Sam Bradford – Keefe To The City

Oct 15, 2015

NFL Week 6 Picks

I was due for a clunker eventually and it came last week. Luckily, I still have that solid cushion.

I can’t believe it’s already Week 6 of the NFL season and that’s it’s freezing in New York and that the Giants might be able to go on a run we haven’t seen since their pre-2012 collapse and that the Mets are in the NLCS and making me hate baseball more than I thought was possible after I left Yankee Stadium following the wild-card game loss. But it’s mid-October and the season is starting to take shape and that means the perception of each team has enough of a sample size to get a real feel when it comes to the picks.

I was due for a clunker eventually and it came last week with a 5-8-1 disappointment. Luckily, my Week 4 performance gave me enough of a cushion to take some hits like that. But the cushion isn’t big enough for it to continue, so it’s time to get back on track in Week 6.

(Home team in caps)

Atlanta -3 over NEW ORLEANS
This has trap game written all over, but I’m going to have to get trapped to lose. The Superdome Saints are no more and while these teams always play tight games, which should lead me to take the points, I’m very close to putting the Saints in the

NEW YORK JETS -7 over Washington
I really thought we were going to get the undefeated Jets against the undefeated Patriots in Week 7 this season to go with the memorable Monday Night Football matchup of the two teams from the 2010 season. But the Jets ruined that when they lost to the Eagles, which also didn’t help the Giants. The Patriots have kept up their end of the bargain and they are going to do it this week as well in Indianapolis, so it’s up to the Jets this week to make it the 4-1 Jets against the 5-0 Patriots in Week 7. I have faith in the Todd Bowles Jets coming off a bye week against a Redskins that I need out of the NFC East race.

Arizona -5 over PITTSBURGH
I’m rooting for the Cardinals after they missed the playoffs two years ago with a 10-6 record while the 8-7-1 Packers got in as the NFC North champion and then had an 11-5 season last year only to have a third-string quarterback start their ROAD playoff game against the 7-8-1 Panthers. The Cardinals have a long way to go this season relying on 35-year-old Carson Palmer to stay healthy coming off a torn ACL and for 35-year-old Larry Fitzgerald to keep playing like it’s 10 years ago. The Cardinals already watched Andre Ellington miss a month and had Chris Johnson turn back the clock in his absence and they’re going to need to catch some breaks with health and performance to have a better ending in 2015 than they did in 2013 and 2014.

MINNESOTA -3 over Kansas City
I really like this Vikings team and it’s not because my girlfriend is a Vikings fan and forces me to root for them in exchange for being allowed to sleep in the bed. They are a very underrated team giving only three points at home coming off a bye and playing the 1-4 Chiefs team that has lost four straight and is one win from watching their season end with 10 games left to play. The only thing holding the Vikings back is either the decision of Mike Zimmer or Norv Turner to not let Teddy Bridgewater throw the ball more. It’s time to realize that Adrian Peterson isn’t going to carry the team the way he did in 2012 and if the Vikings want to win one of the two wild-card sports in the NFC, they’re going to need to let Bridgewater evolve this season as more than a game manager.

Cincinnati -3 over BUFFALO
OK, I’m breaking my rule about staying away from the B’s (the Bengals, Bears and Browns) this week. But in the fine print of that rule it says: “Void if EJ Manuel is the starting quarterback of the opposing team.” Well, EJ Manuel is starting for the Bills this week and that means it’s time to jump on the Bengals bandwagon. I plan on only staying for a week.

Chicago +4 over DETROIT
Two teams that should be better than they are, but aren’t. That’s been the story for these NFC North rivals for a long time now and with John Fox and Jim Caldwell as the head coaches of the two teams, I don’t expect that to change anytime soon. It will probably be a sloppy game with a lot of turnovers and a lot of undisciplined penalties and it’s for that reason that I’m taking the points.

Denver -4 over CLEVELAND
I’m scared of this one. I’m scared of what has happened to Peyton Manning. I actually went on YouTube this week to look back at Peyton highlights from his days on the Colts just to remember how he used to throw the ball and how good he used to be. Sure, his best statistical season came with the Broncos, but it was with the Colts when Peyton could still throw the ball with some zip and still throw the deep ball and still get the ball to have a tight spiral. (This led me to watching the highlights from the Colts’ 2006 AFC Championship Game comeback over the Patriots, which was magical.) I don’t have a lot of confidence in Peyton being able to cover barely-a-field-goal spread anymore, and that is scary, but I can’t willingly pick Josh McCown against the Broncos’ defense, which has become the face of the the team.

Houston +3 over JACKSONVILLE
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Texans fan or a Jaguars fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Thank about that.

Miami +3 over TENNESSEE
The Dolphins are bad, but they’re not “Getting 3 at Tennessee” bad. There are maybe one or two, possibly three teams in the NFL that are that bad and the Titans aren’t one of them.

SEATTLE -7 over Carolina
I think the Panthers are frauds. There I said it. They might be 4-0 and coming off a bye, but their four wins were against Jacksonville, Houston, New Orleans and Tampa Bay. Now they are heading to Seattle and to the toughest place to play in not only the NFL, but in all of the major sports, and they have to play a 2-3 Seahawks team coming off a devastating overtime loss in Cincinnati where they blew a 17-point lead. The Panthers being part of the undefeated conversation ends this weekend.

GREEN BAY -10 over San Diego
The Packers are going to be a double-digit favorite at home for the rest of the season the way they probably should have been all season, and while it’s never easy covering two-possession spreads, the Packers at Lambeau are as good as it gets when it comes to doing so. I actually feel like this line is a little low and time is running out on taking advantage of getting the Packers at 10 points or less.

SAN FRANCISCO +3 over Baltimore
Two-plus years ago this was the Super Bowl. Now it’s a joke. The 49ers are in a rebuilding phase and the Ravens are stuck in some weird phase that I don’t even know what to call it. I guess you can call it “they suck” because that’s the way to classify teams that are supposed to be good and aren’t and aren’t rebuilding and don’t really seem to have a plan in place. The Ravens aren’t supposed to be 1-4 right now (they’re actually supposed to be 0-5 if not for Josh Scobee) and I saw them being picked as potential Super Bowl champions this year. But here they are playing for their season in Week 6. Let’s hope it ends.

New England -10 over INDIANAPOLIS
I was extremely upset with myself for not investing more financially in the Patriots against the Cowboys. This time, I won’t make that mistake. The Colts are a “bad good” team and with Andrew Luck hurting and incapable of beating the Patriots, I’m expecting a double-digit win in this one.

New York Giants +3.5 over PHILADELPHIA
Everyone is talking about the Giants’ schedule for their next four games and how they have a chance to be 7-2 heading into their Week 9 game against the Patriots and have a commanding lead in the NFC East. The problem is this is the Giants we are talking about. The New York Football Giants. The team that is known for not making it easy and not being able to live up to expectations and regular-season collapses. This game isn’t going be easy even with Sam Bradford playing quarterback and DeMarco Murray still an unknown and it’s likely to be the same close game nearly every NFC East Game. And with that, I have to take the Giants.

Last week: 5-8-1
Season: 41-33-3

Blogs • Giants

Sep 11, 2014

NFL Week 2 Picks

The Giants face an “almost must-win game” in Week 2 against the Cardinals, but they aren’t the only team in that position this week.

Week 2 is dangerous. The only thing you know about every team in the league is one game of information and there’s a good chance that what you learned about each team in 60 minutes of football isn’t an accurate assessment of who that team really is or is going to be. Unless that team is the New York Football Giants.

Every concern, issue, problem, question mark and unknown raised about the 2014 Giants in the offseason and preseason was on display in their 21-points loss to the Lions and troubling part is that they aren’t going to be fixed anytime soon. I highly doubt that after months of trying to learn the new offense that they are all of a sudden going to have learned it and be magically clicking less than six full days after there was reason to celebrate when they would run a play successfully or when a receiver would catch a pass for positive yards.

Here is how I started my 2013 Weeks 2 Picks (and also apparently the way I started my 2012 Week 2 Picks):

Can you have a must-win game in Week 2? Yes, you can because the Giants do.

(I opened my 2012 NFL Week 2 Picks with that same question. I’m hoping I won’t have to use it in 2014.)

And like in The Departed when Mr. French tells Billy after fighting the cranberry-juice ordering guy (he is actually listed as Well-Dressed Scumbag At Bar in the script I used to find the exact quote), “That’s not quite a guy you can’t hit, but it’s almost a guy you cant hit,” the Giants’ Week 2 game against the Cardinals isn’t quite a must-win game, but it’s almost a must-win game. But the Giants aren’t alone in playing an “almost must-win game” in Week 2. So let’s get to the Week 2 picks.

(Home team in caps)

Pittsburgh +2.5 over BALTIMORE
It’s a good thing that with all the negative PR surrounding the NFL this week that they have an actual game with Thursday Night Football for people to talk about and get their attention back on the field. Wait, what’s that? Oh the team playing in and hosting the Thursday game is the team at the center of the league’s problems? That’s some unfortunate timing for Roger Goodell and the NFL.

When it comes to Ravens-Steelers, it’s usually easy to figure out what to do, so I will just add to what I always say before every Ravens-Steelers game.

In 2013, the Steelers won 19-16 and the Ravens won 22-20. In 2012, the Ravens won 13-10 and the Steelers won 23-20. In 2011, the Ravens won 35-7 and 23-20. In 2010, the Ravens won 17-14 and the Steelers won 13-10. In 2009, the Ravens won 20-17 in overtime and the Steelers won 23-20. In 2008, the Steelers won 23-20 in overtime and 13-9.

That’s 12 games with 10 of them being decided by three points, one being decided by four points and one being decided by 28 (the Steelers had seven turnovers, yes seven turnovers, in that loss). Forget picking the Ravens to cover, is there a prop bet that this game will be won by exactly three points?

This game will be decided by three points. And when you know that, how can you not take the points?

Detroit +2.5 over CAROLINA
The Lions’ 35-14 win over the Giants could have probably been 56-0 if the Lions didn’t play Lions football and have several brain farts and commit stupid penalties along the way. But even though there’s a new coaching regime in Detroit, the Lions proved on Monday night that they are still the same old Lions and at any moment they will shoot themselves in the foot and turn a sure-thing into a close thing.

Miami -1 over BUFFALO
The Bills upset the Bears on the road as seven-point underdogs in Week 1, put a massive dent into every survivor pool in the world and were sold to Terry Pegula, the owner of the Sabres, who is obviously going to keep the team in Buffalo. This week has been the best week for Bills fans in over 20 years, but as a franchise and a fan base, good times can’t be sustained in Buffalo.

The Dolphins cost me my New England -5 pick last week, but if I have to take a loss on a pick, I’m happy to take one if it means a loss for the Patriots. Prior to the start of Week 1, you would have thought it was 2004 with the way the Patriots were being picked to win the Super Bowl this year. But after the Dolphins exposed the Patriots’ offensive line as possibly worse than the Giants’ offensive line, and picked apart the Patriots’ so-called revamped defense, it doesn’t seem like the glory days are returning to New England with their personnel.

Jacksonville +5.5 over WASHINGTON
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Jaguars fan or a Redskins fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

TENNESSEE -3.5 over Dallas
After the 1:00 games ended on Sunday and my parlays and teasers had been destroyed and the Yankees had lost their second game in three days in which they didn’t allow an earned run, Tony Romo stepped in to save my Sunday with a season-opening three-interception game.

When I picked San Francisco -5 over Dallas last week, I said:

If you saw the Cowboys roster and it was listed as the roster for “Team X” and Team X didn’t happen to be a national team with a heavy gambling presence, this line would be a lot higher than 5 for one of the NFL’s elite teams on the road against a team that’s headed for a six- or seven-win season.

Now take that and apply it to this week. If Vegas thinks that the Cowboys as the most nationally-followed team with the biggest fan base and most money wagered on their games are 3.5-points underdogs in Tennessee, what are the Cowboys really supposed to be?

NEW YORK GIANTS +2.5 over Arizona
If I could believe in Santa Claus and the Easter Bunny and the Tooth Fairy and that the 2014 Yankees can win 16 of their 19 remaining games and make the playoffs, then I can talk myself into believing that the Giants’ offense, which looked like 11 guys who met five minutes before the game on Monday night, can turn it around for Week 2.

OK, I understand that the Giants’ offense is likely going to be a disaster again this week and that it’s a “work in progress” and that there really isn’t a home-field advantage at MetLife and if anything the Giants play worse at home, but the Giants need to win this game. And as long as Carson Palmer is the opposing quarterback, it might not matter that the Giants’ receivers seem to know the new offense as well as I know how to cook chicken or … well … anything.

MINNESOTA +3.5 over New England
My girlfriend is a Vikings fan and all week I have let her know the important position her team is in. I’m not talking about the Vikings going 2-0 and being at least tied for first place in the NFC North through Week 2. I’m talking about the chance to drop the Patriots to 0-2, a place they haven’t been since 2001 (they actually started that season 1-3, but did win the Super Bowl), put Boston into a state of panic after the city was without a baseball season this summer and put the bet every overconfident Patriots fan made on the Patriots having over 11 wins this seasons on life alert.

If Knowshon Moreno could tear up the Patriots for 134 yards on 24 carries (5.6 yards per carry), what is Adrian Peterson capable of against that defense? I’m getting a little too happy thinking about it.

New Orleans -6.5 over CLEVELAND
I never, ever, ever, ever pick or trust the Saints on the road. The Outside the Superdome Saints can’t be trusted. But there is one circumstance when they can be. That circumstance is when they are playing in Cleveland and Josh Gordon is suspended and the availability of Jordan Cameron and Ben Tate is unknown.

CINCINNATI -5 over Atlanta
Atlanta made me look good last week by not only covering against the Saints, but by beating them in overtime. Unfortunately the Bengals also made me look good by covering and beating the Ravens on the road, and now the Bengals return home where they went 8-0 last year and won those eight games by an average of 17.6 points. The Bengals haven’t lost at home since Dec. 9, 2012 in Week 14 and it was a one-point (20-19) loss to the Cowboys. Could Paul Brown Stadium be turning into the Superdome?

TAMPA BAY -6 over St. Louis
After losing to a Cam Newton-less Panthers team in Week 1, there are a lot of open seats on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers bandwagon as it gives us a preview into what Yankee Stadium will look like in 2015. The Buccaneers now get a Sam Bradford-less Rams team in Week 2 before heading on the road for three straights week to Atlanta, Pittsburgh and New Orleans. If the Buccaneers can’t win a convincing game against the 2014 Rams, who were run out of their own building by the Vikings, then their 2014 is going to go the way 2013 went.

SAN DIEGO +6 over Seattle
I have thought about this game more than any other game this week and after going over everything, I have narrowed all the information down to two basic questions:

1. Do I want to get burned by the Super Bowl champion Seahawks and the best defense in the league for the second time in as many weeks?

2. Do I want to trust that Philip Rivers can keep it close against and possibly even beat the Super Bowl champion Seahawks and the best defense in the league?

And when I write the two questions out, it’s easy for me to see that . If I lose this game taking the best team in football coming off a 20-point win against the so-called “best” quarterback in the league on 10 days rest, I can deal with it. But what I can’t deal with is if I take the Chargers and then watch the Seahawks do what they did to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers on opening night.

Houston -3 over OAKLAND
Oakland is playing for the first overall pick at the 2015 NFL Draft and after having watched Draft Day this week, I can definitely see the Raiders making the same decisions Sonny Weaver Jr. made if he had never eventually gotten his first-round picks back for the next three years back.

GREEN BAY -8.5 over New York Jets
No one seems to know what checkpoint Rex Ryan needs to reach to be the Jets head coach in 2015, whether it’s a .500 season or a winning season or reaching the playoffs or winning a playoff game, but watching Ryan celebrate a Chris Ivory 71-yard touchdown run against the lowly Raiders as if he just received word he’s going to be brought back for next season wasn’t a good look for Rex. It’s the Raiders. The Raiders! They started a rookie quarterback making his NFL debut and helped him out with 25 rushing yards. That’s 25 rushing yards on 15 carries in a 60-minute game!

When I did the Jets preseason podcast with my friend and most optimistic Jets fan Tim Duff, we talked about the Jets’ need to beat the Raiders before the six-week gauntlet from Weeks 2-7 that will decide their season. The Jets took care of business against in Week 1, but now the gauntlet begins and it begins in Green Bay where a healthy Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are looking to bounce back after their season-opening rout at the hands of the Seahawks and avoid falling to 0-2 and Green Bay is where Duff will be, in his Sheldon Richardson jersey likely getting ridiculed and abused by Packers fans. I’m looking forward to my next podcast with Duff following the Jets-Packers game because I know it’s going to have a much different tone than it did before Week 1 when he was taking shots at the Giants and glowing over the phone with optimism about the Jets.

DENVER -13 over Kansas City
Last year I saw “good value” in taking the 9-0 Chiefs’ money line against the 8-1 Broncos in Denver in Week 11. I was at MSG for Rangers-Kings checking my phone for score updates and still felt confident in the bet despite trailing 17-10 at halftime. But eventually, the Broncos pulled away, winning 27-17 and covering the 7.5-point line.

When the teams met two weeks later in Kansas City, I once again saw “good value” in taking the money line of the 9-2 Chiefs over the 10-1 Broncos at home where the Chiefs had only one loss, which came the week prior against the Chargers on a game-winning touchdown with 31 seconds left. The Broncos won again, this time 35-28, and covered again.

The lesson I learned: Don’t trust Alex Smith and Andy Reid against Peyton Manning.

Chicago +7 over SAN FRANCISCO
The Bears are in a bad spot. Not only are they playing the 49ers this week, but six of their next eight games are on the road in tough places: San Francisco, New York (Jets), Carolina, Atlanta, New England and Green Bay. No one saw a Week 1 loss at home to the Bills coming for the Bears and that includes Bills fans. It was a terrible teaser-killing loss and one the Bears couldn’t afford to give away playing in the best division in the league and with their challenging schedule. Had the Bears blown out the Bills and covered their 7-point spread like most assumed, this line in San Francisco would be somewhere around 3.5-5, but instead it’s 7, and 7 seems too high for a 49ers team that suffered devastating secondary injuries. Did I just take Jay Cutler on Sunday Night Football against one of the league’s elite teams in a game in which they will open their new stadium? I probably won’t regret this decision …

INDIANAPOLIS -3 over Philadelphia
Back-to-back primetime spots for Andrew Luck. Earlier this week, Mike Francesa said Luck “is about to become the best player in the league” and that might be true, which means a lot more primetime for Luck for a long, long time.

The Giants’ best chance (and possibly only chance) at reaching the postseason is going to come by winning the division. (Yes, I’m talking Giants’ postseason chances three days after a 21-point in which their offense and offensive coordinator looked like 12 guys who all spoke 12 different languages.) And if the Giants are going to stay in the hunt, they are going to need the rest of the NFC East to be mediocre as well. The Cowboys and Redskins proved they are ready to fight for an 8-8 or 9-7 playoff berth with their Week 1 performances and the Eagles looked like they would happily join in as well before their 34-point second-half outburst against the Jaguars. The only thing standing in the way of the Giants and meaningful late-season football and a potential playoff berth they don’t deserve is if the Eagles don’t run away with the division.

Last week: 8-8-0

Blogs • Giants • NFL

Dec 18, 2013

NFL Week 16 Picks

The Giants’ season has been over for a month, but the picks season still has 43 games to go.

It’s feel like the NFL season has already ended to me and that’s because the Giants haven’t played a meaningful game sine their Week 12 loss to the Cowboys a month ago. Now I’m stuck looking at an under-.500 picks season, there’s no fantasy football left to be played and the amount of games available to wager on will start to dwindle as teams lock up playoff berth and home-field advantage or mail it in for the last two weeks.

With Christmas Eve, Christmas and New Year’s Eve all in the next 13 days, football takes a backseat to the holiday season. But once New Year’s ends, football is back with Wild-Card Weekend and that’s when I lean heavily on football to get through the frigid January weather in the northeast. (Thankfully this year we have the Winter Olympics and therefore Olympic hockey to get through the February weather.)

But before I can even start to think about playoff football, I have to finish strong here in the last two weeks of the regular season with my picks. I’m currently 101-113-9 and 43 games left in the season, including playoffs, I have to finish at least 28-15 to finish over .500 for the season. It’s not going to be easy, but I have a 10-5-1 Week 15 to build off of.

Miami -3 over BUFFALO
It’s Week 16 and there is a lot on the line. Out of the 16 games, 13 of them have playoff implications with five divisions and eight playoffs spots still available. One of those games is this one because if the Dolphins beat the Bills and the Patriots lose to the Ravens, the Dolphins will be one game back of the Patriots with one to play. Sure, the Patriots play the Bills next week and will win that game and the Dolphins really don’t have a chance to win the AFC East (this is half the truth and half a reverse jinx attempt), but let me at least believe for a week, Football Gods?

CAROLINA -3.5 over New Orleans
The Saints have put themselves in a bad spot. If the NFC playoffs were to go through New Orleans, the Saints would easily be the NFC’s representative in the Super Bowl. But because of the Saints’ 3-4 road record (they are 7-0 at home) with brutal losses to the Patriots, Jets and Rams, the Saints are now playing for the NFC South title in Carolina. If this game were at the Superdome, I would be all about the Saints like always. But on the road, I’m going against them … like always.

Dallas -3 over WASHINGTON
Come on, this one is easy. There’s no doubt in my mind that the Cowboys will go to D.C. and walk all over the Redskins to make the Week 17 Cowboys-Eagles game in Dallas the NFC East Championship Game. Every year the Cowboys find themselves playing in a win-or-go-home situation in Week 17 and this year will be no different.

ST. LOUIS -4.5 over Tampa Bay
Did you know the Rams have more wins (6) than the Giants (5)? Sure, two of those wins came against Jacksonville and Houston, but the Rams did beat Arizona (9-5), Indianapolis (9-5), Chicago (8-6) and New Orleans (10-4). No, the Rams wouldn’t have been a playoff team if Sam Bradford didn’t get hurt considering they play in the same division as Seattle and San Francisco, but they are at least on the right track for the future, which is more than you can say about the New York Football Giants.

Cleveland +2 over NEW YORK JETS
You know who else has more wins the Giants? The Jets, that’s who. The Jets, who went weeks without throwing for a touchdown have more wins than a team just 23 months removed from winning the Super Bowl and a little over a year removed from looking like they could win the NFC East and possibly even have a first-round bye. No, things haven’t flipped in the New York football landscape (a terrible landscape to be a part of) and the Giants are still king, but it’s never a good look to finish a season worse than the Jets. Let’s go Browns!

KANSAS CITY -7 over Indianapolis
Here are the points against the Chiefs in their first nine games, which were all wins: 2, 16, 16, 7, 17, 7, 16, 17, 13. And here are the points aginst the Chiegs in their last five games: 27, 41, 35, 10, 31. I’m not sure what has happened to the Chiefs’ defense since their first loss of the season back in Week 11, but when the Raiders are putting up 31 on you at home it’s never good. Knowing that, I would normally shy away from the picking for the Chiefs to cover a touchdown at home, but this is the Colts we’re talking about and no playoff team has the ability to get run out of a building on the road like the Colts.

Minnesota +8 over CINCINNATI
I originally had the Bengals to cover here, but I thought more about it and the Vikings have covered for me so many times this year that I can’t turn my back on them now. (And my girlfriend, a Vikings fan, would probably give me a glare and not talk to me for at least 20 minutes upon finding out I picked against her Vikings.)

Denver -10.5 over HOUSTON
The same week in which reports come out that the Texans passed on Peyton Manning, Peyton returns to Reliant Stadium where he tormented the Texans for years. The last thing you want to do is pick against Peyton in a dome with the single-season touchdown record and the AFC’s No. 1 overall seed on the line. Maybe he will choke in January and the Broncos will lose in the divisional round, but when it comes to the regular season, Peyton Manning knows how to get the job done.

Tennessee -4.5 over JACKSONVILLE
There it is! It’s that Game of the Week …

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Titans or Jaguars fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

SEATTLE -11 over Arizona
Carson Palmer in Seattle. Carson Palmer in Seattle. Carson Palmer in Seattle.

DETROIT -9.5 over New York Giants
I’m not sure what line would make me feel uncomfortable picking against the Giants right now, but 9.5 in Detroit certainly isn’t it. Maybe if this line were -13.5 or higher I would start to think twice about it, but even then, this Giants team has already started thinking about the Monday after Week 17 and a desperate Lions team at home only makes matters worse.

Oakland +10 over SAN DIEGO
I am always big on the Raiders covering against the Chargers and usually the line is a lot lower than 10. The Chargers have proven to be a December disaster in recent years and now that they have played themselves into an unlikely-but-still-possible position for the playoffs, I’m thinking the Raiders’ money line isn’t a bad decision here either.

GREEN BAY -2 over Pittsburgh
I have a feeling we are going to be looking at the NFC North being decided in Chicago next week between the Bears and Packers. You just know the Packers are going to win and then Aaron Rodgers will be back in Week 17 to face the Bears. That’s just how things happen. It’s what the Football Gods want.

BALTIMORE -2 over New England
It’s very weird to not see the “x” next to New England in the standings entering Week 16 to represent the Patriots’ clinched playoff berth. It’s even weirder not to see the “y” next to the “x” showing that the Patriots have also clinched the AFC East with two weeks left. The Patriots aren’t used to playing meaningful late-December games and now they will have to try and clinch the division on the road against the defending champions, who seem to pull off a different miracle each week.

Chicago +3 over PHILADELPHIA
Unfortunately, next week in Dallas, either the Cowboys or Eagles have to win. And one of those teams has to win the NFC East and make the playoffs. But that’s next week. This week it’s still easy to decide who to root against when it comes to an Eagles game.

SAN FRANCISCO -13 over Atlanta
This game would have been in every 10-point teaser this weekend if it weren’t Monday Night Football. But I can’t imagine a lot of people will want to create a 10-point teaser over two days and instead will end up taking the 49ers -13 by themselves on Monday night. That means this line isn’t going to stay at -13 for long and I am thankful it was there when I wrote this.

Last week: 10-5-1
Season: 101-113-9

Blogs • Giants • NFL

Sep 19, 2013

NFL Week 3 Picks

It’s a busy week and that means a quick rundown for the Week 3 picks.

It’s a busy week, so let’s keep it short and sweet.

Week 3 … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

PHILADELPHIA -3.5 over Kansas City
If Chip Kelly knew how to manage the clock in the NFL then the Eagles could be 2-0 with a chance to beat Andy Reid in his homecoming to be the best team in the NFC East.

BALTIMORE +2.5 over Houston

San Diego +3 over TENNESSEE
It’s the Must-Not Watch Game of the Week, so … Somewhere someone who isn’t a Chargers fan or a Titans fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

St. Louis +3.5 over DALLAS
Are the Rams a team on the rise after their 7-9 season last year and impressive 4-1-1 record in the NFC West? Or are they just the usual Sam Bradford Rams? Even if they are only the Sam Bradford Rams, that should be good enough in Dallas against a Cowboys team that barely won a game in which their unnamed opponent turned the ball over six times and a Cowboys team that lost to Alex Smith and the Chiefs on the road.

Tampa Bay +7.5 over NEW ENGLAND
The Patriots don’t cover games. They still get the dynasty era respect, but they aren’t that same team. They will win enough games to win the AFC East and reach the postseason because of their schedule, but they can’t be trusted to win games for covering purposes. If you’re looking for that team, it’s the Broncos.

MINNESOTA -6 over Cleveland
I think the Vikings are better than their 0-2 record says they are because my girlfriend, a Vikings fan, makes me believe they are. So if they can’t cover against the Browns at home, I blame her.

NEW ORLEANS -7.5 over Arizona
The Saints at the Superdome against the Cardinals. That sentence should say all you need to know.

WASHINGTON -1.5 over Detroit
When you take a dome team out of their dome, bad things happen. The Saints and Falcons are unstoppable and unbeatable at their homes and while the Lions don’t have the same home success of those two teams, they play just as poorly as them when they are on the road.

Green Bay +3 over CINCINNATI
I want to buy into the Bengals and their bandwagon, which is running out of seats (I checked on StubHub and Craigslist), but against the Packers, even if they’re not the same Packers everyone is selling us on, I have to go with Aaron Rodgers over Andy Dalton.

New York Giants +1 over CAROLINA
The Giants aren’t playing for their season in Carolina, but they kind of are. A loss to the Panthers will start the “Only (some number) of teams have started 0-3 and made the playoffs” talk for every media outlet until next Sunday. So I have to pick the Giants to cover because I think they will win. They kind of have to.

MIAMI -2 over Atlanta
Remember what I said for about the Lions earlier? If you do, then you know that I wrote about the Falcons in that summary and what kind of road team they are.

SEATTLE -19 over Jacksonville
It’s the first college football line in the NFL in a while and it could be -35 and I would still take the Seahawks.

SAN FRANCISCO -10.5 over Indianapolis
The Colts are in a bad spot going to San Francisco with the 49ers coming off back-to-back losses. A very bad spot.

Buffalo +2.5 over NEW YORK JETS
The Giants are 0-2 and the Jets are 1-1 and the Giants are being talked about like they are the Jets, while the Jets are being talked about like they are the … well, they are still being talked about like they are the Jets because everyone is waiting for them to fall apart. The only way for them to fall apart is to start losing games like a home game against the Bills.

Chicago -2.5 over PITTSBURGH
If the Steelers’ team name were anything, but the “Steelers” this week, this line would be probably Chicago -4.5 or higher. But because the Steelers are the Steelers and have the following and garner the attention that they do, they are only 2.5-point underdogs at home despite being really bad.

DENVER -14.5 over Oakland
The Broncos’ line are only going to keep getting higher and higher and higher until you can’t take them anymore. So take them while you can.

Last week: 7-8-1
Season: 10-20-2

Tag: Sam Bradford

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