Rex Ryan – Page 2 – Keefe To The City

Sep 25, 2014

NFL Week 4 Picks

Last week was a bounce-back week for the picks, but this week needs to better in order to climb out of the early-season hole.

Thursday is a gongshow. It’s Derek Jeter’s final home game ever at Yankee Stadium and the Giants are playing the Redskins in a must-win game to save their season, which means the DVR is already going to need to be ready for a Game 7-like performance. And that’s before I factor in my girlfriend trying to work Grey’s Anatomy and Scandal into the mix.

7:00: Derek Jeter’s final home game on YES
8:25: Grey’s Anatomy on ABC
8:30: Giants at Redskins on CBS
9:00: Scandal on ABC

Obviously we have a problem here. The final game at the Stadium for Number 2 and the Giants playing basically a playoff game in Week 4 should take precedence over the 11th season of Meredith Grey and whatever insane (actually insane) plot Olivia Pope is going to be a part of. However, I don’t know how to cook, or at least cook well, and my girlfriend is very good at it. As much fun as eating pizza sounds every night for the foreseeable future, I do want some actual nutrition in my diet, so I’m going to have to figure something out to make sure Meredith and Olivia make the cut.

It sucks having the Giants play on a short week in an important game just four days after their first win of the season. And it sucks even more that because of Jeter’s final game, I won’t get to enjoy the Giants (if you can really call watching Giants football “enjoyment”) for another 10 days when they play the Falcons. But it won’t suck if they win in Washington, improve to 2-2 with a 10-day break and get my picks started off with a win in Week 4.

(Home team in caps)

New York Giants +3.5 over WASHINGTON
The road team is 0-2 on Thursday Night Football this year. Last year the road team went 6-9 on Thursday Night Football. In other words, it’s really hard to play on Sunday and then have three fake days of practice and preparation and then travel and win a game. Luckily for the Giants, their trip to Washington isn’t that far and if they have to travel to somewhere that isn’t Philadelphia, Washington is a great second choice.

To non-Giants and Redskins fans, this game probably appears as a Thursday Night mess the way the Falcons-Buccaneers game was last week, but there is a lot at stake in this game. As I told my friend Ray, one team is going to enter a 10-day break at 2-2 with control of their season and other team is going to be 1-3 and will have unsuccessfully made it to October with playoff aspirations. Sure, the season will only be 25 percent over for the Giants and Redskins after Thursday night’s game, but look at the schedules for both teams and then tell me that 1-3 isn’t the same as calling them mathematically eliminated on Sept. 25.

After watching the latest edition of the Kirk Cousins experiment in Washington, I wish RGIII hadn’t dislocated his ankle and would be starting this game. Led by Cousins, the Redskins gave away a game in Philadelphia on Sunday and went punch for punch with the best offensive team in the NFC and now Cousins can either begin his campaign to unseat RGIII as the franchise quarterback in Washington or he can dig the Redskins’ hole a little deeper and make sure the Jay Gruden era continues the way the Mike Shanahan era ended.

This is a must-win game for both teams and with the Giants’ season on the line on Sept. 25, the Yankees having been eliminated from postseason contention on Wednesday and the Rangers not starting for another 14 days, I feel like Mitch’s co-worker in the copy room trying to join the fraternity in Old School: “You listen to me. I need this, OK?”

OAKLAND +4 over Miami
I want to believe in the Dolphins because a good Dolphins team means a better chance the Patriots or Jets don’t win the AFC East, but after beating the Patriots in Week 1, the Dolphins have scored 25 points over their last two games and Ryan Tannehill has been just blah. He hasn’t thrown for more than 241 yards in any of his three games and last week at home he completed just 48.8 percent of his passes in a loss to the Chiefs. He hasn’t progressed or showed signs of growing as a quarterback the way you would like a quarterback to start to in his third season.

Oddly enough, the Raiders, who haven’t won a game on the East Coast since 2009, have lost by five and seven points in their two road games against the Jets and Patriots. They have scored even less than the Dolphins (37 points in three games), but they have … well they have … umm … they … OK, fine I don’t have anything good to say about the Raiders or anything positive to try to justify picking them to cover. I guess they did make Tom Brady look as human as any team has in recent years and nearly brought the Patriots to overtime. Other than that, I have nothing. They’re really bad. Let’s move on before I switch this pick.

CHICAGO +1.5 over Green Bay
The Packers aren’t good. They’re just not. But because they have Aaron Rodgers, they are made to be better than they are and I’m sick and tired of hearing about Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Nothing is ever his fault. It’s either his offensive line’s fault or his receivers’ fault and of course it wasn’t his fault when the Packers put up seven points in a dome in Detroit last week.

So far this season, the Packers were routed in Seattle, needed to overcome a 21-0 deficit and survive a controversial timeout call to beat the Jets at home and had that seven-point performance against the Lions. Get out on the Packers while you still can.

Buffalo +3 over HOUSTON
For anyone who watched Ryan Fitzpatrick play quarterback for the Texans on Sunday, how the eff do the Texans have one win let alone two? I guess when he has Arian Foster to hand the ball off to like he did in Weeks 1 and 2 when he only attempted 22 and 19 passes respectively his job is a little easier than when he is asked to throw the ball 34 times like he did against the Giants, resulting in three interceptions.

It hasn’t even been three years since Fitzpatrick signed a six-year, $59 million contract with the Bills during the 2011 season when his stock was the highest and he was shifting power in fantasy leagues across the country, but it feels like that was 30 years ago with the way his career has gone since, bouncing around from Buffalo to Tennessee and now to Houston. With Houston playing Buffalo, Dallas, Indianapolis and Pittsburgh in their next four games, there’s a good chance Ryan Mallett becomes the quarterback of the Texans around Week 8.

INDIANAPOLIS -7.5 over Tennessee
The 2014 Colts are going to look back on the season and thank the Jaguars for propelling them to a great season in Week 3 by giving them their first win, building their confidence and getting back on track after two devastating losses to start the season. And after thanking the Jaguars, the Colts are going to thank the Titans for continuing the Colts’ surge and keeping them on track in Week 4.

Carolina +3.5 over BALTIMORE
After Roger Goodell’s press conference last Friday, I thought we would have to wait a long time for a worse press conference from a high-ranking major sports executive and even then we might never see one. But three days later, Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti decided he would take a run at the title by holding his own press conference and just jumping right into questions in an attempt to rebut the ESPN Outside The Lines piece that ripped apart the Ravens’ handling of the Ray Rice situation and made them out to be liars. Luckily, on this site, I don’t have anyone who can suspend me for calling someone else a liar, so I will gladly call Bisciotti a liar because if you have ever asked anyone a question knowing as a fact they are lying well that’s exactly how Bisciotti acted on Monday.

Bisciotti didn’t come across as someone who started his own business out of his basement, eventually making him a billionaire, and he didn’t speak like someone who is worth a reported $1.5 billion. Bisciotti stuttered and mumbled and “umm’d” and “uhh’d” his way through a painful question-answering session in which he frequently told reporters that his answer to their question was “in the statement” referring to a nine-page statement handed out minutes before the press conference began. As an entrepreneur, who has obviously made great decisions and who could spend $50,000 a day for the next 50 years and still have $587.5 million left, why would you think it would be a good idea to hand out a lengthy statement full of answers minutes before beginning a press conference and then getting testy that people are asking questions that have been answered in the statement?

Detroit -2 over NEW YORK JETS
We are so, so, so, so, so close to hearing Michael Vick chants at MetLife Stadium and if the first half of this game gets away from the Jets, we could very well see the end of Geno Smith’s career as a starting quarterback. That might seem unfair considering he is only in his second season in the league, but Rex Ryan is coaching for his job in 2015 and his job is solely tied to wins and losses and if Geno can’t get him wins, he is going to turn to someone who might be able to.

Rex isn’t with the Jets to grow with Geno and build the franchise since Geno isn’t his quarterback and he isn’t John Idzik’s guy. He is leftover from the previous regime and Idzik has obviously wanted him gone and his own coach brought in since he arrived in New York. If the Jets have a losing season, Idzik will get that chance. If Rex plays Vick and Vick wins then Rex saves his job and creates a problem for Idzik since at 34, Vick isn’t the quarterback of the future for the Jets, and if Geno isn’t playing, he certainly isn’t the quarterback of the future either.

The Jets are on 1-yard line of having a five-alarm dilemma on their hands and if you watched the Bears’ receivers abuse the Jets’ secondary at will on Monday night then it looks like Calvin Johnson and company could be the ones to get Michael Vick more than one snap a game.

PITTSBURGH -7.5 over Tampa Bay
Everything I said about the Steelers last week was thrown out the window after they went into Carolina and embarrassed the Panthers on Sunday Night Football. But everything I said about the Buccaneers was correct.

The Tampa Bay bandwagon has been pulled out of service like the New York subway cars with bed bugs and after losing at home to a Rams team quarterbacked by Austin Davis, I think it’s been derailed for the season.

Maybe this is a trap pick since everyone will be on the Steelers already because they are a national team and then they will be on them extra because the Buccaneers gave up 56 points last week, but if it’s a trap, I’m falling for it.

SAN DIEGO -13.5 over Jacksonville
The Jaguars are 0-3 this year and have lost by 17, 31 and 27, so on average they lose by 25. Last season they went 4-12 and lost by an average of 18.5. So if you think the Jaguars are going to lose, which they are, then there’s a very good chance they lose by two touchdowns since 19 of their last 29 losses have come by at least 14 points and that’s before you factor in that they will be flying across the country to face a Chargers team that flew across the country and beat the 2-0 and emotionally-high Bills last week and knocked off the defending Super Bowl champions the week before. Good luck to every person who will be teasing this game and also selecting it in their elimination pool.

Philadelphia +5 over SAN FRANCISCO
Like, the Packers, the 49ers just aren’t that good. For the last three regular seasons you could have called them the best team in the NFL and no one would have really taken exception with it. But now the 49ers are no longer one of the league’s elite teams. They are a good team, and not a great team, even though I wish they would be a great team this week and beat up on the Eagles, it’s not going to happen.

MINNESOTA +3 over Atlanta
I’m rooting for the Vikings to win this game because my girlfriend is a Vikings fan and Sunday won’t be fun for me if I’m sitting next to her rooting against her team that was destroyed by Adrian Peterson’s personal choices. Maybe now that Teddy Bridgewater is playing, the Vikings will throw downfield, which is something Matt Cassel couldn’t do and has never been able to do. When you have Cordarrelle Patterson on your team, you should probably use him.

New Orleans -3 over DALLAS
This pick goes against everything I know and say about the Outside the Superdome Saints, but AT&T Stadium is basically a dome and the Saints have won their last two games there. I trust this pick as much as I trust the Outside the Superdome Saints, but I still trust them more than the Cowboys.

KANSAS CITY +3.5 over New England
Millions of dollars in elimination pools were saved when Derek Carr threw a game-ending interception against the Patriots and millions of dollars in teasers were lost when Tom Brady threw for only 234 yards, one touchdown and forced the Patriots to settle for three field goals against the Raiders. So far this season, the Patriots allowed 33 points to the scoring-challenged Dolphins in a loss, beat up on the Vikings immediately following Adrian Peterson’s suspension, which left the Vikings without a game plan and then had to hang on and have a rookie quarterback in his third career game make an ill-advised throw at the Patriots’ 12 in the final minute to win.

I have long waited for the Patriots to become just another team and even though they haven’t won a Super Bowl in what will be 10 years this season, they have still appeared in two over that time and made another three AFC Championship Games. But the dynasty is finally slowing down and coming to an end. Brady’s protection isn’t what it once was when he could stand like a statue for what seemed like a minute in the pocket, the team has failed to give him proven receivers even though the league has changed its rule to favor offense and overall, he looks like the quarterback who became a starter starting in 2001 and not the one who took over the game starting in 2007.

Last week: 9-7-0
Season: 21-27-0

Blogs • Giants

Sep 11, 2014

NFL Week 2 Picks

The Giants face an “almost must-win game” in Week 2 against the Cardinals, but they aren’t the only team in that position this week.

Week 2 is dangerous. The only thing you know about every team in the league is one game of information and there’s a good chance that what you learned about each team in 60 minutes of football isn’t an accurate assessment of who that team really is or is going to be. Unless that team is the New York Football Giants.

Every concern, issue, problem, question mark and unknown raised about the 2014 Giants in the offseason and preseason was on display in their 21-points loss to the Lions and troubling part is that they aren’t going to be fixed anytime soon. I highly doubt that after months of trying to learn the new offense that they are all of a sudden going to have learned it and be magically clicking less than six full days after there was reason to celebrate when they would run a play successfully or when a receiver would catch a pass for positive yards.

Here is how I started my 2013 Weeks 2 Picks (and also apparently the way I started my 2012 Week 2 Picks):

Can you have a must-win game in Week 2? Yes, you can because the Giants do.

(I opened my 2012 NFL Week 2 Picks with that same question. I’m hoping I won’t have to use it in 2014.)

And like in The Departed when Mr. French tells Billy after fighting the cranberry-juice ordering guy (he is actually listed as Well-Dressed Scumbag At Bar in the script I used to find the exact quote), “That’s not quite a guy you can’t hit, but it’s almost a guy you cant hit,” the Giants’ Week 2 game against the Cardinals isn’t quite a must-win game, but it’s almost a must-win game. But the Giants aren’t alone in playing an “almost must-win game” in Week 2. So let’s get to the Week 2 picks.

(Home team in caps)

Pittsburgh +2.5 over BALTIMORE
It’s a good thing that with all the negative PR surrounding the NFL this week that they have an actual game with Thursday Night Football for people to talk about and get their attention back on the field. Wait, what’s that? Oh the team playing in and hosting the Thursday game is the team at the center of the league’s problems? That’s some unfortunate timing for Roger Goodell and the NFL.

When it comes to Ravens-Steelers, it’s usually easy to figure out what to do, so I will just add to what I always say before every Ravens-Steelers game.

In 2013, the Steelers won 19-16 and the Ravens won 22-20. In 2012, the Ravens won 13-10 and the Steelers won 23-20. In 2011, the Ravens won 35-7 and 23-20. In 2010, the Ravens won 17-14 and the Steelers won 13-10. In 2009, the Ravens won 20-17 in overtime and the Steelers won 23-20. In 2008, the Steelers won 23-20 in overtime and 13-9.

That’s 12 games with 10 of them being decided by three points, one being decided by four points and one being decided by 28 (the Steelers had seven turnovers, yes seven turnovers, in that loss). Forget picking the Ravens to cover, is there a prop bet that this game will be won by exactly three points?

This game will be decided by three points. And when you know that, how can you not take the points?

Detroit +2.5 over CAROLINA
The Lions’ 35-14 win over the Giants could have probably been 56-0 if the Lions didn’t play Lions football and have several brain farts and commit stupid penalties along the way. But even though there’s a new coaching regime in Detroit, the Lions proved on Monday night that they are still the same old Lions and at any moment they will shoot themselves in the foot and turn a sure-thing into a close thing.

Miami -1 over BUFFALO
The Bills upset the Bears on the road as seven-point underdogs in Week 1, put a massive dent into every survivor pool in the world and were sold to Terry Pegula, the owner of the Sabres, who is obviously going to keep the team in Buffalo. This week has been the best week for Bills fans in over 20 years, but as a franchise and a fan base, good times can’t be sustained in Buffalo.

The Dolphins cost me my New England -5 pick last week, but if I have to take a loss on a pick, I’m happy to take one if it means a loss for the Patriots. Prior to the start of Week 1, you would have thought it was 2004 with the way the Patriots were being picked to win the Super Bowl this year. But after the Dolphins exposed the Patriots’ offensive line as possibly worse than the Giants’ offensive line, and picked apart the Patriots’ so-called revamped defense, it doesn’t seem like the glory days are returning to New England with their personnel.

Jacksonville +5.5 over WASHINGTON
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Jaguars fan or a Redskins fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

TENNESSEE -3.5 over Dallas
After the 1:00 games ended on Sunday and my parlays and teasers had been destroyed and the Yankees had lost their second game in three days in which they didn’t allow an earned run, Tony Romo stepped in to save my Sunday with a season-opening three-interception game.

When I picked San Francisco -5 over Dallas last week, I said:

If you saw the Cowboys roster and it was listed as the roster for “Team X” and Team X didn’t happen to be a national team with a heavy gambling presence, this line would be a lot higher than 5 for one of the NFL’s elite teams on the road against a team that’s headed for a six- or seven-win season.

Now take that and apply it to this week. If Vegas thinks that the Cowboys as the most nationally-followed team with the biggest fan base and most money wagered on their games are 3.5-points underdogs in Tennessee, what are the Cowboys really supposed to be?

NEW YORK GIANTS +2.5 over Arizona
If I could believe in Santa Claus and the Easter Bunny and the Tooth Fairy and that the 2014 Yankees can win 16 of their 19 remaining games and make the playoffs, then I can talk myself into believing that the Giants’ offense, which looked like 11 guys who met five minutes before the game on Monday night, can turn it around for Week 2.

OK, I understand that the Giants’ offense is likely going to be a disaster again this week and that it’s a “work in progress” and that there really isn’t a home-field advantage at MetLife and if anything the Giants play worse at home, but the Giants need to win this game. And as long as Carson Palmer is the opposing quarterback, it might not matter that the Giants’ receivers seem to know the new offense as well as I know how to cook chicken or … well … anything.

MINNESOTA +3.5 over New England
My girlfriend is a Vikings fan and all week I have let her know the important position her team is in. I’m not talking about the Vikings going 2-0 and being at least tied for first place in the NFC North through Week 2. I’m talking about the chance to drop the Patriots to 0-2, a place they haven’t been since 2001 (they actually started that season 1-3, but did win the Super Bowl), put Boston into a state of panic after the city was without a baseball season this summer and put the bet every overconfident Patriots fan made on the Patriots having over 11 wins this seasons on life alert.

If Knowshon Moreno could tear up the Patriots for 134 yards on 24 carries (5.6 yards per carry), what is Adrian Peterson capable of against that defense? I’m getting a little too happy thinking about it.

New Orleans -6.5 over CLEVELAND
I never, ever, ever, ever pick or trust the Saints on the road. The Outside the Superdome Saints can’t be trusted. But there is one circumstance when they can be. That circumstance is when they are playing in Cleveland and Josh Gordon is suspended and the availability of Jordan Cameron and Ben Tate is unknown.

CINCINNATI -5 over Atlanta
Atlanta made me look good last week by not only covering against the Saints, but by beating them in overtime. Unfortunately the Bengals also made me look good by covering and beating the Ravens on the road, and now the Bengals return home where they went 8-0 last year and won those eight games by an average of 17.6 points. The Bengals haven’t lost at home since Dec. 9, 2012 in Week 14 and it was a one-point (20-19) loss to the Cowboys. Could Paul Brown Stadium be turning into the Superdome?

TAMPA BAY -6 over St. Louis
After losing to a Cam Newton-less Panthers team in Week 1, there are a lot of open seats on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers bandwagon as it gives us a preview into what Yankee Stadium will look like in 2015. The Buccaneers now get a Sam Bradford-less Rams team in Week 2 before heading on the road for three straights week to Atlanta, Pittsburgh and New Orleans. If the Buccaneers can’t win a convincing game against the 2014 Rams, who were run out of their own building by the Vikings, then their 2014 is going to go the way 2013 went.

SAN DIEGO +6 over Seattle
I have thought about this game more than any other game this week and after going over everything, I have narrowed all the information down to two basic questions:

1. Do I want to get burned by the Super Bowl champion Seahawks and the best defense in the league for the second time in as many weeks?

2. Do I want to trust that Philip Rivers can keep it close against and possibly even beat the Super Bowl champion Seahawks and the best defense in the league?

And when I write the two questions out, it’s easy for me to see that . If I lose this game taking the best team in football coming off a 20-point win against the so-called “best” quarterback in the league on 10 days rest, I can deal with it. But what I can’t deal with is if I take the Chargers and then watch the Seahawks do what they did to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers on opening night.

Houston -3 over OAKLAND
Oakland is playing for the first overall pick at the 2015 NFL Draft and after having watched Draft Day this week, I can definitely see the Raiders making the same decisions Sonny Weaver Jr. made if he had never eventually gotten his first-round picks back for the next three years back.

GREEN BAY -8.5 over New York Jets
No one seems to know what checkpoint Rex Ryan needs to reach to be the Jets head coach in 2015, whether it’s a .500 season or a winning season or reaching the playoffs or winning a playoff game, but watching Ryan celebrate a Chris Ivory 71-yard touchdown run against the lowly Raiders as if he just received word he’s going to be brought back for next season wasn’t a good look for Rex. It’s the Raiders. The Raiders! They started a rookie quarterback making his NFL debut and helped him out with 25 rushing yards. That’s 25 rushing yards on 15 carries in a 60-minute game!

When I did the Jets preseason podcast with my friend and most optimistic Jets fan Tim Duff, we talked about the Jets’ need to beat the Raiders before the six-week gauntlet from Weeks 2-7 that will decide their season. The Jets took care of business against in Week 1, but now the gauntlet begins and it begins in Green Bay where a healthy Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are looking to bounce back after their season-opening rout at the hands of the Seahawks and avoid falling to 0-2 and Green Bay is where Duff will be, in his Sheldon Richardson jersey likely getting ridiculed and abused by Packers fans. I’m looking forward to my next podcast with Duff following the Jets-Packers game because I know it’s going to have a much different tone than it did before Week 1 when he was taking shots at the Giants and glowing over the phone with optimism about the Jets.

DENVER -13 over Kansas City
Last year I saw “good value” in taking the 9-0 Chiefs’ money line against the 8-1 Broncos in Denver in Week 11. I was at MSG for Rangers-Kings checking my phone for score updates and still felt confident in the bet despite trailing 17-10 at halftime. But eventually, the Broncos pulled away, winning 27-17 and covering the 7.5-point line.

When the teams met two weeks later in Kansas City, I once again saw “good value” in taking the money line of the 9-2 Chiefs over the 10-1 Broncos at home where the Chiefs had only one loss, which came the week prior against the Chargers on a game-winning touchdown with 31 seconds left. The Broncos won again, this time 35-28, and covered again.

The lesson I learned: Don’t trust Alex Smith and Andy Reid against Peyton Manning.

Chicago +7 over SAN FRANCISCO
The Bears are in a bad spot. Not only are they playing the 49ers this week, but six of their next eight games are on the road in tough places: San Francisco, New York (Jets), Carolina, Atlanta, New England and Green Bay. No one saw a Week 1 loss at home to the Bills coming for the Bears and that includes Bills fans. It was a terrible teaser-killing loss and one the Bears couldn’t afford to give away playing in the best division in the league and with their challenging schedule. Had the Bears blown out the Bills and covered their 7-point spread like most assumed, this line in San Francisco would be somewhere around 3.5-5, but instead it’s 7, and 7 seems too high for a 49ers team that suffered devastating secondary injuries. Did I just take Jay Cutler on Sunday Night Football against one of the league’s elite teams in a game in which they will open their new stadium? I probably won’t regret this decision …

INDIANAPOLIS -3 over Philadelphia
Back-to-back primetime spots for Andrew Luck. Earlier this week, Mike Francesa said Luck “is about to become the best player in the league” and that might be true, which means a lot more primetime for Luck for a long, long time.

The Giants’ best chance (and possibly only chance) at reaching the postseason is going to come by winning the division. (Yes, I’m talking Giants’ postseason chances three days after a 21-point in which their offense and offensive coordinator looked like 12 guys who all spoke 12 different languages.) And if the Giants are going to stay in the hunt, they are going to need the rest of the NFC East to be mediocre as well. The Cowboys and Redskins proved they are ready to fight for an 8-8 or 9-7 playoff berth with their Week 1 performances and the Eagles looked like they would happily join in as well before their 34-point second-half outburst against the Jaguars. The only thing standing in the way of the Giants and meaningful late-season football and a potential playoff berth they don’t deserve is if the Eagles don’t run away with the division.

Last week: 8-8-0

NFL • Podcasts

Sep 5, 2014

Podcast: Tim Duff

Jets fans are used to losing and you can’t blame them for being worried about the team this season, but there’s one fan who is overly optimistic about the Jets.

A second Jets-related podcast in two days? Yes. But I have a good reason and a good guest. My friend, Tim Duff, is a lifetime Jets season ticket holder and wears Jets blinders at all costs. If Rex Ryan and Nick Mangold broke into his apartment, took everything in it, drained his bank accounts, maxed out his credit cards, stole his car and left it on some Brooklyn street corner after pouring gasoline on it and lighting it on fire, he would shrug his shoulders and probably think it was awesome that Ryan and Mangold ruined his life and everything to his name. No matter what the roster or personnel looks like in a given year, Duff thinks the Jets are at least a 10-win team and that’s once again the case in 2014.

We talked about the Jets’ decision to hold a contest to replace Fireman Ed, how the Jets are going to handle the six-week gauntlet from Weeks 2 through 7, if Jets fans will turn on Geno Smith in favor Michael Vick and what he thinks might happen to him when he goes to Lambeau Field wearing a Sheldon Richardson jersey.

Blogs • Giants

Dec 26, 2013

NFL Week 17 Picks

It seems like it was just Week 1, but now it’s time to say goodbye to the 2013 regular season and get ready for the postseason.

It feels like just yesterday I was writing “Labor Day is the ultimate Catch-22” to start my Week 1 Picks column, the summer was coming to a close and there was still hope the New York Football Giants would be playing a home game for Super Bowl XLVIII. Now here we are with Christmas over and Week 17 and 2014 upon us. (Excuse me while I grab some tissues.)

There are just 27 games left to pick this season and after last week’s 3-13 disaster, a .500-or-better season has become the pipe dream I said it would be back in Week 13. I entered Week 16 needing to finish 28-15 to finish over .500 season, but that huge setback gives me a 104-126-9 record and means I will have to finish at least 25-2 to finish over .500. So if I am to finish over .500, it means I will endure an historical run ever and if you’re actually putting money on the picks, you will win a silly amount of money between now and the Super Bowl. (Or I will continue to crawl through this mediocre season.) I have said over and over how my picks season has mirrored this Giants season and with the Giants just playing to save face and salvage a win once again this week, it looks like I will be doing the same in Week 17.

This week 13 of the 16 games have playoff implications as of now. I say as of now because by 4:00 on Sunday there will be some late afternoon games that mean as much as Giants-Redskins or Vikings-Lions or Titans-Texans do. Right now, there isn’t one playoff team that has locked up their seed. The problem with those 13 playoff implication games is that in eight of them, one of the teams has absolutely nothing at stake. And with 60 minutes of football separating those eight teams from their playoff-less season and the offseason and putting the lost year behind them, it’s hard to gauge what type of effort you might get in those games. One game stands between 14 of the league’s 32 teams and eight months until their next game.

Carolina -6.5 over ATLANTA
The Panthers are going to the playoffs for the first time since 2008 and Jake Delhomme’s five-pick game when the Panthers were 10-point favorites against the Cardinals. But the Panthers will have to win this Sunday to win the NFC South and get a bye because the Saints are home against the Buccaneers and that’s a guaranteed win for the Saints, and if the Saints are to win and the Panthers lose then the Saints win the South and get the bye.

TENNESSEE -7 over Houston
There it is! It’s that Game of the Week …

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Titans or Texans fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

(Actually this isn’t the only one. There are two more.)

PITTSBURGH -7 over Cleveland
The Steelers are in if they win and the Ravens, Dolphins and Chargers lose. It seems unlikely and insane, but if you go back to 2006, here’s were the two scenarios the Giants needed to happen to reach the playoffs:

1. Win + Minnesota loss or tie + Atlanta loss + Philadelphia win or tie + Seattle win or tie.

2. Win + Minnesota loss or tie + Atlanta loss + Philadelphia win or tie + San Francisco loss or tie.

The Giants lost 30-7 to the Saints, but the Vikings, Falcons, Seahawks and 49ers all lost too, and the Giants basically hit the biggest parlay ever.

I don’t like the Steelers and I never thought I would want them to succeed, but I’m pulling for them to pull this off.

NEW YORK -3.5 over Washington
There it is! It’s that Game of the Week …

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Giants or Redskins fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

(It’s the second of these games.)

There will be plenty of Giants’ non-postseason postseason stuff coming on Monday.

Baltimore +6.5 over CINCINNATI
The Ravens have two ways to get into the playoffs: 1.) Win and have the Dolphins or Chargers lose or 2.) Have the Dolphins, Chargers and Steelers lose. Eleven of the Ravens’ 15 games have been decided by eight points or less, so while I don’t think they will win in Cincinnati, it will likely be a close game.

INDIANAPOLIS -11 over Jacksonville
The 2013 season has been a tale of two seasons for the Jaguars: the pre-bye Jaguars and the post-bye Jaguars. From Weeks 1-8, the Jaguars were 0-8 and lost by 26, 10, 28, 34, 14, 16, 18 and 32 points. But then came their bye and since their bye, they are 4-3. Unfortunately, this week we will see a glimpse of the 0-8 Jaguars with the Colts still playing for a first-round bye even if they won’t get it.

MIAMI -5.5 over New York Jets
This could be Rex Ryan’s last game as head coach of the Jets. I don’t think this should be the end for Rex with the Jets when you consider the team is at worst going to finish 7-9 and could be 8-8 in a year in which their quarterback was Geno Smith and their best receiver was Jeremy Kerley. They had wins over the Patriots and Saints and won in Atlanta back in Week 5 when people thought being the 2012 NFC 1-seed on the road was still a big deal. If Rex deserved to be fired, he deserved to be fired after the 2011 or 2012 season, but Woody Johnson let him hang around for 2013 and he has earned at least another year. But the Jets get things right as often as the Mets do and I fully expect Rex to be fired.

MINNESOTA -3 over Detroit
There it is! It’s that Game of the Week …

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Vikings or Lions fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

(And out third completely meaningless game of the week.)

Green Bay -3 over CHICAGO
What if the Dodgers lost Clayton Kershaw for the final months of the season and stumbled to the finish line, but were lucky enough to have the Giants also stumble down the stretch to have Game 162 be winner-take-all for the NL West and now Kershaw is available and set to start against the Giants? Well, that’s what we have for Bears-Packers with the best quarterback in the league returning for the last game of the season with a chance to not only put his team into the playoffs, but end the franchise’s rival’s season. The Bears had their chance to take care of business in Philadelphia last week and were run out of the building on Sunday Night Football and that loss will cost them their season. Goodnight, Chicago. Last one out of Soldier Field, turn off the lights.

NEW ENGLAND -9 over Buffalo
The Ravens couldn’t deliver for me last week against the Patriots and the Dolphins were shut out by the Bills, so my dream of having the Patriots’ division title being at stake in Week 17 was destroyed. The Patriots have won the AFC East again and will beat the Bills and earn the 2-seed and a first-round bye in the playoffs and end up playing one challenging playoff game in three weeks in Denver for a trip to the Super Bowl. I wish the Giants could play in the AFC East.

NEW ORLEANS -13 over Tampa Bay
Let’s simplify picking and gambling. Whenever you pick a favorite, you need two things to happen: 1.) You need the team to win and 2.) You need the team to cover by a certain amount of points. We know the the Saints are going to win this game. That’s not opinion, that’s fact. So No. 1 is taken care of. That leaves No. 2, which won’t be easy, but when you know the Saints are already going to win, how can you not pick them to cover? I would rather need the Saints to blow out the Buccaneers than need the Buccaneers to keep a game close in the Superdome with the offseason in sight.

Denver -13 over OAKLAND
The last time Peyton Manning took over the single-season touchdown record with 49 in 2004, Tom Brady broke it three years later with 50. Manning has the record again with 51 after throwing four touchdowns against the Texans last week and I would think that he wants to put it out of reach of getting broken soon or ever again. With the Patriots playing the Bills and going to beat the Bills, the Broncos will have to win this game to lock up the 1-seed in the AFC, which they have to get if they want to beat the Patriots in the inevitable AFC Championship Game.

ARIZONA 0 over San Francisco
You know there’s a problem with the way sports put so much stock into division titles when the Cardinals could finish the season with 11 wins and not make the playoffs. And even if the Cardinals do beat the 49ers, they aren’t going to make the playoffs because the 10-5 Saints are going to beat the Buccaneers and end the Cardinals’ season. Meanwhile, the NFC East will be won by either a 10-win team or a nine-win team, the NFC North will be won by a nine-win team or an eight-win team, and both the NFC North and South could be won by 10-win teams. There’s no chance the Saints will lose, so I’m rooting for the Cardinals to win this game, finish 11-5 and give talking heads the chance to talk about changing the NFL playoff format (which is usually fine) for at least a week.

Kansas City +9 over SAN DIEGO
The only way the Chargers can get in is if the Ravens lose to the Bengals and the Dolphins lose to the Jets and then they beat the Chiefs. But by the time this game kicks off, the Chargers will know if they have anything to play for and I don’t think they will because I think the Dolphins beat the Jets.

SEATTLE -11.5 over St. Louis
Everyone has talked about whether or not any team can beat the Seahawks in Seattle and the Cardinals proved that teams can. The Seahawks are going to get their division title and 1-seed by beating the Rams, but that Week 16 loss to the Cardinals seems to have changed the minds of a lot of people who though the Seahawks would walk through their two playoff games to MetLife.

DALLAS +7 over Philadelphia
This isn’t as bad as if the Red Sox and Mets were to meet in the World Series, but it’s in the next tier below that. One team has to win (yes, I do realize they could tie) and one team has to win the NFC East and one team has to go to the playoffs. I have mulled over this decision for the last few weeks when it looked like this matchup and scenario would take place and I couldn’t figure out who to root or, but the Tony Romo situation has made it easy for me to pick for the Cowboys. With Romo undergoing back surgery and out for the season, if the Cowboys can win this game with Kyle Orton and reach the playoffs for the first time since 2009 and just the fifth time since 1999 and possibly win a playoff game then what kind of offseason Cowboys quarterback/future debate/circus are we looking at? An epic one.

Last week: 3-13-0
Season: 104-126-9

Blogs • Giants • NFL

Sep 12, 2013

NFL Week 2 Picks

The Giants had the “Disaster in Dallas” on Sunday night with a six-turnover loss and I just had “The Disaster” in Week 1 with my picks.

Can you have a must-win game in Week 2? Yes, you can because the Giants do.

(I opened my 2012 NFL Week 2 Picks with that same question. I’m hoping I won’t have to use it in 2014.)

OK, maybe it’s not a “must-win game” because the Giants could bounce back from an 0-2 record even if they have to go on the road to Carolina and Kansas City in Weeks 3 and 4. But maybe I’m just saying it’s not a must-win game because the Giants have a very good chance of losing to the Broncos (and Vegas believes they will) and if they do then technically the season would be over if they lose a must-win game. So let’s not classify this game as anything (since I’m too scared to) and how about the Giants just win an important home game?

Since the “Disaster in Dallas,” the Giants have signed Brandon Jacobs, who was last with the team for the 2011 Super Bowl season before performing and talking his way out of town. And the Giants signed Jacobs because David Wilson destroyed the season opener and all Wilson’s done since that game is gotten into Twitter fights with upset Giants fans and angry fantasy team owners, which is exactly what you want your 22-year-old No. 1 running back doing in the days following him being benched.

But if the Giants had the “Disaster in Dallas” then I’m going to have to also name my Week 1 Picks, which actually went worse than the Giants’ six-turnover performance against the Cowboys. So I’m calling the Week 1 Picks just “The Disaster” because that’s what it was. A 3-12-1 week to start the season (I actually went 7-8-1 in my picks pool, so I’m not sure how I managed that much of a difference) is embarrassing. But unlike CC Sabathia, when I say I’m going to try to figure things out and be better, I really am. Even if like CC, I put my season in an early hole and it might take a while to get back to respectability and over .500, I’m going to get back on track. No fake accountability here.

Week 2 … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

New York Jets +11.5 over NEW ENGLAND
Last week I let Mike Hurley tell me that the Patriots blowing out the Bills was “a guarantee.” “A guarantee” he said! Everyone knows how guarantees go when it comes to NFL picks. So I went along with Hurley and his Patriots needed a last-second field goal to put away the Bills.

This week I’m going the way I wanted to go lat week which is against the Patriots because I don’t think they’re that good (there not) and their best receiver is Julian Edelman (yes, that Julian Edelman) and because my friend Scott sent me a 717-word email with the subject “Why you should bet the Pats even at -13.” (To be fair, Scott is a Patriots fan and would probably bet them even at -42.)

The Jets won’t be able to score because not only are they the Jets, but Geno Smith is their quarterback and they had trouble scoring against Tampa Bay at home. So that means I’m reeling on the Jets defense (which means I’m relying on Rex Ryan) and Tom Brady to not be able to score at will. Wait. Why am I picking the Jets again?

PHILADELPHIA -8 over San Diego
I don’t know if I buy the Chip Kelly offense hype. I don’t want to because that doesn’t mean good things for the Giants. But I’m going to buy it this week with the Chargers coming across the country for a 1:05 game after losing to the Texans in San Diego in the late edition of Monday Night Football.

BALTIMORE -7 over Cleveland
The defending champions were embarrassed in Denver to the point that their season and offseason and future have been called into question since last Thursday night. What better way to turn the negativity around than to have Brandon Weeden and the Browns come to town? The answer is none. There isn’t a better way to get your season on track than to face Weeden and the Browns at home.

HOUSTON -9.5 over Tennessee
I’m not a fan of taking the Texans with a line this high, but I’m also not a fan of needing Jake Locker to cover a game for me. And when in doubt, pick against Jake Locker.

Miami +3 over INDIANAPOLIS
Last week I said, “Because I initially picked the Dolphins to cover here and then switch my pick to the Browns like a ninth-grade U.S. History Scantron test, I know the Browns are going to lose and their offseason hype bandwagon is going to stall.”

So I’m going to give the Dolphins another chance because I screwed them over in Week 1 (and in turn they screwed me over).

Carolina -3 over BUFFALO
The Bills surprised everyone when they nearly upset the Patriots in Week 1. The problem is the Bills and their fans are likely proud of their effort against the Patriots and feel as though their loss on a last-second field goal was sort of a victory. That’s why they’re the Bills. And that’s why I will pick against them.

ATLANTA -7 over St. Louis
All of these seven-plus lines this week are making me think this could be a make-or-break week given my record from Week 1, and it probably will be because I keep picking the home team and favorite to cover in them. It’s no different here with the Falcons returning home where they are just like the Saints when it comes to home-field advantage.

GREEN BAY -7.5 over Washington
The Packers lost a revenge game and are coming home where it’s nearly impossible to win unless you’re the Giants and it’s the playoffs and they’re playing a Washington defense that was embarrassed by Chip Kelly’s college football and an offense led by a rusty second-year quarterback coming off knee surgery. I’m going to bank on the Packers, who haven’t lost back-to-back games in three years coming out with a purpose and helping my picks and my rooting interest in the NFC East in this one.

Dallas +3 over KANSAS CITY
I’m not going to sit and here tell you the Giants should have beaten the Cowboys even though they lost 36-31 despite making six turnovers. But I am here to tell you that I don’t think the combination of Andy Reid and Alex Smith is going to do much against legitimate teams even if Reid knows the NFC East better than any opposing head coach in the league.

Minnesota +6.5 over CHICAGO
It would be much easier to pick against the Vikings if my girlfriend wasn’t a Vikings fan and if they had just missed the playoffs last year and I didn’t keep thinking they were actually a “playoff” team because really Adrian Peterson was a playoff team and the Vikings were just the same old Vikings.

New Orleans -4 over TAMPA BAY
Every once in a while there is a line that comes out that makes you think “I need to jump all over this before they realize they entered it wrong.” This is one of those games. But it’s always these games that turn out to be the nail-biter. And because of that and because the Saints outside of the Superdome are not the same team as they are in it, it won’t surprise me if Drew Brees needs to go down the field with under two minutes and no timeouts to win, but not cover.

Detroit -2.5 over ARIZONA
I will always go against Carson Palmer. Always. When the line is this low it just makes it that much easier for me to do so.

OAKLAND -6 over Jacksonville
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Raiders fan or a Jaguars fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that. (I used that write-up twice in Week 1 and will probably use it for every Jaguars game for the season because what else am I going to say about the Jaguars? Unless they finally realize they should sign Tim Tebow.)

NEW YORK GIANTS +5.5 over Denver
The last thing Eli needs to do to officially be able to tell Peyton to “Shut up” at Thanksgiving every Thanksgiving forever is to beat him directly.

San Francisco +2.5 over SEATTLE
I’m hoping for the Seahawks hype bandwagon to come to a crashing halt the way I used to watch The Weather Channel religiously in high school during the winter the night before a test or a project was due. The 49ers can start that process.

Pittsburgh +7 over CINCINNATI
The Steelers look ready to go into rebuild mode, especially when they’re losing to the Titans at home. But even though the Steelers are nowhere near the Super Bowl team they were three years ago, I’m not ready yet to start taking the Bengals to cover a touchdown at home against a team they have trouble barely beating in a nasty division rival matchup. Prove to me that you mean business, Cincinnati, and then we can talk.

Last week: 3-12-1

Tag: Rex Ryan

NFL Week 4 Picks

NFL Week 2 Picks

Podcast: Tim Duff

NFL Week 17 Picks

NFL Week 2 Picks