Marcus Stroman – Keefe To The City

Sep 11, 2015

A Seven-Game Yankees-Blue Jays Series for the Division

The Yankees and Blue Jays are separated by 1 1/2 games and over the last 25 games the two teams play each other seven times. One team will win the AL East and the other will play in the one-game playoff.

The Yankees and Blue Jays are separated by 1 1/2 games in the standings and over the last 24 games of the season, the two teams play each other seven times. One team will win the AL East and the other will play in the one-game playoff.

With the Yankees and Blue Jays meeting for a crucial four-game series, Tom Dakers of Bluebird Banter joined me to talk about the Blue Jays’ run since the trade deadline, Josh Donaldson’s incredible MVP campaign, R.A. Dickey’s unbeaten streak, the return of Marcus Stroman and if the Blue Jays will win the East.

Keefe: The last time we talked the Yankees were 62-51 and the Blue Jays were 64-52. I said the two teams were set to begin a seven-week battle for the AL East with the loser going to the one-game playoff. Since then, the Yankees have gone 15-10 and the Blue Jays have gone 15-8.

Over their last 12 games, the Yankees have gone 8-4. Unfortunately, the Blue Jays have also gone 8-4, so the Yankees haven’t made up a single game and still trail the Blue Jays by one game in the loss column.
I understand the Blue Jays are a magical run and have rarely lost since the trade deadline, but this is out of control. Every time I check the Blue Jays score I expect to see them having scored 10 runs and am shocked when they don’t.

Do you believe this run is happening?

Dakers: It has been a fun month and a half. The Jays have been good all season, but their record has been far short of their Pythagorean Record all season, so we hoped that, at some point they, there would be a correction. Well, we got it.

When you look at the team, you do wonder if they will ever lose again, but no matter how good the team, slumps happen. The nice part is, no one guy has to carry the team. In the past, if Bautista and Encarnacion were to slump, we wouldn’t win. Now Donaldson or Tulowitzki or even Chris Colabello can take up the slack.

Adding Price, Tulowitzki, Revere, Hawkins and Lowe added some life to the team, made the team think that they can win every game and well as filling the weak spots on the team. Jose Reyes’ defense was not good enough, he showed little range and had this ability to make an error at the worst possible moment. Tulowitzki’s bat hasn’t been what we hoped, but it’s nice to have a shortstop with real range. And Ben Revere is much better defensively than Chris Colabello in left. David Price gives us the Ace we really needed. And adding Lowe and Hawkins to the pen has given us a nice deep pen.

Keefe: Does Josh Donaldson ever get out? He is hitting .307/.374/.592 this season with 37 home runs and 115 RBIs, but since July 29, he’s hitting .363/.434/.747 with 13 home runs and 47 RBIs in 38 games. He’s slugging .747! That’s insane. What’s even more insane is he is making $4.3 million this season. Stephen Drew is making $5 million.

I have been tweeting at Donaldson and Jose Bautista to remind them the bars in New York City stay open until a 4 a.m. in hopes that they will go on a bender this weekend and not perform well against the Yankees. Maybe they will listen.

What are you going to send Billy Beane to thank him for trading Donaldson to the Blue Jays?

Dakers: He can have my first born, or my right arm or really anything he wants. I have no idea what Beane was thinking. When you have one of the best players in the game, who is still under team control for several more seasons, you don’t trade him. I’ve always thought the way to build a team is to find those guys who are among the best in the game and build around them.

I liked Brett Lawrie, good player, Canadian, fun to watch on defense, but he’ll never be close to as good as Josh. The pitchers we gave up don’t look to be much better than back of the rotation types, so I really don’t understand where Beane thought he was getting fair value for Donaldson.

Add in that Donaldson seem to have the equal intensity to Jose Bautista (something I didn’t think was possible) he’s really helped give the team a “nothing short of winning is acceptable” attitude.

Keefe: The last time R.A. Dickey lost was on July 9 despite giving up two earned runs in seven innings. Since then he is 7-0 with a 2.68 ERA in 11 starts and the Blue Jays are 10-1 in those starts.
It seems like Dickey is finally pitching like the ace the Blue Jays thought he would be even though he no longer needs to be that guy with David Price in the rotation.

Are you impressed with R.A. Dickey this season?

Dakers: He’s had an up and down time of it. In his wins, he’s had an ERA of 2.39, in his losses his ERA is over 6. He seems to be very good or very bad, and there is little in between. He’s followed the same pattern in each of his 3 seasons as a Blue Jay, a poor first half (this year 3-10 with a 4.87 ERA and a good second half (7-0 with a 2.68 ERA).

I came into the season thinking that there was no way the Jays pick up his $12 million option for next season, figuring that, at 41, he’ll be reaching the age that even knuckleball pitchers have a hard time providing value. But if he continues to pitch like this, and we have a bit of a playoff run, they might prove me wrong.

Keefe: Of course Marcus Stroman is coming back to the Blue Jays’ rotation in time to face the Yankees. Why wouldn’t he?

What do you expect out of Stroman?

Dakers: I’m cautiously hopeful. I really didn’t expect him back this yeah but Stroman is someone you should never bet against. He’s got such a strong work ethic. I do imagine he could have a couple of rough starts, he’s only had two rehab starts (well in real games, he had some simulated games too), one very good, one not so good. In a perfect world, I’d like to see him get a couple more rehab starts, but then the minor league seasons are ending (and there isn’t all that much major league season left) so he gets thrown out there quicker than we would like.

The good news is that it was a knee injury, so he kept his throwing arm in shape all along. He’s been throwing hard in this rehab starts. I think, by playoff time, he’ll be the Marcus Stroman we saw last season. It is just a question of how quickly he gets there.

Keefe: If the Blue Jays win the AL East, what is your ALDS rotation?

For me it would be Price, Dickey, hopefully Stroman and Buehrle. If Stroman doesn’t prove ready, then move Buehrle up and put Marco Estrada in the 4-spot.

Keefe: And if they have to play in the one-game playoff, I’m guessing you’re going with David Price. But let’s say he’s unavailable, who do you turn to?

Dakers: If Dickey keeps pitching the way he is right now, it would have to be him. He’s averaged over 7 innings a start, his last three times out there, and has an ERA of just 2.08. But then, Marcus Stroman has a month to show that he’s as good as last year, if he can do that, it the job might be his.

But, I think he idea of trading for Price as to have him make a one-game playoff start. I’d hope they will make sure that he is ready for the game.

Jealous of the Blue Jays’ Power

The Blue Jays’ lineup is what the Yankees’ lineup once was and the middle of the order is going to be hard to navigate through this season.

Last week it snowed in New York and this Monday, the Yankees are opening the season in the Bronx against the Blue Jays. It would make more sense to probably play this three-game series in Toronto where there is a dome, but for the first time in forever there is some good weather in the forecast for Opening Day at the Stadium. Either way, baseball is back and that’s all that matters.

With the Yankees and Blue Jays opening the season in the Bronx, I did an email exchange with Tom Dakers of Bluebird Banter to talk about the Blue Jays’ powerful 3-4 combination, the new additions of Russell Martin and Josh Donaldson to the lineup and the state of the Blue Jays’ rotation with Marcus Stroman out for the season.

Keefe: It seems like for a while now it’s been common for preseason predictions to say this is the Blue Jays’ season. And once again that’s the case. The Blue Jays might have the best offense in the league. With a heart of the order that includes Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and Josh Donaldson, it’s going to be a nightmare for any pitcher to navigate through that every game and that’s not including Jose Reyes at the top of the order or the pesky and former Yankee Russell Martin, who seems to get the biggest of hits.

How excited are you for this Blue Jays lineup?

Dakers: Every spring for the past several years, we thought that the offense was going to be a “world beater”-type offense. A team that would lead the league in scoring. And each year, due to injuries and players not living up to their potential, we ended up with a good, but not great offense.

This year, we are going to have that great offense. One through five, we are better than anyone in the AL. With Donaldson taking the spot of the always-promising, but never-quite-living-up-to-that-promise Brett Lawrie, we should be so much better. Russell Martin’s ability to take a walk won’t hurt. Six through nine in the order doesn’t strike the same amount of fear in opposing teams, but I think they will be better than most imagine.

I think Michael Saunders and Justin Smoak will be helped a bunch by moving from the rather large Safeco Field to the far more offensive friendly Rogers Centre. And I think rookies Dalton Pompey and Devon Travis will do their part to get us back up to the top of the order again, quickly. I’d be very surprised if we aren’t in the Top 2 or 3 in runs scored this year.

Keefe: The Yankees haven’t had a truly formidable 3-4 combination since 2009-2010 when Mark Teixeira and A-Rod were still productive and healthy and could be counted on for their usual power numbers. The Blue Jays have 3-4 combination that every team in the league envies and dreams of in Jose Bautista and Ediwn Encarnacion and each time they don’t hit the ball a mile in an at-bat it’s a sigh of relief. It seems like both of them get their best swings in against the Yankees and both of them seem to be good for a couple of home runs each series against the Yankees.

I miss the days of having steady and reliable production from the middle of the order. How much fun is it to watch those two every day? (I ask because I forget what it’s like.)

Dakers: It’s pretty good. We know that, barring injury, we have 30-plus home runs coming from both Bautista and Encarnacion. If we can get guys on base in front of them, they should both have 100 RBIs easy. This year, for an added bonus, we have Josh Donaldson following them. Donaldson, moving from Oakland to Toronto, might end up hitting the most home runs of the three.

As a Blue Jays fan, I’ve been blessed with getting to watch some great 3-4 hitters over the years. We’ve had Carlos Delgado-Shawn Green, Delgado-Vernon Wells and George Bell and Jesse Barfield, but I think we might end up looking back Bautista and Encarnacion as the best 3-4 hitters in team history.

Keefe: On the other side of the ball, the Blue Jays aren’t set up as nicely. The devastating torn ACL to Marcus Stroman, leaves the Blue Jays without a front-end starter. They still have R.A. Dickey, Mark Buehrle, and Drew Hutchison, which is better than the.

Aside from the Roy Halladay years, the Blue Jays have lacked a true ace in recent years. Maybe Dickey was supposed to be that when he went to Toronto from the Mets before the 2013 season, but he hasn’t been able to continue his 2010-2012 success over the last two years in the AL.

Does the Blue Jays’ pitching worry you?

Dakers: As the pitching sits, on Opening Day, I think we are OK. Many are picking Drew Hutchison to have a breakout season. Mark Buehrle and R.A. Dickey keep giving us 200-inning seasons. And Aaron Sanchez and Daniel Norris have tons of potential and look ready to deliver on that potential. The problem really is that, with Marcus out, forcing both Sanchez and Norris into the rotation, we are paper thin at the position. If one of the starting five were to be injured for any length of time, we would be left with hoping someone like Johan Santana or Randy Wolf can remember how to get guys out or be treated to the likes of Liam Hendriks or Marco Estrada.

Now, we can live with the odd spot start from any of those guys, but multiple starts from anyone one of them could really derail our season. So, Jays fans have to hope for something that we never seem to get, the baseball gods to bless our rotation with health. Maybe this will be the season it happens.

Keefe: Last year, when we did an email exchange for the first Yankees-Blue Jays series in April, you said you weren’t a fan of the Dickey trade and it didn’t work out, but that you were hoping he could be a good member of the rotation.

What are your feelings on Dickey after two years of watching him with the Blue Jays?

Dakers: The good part about Dickey is he takes the ball every five days and will give us six decent innings. Not great innings, but he usually will keep the team in the game. This year, with our offense, that should be enough. But, if you are expecting him to be the guy that outduels the opposition’s ace, it’s not going to happen.

If you have an understanding of what he can give you, 200 of slightly above average starting pitching innings, well, there is a value to that. Unfortunately, the Jays traded for (and gave up pieces that should have got them) the NL Cy Young winner, and what they got was an innings eater and someone that’s OK, but is definitely not ace material.

Keefe: The Blue Jays won 83 games last year, but haven’t finished higher than third place since 2006 and haven’t made the playoffs since 1993. They made what seemed to be a franchise-changing trade with the Marlins two years ago and that didn’t work out. Now they have signed Russell Martin and traded for Josh Donaldson.

The AL East is wide open with no clear favorite this season. You could make a case for any team other than the Rays to win the division this year and every team other than the Rays could win it.

What are your expectations for the Blue Jays this season?

Dakers: I expect them to contend. I think they can be win around 89-90 games, and in a fairly weak-looking AL East, that should be enough to contend. I think their offense is a couple of notches better than last year, I think the team defense is much improved and I think the pitching staff can be better (in large part because I think that Russell Martin is a far better defensive catcher and massively better at framing pitches than Dioner Navarro was).

What they need is health and lots of it. They aren’t deep at any position on the diamond, so an injury or two might have us using Munenori Kawasaki far more than any of us would want, yet again. I mean, I don’t want to knock Munenori, he’s a great guy and a cult favorite in Toronto, and if you are going to have to use a replacement level player, it might as well be a very entertaining one. But if he ends up getting 250 plate appearances again this year, it will be tough to contend.

It’s Been a While Since Yankees Worried About Blue Jays

The Blue Jays are back to being relevant and are now another team the Yankees have to worry about in the postseason race.

The Yankees had to get off to a hot start to begin the “second half” and after going 6-1 (it could have and should have been 7-0 if Joe Girardi wanted it to be) against the Reds and Rangers, they are back in the division race and lead the race for the second wild card. I was strongly against the addition of a second wild card, but I might have to rethink that if it’s the only way for the Yankees to get in the postseason this year. Even with their recent run, the Yankees still have the Blue Jays right on their heels.

With the Yankees and Blue Jays meeting this weekend in the Bronx, I did an email exchange with Tom Dakers of Bluebird Banter to talk about the Blue Jays being back in playoff contention, how they have dealt with the injuries to their lineup and if they should try to deal for David Price.

Keefe: I can’t remember the last time the Blue Jays were this involved in the playoff race at this point in the season. I kind of remember them hanging by a thread late in the 2008 when the Yankees’ season was over and I was hoping that my some sort of miracle they would go on a run and prevent the Red Sox from reaching the playoffs. Unfortunately it didn’t happen. But they were barely in the race. This year they are in prime position to reach the playoffs for the first time since 1993 with 59 games still left, trailing by 3 in the division and tied with the Yankees as of Friday morning for the second wild-card spot.

This would be quite the story if I wasn’t a Yankees fan and didn’t need the Blue Jays to fall apart, so that the Yankees’ path to the postseason would be easier. But I am a Yankees fan and do need your Blue Jays out of the race.

However, since the Blue Jays are part of this now three-team race for the division and five-team race (right now) for the second wild card, it means we have a meaningfuk Yankees-Blue Jays series (for both teams) in July and will likely have a meaningful series between the two in August and September.

What’s it been like to have the Blue Jays back in contention and how do you feel about their postseason chances?

Dakers: Oh it has been good, depending on the moment. Three wins in a row over the Red Sox felt good. Blue Jays fans, on the whole, seem to be pessimists, but 21 years since the last World Series will do that to a fanbase.

How I feel about their playoff chances changes with by the hour. Over the last month, it has been pretty tough, losing your 4, 5 and 6 hitters would be tough for any team. But, as we get closer to their return, you get the feeling the team could go on a run and keep in it right to the end. It would help if the Orioles would lose occasionally, but I do feel good our chances.

Keefe: Eighty percent of the Yankees’ Opening Day rotation is on the disabled list, Mark Teixeira is injured again (shocker!) and Carlos Beltran still can’t play in the field. The Yankees have had been banged up, but so have the Blue Jays with Edwin Encarnacion, Brett Lawrie and Adam Lind all on the DL.

On Thursday against the Red Sox, Dioner Navarro (.266/.308/.380) hit fourth for the Blue Jays, Dan Johnson hit fifth (.227/.367/.318), Munenori Kawasaki hit sixth (.272/.325/.316), Juan Francisco hit seventh (.242/.315/.407), Ryan Goins hit eighth (.181/.224/.278) and Anthony Gose hit ninth (.237/.338/.282). That looks like a lot of the lineups Joe Girardi has been forced to put together this year because of injuries, but somehow, the Blue Jays not only won, they scored seven runs with that lineup. (The Yankees wouldn’t have scored since they usually score two runs with their full lineup.)

How have the Blue Jays managed to stay afloat with the injuries to their lineup and managed to score runs with some of the names they are putting out there?

Dakers: Well, really they haven’t been staying afloat. On June 6, we were 38-24, sitting in first play, 6 games up on the pack. Since then we’ve put up a 16-25 record, dropping to 3 games back, but then everyone in the batting order has either been on the DL or just been banged up enough that they couldn’t hit, but things are getting better. It has been very tough scoring runs.

Back in May, with everyone healthy we were scoring 5.5 runs a game. This month it is 3.9 runs per game. You wouldn’t expect much better with Encarnacion, Lind, Lawrie, Jose Bautista and Colby Rasmus all missing time with various injuries. Even the players they picked up to fill in have been getting hurt. Cole Gillespie was picked off waivers, play one game and then went on the DL. Nolan Reimold got into 4 games, after we claimed him, before he ended up on the DL. It hasn’t helped that the few that haven’t been hurt have been slumping.

Thankfully, it looks like the offense is turning around and next week should see the return of most Encarnacion, Lind, Reimold and Lawrie. Their return should give the team a lift.

Keefe: The Blue Jays are considered to be long shots to land David Price, but as long as there is chance that’s something I would have to think you are at least remotely excited about. It doesn’t seem like the Yankees have enough in their farm system to trade for Price, but it is odd to see the Rays willing to at least consider moving him within the division.

No matter which team Price ends up with (if he does end up getting traded), he will instantly bolster that rotation and make that team either primed for a playoff run or have them set up nicely for the division series if they’re already playoff bound.

How badly do you want Price, if at all, and what you be willing to give up for him

Dakers: Honestly, of course, I like him, but I wouldn’t want to give up what it would take to get him. Our minor league system isn’t as deep in prospects as it was a couple of years ago. Any deal for Price would have to include Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez and/or Dalton Pompey our Top 3 prospects.

Stroman has been part of our rotation for the last month or so and he’s been nothing less than brilliant. He took a no-hitter into the seventh inning against the Red Sox in his start yesterday. I really wouldn’t want to lose him. Aaron Sanchez came up this week to help out in the bullpen, he pitched two clean innings in his first appearance. I would like us to keep both of them. Dalton Pompey is a center fielder, with speed, defense, knows how to get on base and has found some power this season in Double-A. And he would be a hometown boy, he was born just a few miles from Toronto. Many think the team considers him untouchable in trades.

Without at least two of those three we don’t get Price and I hope the team isn’t willing to pay that much.

Tag: Marcus Stroman

A Seven-Game Yankees-Blue Jays Series for the Division

Jealous of the Blue Jays’ Power

It’s Been a While Since Yankees Worried About Blue Jays