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Tag: Tom Coughlin

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Giants-Lions Week 1 Thoughts: Debacle in Detroit

The Giants opened the 2014 season the same way they opened the 2013 season. The only difference is that they were in Detroit this year and not Dallas.

New York Giants at Detroit Lions

One year ago when the Giants lost 36-31 to the Cowboys in Dallas on Sunday Night Football, I was disappointed about the Giants’ sloppy six-turnover effort. But it was promising knowing that despite turning the ball over six times (three interceptions, three fumbles), Eli Manning threw for 450 yards and four touchdowns, Victor Cruz had three touchdowns and 118 receiving yards and Hakeem Nicks had 114 receiving yards.

On Monday night when the Giants lost 35-14 to the Lions in Detroit, I was disappointed because I had waited since Nov. 24 (Week 12) for a meaningful Giants game and they turned in an embarrassing effort. There wasn’t anything promosing about Monday night. Eli Manning looked like he was asked to learn sign language in Ben McAdoo’s offense and either he learned it incorrectly (unlikely) or his receivers didn’t care to learn it (very likely), the Giants’ receivers couldn’t hang on to passes, the offensive line left Eli exposed enough to nearly end his career and the hyped-up secondary looked as bad as any Giants secondary in recent years.

Monday night went as bad as anyone could have imagined for the Giants in the first game of the season. Calvin Johnson set the tone, the Giants’ offensive problems looked like a continuation of the preseason and the Lions walked into a win that not even Jim Caldwell could mess up. A year ago, we had the “Disaster in Dallas” to begin the 2013 season and on Monday night, we had the “Debacle in Detroit” to begin the 2014 season.

– Let’s start with Eli Manning because it’s up to him to make the 2014 Giants’ season not play out the way 2013 did. The problem with Eli’s success is that his success is tied directly to that of Ben McAdoo and his receivers. Eli (18-for-33, 163 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs) was far from his best and far from even mediocrity, but McAdoo, who was supposed to come here and make the Giants’ offense Packers East, was calling plays the way Kevin Gilbride would have, and Eli’s receivers, clearly lost with the new offense, were busy running wrong routes and dropping passes.

Eli looked ridiculous giving hand signals at the line rather than yelling “Omaha!” or telling everyone at home who is wearing the mic on the defense. It was almost as if Eli was being threatened with a 15-yard unsportsmanlike penalty for talking as he turned to receivers to give them index finger into hole signals, looking like he was a fourth grader who realized for the first time that he could do things with his hands to represent intercourse. And he looked lost trying to let Larry Donnell know where he was supposed to be on the line by using his hands to look like he was wringing out a wet towel and by touching his body all over the place as if he was trying to let a hitter and baserunner know that a hit-and-run is on.

Eli can’t do it by himself because no quarterback can, but things don’t seem like they are going to get better around him. The offensive line is bad and there’s no real help on the way. The Giants’ best receiver is a 21-year-old rookie, who has never really even practiced with the team, let alone played in a game or built any chemistry with Eli. And the offensive coordinator has never been an offensive coordinator before at any level. So let’s get to that offensive coordinator.

– Mike Tirico decided to chime in and take a shot at an offensive line-less and receiver-less Eli by hyping up Aaron Rodgers and saying how we should all be thankful Rodgers was born since he is so brilliant in the same offense Eli is trying to run. But Jon Gruden stepped in and shot down Tirico’s ridiculous praise for Rodgers by mentioning the obvious fact that “Rodgers has been in that system for years, Eli has been in this system for months.”

That system is the Packers’ or Mike McCarthy’s and now it’s Ben McAdoo’s, which is some form of those mixed with his own additions and modifications.

Ben McAdoo was hired on Jan. 14, which means he had 238 days until opening night to get the Giants’ offense set. The NFL schedule was released on April 23, which means the Giants knew for at least 138 days that they would be playing the Lions. That means for the last 138 days McAdoo has been thinking up his first-drive plays to use against the Lions. So what did the Giants run on their opening drive (trailing 7-0)?

First-and-10 at New York 20: Rashad Jennings left tackle to New York 18 for -2 yards.

Second-and-12 at New York 18: Rashad Jennings right tackle to New York 19 for 1 yard.

Third-and-11 at New York 19: Eli Manning pass incomplete short right to Jerrel Jernigan.

Run, run, pass intended to the fifth- or sixth-best offensive option to begin the season with a three-and-out? Are we sure Gilbride didn’t make a promise with Jerry Reese and Tom Coughlin that he would resign, but the Giants had to promise to use whatever three plays he wanted to begin the 2014 season? I thought we were going to get a taste of Aaron Rodgers and put an emphasis on the passing game in the 2014 NFL in which every rule change and adjustment to the game has been made to help the quarterback, receivers and passing in the league. But instead we got the same exact offense we were supposedly getting rid of.

In the third quarter, after giving up a field goal to trail 17-7, the Giants took over at their own 20 following a touchback. Here’s how McAdoo decided to orchestrate the ensuing drive:

First-and-10 at New York 20: Rashad Jennings up the middle to New York 20 for no gain.

Second-and-10 at New York 20: Rashad Jennings right tackle to New York 23 for 3 yards.

Third-and-7 at New York 23: Eli Manning pass short middle to Jerrel Jernigan to New York 26 for 3 yards.

Does that sequence look familiar?

In the fourth quarter with 4:39 left and the Lions leading 35-14 and the game out of reach, the Giants had the ball with a chance to get some garbage-time plays in and get some vital practice with their new offense against a non-practice and non-preseason opponent. Here’s how that drive went:

First-and-10 at New York 20: Eli Manning pass short right to Rashad Jennings to New York 35 for 15 yards.

First-and-10 at New York 35: Eli Manning pass short left to Rashad Jennings to New York 44 for 9 yards.

Second-and-1 at New York 44: Eli Manning pass incomplete deep right to Victor Cruz.

Third-and-1 at New York 44: Andre Williams left end to New York 44 for no gain.

Fourth-and-1 at New York 44: Andre Williams up the middle to New York 44 for no gain.

Eli Manning had 32 passes targeted at receivers. Here’s the breakdown of where those pass attempts went to:

Larry Donnell: 8 (24%)
Jerrel Jernigan: 7 (21%)
Victor Cruz: 6 (18%)
Rashad Jennings: 5 (15%)
Rueben Randle: 3 (9%)
Daniel Fells: 1 (3%)
Corey Washington: 1 (3%)
Andre Williams: 1 (3%)

Cruz, the team’s best receiver, was targeted just the third-most times and Rueben Randle, the team’s second-best receiver, was targeted the fifth-most times, four times less than Jernigan.

One game might not be enough for me to start asking to bring Kevin Gilbride, which would be the equivalent of me asking for the Yankees to bring A.J. Burnett or Nick Swisher or extend Mark Teixeira’s contract for five more years, but that’s all we have to go off of right now and McAdoo didn’t impress in his Giants debut.

– Victor Cruz caught two passes for 24 yards and was targeted six times. I believe five of those six times came after a rough first quarter for Manning when it was obvious that Cruz was upset and frustrated he wasn’t getting the ball. I was upset and frustrated too. Especially since Jerrel Jernigan was all of a sudden being thrown to as if he had become 2009 Steve Smith or 2011 Cruz. But as Manning started to go back to his trusted receiver, Cruz bobbled and dropped his passes, several of which were for potential big gains.

The Giants chose to pay Cruz (five years, $43 million) instead of Nicks and then decided not to pay Nicks at all after his 13-game, touchdown-less 2013 season, so he went to Indianapolis for cheap and signed a one-year, $3.975 million deal. Cruz is not a No. 1 receiver even if he is supposed to be. He is a No. 1 receiver the same way Chien-Ming Wang was an ace. He is a slot receiver, who put up big numbers because he was on the field with Nicks, who is a real No. 1. Monday night was a glimpse into life without a true No. 1 receiver to protect Cruz and he was awful.

– In the third quarter, the Lions, leading 17-7, started first-and-10 at their own 25 and Robert Ayers sacked Matthew Stafford for a loss of five yards and celebrated as if he was Jay Alford ending Tom Brady and the Patriots’ quest for perfection in Super Bowl XLII. Losing by 10 points and getting to the quarterback for the first time in the game in the third quarter and acting the way Ayers did was embarrassing. Two plays later, Golden Tate caught a 44-yard pass on third-and-11. For some reason, I didn’t see Ayers on camera acting as if he just doubled an 11 and got a 10 with $20,000 on the table following Tate’s big play.

I didn’t think anyone could one-up Ayers’ celebration, but on the same drive, just six plays after Ayers’ sack, Prince Amukamara was able to knock the ball out of Joseph Fauria’s hands in the end zone on second-and-Goal from the 9 to prevent a touchdown and then one-upped Ayers. Amukamara emphatically gave the incomplete sign as if he was signaling that the winning run had scored in the bottom of the ninth inning in Game 7 of the World even though Fauria had caught a 26-yard pass on second-and-13 from the Giants’ 35 just two plays earlier to put the Lions at the Giants’ 9.

– Calvin Johnson had seven catches for 164 yards and two touchdowns and it felt like way more than that. His first touchdown, a 67-yard wide-open reception, gave me flashbacks to the days of DeSean Jackson backpedaling and simultaneously laughing at the Giants’ secondary. Except this Giants’ secondary was supposed to be different. But in Tom Coughlin’s halftime spot with ESPN, he summed up the first half by saying, “We hung in there,” which showed the Giants haven’t changed. If the Yankees are using, “Our history. Your tradition,” then maybe Coughlin just gave the Giants their slogan for 2014. “The 2014 New York Giants: We hung in there.”

The problem is the Giants didn’t continue to “hang in there” after Coughlin offered that wisdom. The Giants were then outscored 13-0 in the third quarter and 21-7 in the second half on the way to their three-touchdown loss. “We hung in there” isn’t a phrase that breeds confidence let alone winning and the Giants did anything but “hang in” a game they allowed the Lions to go 10-for-15 on third down. To make matters worse here is how those successful third downs played out:

1. Third-and-9 at Detroit 33: 67-yard touchdown pass to Calvin Johnson.

2. Third-and-13 at New York 16: 16-yard touchdown pass to Calvin Johnson.

3. Third-and-3 at Detroit 38: 9-yard pass to Golden Tate.

4. Third-and-4 at New York 47: 24-yard pass to Calvin Johnson.

5. Third-and-11 at Detroit 24: 44-yard pass to Golden Tate.

6. Third-and-5 at New York 5: 5-yard touchdown run for Matthew Stafford.

7. Third-and-7 at Detroit 23: 22-yard pass to Calvin Johnson.

8. Third-and-5 at 50: 11-yard pass to Calvin Johnson.

9. Third-and-4 at New York 13: 10-yard pass to Golden Tate.

10. Third-and-3 at New York 37: 12-yard pass to Golden Tate.

Those third-down letdowns were the bad part of Giants football that still hasn’t changed and maybe never will, but it doesn’t look like the good part of Giants football is going to return soon to make up for it.

It’s almost impossible to remember that this team won the Super Bowl 31 months ago and it’s hard to remember that this team won seven games just last year since right now seven wins seems unfathomable. The Yankees barely got me to the Giants, and right now, I don’t see the Giants even getting me to the Rangers.

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Podcast: Ed Valentine

The Giants were embarrassed on Monday night in Detroit and this season looks like it might be headed the same way last season went.

New York Giants v Detroit Lions

Entering Monday night, it had been 41 weeks since the Giants last played a meaningful game back in Week 12 against Dallas with the NFC East on the line, and after waiting over nine months for Giants football, I wish the season still hadn’t started. The Giants turned in an embarrassing effort in their 35-14 loss to the Lions and it felt like a continuation of the 2013 season as if the 41 weeks never happened and Monday night in Detroit was just Week 18 of last season.

Ed Valentine of Big Blue View joined me to talk about the performance of Eli Manning and his receivers against the Lions, what will happen with Ben McAdoo’s offense and if this season is going to play out the same way last season did.

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My Christmas Wish List

I won’t be getting playoff football this year, so that means I will have to ask for some other things this Christmas.

When I put together my Christmas list for this year, I didn’t bother to ask for anything to do with the New York Football Giants. At 6-9, their season has been lost since their Week 12 loss to the Cowboys and this season marks the fourth time in five years the Giants won’t play in the postseason.

After reaching the playoffs in each of the first four years of Eli Manning’s career as the full-time starting quarterback (2005-08), the Giants’ lone playoff trip since their loss in the 2008 divisional round as the No. 1 seed was in 2011 when they won the Super Bowl. I’m very grateful for the two Super Bowls since 2007 and that Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin prevented Tom Brady and Bill Belichick from being 5-0 in the Super Bowl and football immortality as the best quarterback-coach combination in history. But at this time of the year with the Cowboys and Eagles playing for the NFC East title and the Bears, Packers, Panthers, Saints, Seahawks, 49ers, Cardinals, Patriots, Dolphins, Bengals, Ravens, Steelers, Colts, Broncos, Chiefs and Chargers all playing for something this Sunday, it’s not fun being on the outside looking in.

Yes, it’s another Week 17 of wondering what could have been, but I’m not going to let the Giants ruin Christmas since they already ruined October and November (the Yankees ruined September). And if I can’t have playoff football this year, which I can’t, then this is what I want.

Something That Resembles A Starting Rotation That Can Compete In the AL East
If it seems like I have asked for that before, it’s because I have. Back in 2010, I asked for the same exact thing after the Yankees lost out on Cliff Lee and I was staring at a potential rotation of CC Sabathia, Phil Hughes, A.J. Burnett, Ivan Nova and at the time no one else. (That’s right, Phil Hughes, coming off an 18-win season, was going to be the Yankees’ No. 2 starter.) Thankfully Bartolo Colon decided to get some “help” and Freddy Garcia reinvented himself and the Yankees won 97 games and the AL East before the heart of the order went missing in a five-game series loss to the Tigers in the ALDS.

So far this offseason the Yankees have signed Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann, Carlos Beltran and Brian Roberts and lost Robinson Cano to the Mariners. The November 2013 Yankees are better than the September 2013 Yankees were and are better in theory than the 2013 Yankees were ever going to be at their healthiest point. But the rotation is still a problem just like it was at this time last year and the year before that.

The best free-agent options for the rotation are Matt Garza, Ervin Santana, Ubaldo Jimenez, Bronson Arroyo, Paul Maholm and …. wait for it …. wait for it …. wait for it … A.J. Burnett! The only one of these six options I would be OK with would be Garza, but even then he’s going to command (and receive) a ridiculous contract in this market for someone who has a career .500 record (67-67), a 3.84 ERA and has started only 42 games over the last two years.

Brian Cashman said going into this winter that he was going to have to find 400 innings from somewhere and I don’t think the Yankees are going to sign one of the “top” free agents just because they are the best available right now like they would have in the past with Carl Pavano or Jaret Wright or Burnett. That means that “somewhere” will likely be from within the organization and some combination of the current favorites Michael Pineda, David Phelps and Adam Warren. Unless, the Yankees can give me the next thing on my list …

Cliff Lee
Yes, three years later I’m still asking for Cliff Lee. I don’t need to explain it. Just read this. But since Lee isn’t exactly realistic, I will ask for someone who is …

Masahiro Tanaka
I know nothing about Masahiro Tanaka other than from searching “Masahiro Tanaka” on YouTube and watching a video titled “Best of Mashahiro Tanaka” that is synced to what sounds like nearly four minutes of an instrumental version of a song by The Offspring. But I’m going to guess that the only knowledge most North American “experts” who talk about how good Tanaka is happens to be this same exact video. No one knows for sure how Tanaka’s Japanese success will translate to the majors and given the history of highly coveted Japanese pitchers coming to North America, there’s a better chance that Tanaka will be more like Daisuke Matsuzaka than Yu Darvish. But as long as he’s not Kei Igawa (I haven’t typed that name in so long), I’ll take him.

2013-14 Henrik Lundqvist To Be 2011-12 Henrik Lundqvist
Since signing his seven-year extension, Henrik Lundqvist is 2-4-2. I’m not sure if you want your franchise player, who you recently locked up through 2020-21 to be saying he “kind of expected” that a rookie backup would be starting in place of him for the second consecutive game and night. And after recording two wins and allowing just two goals combined in 48 hours, I’m not sure that Alain Vigneault is necessarily going to go back to Lundqvist over Cam Talbot on Friday night in Washington.

Lundqvist has admitted to over-anticipating plays and being jumpy and it has shown this season. While it’s hard to fault him for a five-goal loss to the Islanders on Friday night when you consider they were getting shorthanded breakaways and odd-man rushes left and right, he isn’t bailing out the team that way he used to. And because Lundqvist isn’t bailing out his team the way he used to, it brings me to the next thing I’m asking for …

A New Rangers Defense
I asked for this last because this is going to be the most unrealistic of them all. It would be like asking for Xbox One and PlayStation 4 this year.

Since 2008-09, the Rangers’ problem has been scoring goals, but now with Lundvist struggling and having a down year so far, preventing goals is even more of a problem. And if Lundqvist is going to be more human-like than King-like this season, the Rangers aren’t going anywhere because they don’t have the defense (especially with Marc Staal injured) many thought they did. Through the first 46 percent of the season, Lundqvist hasn’t been bailing out the incompetence of the Rangers defense the way he has through his entire career. But rather than focus on his entire career, let’s focus on since 2011-12 when the current Rangers defensive core started to become the foundation of the defense.

We all know that I don’t think the 2011-12 Rangers were worthy of the Eastern Conference’s No. 1 seed or as close as “two wins away from the Stanley Cup Final” as they technically were. They earned the top seed and won two series in Game 7 before losing the Devils in six because of Henrik Lundqvist. Not because of their offense and certainly not because of their defense. Lundqvist made everyone believe Dan Girardi was an All-Star and that Michael Del Zotto could be trusted in his own zone the same way Sidney Crosby has made everyone believe Chris Kunitz is some kind of superstar despite his career season-high in goals being 26 and now as a linemate of Number 87, he has 20 goals in just 39 games.

Prior to Lundqvist signing an extension, there was a worrying sense that overpaying Lundqvist would cost the Rangers a chance at re-signing Girardi this offseason. But right now I’m not sure anyone would want to sign Girardi. When he’s not falling down or giving the puck away, he’s busy scoring goals against his team, a stat which he must lead the league in by at least 15.

As for Del Zotto, it’s pretty obvious his time with the Rangers is dwindling. When the Rangers beat the Maple Leafs on Monday night at the Garden, I watched Del Zotto intently as the Rangers saluted from center ice and wondered if Del Zotto was thinking it could be one of the last times he would salute the MSG crowd. If it is, the Rangers will be a better team.

Merry Christmas!

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NFL Week 7 Picks

My picks season continues to mirror the New York Football Giants’ season and that means last week was another week that ended in disappointment.

Six weeks ago I was looking forward to Giants football as the Yankees’ season crawled to a painful end. I was hoping for the Giants (along with the Rangers) to take off a little of the edge left by the Yankees and carry me through the fall and holiday season and if I was lucky enough, carry me through the disgusting January weather and maybe even into February like they did in 2007 and 2011. Instead the Giants’ season ended along with the Yankees’ season at the end of the September and now it’s Week 7 and the Giants have 10 meaningless games left and it will be 10 1/2 months until they have anything other than spoiling another team’s season to play for.

Things have gotten gradually worse for the 2013 Giants since the six-turnover game to open the season and I should have just turned them off and never turned them back on after the first play of that game when Eli Manning threw an interception right to DeMarcus Ware. Like actually right to him. The phrase “right to” had never had as much meaning as it did then. But I didn’t turn them off. I watched Eli do the opposite of fourth-quarter magic in that game as if he were a magician asking their volunteer “Is this your card? No? OK. Is this your card? No? This one? This one? Umm … this one?” I kept watching when the team fell apart in the second half against the Broncos and when the offensive line underwent the embarrassment equivalent of being pantsed in the sixth-grade cafeteria. I watched the Chiefs defense have their way in Week 4 and watched Nick Vick (the lethal combination of Nick Foles and Michael Vick) do what the Seahawks’ Charvaris Whiteson (the combination of Charlie Whitehurst and Tavaris Jackson) did to the Giants two years ago. And then last Thursday I watched Eli throw an interception on his second and fifth throws of the game and then with a chance to redeem himself and possibly save the Giants’ season he threw a third pick trying to beat the two-minute warning for no reason in what was more failed fourth-quarter magic.

Six weeks and five losses ago, David Wilson said this about his own season: “I’m at the bottom now. Nowhere to go but up.” He was wrong about his game and if that quote were about the Giants, it would have also been wrong. The Giants have only gone down since the “Disaster in Dallas” and maybe this lost season is bottomless when it comes to possible ways of losing.

***

My picks season has mirrored the Giants’ season through six weeks and maybe I will never see .500 this season the way they might never see the win column.

Week 7 … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

Seattle -6.5 over ARIZONA
The only thing I know is that I can correctly pick the Thursday game.

New England -4.5 over NEW YORK JETS
The Saints learned that if you give Tom Brady the ball with 3:29 left and then with 2:24 left and then with 1:13 left, you will eventually lose. It doesn’t matter if he has no timeouts, no receivers or virtually no mathematical chance, he will make you pay.

The Jets lost to the winless Steelers at home in Week 6, leaving the Giants as the only winless team not from Jacksonville. But somewhere between being 3-3 and losing to the Patriots on the road in Week 2 and then losing to the Steelers at home, the Jets got their overconfident attitude back like the intolerable friend in your group that thinks he can get any girl. Here’s what Jets rookie defensive tackle had to say about Tom Brady as if he were part of the 2010 Jets:

“I’m not treating him like Superman. He’s Tom Brady; I’m Sheldon Richardson. He’s a name. He’s a figure, a franchise player. I’m trying to get after him, simple as that. No one really treats him like [Superman] around here. I think he’s the complete opposite of that.”

Brady is 18-4 against the Jets in his career (including five straight wins since the 2010 playoff game) and 1-0 against them with Richardson on the team. He’s 5-1 this season despite his leading receiver being Julian Edelman (real life) and led the Patriots to a nearly impossible game-winning drive against the undefeated Saints four days ago. Maybe he’s not Superman, since Clark Kent is Superman, but he’s more than a name and a figure.

San Diego -8 over JACKSONVILLE
The Jaguars were able to cover the four-touchdown spread againts the Broncos, but they still lost by 16 points and have yet to lose by less than double digits this season. That’s a trend I’m willing to follow even if it means needing Philip Rivers and the Chargers to continue it for me.

DETROIT -3 over Cincinnati
Last week the Bengals had to go to overtime to get by Thad Lewis and the Bills (possible band name like Jesse and the Rippers or Hot Daddy and the Monkey Puppets?) and they had to go to overtime because they let Thad Lewis lead a game-tying drive with 2:40 from the Buffalo 14 that ended with a 40-yard touchdown pass.

MIAMI -8 over Buffalo
The Dolphins were 3-0 and flying high before being trounced at the Superdome like every visiting team is and before losing a three-point game to the defending Super Bowl champs. The Dolphins are coming off their bye and looking to avoid losing further ground to the Patriots in the division and what better way to keep pace with the Patriots than to have Thad Lewis and the Bills in town?

WASHINGTON -1 over Chicago
A year ago the Redskins were all about RGIII and the pistol offense and the revival of football in the nation’s capital. Now the Redskins are all about RGIII’s sophomore slump and trying to avoid a team name change. It seems inevitable at this point that the Redskins are going to have to change their name with momentum heavily gaining against Dan Snyder and sports radio callers justifying “Redskins” as people with sun burns losing their battle.

I shouldn’t want the Redskins to win a game, but they’re 1-4 and the Giants are 0-6 and we need to clear out the bottom of the barrel in the league for Jadeveon Clowney. We need to narrow this thing down to the Giants and Jaguars and hope the Jaguars catch fire at some point. OK, maybe not fire and more like sparks or some semblance of heat and win a game or two or if we’re lucky three. OK, let’s keep it at one for now.

Dallas +2.5 over PHILADELPHIA
It’s disgusting to know that the NFC East winner is going to be the Cowboys or Eagles. (No, this isn’t a reverse jinx attempt to get the Giants back in the playoff picture. Or is it?) Either Tony Romo or Michael Vick or Nick Foles of Nick Vick will be playing in January while the Giants are reevaluating things and themselves like you would do after a drunken, sleep-deprived weekend that includes leaving your phone in a cab, your card at the bar and Dominos boxes all over your living room.

CAROLINA -6.5 over St. Louis
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Panthers fan or a Rams fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

ATLANTA -7 over Tampa Bay
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Falcons fan or a Buccaneers fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

San Francisco -5 over TENNESSEE
I initially picked the Titans to cover after they were able to keep it close and cover against the Seahawks at home last week. But then I realized when the 49ers win, they win by an average of 18.3 points and when they lose, they lose by an average of 15.3 points. So if I think they are going to win the game straight up, which I do, then math says they are going to win by more than five. And if I’m wrong, I have math to blame.

KANSAS CITY -6.5 over Houston
Last year, the Broncos had to worry about the Ravens and Patriots and Texans in the AFC. This year they definitely don’t have to worry about the Texans, don’t really have to worry about the Ravens and as of now, they don’t yet have to worry about the Patriots. The Broncos need to worry about the Kansas City Chiefs. The 6-0 Chiefs who have allowed a league-leading 65 points in six games and 93 less points than the Broncos have allowed. Yes, the Broncos have scored a league-leading 265 points and 113 more points than the Chiefs, but high-scoring offenses don’t win in the playoffs (just ask any of those first-round exit teams Peyton quarterbacked that we are going to get to momentarily) and we’ll get a taste of which team is really the best in the AFC in Weeks 11 and 13.

GREEN BAY -10 over Cleveland
Since their bye in Week 4, the Packers have destroyed the Lions in Lambeau and knocked off the Ravens in Baltimore. The Packers would appear to be putting it together and that coupled with the idea of needing Brandon Weeden to do enough to keep it close in Green Bay are why I’m willing to take the Packers to cover two possessions.

Baltimore +1.5 over PITTSBURGH
The Yankees-Red Sox of the NFL in that no matter what year it is, no matter what the rosters look like, these two teams will play close games and that’s why you’re always better off taking the points in these games. Let’s go back to when Joe Flacco became the starting quarterback of the Ravens in 2008 and see how these two-game season series have gone.

In 2012, the Ravens won 13-10 and the Steelers won 23-20. In 2011, the Ravens won 35-7 and 23-20. In 2010, the Ravens won 17-14 and the Steelers won 13-10. In 2009, the Ravens won 20-17 in overtime and the Steelers won 23-20. In 2008, the Steelers won 23-20 in overtime and  13-9.

That’s 10 games with eight of them being decided by three points, one being decided by four points and one being decided by 28 (the Steelers had seven turnovers, yes seven turnovers, in that loss). Forget picking the Ravens to cover, is there a prop bet that this game will be won by exactly three points?

Denver -7 over INDIANAPOLIS
Jim Irsay went and did what a Midwestern billionaire who owns an NFL team would do and opened his big mouth about not winning more than one Super Bowl in 11 postseason trips during Peyton Manning’s career with the Colts. Sure, it might have been a little out of line, but Irsay has a point, doesn’t he? The Colts went to two Super Bowls in 11 postseason trips with Peyton Manning, but lost their first playoff game seven times and were just 9-10 and also helped the Patriots build their early-2000s dynasty. (Thanks for that, Peyton!)

What if John Mara made the same statement about Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin one day? I think he would also have a case. Since 2005, the Giants have won two Super Bowls and are 8-3 in the playoffs, but they have three losses in their first playoff games (2005, 2006 and 2008) and have missed out on the playoffs in three of eight years and after this season they will have missed the playoffs in four of nine years. Don’t get me wrong, I am perfectly content with the two Super Bowl wins over the Patriots, but you can’t help but think what more the Giants could have done without the second-half collapses.

NEW YORK GIANTS -3.5 over Minnesota
The Giants are 0-6. The playoffs are out of the question and so is Jadeveon Clowney (I think). But this game might be one of the Giants’ only real chances at winning in 2013. At home against the 1-4 Vikings and Josh Freeman, who is trying to revitalize his career with a second chance in Minnesota. If the Giants can’t beat the Vikings at home then who are they going to beat? Here are their remaining games: Philadelphia, Oakland, Green Bay, Dallas, at Washington, at San Diego, Seattle, at Detroit and Washington. A loss to the Vikings will mean 0-7 and with each loss it will only get that much harder to win as players give up (well, those who haven’t already) and the pressure of winning a single game mounts.

Last week: 5-9-0
Season: 34-53-4

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NFL Week 6 Picks

I finally broke up with the Giants after their loss to the Eagles. But then I took them back just in time for their game against the Bears.

Breaking up with the Giants is hard to do. I deleted their number, unfriended them on Facebook, put all the memories they gave me in a box that I then labeled “JOKE” and have even avoided using the word “giant” in any context, choosing to go with “huge,” “enormous” and “mammoth” among others. But guess what? I let them back in my life! I know, I know! I’m an idiot and at midnight on Thursday night when they’re 0-6 and Eli Manning, Tom Coughlin and Justin Tuck are making excuses like a sophomore in high school whose English midterm is late again (no, that wasn’t me…) you can all tell me “I told you so.” But this morning, with the thought of being still in the division thanks to the Cowboys, it was the equivalent of seeing a few late-night texts from the Giants or seeing a request that “New York Giants wants to be your friend” waiting for me on Facebook and I couldn’t help but give them what is now their third chance this season. I know I’m stupid, but just shut up for a minute and let me explain.

The difference this time is I’m fully prepared for the Giants to get beat up by the Bears and run out of Soldier Field like a drunk Packers fan wearing a foam cheesehead with his entire body painted green screaming “Bears suck!” during a Bears-Packers game. I’m not going into this game thinking the Giants are going to win or that they even have a real chance to win. I’m going into the game hoping that they have a Lloyd Christmas-Mary Swanson-like small chance or even smaller to stay in the game until the fourth quarter and then maybe Eli Manning will find his missing fourth-quarter magic or maybe Jay Cutler will hand the Giants a win the way he has handed so many other teams wins in his career. You’re still not sold? Neither am I really.

***

Apparently as the Giants season goes, my picks go. Week 5 was another train wreck that proved that logic and reasoning is pointless when it comes to the 2013 NFL. On top of it all, anything you have seen or learned or figured out is worthless at the end of each week and completely irrelevant in picking the following week. It’s almost as if the movie 50 First Dates has become me making my NFL picks. And for as bad as that movie was, my picks have been worse.

Week 6 … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

New York Giants +7.5 over CHICAGO
This is the last time I will be picking the Giants. The absolute last time. This is it. It’s really it.

KANSAS CITY -8 over Oakland
Picking an Andy Reid-led team with Alex Smith as the starting quarterback (even if they are undefeated) this many times is sure to backfire at some point. But the Chiefs have won four of their five games by at least nine points and that’s good enough for me to pick against the Raiders on the road.

Philadelphia -1.5 over TAMPA BAY
It doesn’t matter if Michael Vick starts or Nick Foles starts or Nick Vick (the combination of the two that we saw against the Giants) starts against the Buccaneers. Any of those three options is better than Mike Glennon, who will be making his second career start following Josh Freeman’s release and the circus Greg Schiano created down in Tampa Bay. And if Glennon for some reason can’t play or is removed from the game, you know who his backup is? Dan Orlovsky, that’s who. The future is bright in Tampa Bay.

BALTIMORE +3 over Green Bay
I originally had Green Bay -3 in this game and because I switched it Green Bay is 100 percent going to cover. I have been down on the Ravens through five weeks, but their 26-23 win in Miami last week has made me a believer for at least Week 6 in the Ravens. And I don’t really trust the Packers away from home.

MINNESOTA -2.5 over Carolina
Need a good laugh? Here’s what I said about the Panthers last week:

I know Bill Parcells said, “You are what your record says you are,” and the Panthers are 1-2, but they are good.

Done laughing?

The Panthers repaid my praise for them by getting embarrassed by the Cardinals. (The Cardinals!) A 22-6 loss in a game that featured seven combined turnovers (Carolina had four and Arizona had three), including three picks for both Cam Newton and Carson Palmer.

Meanwhile the Vikings are coming off their bye and their first and season-saving win against the Steelers in London.

HOUSTON -7.5 over St. Louis
The Rams did manage to beat the Jaguars by two touchdowns to cover their 11.5-point spread, but the Jaguars were in the game for far too long and did lead for enough time that it made me think the Jaguars wouldn’t finish the season 0-16 and made me realize just how bad the 2008 Lions were to finish that season 0-16.

NEW YORK JETS -2.5 over Pittsburgh
I expected the J-E-T-S to get blown out of the Georgia Dome on Monday Night Football and instead they put together a 2011 Giants-esque game-winning drive to improve to 3-2 on the season. The Giants are 0-5 on the year, the Yankees’ season ended 11 days ago and in the Rangers’ most recent game they were run out of San Jose in a 9-2 loss. Maybe me picking the Jets this week will restore some order in the New York sports world.

Cincinnati -7.5 over BUFFALO
Last week someone named Jeff Tuel took over for an injured E.J. Manuel in the Bills’ 37-24 home loss to the Browns (who also lost their starter Brian Hoyer to a torn ACL and had to replace him with former start Brandon Weeden) on Thursday Night Football. (How great has Thursday Night Football for 17 weeks worked out?) How bad was Tuel? Bad enough that the Bills have signed someone named Thad Lewis off their practice squad to start over Tuel this week. Bills head coach Doug Marrone said, “Thad gives us the best chance to win,” but he’s wrong. He’s not wrong that Lewis is better than Tuel because he might be, though that’s not saying much. He’s wrong that the Bills have a chance to win this game. They don’t. Now we just need Lewis to be bad enough that the Bengals can cover.

SEATTLE -13.5 over Tennessee
Ryan Fitzpatrick finally gets a chance to start for the Titans and he gets the then-5-0 Chiefs (now 6-0) and the 4-1 Seahawks (soon to be 5-1). Sometimes things aren’t fair for Harvard graduates who get $59 million contracts with $24 million of guaranteed money.

DENVER -27 over Jacksonville
At no point would I feel nervous about taking the Broncos in this game. The Broncos beat the defending Super Bowl champions by 22 points in Week 1 and beat the Eagles by 32 points in Week 4. You don’t think they can beat the winless Jaguars by four touchdowns? The Rams managed to beat the Jaguars by two touchdowns last week.

SAN FRANCISCO -11.5 over Arizona
The Cardinals are on a mission to destroy my picks as best they can this season and so far they are succeeding. I can’t help that I want to pick against Carson Palmer every possible chance I get. Is that so wrong?

Since the 49ers were embarrassed in Seattle and Indianapolis in back-to-back weeks in Weeks 2 and 3, they are 2-0 and have outscored their opponents (St. Louis and Houston) 69-14. The NFC favorite that was supposed to go back to the Super Bowl this season is back after their two-week hiatus and now they need to put an end to the pesky, pick-destroying Cardinals.

New Orleans +1.5 over NEW ENGLAND
The Saints proved my whole theory about them being a different team outside the Superdome wrong with a win on the road at Soldier Field. But maybe that theory was only good for Saints teams of the past? Maybe the 2013 Saints are capable of winning road games against worthy opponents? Their two-point win over the Buccaneers said they weren’t, but now their eight-point win over the Bears says they are.

The difference in New Orleans is with Rob Ryan’s defense, which hasn’t allowed more than 18 points in a game this season (17, 14, 7, 17 and 18). In the past the Saints weren’t worried about giving up points knowing they could outscore any team in the league, especially at home, but now the Saints (at least through five games) appear to be a well-balanced team and that’s bad news for the rest of the NFC.

Washington +6.5 over DALLAS
I was nervous that the Cowboys were going to stop the 2013 Broncos train in the final minutes on Sunday, but Tony Romo put to rest my fears with a Tony Romo game-ending interception to keep the Giants mathematically involved in the NFC East despite having no wins. Now the Redskins are coming to the Big D with a chance to take over the division lead with a win and an Eagles loss. Everyone keeps talking about how the NFC East will be won by an 8-8 team or possibly even a 7-9 team. If it’s possible I’m pulling for a 6-10 team to come out of the East. The scary thing is the Giants would have to play .545 football the rest of the way and go 6-5 just to finish 6-10 at this point. Has anyone told Antrel Rolle this?

Indianapolis -2.5 over SAN DIEGO
I keep picking against the Colts and they keep making me pay. Thankfully, I jumped off the Chargers undefeated covering streak in time for their 10-point loss to the Raiders last week.

Last week: 5-9-0
Season: 29-44-4

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