Peyton Manning – Keefe To The City

Oct 15, 2015

NFL Week 6 Picks

I was due for a clunker eventually and it came last week. Luckily, I still have that solid cushion.

I can’t believe it’s already Week 6 of the NFL season and that’s it’s freezing in New York and that the Giants might be able to go on a run we haven’t seen since their pre-2012 collapse and that the Mets are in the NLCS and making me hate baseball more than I thought was possible after I left Yankee Stadium following the wild-card game loss. But it’s mid-October and the season is starting to take shape and that means the perception of each team has enough of a sample size to get a real feel when it comes to the picks.

I was due for a clunker eventually and it came last week with a 5-8-1 disappointment. Luckily, my Week 4 performance gave me enough of a cushion to take some hits like that. But the cushion isn’t big enough for it to continue, so it’s time to get back on track in Week 6.

(Home team in caps)

Atlanta -3 over NEW ORLEANS
This has trap game written all over, but I’m going to have to get trapped to lose. The Superdome Saints are no more and while these teams always play tight games, which should lead me to take the points, I’m very close to putting the Saints in the

NEW YORK JETS -7 over Washington
I really thought we were going to get the undefeated Jets against the undefeated Patriots in Week 7 this season to go with the memorable Monday Night Football matchup of the two teams from the 2010 season. But the Jets ruined that when they lost to the Eagles, which also didn’t help the Giants. The Patriots have kept up their end of the bargain and they are going to do it this week as well in Indianapolis, so it’s up to the Jets this week to make it the 4-1 Jets against the 5-0 Patriots in Week 7. I have faith in the Todd Bowles Jets coming off a bye week against a Redskins that I need out of the NFC East race.

Arizona -5 over PITTSBURGH
I’m rooting for the Cardinals after they missed the playoffs two years ago with a 10-6 record while the 8-7-1 Packers got in as the NFC North champion and then had an 11-5 season last year only to have a third-string quarterback start their ROAD playoff game against the 7-8-1 Panthers. The Cardinals have a long way to go this season relying on 35-year-old Carson Palmer to stay healthy coming off a torn ACL and for 35-year-old Larry Fitzgerald to keep playing like it’s 10 years ago. The Cardinals already watched Andre Ellington miss a month and had Chris Johnson turn back the clock in his absence and they’re going to need to catch some breaks with health and performance to have a better ending in 2015 than they did in 2013 and 2014.

MINNESOTA -3 over Kansas City
I really like this Vikings team and it’s not because my girlfriend is a Vikings fan and forces me to root for them in exchange for being allowed to sleep in the bed. They are a very underrated team giving only three points at home coming off a bye and playing the 1-4 Chiefs team that has lost four straight and is one win from watching their season end with 10 games left to play. The only thing holding the Vikings back is either the decision of Mike Zimmer or Norv Turner to not let Teddy Bridgewater throw the ball more. It’s time to realize that Adrian Peterson isn’t going to carry the team the way he did in 2012 and if the Vikings want to win one of the two wild-card sports in the NFC, they’re going to need to let Bridgewater evolve this season as more than a game manager.

Cincinnati -3 over BUFFALO
OK, I’m breaking my rule about staying away from the B’s (the Bengals, Bears and Browns) this week. But in the fine print of that rule it says: “Void if EJ Manuel is the starting quarterback of the opposing team.” Well, EJ Manuel is starting for the Bills this week and that means it’s time to jump on the Bengals bandwagon. I plan on only staying for a week.

Chicago +4 over DETROIT
Two teams that should be better than they are, but aren’t. That’s been the story for these NFC North rivals for a long time now and with John Fox and Jim Caldwell as the head coaches of the two teams, I don’t expect that to change anytime soon. It will probably be a sloppy game with a lot of turnovers and a lot of undisciplined penalties and it’s for that reason that I’m taking the points.

Denver -4 over CLEVELAND
I’m scared of this one. I’m scared of what has happened to Peyton Manning. I actually went on YouTube this week to look back at Peyton highlights from his days on the Colts just to remember how he used to throw the ball and how good he used to be. Sure, his best statistical season came with the Broncos, but it was with the Colts when Peyton could still throw the ball with some zip and still throw the deep ball and still get the ball to have a tight spiral. (This led me to watching the highlights from the Colts’ 2006 AFC Championship Game comeback over the Patriots, which was magical.) I don’t have a lot of confidence in Peyton being able to cover barely-a-field-goal spread anymore, and that is scary, but I can’t willingly pick Josh McCown against the Broncos’ defense, which has become the face of the the team.

Houston +3 over JACKSONVILLE
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Texans fan or a Jaguars fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Thank about that.

Miami +3 over TENNESSEE
The Dolphins are bad, but they’re not “Getting 3 at Tennessee” bad. There are maybe one or two, possibly three teams in the NFL that are that bad and the Titans aren’t one of them.

SEATTLE -7 over Carolina
I think the Panthers are frauds. There I said it. They might be 4-0 and coming off a bye, but their four wins were against Jacksonville, Houston, New Orleans and Tampa Bay. Now they are heading to Seattle and to the toughest place to play in not only the NFL, but in all of the major sports, and they have to play a 2-3 Seahawks team coming off a devastating overtime loss in Cincinnati where they blew a 17-point lead. The Panthers being part of the undefeated conversation ends this weekend.

GREEN BAY -10 over San Diego
The Packers are going to be a double-digit favorite at home for the rest of the season the way they probably should have been all season, and while it’s never easy covering two-possession spreads, the Packers at Lambeau are as good as it gets when it comes to doing so. I actually feel like this line is a little low and time is running out on taking advantage of getting the Packers at 10 points or less.

SAN FRANCISCO +3 over Baltimore
Two-plus years ago this was the Super Bowl. Now it’s a joke. The 49ers are in a rebuilding phase and the Ravens are stuck in some weird phase that I don’t even know what to call it. I guess you can call it “they suck” because that’s the way to classify teams that are supposed to be good and aren’t and aren’t rebuilding and don’t really seem to have a plan in place. The Ravens aren’t supposed to be 1-4 right now (they’re actually supposed to be 0-5 if not for Josh Scobee) and I saw them being picked as potential Super Bowl champions this year. But here they are playing for their season in Week 6. Let’s hope it ends.

New England -10 over INDIANAPOLIS
I was extremely upset with myself for not investing more financially in the Patriots against the Cowboys. This time, I won’t make that mistake. The Colts are a “bad good” team and with Andrew Luck hurting and incapable of beating the Patriots, I’m expecting a double-digit win in this one.

New York Giants +3.5 over PHILADELPHIA
Everyone is talking about the Giants’ schedule for their next four games and how they have a chance to be 7-2 heading into their Week 9 game against the Patriots and have a commanding lead in the NFC East. The problem is this is the Giants we are talking about. The New York Football Giants. The team that is known for not making it easy and not being able to live up to expectations and regular-season collapses. This game isn’t going be easy even with Sam Bradford playing quarterback and DeMarco Murray still an unknown and it’s likely to be the same close game nearly every NFC East Game. And with that, I have to take the Giants.

Last week: 5-8-1
Season: 41-33-3

Blogs • Giants

Oct 9, 2015

NFL Week 5 Picks

So far this season I have avoided the one week that could ruin or destroy a picks record for the year. I’ll need to avoid it again in Week 5 where the lines are the most challenging they have been yet.

The Giants are good. They’re certainly better than their 2-2 record says they are (sorry, Bills Parcells). And if not for the still inconceivable decision making in Weeks 1 and 2, they would be 4-0 and sitting atop the NFC East with a two-game lead. Unfortunately, the Giants didn’t run out the clock on the Cowboys and didn’t try to put the Falcons away, and through 25 percent of the season, they’re tied with the Cowboys and Redskins at 2-2.

But that’s Giants football. No matter the year, the season, the players, the coaches or the front office, that’s Giants football and nothing will ever come easy. The should-have-been wins that turned into losses to the Cowboys and Falcons and the should-have-been-blowouts that turned into nerve-racking wins against the Redskins and Bills proved this team will never change. Never. All four games this season have been perfect depictions of the history of the New York Football Giants and somehow there are still 12 more to go. I don’t know where this season is going to take us, but I do know wherever it’s going, it’s going to need to be accompanied by alcohol.

I didn’t think my 13-3 pace from Week 3 would continue for the rest of the season, so I expected the kind of 7-7-1 Week 4 that occurred. So far this season I have avoided the one week that could ruin or destroy a picks record for the year. I’ll need to avoid it again in Week 5 where the lines are the most challenging they have been yet.

(Home team in caps)

HOUSTON -2 over Indianapolis
Andrew Luck missed his first career game on Sunday and now this week, on a short week, both Luck and Matt Hasselbeck are questionable for Thursday Night Football. The Texans have been bad, all three of their losses have been by at least a touchdown and they have a quarterback controversy that started in training camp and hasn’t been resolved 25 percent of the way through the season. If I knew that Luck was playing, or even Hasselbeck, I would take the Colts and feel somewhat confident in my pick despite not believing in the Colts at all. But here I am taking the team I promised myself I wouldn’t take again last week as the Falcons were scoring touchdown after touchdown after touchdown.

Jacksonville +3 over TAMPA BAY
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Jaguars fan or a Buccaneers fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Thank about that.

TENNESSEE +2.5 over Buffalo
How is it that the Bills are still living off their Week 1 rout of the Colts even with the Colts being outed as a fraud team? The Bills’ stock can’t be high because of what happened two weeks ago in Miami against what is now a 1-3 Dolphins team that fired their head coach this week. So the Bills are giving points on the road as a 2-2 team with their best two players (LeSean McCoy and Sammy Watkins) having missed last week and having not practiced since. The wheels are falling off a Rex Ryan team and I can’t help but think I have seen this story play out before.

BALTIMORE -6.5 over Cleveland
When the Ravens go on a run and reach the postseason to increase the chances of an 0-3 team reaching the postseason, we can only thank Josh Scobee for keeping the Ravens alive. Scobee missed two field goals in Week 4, which led Mike Tomlin to not trust him in overtime, and ultimately led to a Ravens game-winning field goal. Now Scobee is no longer a Steeler after missing two field goals in the Steelers’ Week 1 loss to the Patriots and two more against the Ravens. The Ravens’ season should be over, but it’s not, and now they play the Browns and 49ers back-to-back and will be 3-3 heading into Monday Night Football at Arizona in Week 7.

ATLANTA -7.5 over Washington
Last week I said, “I don’t really think the Falcons are good,” and then they went out and put up 48 on the Texans. Now putting up 48 on the Texans might not be as impressive as it would have been before the season started when people thought the Texans’ defense would be among the best in the league, but 48 is 48, and 4-0 is 4-0. Now that the Redskins are 2-2 and very much alive in the NFC East, I now need to spend time and energy rooting against them, and I won’t have to spend so much of either if the Falcons can take care of business at home once again.

KANSAS CITY -9 over Chicago
The Chiefs have lost three straight games and they have given up 105 points in those three games. Now they return home with their season on the line and the gift of the Bears coming to Arrowhead.

New Orleans +5 over PHILADELPHIA
Like the Ravens, the Saints’ winless season was saved in primetime with an 80-yard touchdown in overtime moments after they let Brandon Weeden march down the field and pick their defense apart the way Tony Romo did to the Giants on Sunday Night Football in Week 1.

GREEN BAY -9.5 over St. Louis
I was scared that I wasn’t doing enough financially to take advantage of the Packers’ early-season lines. Sure, the Packers haven’t blown out any team yet with wins of 8, 10, 10 and 14, but they have covered all four of their games so far, and I figured Vegas would start to increase Packers’ lines, especially home ones, enough that it would make people question whether or not they should take the Packers. They didn’t.

Seattle +3 over CINCINNATI
Even though the Bengals are 4-0 and even though their defense has held opponents to 24-or-less points in every game and even though the Seahawks could be 1-3 if the Monday Night Football officials new the rules of the sport they are officiating and even though Marshawn Lynch is questionable and even though Russell Wilson has a fumbling problem, I’m still taking the Seahawks here. Why? Because I made a promise to myself to stick to the “Just Say No to the B’s” campaign.

Arizona -3 over DETROIT
The Lions are 0-4, and if not for an incorrect call on Monday night, their season could have been saved. But their season is over. The Lions return home as a team that is on its way to making it impossible to know how to properly pick their Thanksgiving Day game and they’re returning home to face a Cardinals team that was embarrassed last week and will be looking to avenge a sloppy loss.

NEW ENGLAND -9.5 over Dallas
The Patriots off a bye week against a team without their quarterback and star wide receiver. That’s it. That’s all you need to know.

Denver -5 over OAKLAND
Since Peyton Manning went to the Broncos, the team has been about him and the offense, and in this day and age, that’s exactly what you want your team to be about: the quarterback and his receivers. But the 2015 Broncos are more about their defense than they are their offense, which is saying a lot about a team that has Manning (even at 39), Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. The Broncos have allowed 69 points in four games this season and 14 of those points came off Manning passes that were intercepted and returned for touchdowns, so the Broncos’ defense has really allowed 55 points in four games. I don’t think the Raiders’ offense is ready for this matchup.

NEW YORK GIANTS -7 over San Francisco
The Giants don’t suck. That’s been a big difference in having to turn to football, and hockey, now that the Yankees’ season is over. The last two miserable Yankees seasons ended only to have me watch two bad Giants teams try to fill my sports void, but this year, my post-Yankees sports life has so far given me a Rangers’ opening-night win in Chicago over the Blackhawks and now that that needs to carry over into the weekend and the Giants’ second-to-last primetime game of the season.

Aside from their Week 1 win over the Vikings in which the Vikings looked like an unprepared and lost team, the 49ers have lost three straight and have been outscored 101-28 with just 10 points scored in their last two games combined. They are a bad team that keeps resting their potential star running back, hoping to save him for a rainy day that likely isn’t going to come this season. If the Giants are as good as the near 4-0 start they could have gotten off to, then this will be the fourth straight game the 49ers that will leave people wondering how a Colin Kaepernick-led team was on the doorstep of winning the Super Bowl and now they are … well, this.

SAN DIEGO -3.5 over Pittsburgh
Forever, I wrote about the Inside the Superdome Saints and the Outside the Superdome Saints. Well, those Saints don’t exist anymore. There’s just the Saints now and they’re not good not matter where they play. But the Chargers seem like they have taken over the responsibility of being a completely different team at home and on the road, and more specifically, in the Pacific Time Zone and outside the Pacific Time Zone.

Last week: 7-7-1
Season: 36-25-2

Blogs • Giants

Oct 1, 2015

NFL Week 4 Picks

After surviving Week 2, Week 3 was one for the history books, but now the bar has been set to try to continue to produce equally successful weeks. It’s not an easy job, but someone has to do it.

The good part about your team playing on Thursday Night Football is that you only have to wait four days until the team’s next game. The bad part about your team playing on Thursday Night Football is that you then have to wait 10 days until they play again. But that’s not necessarily bad for the Giants since their early-season Thursday game serves as nearly a bye week, giving them time to rest and prepare for the Bills.

The Giants are in a perfect position to go on a run and take control of the NFC East with Tony Romo and Dez Bryant out for a couple months, the Eagles having no identity and a bad offense with a greatly underachieving DeMarco Murray and the Redskins being the Redskins. After the Week 1 meltdown in Dallas, I figured that loss would eventually mean the Giants would have to battle for a wild-card berth, but the NFC East once again is proving to be a gongshow for another season, and that’s exactly what the Giants need.

Last week was a memorable one. A 13-3 week with the picks that included a Giants win over the Redskins is about as good as it gets when it comes to the always unpredictable NFL. After surviving Week 2, Week 3 was one for the history books, but now the bar has been set to try to continue to produce equally successful weeks. It’s not an easy job, but someone has to do it.

(Home team in caps)

PITTSBURGH +3 over Baltimore
Michael Vick doesn’t really want to play football anymore. He wants to collect a paycheck to practice during the week and then watch Steelers games from the sidelines on Sundays (and sometimes Mondays and a Thursday). It was the same story when he was with the Jets and when he finally had to go into a game, he looked like someone who hadn’t prepared to play an actual snap for the season. But even for as bad as Vick has looked and has been, the Ravens are worse. They are 0-3 for the first time under John Harbaugh, their defense has been embarrassed and their offense has been non-existent. Aside from all of that, you always take the points in Steelers-Ravens games. It’s just the smart thing to do.

Last season, the Ravens won 26-6 and the Steelers won 43-23. In 2013, the Steelers won 19-16 and the Ravens won 22-20. In 2012, the Ravens won 13-10 and the Steelers won 23-20. In 2011, the Ravens won 35-7 and 23-20. In 2010, the Ravens won 17-14 and the Steelers won 13-10. In 2009, the Ravens won 20-17 in overtime and the Steelers won 23-20. In 2008, the Steelers won 23-20 in overtime and 13-9.

Last season was an anomaly, but including last season, in the last 14 meetings between the two teams, 10 of the games have been decided by three points or less and eight of them have been decided by exactly three points. Even without Ben Roethlisberger, you have to take the Steelers at home getting 3.

New York Jets -2 over MIAMI
Last week, I said the following about the Jets.

Now not only are the Jets not going to start the season 1-3, they might be 4-0 heading into their bye and with the Redskins on the schedule in Week 6, they might be 5-0 heading to New England. Nearly five years after we got the 9-2 Jets against the 9-2 Patriots on Monday Night Football, we might get the 5-0 Jets against the 5-0 Patriots this season.

So how did they repay my positivity about them? By losing at home to the Eagles, which screwed up the NFC East even more and hurt the Giants, in a game that included one of the dumbest decisions I have ever seen by Brandon Marshall on an unnecessary lateral that turned into a fumble. It felt like the same old Jets and after that fumble I expected the camera to pan to the sidelines and for Rex Ryan to be standing there.

But Rex isn’t there and Todd Bowles is and it was his first bad game as Jets head coach even if he couldn’t control Marshall’s decision making or Ryan Fitzpatrick’s ineffectiveness. And even thought the Jets looked awful in a home loss, they won’t spiral out of control the way they would have if Rex were still there. That’s partly because of Bowles and partly because the Dolphins are atrocious.

So far the Dolphins barely got past the Redskins (who are 1-2) in Week 1, lost to the Jaguars (who are 1-2 and lost to the Patriots 51-17) in Week 2 and were run out of their own building by the Bills in Week 3. Here’s what I said about the Dolphins in Week 1:

For the last few years, we have been hearing about how the Dolphins will challenge the Patriots in the AFC East and each time they have failed. This year, the Dolphins are supposed to be even better and once again challenge the Patriots and reach the postseason for the first time since 2008.

Well, the Dolphins are once again an underachieving and mediocre team, and mediocre might be generous. A week after they couldn’t win a division game at home, actually scratch that … A week after they couldn’t even compete in a division game at home, they’re now going to go across the Atlantic and beat the Jets on a neutral field. OK, sure.

Jacksonville +9 over INDIANAPOLIS
The best thing to happen in Week 3 was the Jaguars getting blown out in New England, so that this line would be made too high, and it is. The Colts are a bad team that celebrated their Week 3 win over the Titans the way they would have likely celebrated their AFC Championship win over the Patriots had they won (or even made it a game). The Jaguars aren’t good, but neither are the Colts, and for the Colts to be giving 9 points to any team after back-to-back losses to open the season and barely pulling out a two-point win in Tennessee. Despite being favorites in their first three games, the Colts have yet to cover, considering they lost two of them, and I’m continuing to sell hard on the Colts.

Houston +7 over ATLANTA
I don’t really think the Falcons are good. That isn’t exactly something normal to say about an undefeated 3-0 team with two road wins already on the season, but like saying goes, “It’s not about who you play, it’s about when you play them.” So far the Falcons got the inept Eagles at home in Week 1, the Giants’ clock management problems in Week 2 and a Tony Romo- and Dez Bryant-less Cowboys team in Week 3. The Falcons deserve credit for winning all three games and for coming from behind down multiple possessions in the last two, but those aren’t exactly impressive wins and even with Julio Jones catching everything thrown within 10 feet of him, the Falcons just aren’t anything special. They might beat the Texans and improve to 4-0, but they aren’t going to do it by blowing them out because that’s not who the Falcons are.

Carolina -3.5 over TAMPA BAY
The Panthers are the most under-the-radar 3-0 team ever. I had to check to make sure they were 3-0 because that’s how little I have heard about them and their undefeated start to the season. Even though their wins are against Jacksonville, Houston and New Orleans, they’re still wins and the Panthers have the luxury of playing in the NFC South where only Atlanta will give them any sort of competition. I might shy away from picking the Panthers if they were being talked about and hyped as much as any other 3-0 team would, but as long as the Panthers continue to go unnoticed, there’s nothing to be worried about with a potential trap line.

New York Giants +5.5 over BUFFALO
The return of Victor Cruz had me dreaming of the possibilities of Odell Beckham Jr. and Cruz being unstoppable since we have never really seen the two play together. (The duo played just one game together last season before Cruz injured his knee.) But after suffering a setback with his calf in practice on Wednesday, Cruz probably won’t play again this week in Buffalo, and if he doesn’t, he will have already missed 25 percent of the season.

On the Bills’ side, Rex Ryan told Mike Francesa on Wednesday that both LeSean McCoy and Sammy Watkins are likely out for the game. That leaves the game pretty much up to the Bills’ defense, which let the Patriots put up 507 yards against them at home, so the aura of Ralph Wilson Stadium being a touch place to play just because the Colts couldn’t do anything isn’t exactly true.

Oakland -3 over CHICAGO
When was the last time the Raiders were a road favorite? LOOK IT UP. This line feels way too low after watching Jimmy Clausen and the Bears punt on all 10 of their possessions against the Seahawks last week. I’m not sure how the Bears are ever going to score with Clausen at quarterback unless Robbie Gould starts drilling 70-yard field goals. But even then, Clausen would have to move the ball to the Bears’ 47 and I’m not sure if that’s possible. After trading Jared Allen, it’s clear the Bears are about to begin a fire sale and it has been suggested that they trade Matt Forte, who is in the last year of his contract and approaching 30. If Forte wasn’t in the last year of his contract, I would advise the Bears to make him inactive for every game for the rest of the season and save his legs for next year, but since he is, they should trade him. Why should the Bears have an elite running back? It’s like a 60-win baseball team having an elite closer. Trade Forte.

WASHINGTON +3.5 over Philadelphia
Kirk Cousins says he couldn’t sleep over his non-touchdown passes to Jordan Reed on Thursday Night Football last week. That’s good because it shows Cousins’ head is in the right place, but it’s not good because he needs his sleep to win this game.

I’m rooting for the Redskins to win because they are less of a threat to the Giants in the NFC East and a Redskins win would give Philadelphia two division losses. I want the NFC East to become a two-team race between the Giants and Cowboys and without Romo and Bryant for a while, the Giants will have the opportunity to take a commanding lead. Will they take advantage of this opportunity? Of course not. But I can dream.

Kansas City +4.5 over CINCINNATI
The old me would see this line, remember that the Chiefs are 1-2 and Ryan Mallett starting over Brian Hoyer in Week 1 from being 0-3, and remember that the Bengals are 3-0 and instantly pick the Bengals. But not the new me. Not the me that has created a “Just Say No to the B’s” campaign. Those B’s are the Bengals, Bears and Browns. So I’m saying no to the Bengals and there isn’t an amount of peer pressure that could get me to change my mind.

SAN DIEGO -7.5 over Cleveland
If you just read my rule about the B’s in the last pick then you already know. However, there is one exception to that rule and that is when Johnny Manziel starts, the Browns aren’t part of it. Johnny Football is once again on the bench, so I’m saying no to the Browns and I hope they lose in a rout.

Green Bay -9.5 over SAN FRANCISCO
Carlos Hyde ran all over the Vikings in Week 1 and had the best week of any running back in the NFL in his debut as the 49ers starter. The next week he got hurt against the Steelers and when he was ready to come back in, he was held out because the score was lopsided. Last week, due to another lopsided score, he was held out for most of the game again. This week, the 49ers are playing the best team and the best offense in the NFC. There’s a good chance we’re headed for another game in which Hyde watches from the sidelines to preserve his health and legs for future games. There are going to be a lot of games like that for the 49ers this season, but the problem is that Hyde is the 49ers offense, so without him they don’t have a chance.

DENVER -7 over Minnesota
The Vikings are 2-1 thanks to two home wins, but I didn’t like what I saw from them in their season opener on the road in San Francisco against a team that has been outscored 90-25 in the last two weeks. I don’t know how I’m supposed to take the Vikings in Denver against Peyton Manning and that defense and feel confident with a 7-point spread. I’m going to have to see Teddy Bridgewater and the Vikings offense a little more away from Minnesota before I start to back the Vikings on the road. (Sorry, Britt. Don’t worry, I like sleeping on the couch.)

ARIZONA -7 over St. Louis
The Cardinals are the real deal. Two years ago, they were a 10-win team that didn’t make the playoffs. Last season, they were a true contender in the NFC until Carson Palmer got hurt and Drew Stanton got hurt and they were left starting Ryan Lindley, who threw for 82 yards, in their playoff game at Carolina. Bruce Arians and the Cardinals deserve better and so far this season they have proven that they are at the top of the NFC with the Packers and are better than their their division rival Seahawks. I’m going to enjoy taking the Cardinals for a touchdown or less for as long as Vegas wants to give away a free pick and free money.

NEW ORLEANS -5 over Dallas
It’s the possibly Drew Brees-less Saints against the Tony Romo-less Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. NBC must be thrilled about the state of these two teams for their primetime game though probably not as thrilled as Brees was when he found out Jimmy Graham was traded to Seattle.

The Superdome Saints are no more. When you lose to Jameis Winston and the Buccaneers in the Superdome, that theory goes away. Instead the Saints are now an 0-3 team with a loss this week away from having their season over with 75 percent of the schedule remaining. If there’s any truth to the idea of a desperate team coming to play and winning a game, this is it. What better way to turn your season around than on national TV in the manic Superdome with Drew Brees returning to the field.

SEATTLE -10 over Detroit
I’m not sure if Jim Caldwell’s job is in trouble with the Lions being winless since I’m not sure how Jim Caldwell was hired to be the Lions head coach to begin with. Maybe that postseason appearance last year is enough to buy Caldwell some time, but that time might be erased in the coming weeks. After the Lions lose in Seattle, they host Arizona, Chicago and Minnesota and then go to Kansas City before their Week 9 bye. That has 1-8, maybe 2-7 at best, written all over it.

Last week: 13-3-0
Season: 29-18-1

Blogs • Giants

Sep 24, 2015

NFL Week 3 Picks

The key to the picks season is surviving Week 2. A 7-9 Week 2 isn’t anything to be excited about, but it’s enough to survive, and set up a very important Week 3.

The Giants have been a losing team for a long time. They’re 0-2 right now. They were 6-10 last season. They were 7-9 in 2013, and at 6-2 in 2012 with a chance to win the NFC East, they finished 3-5. Put all of that together and you have a 16-26 record over the last 42 games over parts of four seasons with obviously no playoff appearances. Four of those 16 wins came against the Redskins as the Giants have gone 12-26 against teams not named the Redskins since Week 9 of 2012.

Tom Coughlin survived the second-half collapse of 2012 because of the Super Bowl XLII win the year before. He survived a losing season in 2013 and again in 2014 because of Super Bowl XLII and XLVI. But after this now lengthy stretch of losing, time is running out on Tom Coughlin and his Giants era, which is in its 12th year. The Giants aren’t going to fire Coughlin in the middle of the season if the losing continues and if the team is unable to compete in the wide-open and horrible NFC East, but this will be the beginning of the end of the Coughlin era if the Giants don’t start winning and change the late-game losing culture they have established.

Luckily for the Giants, at 0-2, they’re facing the one team they have been able to count for wins in recent years: the Redskins.

The key to the picks season is surviving Week 2. A 7-9 Week 2 isn’t anything to be excited about, but it’s enough to survive.

(Home team in caps)

NEW YORK GIANTS -3.5 over Washington
In any other division, at 0-2 with a divisional loss, the Giants would be in serious trouble. But in the NFC East, where the 2-0 Cowboys are without Tony Romo and Dez Bryant and the 0-2 Eagles are a disaster and the 1-1 Redskins are the Redskins, the Giants aren’t in the worst place. Sure, it would be nice if they could finish in the final minutes of the fourth quarter and be 2-0 right now, but the season isn’t over … yet. If they lose at home on Thursday Night Football to the Redskins, then yes, the season is over. Unfortunately, in the NFC East, even at 0-3, the Giants probably aren’t even out of it, but I’m going to pretend they will be.

Pittsburgh -2 over ST. LOUIS
The Steelers are getting Le’Veon Bell back in time to face the vaunted home defense of the Rams. I say “home defense” because when you go to Washington and allow 24 points and lose by 14, it doesn’t matter that you beat the two-time defending NFC champions in the season opener. Along with the Patriots, the Steelers are at the top of the AFC right now and were even before the return of Bell. Now that Bell is back and with Martavis Bryant back in two weeks, the Steelers are only going to get stronger. Even though I could care less about the Steelers, I care about the AFC having at least one or two teams that are somewhat good and could prevent the Patriots from yet another easy walk through the postseason, so that’s why I want, no I need the Steelers to be good.

MINNESOTA -2.5 over San Diego
The Chargers opened the season in San Diego against Detroit. Then they flew to Cincinnati to play the Bengals. Then they flew back to San Diego. Now they are flying back to Minnesota to play the Vikings. That’s a lot of travel in the last nine or 10 days once this game kicks off on Sunday, which will have included going three time zones east, three time zones back west and then two time zones east again in that span.

HOUSTON -6.5 over Tampa Bay
Aside from cutting Charles James in training camp and naming Brian Hoyer the starter over Ryan Mallett, Hard Knocks made me want to like the Texans. But after losing their first two games to the Chiefs and Panthers, it’s getting harder to like the Texans and believe in them. This is it for me and the Texans. They have cost me two picks already this season and if their defense can’t hold a rookie quarterback without his best receiver at full strength then I’m done with the Texans.

NEW YORK JETS -3 over Philadelphia
I originally thought if the Jets didn’t win against the Browns in Week 1 that there would be a real chance they could be 1-3 heading into their Week 4 bye. That’s the danger of trying to predict wins and losses in the NFL before the season. The Jets’ Weeks 2-4 matchups at Indianapolis, against the Philadelphia and at Miami looked like an early-season gauntlet. But in two weeks, the Colts have proven they haven’t improved since last season, the Eagles are an 0-2 mess and the Dolphins are once again all preseason hype. Now not only are the Jets not going to start the season 1-3, they might be 4-0 heading into their bye and with the Redskins on the schedule in Week 6, they might be 5-0 heading to New England. Nearly five years after we got the 9-2 Jets against the 9-2 Patriots on Monday Night Football, we might get the 5-0 Jets against the 5-0 Patriots this season.

CAROLINA -6.5 over New Orleans
I used to believe in the Saints inside the Superdome no matter what the line was. But after losing five home games last season and losing to the Buccaneers at home last week, that theory is officially over. The Saints are a bad team and they aren’t getting any better and it might be getting close to a complete change in New Orleans. The problem is the Saints have been so inconsistent and winning enough to not bottom out and force an overhaul. This season, they’re 0-2. Last season, they were 7-9. In 2013, they were 11-5 and won a playoff game. In 2012, they were 7-9. In 2011, they were 13-3 and won a playoff game. In 2010, they were 11-5 and lost their first playoff game. The Saints have had just enough success to keep their core in tact even if they haven’t been good enough to win it all since winning it all in 2009.

NEW ENGLAND -14 over Jacksonville
The only team I ever feel confident picking to cover or win in New England is the Giants. The Jaguars’ win at home against the Dolphins was nice and they seem to be finally headed in the right direction without a winning season since 2007, but this is a terrible spot for them to be in. The Patriots just went to Buffalo and put up 507 yards on the Bills’ defense and left Bills fans devastated. Now they return home where they have lost like three games in 15 years and are facing a young and inexperienced Jaguars team. The Patriots will be 3-0 heading into their bye week before going to Dallas to face the Tony Romo- and Dez Bryant-less Cowboys and then going to Indianapolis to try to hang 80 on the Colts for Deflategate. The Patriots are going to be 5-0 before their Week 7 game against the Jets and that’s the next time I will have to really think about the Patriots not covering.

BALTIMORE -2.5 over Cincinnati
The Ravens, along with the Saints and Rams destroyed survivor pools last week. I wasn’t expecting the Ravens to go to Oakland where the Bengals had ran the Raiders out of their own building a week before and lose. The Ravens are in unchartered territory under John Harbaugh at 0-2 and have to play the undefeated Bengals this week and then go to Pittsburgh on a short week next week. This is it for the 2015 Ravens this week and to think in January they were blowing two 14-point leads against the Patriots away from playing the Colts in the AFC Championship Game, which basically would have meant they were going to play in the Super Bowl.

Oakland +3.5 over CLEVELAND
After not having “that game” last week, this game is “that game” this week …

Somewhere someone who isn’t a Raiders fan or a Browns fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Thank about that.

Mike Pettine deciding to name Josh McCown the starting quarterback this week after Johnny Manziel led the team to a win last week is the most Browns decision ever. Josh McCown is a 36-year-old journeyman, who has never been good. He isn’t going to lead the Browns to the playoffs this year and unless Pettine knows 100 percent that his job is safe with another losing season and that he can hope Manziel will be the full-time starter next season, this decision makes no sense. Actually, it makes no sense anyway. After sitting behind Brian Hoyer last season and McCown this season, it’s not like he’s exactly learning from some former MVP or an all-time quarterback or even a decent one. Manziel continuing to sit on the bench is stunting his growth and preventing the Browns from moving on and improving. I hope the Browns are embarrassed by the Raiders.

TENNESSEE +3.5 over Indianapolis
I hate the Colts for starting Deflategate and making the last eight months unbearable after they served as a red carpet in the AFC Championship Game for the Patriots to get into the Super Bowl. So it puts a smile on my face to see Andrew Luck with five interceptions in the first two games and a very average roster around him playing that way. Maybe I will eventually have enough confidence in the Colts to pick them, and maybe that eventually is next week at home against the Jaguars, but for now, I’m selling the Colts hard just like everyone else seems to be.

Atlanta -2 over DALLAS
The Falcons in a dome outside of Georgia aren’t exactly the same as the Falcons inside the Georgia Dome, but they’re certainly better than the Cowboys without their quarterback, without their top wide receiver and their all-time tight end suffering from various injuries being so banged up he might not play.

SEATTLE -15 over Chicago
A 15-point line in the NFL is a rare occurrence. We saw it on nearly a weekly basis during the Patriots’ 2007 season, but it’s very, very, very hard to get a two-touchdown line, especially in Week 3. It takes a perfect storm of events to get a line like this, and in this instance, the perfect storm is the Seahawks being 0-2 and returning home for the first time since the NFC Championship Game and the Bears being a bad 0-2 team without their starting quarterback and top wide receiver heading to the hardest place for a road team to win in the NFL. The Seahawks are going to win this game and most likely won’t give up a single point. This line is too low.

Buffalo +3 over MIAMI
The Dolphins are the biggest frauds in the NFL. I’m sick and tired of annually hearing how this is the Dolphins year and this is the season they are going to challenge the Patriots for the AFC East. After squeaking out a win against the Redskins in Week 1, the Dolphins lost to the Jaguars in Week 2, blowing what was the easiest two-week schedule to open the season in the league. I’m now rooting against the Dolphins.

Denver -3.5 over DETROIT
I was worried about Peyton Manning before the season started and his Week 1 performance made me worry even more. Then the first half of his Week 2 performance made me worry even more. But during the second half of the Broncos’ win at Arrowhead, Manning didn’t look like his old self, but he looked like a guy that figured out how to play and win with what’s left of his arm and abilities. If he can work his magic after traveling to Kansas City on a short week to win on Thursday Night Football, he can certainly win in perfect conditions inside Ford Field against an 0-2 and headed nowhere Lions team.

GREEN BAY -7 over Kansas City
The Packers are the best team in the NFC and their come-from-behind and convincing win over the Seahawks in Week 2 made me realize the NFC is likely to run through Lambeau Field this winter. These touchdown-or-less lines for the Packers aren’t going to be around much longer with the way they’re playing, so you better get in on them before they’re gone.

Last week: 7-9-0
Season: 16-15-1

Blogs • Giants

Sep 17, 2015

NFL Week 2 Picks

It’s hard to know what’s real and what’s not when you only have one week of results to go by and that’s what makes Week 2 the hardest week to pick in the season.

There isn’t an overreaction in the world greater than that after Week 1 in the NFL. After Week 1 we are led to believe that Peyton Manning is finished, Marcus Mariota is the best quarterback ever, the Seahawks’ NFC reign is over, Pete Carroll is an idiot … actually, that’s true … the Vikings are the worst team in football, Joe Flacco is the worst quarterback in the league, the Jets are back and it’s incredible that Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin won two Super Bowls … that might be true too.

Week 1 takes everything you think you know about football and takes all the opinions you made in the offseason and momentarily justifies or destroys them. It can completely change how you go about viewing and picking Week 2 and leave you in a deep state of devastation or financially ruined after the early games if you’re not careful. It’s hard to know what’s real and what’s not when you only have one week of results to go by and that’s what makes Week 2 the hardest week to pick in the season.

(Home team in caps)

KANSAS CITY -3 over Denver
Peyton Manning is lucky his defense bailed him out on Sunday against the Ravens, or the Broncos would be headed to Arrowhead at 0-1 and looking at a possible 0-2 start to the season.

The last two games Peyton has played have to be two of his, if not the worst, of his career. The home playoff debacle after a bye week last season was shocking and whatever he was doing in Week 1 against Baltimore was frightening. I don’t know if this is the Peyton we will see from now until he retires, but if it is, it’s going to be hard to back the Broncos this season.

Houston +3 over CAROLINA
Here’s what I said last week about the Texans:

I’m not sure how Bill O’Brien and Rick Smith came to the conclusion that Brian Hoyer should be the Texans’ starting quarterback over Ryan Mallett. To be fair, it’s not like he named Hoyer the starter over a clearly more talented player and the two likely have the same amount of ability. But did they watch Hoyer play for the Browns? If you’re looking for one touchdown, two interceptions and 227 yards then Hoyer is your guy because that’s what he is and because we know what he is, why not start Mallett? At least there is a chance he might be somewhat good or at least better than Hoyer.

Guess who’s the starting quarterback for the Texans this week? Ryan Mallett.

I was a little off on Hoyer’s game since he threw for 236 yards, one touchdown and only one interception, but if I knew that it was inevitable that he would lose his starting job, how could Bill O’Brien not know this? The Texans wasted one of 16 games last week in what was a very winnable home game and a game they lost by 7 despite Hoyer doing his absolute best to lose it. With the Texans’ defense, Mallett doesn’t even have to be great, he just has to be better than Hoyer, and that’s not hard to do.

NEW ORLEANS -10 over Tampa Bay
Ah, the Saints in the Superdome. There are a few things that you can can count on when picking NFL games like always taking the points in NFC East matchups, always taking the points in Steelers-Ravens games and always taking the Saints at home in the Superdome to cover any spread. There might not be any guarantees in gambling, but those are the three things you can actually feel confident about.

Jameis Winston gave Marcus Mariota a headstart on everyone thinking the Buccaneers drafted the wrong guy No. 1 and in the 30 for 30 about the two in 20 years, there is a lot of video from Week 1 of 2015 to sort through. After this week’s loss in New Orleans, the Bucs go to Houston and by then will be 0-3 and the countdown clock until Lovie Smith’s firing will be closing in on zero.

PITTSBURGH -6 over San Francisco
The 49ers will only go as far as Carlos Hyde takes them. I don’t think Colin Kaepernick is very good since he hasn’t been able to adjust to the league after it adjusted to him, making Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith and Vernon Davis non-factors, which had made the offense revolve around Hyde’s legs. The Steelers had 10 days off and coming off a loss and having their home opener and having the opportunity to prepare to shut down Hyde is a recipe for disaster for the 49ers, whose over/under win total was 6.5. This is going to be one of those 9.5 losses.

MINNESOTA -2.5 over Detroit
When it comes to Week 1 overreactions, the idea that the Vikings might be the worst team in football is at the top of the list. A bad game on the road in San Francisco against a team everyone had left for dead despite being two-plus years removed from the Super Bowl and one-plus year removed from the NFC Championship Game isn’t going to end the Vikings’ season. There’s no way an offense with Teddy Bridgewater, Adrian Peterson, Mike Wallace and Charles Johnson can be as bad as they were in San Francisco, and there’s no way the Vikings defense is going to let someone embarrass them again the way that Carlos Hyde did in his debut as a starting running back.

BUFFALO +1.5 over New England
After the Giants-Falcons game, this is the game I care the most about this week. Rex Ryan and his 1-0 Bills that have everyone talking because they routed the fraud Colts against Bill Belichick and his 1-0 Patriots that have everyone talking because whenever they win a game for the rest of eternity, there’s going to be some report that cheating might have been involved.

The Rex Ryan Bills looked exactly like the Rex Ryan Jets last week, and that’s not such a bad thing for going up against the Patriots because the Rex Ryan Jets had as much success as anyone not named the New York Football Giants against the Patriots in recent years. A Bills win will have Rex running his mouth as well as he ever did in New York and a Patriots loss might finally get some of the talk about the air pressure in footballs, the frequencies on headsets, the taping of other team’s sidelines and all the other rumored cheating ways of the Patriots to potentially fade. I can dream.

Arizona -2.5 over CHICAGO
Here’s what I said last week about the Bears:

This season I have made a pledge to myself to go hard after the Bears. I’m not getting suckered into thinking they can or will be good and I’m not changing my mind on them.

And I know exactly what the Bears are trying to do me right now. They lost a close game 31-23 to the Packers at home (even though they scored a very late touchdown to make it an eight-point game) and they want me to think, “Hey, the Bears nearly covered against the NFC favorites and now they’re home again against a much lesser offense giving points? Why not take the Bears?” In the past I would have fallen for this trap game, picked the Bears and then watched Jay Cutler throw the game away despite having two stud wide receivers (one of them is now with the Jets), a top running back and a great receiving tight end. Not this year. I’m not falling for the Bears this year.

CLEVELAND +2 over Tennessee
When Johnny Manziel entered Sunday’s game against the Jets and immediately threw a touchdown pass to take the lead, the thought of the Johnny Football era taking off at the hands of the Jets made me smile and feel warm inside. But after that play, Manziel looked exactly like the guy we saw last season, who couldn’t win the starting quarterback job over Brian Hoyer, and the Jets went on to blow out the Browns.

No matter what happens in this game, we all lose. If the Titans win, Marcus Mariota is 2-0 and the best quarterback in history. If the Browns win, it’s going to be Johnny Football all day and all night for the next week. I think I would rather hear about Manziel than Mariota, but since I have been a full-time passenger on the Johnny Football bandwagon, a home loss to the Titans, will have me jumping ship for the foreseeable future.

San Diego +3.5 over CINCINNATI
It’s the Battle of Which Team Has Screwed Me Over More Over the Years. I don’t really know who is worse in this situation when it comes to having to back either Philip Rivers or Andy Dalton, but like the Bears, I made a promise to myself to stay away from the Bs this season: the Bears, Bengals and Browns. I have given myself one mulligan for this season, and unfortunately, my wanting Johnny Football to work out led me to use that mulligan this week to pick the Browns. If the Browns win, I retain my Bs mulligan and can use it on a future game, so maybe at some point I will pick the Bengals, but it won’t be today.

St. Louis -4 over WASHINGTON
I was more than scared when the Dolphins were effing around in Washington last week and failing to cover for most of the game against the Redskins. But maybe the Dolphins looking like the Dolphins I feared they might be in 2015 was a blessing in disguise. Sure, everyone who picked them to cover and who picked them in their survivor pools had to sweat out the win, but their seven-point win helped make this week’s line lower against the impressive Rams defense. So thank you, Dolphins for doing just enough to win to make Week 2 easier. I know that why’s you underperformed so greatly and not because you’re once again going to define “average NFL team” this season.

NEW YORK GIANTS -1.5 over Atlanta
Can you have a must-win game in Week 2? That’s a question I have written about the Giants for the now the fifth straight season. After Sunday night’s disaster that left me speechless and wondering if I even wanted to be a part of the 2015 NFL season or if I ever wanted to watch football again, I actually got over Tom Coughlin’s clock management and Eli Manning’s score management fairly fast. Sure, I spun the situation into the fact that the Giants were supposed to lose in Dallas anyway and that they just need to split the season series with the Cowboys, so they can beat them at MetLife in October, but that’s what fans of losing teams do: they make excuses. I don’t want to have to make any excuses this week. The Falcons outside of the Georgia Dome are very much like the Saints outside of the Superdome, and with the Redskins on Thursday Night Football in Week 3, I should be writing in Week 4 about the 2-1 Giants.

Baltimore -6.5 over OAKLAND
The Ravens went to Denver as 5-point underdogs and lost 19-13 despite Joe Flacco throwing for 117 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions. The Raiders, meanwhile, lost Derek Carr for most of their game against the Bengals and lost 33-13. There’s just no way I can pick the Raiders here after picking them last week and feel even the slightest bit confident that they will cover against the Ravens. There’s no way at all.

Miami -6.5 over JACKSONVILLE
I made the mistake of backing the Jaguars in Week 1 and thinking they might actually turn it around this season. They still might since there are 15 games left, but they also put up nine points at home against the Panthers, and I’m just not ready to continue to have confidence in the Jaguars. I’d much rather back the overhyped and definitely-going-to-underachieve Dolphins.

Dallas +5.5 over PHILADELPHIA
The best-case scenario for this game is that both teams beat the crap out of each and tie. If the Cowboys win, they will be 2-0 and 2-0 in the division. If the Eagles win, they will be 1-1 and so will the Cowboys, and if the Giants win, the whole division (not including the Redskins since they don’t count) will be 1-1. Having everyone be 1-1 is better for the Giants’ playoff chances to have the entire NFC East be clustered. I will be rooting for the Eagles, but knowing these teams and NFC East games as a whole, it will be decided by three or less.

GREEN BAY -3.5 over Seattle
I was in Seattle when these two teams played in the NFC Championship Game and I wanted the Seahawks to win because I thought they posed a bigger threat to the Patriots in the Super Bowl. I was right until Pete Carroll went and ruined the Super Bowl and the entire offseason. Eff, Seattle and eff the 12s. Sunday, I’m a Cheesehead.

New York Jets +7 over INDIANAPOLIS
It’s nice that once again the Jets got a cupcake game in Week 1 and their fans think the Jets are back and the King of New York and all that. It’s even nicer that they have to go on the road to Indianapolis and face the Colts, who were embarrassed last week and will be looking to go out of their way to erase their awful offensive performance in Buffalo. I think the Jets will cover, but it’s more important to me that the Colts win.

Last week: 9-6-1

Tag: Peyton Manning

NFL Week 6 Picks

NFL Week 5 Picks

NFL Week 4 Picks

NFL Week 3 Picks

NFL Week 2 Picks