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Tag: Justin Verlander

Blogs • Yankees

Jun 22, 2015

Alex Rodriguez and the 3,000th Hit Ball

If I had caught A-Rod’s 3,000th hit, I would have returned it. Why? Because what am I going to do with A-Rod’s 3,000th hit? Put it on my mantle as if it’s my 3,000th hit?

Alex Rodriguez

I was fortunate to be at Yankee Stadium on Aug. 4, 2007 for Alex Rodriguez’s 500th home run, at Yankees Stadium on Aug. 4, 2010 for his 600th home run, at Fenway Park on May 1, 2015 for his 660th home run and at Yankee Stadium on May 7, 2015 for his 661st home run. So when I decided to not go to the Stadium on Friday night with A-Rod’s next chance at reaching 3,000 career hits, I watched from home for history to be made.

A-Rod’s first-inning solo home run off Justin Verlander made him the 28th player in baseball history with 3,000 hits, doing it in the best way possible, the way Derek Jeter did nearly four years ago. But looking back on the moment, A-Rod would have been better off with a seeing-eye single between short and third or a broken-bat bloop over the the first baseman’s head or a swinging bunt down the the third-base line because hitting a home run where A-Rod hit it was the worst imaginable result.

If I had caught A-Rod’s 3,000th hit, I would have returned it. Why? Because what am I going to do with A-Rod’s 3,000th hit? Put it on my mantle as if it’s my 3,000th hit? Show off A-Rod’s ball like I achieved something by being lucky enough to have it land in my hands? I would return it to A-Rod, after shaking the legend’s hand and asking him to join my Central Park Softball League team upon retirement. But before that I would hand over a list of demands to the Yankees front office:

1. I want to take batting practice with the team at the next home game, shag fly balls and throw a bullpen session. I would take jersey number 86 (Sidney Crosby/Patrick Kane style) since all of the single-digit numbers are retired and Masahiro Tanaka wears 19.

2. I want Legends season tickets. Yes, I love and enjoy sitting in 203, but sitting between the bases for free every game would be more enjoyable.

3. I want a night of beer and baseball storytelling with Ken Singleton, David Cone and Paul O’Neill.

4. I want Stephen Drew designated for assignment. The Yankees have proved they aren’t going to go with my plan of moving Drew back to shortstop, playing either Jose Pirela or Rob Refsnyder at second and benching Didi Gregorius, so the only move is to DFA Drew.

5. I want to trade Nathan Eovaldi and Garrett Jones back to the Marlins for David Phelps and Martin Prado.

Those would be my demands, and once they are met, then I would gladly give A-Rod his ball. If he wants to throw some cash my way, or let me join his entourage (which would likely be just me), I wouldn’t say no. But unfortunately, for me, and more unfortunately for A-Rod and the Yankees, I didn’t catch A-Rod’s 3,000th hit.

Of all the people in the world, Zack Hample (known as “Foul Ball Guy”) would be everyone’s last pick to catch a meaningful home run. A 37-year-old baseball collector, who still brings his glove to games, has made a life out of catching and collecting everything from batting practice balls to foul balls to balls ticketed for a kid’s hands that he has stepped in front of and taken. So of course A-Rod’s 3,000th hit would be a home run and of course out of all the hands it could have landed in at Yankee Stadium, it landed in Hample’s, who was supposedly in the wrong seats, waiting there with his glove like a Little Leaguer taking in big league action, all while wearing a hat with the MLB logo on it.

Hample has said he has no plans to give the ball to A-Rod, because in his words, “It’s kind of like, well, I don’t like you and I have something you want and you can’t have it. I wanted you to not take steroids and be the greatest of all time and you disappointed me.”

Those are real-life words from Hample, who apparently has the mentality of so many nerd beat writers and reporters that feel lied to and disrespected because a baseball player and entertainer that they don’t know outside of asking him questions with a microphone in his face used performance-enhancing drugs. Hample, like those with Hall of Fame vote, feel as though A-Rod owed it to them (as if he owes them anything) to not make the choices in his baseball career he has made, which is an opinion so insane I can’t even wrap my head around it. How dare a baseball player who once signed a 10-year, $252 million contract and opted out of it to sign a 10-year, $275 million contract let everyone down. We should all expect more out of someone who made $197,530.86 per game for two years (2009 and 2010) to play baseball.

Now Hample is doing every TV and radio interview he can, thinking he is the celebrity in the situation and believing he is the one who achieved 3,000 hits with an opposite-field home run rather than a grown man wearing a glove at an MLB game, who happened to be in the right place (which was actually the wrong place for his ticket stub) at the right time. So the “baseball collector” who is holding A-Rod’s 3,000th hit hostage for either very strange (he’s 37 and collects baseballs), very odd (he thinks A-Rod should have not disappointed him personally) or very scummy (he wants a payday from the Yankees since collecting baseballs probably isn’t keeping the power on) reasons.

Maybe Hample will continue to use someone else’s personal achievement as his own crowning moment or maybe he will ultimately decide to return it to A-Rod and the Yankees once their price tag grows high enough for him. Either way, now on it’s third day, this charade has gone on for too long and Hample is the one everyone should be disappointed in.

 

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Blogs • Email Exchanges • Yankees

Apr 20, 2015

The Shane Greene Trade Has Been an Atrocity

The Yankees picked up a much-needed sweep of the Rays over the weekend to get back to .500 and showed some consistency for the first time this season. Thanks to A-Rod’s impressive start to the

Shane Greene

The Yankees picked up a much-needed sweep of the Rays over the weekend to get back to .500 and showed some consistency for the first time this season. Thanks to A-Rod’s impressive start to the season and the zeroes put up by the back end of the bullpen, the Yankees are 6-6, but have played bad enough to be much worse. Things aren’t going to get any easier on this 10-game road trip with the next stop being Detroit where the Tigers have gotten off to the best start in the league.

With the Yankees and Tigers meeting for the first time this season, I did an email exchange with Rob Rogacki of Bless You Boys to talk about David Price’s impending free agency and future, the three-team trade with the Yankees that brought Shane Greene to Detroit and the end of the Austin Jackson era with last season’s trade to the Mariners.

Keefe: David Price has allowed one earned run in 22 1/3 innings over three starts. Incredibly, he has only won one of those three starts because of a lack of run support, but at age 29 (he’ll be 30 in August), Price is off to his best start in any season. Coincidentally, he is a free agent at the end of the season.

I have long wanted Price on the Yankees and it seems like he is following the CC Sabathia 2008 blueprint of having a career year in a contract year and with the money Max Scherzer (who is one year older than Price) got from the Nationals (seven years, $210 million) this offseason, Price is easily going to match that number and likely exceed it. Hopefully, it’s the Yankees giving him that offer.

What do you think happens with Price after 2015? What offer do you want the Tigers to make him?

Rogacki: There were whispers about the Tigers and Price negotiating a long-term extension during spring training, but those voices have all but died, and the two sides are reportedly nowhere close to an agreement. The Tigers haven’t issued a press release like they did with Max Scherzer last season, which leads me to believe that there is hope that he could end up back in Detroit in 2016. Price seems to be much more comfortable with the Tigers this year, and has made fast friends with rotation stalwart Justin Verlander. If Price does not re-sign with the Tigers, it will probably be because of money, not a desire to leave the organization.

I cringe at the thought of giving a 30-year-old starter the kind of contract that Scherzer got, but I think that this is the bare minimum it will take to retain Price. The lefthander checks off all the boxes you want in an ace, and his game should age as well as one could expect out of a pitcher in today’s era. I think a lot of Tigers fans were more amicable to the idea of extending Price over Scherzer, and I have a hard time imagining that the Tigers won’t put together a serious offer this offseason.

Keefe: Miguel Cabrera is off to another MVP-candidate start to the season, which is to be expected from the best hitter in the world. It’s been just over a year since he signed the 10-year, $292 million deal with the Tigers and while it seemed like too long and too much money for a player at his age with his build with his future projection, I loved the deal.

Sure, people are going to complain about it because people complain about every deal in every sport, so it didn’t surprise me that people had an issue with overpaying the back-to-back AL MVP for his 30s. Like I always say with the Yankees, “It’s not my money,” and it can keep a player like Cabrera on your roster for the rest of his prime, then worry about his later years when they come.

What were your thoughts on the Cabrera deal?

Rogacki: While the Tigers have one of the higher payrolls in the game, their budget is still a step or two below the eye-popping numbers that the Yankees and Dodgers are paying out, and $30 million per year for an aging hitter — even one as good as Cabrera — is going to put a strain on their budget going forward. They would have more roster and financial flexibility without Cabrera, especially in the later parts of the decade.

That said, I love that the Tigers went out of their way to retain Cabrera, who is well on his way to Cooperstown (and the requisite statue at Comerica Park that comes along with it). Cabrera is one of the best hitters in MLB history and a joy to watch everyday, and his playful personality makes him all the more entertaining for Tigers fans and opponents alike. Hall of Fame players generally stay very productive well into their 30s, and Cabrera has definitely fit into that mold so far throughout his career.

Keefe: I miss Shane Greene. A 2009 15th-round draft pick, he finally reached the majors last year and struck out 81 in 78 2/3 innings. He looked like he might be a future staple of the rotation and maybe one of the first reliable homegrown starters the Yankees have produced with Brian Cashman as general manager. Instead, he was traded to the Tigers in a three-team deal with the Diamondbacks that brought back Didi Gregorius in return.

Gregorius has been awful through his first 12 games as a Yankee. He is hitting .189/.225/.189 without an extra-base hit, several baserunning blunders and for all we heard about his exceptional Gold Glove-caliber fielding, he hasn’t made a play yet that 40-year-old Derek Jeter couldn’t make.

Is there any chance we can redo that trade? What are your thoughts about Greene and his 3-0 start?

Rogacki: I have been a fan of the trade that brought Greene to Detroit from the start. I was very impressed with his two performances against the Tigers last season, and after going back to watch a few more of his outings during the offseason, my optimism had not waned one bit. Greene pounded the lower half of the strike zone and showed flashes of a developing changeup, one that has served him very well throughout his first three starts in 2015. Greene has an underrated cutter and changeup, and has also started elevating his four-seam fastball in two-strike counts.

This trade isn’t going to look this lopsided for long. Greene is due to regress from his microscopic ERA, and Gregorius’ batted ball profile indicates that he has been somewhat unlucky early on in 2015. His above average defense will start to shine through at some point. I think the Tigers are clear winners in this trade simply because they gave up the least to get what looks to be a mid-rotation starter in Greene, but I think the move was a necessary one for the Yankees (though not the splashy one their fanbase would have liked).

Keefe: Last year at the trade deadline, the Tigers traded Austin Jackson to the Mariners in the three-team deal that landed them David Price. Jackson, another former Yankee who was traded to the Tigers for Curtis Granderson before the 2010 season, never really lived up to the expectations that were placed on him, struck out a lot and struggled to get on base the last few years.

I remember being upset that he wouldn’t reach the majors with the Yankees after he was traded and wondered why they would want to give away a 21-year-old future center fielder for an aging one. But looking back on it, I would have to say both teams came out even on that aspect of the trade and we were able to get rid of Phil Coke and you were able to get Max Scherzer, so it was a win-win all around.

What were your thoughts when the Tigers traded Jackson to the Mariners?

Rogacki: While Jackson struggled for long stretches with the Tigers, his first few seasons made Tigers fans all but forget about Granderson. Jackson was an elite defender in center field during his first four years in Detroit, ranking among the very best centerfielders in baseball in nearly every advanced defensive metric in the book. His penchant for striking out was frustrating at times, but he was an above average leadoff hitter whose value far outweighed his cost to the organization. Jackson was a fan favorite, and the standing ovation he got when he was removed from a game after being traded was one of the most surreal baseball moments I have ever seen.

Personally, I was ecstatic for the deal. It’s not every day that you land an elite talent like Price, and while the cost was steep (Jackson and cost-controlled Drew Smyly were both shipped out), the chance to see Price pitch in the Olde English D was exciting. I have continued to follow both former Tigers with their new teams, and am surprised at how much Jackson has struggled with the Mariners. I think the trade will be unfairly judged on whether the Tigers win a World Series this year, but I think the move was the right one to make for this team.

Keefe: The Tigers are off to a hot 10-2 start in a year in which I thought they would have a down year. They lost Max Scherzer to free agency, Justin Verlander has yet to pitch and I didn’t think their offense was as deep as it had been in years past. But the Tigers have kept on rolling despite the roster turnover and despite the question marks in the bullpen. It seems as though Dave Dombrowski has done it again in what was supposed a deep and hard-to-win AL Central.

What were your expectations for the team entering the season and have they changed after this 10-2 start?

Rogacki: Expectations for this team have definitely skyrocketed after such a strong start to the season. The last two times the Tigers started a season off this fast, they won the World Series, a fact that is not lost on Tigers fans. The starting pitching has been the biggest surprise, both for positive and negative reasons. I already touched on Greene’s hot start, but Alfredo Simon is coming off the best start of his career (and will start tonight’s opening game). Anibal Sanchez, on the other hand, has already allowed more home runs this season than he did in all of 2014. The Tigers definitely need an effective Verlander if they are going to reach the playoffs, but they have been able to withstand his absence so far.

There have been some surprising contributions from the offense as well, but overall I thought that this unit had the potential to be one of the very best in baseball. Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez might be the best one-two punch in baseball, and J.D. Martinez was coming off a red-hot spring training. Yoenis Cespedes was hitting like his usual self prior to last season’s trade to Boston, and I was very bullish on Nick Castellanos taking a step forward in season two. All of those things have happened so far, and more. Jose Iglesias is translating one of the best contact rates in baseball into a not-gonna-stay-that-way .436 batting average, and Anthony Gose and Rajai Davis have become an effective platoon at the top of the order. This lineup is deeper than many people expected, and will make life difficult for many a pitcher in 2015.

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Blogs • Opening Day • Yankees

Apr 1, 2015

The Season of Optimism for the Yankees

The only way to think about the 2015 Yankees is positively or it’s going to be a long summer, which makes it easier to do over/unders for the season.

Alex Rodriguez

I’m officially declaring the 2015 Yankees season as the Season of Optimism. Right now there are so many question marks and unknowns surrounding this team at every position other than left field (Brett Gardner), center field (Jacoby Ellsbury) and third base (Chase Headley).

Every starter in the rotation is either a health or performance concern. First base, second base, shortstop, right field and designated hitter are the same. The bullpen is the one clear strength that no one should worry about, but even there, a closer hasn’t been named and aside from Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller, none of the other hard-throwing relievers have pitched for the Yankees before. Knowing all of that, the only thing to be about this team is optimistic because if you’re not then you might in for a long season. How long this optimism will last? Well, I guess that depends on the health of Masahiro Tanaka’s right elbow and Michael Pineda’s right shoulder.

This optimism has led me to create some over/unders for the 2015 Yankees and for most of the numbers I created, my picks for each are about being as positive as possible.

CC Sabathia – 4.50 ERA
Did I set the ERA for a pitcher making $23 million this season (and $25 million in 2016 and possibly 2017) at the equivalent of a quality start? Yes. Yes, I did. That’s a big drop off from the pitcher who averaged 18 wins and a 3.22 ERA per season in his first four years with the Yankees (2009-2012).

Just being healthy isn’t going to cut it for Sabathia. He needs to be healthy and good. Not great like he once was, just good and that means better than he was in 2013 and 2014. His numbers this spring have been bad and the three home runs allowed in 4 2/3 innings is reminiscent of what made him bad in 2013 and 2014. With this offense, he’s not going to rack up the wins despite pitching poorly like Randy Johnson did in 2006 when he won 17 games with a 5.00 ERA. Sabathia is going to need to find a way to get outs without overpowering hitters the way his former teammate Andy Pettitte and supposed best friend Cliff Lee were able to do. (Let’s hope he talked to them.) Given the health concerns of Tanaka and Pined every pitch they throw, Sabathia is going to need to be relied on. That makes me uncomfortable, but … optimism! Under.

Mark Teixeira – .245 AVG.
Mark Teixeira hit .216 last season. .216! The year before coming to the Yankees he hit .308. In his first season with the Yankees, he hit .292. I thought it was bad when he dropped to .256 in 2010 and started transforming into Jason Giambi 2.0 with only the short porch in right on his mind and no care for ever attempting to the hit the ball the other way as a left-handed hitter. But now we’re way past being Jason Giambi 2.0 and Teixeira is looking more like Adam Dunn or Mark Reynolds with less power.

For Teixeira to hit over .245, he will have to remain healthy, not miss games with wrist or other varying injuries, be willing to hit the ball to the left side of the field when he’s hitting left-handed and not think that he can take any pitcher over the 314 FT. sign in right field. There’s a better chance that the Yankees replicate their 1998 season than there is that Teixeira does those things. Under.

Jacoby Ellsbury – 16.5 HOME RUNS
I used to talk about Brady Anderson and ask which one of these doesn’t belong: 21, 13, 12, 16, 50, 18, 18, 24, 19, 8? Those are Anderson’s home run totals for his full seasons in the majors and that 50 from 1996 looks more out of place than the Martini Bar inside Yankee Stadium.

When it comes to Ellsbury, you can ask the same question about which of these doesn’t belong: 9, 8, 32, 9 and 16? I’m not sure how Ellsbury hit .321/.376/.552 with 32 home runs and 105 RBIs to finish second in the AL MVP voting to Justin Verlander, but I really wish he would become that player again. Ellsbury got a pass last year despite having a down year because he was the “best” hitter on a team full of bad hitters. I don’t think that .271/.328/.419 is what the Yankees thought they were going to get for Ellsbury’s 30-year-old season when they gave him seven years and $153 million.

Everyone kept saying that Ellsbury’s swing combined with the short porch would mean at least 20-25 home runs playing 81 games at Yankee Stadium. I’m hoping that 2013 will be Ellsbury’s version of Carlos Beltran’s 2005 or he will become Johnny Damon’s 2006 and 2009. Over.

Brett Gardner – 30 STOLEN BASES
Brett Gardner’s baserunning career has been a disappointment. After stealing 47 and 49 bases in 2010 and 2011 respectively, he only stole 24 in 2013 and 21 in 2014. He’s supposed to be the cheaper version of Jacoby Ellsbury and not the power hitter he thinks he became thanks to three nights in Texas last July. Gardner needs to get back to being a threat on the bases and not someone who is scared of every pickoff move in the league. Over.

Alex Rodriguez – 100 GAMES PLAYED
I have big plans for A-Rod. Not the kind of plans that include the 54 home runs and 156 RBIs from 2007. But something better than 2012 when he 18 home runs and 57 RBIs (though I would sign up for that right now). In order for A-Rod to make my plans happen, he’s going to need to stay healthy and play a lot and that means more than 100 games, which he has only done once (2012) in the last four years.

But this is the Season of Optimism and that means thinking A-Rod is going to play a full season and be productive and be everything that every writer from the Daily News and Post didn’t think he would or could be. Over.

Stephen Drew – STILL A YANKEE ON JUNE 1
I like how Brian Cashman was so adamant this spring about how Drew is the Yankees’ starting second baseman no matter what while he said Alex Rodriguez had to earn a spot on the team. Unfortunately, for my DFA Stephen Drew, #GiveRobTheJob and #SayOkToJose campaigns, Stephen Drew has started hitting a little and is now up to .244/.306/.444 this spring.

Drew is going to be a Yankee on Opening Day. He is going to get announced in the starting lineup and jog out to the first-base line, which is something I wished I wouldn’t have to see given that he hit .150/.219/.271 for the Yankees last year.

If Drew doesn’t hit the way he hasn’t most of March and the way he didn’t in 46 games for the Yankees last year and the way he didn’t in 39 games for the Red Sox last year and the way he didn’t in the 2013 postseason, then the Yankees will release him and eat the remaining money of his $5 million. And then we will finally get to see Rob Refsnyder or Jose Pirela play second base, which is what we should have seen all along. The Yankees have been trying to patch up the holes on their sinking boat with players like Drew for the last three years, but at some point you just need a new boat. Rob Refsnyder and Jose Pirela are that new boat. Under.

Chase Headley – .350 OBP
When the Yankees traded for Chase Headley, everyone looked at that .286-31-115 season from 2012 and hoped that he would find that hitting as a Yankee. But it was the Padres’ willingness to trade an impending free agent hitting .229/.296/.355 with cash for just Yangervis Solarte and Rafael De Paula.

What stuck out the most about Headley’s time with the Yankees in 2014 was his .371 on-base percentage, which was 24 points better than his career .347 on-base percentage and close to his 2011 (.374) and 2012 (.376) seasons in San Diego. If Headley can get on base the way he did for 58 games last year, it will make up for the lack of power the Yankees have at third. (Unless their former third baseman and now DH can make up the difference.) Over.

Carlos Beltran – 20.5 HOME RUNS
Carlos Beltran is one year removed from hitting 24 home runs and two years removed from hitting 32. The last time he didn’t hit at least 22 home runs in a full season was when he hit 16 in his first season with the Mets (2005), which could have been him trying to live up to and prove his his $119 million contract since he hit 41 the following year.

The Yankees signed Carlos Beltran 10 offseasons too late, he’s going to turn 38 on April 24 and after his elbow injury last season that kept him from playing the field and from hitting for power and needed surgery on in the offseason, I’m not sure that believing in Beltran is the best use of anyone’s energy. Under.

Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller – 40.5 SAVES
The Yankees still haven’t decided who their closer is and maybe that’s because Joe Girardi has decided to go with no closer and use whichever reliever a particular situation calls for? OK, so there’s no chance of that happening, but I can dream.

It would make the most sense to have Betances and Miller ready for any and all situations and not just save opportunities for one or both of them in order to shorten games for a team whose rotation is shaky past Tanaka and Pineda and is shaky even with them given their health histories.

Taking the over here means the Yankees are winning games. Sure, they’re winning close games, but they’re winning them. Over.

Nathan Eovaldi – 11.5 WINS
This is Nathan Eovaldi’s line from this spring: 13.2 IP, 10 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 14 K, 0.66 ERA, 0.732 WHIP. Eovaldi isn’t going to keep those kind of numbers up since that would translate to the best starting pitching performance in the history of baseball and the best season of any athlete in any sport in the history of sports. Wayne Gretzky’s 92-120-212 season from 1981-82 wouldn’t even be in the same stratosphere. Since Eovaldi isn’t going to go the entire season without walking a batter, it’s time to think more realistically.

Those 14 strikeouts in 13 2/3 innings this spring is what everyone should be looking for from Eovaldi. He has never come close to striking out one hitter per inning in his five seasons in the league and as a hard-throwing starter, it’s a little odd. One Mets fan told me he’s going to be the Yankees’ Mike Pelfrey as someone who throws mid-to-high-90s and doesn’t strike anyone out. But after trading Martin Prado, who was looking to be a vital piece to the 2015 Yankees and David Phelps, who the organization has loved, for Eovaldi, let’s hope they’re right that time with Larry Rothschild can get the most out of his untapped potential. Over.

Michael Pineda – 160 INNINGS PITCHED
In the last three years, Michael Pineda has thrown 76 1/3 innings in the majors. But like the Yankees’ other front-end starter, if Pineda doesn’t stay healthy, well, there are a lot of other things to do from April to September other than watch Yankees baseball. Over.

Masahiro Tanaka – 27.5 STARTS
Masahiro Tanaka made 20 starts last season. In Japan, starting in 2013 and going back to 2007, he made 27, 22, 27, 20, 24, 24 and 28 starts (as part of a six-man rotation). So if Tanaka is going to make more than 27.5 starts this season, he’s going to do something he’s only ever done once in his life and he’s going to to do it in the season following a season in which every prominent surgeon had to examine an MRI of his right elbow. Thinking Tanaka is going to pitch the full season is a little overly optimistic, but that’s the only way to be with this team or it’s going to be a long summer. Over.

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Blogs • Email Exchanges • Yankees

Aug 26, 2014

A Similar Situation for Yankees-Tigers Series

The Yankees’ three-game series in Detroit will likely serve as the turning point of their season one way or another after they spent the last week climbing out of their hole.

Stephen Drew

A five-game winning streak has the Yankees miraculously alive in the AL East and on the doorstep for the second wild card. This week’s three-game series in Detroit could put the Yankees in prime position to clinch a playoff berth over the the final 30 games of the year or it could put the Yankees back in the same hole they just spent the past week climbing out of.

With the Yankees and Tigers meeting for the first time in Detroit and the final time this season, I did an email exchange with Rob Rogacki of Bless You Boys to talk about what has happened to the Tigers since the trade deadline, the breakout season from Rick Porcello and the futures of Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer.

Keefe: I saw on Sunday that you tweeted, “Tomorrow, we are all Yankees fans,” with the Yankees playing a makeup game in Kansas City. The Yankees got the job done in Kansas City with an 8-1 win on Monday night and with a Mariners’ loss in Texas, the Yankees now trail the second wild-card spot by just 2.5 games. I know I shouldn’t be excited about the Yankees being in play for the second wild card, but that’s where injuries and an underachieving offense have left me. But your jump on the Yankees bandwagon only lasted a few hours as they now head to Detroit for a three-game series with your Tigers in a series that both teams desperately need to win.

On the day of the trade deadline, everyone sort of penciled in the Tigers and A’s for the ALCS because of their moves to strengthen the already strongest rotations in the league. But over the last four weeks, the Tigers and A’s have played themselves out of running away with their respective divisions and the Tigers aren’t even holding on to a playoff spot right now.

When the Yankees played the Tigers at the beginning of August, they looked like a different offensively and it was almost as if Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez didn’t beat you then no one would. Did the Tigers make one too many moves that actually made them worse since July 31?

Rogacki: I think that the pair of moves the Tigers made at the deadline definitely improved the team, especially given how well David Price has pitched so far. Price has a 2.35 ERA and 2.90 FIP in four starts in a Tigers uniform, but is just 1-1 thanks to a lack of run support. Price tossed a one-hitter against his former club in his last start, but lost 1-0 on an unearned run.

Losing Austin Jackson at the deadline definitely hurt the offense — especially given how he had been hitting in the second half — but the team’s struggles largely fall on the big bats in the lineup. Ian Kinsler had a .515 OPS in the second half prior to the team’s last road trip and scored just eight runs in a month-long span. Miguel Cabrera’s .820 OPS is excellent for most mortals, but far below what the Tigers expect of their $292 million man. Victor Martinez took a little while to recover from an oblique strain that hobbled him in July, but has turned things around with a .992 OPS in August.

The hitters aren’t the only problem, though. Justin Verlander and Anibal Sanchez have both missed starts this month, leading the Tigers to use guys like Robbie Ray and Buck Farmer in the rotation, with left-hander Kyle Lobstein tentatively scheduled to start on Thursday. The team’s lack of starting pitching depth is finally starting to be exposed, but with Verlander already back and Sanchez not far behind, the team looks poised to climb back into the playoff picture.

Keefe: I never understood the hype and attention paid to Rick Porcello as he grew up in the majors over the last five years, but now everyone is seeing why the Tigers have always been so high on him with 14 wins, a 3.10 ERA and a league-leading three shutouts. Porcello has become the front-end starter the Tigers hoped he would when they picked him in the first round in 2007.

What has been the biggest difference in the back-end starter Porcello was in his first five seasons and what he has become in 2014?

Rogacki: Porcello’s big leap actually came in 2013, but largely went unnoticed thanks to an unimpressive 13 wins and a 4.32 ERA. He posted the highest strikeout rate and strikeout-to-walk ratio of his career, resulting in a career-best 3.53 fielding independent pitching (FIP) measure. If that isn’t enough, look at what he did in the second half. From July 1st onward, Porcello was 9-2 with a 3.57 ERA in 14 starts. He held opponents to two runs or fewer in seven of those starts and logged his first complete game in a victory over the White Sox.

This season, Porcello’s strikeout rate has returned to earth, but his walk rate has also dropped. He is holding left-handed hitters to a .673 OPS, by far the best mark of his career. Opponents also have a .215 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) on ground balls against Porcello, well below the league average of .250. Part of this may be to weaker contact induced by Porcello locating his pitches, and part of this may be due to the Tigers’ improved infield defense. Third baseman Nick Castellanos and shortstop Eugenio Suarez have not been very impressive, but Ian Kinsler and Miguel Cabrera have statistically been two of the best defenders in baseball at their respective positions.

Keefe: In 2012, Justin Verlander was virtually as good as he was in his Cy Young an MVP season in 2011. In 2013, his ERA jumped to the mid-3s and his WHIP climbed and while he still had a good year, it wasn’t what we had become used to after his previous two seasons. Now in 2014, at age 31, in the second year of a seven-year, $180 million deal, Verlander has had a lot season.

Verlander has only had one full sub-.500 season in his career (when he led the league in losses with 17 on a bad 2008 Tigers team) and that same year was the only year his ERA was above 3.66 (it was 4.84), but this year he’s on his way to having his second-worst season of his career and his worst in six years.

What has happened to Justin Verlander? Do you just chalk this up as a lost season for him or are you worried about his future and his contract?

Rogacki: There’s always some level of worry when a pitcher gets a contract as long and expensive as the one that the Tigers gave Verlander prior to the 2013 season, but I’m not very concerned about his results in 2014. Verlander had core muscle repair surgery in early January — similar to the surgery Miguel Cabrera had last October —  which seems to have sapped his stamina. He has a 3.67 ERA in innings 1-3 this season, but that figure jumps to 5.33 in innings 4-6 and 8.04 in the seventh inning or later.

Verlander hinted earlier this year that he still doesn’t feel 100 percent after the surgery, something that Cabrera reiterated around the All-Star break. It will be interesting to see how both stars come back in 2015, provided neither runs into any more setbacks along the way.

Keefe: Max Scherzer turned down a reported six-year, $144 million from the Tigers after his Cy Young-winning season, putting his right arm and future financial status on the line every time he throws a baseball. But this season, at 29, Scherzer has followed up his 2013 21-win season with another impressive year and with starting pitching as coveted as it’s ever been, he is likely to blow away the $144 million the Tigers offered him.

If I were Scherzer, I would have taken the guaranteed $144 million knowing that on any pitch at any time, you might never get a chance to make that kind of money again. But as long as he is able to stay healthy for another month (and possibly October if the Tigers get there), his gamble will have paid off.

Is there any chance Scherzer is a Tiger in 2015 and what do you think he will end up getting?

Rogacki: I don’t ever want to doubt what Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski is capable of, but the trade for David Price seems to have all but sealed Scherzer’s fate. The Tigers seem reluctant to offer him a contract longer than six years, while Scherzer appears to be after the biggest payday possible (a safe assumption when you’re talking about a Scott Boras client). If he hits the free agent market, I would not be surprised to see Scherzer become baseball’s second $200 million pitcher, especially considering that he has pitched at an ace level since mid-May of 2012. I would love to see him back with the Tigers next season — he’s as outgoing and goofy as baseball players get — but not at the kind of money he appears to be looking for.

Keefe: As this series starts, the Yankees are 6 games back of the Orioles and 2.5 games back of the second wild card. The Tigers are 1 ½ games back of the Royals and ½ game back of the second wild card. I think I’m safe in assuming that you didn’t expect the Tigers to be going down to the wire for a playoff spot when the season started or after they landed David Price and I know that on July 31 you didn’t think they might be looking at a scenario where they have to play a one-game playoff or one in which they don’t reach the postseason at all.

What are your feelings on the state of the Tigers on Aug. 26 and after their final 33 games, where will they be?

Rogacki: The Tigers definitely aren’t where any of us expected them to be at this point in the season, especially given how good they have looked at stretches this year. That said, I think that the Royals’ recent hot streak will end in the next week or two, and the Tigers will win their fourth consecutive AL Central crown. With 27 of their final 33 games against AL Central opponents — and the other six games at Comerica Park — they have plenty of time to jump ahead of the Royals and get back into the postseason.

But that doesn’t mean we don’t appreciate the help. Nicely done last night, Yanks.

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Blogs • Yankees

Oct 26, 2012

How I Will Remember the 2012 Yankees

The 2012 Yankees will be remembered as a failure. Not because they didn’t win the World Series, but because they didn’t even show up.

How will you remember the 2012 Yankees? It’s a question that’s staring me down like something you have to answer for your senior year high school yearbook.

I’d like to believe in the whole “Win the World Series or the season is a failure” concept, but even I know that is an impossible expectation even if it sounds good and makes the Yankees organization sound good for supposedly living by it. But you can’t win the World Series every year. You can only hope you get to October and then from there get good pitching, some timely hits, a few lucky bounces and avoid the injury bug.

On Tuesday night, I was at a bar with my roommates and Game 4 of the 1996 World Series was on YES. The Yankees trailed 6-0 before Derek Jeter, Bernie Williams, Cecil Fielder and Charlie Hayes were able to make it 6-3 in the sixth. The Yankees tied it up in the eighth on a three-run home run from Jim Leyritz, and the bartender actually changed the channel to NBA preseason basketball in the middle of Leyritz’s at-bat. But as much as I wanted to see that home run off Mark Wohlers for the 593rd time, I also didn’t want to see it. I wanted to be reminded of what October was like when the Yankees were going to find a way to win, but I also didn’t want to be reminded of what October was like when the Yankees were going to find a way to win.

The 2012 Yankees wouldn’t have come back against Denny Neagle. They wouldn’t have even scored against him. The 1996 Yankees lost the first two games at home of the World Series and then had to go to Atlanta, to the home of the best team in baseball over the last two years, and they came out alive. The 2012 Yankees lost the first two games of the ALCS at home against the 88-win Tigers and then had to go to Detroit and try to send the series back to the Bronx. They shouldn’t have even gotten on the plane.

The 2012 Yankees season ended before they made Anibal Sanchez look like Cliff Lee and before Justin Verlander shut them down without his best stuff and before Max Scherzer repeated his 2011 postseason performance against them. The 2012 Yankees season ended when Derek Jeter couldn’t get up from the field and when the Yankees couldn’t win a home game in which they scored four runs in the bottom of the ninth to tie it. Seriously, how do you lose that game? No team in any sport loses a game in which they comeback in improbable fashion at home. Ever. It doesn’t happen. But I guess it’s a lot easier to happen when Nick Swisher 007 is playing right field.

I wasn’t as upset as I should have been when the Yankees lost Game 2 or Game 3 because of how upset I was after Game 1. After Game 1, I left the Stadium in the early hours of Sunday morning, devastated and depressed. I knew the season was over. Even though there was still technically a lot of baseball left to be played, I knew without Jeter and without winning Game 1 following the comeback that the season was over. I went into Phase 1 of the Yankees Elimination Process when Nick Swisher misplayed that ball in right field and it carried over to Sunday before Game 2. Phase 1 is when you know the season is over, but it’s not over yet. You probably experienced Phase 1 after Game 6 in the 2004 ALCS or after Game 3 in the 2006 ALDS or Game 2 of the 2007 ALDS or Game 4 of the 2010 ALCS. Sure things can change, but you know the inevitable isn’t far away.

Depending on when you enter Phase 1, the time between Phase 1 and Phase 2 can do crazy things to your emotions. You start to believe that even with the odds stacked against you that you can come back and the season can be extended. You can talk yourself into a comeback of epic proportions the way I did after Game 3 when I started asking, “Why not us?” to anyone I encountered throughout the day leading up to Game 4 like I was Curt Schilling eight Octobers ago. The time between Phase 1 and Phase 2 is full of false hope and that’s the last thing you need before Phase 2 sets in. Phase 2: The season is actually over.

Phase 2 can’t begin until the final out of the season is made. Even after CC Sabathia got rocked and the Tigers were still scoring runs against the Yankees bullpen in the final innings of Game 4, I was stuck in limbo on the outskirts of Phase 1, but oh so close to Phase 2. Phase 2 is when there are no more outs or innings or games. It’s over and it’s not coming back until April.

Phase 3 is the final phase and the phase I’m currently in. It’s the phase when there hasn’t been a game for a few days, so it feels like the All-Star break. But then there aren’t games for a few more days then a week then two weeks and then you realize there won’t be real, meaningful baseball until April. Usually this phase becomes easier because it is negated by the NHL season, but because Gary Bettman thinks a fourth lockout during his tenure as commissioner is a good idea, Phase 3 and the winter are going to drag on.

How will I remember the 2012 Yankees? As a failure. The 2012 Yankees won’t be remembered as a failure because they didn’t win the World Series. They will be remember as a failure because they didn’t even show up to get to the World Series.

I will remember the 2012 Yankees for the Goof Troop. That’s Alex Rodriguez, Robinson Cano, Mark Teixeira, Nick Swisher and Curtis Granderson. If you don’t think Mark Teixeira belongs in the Goof Troop because he had nine hits in the postseason then you’re lost. He had one extra-base hit, no home runs and zero RBIs. Let me remind you that he makes $23.5 million to be a power-hitting first baseman and a presence in the middle of the lineup. If he wants to be given a free pass for being a singles hitter then maybe he should give back some of his money away and he can hit with Brett Gardner at the bottom of the order. And if you believe that he makes up for Jason Giambi-like transformation with his defense then maybe you missed his defense in the postseason.

But for as bad as Teixeira was power-wise, the other four were a flat-out embarrassment. The only thing you can really do with Cano is chalk it up as the worst slump ever at the worst possible time. He is the “best” hitter on the team and the future and foundation of the lineup. You can only hope some team is willing to take on A-Rod and a small part of his contract. Granderson will likely be back for at least 2013, so you have to hope the eye doctor he recently visited found something related to why he is now a three-pitch strikeout. And Nick Swisher? The next time I want to see Nick Swisher in person is in right field at Yankee Stadium in the bottom of the first inning, playing for another team. If Nick Swisher is a Yankee in 2013, I won’t be going to the Bronx and that’s a promise. And you can’t even laugh and say, “I’m sure the Yankees will be fine without you there” because if you were at the postseason games, you know that they can use every single person in attendance they can get at the Stadium.

The Yankees finally got the starting pitching in the postseason that they needed in 2004 and 2005 and 2006 and 2007 and 2010, but they got the hitting they had in 2011. They had the easiest path to the World Series since 2006 when the Tigers also ended their season, but instead they ended up as the first Yankees team to be swept in a postseason series since the 1980 ALCS. They were a regular-season success and a postseason failure, and they didn’t even put up a fight. But after six months of laying down in the final innings of games (aside from Raul Ibanez’s late-inning heroics in the final week of the regular season and in the postseason), I should have seen it coming. You can only rely on your 40-year-old left-handed designated hitter making $1.1 million so many times. At some point A-Rod ($29 million), Teixeira ($23.5 million), Cano ($14 million), Swisher ($10.25 million) and Granderson ($10 million) have to do something. Anything! Seriously, get a hit with runners in scoring position. One effing hit.

Before the postseason started, I was scared that Bruce Springsteen’s “Land of Hope and Dreams” was going to be forever ruined if the Yankees were eliminated the way that Tinie Tempah’s “Written In the Stars” was last year. But even though this was the most embarrassing postseason performance from them since 2004 (though it’s hard to discount 2006 and 2007), I decided that the 2012 Yankees had ruined enough for me and they couldn’t ruin the theme song for the 2012 postseason too. Instead the song will serve to remind me of what went wrong over the final four games and six days of the season.

Ya leave behind your sorrows
Ya this day at last
Well tomorrow there’ll be sunshine
And all this darkess past

157 days until Opening Day.

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