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Tag: Max Scherzer

Blogs • Email Exchanges

May 19, 2015

Here’s to Hoping Bryce Harper Becomes a Yankee

Bryce Harper is in his fourth season, is just 22 years old and is becoming the best player in the league. I can’t wait until he becomes a Yankee.

Bryce Harper

The Yankees went 2-5 in Tampa Bay and Kansas City and the embarrassing start to the road trip has led to a lot of the Yankees shaving off their mustaches. Obviously the Yankees’ scoring two runs or less in those five losses is because of facial hair.

With the Yankees and Nationals meeting for a short two-game series in Washington, James Meyerriecks of Federal Baseball joined me to talk about Bryce Harper’s incredible start to the season, the impact of Max Scherzer at the front of the rotation, what’s wrong with Stephen Strasburg and how easily the Nationals will win the NL East.

Keefe: In Bryce Harper’s rookie year in 2012, he hit 22 home runs at the age of 19. In 2013, he hit 20. Last season, he hit 13. It’s May 19 and he already has 14 this season and he’s 22 years old! I said 22!

Aside from home runs, Harper leads the league in runs scored, RBIs, walks, on-base percentage and slugging percentage.

How fun has it been to watch Harper over these three-plus seasons go from a teenage to possibly the most feared hitter in the majors? And I guess how devastating will it be when he’s a Yankee in a few years?!

Meyerriecks: Overall, it’s been a pleasure watching Harper grow before our eyes. That’s not to say there haven’t been some growing pains, though. Nationally, we always see labels like cocky or brash or immature. Harper’s youthful exuberance is part of what makes him such a fun player to watch for Nationals fans, but it’s also why he can be such a lightning rod with the media. Unfortunately, that youthful exuberance has actually had quite a few instances where it’s cost both Harper and the Nats over the past few seasons. He’s cost himself quite a bit of time due to injury after crashing into walls and tearing a ligament in his thumb on a head first slide.

As for his approach at the plate, that’s as mature as it gets. Early this season, he’s really showcased what aregenerally considered to be old player skills in the batter’s box. It’s always a fun cat and mouse game watching pitchers try to attack him. At just 22 years old, Harper is already growing into a player who very rarely swings at a “pitcher’s pitch”. He’s dictating almost every plate appearance with his discipline and has been reaping the benefits over the first month and a half. This isn’t something that happened over night, but it’s a part of his game that hasreally evolved so far this season.

As for the future Yankee question, we’ll see how it plays out. Harper is a Scott Boras client, so it would be a major surprise if he doesn’t test free agency when he’s eligible. We’ll cross that bridge when we get there, though. Harper will be a National through at least 2018, so I’ll enjoy him while he’s here.

Keefe: Every day the Nationals send somewhat of a household name to the mound with Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmerman, Doug Fister and Gio Gonzalez. It wasn’t that long ago that Gonzalez was either the team’s No. 1 or No. 2 starter and now he’s either the No. 4 or No. 5.

In New York, with Masahiro Tanaka on the disabled list, It’s Michael Pineda, CC Sabathia, Nathan Eovaldi, Adam Warren and Chris Capuano, which is probably the Yankees’ worst rotation since they were trotting Sidney Ponson and Darrell Rasner out there way too much in 2008.

What’s it like knowing that every game you might have the better starting pitching going and have a chance to win? I only ask because I miss that feeling.

Meyerriecks: Part of what’s so fun about this rotation is that they not only have multiple aces, but amazing depth. All five of the Nats starters are capable of going out and throwing zeros up on the board every time they step on the diamond. What’s scariest for other teams (particularly within the NL East) is that they even have depth beyond that starting five, with Tanner Roark having moved to the bullpen after going 15-10 with a 2.85 ERA last season.

It’s awesome knowing that, regardless of who is up next in the rotation, there’s potential for a dominant performance.  Even when the team is scuffling a bit, it’s never really time to panic. There’s this old adage about momentum only being as good as the next day’s starting pitcher. The Nats’ rotation depth means that they’re always just a day away from having a terrific shot at snapping a losing streak. They’ve come a long ways from the days when John Lannan was getting the opening day nod.

Keefe: I wasn’t happy this offseason when the Yankees decided to not be in on Max Scherzer, Jon Lester or James Shields. Given the concerns and unknowns of most of the Yankees rotation, I felt they needed to make a play for at least one of the three best starters available on the free-agent market to solidify their staff, but they didn’t and now I’m stuck watching Adam Warren and Chris Capuano make up 40 percent of the rotation.

The Nationals signed Scherzer to a seven-year, $210 million deal and so far he has lived up to his deal as he has a 1.75 ERA and somehow, but somehow has three losses. In those three losses, he gave up three earned runs combined and he also has a no-decision in which he allowed on earned run over six innings. From past Yankees free-agent pitching signings (most of which didn’t work out), I can say there is usually an adjustment period to a starter on a new team trying to prove himself or prove his worth, but that hasn’t been the case for Scherzer.

Have you been impressed with how good Scherzer has been in his return to the NL or did you expect this kind of performance?

Meyerriecks: At the time that the Nats signed him, I expected to hear a lot about how signing Scherzer was unnecessary with all of that rotation depth that you brought up in the previous question. With Zimmermann and Fister due to hit free agency after this season, Scherzer’s signing seemed like a move to stabilize the rotation beyond 2015. It certainly seemed like a deal that would improve the team this season as well, and it has.

Based on what he’d already done in his career, I don’t think there was much doubt that his on-field performance would fit right in on the Nats. He did win the 2013 AL Cy Young. He led the majors in strikeouts from 2012-2014. He ranked 22nd in ERA (3.24) and 6th in FIP (2.94) over that same span, so there was little doubt that his profile added an awful lot of talent to the 2015 Nats.

However, what’s been most amazing is how the team and the city have embraced him. At the time that the Nats signed Scherzer, we heard lots of stories that Scherzer wanted to sign with the Nats and that, unlike what we’d usually expect to hear, he was as aggressive about pursuing a contract in D.C. as the Nats were in pursuing him. When I heard that, I thought it was all lip service. Scherzer didn’t exactly have ties to the area. He grew up (here … yeah … Nats fan in St. Louis) in St. Louis rooting for the (cough) Cardinals.

After watching him these first couple of months, I don’t think it was lip service at all. I can’t put my finger on why it’s worked out so perfectly. It’s possible that all the Boras ties on the Nats roster play a role with how comfortable he immediately seemed in the clubhouse. Scherzer hasn’t only fit in on the Nats roster, but he’s immediately stepped in as kind of the class clown. He’s quickly become both a fan favorite and a favorite in the Nats clubhouse.

Keefe: What is wrong with Stephen Strasburg? Last year’s strikeout leader still has over a strikeout per inning, but he’s allowed 55 hits in 40 2/3 innings, has a 5.98 ERA and 1.648 WHIP.

I thought the Yankees dodged a bullet by not seeing Scherzer and also Strasburg in this two-game series, but maybe I should have wanted them to see Strasburg right now?

Meyerriecks: It hasn’t been pretty watching Strasburg so far this season. He did tweak his ankle in spring training, which led to him wearing a brace. This seemed to do a number on his mechanics a bit, which led to him leaving a start a few weeks ago with pain under his shoulder blade. He’s dealing with injuries and mechanical issues, and this seems to have done a number on his command. It’s a never ending cycle. The next time he has a rough start, we’re going to hear that he’s breathing out of the wrong eyelid.

I kid, I kid. The command and mechanics have been the major issues, but there’s also some small sample size noise in there. He’s allowed a .380 BABIP to this point so far this season. His career BABIP against is .304, and the league average is about .295. While his batted ball profile suggests that his BABIP should be a bit higher than we’re used to seeing (he’s allowing a 26.5 percent line drive rate!), there’s no way that doesn’t start to normalize some. When the BABIP starts to come down, so will the WHIP… and the ERA. The stuff has still been there, so hopefully he can get more comfortable (healthier?) and put the mechanical issues behind him.

Keefe: The Nationals started the season 1-4 and were 7-13 on April 27. But since then, they have gone 15-4, are now 22-17 and trail the Mets by one game in the NL East.

Before the season, everyone picked the Nationals to win the East and there were a lot of predictions for them to go to the World Series and win it. The Mets still don’t seem postseason-ready, the Marlins are in their usual state of disarray, the Braves are trying to rebuild and the Phillies are a disaster. The NL East should be the easiest of the six divisions to win, especially for a Nationals team that won’t endure long periods of losing because of their starting rotation.

Is there any doubt in your mind that the Nationals will win their division?

Meyerriecks: If you’d asked me this question two or three weeks ago, I might have had a little more doubt. The Nats are still the best team in the NL East. They were two or three weeks ago, too, but the early season slide had left the Mets banking an eight game lead. Even over five months, being eight games better than another good team is a difficult chore. With just one game separating the two after these past few weeks, there’s not much doubt in my mind that the Nats will overtake them and win the division.

The Mets are probably closer to prime time than many of us thought they were entering the season. Harvey and deGrom form a dominant 1-2 punch atop the rotation. Bartolo Colon has become one of my favorite pitchers to watch (even though I still curse Omar Minaya about that trade back in the day) in his old age. I hear that they have some Norse god that they brought up who is pretty good, too. While Harvey, deGrom, and Syndergaard will form an imposing front of the rotation, I expect them all to have a few rough stretches this season due to inexperience and (in Harvey’s case) fatigue in his first year back from Tommy John surgery.

The Mets offense and bullpen are real hit or miss, and I think that’s what will ultimately keep them from challenging the Nats for the division over the long haul. The Marlins are talented, but they’ve dug too deep a hole for themselves and just recently made their GM their manager. As an Expos holdover, it’s fun to watch Jeffrey Loria’s (new) team be a complete train wreck. The Braves have been kind of a nice surprise so far this season, but they don’t have the offensive depth around Freddie Freeman to sustain a run. The Phillies just need to find a way to trade away any of their players that are over 30 and maybe they’ll be competitive by 2019.

The Nats will take the NL East … no problem.

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Blogs • Email Exchanges • Yankees

Apr 20, 2015

The Shane Greene Trade Has Been an Atrocity

The Yankees picked up a much-needed sweep of the Rays over the weekend to get back to .500 and showed some consistency for the first time this season. Thanks to A-Rod’s impressive start to the

Shane Greene

The Yankees picked up a much-needed sweep of the Rays over the weekend to get back to .500 and showed some consistency for the first time this season. Thanks to A-Rod’s impressive start to the season and the zeroes put up by the back end of the bullpen, the Yankees are 6-6, but have played bad enough to be much worse. Things aren’t going to get any easier on this 10-game road trip with the next stop being Detroit where the Tigers have gotten off to the best start in the league.

With the Yankees and Tigers meeting for the first time this season, I did an email exchange with Rob Rogacki of Bless You Boys to talk about David Price’s impending free agency and future, the three-team trade with the Yankees that brought Shane Greene to Detroit and the end of the Austin Jackson era with last season’s trade to the Mariners.

Keefe: David Price has allowed one earned run in 22 1/3 innings over three starts. Incredibly, he has only won one of those three starts because of a lack of run support, but at age 29 (he’ll be 30 in August), Price is off to his best start in any season. Coincidentally, he is a free agent at the end of the season.

I have long wanted Price on the Yankees and it seems like he is following the CC Sabathia 2008 blueprint of having a career year in a contract year and with the money Max Scherzer (who is one year older than Price) got from the Nationals (seven years, $210 million) this offseason, Price is easily going to match that number and likely exceed it. Hopefully, it’s the Yankees giving him that offer.

What do you think happens with Price after 2015? What offer do you want the Tigers to make him?

Rogacki: There were whispers about the Tigers and Price negotiating a long-term extension during spring training, but those voices have all but died, and the two sides are reportedly nowhere close to an agreement. The Tigers haven’t issued a press release like they did with Max Scherzer last season, which leads me to believe that there is hope that he could end up back in Detroit in 2016. Price seems to be much more comfortable with the Tigers this year, and has made fast friends with rotation stalwart Justin Verlander. If Price does not re-sign with the Tigers, it will probably be because of money, not a desire to leave the organization.

I cringe at the thought of giving a 30-year-old starter the kind of contract that Scherzer got, but I think that this is the bare minimum it will take to retain Price. The lefthander checks off all the boxes you want in an ace, and his game should age as well as one could expect out of a pitcher in today’s era. I think a lot of Tigers fans were more amicable to the idea of extending Price over Scherzer, and I have a hard time imagining that the Tigers won’t put together a serious offer this offseason.

Keefe: Miguel Cabrera is off to another MVP-candidate start to the season, which is to be expected from the best hitter in the world. It’s been just over a year since he signed the 10-year, $292 million deal with the Tigers and while it seemed like too long and too much money for a player at his age with his build with his future projection, I loved the deal.

Sure, people are going to complain about it because people complain about every deal in every sport, so it didn’t surprise me that people had an issue with overpaying the back-to-back AL MVP for his 30s. Like I always say with the Yankees, “It’s not my money,” and it can keep a player like Cabrera on your roster for the rest of his prime, then worry about his later years when they come.

What were your thoughts on the Cabrera deal?

Rogacki: While the Tigers have one of the higher payrolls in the game, their budget is still a step or two below the eye-popping numbers that the Yankees and Dodgers are paying out, and $30 million per year for an aging hitter — even one as good as Cabrera — is going to put a strain on their budget going forward. They would have more roster and financial flexibility without Cabrera, especially in the later parts of the decade.

That said, I love that the Tigers went out of their way to retain Cabrera, who is well on his way to Cooperstown (and the requisite statue at Comerica Park that comes along with it). Cabrera is one of the best hitters in MLB history and a joy to watch everyday, and his playful personality makes him all the more entertaining for Tigers fans and opponents alike. Hall of Fame players generally stay very productive well into their 30s, and Cabrera has definitely fit into that mold so far throughout his career.

Keefe: I miss Shane Greene. A 2009 15th-round draft pick, he finally reached the majors last year and struck out 81 in 78 2/3 innings. He looked like he might be a future staple of the rotation and maybe one of the first reliable homegrown starters the Yankees have produced with Brian Cashman as general manager. Instead, he was traded to the Tigers in a three-team deal with the Diamondbacks that brought back Didi Gregorius in return.

Gregorius has been awful through his first 12 games as a Yankee. He is hitting .189/.225/.189 without an extra-base hit, several baserunning blunders and for all we heard about his exceptional Gold Glove-caliber fielding, he hasn’t made a play yet that 40-year-old Derek Jeter couldn’t make.

Is there any chance we can redo that trade? What are your thoughts about Greene and his 3-0 start?

Rogacki: I have been a fan of the trade that brought Greene to Detroit from the start. I was very impressed with his two performances against the Tigers last season, and after going back to watch a few more of his outings during the offseason, my optimism had not waned one bit. Greene pounded the lower half of the strike zone and showed flashes of a developing changeup, one that has served him very well throughout his first three starts in 2015. Greene has an underrated cutter and changeup, and has also started elevating his four-seam fastball in two-strike counts.

This trade isn’t going to look this lopsided for long. Greene is due to regress from his microscopic ERA, and Gregorius’ batted ball profile indicates that he has been somewhat unlucky early on in 2015. His above average defense will start to shine through at some point. I think the Tigers are clear winners in this trade simply because they gave up the least to get what looks to be a mid-rotation starter in Greene, but I think the move was a necessary one for the Yankees (though not the splashy one their fanbase would have liked).

Keefe: Last year at the trade deadline, the Tigers traded Austin Jackson to the Mariners in the three-team deal that landed them David Price. Jackson, another former Yankee who was traded to the Tigers for Curtis Granderson before the 2010 season, never really lived up to the expectations that were placed on him, struck out a lot and struggled to get on base the last few years.

I remember being upset that he wouldn’t reach the majors with the Yankees after he was traded and wondered why they would want to give away a 21-year-old future center fielder for an aging one. But looking back on it, I would have to say both teams came out even on that aspect of the trade and we were able to get rid of Phil Coke and you were able to get Max Scherzer, so it was a win-win all around.

What were your thoughts when the Tigers traded Jackson to the Mariners?

Rogacki: While Jackson struggled for long stretches with the Tigers, his first few seasons made Tigers fans all but forget about Granderson. Jackson was an elite defender in center field during his first four years in Detroit, ranking among the very best centerfielders in baseball in nearly every advanced defensive metric in the book. His penchant for striking out was frustrating at times, but he was an above average leadoff hitter whose value far outweighed his cost to the organization. Jackson was a fan favorite, and the standing ovation he got when he was removed from a game after being traded was one of the most surreal baseball moments I have ever seen.

Personally, I was ecstatic for the deal. It’s not every day that you land an elite talent like Price, and while the cost was steep (Jackson and cost-controlled Drew Smyly were both shipped out), the chance to see Price pitch in the Olde English D was exciting. I have continued to follow both former Tigers with their new teams, and am surprised at how much Jackson has struggled with the Mariners. I think the trade will be unfairly judged on whether the Tigers win a World Series this year, but I think the move was the right one to make for this team.

Keefe: The Tigers are off to a hot 10-2 start in a year in which I thought they would have a down year. They lost Max Scherzer to free agency, Justin Verlander has yet to pitch and I didn’t think their offense was as deep as it had been in years past. But the Tigers have kept on rolling despite the roster turnover and despite the question marks in the bullpen. It seems as though Dave Dombrowski has done it again in what was supposed a deep and hard-to-win AL Central.

What were your expectations for the team entering the season and have they changed after this 10-2 start?

Rogacki: Expectations for this team have definitely skyrocketed after such a strong start to the season. The last two times the Tigers started a season off this fast, they won the World Series, a fact that is not lost on Tigers fans. The starting pitching has been the biggest surprise, both for positive and negative reasons. I already touched on Greene’s hot start, but Alfredo Simon is coming off the best start of his career (and will start tonight’s opening game). Anibal Sanchez, on the other hand, has already allowed more home runs this season than he did in all of 2014. The Tigers definitely need an effective Verlander if they are going to reach the playoffs, but they have been able to withstand his absence so far.

There have been some surprising contributions from the offense as well, but overall I thought that this unit had the potential to be one of the very best in baseball. Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez might be the best one-two punch in baseball, and J.D. Martinez was coming off a red-hot spring training. Yoenis Cespedes was hitting like his usual self prior to last season’s trade to Boston, and I was very bullish on Nick Castellanos taking a step forward in season two. All of those things have happened so far, and more. Jose Iglesias is translating one of the best contact rates in baseball into a not-gonna-stay-that-way .436 batting average, and Anthony Gose and Rajai Davis have become an effective platoon at the top of the order. This lineup is deeper than many people expected, and will make life difficult for many a pitcher in 2015.

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Podcasts • Yankees

Apr 10, 2015

Podcast: Jared Carrabis

The Yankees and Red Sox meet for the first time in 2015 this weekend and once again it brings up question of why A-Rod is hated, but David Ortiz is loved by baseball fans.

Alex Rodriguez and David Ortiz

It’s the first weekend of the season and the first Yankees-Red Sox series of the season. And nothing says Yankees-Red Sox like having the two teams play in Games 4, 5 and 6 of the season with Friday and Saturday matchups of Nathan Eovaldi-Wade Miley and Adam Warren-Joe Kelly.

Jared Carrabis of Barstool Sports Boston and Section 10 Podcast joined me to talk about the fading Yankees-Red Sox rivalry, why A-Rod is wrongfully hated by Boston fans, what would have happened if A-Rod had been traded to the Red Sox, the 2004 ALCS, if Red Sox fans miss Adrian Gonzalez and how Pablo Sandoval might become Carl Crawford 2.0 in Boston.

Also, Keefe To The City has partnered with The Allie Way Sports Bar on East 70th Street between 1st and York in the Upper East Side for Yankees Sunday Funday Viewing Parties this season. The first one is Sunday, April 19 at 1 p.m. when the Yankees head to Tampa to face the Rays. Come to The Allie Way for the game and enjoy drink specials, including $30 (cash) open bar for the entire game!

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Blogs • Email Exchanges • Yankees

Aug 26, 2014

A Similar Situation for Yankees-Tigers Series

The Yankees’ three-game series in Detroit will likely serve as the turning point of their season one way or another after they spent the last week climbing out of their hole.

Stephen Drew

A five-game winning streak has the Yankees miraculously alive in the AL East and on the doorstep for the second wild card. This week’s three-game series in Detroit could put the Yankees in prime position to clinch a playoff berth over the the final 30 games of the year or it could put the Yankees back in the same hole they just spent the past week climbing out of.

With the Yankees and Tigers meeting for the first time in Detroit and the final time this season, I did an email exchange with Rob Rogacki of Bless You Boys to talk about what has happened to the Tigers since the trade deadline, the breakout season from Rick Porcello and the futures of Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer.

Keefe: I saw on Sunday that you tweeted, “Tomorrow, we are all Yankees fans,” with the Yankees playing a makeup game in Kansas City. The Yankees got the job done in Kansas City with an 8-1 win on Monday night and with a Mariners’ loss in Texas, the Yankees now trail the second wild-card spot by just 2.5 games. I know I shouldn’t be excited about the Yankees being in play for the second wild card, but that’s where injuries and an underachieving offense have left me. But your jump on the Yankees bandwagon only lasted a few hours as they now head to Detroit for a three-game series with your Tigers in a series that both teams desperately need to win.

On the day of the trade deadline, everyone sort of penciled in the Tigers and A’s for the ALCS because of their moves to strengthen the already strongest rotations in the league. But over the last four weeks, the Tigers and A’s have played themselves out of running away with their respective divisions and the Tigers aren’t even holding on to a playoff spot right now.

When the Yankees played the Tigers at the beginning of August, they looked like a different offensively and it was almost as if Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez didn’t beat you then no one would. Did the Tigers make one too many moves that actually made them worse since July 31?

Rogacki: I think that the pair of moves the Tigers made at the deadline definitely improved the team, especially given how well David Price has pitched so far. Price has a 2.35 ERA and 2.90 FIP in four starts in a Tigers uniform, but is just 1-1 thanks to a lack of run support. Price tossed a one-hitter against his former club in his last start, but lost 1-0 on an unearned run.

Losing Austin Jackson at the deadline definitely hurt the offense — especially given how he had been hitting in the second half — but the team’s struggles largely fall on the big bats in the lineup. Ian Kinsler had a .515 OPS in the second half prior to the team’s last road trip and scored just eight runs in a month-long span. Miguel Cabrera’s .820 OPS is excellent for most mortals, but far below what the Tigers expect of their $292 million man. Victor Martinez took a little while to recover from an oblique strain that hobbled him in July, but has turned things around with a .992 OPS in August.

The hitters aren’t the only problem, though. Justin Verlander and Anibal Sanchez have both missed starts this month, leading the Tigers to use guys like Robbie Ray and Buck Farmer in the rotation, with left-hander Kyle Lobstein tentatively scheduled to start on Thursday. The team’s lack of starting pitching depth is finally starting to be exposed, but with Verlander already back and Sanchez not far behind, the team looks poised to climb back into the playoff picture.

Keefe: I never understood the hype and attention paid to Rick Porcello as he grew up in the majors over the last five years, but now everyone is seeing why the Tigers have always been so high on him with 14 wins, a 3.10 ERA and a league-leading three shutouts. Porcello has become the front-end starter the Tigers hoped he would when they picked him in the first round in 2007.

What has been the biggest difference in the back-end starter Porcello was in his first five seasons and what he has become in 2014?

Rogacki: Porcello’s big leap actually came in 2013, but largely went unnoticed thanks to an unimpressive 13 wins and a 4.32 ERA. He posted the highest strikeout rate and strikeout-to-walk ratio of his career, resulting in a career-best 3.53 fielding independent pitching (FIP) measure. If that isn’t enough, look at what he did in the second half. From July 1st onward, Porcello was 9-2 with a 3.57 ERA in 14 starts. He held opponents to two runs or fewer in seven of those starts and logged his first complete game in a victory over the White Sox.

This season, Porcello’s strikeout rate has returned to earth, but his walk rate has also dropped. He is holding left-handed hitters to a .673 OPS, by far the best mark of his career. Opponents also have a .215 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) on ground balls against Porcello, well below the league average of .250. Part of this may be to weaker contact induced by Porcello locating his pitches, and part of this may be due to the Tigers’ improved infield defense. Third baseman Nick Castellanos and shortstop Eugenio Suarez have not been very impressive, but Ian Kinsler and Miguel Cabrera have statistically been two of the best defenders in baseball at their respective positions.

Keefe: In 2012, Justin Verlander was virtually as good as he was in his Cy Young an MVP season in 2011. In 2013, his ERA jumped to the mid-3s and his WHIP climbed and while he still had a good year, it wasn’t what we had become used to after his previous two seasons. Now in 2014, at age 31, in the second year of a seven-year, $180 million deal, Verlander has had a lot season.

Verlander has only had one full sub-.500 season in his career (when he led the league in losses with 17 on a bad 2008 Tigers team) and that same year was the only year his ERA was above 3.66 (it was 4.84), but this year he’s on his way to having his second-worst season of his career and his worst in six years.

What has happened to Justin Verlander? Do you just chalk this up as a lost season for him or are you worried about his future and his contract?

Rogacki: There’s always some level of worry when a pitcher gets a contract as long and expensive as the one that the Tigers gave Verlander prior to the 2013 season, but I’m not very concerned about his results in 2014. Verlander had core muscle repair surgery in early January — similar to the surgery Miguel Cabrera had last October —  which seems to have sapped his stamina. He has a 3.67 ERA in innings 1-3 this season, but that figure jumps to 5.33 in innings 4-6 and 8.04 in the seventh inning or later.

Verlander hinted earlier this year that he still doesn’t feel 100 percent after the surgery, something that Cabrera reiterated around the All-Star break. It will be interesting to see how both stars come back in 2015, provided neither runs into any more setbacks along the way.

Keefe: Max Scherzer turned down a reported six-year, $144 million from the Tigers after his Cy Young-winning season, putting his right arm and future financial status on the line every time he throws a baseball. But this season, at 29, Scherzer has followed up his 2013 21-win season with another impressive year and with starting pitching as coveted as it’s ever been, he is likely to blow away the $144 million the Tigers offered him.

If I were Scherzer, I would have taken the guaranteed $144 million knowing that on any pitch at any time, you might never get a chance to make that kind of money again. But as long as he is able to stay healthy for another month (and possibly October if the Tigers get there), his gamble will have paid off.

Is there any chance Scherzer is a Tiger in 2015 and what do you think he will end up getting?

Rogacki: I don’t ever want to doubt what Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski is capable of, but the trade for David Price seems to have all but sealed Scherzer’s fate. The Tigers seem reluctant to offer him a contract longer than six years, while Scherzer appears to be after the biggest payday possible (a safe assumption when you’re talking about a Scott Boras client). If he hits the free agent market, I would not be surprised to see Scherzer become baseball’s second $200 million pitcher, especially considering that he has pitched at an ace level since mid-May of 2012. I would love to see him back with the Tigers next season — he’s as outgoing and goofy as baseball players get — but not at the kind of money he appears to be looking for.

Keefe: As this series starts, the Yankees are 6 games back of the Orioles and 2.5 games back of the second wild card. The Tigers are 1 ½ games back of the Royals and ½ game back of the second wild card. I think I’m safe in assuming that you didn’t expect the Tigers to be going down to the wire for a playoff spot when the season started or after they landed David Price and I know that on July 31 you didn’t think they might be looking at a scenario where they have to play a one-game playoff or one in which they don’t reach the postseason at all.

What are your feelings on the state of the Tigers on Aug. 26 and after their final 33 games, where will they be?

Rogacki: The Tigers definitely aren’t where any of us expected them to be at this point in the season, especially given how good they have looked at stretches this year. That said, I think that the Royals’ recent hot streak will end in the next week or two, and the Tigers will win their fourth consecutive AL Central crown. With 27 of their final 33 games against AL Central opponents — and the other six games at Comerica Park — they have plenty of time to jump ahead of the Royals and get back into the postseason.

But that doesn’t mean we don’t appreciate the help. Nicely done last night, Yanks.

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Blogs • Yankees

Oct 26, 2012

How I Will Remember the 2012 Yankees

The 2012 Yankees will be remembered as a failure. Not because they didn’t win the World Series, but because they didn’t even show up.

How will you remember the 2012 Yankees? It’s a question that’s staring me down like something you have to answer for your senior year high school yearbook.

I’d like to believe in the whole “Win the World Series or the season is a failure” concept, but even I know that is an impossible expectation even if it sounds good and makes the Yankees organization sound good for supposedly living by it. But you can’t win the World Series every year. You can only hope you get to October and then from there get good pitching, some timely hits, a few lucky bounces and avoid the injury bug.

On Tuesday night, I was at a bar with my roommates and Game 4 of the 1996 World Series was on YES. The Yankees trailed 6-0 before Derek Jeter, Bernie Williams, Cecil Fielder and Charlie Hayes were able to make it 6-3 in the sixth. The Yankees tied it up in the eighth on a three-run home run from Jim Leyritz, and the bartender actually changed the channel to NBA preseason basketball in the middle of Leyritz’s at-bat. But as much as I wanted to see that home run off Mark Wohlers for the 593rd time, I also didn’t want to see it. I wanted to be reminded of what October was like when the Yankees were going to find a way to win, but I also didn’t want to be reminded of what October was like when the Yankees were going to find a way to win.

The 2012 Yankees wouldn’t have come back against Denny Neagle. They wouldn’t have even scored against him. The 1996 Yankees lost the first two games at home of the World Series and then had to go to Atlanta, to the home of the best team in baseball over the last two years, and they came out alive. The 2012 Yankees lost the first two games of the ALCS at home against the 88-win Tigers and then had to go to Detroit and try to send the series back to the Bronx. They shouldn’t have even gotten on the plane.

The 2012 Yankees season ended before they made Anibal Sanchez look like Cliff Lee and before Justin Verlander shut them down without his best stuff and before Max Scherzer repeated his 2011 postseason performance against them. The 2012 Yankees season ended when Derek Jeter couldn’t get up from the field and when the Yankees couldn’t win a home game in which they scored four runs in the bottom of the ninth to tie it. Seriously, how do you lose that game? No team in any sport loses a game in which they comeback in improbable fashion at home. Ever. It doesn’t happen. But I guess it’s a lot easier to happen when Nick Swisher 007 is playing right field.

I wasn’t as upset as I should have been when the Yankees lost Game 2 or Game 3 because of how upset I was after Game 1. After Game 1, I left the Stadium in the early hours of Sunday morning, devastated and depressed. I knew the season was over. Even though there was still technically a lot of baseball left to be played, I knew without Jeter and without winning Game 1 following the comeback that the season was over. I went into Phase 1 of the Yankees Elimination Process when Nick Swisher misplayed that ball in right field and it carried over to Sunday before Game 2. Phase 1 is when you know the season is over, but it’s not over yet. You probably experienced Phase 1 after Game 6 in the 2004 ALCS or after Game 3 in the 2006 ALDS or Game 2 of the 2007 ALDS or Game 4 of the 2010 ALCS. Sure things can change, but you know the inevitable isn’t far away.

Depending on when you enter Phase 1, the time between Phase 1 and Phase 2 can do crazy things to your emotions. You start to believe that even with the odds stacked against you that you can come back and the season can be extended. You can talk yourself into a comeback of epic proportions the way I did after Game 3 when I started asking, “Why not us?” to anyone I encountered throughout the day leading up to Game 4 like I was Curt Schilling eight Octobers ago. The time between Phase 1 and Phase 2 is full of false hope and that’s the last thing you need before Phase 2 sets in. Phase 2: The season is actually over.

Phase 2 can’t begin until the final out of the season is made. Even after CC Sabathia got rocked and the Tigers were still scoring runs against the Yankees bullpen in the final innings of Game 4, I was stuck in limbo on the outskirts of Phase 1, but oh so close to Phase 2. Phase 2 is when there are no more outs or innings or games. It’s over and it’s not coming back until April.

Phase 3 is the final phase and the phase I’m currently in. It’s the phase when there hasn’t been a game for a few days, so it feels like the All-Star break. But then there aren’t games for a few more days then a week then two weeks and then you realize there won’t be real, meaningful baseball until April. Usually this phase becomes easier because it is negated by the NHL season, but because Gary Bettman thinks a fourth lockout during his tenure as commissioner is a good idea, Phase 3 and the winter are going to drag on.

How will I remember the 2012 Yankees? As a failure. The 2012 Yankees won’t be remembered as a failure because they didn’t win the World Series. They will be remember as a failure because they didn’t even show up to get to the World Series.

I will remember the 2012 Yankees for the Goof Troop. That’s Alex Rodriguez, Robinson Cano, Mark Teixeira, Nick Swisher and Curtis Granderson. If you don’t think Mark Teixeira belongs in the Goof Troop because he had nine hits in the postseason then you’re lost. He had one extra-base hit, no home runs and zero RBIs. Let me remind you that he makes $23.5 million to be a power-hitting first baseman and a presence in the middle of the lineup. If he wants to be given a free pass for being a singles hitter then maybe he should give back some of his money away and he can hit with Brett Gardner at the bottom of the order. And if you believe that he makes up for Jason Giambi-like transformation with his defense then maybe you missed his defense in the postseason.

But for as bad as Teixeira was power-wise, the other four were a flat-out embarrassment. The only thing you can really do with Cano is chalk it up as the worst slump ever at the worst possible time. He is the “best” hitter on the team and the future and foundation of the lineup. You can only hope some team is willing to take on A-Rod and a small part of his contract. Granderson will likely be back for at least 2013, so you have to hope the eye doctor he recently visited found something related to why he is now a three-pitch strikeout. And Nick Swisher? The next time I want to see Nick Swisher in person is in right field at Yankee Stadium in the bottom of the first inning, playing for another team. If Nick Swisher is a Yankee in 2013, I won’t be going to the Bronx and that’s a promise. And you can’t even laugh and say, “I’m sure the Yankees will be fine without you there” because if you were at the postseason games, you know that they can use every single person in attendance they can get at the Stadium.

The Yankees finally got the starting pitching in the postseason that they needed in 2004 and 2005 and 2006 and 2007 and 2010, but they got the hitting they had in 2011. They had the easiest path to the World Series since 2006 when the Tigers also ended their season, but instead they ended up as the first Yankees team to be swept in a postseason series since the 1980 ALCS. They were a regular-season success and a postseason failure, and they didn’t even put up a fight. But after six months of laying down in the final innings of games (aside from Raul Ibanez’s late-inning heroics in the final week of the regular season and in the postseason), I should have seen it coming. You can only rely on your 40-year-old left-handed designated hitter making $1.1 million so many times. At some point A-Rod ($29 million), Teixeira ($23.5 million), Cano ($14 million), Swisher ($10.25 million) and Granderson ($10 million) have to do something. Anything! Seriously, get a hit with runners in scoring position. One effing hit.

Before the postseason started, I was scared that Bruce Springsteen’s “Land of Hope and Dreams” was going to be forever ruined if the Yankees were eliminated the way that Tinie Tempah’s “Written In the Stars” was last year. But even though this was the most embarrassing postseason performance from them since 2004 (though it’s hard to discount 2006 and 2007), I decided that the 2012 Yankees had ruined enough for me and they couldn’t ruin the theme song for the 2012 postseason too. Instead the song will serve to remind me of what went wrong over the final four games and six days of the season.

Ya leave behind your sorrows
Ya this day at last
Well tomorrow there’ll be sunshine
And all this darkess past

157 days until Opening Day.

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