Mark Sanchez – Keefe To The City

Sep 10, 2015

NFL Week 1 Picks

I hate the end of summer and post-Labor Day means the days are only going to get shorter and the weather is only going to get colder and soon enough you won’t want to go outside. So here we go. For the next 22 weeks, there’s football.

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I hate the end of summer. I have seasonal depression, or at least I think I have seasonal depression and post-Labor Day means the days are only going to get shorter and the weather is only going to get colder and soon enough you won’t want to go outside. But I love that football is back tonight, the Giants begin their season in three days, the Yankees are headed to the postseason in some form and the Rangers’ season begins in 27 days. I guess there are some positives to fall.

The beginning of the football season gives every team and every fan a chance to believe in their team and in moments like this happening (that’s me in Boston after the Giants beat the Patriots in Super Bowl XLII. I might have had a few beers). That night I drank in celebration at a bar in Faneuil Hall in the heart of Boston watching the highlights of the game over and over and over and over until the bar kicked us out.

The next morning I woke up without any traces of a hangover and walked out onto Hanover Street, which looked like the opening scenes of Vanilla Sky or I Am Legend. There was hardly any people around and the handful of people I did see had a look of complete devastation across their face. I couldn’t have been happier. That’s what football can do.

I haven’t liked football for a while. The last time I enjoyed football was the second before Russell Wilson threw a pass intended for Ricardo Lockette that was intercepted by Malcolm Butler. Actually, the last time I liked football was the second before Pete Carroll decided to throw the ball on the goal line with the Super Bowl at stake and the best running back in the league on his team. The second before Carroll opened his mouth and suggested that play or agreed to that play was the last time I liked football.

Since that second, the Patriots went on to win the Super Bowl, ending a nine-season drought without a championship, Tom Brady became a four-time Super Bowl champion, Boston sports fans argued that Marshawn Lynch might have not gotten in the end zone from the 1, Darrelle Revis became a champion and the worst thing in the history of sports happened: Deflategate. If Carroll gives the ball to Lynch there, the Seahawks win the Super Bowl, the Patriots are once again losers on the biggest stage, Jermaine Kearse’s catch unseats David Tyree’s catch as the most improbable Super Bowl catch of all time and Deflategate doesn’t spiral out of control because no one cares if a non-championship team may or may not have altered the footballs. But none of that happened and instead for nearly eight months at one point of every day I saw or heard the word “Deflategate” some place.

I was in Seattle for the NFC Championship Game and I saw about two seconds of the AFC Championship Game. I had heard the score and didn’t need to witness the Patriots embarrassing the Colts a week after the Ravens couldn’t close them out. Later that night in the hotel room, my girlfriend showed me a tweet that the Patriots supposedly played with underinflated footballs. My first thought was, “I don’t even know what that means” since I simply didn’t understand if that was good or bad or how that could be an issue. I thought it was just some nonsensical report that would either be laughed at or forgotten. I went to sleep on Jan. 18 not knowing about how footballs are handled before each game, what the proper PSI levels are for footballs or that quarterbacks got to use their own personal footballs in a game. When I woke up on Jan. 19, that nonsensical report hadn’t been forgotten.

I still can’t believe that for nearly all of the 2015 calendar year (minus the 17 days before the AFC Championship Game), Deflategate has pretty much controlled the headlines. The idea that people could spend so much time talking about the air pressure in footballs, reading every piece of information from the investigation and suspension and appeal and listening to sports radio recycle the same mind-blowing opinions on the topic is actually insane. Trying to understand how this much time, attention, money and resources were used on trying to figure out how footballs were lacking the necessary air is like trying to understand why Joe Girardi will use Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller in a game the Yankees are winning by five runs, but not in a game they’re losing by one run or why How to Make it in America was cancelled after two seasons or trying to grasp something as complex as the universe. Deflategate makes my head hurt to think about.

Unfortunately, Deflategate will never go away. The word will always follow Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and the Patriots around just like Spygate has. The Brady/Belichick Patriots will always be the victims of a witch hunt to Patriots fans and cheaters to non-Patriots fans. Even though the D-word is here to say just like the S-word has stayed alive for the last eight years, on Thursday night we will all finally have something else to talk about: a real-life football game. That is, until the Patriots beat the Steelers, like they always do at Gillette Stadium. Then, we will all have to hear about how they cheated to win the season opener too.

Tonight begins a new NFL season and with that comes a new picks season and another 263 games to pick. Last season, I finished 129-130-4, losing the final game of the season, the Super Bowl, on the play that should have gotten Pete Carroll fired. That play motivated me to work hard this offseason and get in the best shape of my life and make sure this picks season doesn’t end the way the last one did.

So here we go. For the next 22 weeks, there’s football.

(Home team in caps)

NEW ENGLAND -7 over Pittsburgh
As a Giants fan, I have to question the Patriots’ so-called cheating tactics. Either they lost on purpose a few times to make it seem like they weren’t cheating the way you might get a few questions wrong on a test on purpose to not make it obvious. Or they are just the worst cheaters of all time.

If the Patriots were videotaping signal givers and stealing playbooks and breaking into hotel rooms for information, did they forget to do these things for some of the biggest games? After their Super Bowl win in 2001, they missed the playoffs in 2002. They won the Super Bowl in 2003 and 2004, but then they lost to Broncos in the playoffs in 2005, blew a 21-6 halftime lead to the Colts in the 2006 AFC Championship Game, blew the perfect season and lost Super Bowl XLII to the Giants, got run out of Gillette by the Ravens in 2010, were embarrassed by the Jets at home in 2011, lost against to the Giants in Super Bowl XLVI, were shut down by the Ravens in 2012 and got dominated by the Broncos in 2013 before winning the Super Bowl this year.

Like I said, the Patriots were either losing on purpose to keep things balanced or they just aren’t very good cheaters given all of the information they supposedly had, taped and stole. Or maybe they just weren’t doing anything that every other team was already doing? No, it can’t be that.

Green Bay -7 over CHICAGO
This season I have made a pledge to myself to go hard after the Bears. I’m not getting suckered into thinking they can or will be good and I’m not changing my mind on them. I don’t care if they start the season 5-0 or or 7-0 or go 10-0 or complete the perfect season. If they do any of those things, good for them, but I’m not changing my mind on the Bears.

HOUSTON -1 over Kansas City
I’m not sure how Bill O’Brien and Rick Smith came to the conclusion that Brian Hoyer should be the Texans’ starting quarterback over Ryan Mallett. To be fair, it’s not like he named Hoyer the starter over a clearly more talented player and the two likely have the same amount of ability. But did they watch Hoyer play for the Browns? If you’re looking for one touchdown, two interceptions and 227 yards then Hoyer is your guy because that’s what he is and because we know what he is, why not start Mallett? At least there is a chance he might be somewhat good or at least better than Hoyer.

NEW YORK JETS -3 over Cleveland
The Jets always seem to get a cupcake game in Week 1 even if there is supposedly no such thing in the NFL. Last season, the Jets opened at home against the Raiders. The year before they opened at home against the Buccaneers. The year before that they opened at home against the Bills. It’s like they are playing the equivalent of Alcorn State, Tennessee-Martin and Arkansas State in Week 1. The Jets seem to always win in Week 1 because they’re at home against a weak opponent, which is once again the case this season, and then the Jets are 1-0 and their fans start mapping out their route to a postseason berth and before you know it they’re 1-3 and trying to keep their season alive.

After this game, the Jets follow with at Indianapolis, home against Philadelphia and at Miami before their Week 5 bye. Todd Bowles better get his first win as Jets head coach against the Browns or he might not be getting it until Oct. 18 and Week 6 against Washington. That’s a long ways away and there’s a lot of time between now and then for Jets fans to buy billboards and fly planes over practice suggesting he be fired.

BUFFALO +3 over Indianapolis
I wouldn’t mind seeing the Bills do well and have a winning season and make the playoffs. The only problem with that is their quarterback is Tyrod Taylor. His backup is Matt Cassell. His back up is EJ Manuel. That’s a big problem to have, but so is not having a run defense, which the Colts still don’t have.

Miami -4 over WASHINGTON
This is the official survivor pool Week 1 pick for just about everyone. In a week in which there are many even-matched and coin-flip games, you can always count on the Redskins to give you a much-needed win to stay alive.

For the last few years, we have been hearing about how the Dolphins will challenge the Patriots in the AFC East and each time they have failed. This year, the Dolphins are supposed to be even better and once again challenge the Patriots and reach the postseason for the first time since 2008. If the Dolphins are as good and reliable as they are being hyped up to be then this line is incredibly low. Even if the Dolphins are an average team, this line is too low. Even if the Dolphins are in the bottom third or bottom fourth of teams in the league, this is line is still too low. That’s how bad the 2015 Redskins are.

JACKSONVILLE +3.5 over Carolina
The Game of the Week. Somewhere someone who isn’t a Jaguars fan or a Panthers fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Thank about that.

Seattle -4.5 over ST. LOUIS
The Seahawks and I are not on good terms. After I became an honorary Seahawks fan and a 12 for the Super Bowl they went on to blow a 10-point lead and blow the game to ruin my Super Bowl Sunday and the days that have followed since. I don’t know if I’ll ever be able to forgive them for the loss and I absolutely will never forgive Pete Carroll for his play call. But if the Seahawks (and Pete Carroll isn’t included in this) are going to try to win me back it’s going to be by consistently covering spreads week in and week out. Here’s their first chance at redemption.

ARIZONA -3 over New Orleans
We all know what happens when you take the Saints out of the Superdome. Now take them out of the Superdome without Jimmy Graham.

SAN DIEGO -3 over Detroit
These two teams are the same to me and this is the hardest game of the week to pick. I did trade Matthew Stafford for Eli Manning in fantasy football, so I have to root heavily against Stafford this season.

TAMPA BAY -3 over Tennessee
Jameis Winston vs. Marcus Mariota in Week 1. I’m surprised this hasn’t been sold as the “Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady of the future”. If it were, Winston would be Manning would weapons like Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson and Mariota would be Brady with Kendall Wright and Harry Douglas to throw to. I’m thankful that the NFL Sunday Ticket is available to everyone this year, so that I don’t have to be forced to have the NFL Red Zone get stuck on this game since the only thing I would need or any non-Bucs and non-Titans fan would need from this game is the final score.

OAKLAND +3.5 over Cincinnati
I could care less about the NFL preseason. It’s baseball season until the Yankees either win the World Series or are eliminated and even if you don’t like baseball, there has to be something better to do with your time than watch meaningless preseason football games. The only crazier people in the world than those who watch preseason games are those who attend them. It’s not like spring training where you’re likely getting away from cold weather and enjoying the sun and watching a product that resembles what you see for 162 games in the summer.

The only thing I look for in preseason are finding out which key Giants were injured since it’s inevitable and videos of Andy Dalton throwing interceptions. And there’s only one thing more entertaining than Andy Dalton preseason interceptions and that’s Andy Dalton regular-season interceptions and once again there will be a lot of them.

DENVER -5 over Baltimore
Since I don’t watch preseason football, the last time I watched Peyton Manning play he was throwing wobbly passes as if he were trying to make a Nerf ball without seams spiral and the passes weren’t going to anyone. He finished that home playoff loss against the Colts at 26-of-46 for 211 yards and a touchdown despite coming off a bye, which momentarily made everyone think the Colts had a chance against the Patriots before they were blown out.

I have no idea what Manning will look like this season if he could have looked so bad against a bad defense with a trip to the AFC Championship Game on the line. I don’t think he would have come back if he were going to continue to play like that, so for now, I’m trusting that a healthier, yet older, Peyton Manning came back because he would be good enough to cover spreads once again.

New York Giants +6 over DALLAS
I’m overly confident in the Giants right now. I’m talking high levels of irrational confidence about a team that has gone 13-19 over the last two seasons and hasn’t made the playoffs in the the last three seasons. That could all change in one minute on Sunday night or even one play if Eli Manning opens the season with a first-play interception the way he did against the Cowboys in Week 1 on Sunday Night Football two years ago.

What scares me the most about the 2015 Giants isn’t the absurd amount of preseason injuries for the third straight year or the health of Victor Cruz or the absences of Jason Pierre-Paul or the offensive line or the secondary. What scares me the most is what Prince Amukamara said about this game by calling it a “must-win.”

“I could see everyone’s [butt] getting tight, everyone feeling like they are on the hot seat. You definitely don’t want that feeling around. It’s a bad disease.

“I think that can break the team’s morale, especially with the guys that have already been here and have experienced 0-1, than 0-2 and 0-6 (in 2013). It’s just a bad taste in your mouth. And with this organization, which wants to win now and always has a sense of urgency.”

The idea that a Week 1 loss could cause the team’s butts to “get tight” and “break the team’s morale” isn’t exactly reassuring for the season if they do lose to the Cowboys. Since Amukamara basically called this game the Super Bowl following the most uninspiring preseason from the Giants maybe ever, I’m not scared about this game, I’m petrified.

ATLANTA +3 over Philadelphia
Everywhere I turn I see the Eagles being picked to win the NFC East and be a Super Bowl contender. Is Sam Bradford not the Eagles’ starting quarterback? Has he not missed the last 23 regular-season games? Was the last time he played in an NFL game not Oct. 20, 2013?

In five seasons, Bradford has played 16 games twice and has played in 49 of a possible 80 games (61 percent). If Bradford were to get hurt and miss time, which obviously is a real possibility, then the Eagles would turn to Mark Sanchez once again. If you forgot, the Eagles were 7-2 last season and with Sanchez as the starting quarterback, they went on to miss the playoffs.

The Phillies are fighting to not be the worst team in baseball, the Flyers are horrible and the 76ers haven’t been good since Allen Iverson played for them. If the Eagles aren’t good, the Philadelphia sports landscape will be full of bad teams, which is more incentive to pick against the Eagles.

Minnesota -2.5 over SAN FRANCISCO
I have no idea when I’m going to sleep in the next five days. The Yankees have a four-game series against the Blue Jays beginning on Thursday. The NFL season opens on Thursday. The first NFL Sunday is this Sunday and the Giants play at 8:30 p.m. There is the Week 1 Monday Night Football doubleheader with the second game (this game) starting at 10:15 p.m. Normally this is like Raiders-Chargers and I could watch it while falling asleep, but my girlfriend is a Vikings fan, so I will be awake and invested in this game. Since I will be watching intently with a crazed Vikings fan next to me, I have to go with the Vikings here otherwise the next time I will be able to get a good night’s sleep won’t be as early as Tuesday.

Don’t forget to sign up for Keefe To The City survivor pool presented by USA Football Pools. It’s free to play and the winner will get a $250 Visa gift card. Sign up now.

NFL • Podcasts

Sep 10, 2015

Podcast: Tim Duff

My friend and lifelong optimistic Jets fan joined me to talk about the team’s new look.

The Jets are a completely different team from last season with a new general manager, a new head coach, a new starting quarterback, a new star wide receiver and the return of their former franchise cornerback. Even though the Jets have tried to shed the image of last season’s 4-12 record, their offseason and preseason storylines have kept them in the headlines for all the wrong reasons as they look to once again be the same old Jets.

My friend and lifelong optimistic Jets fan Tim Duff joined me to talk about the new-look Jets, how many wins can be expected this season, if Ryan Fitzpatrick can lead the team, if Geno Smith will ever be a good starting quarterback, the perception of Rex Ryan now that he’s with the Bills and the return of Patriots Super Bowl champion Darrelle Revis.

Blogs • Giants • NFL

Nov 6, 2014

NFL Week 10 Picks

I’m thinking of going to a comedy show in New York on Sunday night, which would force me to miss the end of the Giants-Seahawks game. So I have to make the decision between moving

I’m thinking of going to a comedy show in New York on Sunday night, which would force me to miss the end of the Giants-Seahawks game. So I have to make the decision between moving from the couch on a football Sunday, going out, paying for a round-trip cab, admission to the show and food and drinks or staying on the couch and finish watching a three-hour free comedy show live from Seattle on FOX. As much of a joke the Giants-Seahawks game will likely and how many laughs it should produce for non-Giants fans, I think it’s a better idea to get out out of the apartment just as the Seahawks backups finish off the Giants as the Giants finally start to throw the ball for the majority of their plays once the game is out of reach.

Speaking of comedy, this week on his Monday Morning Podcast, Bill Burr said, “If you bet on football this year, you’re out of your mind. At this point you should just cut your losses and go home.” I wish I could, Bill. I wish I could go. But there are still eight weeks of the regular season to pick and then the playoffs.

(Home team in caps)

CINCINNATI -6.5 over Cleveland
The Bengals have done their transformation to become the AFC Saints in that the Paul Brown Stadium Bengals are a much different team than the Outside the Paul Brown Stadium Bengals are. The Bengals are 4-0-1 at home this year and 1-2 on the road after going 8-0 at home and 3-5 on the road last year. This season, the Bengals’ average home score is a 30.8-20.2 win and their average road score is a 28.7-13.3 loss. That’s good news if the Bengals can win the NFC North and play their first playoff game at home. The problem is the Bengals is five or their last seven games are on the road.

Miami +3 over DETROIT
It’s never a good idea to buy into the Miami Dolphins. You would be better off buying into a start-up newspaper in 2014 than the Dolphins given their history of strong starts and late-season collapses, but the problem with this game is the Lions are the Dolphins of the NFC. So I can either buy into the start-up newspaper in 2014 (Dolphins) or pay for an AOL account in 2014 (Lions). That’s why I’m taking the points.

Buffalo +2.5 over KANSAS CITY
If the Giants aren’t going to do anything this year, which they’re not, then I might as well be an honorary Bills fan for the rest of the season. I can’t get behind the Browns because them winning means Johnny Manziel’s career will only be delayed longer and I can’t get behind the Chiefs because of Alex Smith even though it would make me happy to know that the city of Philadelphia and Eagles fans would have to watch Andy Reid win the Super Bowl. Aside from the Bills, those are the other long-suffering franchises that look like postseason contenders that I don’t have any direct hatred against, but how could I not pull for the Bills and Kyle “David Grohl” Orton to go on a run with the Bills?

San Francisco +5 over NEW ORLEANS
The Saints are going to win this game. That’s a fact. How do I know this? Let me say it again:

The Saints’ last home loss with Sean Payton as head coach came in Week 17 in 2010 when they had nothing to play for. Including the playoffs, with Payton as head coach, the Saints have won all of their home games since that loss and here are their margins of victory in those games: 19, 6, 11, 25, 18, 3, 32, 18, 21, 24, 6, 17, 28, 29, 14, 25, 11, 55, 7 and 17.

BALTIMORE -10 over Tennessee
I have done everything I can to continuously pick against the Ravens, but there are times when you have to see the difference between right and wrong and smart and dumb. And taking Tennessee, even to cover a double-digit spread, is dumb though I’m sure every sharp in Vegas would disagree given the state of the NFL.

Pittsburgh -6.5 over NEW YORK JETS
The Jets have lost eight straight games. They have fans wasting money on planes to fly over practice and promote John Idzik’s firing while other fans are wasting their money to use a billboard outside MetLife to promote the same cause. Michael Vick, who clearly wants no part of actually playing football anymore and would rather just hang out on the sidelines and collect a paycheck (who can blame him?) is starting over the most recent Jets franchise quarterback. And their head coach continues to say he sees good things each week even though the team’s only win came in Week 1 over the still-winless Raiders.

The Steelers were 3-3 and coming off a 21-point loss to the Browns before winning three straight games and saving their season and putting themselves in prime position to return to the playoffs. They have scored 94 points in the last two weeks against two contenders in the Colts and Ravens and Ben Roethlisberger threw for 862 yards and 12 touchdowns without an interception in those two games. And they have possibly the best receiver in the league in Antonio Brown ready to face the worst secondary imaginable.

So what does all of this mean? It means that this game will likely be decided by a field goal because the NFL is insane. But it also means it’s no time to be backing the Jets and asking them to cover anything less than a touchdown.

Tampa Bay +2 over ATLANTA
Somewhere someone who isn’t a Buccaneers fan or a Falcons fan is going to bet on this game and watch it in its entirety. Think about that.

Denver -12.5 over OAKLAND
I don’t want to say Peyton Manning is a fraud, so I will let other people say it for me. But the best regular-season quarterback in history went into Gillette Stadium and got embarrassed once again last week. Sure, he put up 429 yards and got his numbers in before it was over, but his team lost by 22 points in a game that could be the difference in a trip to the Super Bowl and an AFC Championship Game loss because of home-field advantage. I picked the Broncos last week because I didn’t want to back the Patriots even though I envisioned the game that played out playing out because it has so many times Peyton has gone to New England. Let’s hope that performance doesn’t mean a Super Bowl appearance for the Patriots because then I’m done with Peyton.

ARIZONA -7.5 over St. Louis
The Arizona Cardinals are the best team in football.

The Arizona Cardinals are the best team in football?

I wrote that sentence out with both a period and a question mark because after I wrote it the first time, I read it back to myself like Ron Burgundy reading a line on the prompter incorrectly because of a misplaced question mark at the end of it. Are the Cardinals the best team in football? Their record says they are at 7-1, leading the NFC West that was supposed to be for Seattle or San Francisco to win. I’m happy for the Cardinals after missing the playoffs last year despite a 10-win season while the Packers played a first-round home game at 8-7-1 for winning the NFC North, but I’m not sure a team with Carson Palmer as their quarterback can ever be considered the best team in the league at any time even if their record says they are.

New York Giants +9.5 over SEATTLE
The Giants’ offense currently consists of a first-round pick wide receiver who has played four career games, two wide receivers who can’t catch, a tight end who played quarterback in college, a tight end who was out of football in 2013, a rookie running back and a running back who thought his NFL career was over a little over a year ago. The absolute worst place for a team with that offensive personnel to go is Seattle, so if you’re thinking of sitting back at 4:25 on Sunday and watching the Giants, you might want to make other plans for around 5:00. I think I’m going to.

GREEN BAY -7.5 over Chicago
The last time the Bears won in Green Bay was Oct. 7, 2007 in Week 5. It was Brian Griese playing for a benched Rex Grossman against Brett Favre. The Bears have cost me picks and actual money so many times this season that I will be pulling for a Packers blowout on Sunday night as if it were the Giants playing in the Super Bowl.

Carolina +6 over PHILADELPHIA
The Panthers aren’t good. But you’re asking me to pick Mark Sanchez to win a game he starts by a touchdown.

Last Week: 4-9-0
Season: 63-70-1

NFL • Podcasts

Sep 5, 2014

Podcast: Tim Duff

Jets fans are used to losing and you can’t blame them for being worried about the team this season, but there’s one fan who is overly optimistic about the Jets.

A second Jets-related podcast in two days? Yes. But I have a good reason and a good guest. My friend, Tim Duff, is a lifetime Jets season ticket holder and wears Jets blinders at all costs. If Rex Ryan and Nick Mangold broke into his apartment, took everything in it, drained his bank accounts, maxed out his credit cards, stole his car and left it on some Brooklyn street corner after pouring gasoline on it and lighting it on fire, he would shrug his shoulders and probably think it was awesome that Ryan and Mangold ruined his life and everything to his name. No matter what the roster or personnel looks like in a given year, Duff thinks the Jets are at least a 10-win team and that’s once again the case in 2014.

We talked about the Jets’ decision to hold a contest to replace Fireman Ed, how the Jets are going to handle the six-week gauntlet from Weeks 2 through 7, if Jets fans will turn on Geno Smith in favor Michael Vick and what he thinks might happen to him when he goes to Lambeau Field wearing a Sheldon Richardson jersey.

Blogs

Oct 25, 2012

NFL Week 8 Picks

Last week was another disappointing of picks following the best week of the year, but Week 8 looks promising to get back on track.

Eli Manning had to overcome a three-point deficit with 1:13 and three timeouts left. It was too much time and too many timeouts for the Redskins to stop. I knew it, MetLife Stadium knew it and you better believe Mike Shanahan and Jim Haslett knew it. I was worried that the Giants might fall to 0-3 in the NFC East with an overtime loss to the Redskins, but I knew the game was at least going to overtime. The Giants were going to come back. I just didn’t know they were going to come back on the second play from their own 23.

Sunday’s game was the same old Giants. A perfect mix of undisciplined penalties, costly turnovers, missed opportunities and then a fourth-quarter comeback. It’s gotten to the point where I don’t even need to watch the first 58 minutes of the game because I know what’s going to happen in those 58 minutes and what’s going to happen in the last two minutes. It’s actually a better idea that I don’t watch the first 58 minutes of the game because it will save me from heartache, stress, increased blood pressure and the need to drink. The Giants are always going to be who they are for the first 58 minutes. They just need to continue to be who they are in the final two minutes.

***

Two weeks ago I just posted my picks without any take on the picks or the teams because my attention was on the Yankees postseason, which ended in embarrassing fashion. I went 8-6 that week. Last week I returned to a full picks column (on Friday instead of Thursday) and I went 6-7-1 with my sixth under-.500 week in seven weeks. The season is 41 percent over and after this week it will be 47 percent over. Halloween is in six days and Thanksgiving is in four weeks. It’s getting late early for my picks and it’s time to make a run.

Week 8 picks … let’s go!

(Home team in caps)

MINNESOTA -6.5 over Tampa Bay
I talked with Phil Simms for CBS Local Sports on Monday and he praised the Minnesota Vikings and their great defense and their system. He talked glowingly about every aspect of the Vikings including their outdated dome and their fans. It made me a believer in a team that’s already 5-2 with a bandwagon that’s quickly filling up, as you can see by another somewhat surprising home line. If the man who started the “I’m going to Disney World!” line is sold on the Vikings then so am I.

ST. LOUIS RAMS -7 over New England
The Patriots are giving seven points on the road? I can’t even ask that question with a straight face. Is it 2007? Is George W. Bush still the President? Did I miss something? Are the Patriots not 4-3 with losses to the Cardinals and Seahawks and a home overtime win over Mark Sanchez and the Darrelle Revis/Santonio Holmes-less Jets? Is this real life?

The Patriots have the same public perception that the Yankees have: they’re supposed to win. The difference is that the Yankees won just three years ago while the Patriots last won eight years ago. But even as the Patriots’ elite status begins to crumble and they move closer and closer to the pack in an awful AFC East, people still want to believe that the Patriots are the Patriots of the last decade. But they’re not and people like Mike Hurley won’t accept this until the bottom finally falls out for them and they miss the postseason.

Until that secondary gets fixed and Russell Wilson and Mark Sanchez aren’t able to pick it apart, I’m not picking the Patriots to cover a touchdown with or without Tom Brady and Bill Belichick.

TENNESSEE -3.5 over Indianapolis
It’s the “Do I Really Have to Pick This Game of the Week?” The Colts run defense is bad and Chris Johnson might be back. That’s enough to scare me from the Colts. Well, that and in their two road games they have lost by 20 and 26.

CLEVELAND +3 over San Diego
I will do anything to pick against the Chargers. Anything. Even if “anything” means picking the Browns.

PHILADELPHIA -2 over Atlanta
If I really believe the Falcons aren’t as good as their 6-0 record suggests or as good as people want them to be then I have no choice, but to pick the Eagles here. As much as it pains me to pick the Eagles to win a game when it looks like another season without a postseason for the Eagles and another season full or dysfunction and humiliation and maybe Michael Vick’s last stand as a starting quarterback in the NFL, I have to take the Eagles if I want to continue to tell people that I don’t think the Falcons are the class of the NFC. I don’t have a choice.

DETROIT -2.5 over Seattle
I don’t want to pick any game that involves the Seahawks ever again. They screwed me (along with the replacement refs) against the Packers. They screwed me (along with Nate Ebner) against the Patriots. They screwed me (along with Jim Harbaugh, who decided to decline a holding penalty that would have resulted in a safety and a nine-point win) against the 49ers. Nothing good can come from any game involving the Seahawks and I will pick against them for the rest of 2012. And oh, I hate Pete Carroll. So there’s that too.

NEW YORK JETS -2.5 over Miami
Vegas thinks the Dolphins are better than the Jets with this line, but I don’t think they are. But if I had to pick the one game in Week 8 that I wouldn’t be surprised to lose, it’s this one.

CHICAGO -7.5 over Carolina
The Bears are the biggest threat to the 2012 New York Football Giants in the NFC. The Panthers are the biggest threat to a generation of kids growing up in Carolina, but liking another NFL team.

PITTSBURGH -4.5 over Washington
This line is what it is because the Redskins stayed with the Giants at MetLife last week. But anyone who knows the Giants know that home field is a disadvantage to them. There are two guarantees in the NFL: The Giants will always play up and down to their competition and they will always suck at home. That’s not an opinion, that’s a fact. It’s science. The Redskins were not allowing a 77-yard touchdown pass from Eli Manning to Victor Cruz away from being in first place in the NFC East, but now they are 3-4 and going to Heinz Field where a real home-field advantage exists. DeAngelo Hall might want to start making excuses for his team’s defense now to use after Sunday’s game.

Oakland +1 over KANSAS CITY
The Raiders might be 2-4 and 0-3 on the road with an average loss of 32-13, but Kansas City is 1-5 and Brady Quinn is starting.

New York Giants -2.5 over DALLAS
Eli Manning has never lost at Cowboys Stadium. The Giants are 3-0 in Dallas since the new stadium opened and have put up 33, 41 and 37 points there and this is the best offense the Giants have had since the Cowboys got a new home.

DENVER -6 over New Orleans
The Saints held on for a comeback win in Tampa Bay in Week 7. (That sentence should be all you need to know about the 2012 Saints.) The Saints have won back-to-back games even if the first of these wins was a guarantee with the Chargers going to the SuperDome as Drew Brees tried to break Johnny Unitas’ record and if the second game was against the Buccaneers, who are the Buccaneers. They are now 2-4 and giving Who Dat Nation a giant case of blue balls with the ultimate tease that they are capable of going on an extended winning streak to bring them back into the playoff picture. If this were a Disney movie that would happen. If this were even a made-for-TV movie it might happen. But this is real life and in real life the Saints have the Broncos in Denver coming off a bye. Then they have the Eagles and Falcons before the Raiders, followed by the 49ers, Falcons and Giants. The Saints’ season ended after Week 3 when they fell to 0-3 against the easiest part of their schedule.

San Francisco -7 over ARIZONA
Yes, I’m hoping that Alex Smith can put up points against a defense that has only allowed 21 points once this season. It’s better than hoping that John Skelton can put up any points against a defense that has only allowed more than 19 points to Eli Manning and Aaron Rodgers.

Last Week: 5-7-1
Season: 47-55-2

Blogs • Giants

Dec 12, 2011

Part Of The Solution And Problem For Giants

The Giants came away with the win, which is all that matters. But despite the elation from last night that has carried over into today, it’s time to look at the old saying, “If you’re not part of the solution, you’re part of the problem.”

This column was originally published on WFAN.com on Dec. 12, 2011.

Five minutes and 41 seconds. That’s the amount of time that separated Tom Coughlin and his coaching staff from turning in their three-weeks notice and guaranteeing that they wouldn’t be part of the New York Giants organization after Week 17.

I was prepared to open this column with an exchange between Michael Scott and Pam Beesly on the day they found out that the Michael Scott Paper Company was broke.

Michael Scott: Did I ever tell you about the day that Steve Martin died?

Pam Beesly: Steve Martin’s not dead, Michael.

Michael Scott: I know. But I always thought, that the day that he died would be the worst day of my life and I was wrong. It’s this.

That’s what Sunday night was shaping up to be. Another terrible memory added to the now long list of terrible memories and moments in recent Giants history. And with five minutes and 41 seconds left in the game, the Giants trailing by 12 points with two timeouts and a defense that couldn’t get a stop, I thought the Giants’ season was over. Actually I knew it was over. Dez Bryant had just been left so open on the field that the there wasn’t another player on the TV when the NBC camera found the him and the ball, and Rambo-like flashbacks of DeSean Jackson backpedaling into the end zone while dancing and laughing in Week 14 in 2009 clouded my mind. The season was over.

I had used the commercial break to ease the pain of the Giants’ loss, and convince myself that they didn’t deserve to be in the playoffs, and that if they did make the playoffs they would just get embarrassed anyway. I remembered thinking that the season was over after their Week 1 loss to the Redskins and that they weren’t going anywhere in 2011 with the injuries, and that getting to Week 14 was an accomplishment. It was like I had just used my entire checking account on a bar tab, and I was trying to justify it to myself, and trying to think of a way to twist it so that I wouldn’t feel so terrible about what had happened. “It was worth it. You only live once. This is what your 20s are for.” When in reality, it’s hard to justify buying $10 beers and $18 drinks for four hours the same way it’s hard to rationalize getting repeatedly sucked back into the Giants over the course of a season and constantly believing the team will come back.

I was willing to do anything to have the Giants win Sunday’s game in the form of a dagger that the Eagles delivered to the Giants in Week 14 last year. I said I would watch Saturday Night Live every week for the next five years. I would listen to Nickelback and only Nickelback from now until the end of January. I would read Snooki’s book and watch Pan Am and Kourtney and Kim Take New York. I would only use the ends of loaves of bread for sandwiches for the next month, and wake up at 4 a.m. all winter and run 10 miles. I would watch the Seahawks-Rams on Monday Night Football and attend a Nets game this year. I would do any of these things for the Giants to beat the Cowboys and keep their postseason aspirations alive. (So, yeah, I have a lot of horrible things to do and accomplish. And I probably should have said I would do these things if they beat the Cowboys and made the playoffs because if they lose to the Redskins or the Jets or the Cowboys and then don’t make the playoffs, that’s going to be devastating.)

Last night wasn’t the type of game that the Giants win. It was the type of game that the Giants lose. Never, ever, ever the type of game that they come back and win. It was the type of game where they drag you along and lead you on before they break your heart, only to put it back together before shattering it again with a sledgehammer. And they did their best to do this, and they tried to do it right up until the final play of the game (or the final play that mattered which was the missed field-goal attempt since the actual final play was an Eli Manning kneel).

That’s not me being negative or pessimistic. That’s me being a realist. Even Giants owner John Mara agrees with me, and he owns the team! He said so after the game: “The best thing is we got our season back tonight. It would be nice to have an easy tin for a change, but I don’t know if that is in our DNA.”

The Giants did get their season back like I thought they would before the game, but not with 5:41 left to play. They took care of their own business for the first time since beating the Patriots five weeks ago and they temporarily paused the second-half collapse, which is something they haven’t been able to do in past seasons.

The Giants won because they played with urgency when they had no other choice. I talked about this a few weeks ago. The Giants play to the level of their opponent, and they don’t play at the level we expect them to play at until the fourth quarter when it’s nearly too late and when one mistake will end the game. But really they won because of a series of crazy plays that happened in the final “five minutes and 41 seconds” that we will hopefully look back on in a few months as the turning point for this Giants season.

– The Giants go 80 yards in 2:27 to score and don’t use any timeouts, leaving them both timeouts and the two-minute warning.

– The Giants finally stop the run, and put the Cowboys into a third-down situation and only burned one timeout in doing so.

– Instead of running the ball on third-and-5 and trying to take additional time off the clock and hoping for a first down to end the game, the Cowboys try to pass for the first down. Tony Romo jussssst overthrows a wide-open Miles Austin, which would have resulted in a touchdown pass. The incompletion stops the clock, saves the Giants their final timeout (which they would go on to use to ice Dan Bailey) and the two-minute warning and forces the Cowboys to punt and play defense.

– Cowboys punter Mat McBriar only punts the ball 33 yards to the New York 42 giving the Giants great field position with 2:12 left.

– The Giants botch a snap and get saved by a Cowboys penalty. Eli Manning gets nearly sacked, but throws the ball with his left hand, but the play doesn’t count because of a Cowboys penalty.

– Mario Manningham drops a perfectly thrown ball in the end zone that would have given the Giants the lead. At the time I was going insane. When in reality, a touchdown there would have given the Cowboys even more time to work with and they would have sent the game into overtime or possibly won the game. The drops turns out to be a blessing in disguise.

– Jake Ballard catches an 18-yard pass, but is tackled at the Dallas 1 to kill additional time. If he gets in the end zone there, the Cowboys have more than the 46 seconds they ended up being left with.

– The Giants convert a two-point conversion on a … wait for it … wait for it … wait for it … DRAW PLAY TO D.J. WARE! Kevin Gilbride, you genius you!

– The Cowboys have 46 seconds and no timeouts, starting at their own 20. I don’t know what the chance of getting into field-goal range is given those circumstances, but it’s low. Really, really, really low.

– The Cowboys get to the New York 29 and kick a game-tying field goal, but Tom Coughlin calls timeout to ice Dan Bailey. On Bailey’s second attempt, Jason Pierre-Paul blocks the attempt and the Giants win.

The Giants came away with the win, which is all that matters. And it is all that matters because if the season ended today, the Giants would be the No. 4 seed with a home game in the first round (even though I would rather have them on the road in the postseason). But even with a win that saved their season, they were an iced kicker away from going to overtime where a coin flip would have decided their season. So, despite the elation from last night that has carried over into today, let’s look at the old saying, “If you’re not part of the solution, you’re part of the problem” and how it pertains to three Giants from each side of it.

PART OF THE PROBLEM

Kevin Gilbride
Kevin Gilbride sometimes calls plays as if Tyler Palko is his quarterback and Adrian Peterson is his running back. OK, it’s not sometimes. It’s all the time. And because of that, I spent halftime last night creating Monster and CareerBuilder accounts for Gilbride to use following this season. I sent the user names and passwords to kgilbride@giants.com, but I’m not sure if that’s his email or not.

Cris Collinsworth said Gilbride told him in their pregame conversation, “If we can run it, I’m not going to do anything else.” At least Gilbride isn’t a liar.

Manning threw for 149 yards in the first half. The Giants started with the ball in the second half, and came out with a seven-yard screen pass to Ahmad Bradshaw, and then back-to-back running plays with Bradshaw that went for a combined one yard, forcing the Giants to punt. I understand that the Giants were probably thinking that Bradshaw would have fresh legs since he was bench for the first half, but Eli Manning just picked apart the Dallas secondary for a half.

Then at the end of the third quarter, they didn’t get a third-down play off in time, so the game went to a TV timeout. Out of the break, the Giants ran the ball with Bradshaw on third-and-2 from their own 41. He lost three yards, as Jay Ratliff was ready for the run as if he could read Gilbride’s mind. Speaking of which … does Gilbride really need to cover his mouth with the play chart when speaking into his headset? You don’t need X-ray vision to see through the chart to know that he’s mouthing “draw with Jacobs” or “inside handoff to Ware.” Actually, I want to see what it says on Gilbride’s play chart. I picture just a blank chart with “DRAWS AND SCREEN PASSES!!!” written in huge letters in bad penmanship in red marker. I mean with less than five minutes to go and down by 12, and just two timeouts left, the guy ran a shotgun draw to Bradshaw.

Jets fans probably think this is nothing compared to what Brian Schottenheimer calls for their team, but he has Mark Sanchez to work with. Gilbride calls plays like he has Mark Sanchez and not Eli Manning.

Giants Defense (Minus Jason Pierre-Paul)
If one of my friends had been living overseas since Labor Day without Internet or any access to the American sports world and just moved back today and wanted to catch up on the NFL season and the Giants, and asked me to describe the 2011 Giants defense to them, I would say: “If there’s 30 seconds on the clock at the end of either half and the opposing team has the ball at their own 20 with no timeouts left, I don’t feel confident in the Giants being able to stop them from scoring.” Am I wrong?

I would rather watch Boone Logan face Josh Hamilton with the bases loaded and two outs in Game 7 than watch the Giants play defense. That’s not an exaggeration. For all the negative tweets and words I have written about the Yankees left-handed specialist who can’t get lefties out, he doesn’t even come close to the frustration level that the Giants defense brings out in me (and I’m assuming all Giants fans).

When the Cowboys got the ball with 1:38 left in the first half, I tweeted “If there is a line available on “Will the Cowboys score before the end of the half?” … I’m willing to wager a lot of money on it.” The Cowboys fumbled on the first play and the Giants recovered, and I got responses from people laughing at me. But when the Giants went into their “Settle for a Field Goal” red zone offense and barely took any time off the clock, the Cowboys got the ball back again with 1:03 left in the first half. They went 49 yards in 48 seconds and kicked a field goal to retake the lead. I didn’t need to tweet back as those who doubted me and believed in the Giants’ defense. It wasn’t worth it.

As of right now, if the Giants were to make the playoffs and win their first-round game, they would likely go to Green Bay to face the Packers. And while they played the Packers tough (but still lost!), that was at home. I can’t think of a worse thing to watch than having to go to Green Bay with the Packers coming off a bye week and watching a rest Aaron Rodgers and his offense just go to town on the Giants’ defense. Actually I can think of a worse thing to watch: Tom Coughlin trying to brave the cold and frigid temperatures of Green Bay like he did in the 2007 NFC Championship Game. (I would link to a picture here, but I plan on trying to sleep later.)

Ahmad Bradshaw
Bradshaw missed four games because of a cracked bone in his foot. You would think he would be itching to play and wanting to prove himself after missing 25 percent of the season. You would think.

I’m not mad at Tom Coughlin for benching Bradshaw here because even though it might have cost the Giants their season and Giants fans like me the season, it could have potentially cost Coughlin his job and his career. Sunday’s game was the most important game of Coughlin’s coaching career outside of Super Bowl XLII. He is 65 years old and isn’t going to get another head coaching job after he’s done with the Giants, and if he lost on Sunday, he would have basically fired himself. If he felt it was that important to bench his No. 1 running back for the first half of a must-win game then I have to stand by that decision because he put his livelihood in danger, and to me, only my football season as a fan was in danger because of it. Though you might be able make a case that Coughlin’s livelihood and my football fandom are equal.

Coughlin has been about discipline and old-school football since his first day on the job with the Giants. If you know who he is and what he’s about as I’m sure Bradshaw does, then no one is to blame for reportedly missing curfew and being benched other than Bradshaw. But yeah, Tom Coughlin has some pretty strong “principles” if he’s willing to go to war without one of his best players for breaking a team violation.

PART OF THE SOLUTION

Eli Manning
The world is full of silence from the Eli Manning critics today. Six fourth-quarter wins this season, his third 400-yard passing game of the year and he’s now tired with his brother and Johnny Unitas for he most (14) fourth-quarter touchdown passes in single-season history. We are far removed from the “Gee, golly” Eli days.

Sure, there are still those brain farts in the game where Eli panics and goes to the back-foot, off-balance throw that makes time stand still and makes your heart drop like when you drive past a cop doing radar going 20 mph over the speed limit. You hope the cop doesn’t pull out and come after you the way that you hope Eli’s errant pass finds the sidelines or hits some open ground.

There isn’t anyone that I would rather have with the game on the line in the two-minute drill in the league. (I say this a lot, but I don’t care. I’ll say it again!) Does that sound crazy? Maybe, but it isn’t if you watch Eli play every week and not just on national TV. With 5:46 left I didn’t think the Giants would win, but when it got to the point that Eli had the ball and a chance to go down the field and score the go-ahead touchdown, I knew he would find a way to get it done. I think the only two New York athletes I feel confident with in certain situations are No. 42 in the ninth inning and Eli Manning in the two-minute drill. Maybe Mark Teixeira with the bases loaded? Oh, wait…

Eli Manning has been so good that when you factor in the all of the drops between Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz and Mario Manningham throughout the season (and if it weren’t for the drops last night he might have thrown for 500-plus yards) and that Kevin Gilbride is calling his plays for him, Eli is actually even better than his numbers suggest he is.

Jason Pierre-Paul
If you’re not a Giants fan, you might not know who Jason Pierre-Paul was at this time yesterday. But I’m pretty sure after last night and now this morning, you know who he is.

It’s guy like JPP that make me feel bad when I berate the Giants defense because why should a guy like that get lumped into the conversation with guys who don’t do their job like Aaron Ross? It’s unfair to JPP. So, I’m giving him this space for me to honor him and separate him from the rest of the defense and those that don’t give the effort needed to prevent second-half collapses.

A safety, a forced fumble, two sacks, eight tackles and blocked field goal … in one game! If the Giants don’t give JPP a platinum copy of this game on DVD, I’m willing to buy him the NFL Rewind version of it iTunes. It’s the least I can do for him for saving my football season.

Brandon Jacobs
Brandon Jacobs is in the A.J. Burnett Zone and there’s no returning. I made this clear about three weeks ago.

I can’t stand Jacobs and his fall since the 2007 season has been devastating. But for one game, Jacobs used some of Steve Urkel’s “Boss Sauce” and hopped into the transformation machine and came out as 2007 Brandon Jacobs. He ran north and south, and east and west, and ran people over and held on to the ball and scored two touchdowns. He ran for 101 yards on 19 carries (averaging 5.3 yards per carry) and it was the first time since Week 14 last year. I could have done without whatever it was that he did in the end zone after his first touchdown, but I have accepted the fact that he still thinks he is as good as he was three and four years ago, and he is going to act like it.

If the Giants can get that kind of effort from Jacobs from here on out (and I don’t think they can but I hope they can), they will have two thirds of Earth, Wind and Fire for the stretch run and into the postseason. And the last time they had anything close to resembling that three-headed running monster they reached the postseason. (Yes, they lost in the first round, but after two straight years without the playoffs, I’m worried about getting to the playoffs first.)

On Friday, I said if we’re lucky we will get to relive this Game 7, do-or-die, must-win scenario again in Week 17. I will be ready for it.

Follow Neil on Twitter @NeilKeefe

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Part Of The Solution And Problem For Giants