michael Kay mentioned on Sunday how good Wells would be as a player if he could just be league average offensively. League average? He’s currently 52 percent worse than league average. Sign me up for Wells being 20 percent worse than league average at this point. Wells hasn’t been league average from an OPS+ standpoint in two years.

5. Anthony Volpe started the month 4-for-30 with a .379 OPS against the Guardians, Red Sox and Blue Jays. Then the White Sox and Reds came to the Bronx and he went off, going 8-for-18 with a 1.176 OPS. Don’t let these last two series fool you into believing Volpe figured it out. The Yankees saw some atrocious pitching at home this past week and they won’t see any of that for the next three series. As I have written numerous times, it’s going to take Volpe performing at or above league average for the entire season for me to even consider believing he has figured it out.

6. Wells talked about how good Elmer Rodriguez looked on Sunday, aside from one pitch, and Rodriguez said the same about his performance. Except you can’t be good when you last four innings and allow three earned runs, even if they all came on one pitch. That’s rarely going to be good enough to win and when Chase Burns is the opposing starter it’s never going to be good enough.

7. Where would the Yankees be without Judge if Ben Rice weren’t doing what he’s doing? Rice and Yordan Alvarez are the only two players in the majors with an OPS of at least 1.000. The AL MVP is Alvarez’s to lose with Judge out for an extended period, but Rice is right there.

8. I guess where would they also be without Paul Goldschmidt. Since the last Thoughts two weeks ago, Goldschmidt has hit .327/.346/.633 with five home runs and 13 RBIs in 12 games. It’s been an absurd season for Goldschmidt who looked as washed as washed gets from the start of May last season through the end of last season.

9. Jasson Dominguez is hitting .286/.310/.500 with four extra-base hits in seven games since returning from the injured list. A few too many strikeouts, but he will clean that up, considering he’s only had 62 plate appearances this season. Take your time healing, Trent Grisham. I’m in no hurry to watch Grisham play every day again.

10. The Yankees are in Detroit for the next three days, and again, they will see Framber Valdez, Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal: the worst three Tigers starters you could possibly draw. The Tigers are a mess at 33-44, but those three starters aren’t. This series will be an important test for the Judge-less Yankees offense, considering the only elite-level starter they have seen since Judge went out was Burns and he dominated them outside of a Rice solo home run.

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Yankees Thoughts: Well-Timed Postponements

The Yankees went 1-1 against the Red Sox over the weekend. Here are 10 thoughts on the Yankees.

1. In the last two weeks, the Yankees have gotten two games postponed, one to late August and one to late September. The first postponement came against the Rays when they were hotter than hot. The next day, the Yankees beat them and the Rays are 3-10 since with the Yankees having cut a seven-game deficit in the loss column down to one. The second postponement came against the Red Sox with the Red Sox having the pitching advantage with Ranger Suarez against Will Warren, and the Yankees without Aaron Judge. Instead, the Yankees were able to start Cam Schlittler against Suarez, won the game and prevented a game without Judge from being played. In the moment, these postponements sucked because postponements suck. In the big picture, these two postponements were blessings.

2. Before Max Fried got hurt, it looked like Ryan Weathers had saved his rotation spot in the battle to be the fifth starter over Will Warren with Carlos Rodon returning. Then Fried went on the injured list and the battle ended with the Yankees needing both Weathers and Warren in the rotation. There’s still a chance the Yankees need both when Fried returns because someone else could get hurt or they could go to a six-man rotation, but if not, it seems like Weathers could be the one to lose his spot. Friday was Weathers’ third time allowing five earned runs in his last four starts. He gave up two home runs to the Red Sox in Friday’s 5-3 loss.

3. Brian Cashman has been trying to find a young, controllable starter through trade since he became general manager nearly three decades ago and Weathers is his latest attempt to conquer that goal. There’s a chance Weathers will work out and be what so many (Jeff Weaver, Javier Vazquez, Michael Pineda, Nathan Eovaldi, Sonny Gray, Jameson Taillon, etc.) weren’t, but so far he’s looked an awful lot like all of the other names that have failed to be consistent performers in the role.

4. Here is what I wrote before the weekend series:

The new expected ceiling of runs for the foreseeable future is four. Anything more than that will be a surprise and anything less than that should be expected. But as I wrote last week, the Yankees are dominant when they score four runs … the Yankees are 32-9 when they score four runs. That’s all they need to do: score four runs and have a 78 percent chance of winning.

The Yankees scored three runs on Friday and lost. Then they scored six runs on Sunday and won. Five of the six runs on Sunday came in an eighth-inning explosion against the Red Sox’ bullpen that included two home runs from Cody Bellinger and Jazz Chisholm. A loss on Sunday would have been crushing because it would have meant wasting another Cam Schlittler performance (5.1 IP, 1 ER) and with the offense and the injured list what they are, the Yankees can’t afford to waste Schlittler starts.

5. The Yankees can’t afford to give away outs either and they are willingly doing so every time the lineup is posted and Anthony Volpe’s name is in it. On Sunday, Volpe’s weak arm led to the Red Sox’ first run when Volpe was unable to throw the ball home despite having ample time to get the runner on a bad send. It’s a play every major-league shortstop should make, and it’s a play that likely every major-league shortstop other than Volpe does make. While Volpe was letting the Red Sox tie the game at 1 , the Yankees best shortstop was standing in right field watching it unfold.

6. Volpe left the bases loaded in his second at-bat on Sunday and left the go-ahead run in scoring position in his third at-bat. He finished the weekend 1-for-7 with a walk. His OPS is down to .644 on the season. He was undeservingly recalled nearly a month ago and has done nothing to be worthy of remaining in the majors. He can’t hit, he can’t field and he can’t throw. His “hot” start has turned into a mirage just like it did last year and the year before that and the year before that. Without Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton (and even Jasson Dominguez), the Yankees need to optimize on the margins as much as possible. They need to squeeze every last percentage point out of their win probability added on offense and defense and playing Volpe at shortstop hurts both. At this point, if you like Volpe, you don’t like the Yankees.

7. J.C. Escarra got sent down before the weekend only to be recalled because Austin Wells went on the injured list with cervical headaches. I’m guessing Wells’ recent change in catcher’s mask is related to the headaches. But if Wells has been experiencing headaches severe enough to send him to the IL, why has he continued to play? Either he didn’t say anything, which hurt him and the team, or he did say something, and the team continued to play him. I think it’s the latter. Given the way past injuries have been handled by the Yankees, it’s likely Wells said something and it was disregarded. When he went to the equipment team and asked to use the hockey goalie mask instead of the traditional catcher’s mask he has always used, didn’t they question the change? Didn’t they want to know why?

8. The headaches aren’t an excuse for Wells, but they will be used as one. He has been catching full games without issue, and he has looked as bad at the plate as he has dating back to last season. So underperformance isn’t anything new for Wells. He has one more hit, as many home runs and seven fewer RBIs than Stanton this season and Stanton hasn’t played since April 24.

9. A six-game road trip to Cleveland and Toronto will be tough. I would sign up for 3-3 right now given the Yankees’ offense and knowing that Boone is going to force idiotic decisions like Volpe at shortstop and batting sixth or seventh in at least half the games on this trip. This is how the probables will likely play out:

Monday: Will Warren vs. Gavin Williams
Tuesday: Gerrit Cole vs. Slade Cecconi
Wednesday: Carlos Rodon vs. Parker Messick
Thursday: OFF
Friday: Ryan Weathers vs. Braydon Fisher/Spencer Miles
Saturday: Cam Schlittler vs. Kevin Gausman
Sunday: Will Warren vs. Patrick Corbin

The Yankees are getting a gift by avoiding Trey Yesavage.

10. The Yankees will open the road trip against Williams, who they hit pretty well last week in the Bronx with three runs in 5 1/3 innings off him. (It didn’t matter because Cole was throwing batting practice.) Warren has only made one career start against the Guardians (last April), so that should play into the Yankees’ favor at least the first time through the order. I expect Warren to pitch well, but I have no expectations for the offense and won’t until Judge returns (and even then I have tempered expectations with the ‘Run It Back’ offense). But the offensive goal remains the same: Score four runs and (likely) win.

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