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Tag: Russell Wilson

Blogs • Giants

Oct 9, 2015

NFL Week 5 Picks

So far this season I have avoided the one week that could ruin or destroy a picks record for the year. I’ll need to avoid it again in Week 5 where the lines are the most challenging they have been yet.

Eli Manning

The Giants are good. They’re certainly better than their 2-2 record says they are (sorry, Bills Parcells). And if not for the still inconceivable decision making in Weeks 1 and 2, they would be 4-0 and sitting atop the NFC East with a two-game lead. Unfortunately, the Giants didn’t run out the clock on the Cowboys and didn’t try to put the Falcons away, and through 25 percent of the season, they’re tied with the Cowboys and Redskins at 2-2.

But that’s Giants football. No matter the year, the season, the players, the coaches or the front office, that’s Giants football and nothing will ever come easy. The should-have-been wins that turned into losses to the Cowboys and Falcons and the should-have-been-blowouts that turned into nerve-racking wins against the Redskins and Bills proved this team will never change. Never. All four games this season have been perfect depictions of the history of the New York Football Giants and somehow there are still 12 more to go. I don’t know where this season is going to take us, but I do know wherever it’s going, it’s going to need to be accompanied by alcohol.

I didn’t think my 13-3 pace from Week 3 would continue for the rest of the season, so I expected the kind of 7-7-1 Week 4 that occurred. So far this season I have avoided the one week that could ruin or destroy a picks record for the year. I’ll need to avoid it again in Week 5 where the lines are the most challenging they have been yet.

(Home team in caps)

HOUSTON -2 over Indianapolis
Andrew Luck missed his first career game on Sunday and now this week, on a short week, both Luck and Matt Hasselbeck are questionable for Thursday Night Football. The Texans have been bad, all three of their losses have been by at least a touchdown and they have a quarterback controversy that started in training camp and hasn’t been resolved 25 percent of the way through the season. If I knew that Luck was playing, or even Hasselbeck, I would take the Colts and feel somewhat confident in my pick despite not believing in the Colts at all. But here I am taking the team I promised myself I wouldn’t take again last week as the Falcons were scoring touchdown after touchdown after touchdown.

Jacksonville +3 over TAMPA BAY
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Jaguars fan or a Buccaneers fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Thank about that.

TENNESSEE +2.5 over Buffalo
How is it that the Bills are still living off their Week 1 rout of the Colts even with the Colts being outed as a fraud team? The Bills’ stock can’t be high because of what happened two weeks ago in Miami against what is now a 1-3 Dolphins team that fired their head coach this week. So the Bills are giving points on the road as a 2-2 team with their best two players (LeSean McCoy and Sammy Watkins) having missed last week and having not practiced since. The wheels are falling off a Rex Ryan team and I can’t help but think I have seen this story play out before.

BALTIMORE -6.5 over Cleveland
When the Ravens go on a run and reach the postseason to increase the chances of an 0-3 team reaching the postseason, we can only thank Josh Scobee for keeping the Ravens alive. Scobee missed two field goals in Week 4, which led Mike Tomlin to not trust him in overtime, and ultimately led to a Ravens game-winning field goal. Now Scobee is no longer a Steeler after missing two field goals in the Steelers’ Week 1 loss to the Patriots and two more against the Ravens. The Ravens’ season should be over, but it’s not, and now they play the Browns and 49ers back-to-back and will be 3-3 heading into Monday Night Football at Arizona in Week 7.

ATLANTA -7.5 over Washington
Last week I said, “I don’t really think the Falcons are good,” and then they went out and put up 48 on the Texans. Now putting up 48 on the Texans might not be as impressive as it would have been before the season started when people thought the Texans’ defense would be among the best in the league, but 48 is 48, and 4-0 is 4-0. Now that the Redskins are 2-2 and very much alive in the NFC East, I now need to spend time and energy rooting against them, and I won’t have to spend so much of either if the Falcons can take care of business at home once again.

KANSAS CITY -9 over Chicago
The Chiefs have lost three straight games and they have given up 105 points in those three games. Now they return home with their season on the line and the gift of the Bears coming to Arrowhead.

New Orleans +5 over PHILADELPHIA
Like the Ravens, the Saints’ winless season was saved in primetime with an 80-yard touchdown in overtime moments after they let Brandon Weeden march down the field and pick their defense apart the way Tony Romo did to the Giants on Sunday Night Football in Week 1.

GREEN BAY -9.5 over St. Louis
I was scared that I wasn’t doing enough financially to take advantage of the Packers’ early-season lines. Sure, the Packers haven’t blown out any team yet with wins of 8, 10, 10 and 14, but they have covered all four of their games so far, and I figured Vegas would start to increase Packers’ lines, especially home ones, enough that it would make people question whether or not they should take the Packers. They didn’t.

Seattle +3 over CINCINNATI
Even though the Bengals are 4-0 and even though their defense has held opponents to 24-or-less points in every game and even though the Seahawks could be 1-3 if the Monday Night Football officials new the rules of the sport they are officiating and even though Marshawn Lynch is questionable and even though Russell Wilson has a fumbling problem, I’m still taking the Seahawks here. Why? Because I made a promise to myself to stick to the “Just Say No to the B’s” campaign.

Arizona -3 over DETROIT
The Lions are 0-4, and if not for an incorrect call on Monday night, their season could have been saved. But their season is over. The Lions return home as a team that is on its way to making it impossible to know how to properly pick their Thanksgiving Day game and they’re returning home to face a Cardinals team that was embarrassed last week and will be looking to avenge a sloppy loss.

NEW ENGLAND -9.5 over Dallas
The Patriots off a bye week against a team without their quarterback and star wide receiver. That’s it. That’s all you need to know.

Denver -5 over OAKLAND
Since Peyton Manning went to the Broncos, the team has been about him and the offense, and in this day and age, that’s exactly what you want your team to be about: the quarterback and his receivers. But the 2015 Broncos are more about their defense than they are their offense, which is saying a lot about a team that has Manning (even at 39), Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. The Broncos have allowed 69 points in four games this season and 14 of those points came off Manning passes that were intercepted and returned for touchdowns, so the Broncos’ defense has really allowed 55 points in four games. I don’t think the Raiders’ offense is ready for this matchup.

NEW YORK GIANTS -7 over San Francisco
The Giants don’t suck. That’s been a big difference in having to turn to football, and hockey, now that the Yankees’ season is over. The last two miserable Yankees seasons ended only to have me watch two bad Giants teams try to fill my sports void, but this year, my post-Yankees sports life has so far given me a Rangers’ opening-night win in Chicago over the Blackhawks and now that that needs to carry over into the weekend and the Giants’ second-to-last primetime game of the season.

Aside from their Week 1 win over the Vikings in which the Vikings looked like an unprepared and lost team, the 49ers have lost three straight and have been outscored 101-28 with just 10 points scored in their last two games combined. They are a bad team that keeps resting their potential star running back, hoping to save him for a rainy day that likely isn’t going to come this season. If the Giants are as good as the near 4-0 start they could have gotten off to, then this will be the fourth straight game the 49ers that will leave people wondering how a Colin Kaepernick-led team was on the doorstep of winning the Super Bowl and now they are … well, this.

SAN DIEGO -3.5 over Pittsburgh
Forever, I wrote about the Inside the Superdome Saints and the Outside the Superdome Saints. Well, those Saints don’t exist anymore. There’s just the Saints now and they’re not good not matter where they play. But the Chargers seem like they have taken over the responsibility of being a completely different team at home and on the road, and more specifically, in the Pacific Time Zone and outside the Pacific Time Zone.

Last week: 7-7-1
Season: 36-25-2

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NFL • Podcasts

Jan 30, 2015

Podcast: Danny Picard

Super Bowl XLIX is finally here and that means everyone can now focus on real football and an actual game rather than inflation regulations.

Tom Brady and Bill Belichick

Super Bowl XLIX is finally here. Well, the weekend is finally here and the this weekend is centered around the game in Arizona. After two weeks of hearing about the football inflation regulations, there will actually be real football and an actual game to talk about.

Danny Picard, of DannyPicard.com and The Danny Picard Show on WEEI and Comcast SportsNet New England, joined me to talk about how Super Bowl XLIX will impact the legacy of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, why people hate the Patriots, how the Seahawks resemble the early-2000s Patriots and who will win in Arizona.

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NFL • Podcasts

Jan 28, 2015

Podcast: Mike Hurley

A lot of people don’t like Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, but even as a Giants and New York sports fan, I have never understood it.

Tom Brady

Super Bowl XLIX is almost here and that means we can actually watch and talk about actual football rather than have to hear about deflated footballs and speculate on what might or might not happen in the game. Sunday it set up to be a great day and a memorable one for Seahawks fans and those who consider themselves a 12th Man, like myself.

Mike Hurley of CBS Boston joined me talk about what Media Day is like, why people hate Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, how to balance being a fan and a media member, the idea of the 12th Man and why the Seahawks are going to win the Super Bowl.

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Blogs • Giants

Jan 16, 2014

NFL Championship Weekend Picks

There are only two Sundays left in the season and three picks left to make in what are the best two possible Championship Game matchups.

There is so much at stake for all four teams and their quarterbacks and their coaches this weekend that is almost feels like Roger Goodell was somehow able to produce the matchups for the AFC and NFC Championship Games. But we know that’s not possible. It’s impossible. A commissioner of a league can’t determine which teams reach their sport’s final four. You probably wouldn’t have gotten the best of payouts if you had done a futures wager on the matchups this weekend, but it was predictable way before the first week of the season, way before Eli Manning threw an interception on his first pass attempt of the season in that first week. (What? You thought I would forget about Eli Manning in my picks even though he hasn’t played in a meaningful game since Nov. 24?)

So here we are in the last second-to-last football Sunday of the season with 256 picks down and three to go.

New England +5.5 over DENVER
It feels weird that this will be the early game on Sunday, but when you have a West Coast team hosting one of the two games, this is what happens. Peyton Manning-Tom Brady won’t feel the same or as important as it should at 3 p.m.rather than in darkness with one of the two Super Bowl teams already known and a legacy-changing game on tap. But the best part about this game taking place is that it will actually take place and we won’t have to watch anymore storylines get squeezed out of it the way NBC kept reaching for new ideas for post-Michael Scott episodes of The Office.

Four years ago on the Friday before Super Bowl XLIV, I wrote the following:

This Sunday should be about Peyton Manning joining an elite group of quarterbacks and adding to his case as the best to ever play the game. It should be about Bill Polian justifying the benching of his starters so we don’t have to hear about how it backfired all offseason. It should be about the Colts taking over for the Patriots as the team and face of the NFL.

Instead of any of those things happening, the Colts lost, lost me my Colts -5 pick, gave Jeremy Shockey a Super Bowl ring and made everyone forget that Peyton Manning had gotten over the Super Bowl hump three years prior the way that people around here forget that A-Rod single-handedly won the Yankees the 2009 World Series. Now Peyton is being given another chance to get back to the Super Bowl and get that elusive second ring that many believe would put him on top of all all-time quarterback debates.

There is so much at stake for the legacies of Peyton Manning and Tom Brady that it’s hard to decide who has more to win or lose with a win or loss (though it won’t matter for anyone if the Seahawks or 49ers win the Super Bowl). When I try to sort out the history involved with this matchup and if either of the two go on to win at MetLife in two weeks, I feel like I’m filling out a W-4, except in this case I can’t call my mom to ask if I should be putting a “0,” “1,” or “2” in the designated space.

Peyton Manning is playing in his third AFC Championship Game (all against the Patriots) and needs to win this week and again in two weeks if he really wants to be in or lead the Best Quarterback Ever conversation, which I’m pretty sure is the only thing he cares about in his life. If he wins this weekend, he will be one win away from returning to the Super Bowl after two seasons removed from potential career-ending neck injuries, and he will be one win away from winning his second Super Bowl that Pierre Garcon dropped for him four years ago.

Tom Brady is playing in his eighth AFC Championship Game in 12 years and is still searching for Super Bowl No. 4 thanks to Eli Manning. But if he wins on Sunday, it will be his sixth AFC title and he will have been the starting quarterback for the Patriots in the Super Bowl at age 24 and also at age 36, which seems like the most amazing and ridiculous TB12 fact.

Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady has been about the Best Regular-Season Quarterback Ever vs. The Winningest Postseason Quarterback Ever, which has seemed appropriate for a guy that seems to be all about personal stats and records and another guy who only cares about the final score. One of them has to win on Sunday and then one of them will be one win away from becoming The Best Ever. Five points seems like too many to give with these two.

San Francisco +3.5 over SEATTLE
The No. 4 and No. 8 teams from My Super Bowl XLVIII Dilemma. On a neutral field, I would have to think the line for this game would be 0 or at most it would be Seattle -0.5 since they are being given that extra half point for being home in a Championship Game despite playing an evenly-matched divisional rival. The line is right where it should be and right where the 49ers should want it to be.

In the Colin Kaepernick era, the 49ers have played in Seattle twice and have lost both games. They lost 29-3 in Week 2 this year and they lost 42-13 in Week 16 last year. The difference in the 2013 game was Kaepernick’s three interceptions, the 49ers’ five turnovers (to the Seahawks’ one) and Marshawn Lynch’s 98 rushing yards along with his two rushing touchdowns and one receiving touchdown. The difference in the 2012 game was Russell Wilson’s four touchdown passes and Lynch’s 111 rushing yards along with a rushing and receiving touchdown. The 49ers have turned into a different team for their trips to CenturyLink Field, but this postseason, the 49ers have turned into a different altogether.

In my Wild-Card Weekend Picks, I said:

Usually every team has at least one letdown game during the year (and in the case of the 2007 Patriots, it comes in the Super Bowl … yes, I had to) and for the 49ers, you would have to say it came in their 27-7 Week 3 loss to the Colts since their 29-3 Week 2 loss to the Seahawks happened in Seattle. But since Week 3, the 49ers have been as good and consistent as any team in the league.

Since then, the 49ers have played their most complete football of the year, once on the road against one of the few elite quarterbacks in the game in a brutal place for road teams to play and again on the road against the best front seven in the game against a 2-seed coming off a week of rest.

The Seahawks were able to hold off the Saints (who might be the worst road team in the NFL, and certainly have the biggest contrast in play between the Superdome and the road) last week, but didn’t look great doing so after having embarrassed the Saints in Seattle in Week 13.

Everyone seems to be riding the Seahawks here because they’re home and because of the 12th Man and because of the way they handled the 49ers in Seattle this year and last. And everyone seems to be penciling in the Seahawks for New York City the way they were prior to their Week 16 home loss to the Cardinals. But the 49ers aren’t the Cardinals. They’re better. And right now they’re better than they have been all year.

Last week: 2-2-0
Regular Season: 117-136-10

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Blogs • Giants • NFL

Oct 3, 2013

NFL Week 5 Picks

So last week wasn’t a must-win game for the Giants, but this week against the Eagles is. I’m serious.

October isn’t the same without the Yankees in the postseason. Luckily this October I have Giants playoffs games to watch.

The Giants have officially reached must-win status on Sunday against the Eagles because they’re not coming back from an 0-5 start even if the Cowboys lose to the Broncos on Sunday (or should I say when the Cowboys lose to the Broncos on Sunday). It’s not necessarily must-win from here on out because the Giants aren’t going to go 12-0 and run the table the way Antrel Rolle suggested they would on WFAN, but losing a second game in the division and falling to 0-for-the season through Week 5 would mean it’s over.

And with the Yankees’ offseason already being filled with enough nonsense that will take us up to and through spring training I don’t need the Giants’ offseason starting on Oct. 7 and don’t want to have nearly three months of meaningless of football to watch.

As for the picks, Week 4 was the first .500 week of the season … progress! Or as Alain Vigneault says, “Pro-gress.”

Week 5 … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

CLEVELAND -4.5 over Buffalo
In the battle of beaten-down football cities, it’s hard not to pull for a Cleveland team that doesn’t have Nick Swisher on the roster.

Kansas City -3 over TENNESSEE
It’s weird that I’m not sure if it’s a good thing or a bad thing that Jake Locker isn’t starting for the Titans. And I’m not sure if it’s a good thing or a bad thing that Ryan Fitzpatrick is starting for the Titans. But right now against the Chiefs, it doesn’t matter.

MIAMI -3 over Baltimore
The Dolphins are 3-1 with their only loss coming in the Superdome, which isn’t the same as any other loss since it’s an automatic loss for any team the day the schedule comes out. Eight months after winning the Super Bowl, the Ravens are a 3-point underdog in Miami and I’m picking the Dolphins.

Jacksonville +11.5 over ST. LOUIS
Last week I said, “I think the only way I wouldn’t pick against the Jaguars right now would be if they were playing the Giants,” but I lied because I never thought the Jaguars would be getting 11.5 points against the Rams.

This should be the game where I say, “Somewhere someone who isn’t a Buccaneers fan or a Cardinals fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.” But really it’s probably a good idea to bet on this game and bet for Jacksonville to cover. Yes, I just suggest that people wager ON Jacksonville. So far the Jaguars have lost by 26, 10, 28 and 34 and have failed to cover in all of their games. But this is the Rams we’re talking about. The Rams, who have given no offensive support to the career of Sam Bradford and who have no business being favored against any team by 11.5 points, even if that team is the Jaguars.

New England -1.5 over CINCINNATI
If it were 2012 and the Patriots had gotten to 3-0 against the Bills, Jets and Buccaneers and I called them out for not being a convincing undefeated team and then they beat the Falcons in Georgia, I would have to believe in them. But it’s 2013 and the Falcons aren’t the team that went to the NFC Championship Game and blew a 17-0 lead in that game and my 10-to-1 parlay with the Ravens to beat the Patriots. However, the Patriots are 4-0 and just doing what the Patriots do seemingly every year even with Tom Brady’s top receiver being Julian Edelman.

Seattle -3 over INDIANAPOLIS
The Seahawks are 4-0 despite being tied for 14th in the league in total yards and 26th in passing yards in a league, which revolves around throwing the ball. Once Russell Wilson’s passing game clicks, it’s going to be hard for anyone in the league to stop the Seahawks, considering no one has stopped them yet just from their rushing and defense.

GREEN BAY -7 over Detroit
The 1-2 Packers at Lambeau coming off a bye against a division rival who plays their home games in a dome? It’s not as easy picking the Packers as it was in the 2011 season.

CHICAGO +1.5 over New Orleans
The Saints are 3-0 at home and have outscored their opponents 92-41. They have only played one road game, but that was a two-point win over the 0-4 Buccaneers, who over the first four games have been the biggest mess in the league. The Bears aren’t the Buccaneers. Soldier Field isn’t Raymond James Stadium. And most importantly, the Saints outside the Superdome aren’t the Saints.

NEW YORK GIANTS -1.5 over Philadelphia
Last week I said, “Save the season or end it. If it’s the latter, I will probably have to pick against the Giants for the rest of the season.” Well, the Giants lost and their season didn’t end and I’m still picking them this week. But this is the final straw. I mean it.

Carolina -2.5 over ARIZONA
I know Bill Parcells said, “You are what your record says you are,” and the Panthers are 1-2, but they are good. They nearly beat the undefeated NFC-favorite Seahawks in Week 1, had a terrible late-game letdown effort in Buffalo in Week 2 and then absolutely destroyed the Giants in Week 3 in the worst loss of the Tom Coughlin era.

Denver -9 over DALLAS
Once again, at some point the Broncos aren’t going to cover. If it’s this week, so be it. But I’m not going to be on the other side of another Broncos blowout.

SAN FRANCISCO -6 over Houston
The 49ers are coming off a much-needed win against the Rams at home and got to enjoy an extra long week off after playing on Thursday Night Football in Week 4. The Texans are coming off a devastating loss to the Seahawks that has called into question Matt Schaub’s abilities and future and has everyone jumping all over Gary Kubiak’s coaching abilities. It’s a recipe for disaster for the Texans in San Francisco.

OAKLAND +5 over San Diego
I have picked for the Chargers the last two weeks and they won for me and tied for me. In Weeks 1 and 2, I picked against the Chargers and they covered both times. So far this season the Chargers are 3-0-1 against the spread, which would make one think they should be all over them since they are staying in their time zone and division against the lowly Raiders whose lone win is against … you guessed it … the Jaguars! But I have learned over the last six years, mainly because of Norv Turner, that you can’t trust the Chargers and Philip Rivers and if you do, you can’t trust them for long. Trusting the Chargers for a third straight week and to continue their undefeated streak of covering is too long.

ATLANTA -10 over New York Jets
Geno Smith and the J-E-T-S on Monday Night Football in the Georgia Dome. The Giants won’t be the only New York football team with embarrassing blowouts on their 2013 resume.

Last week: 7-7-1
Season: 24-35-4

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